Well you did say that the faster Ukrainian's could kill Russian's than they could replace them would be better...distasteful joke, I know, but there's no other way of saying things other than 'It's war'. It's just the way things are going to go sometimes
Even in war there are laws.European countries have banned the use of cluster bombs.Peski accussed Russians as criminals for using them and now Ukrainians follow their example.
Ukraine hadn't signed up to those laws. When the orcs are throughly defeated they can. Until then sentiments such as that you express here are merely a liability and nothing else.
How convenient and pleasant to talk about morality, sitting in a comfortable rocking chair at home. And how quickly this morality is forgotten when an enemy missile flies into this house of yours!
I don't see the Ukrainian's arguing against it if they can use it to push the Russian's out of their home. Beside that, what's lawful doesn't equate instantly to moral
The problem is that societies function through laws.In our case we speak of international law as means to peaceful co-existence of the nations.Otherwise international treaties and borders mean nothing.
Yes, it's a dilemma. In this case the Ukrainian society will disappear if it follows this law. For them it's an easy decision and anyways it's only them who will have to live with the consequences (whole regions filled with unexploded shells).
PS: tell this to Thiel, Muskovich and the other fellows of Friedman's jungle doctrines who rule the current world.
You are certainly right that "societies must follow the law."
But the fact is that cluster munitions are not banned in many countries, for instance Ukraine. Ukraine adheres perfectly to its laws. Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians will not attack civilian targets with cluster munitions. I recommend Ukraine's self-commitment in this regard to, among other things, full documentation and accountability for the use of the cluster munitions supplied.
Furthermore, your insinuation that there is even an approximate agreement on the banning of cluster munitions is simply false. This unity does not even exist in the states that have signed/ratified the CCM.
And fortunately, we have not yet reached the point where individuals determine what is right and what is not in democratic states.
I usually call this "Civilization vs Barbarians issue". Barbarians has no rules. Civilization (or as you said "society") should follow rules. If civilization do not drop rules needed to victory it LOSES. It's like Puylo fighting West. It has no rules, but West tries to be "good" and follow rules. Furthermore, Puylo and useful idiots insist on West and UA following the rules. How convenient.
Russian aggression? Have you forgotten how since 2014 it's the Ukrainians that have been attacking Eastern Ukraine. The Donbass which made Russia to Intervene in the first place
How very strange that Russia has been terrorising civilians in eastern Ukraine with cluster munitions since 2014. For example, on 10 February 2015 in Kramatorsk. 17 civilians were killed in this Russian attack.
By now, even the last tankie/ vatnik should have realised that the stupid Russian propaganda tactic of victim blaming no longer works.
U should immediately change the channel on ur TV, because u get the feeling that u are a regular viewer of one very famous historian and presenter in certain circles, by the name of Solovyov.
It is very simplistic approach.Many wars,including WARI-II,took place on moral grounds.If the intrnational treaties had been respected nothing would have happened.
Europe has not banned the use of cluster bombs, please try to stick to the truth. They simply signed an agreement not to use them.
The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster munitions.
Countries that ratify the convention will be obliged "never under any circumstances to"
Use cluster munitions;
Develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly, cluster munitions;
Assist, encourage or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Convention.
Do you see the word "ban" in this Convention?
Edit: not only is there no ban but States who signed the Convention have the right to withdraw.
The actual text;
"Each State Party shall, in exercising its national sovereignty, have the right to
Depriving the police fron using lethal force to gun down an active shooter that is resisting them and presents continuous mortal threat to women and children under the pretext of protecting the sacred live of said murderer and prevent accidental damage to the shooter's victims and thus enable the murderer to continue his slaughter at leasure can be described as only an insidious intent
Following the liter of the law while willingly ignoring the spirit of it nullify the reasons and purpose of said laws , if you can not enforce the law on criminals and prevent them from acquiring and using lethal weapons against innocents then preventing the victims from acquiring the same lethal weapons to defend themselves is just malicious facilitation of these crimes thinly veiled by arguments of irrelevant abstract morality
Cluster munitions are universally vilified because it makes wars even more worse and thus it takes atleast two to parties to honour a deal , forcing one party to uphold a deal the other party does not even recognise is just insidious participation in a crime
If laws are set on stone regardless of conditions and circumstances then "civil societies" would have never developed and we would still be ruled medieval laws or even the code of Hammurabi
How would you like to be part in a duel, you with a saber and your opponent with a machine gun plus his 3 friends with pistols (the approximate strength ratio Ukraine vs Russia)?
