79 Comments

I know this sounds like an anxious and kinda dumb question to make but, in your opnion i know you dont have a crystal ball, what are your expectations for this month?

Expand full comment
Jul 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Very thorough and illustrative. Thanks, Tom.

Expand full comment
Jul 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Спасибо большое

Expand full comment
Jul 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Just curious, there was talk of delivering the 150 km range GLSDBs to be launched from ground-based missile systems such as the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System and M142 HIMARS in July.

Seems they would be very useful for attrition at this stage, I have not seen any mention of their use.

There were other claims they were delivered in March but I have not seen credible reports of their usage.

Expand full comment
Jul 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I have just a little technical note - the text2speech ends at ‘Battle of Donbas’.

Expand full comment

"Modern-day Russia simply has no means to reverse-engineer such stuff" what about if they send it to the Chinese?

Expand full comment

Ok, now an actual question on a ‘divisive’ subject if I may. I keep reading reports and estimates that Russia has spent most of their heavy artillery ammo and may only have a some 2-3 millions left, while their production cannot keep the stock up. At the same time it would appear that the daily expenditure is somewhere around 10k - so less then what os was about a year ago. Does this in rough terms reflect your information, or is it just a wishful thinking?

Expand full comment

Дякую вам за інформацію. Скажіть будь ласка, як росіяни виготовляють "ланцет "? Звідки у них деталі і сам сертифікат?

Expand full comment
Jul 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Most possibly target of 6 Jul attack in Lviv wasn't SBU HQ (which was targeted a week before) but one of nearby military facilities - Academy of ground forces or base of 24th OMBr. Both have a few of garages on their territories, which possibly could be used for holding some vechicles (but i have big doubts they did so). Anywhere, rockets missed both and hit nearby living building.

Expand full comment

Good Morning Tom,

again, many thanks for your work and the resulting summary!

You write:”the only way to measure success right now is by how much damage is it causing to the Russians.”

Overall and in broader terms, do you assess Ukraine (from your point of view) is “successful” using the above reference point and has made/is making the correct adjustments for (more) success?

Many thanks in advance!

Ukrainosaurus

Expand full comment

Thanks for the update. This offensive is excruciating to follow. The level of incompetence is staggering. However, the worst of all is that the ZSU seem completely incapable of learning anything at a strategic, maybe even operational level. You are constantly reminding us about artillery and shells, but that is not the main problem. You send the ZSU more artillery, they will simply continue probing, just with more shells, as they are incapable of exploiting any breakthrough. A country which can't produce small arms, let alone heavy weapons, is trying to beat a country, with at least some level of production and an enormous stock of old weapons and ammunition, through a kill-death ratio. That is simply idiotic. Unless Moscow implodes, which is fortunately probable, there is currently no possibility for Ukraine to achieve success through military means. Eventually, in 3 months time, they will probably push VSRF out of the Melitopol-Mariupol corridor. All the valuable VSRF units will comfortably withdraw, again. Then what? More shells and "probing"? more "genius" infantry platoon-sized raids?

Do you not realise, that without destroying the VSRF army, which is the only purpose of war, the liberated territory does not matter? If Russia retains the valuable bulk of their forces, even if they withdraw from Ukraine, it is incredibly unlikely that there will be a peace treaty. In that case, I don't think anyone expects Russia to agree to any reparations. At the same time, it is almost impossible to imagine a scenario where the frozen assets are simply stolen by the West and transferred to Ukraine. Nobody in the West wants to spend their own money on rebuilding a destitute, corrupt, mined, destroyed barren land. The current population of Ukraine is estimated to be ~26-28M, down from ~37M. The country already had the worst demographics in Europe (Russia is 2nd) before the invasion. By incompetently fighting, the ZSU is helping prolong the war and hence achieve disastrous political outcomes. Instead of constantly complaining about the West, who are not actually at war, you should focus on the incompetent ZSU commanders who after almost 2 years of fighting, continue to operate with individual battalions. They are still incapable of coordinating a brigade-sized combat unit. Coordinating operations of multiple brigades is probably beyond even their wildest dreams.

Expand full comment

Thanks Tom. Great write-up as usual.

It seems the Ukrainians are making slow and steady progress South towards Mariupol and Berdyansk. Berdyansk is just on 300km from the Kerch Bridge, the limit of ATACMS range. You'd have to think the US would spare a handful of these to achieve this one aim, that would significantly shorten the war. This would threaten both supply routes for Russian troops in Western Ukraine (land and sea bridges). At what point do you think we'll see a Russian tactical withdrawal from the West? I'm surprised those troops aren't being redeployed to reinforce lines in Eastern Zaporizhzhya because of this currently.

Expand full comment
Jul 10, 2023·edited Jul 10, 2023

Lots of news from the front again, thanks for trying to keep track of things for us.

Shortly after the start of the Ukrainian offensive, about 80% of the Russian reserves were deployed in the south. If I understand you correctly, are almost all reserves still deployed?

As a layman, I think no rotation is possible, the soldiers can't keep it up for very long, can they? The ultimate physical and mental exhaustion of the Russian soldiers must only be a matter of time, or am I wrong?

On the other hand, Ukraine still has half a dozen full brigades in the background, doing nothing, waiting for a breakthrough or have these units meanwhile been transferred/deployed?

And briefly to Gerassimov. It's ridiculous, he's apparently too bad as supreme commander in Ukraine (otherwise Putin wouldn't have deposed him now after all) but still good enough to remain his chief of staff. But its still unconfirmed yet.

Do you know his successor Mikahil Teplinski and if so, can you say a few words for us laypeople what kind of person and commander he is? Thanks a lot.

Expand full comment

Ukrainians destroy 25-40 artillery systems per day during the last 40 days. It gives you 1-1.5 k loses.

But it looks like still russian has advantage

Expand full comment

Outstanding reporting, gives one hope for an ultimate victory

Expand full comment

I see the author's mood transformed from sarcastic into optimistic. Glory to ZSU!

Expand full comment