Ukrainian army is full of surprises. One of these is destroying a warship in Kerch, another is crossing Dnipro (1000 or more meters wide) and capturing Kosachi Lahery. I wonder if NATO generals are impressed by such heroic deeds because Jake Sullivan evidently is not. Some people really have blood of a fish. Glory to VSU!
France, like other Western nations, has been ramping up production.
40,000 per year is fine in peacetime - France is not in the business of supplying artillery ammunition to every hotspot and minor conflict in the interests of promoting instability, but it is obviously insufficient in the even of a significant conflict.
I expect that all Western nations are looking seriously at a real increase in the amount of ammunition they keep in stockpiles, and at how to enable rapid increases in production when required.
Russian economy is much smaller than the French one. The only difference is that a democratic regime which is not at war can not behave as an autocratic one ,not caring for its citizens in any way.
Does it make sense for any country to start a war without any rational motivation and to 800/1000 persons a day to death instead of focusing on the real challenges like fighting global warming , which is the massive real global threat ?
It is very weird to put such a blame on France only.
I also have some suspicions on who is Karabas .
This person seems to come out of nowhere .
Could you, Karabas, be a Russian troll, aiming at creating troubles between the Allies ?
Your statement that Ukraine should fight alone, France is just a casual supporter if they want hears very offensive for ukrainian ear, especually for guys on a front line for 2 years.
France is just tge size of Russia by economy or a bit bigger. So its easy to compare that they produce 50 times more ammo.
Most countries do the same. Some even stops support like Slovakia.
And this is critical because someone is dying because of this. I am just getting a bit desperate, seeign people dying at the same time hearing "how dare you are to critisize, its your war, not our" .
My personal opinion: World is very harsh and unfair to Ukraine
So no, sorry , but Russia and France are definitely not about the same economical size.
Per capita gap is massive.
Therefore it is absolutely criminal from Putin to focus his country’s resources on a useless and meaningless war rather than putting all his efforts to upgrade his population’s quality of life
Now, could you tell us where you’re writing from ?
It makes no sense to compare capacities of military economies of RU and FRA on $ for $ basis, or even using purchase parity conversion. What's the point to compare values say of unemployment payment or Macca's burger price? How about to compare price and time of construction of a nuclear submarine, a combat aircraft or an artillery piece. Doubt France is anywhere close.
If France ( just an example ) considers only its own interests and say they are not at war, then Ukraine should consider its interests the same way.
Switching sides might be if full scale analisis shows its in Ukrainian interests. For instance, if other party propose better way ( example, give Crimea without the fight in exchange of establishing Soviet 2 ).
The true Ukrainian interest at the moment is remaining free and not fall into the grips of a autocratic/ plutocratic/ fascist regime like the a Russian current one.
The Western help is slow because of weak leaders in some countries, certain politicians on a russian payroll, internal politics etc. The level and rate of military help is not sufficient but it is significant and we are grateful for it.
In regards to Ukraine's interests it is vital to defeat Russia and join Nato to ensure our long-term security. And with your dreams of switching sides to Russia, I'm sorry to say dear Russian friend but we despise Russia, please take back your filthy orcs from out territory and enjoy your slavery yourselves.
France began increasing production from peacetime levels in 2022, when it became obvious that it was needed. It takes time to ramp up. Overall, Western artillery production is now nearing double what it was pre-war, and still increasing.
My pick is that by late 2024 it will be sufficient.
Russia also started increasing from peace level. And beat France 50 times... not 5%, not 50%, not 500% but 5000%.
How its possible?
( and France is an example, some "supporters" dont wanna support at all, like Slovakia ).
Its just disapointing and its a life of real people. And I feel that other nations just dont care, they care of not spending 1 extra dollar while some dozens if not hundreds are dying somewhere in Avdiivka because someone produces less ammo
As a totalitarian an undemocratic state, Russia can just order a production increase in artillery ammunition. As an open and democratic state France cannot do so, just like that. Besides, it takes time and political will to increase production from previous peacetime levels. The needed amount of ammo was not appreciated before, either.
Surely a market economy can do the same. The government merely has to pay and it will happen. Market economy should be more agile and effective than a sclerotic totalitarian one.
But democratic systems are not used to such dramatic changes. They have budget practices and rules that they believe they have to follow. Procurement laws, procedures and systems must be adhered to, and so on. It takes time for governments to make decisions, sign contracts and pay. Without contracts armament industries will not build factories, order raw materials, hire workforces. It all takes time. More so since it is only Ukraine that has been directly attacked so far.
As I understand it, western democracies were taken by surprise by the Russian attack. Very few realized that Putin would indeed push the button this time.