Thanks as always for the update. Really is a deeply sorry thing (for being so inhumane) the use of Cluster Bombs. But as you rightfully said, ruZZians use it every day.
That Ukraine don’t use it (a Country that hadn’t signed the ban on it) is like tied an arm to a wrestler.
Ukraine need every shell that can obtain, cluster or conventional. The best rampart is a wall of fire and explosions.
Thanks for an update. Been reading your summaries since Ca. 30th day of war.
In recent summaries you wrote about Ukrainians being in Robotyne and already approaching further south. Haven't found any confirmation in mainstream besides 'fighting in front' of Robotyne. Its been couple of days. Were Ukrainians driven out or mainstream didnt catch up yet?
Btw i hoped this war would be over this year dunno why but i did. Since few weeks i am sure that it will last absolute minimum year longer.
Ukr is trying to push but in my opinion they should focus this year yet on slow grinding through artillery and overwait for next year when shell production in West increases.
I wouldnt force an attack just in order to satissfy Western politics while sacrificing own soldiers
Essentially, answers will be provided in a 'regular update', later today (BTW, even the Russians are meanwhile admitting that the ZSU has broken their defences of Robotyne).
- Do I understand right that the UAF doesn't have this kind of ammo in any form? Not even in artillery rockets for the ex-Soviet MLRS?
- The photo of the used Russian CBU rockets was widely spread in the past few days. Did these have the same devastating effect on the entrenched UAF forces (e.g. defenders around Bakhmut, in Kherson, etc.) as it is expected from the new artillery ammo?
AFAIK, ZSU has - or used to have - CBUs for BM-27s. BM-30s, and Tochkas.
Re. effectiveness of the Russian CBUs: no idea.
What I can say is that, in general, the Russian explosives are yielding about 30-50% less overpressure than Western explosives. Means: a Russian shell or bomb is 'making less boom' than a Western shell of bomb of the same calibre. In this regards, nothing has changed at least since the 1980s.
....or if, then the difference only became greater, then the West continued (heavily) investing in related R&D, which in turn means that modern-day Western explosives (and bomb/shell-casing design) are yet more advanced, and thus more effective, than the Russian.
Soviet CBUs vere much less efficient comparing to NATO ones, and all Ukraine had were the remains of old Soviet stores - not very much of, old, rusty and not very effective from the beginning of their life. I've seen some footages of their use (Berdiansk port, for example, where a Russian troop transport was burned after several strikes by Tocka-U with CBU warheads), the dud rate was obviously far more then 50%.
Thank you for update, Tom. We, Ukrainian, do need the stuff that cause the most damage and lost for our enemies. Not because we like to kill them, but as it is the only way to liberate our soil and defend our physical existence as a nation. It will also safe the lives of hundreds or even thousands Ukrainian servicemen.
It is really good news. Today we have also some good news from general Sirsky about the situation in Bakhmut. We have also news from Russia that the majority of the population thinks Putler to be an effective leader and his actions are rightful.
Another informative feature thanks Tom. Totally agree with you that it's absolutely ridiculous that the west are still too concerned about upsetting Russia and only drip feeding ukraine the weapons and equipment they need... this is a war of mass and ukraine needs LOTS of everything in order to be able to strike decisively.
It seems Ukraine troubles with ammunitions keeps growing.
Biden said in an interview this is only a temporary solution until the production of regular shell ramps up. Though I doubt Western monthly production will ever approach UKR needs. Even just for holding grounds.
