Ukraine War, 8 September 2024: Part 2

….having discussed the brilliance of Western and Ukrainian politics and air warfare, now for the next topic - where I cannot but observe: don’t worry, there’s even more brilliance to follow in this regards, too!

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GROUND WAR

Following completely unnecessary losses in troops (important) and terrain (less important) of the last two months, the last week – literally ‘5 before 12’, and certainly on order from another ‘greatest strategist of all the time’ – the GenStab-U has, finally, sent reinforcements to Donbas. Why was this impossible to do for months before is über-super-top-secret. Really, can only guess it must be within realms of, ‘could tell you, but would have to kill you’. But: don’t worry, it’s another of affairs in Ukraine that’s going to be investigated.

…which means that there there is going to be no repeat of old mistakes. This is certain because some of ZSU’s generals do happen do get fired, time and again. It’s just so that, exactly like in the case of politicians and officials accused of corruption, nothing happens afterwards. Nobody is investigated for anything. Instead, the situation is left in limbo until the public cools down - and then forgotten… This is why, when one asks why are the reinforcements for the Pokrovsk sector ‘happening’ only now, one gets to hear the same ‘after the war’ like always since 24 February 2022.

Perhaps it’s just so that the list of reasons to investigate major failures by glorious Ukrainian politicians is meanwhile much too long, and, as everybody knows: investigating top ZSU generals is a blasphemy.

(Besides, neither are ever making any kind of mistakes, so why bother…?)

Ah well…. Point is: whether by accident or design, yes, the reinforcements… erm… ‘have happened’.

And how have they happened! Precisely in a fashion that could have been expected by nobodies like me, not to talk about the Russians: in front of the VSRF advance. Not at its flanks or somewhere else the GenStab-U wouldn’t ever expect them to…. happen.

…unsurprisingly, my admiration for genius politicians and generals just keeps on growing, like it’s constantly growing ever since around the early 1990s. Read: all the time, every minute, hour, day, week, and month…

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KURSK…

This Ukrainian operation is pointless. Or a waste of time and resources. Incompetently planned and executed… Or super-turbo enterprise that caught the Russians with their underwear down, but: unsuccessful in drawing at least 30,000+, perhaps up to 60,000 Russian troops away from the battlefields in Ukraine. Because, you know, had it not been launched, these 30,000-60,000 Russian troops would either remain inside Russia and continue threatening NATO, and the Suwalki Corridor, or some other nonsense in same style…or not be withdrawn from Ukraine…

That’s what one can read in assessments of all the possible Experten. Especially those cashing US$/€ 100,000+ a year. And including those that, mere 11 years ago, were predicting a period of pluralism and democracy, peace and prosperity for the entire Black Sea area… and selling such truths and knowledge all over the EU for prices starting with €50,000….(meh, that price was still lower than for multiple expertises on extremist Islam in the EU, containing no links between it and governments of Qatar or Pakistan, and the same standing in absolutely no relations to what Israel is doing every single day… just for example…)

Never mind. What’s important and what does matter is that the ‘video, or it didn’t happen’-crowd in the social media stoically continues to ignore the Russians assaults on the ZSU positions along the railway berm east of Alexandrovka – probably because, well, everybody knows this offensive is a failure…

A still from a video showing two Russian BMPs or BMDs involved in one of dozens of failed counterattacks on ZSU positions along the railway line east of Alexandrovka, the last week.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the stadium, this week Pudding’s PRBS-industrialists were busy crying about the fate of metropolises like Pogrebki, Orlovka, Naydenov, Maryevka, Nechaev… Arguably, all are under ZSU control for more than 10 days, meanwhile, but – also because in the Russian social media this Ukrainian offensive is best known for being spoiled already back on 7 August 2024 – the VSRF proved unable to punch through to the troops encircled there, and thus now had to admit it: all have been captured.

Rather surprisingly, they’re not complaining about the loss of Pushkarnoe; about the destruction of two additional pontoon bridges on the Seym; or all the failures of multiple Russian counterattacks east of Korenevo…. Must be so that these do not matter…  what does matter is, so the Pudding’s PRBs-industralists, the relentless flow of ever additional Ukrainian reinforcements equipped with huge volumes of latest NATO-armament and led by British, Polish, French and other international mercenaries into Russia…

The end of another Russian PMP pontoon bridge over the Seym, sometimes around 2-3 September.