Fair point. I hope we don't get invaded one day and find the government bleating that they can't raise the arms because of procurement rules. On the other hand, look what happened when UK government tried a quick response to covid, abandoned its procurement rules and embezzled a fortune.
I personally support the idea that France in particular and Europe in general should allocate much more budget to their defense and give an extra support to Ukraine.
But I also understand the west. If I was living somewhere in Lille, Rotterdam or Sidney, why should I care about some russians killing some Ukrainians?
I would think like "russians are horrible, maniacs, better if they stop killing ukrainians but if it cost me 1 usd to support them - then price is too high, I dont wanna pay, let them kill or use democrathy to freeze the war. Who cares about territories, no impact on my life in Strasbourgh
Is there any conceivable way that an ammo production line can be "dual-use" ? That is to say, is there any way that an ammo production line can be dedicated to some sort of civilian production that keeps it marginally profitable and keeps key workers employed when wartime production rates are not required ?
To some extent perhaps. But only in theory. The critical capability is the proper and safe production of the explosives, it takes skilled labour and practice. Chemicals and substances for explosives have limited shelf life and this supply chain is sensitive. The problem is, if not done properly, such factories tend to blow up...
Nice update. I heard about the 1 Corvette hit by the SCALPs, but not any of the others. Looking forward to hearing more on that. I am curious though about how fast and how many of the FrankenSAMs the UA is going to be able to get set up before the "Big One" comes. And in that category, how many can the Russians shoot at once? The limiting factor here isn't so much the number of missiles, its the launch platforms and the UA has done some attrition here (not enough of course).
Thanks Tom for the report, good to read some good news, lets hope the UAF can hold out at Avdiika, I like reading about whats happening in Dnipro will be looking forward to your nest report
One question: Zaluzhny wrote in his economist essay, that is was his mistake to assume to win the war by attriting the enemy. Do you agree with him on that matter?
Many thanks Tom for the report. Hope that you “non-vacation” time out give you some well deserved rest.
Also hope the best for the Adviidka brave defenders, maybe in short time the ZSU may lift the “siege”. The Dnipro crossings may help, if RuZZians send troops that way, taking they from northern sectors.
Yes I agree they are used to take out bigger drones as well. It makes a lot of sense to use GMLRS to take out a group launching lancets as well as the spotter drone.
Thanks.
I was always thinking that the dniepro battlefield could be the right place for a kind of a Napoleonic move .
It is slow though , vs what I mentioned .
But highly making sense
Thank you, have a good “ITS NOT A BREAK” break!
Ukrainian army is full of surprises. One of these is destroying a warship in Kerch, another is crossing Dnipro (1000 or more meters wide) and capturing Kosachi Lahery. I wonder if NATO generals are impressed by such heroic deeds because Jake Sullivan evidently is not. Some people really have blood of a fish. Glory to VSU!
France produces 3000 155 mm shells a month, thats 40 k a year.
Russia with similar size economy to France rummored produces 1.5 mil ammo a year.
So France puts is 50+ times less efforts
I guess it is clear, it has been since 2022 that there is no political decision to kill Russia. Not yet. Just to contain the conflict.
They give just enough to make fight equal
What is unclear is why. I’m more interested in real reasons.. a lot of speculations
France, like other Western nations, has been ramping up production.
40,000 per year is fine in peacetime - France is not in the business of supplying artillery ammunition to every hotspot and minor conflict in the interests of promoting instability, but it is obviously insufficient in the even of a significant conflict.
I expect that all Western nations are looking seriously at a real increase in the amount of ammunition they keep in stockpiles, and at how to enable rapid increases in production when required.
I compare with this particular war. Russia with similar size economy has 50 times more efforts.
But you answered this question.
Peacetime.
You think this war is not about France.
And thats the problem for Ukraine.
I think it is in Ukrainian interest to set a clear expectation on the West:
You help to win or we switch sides and join Russia-China-Iran-N.Korea alliance
Russian economy is much smaller than the French one. The only difference is that a democratic regime which is not at war can not behave as an autocratic one ,not caring for its citizens in any way.
Does it make sense for any country to start a war without any rational motivation and to 800/1000 persons a day to death instead of focusing on the real challenges like fighting global warming , which is the massive real global threat ?
It is very weird to put such a blame on France only.
I also have some suspicions on who is Karabas .
This person seems to come out of nowhere .
Could you, Karabas, be a Russian troll, aiming at creating troubles between the Allies ?
I wouldn’t be surprised
Yes, could.
But you also could.
Your statement that Ukraine should fight alone, France is just a casual supporter if they want hears very offensive for ukrainian ear, especually for guys on a front line for 2 years.