The more goes by the more UKR and the West seem unprepared for this *big offensive. Credit where its due : you warned about it as early as late winter.
Also I cant help but make a link with what happened with Ukroboronprom in the past days.
It's about time UKR cease to rely on the West and becomes self sufficient for most of its war effort. Otherwise, Westerners politicians being Western politicians, it won't end well.
When a huge country like Russia has to source shells from abroad even though their factories are not under daily bombardment then it is impractical to expect Ukraine to do better when they have to produce munitions in a war zone.
I believe that the idea of an "honorable war" is a fallacy. There is no such thing as an "honorable war" -- war is, by its very nature, immoral. The only time when waging a war is justifiable is when your back is to the wall and your society is in danger of being extinguished. This is the case now in Ukraine. Since there is no such thing as an honorable war, when you are forced to defend yourself in wartime, any means are justified.
Usually yes, mainly if defense is only entrenched and mostly lightly armored or not armored at all. There was a video a few days ago about a Russian attack with three BMPs and about 30 soldiers. The UAF artillery was very precise, but even this way they needed some 10-12 shots to eliminate the dismounted troops who dispersed in an about 100x100 m area. With CBU it's about 2-3 shells.
It's even more true with entrenched enemy. The blast radius of the HE shell is much smaller than the dispersion area of the bomblets. Also the bomblets has a much higher chance to fall directly into the trench (as there are many) than the one warhead of the HE shell.
Another likely benefit is the easier elimination of the different jammers and EW devices which should be in the open and vulnerable but usually has a very small footprint. Drones can hit them, but they are often exactly against drones, so it isn't always working. With CBU shells if they are identified it has a much higher probability of being hit than with a HE shell.
Well you did say that the faster Ukrainian's could kill Russian's than they could replace them would be better...distasteful joke, I know, but there's no other way of saying things other than 'It's war'. It's just the way things are going to go sometimes
Even in war there are laws.European countries have banned the use of cluster bombs.Peski accussed Russians as criminals for using them and now Ukrainians follow their example.
Ukraine hadn't signed up to those laws. When the orcs are throughly defeated they can. Until then sentiments such as that you express here are merely a liability and nothing else.
With no morality there is no point to take sides.
Well, I find it immoral to deny Ukraine the means to defend itself against the criminal Russian aggression.
Indeed, to let Ukraine short on ammunition, so the Russians can continue shelling Ukrainian cities, towns, villages, and fields with CBUs.
...and that, usually, because of the Russian Sea of Lies, and clueless Western 'good people', or arseholes bribed by Putin's black cash....
The Russians always have a very simple option: withdraw from Ukraine. They are the only party that can stop this war at any point in time.
Ukrainians have nothing of such luxury.
Societies must follow the law.Otherwise we turn into animals and society into jungle.Morality is well defined,not a subjective definition.
How convenient and pleasant to talk about morality, sitting in a comfortable rocking chair at home. And how quickly this morality is forgotten when an enemy missile flies into this house of yours!
To assume that you are a brave fighter writing from the Ukrainian front.I believe that you have not even join the army.
Societies must follow the law, but not a law you are trying to impose as the only law possible.
Explain this to putin.
That s why the West supports Ukraine.
I don't see the Ukrainian's arguing against it if they can use it to push the Russian's out of their home. Beside that, what's lawful doesn't equate instantly to moral
The problem is that societies function through laws.In our case we speak of international law as means to peaceful co-existence of the nations.Otherwise international treaties and borders mean nothing.
Again, the Minsk and Budapest agreements
Tell that to the Russians. They are breaking all the laws at least since 2014.
Yes, it's a dilemma. In this case the Ukrainian society will disappear if it follows this law. For them it's an easy decision and anyways it's only them who will have to live with the consequences (whole regions filled with unexploded shells).
PS: tell this to Thiel, Muskovich and the other fellows of Friedman's jungle doctrines who rule the current world.
You are certainly right that "societies must follow the law."
