Ukraine War, 9 May 2023

Hello everybody!

Seems, Pudding & Co KG GesmbH AG SPA tried to ‘celebrate their sacred Victory Day’ with ‘fireworks’ over Ukraine. My first impression: ‘fireworks’ – sure, but not the way they wanted to have it.

MISSILE WAR

It all began early on 7 May, with a volley of S-300s fired in ballistic mode at the Izyum District. One of them hit a park in Balakleya, injuring five people. Around the same time, seven Tu-22M-3s released six Kh-22s at targets in the Mykolaiv area. According to the PSU, one malfunctioned while the five others all missed their targets. No casualties were reported.

During the night from 7 to 8 May, four Tu-22M-3 of the VKS  – underway somewhere near the Cape Tarkhankut in the occupied Crimea – fired a total of eight Kh-22s at Odesa. According to official Ukrainian sources, ‘some of them reached Odesa and certain facilities were hit, but the rest of the missiles did not reach their targets’. What is certain is that one of missiles blew up a depot with humanitarian aid from the Ukrainian Red Cross. One person was reported as killed there, three were wounded. Multiple fires were reported from different places around the Odesa Oblast, but no details released (which is just as good): the most that was mentioned was that one Kh-22 should have hit some ‘recreational area on the Black Sea coast’…. Around the same time, the VKS launched up to seven glide bombs. at least two Russian missiles hit Zaporizhzhya, killing at least one person.

A Tu-95 of the VKS, as seen taking off - though here without carrying any cruise missiles.

Early on 8 May, the Russians released a big stream of 35 or 36 Shahed-131/136s:; 30 of these in the direction of Kyiv. The PSU claimed 35 as shot down (mayor of Kyiv, Vitaliy Kliychko, claimed 36 as shot down). Nevertheless, several buildings around the city were damaged: some by the debris of downed Shaheds, others by air defence fire. Five people were wounded.

As next, around 22.00hrs of 8 May, 8 Kalibrs were launched from warships of the Russian Navy in the Black Sea, while some sources claimed the number of Shahed-131/136s released at Ukraine the last 36 hours with ‘almost 60’. The PSU claimed all 8 Kalibrs as shot down, but as of now, it’s unclear if there was really another big stream of Shaheds and how many of them were shot down.

Kherson was subjected to a total of 46 attacks yesterday, most of these by artillery: the ZSU registered a total of 320 shells and rockets hitting the city: 14 people were wounded, a school, a clinic, and a nursing home were damaged.

This morning, the latest wave came in form of 17 Kh-101, Kh-555, and Kh-55SMs (don’t kill me over designations: just quoting official Ukrainian releases) released by four Tu-95MS over the Caspian Sea, around 04.00hrs. Several Kh-55SM and Kh-101s approached the Kyiv area from north-west. One was shot down over the Bucha District, another over the Fastiv District. Eventually, all the missiles bound for Kyiv were shot down.

One of Russian missiles shot down over the Kyiv area, this morning.

Eight missiles have approached the Dnipro area – and the PSU claimed all eight as shot down. Debris from one of downed missiles hit a home and wounded a woman. Additionally – though ‘as usual’ – Nikopol was heavily shelled (the town is randomly shelled by the Russians almost since February 2022).

Overall, the PSU claimed a total of 9 cruise missiles shot down late in the evening of 8 May, and another 14 early on 9 May: that is 23 out of 25 that were detected. Of these, 14 were claimed by the Central Air Command, and one by the Pivden/South Air Command.

The ZSU countered with its own missile- and artillery barrages, eventually claiming to have hit 19 groups of Russian military personnel, two ammunition depots, and three other targets. On 8 May alone, the Russian occupation authorities of Crimea claimed to have shot down no less than 20 Ukrainian UAVs: ironically, the Keystone Cops in Moscow claimed ‘only’ 15…

What can be concluded about all of this?

I cannot but start with a quote from that ZSU soldier from summer of the last year: ‘we’re lucky they’re that stupid’. Obviously, the Russian armed forces are experiencing massive problems with coordination of different of their branches. At least I wouldn’t be surprised if brilliant generals in Moscow actually run attacks by forces at their own disposal at their own discretion, always in hope of earning themselves Putin’s recognition. Because, had the VKS and VSRF managed to coordinate all of these strikes, and run them at once – at least within 1-2 hours – the PSU would’ve experienced much bigger problems, and there would be lots of damage. The way the Russians conducted these operations, the PSU was able to deal with one threat after the other, and shot down almost anything coming its way.

At operational level, and gauging by results of the last five Russian attempts to strike Kyiv (all five run since 1 may), it appears the air defences in that area have been bolstered to the point where the city is something like ‘reasonably well-protected’ from strikes by ballistic missiles, quasi-ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and Shaheds. Not ‘safe’ (far from that), but reasonably well-protected.

However, this shouldn’t mean the rest of Ukraine is enjoying similar levels of protection: Odesa, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhya remain very exposed. Part of the reason is the lack of SAM-systems like PAC-3, IRIS-T (the second system was delivered by Germany in late April), NASAMs, and Crotale NGs; another part is the fact that yes, Ukraine was forced to return MIM-23 I-HAWKs to Spain because these didn’t work, already back in March (and even repeated repairs didn’t help).

AIR WAR

Poland has completed the delivery of ‘more than 10’ MiG-29s to Ukraine. Earlier, Slovakia handed over all of its 13 MiG-29s.  Not sure if all of these are going to be flown by the PSU: it’s very likely that many are so worn out, they’re at least as likely to end as sources of spares for repairs of Ukrainian MiG-29s.

Not directly related: according to The Telegraph, sometimes earlier this month, a Polish surveillance aircraft underway over the Black Sea was almost shot down by a VKS interceptor that passed within five metres from it.

Ah yes and… because ‘AGM-88 HARM is crap’, and ‘shot down in scores’ - as everybody in Russia and in the social media (in and outside Russia) knows so well, this 9K330 Tor SAM-system (‘SA-15 Gauntlet’) received a direct hit by one released by PSU’s fighter jets:

BAKHMUT

Along latest reports, on 8 May – amid a major regrouping of the Wagner and VDV in the ruins of the town, and also while still rotating its own units in and out of the ruins of the town – the ZSU launched a sizeable counterattack. This was spearheaded by a massive artillery barrage, including several volleys of M142 HIMARS rockets and, according to unconfirmed reports, resulted in significant advances. Details are to follow.