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That was enough to keep the Serbian air defences suppressed, and prevent them from shooting down more than 2 of involved aircraft (and few UAVs).

Correspondingly: HARM works. People just don't understand how.

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you Tom. As always - insightful read.

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Details are to follow by you (I.e. you know them) or by additional reporting from the relevant sources (i.e. you don’t know the result of the counterattack l)?

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Have heard a lot, but didn't manage to cross-check even 1% of that. And there's nothing official.

Generally, you can always think of my work as follows: what I post here is something 'I've got to hear somewhere', was able to check with an independent source, and - if there's a link - was then confirmed by some other instance, too.

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Do you mean this assault near Sakko I Vantsetti (near Soledar) ? https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1655570162873925634

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Nope, that was just a 'minor correction of the frontline', some 3-4 days ago.

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you,Tom. Following more news from Bakhmut.

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Thanks Tom.

Great work

Please go on

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

"had the VKS and VSRF managed" -- VSRF (ВС РФ "Вооруженные силы Российской федерации") stands for Russian armed forces, thus VKS (ВКС, Воздушно-космические силы) or Air-space force is a part of VSRF. Probably you want to say Russian army and VKS?

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Yes, the VKS is a part of the VSRF.

....and, to be really precise, yes, what I'm usually using 'VSRF' for - would be the Russian Ground Forces/Army (Сухопутные войска). But, the mass of people reading my stuff already have a problem with 'VSRF', so not even trying to use 'SV'.

Even more importantly, the problem is that the 'SV' nowadays isn't only SV, but also BARS, and different PMCs, lately even the VDV and Rosguardia units are operationally subjected to the VSRF's joint strategic commands.

Thus, 'VSRF' is 'better' than 'just SV'.

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Seems like USA will supply HAWKs https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1655683019355705350

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May 9, 2023·edited May 9, 2023

Thank you for the update!

An interesting article came out about the planned transfer of "Air defense drones". Do you know anything about this concept and can these drones significantly strengthen the air defense of Ukraine?

Perhaps you have some information about the LOWER-AD system? Such a system would greatly help Ukraine in the fight against cheap drones and possibly cruise missiles.

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Sorry, can't help. Generally, I'm 'rather specailised' in the Soviet/Russian armed forces and next to clueless about modern-day NATO/Western weaponry (especially of this kind). Sure, can tell an F-16 from an EF-2000, and AIM-120 from Meteor, or Panzerhaubitze 2000 from M109..... it's kind of like my Italian: can order a pizza in an Italian restaurant...

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

As always, thanks for the update. So little useful information in the American mainstream media these days.

Ignorance on my part: I am a bit confused though. It seems the Russians frequently launch more aircraft then they release missiles from those aircraft. Example: "seven Tu-22M-3s released six Kh-22s". According to Wiki, the Tu-22 can carry 2 or 3 Kh-22 so why fly 7 aircraft if 2 or 3 can carry the same payload? Is it primarily a flying range issue? Even then, why 7 aircraft for 6 missiles?

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Theoretically, a Tu-22M-3 can carry a maximum of 3 Kh-22s. One under each wing, and one under the centreline.

However, the mass of Kh-22s they're deploying nowadays are hurriedly refurbished missiles made back in the 1960s or 1970s. Thus, plenty of them are malfunctioning: many do not even fire when released, but drop down 'like a rock'. That's why most of the Russian cruise missiles are released either over the Azov Sea (Kh-22s) or over the Caspian Sea (more advanced, but slower types, like Kh-101 and Kh-555).

Furthermore, the mass of involved bombers - whether Tu-22M-3s (for Kh-22s) or Tu-95MS (for Kh-101s and Kh-555s) - are 30-40 years old. They were never built to fight a war lasting 15 months.

Because of this, there are always 'airborne spares': 'reserve' bombers loaded with cruise missiles, which are then involved only if one of 'actually involved' bombers suffers some sort of malfunction and can't release, or even must abort the mission.

That's what's resulting in such 'discrepancies' between the numbers of bombers detected (by NATO's E-3s) and missiles released or actually reaching the Ukrainian airspace.

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Excellent explanation. Thank You!

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you, Tom! Honestly, your reports are usually more useful to get the information straight, than all the official and non-official resources here in Ukraine even if put together.

Also, wondering why you missed out Kharkiv in the list of cities targeted by air strikes. Another one happened yesterday night 💔

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Very much my pleasure to hear I'm of some use.

Re. Kharkiv: very sorry, haven't heard anything about attacks on Kharkiv. Have you got any details or at least links?

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Here’s the quote from the local news: “Prosecutor's Office Dmitry Chubenko shared details about nighttime missile strikes in the Kharkiv region. The shelling was carried out with S-300 missiles from the territory of the BNR (i.e. Belgorod). In the Kharkiv region - at least 5 hits on infrastructure facilities.

In Bogodukhovsky, a residential building was partially destroyed. After being hit in the Solonitsevsky area, a fire broke out in the forest belt.”

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

and a link to a post by our Prosecutor’s Office (in Ukrainian)

https://khar.gp.gov.ua/ua/news.html?_m=publications&_c=view&_t=rec&id=333467

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Izyum and Balakleya are towns in the Kharkiv region so it seems to be the same strike Tom mentioned in the beginning.

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

The strike I am talking about is not the one that targeted Balakleya or Izuim. Yesterday at around 10pm ruzzians launched up to 5 S-300s in the direction of Kharkiv city. I know the post I shared is in Ukrainian, but it mentions the small settlements in the vicinity of Kharkiv (10-15km) being hit, and Kharkiv residents have heard the explosions very well.

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Very grateful as always for your dedication, Tom. About the Spanish HAWKs, here all people in the military or about Defence thought they just are crap. But remember that our PM Sanchez ordered the first weapons sending without even ask his Government, less the Parliament. And in the Government actually are a sizeable amount of communist, neo communist or Philo communist, that are very pro Russian because they think it’s Neo USSR...

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Yup. Free along the usual 'we must do something' practice.... BTW, makes me wonder: is anybody in Madrid coming to the idea to sue the company responsible - and paid - to keep that MIM-23 system in operational condition for the last 20-30 years....?

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I don’t think so. Politicians used to be bribed for these same companies, so… Worse, some poor Army Engineers may be found responsible for that, just for share barracks with the weapon.

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the good and upbeat report Tom, things look better for Ukraine on the air defenses as you reported not all over Ukraine but still better

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Blinken lied as usual:" Ukraine got ALL it needs for victory."

12 Chalengers + 50 Leopards + 0 Abrams - easy win against 2500 russian tancs. In ALL others weapons the situation the SAME. For example 25+ jets, ancient, which can be used for " canibalism". Against 600 russian jets ( operable). 1 Patriot + 2 Nosams + 2 Iris against HUNDREDS OF C-300 400 500 + hundreds other. 45 Bradleys + 40 SV-90 against 3000+ BMP -3 BMP-2. 0 Strikers against 3000+ BTR-80 .

HAWK were sent BACK to Spain, because they NOT WORK

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May 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Man, you whine in every Tom's article. No one even read your comments. Are you not tired?

To be honest, I even registered to leave this comment 😂

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I will tell truth when alive. Not sure about 2024. Here in Kherson many died. Of cource liars angry to see truth. This explane your comment

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There’s a tricky thing about Dnipropetrovsk.

The city itself calls now just Dnipro. Petrovsk was cut off as it is a name of a bolshevik responsible for the Red Terror in Ukraine.

The district or oblast however remains Dnipropetrovsk.

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