But the fact is that cluster munitions are not banned in many countries, for instance Ukraine. Ukraine adheres perfectly to its laws. Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians will not attack civilian targets with cluster munitions. I recommend Ukraine's self-commitment in this regard to, among other things, full documentation and accountability for the use of the cluster munitions supplied.
Furthermore, your insinuation that there is even an approximate agreement on the banning of cluster munitions is simply false. This unity does not even exist in the states that have signed/ratified the CCM.
And fortunately, we have not yet reached the point where individuals determine what is right and what is not in democratic states.
I do not understand what you say.Society consists of individuals.
Yes, everybody has follow the law. In this case start from one who invades, rapes, tortures and kills not from one who is trying to survive
I usually call this "Civilization vs Barbarians issue". Barbarians has no rules. Civilization (or as you said "society") should follow rules. If civilization do not drop rules needed to victory it LOSES. It's like Puylo fighting West. It has no rules, but West tries to be "good" and follow rules. Furthermore, Puylo and useful idiots insist on West and UA following the rules. How convenient.
Nazi made the same claims.Then,as a national emergency,began burning Jews.You defend Putin s logic.I hope you understand who the idiot is.
Russian aggression? Have you forgotten how since 2014 it's the Ukrainians that have been attacking Eastern Ukraine. The Donbass which made Russia to Intervene in the first place
Yes, you've nicely described it: UKRAINIANS 'attacking' eastern UKRAINE - because it's UKRAINE and the Russians invaded.
Ukraine is none of Russia's business (to make sure for whataboutists like you: just like Iraq was none of US business).
Bullshit.
How very strange that Russia has been terrorising civilians in eastern Ukraine with cluster munitions since 2014. For example, on 10 February 2015 in Kramatorsk. 17 civilians were killed in this Russian attack.
By now, even the last tankie/ vatnik should have realised that the stupid Russian propaganda tactic of victim blaming no longer works.
Do you know who Girkin-Strelkov is? And how did he find himself with his gang, first in the Crimea, and then in Slavyansk?
U should immediately change the channel on ur TV, because u get the feeling that u are a regular viewer of one very famous historian and presenter in certain circles, by the name of Solovyov.
There is no such thing as Eastern Ukraine; there is the East of Ukraine. And we remember how in 2014 Russian forces invaded there.
Sorry, we never have an absolute choice between good and evil.
All we have is a choice between what is less evil and more evil.
The only way for this war to end is with a Ukrainian victory. This will help in that.
It is very simplistic approach.Many wars,including WARI-II,took place on moral grounds.If the intrnational treaties had been respected nothing would have happened.
You mean like Russia ignoring Minsk and Budapest?
There's plenty of literature that states the first world war happened precisely because the international treaties were respected.
If...
How privileged you must be to have the ability to chose.
Russians are war criminals for plentiful of reasons:
- non-provoked aggression of Ukraine
- war of extermination of Ukraine
- mass-murder of civilians
- deportation of children
- deployment of CBUs in Ukrainian cities
- mining of multiple dams
- summary executions of POWs
- torture of civilians and POWs alike....
....that list is endless.
European countries have banned the use of the CBUs. USA, Russia and Ukraine didn't. Thus, them deploying CBUs is no war crime. It's a simple as that.
it would be a war crime if they're deployed against civilians or densely populated areas (pretty much like with the conventional ammo)
hopefully Ukrainians will be able to avoid that, and indeed that is the promise given by Resnikov
Europe has not banned the use of cluster bombs, please try to stick to the truth. They simply signed an agreement not to use them.
The Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM) is an international treaty that prohibits all use, transfer, production, and stockpiling of cluster munitions.
Countries that ratify the convention will be obliged "never under any circumstances to"
Use cluster munitions;
Develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly, cluster munitions;
Assist, encourage or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Convention.
Do you see the word "ban" in this Convention?
Edit: not only is there no ban but States who signed the Convention have the right to withdraw.
The actual text;
"Each State Party shall, in exercising its national sovereignty, have the right to
withdraw from this Convention."