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NORTHERN KHARKIV

The ZSU has finally found a way to organise and conduct an effective counterattack in this area and kicked the Russians away from Lyptsi. The troops were busy collecting the loot for two days afterwards. This included at least one TOS-1 and this T-72 (towed away by a captured TOS-1):

A captured TOS-1….

….used to tow away this captured T-72, in the Lyptsi area, around 3-4 September.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove… The 77^th Airborne has managed to stop the Russian advance via Pischane in direction of the Oskil River, but the Russians (15^th Motor-Rifle Regiment & 1^st Tank Regiment?) then turned south and advanced into the rear of the 77^th’s positions in the Berstove area… Thus, bitter fighting is going on in the local fields and hedgerows, and the situation is anything else than ‘stabilised’… But, no reason to worry: gauging by events elsewhere, the GenStab-U is going to send reinforcements.

….sometimes in January 2025…

One of five Russian T-80BVMs knocked out at one site, sometimes this week… sorry, don’t know the exact area, though.

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Toretsk…  while the 32^nd Mech, 53^rd Mech, 95^th Airborne, and 150^th Mech have held out most of the Russian assaults from Shumy and Zalizne, early this week, a counterattack by the 53^rd recovered most of northern Niu York. The Russians, promptly, counterattacked into the flanks, suffered heavy losses and where thrown back, and then, two days ago, the II/53^rd then recovered the centre and the southern side of NIu York.

….quite certainly because it was entirely impossible to reinforce the troops on time and prevent the loss of Niu York, in the first place…

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Pokrovsk-Avdiivka… The Russians continued attacking west, but foremost south, this week. Have entered Novotoretske, but can’t bring it under control. Have entered Hrodivka, but can’t bring it under control….although, gauging by videos like the one from which the following still was taken, whoever has sent them there, has not much clue about where are the Russians, either…

…then the Russians have entered Krasny Yar and Mykolaivka, but can’t bring either under control. Hey, but at least they’ve been left to secure all of Novohrodivka and the Ukrainian-constructed defence system there….

The Russian attacks on Selydove were all smashed. At least while entering Mykhailivka (something like ‘eastern suburb of Selydove’). That far, everything was ‘fine’ this week – even more so because it so happened the GenStab-U brought in the 12^th NG Azov and the 15^th NG Kara-Dag Brigades (that unit introduced itself to the 55th or the 137th Brigades of the Russian Group Tsentr in a particularly kind fashion), plus the 93^rd Mechanised to this area….

This is no ‘after the battle’ scene from Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s, but of another motorcycle-mounted Russian assault in Ukraine of 2024…

What was less fine (and, indeed, remains not the least fine as this is written), is the situation on the southern side of the Russian bulge. There, the GenStab-U did not deploy any reinforcements, so that the Russians – completely unexpectedly, you know - entered Ukrainsk, and Halytsynivka, plus reached the northern side of Hirnyk. So that now they have less than 5,000 metres left to Kurakhivka and Vovchenka, where they will be able to cut off four ZSU brigades (59^th, 68^th, 78^th, 117^th) still holding out east of the Vovcha River.

Of course, the troops in question are already withdrawing from the ‘Nevelske Pocket’ (and thus from positions that held so fine for years), and the actual frontline is already somewhere between Halytsynivka and Krasnohorivka, but ZSU is so unfair and not releasing any kind of related videos…

The Russians promptly did something about that with videos. While trying to support the push on Kurakhivka by an assault from the East (from the Krasnohorivka area), the 96^th Motor-Rifle Brigade introduced us to a new Olympic discipline: simultaneous detonations of multiple vehicles. Current record holder is the assault group of that brigade led by Captain Alexander Bezmozhny, with ‘3 at once’:

….Bezmozhni’s competition is fierce, though, and new records are certainly to follow…

Talking about mindless people, two ‘BTWs’…

No. 1: what’s interesting is the 93^rd’s experiences in regards of clearing the skies. Literally. Its Signum Battalion destroyed some 49 Russian UAVs, including 36 Zalas, 7 SuperCams, 5 Orlans, and 1 Lancet (here all the related geo-locations). Now, for somebody else but the GenStab-U, this would be a ‘valuable lesson learned’. See: you first clear the Russian UAVs, then smash them on the ground. But, in Ukraine…

No. 2: another photo of a knocked out M1 Abrams main battle tank of the 47^th Mechanised Brigade, ZSU, has surfaced in the social media:

….which stunned a number of well-informed US-Americans: indeed, a few have declared it a blasphemy. For multiple, well-substantiated reasons.