How is 'ban' different to 'never, under any circumstances to use of'...?
It is a question of context.
It is not true Europe has banned cluster weapons, it is a voluntary decision by the sovereign states.
In Europe the following countries have not signed the convention; Poland, Romania and Ukraine so no ban.
Cyprus has signed but not ratified the convention.
Russia spans Europe and Asia and has also not signed.
If you prefer to say they are banned within then signatory states then that is OK for me.
As mentioned, any signatory can withdraw.
Depriving the police fron using lethal force to gun down an active shooter that is resisting them and presents continuous mortal threat to women and children under the pretext of protecting the sacred live of said murderer and prevent accidental damage to the shooter's victims and thus enable the murderer to continue his slaughter at leasure can be described as only an insidious intent
Following the liter of the law while willingly ignoring the spirit of it nullify the reasons and purpose of said laws , if you can not enforce the law on criminals and prevent them from acquiring and using lethal weapons against innocents then preventing the victims from acquiring the same lethal weapons to defend themselves is just malicious facilitation of these crimes thinly veiled by arguments of irrelevant abstract morality
Cluster munitions are universally vilified because it makes wars even more worse and thus it takes atleast two to parties to honour a deal , forcing one party to uphold a deal the other party does not even recognise is just insidious participation in a crime
If laws are set on stone regardless of conditions and circumstances then "civil societies" would have never developed and we would still be ruled medieval laws or even the code of Hammurabi
How would you like to be part in a duel, you with a saber and your opponent with a machine gun plus his 3 friends with pistols (the approximate strength ratio Ukraine vs Russia)?
Thanks as always for the update. Really is a deeply sorry thing (for being so inhumane) the use of Cluster Bombs. But as you rightfully said, ruZZians use it every day.
That Ukraine don’t use it (a Country that hadn’t signed the ban on it) is like tied an arm to a wrestler.
Ukraine need every shell that can obtain, cluster or conventional. The best rampart is a wall of fire and explosions.
Thanks for an update. Been reading your summaries since Ca. 30th day of war.
In recent summaries you wrote about Ukrainians being in Robotyne and already approaching further south. Haven't found any confirmation in mainstream besides 'fighting in front' of Robotyne. Its been couple of days. Were Ukrainians driven out or mainstream didnt catch up yet?
Btw i hoped this war would be over this year dunno why but i did. Since few weeks i am sure that it will last absolute minimum year longer.
Ukr is trying to push but in my opinion they should focus this year yet on slow grinding through artillery and overwait for next year when shell production in West increases.
I wouldnt force an attack just in order to satissfy Western politics while sacrificing own soldiers
My pleasure.
Essentially, answers will be provided in a 'regular update', later today (BTW, even the Russians are meanwhile admitting that the ZSU has broken their defences of Robotyne).
Thanks a lot
Thank you for the details. Some question:
- Do I understand right that the UAF doesn't have this kind of ammo in any form? Not even in artillery rockets for the ex-Soviet MLRS?
- The photo of the used Russian CBU rockets was widely spread in the past few days. Did these have the same devastating effect on the entrenched UAF forces (e.g. defenders around Bakhmut, in Kherson, etc.) as it is expected from the new artillery ammo?
AFAIK, ZSU has - or used to have - CBUs for BM-27s. BM-30s, and Tochkas.
Re. effectiveness of the Russian CBUs: no idea.
What I can say is that, in general, the Russian explosives are yielding about 30-50% less overpressure than Western explosives. Means: a Russian shell or bomb is 'making less boom' than a Western shell of bomb of the same calibre. In this regards, nothing has changed at least since the 1980s.
....or if, then the difference only became greater, then the West continued (heavily) investing in related R&D, which in turn means that modern-day Western explosives (and bomb/shell-casing design) are yet more advanced, and thus more effective, than the Russian.