The first is that because no US-operated M1 was ever destroyed in combat, you know. Only M1s operated by such incompetents like Iraqis, Saudis, or Ukrainians.

The actual list for M1s destroyed – in Iraq of 2003-2006 alone (i.e. not including 1991) – is something like 13, plus 64 ‘wrecked but repairable in factory’. But, that doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter the US-Americans never fought the Russians either (except as volunteers in Ukraine, for example). Another blasphemy is the Ukrainians attaching so many ERA bricks (ERA = explosive reactive armour) around their M1s: because the same US-Americans know the armour is able to cope with all sorts of threats. Who cares if the armour in quistion was designed at a time nobody could even dream about the threat of the same tank getting hit by several FPVs equipped with shaped-charge warheads from above…

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The Vuhledar corner… except for zombie idiots, this remains my favourite topic – because almost everybody else is ignoring it. So much so, it’s hard to explain. Cannot but beg you: please, stop reading at least at this point…

You know, it began about 10+ days ago, when first rumours about the 72^nd Mechanised being rotated out of the area have reached me. Indeed, the story went as far as that the troops of the 72^nd were concerned they’re withdrawing out of Vuhledar, but about to be sent to Pokrovsk… Now, no idea if the 72^nd was really re-deployed to the Pokrovsk sector (I do hope: NOT). But, well, if something of that kind has reached me… it’s certain not to have reached Moscow and the Russian GenStab, right?

With other words: after something like two years (ever since rushing the 72^nd Mechanised, which was battered already during the Battle for Moshschun, north-west of Kyiv, back in March 2022 to Vuhledar), the GenStab-U has, for once (and really: surprisingly) decided not to ignore this sector.

Instead, and once again, it demonstrated brilliance in regards of operational security. Just like it demonstrated brilliance in regards of learning its lessons. As obvious from the fact that right at the time the 72^nd was in the process of being withdrawn and replaced by the 58^th Motorised, and for the first time ever, ever, the Russians assaulted the area.

All of a sudden. Nothing of this kind happened ever before… especially not since Soledar in early January 2023…

….that’s the advantage of the GenStab-U still not taking care to write a new doctrine of the ZSU – one based on combat experiences of the last 2,5-10,5 years: that way, the mass of its brigade- and battalion commanders are still not good enough at security, nor do they anticipate Russian assaults at the time they’re in the process of rotating their troops.

But hey: the Ukrainians were lucky. The Russians merely shelled the ruins of Vuhledar into oblivion. Didn’t attack there. Instead, they merely captured the ZSU positions in Prechystivka, completely demolished in a months-long, systemic campaign of air- and UAV-strikes.

The glorious Red… erm… Russian Army, running a ‘mechanised’ attack on Prechsystivka - with 9 motorcycles and four armoured fighting vehicles, back on 3 September 2024. Watching videos of this kind is making it crystal clear just what kind of a mortal threat is NATO facing - so it can’t send more arms and ammo to Ukraine…

Four Tigr MRAPs of the VSRF, knocked out during the fighting in the Vuhledar area, this week.

….and they have entered Vodiane and reached the entry to one of mines there. Plus pushed along the road from there in direction of the eastern side of Vuhledar. Which is why people far cleverer and better informed about this war, and warfare in general, than I am, concluded that the Russians didn’t advance in this area at all. Indeed, that they are capable of simultaneously advancing only on one sector of the front in Ukraine…

Meh: gauging that way, this was actually a Russian withdrawal…?

….all of which is the same like concluding that somebody hit and killed by 5 bullets was lucky, because only 1 was deadly…

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On the lighter side…

Please excuse the lack of replies to your possible commentary. For the rest of this afternoon, I’m busy playing with my aircraft…