Soviet CBUs vere much less efficient comparing to NATO ones, and all Ukraine had were the remains of old Soviet stores - not very much of, old, rusty and not very effective from the beginning of their life. I've seen some footages of their use (Berdiansk port, for example, where a Russian troop transport was burned after several strikes by Tocka-U with CBU warheads), the dud rate was obviously far more then 50%.
I read somewhere Ukraine is buying CBUs from Turkey, if true, I suppose in only small numbers.
That was in limited numbers and shortly before the war.
There are limits in how far would Erdo let anybody go against his phone-pal Pudding...
After releasing AZOV's commanders recently, I already doubt Erdogan still have these limits :)
Unlike Ukrainians, Russians have a very simple solution to avoid being killed - to leave the territory of Ukraine.
That's the point here.
Thank you for update, Tom. We, Ukrainian, do need the stuff that cause the most damage and lost for our enemies. Not because we like to kill them, but as it is the only way to liberate our soil and defend our physical existence as a nation. It will also safe the lives of hundreds or even thousands Ukrainian servicemen.
It is really good news. Today we have also some good news from general Sirsky about the situation in Bakhmut. We have also news from Russia that the majority of the population thinks Putler to be an effective leader and his actions are rightful.
Everyone was talking on how russia will run out of shells. In reality, its West run out of shells.
If they wait another 6 month, russia will have time to find a new solution, like they did with mines to stop the attack.
Then they need another 6 month to find a solution and russia will have another 6 month to find something new
War is war.
People did things in 1943 that were unthinkable in 1939.
We better get used to a very different world than the one of the last 30 years--particularly if Russia isn't defeated.
Let's hope the Western politicians imagine this picture, too. 1984.
Another informative feature thanks Tom. Totally agree with you that it's absolutely ridiculous that the west are still too concerned about upsetting Russia and only drip feeding ukraine the weapons and equipment they need... this is a war of mass and ukraine needs LOTS of everything in order to be able to strike decisively.
Thank you Tom.
You put it very clearly.
It seems Ukraine troubles with ammunitions keeps growing.
Biden said in an interview this is only a temporary solution until the production of regular shell ramps up. Though I doubt Western monthly production will ever approach UKR needs. Even just for holding grounds.
The more goes by the more UKR and the West seem unprepared for this *big offensive. Credit where its due : you warned about it as early as late winter.
Also I cant help but make a link with what happened with Ukroboronprom in the past days.
It's about time UKR cease to rely on the West and becomes self sufficient for most of its war effort. Otherwise, Westerners politicians being Western politicians, it won't end well.
When a huge country like Russia has to source shells from abroad even though their factories are not under daily bombardment then it is impractical to expect Ukraine to do better when they have to produce munitions in a war zone.
I believe that the idea of an "honorable war" is a fallacy. There is no such thing as an "honorable war" -- war is, by its very nature, immoral. The only time when waging a war is justifiable is when your back is to the wall and your society is in danger of being extinguished. This is the case now in Ukraine. Since there is no such thing as an honorable war, when you are forced to defend yourself in wartime, any means are justified.
Yup. Wars are always messy. Which is why it's always better to avoid them.
Stupid question, will cluster munitions have a bigger impact on russian forces on defensive positions, more than regular HE munitions?
Usually yes, mainly if defense is only entrenched and mostly lightly armored or not armored at all. There was a video a few days ago about a Russian attack with three BMPs and about 30 soldiers. The UAF artillery was very precise, but even this way they needed some 10-12 shots to eliminate the dismounted troops who dispersed in an about 100x100 m area. With CBU it's about 2-3 shells.
It's even more true with entrenched enemy. The blast radius of the HE shell is much smaller than the dispersion area of the bomblets. Also the bomblets has a much higher chance to fall directly into the trench (as there are many) than the one warhead of the HE shell.
Another likely benefit is the easier elimination of the different jammers and EW devices which should be in the open and vulnerable but usually has a very small footprint. Drones can hit them, but they are often exactly against drones, so it isn't always working. With CBU shells if they are identified it has a much higher probability of being hit than with a HE shell.