Why they should fight when someone is not.
France is just tge size of Russia by economy or a bit bigger. So its easy to compare that they produce 50 times more ammo.
Most countries do the same. Some even stops support like Slovakia.
And this is critical because someone is dying because of this. I am just getting a bit desperate, seeign people dying at the same time hearing "how dare you are to critisize, its your war, not our" .
My personal opinion: World is very harsh and unfair to Ukraine
France GDP was 2,806 billions $ in 2023
Russian GDP is 2 136 billions $,
For a population de 68 millions for France
And 146 for Russia
So no, sorry , but Russia and France are definitely not about the same economical size.
Per capita gap is massive.
Therefore it is absolutely criminal from Putin to focus his country’s resources on a useless and meaningless war rather than putting all his efforts to upgrade his population’s quality of life
Now, could you tell us where you’re writing from ?
You really sound like a Russian troll to me
It makes no sense to compare capacities of military economies of RU and FRA on $ for $ basis, or even using purchase parity conversion. What's the point to compare values say of unemployment payment or Macca's burger price? How about to compare price and time of construction of a nuclear submarine, a combat aircraft or an artillery piece. Doubt France is anywhere close.
You cant compare like that.
What is the cost of gas, oil, food etc in France compared to Russia ?
Russian foreign exchange reserve is more than double that of France.
France debt to GDP is like 100%, Russia's is 17%.
If France was to be hit with the type of sanctions that Russia was subjected to, France would collapse.
That makes Russia much more self sufficient than France and more independent.
Sorry for comparison France to Russia. I know its offensive.
I know its like compare Bugatti vs rusty nissan 2010.
I am just surprised that old rusty nissan can outproduce 30 bugattis ( 30 nato countries )
Now you want to switch sides?
If France ( just an example ) considers only its own interests and say they are not at war, then Ukraine should consider its interests the same way.
Switching sides might be if full scale analisis shows its in Ukrainian interests. For instance, if other party propose better way ( example, give Crimea without the fight in exchange of establishing Soviet 2 ).
So
1) only ukrainian interest
2) only after analysys
3) only when other party propose more
The true Ukrainian interest at the moment is remaining free and not fall into the grips of a autocratic/ plutocratic/ fascist regime like the a Russian current one.
You are nothing but a Russian troll
Please don't feed the Russian troll. It's not the first time this account posts that Ukraine should "join" Russia..
If this idea is so unpopular. What stops west from winning the war quck by giving Ukraine 10 times more weapons?
Every day some ukrainians are dying because west intentionally do not give enough weapons.
Then I hear "its not our war, we are in peacetime".
So, idea of Ukraine analyse what is in Ukrainian interest is scary for you, but giving weapons - "we dont want".
Also Ukraine demand weapons "how dare you are to demand, you must be happy to get something its not our war, we are in peacetime".
Ukraine should calculate its interests first
The Western help is slow because of weak leaders in some countries, certain politicians on a russian payroll, internal politics etc. The level and rate of military help is not sufficient but it is significant and we are grateful for it.
In regards to Ukraine's interests it is vital to defeat Russia and join Nato to ensure our long-term security. And with your dreams of switching sides to Russia, I'm sorry to say dear Russian friend but we despise Russia, please take back your filthy orcs from out territory and enjoy your slavery yourselves.
The war is not between Russia and the West. Only Russians bring this idea to the table. If Ukraine's interest was to join Russia, why is there a war?
France began increasing production from peacetime levels in 2022, when it became obvious that it was needed. It takes time to ramp up. Overall, Western artillery production is now nearing double what it was pre-war, and still increasing.
My pick is that by late 2024 it will be sufficient.
Russia also started increasing from peace level. And beat France 50 times... not 5%, not 50%, not 500% but 5000%.
How its possible?
( and France is an example, some "supporters" dont wanna support at all, like Slovakia ).
Its just disapointing and its a life of real people. And I feel that other nations just dont care, they care of not spending 1 extra dollar while some dozens if not hundreds are dying somewhere in Avdiivka because someone produces less ammo
Slovakia doesnn't want to support for free, but we will produce and send. biznis at first place.
Russia's "peacetime" production includes supplying large quantities of ammunition anywhere and everywhere they can stir up some trouble.
As a totalitarian an undemocratic state, Russia can just order a production increase in artillery ammunition. As an open and democratic state France cannot do so, just like that. Besides, it takes time and political will to increase production from previous peacetime levels. The needed amount of ammo was not appreciated before, either.
So its so much better to de a totalitarian that its a force multiplier 50 times?
Surely a market economy can do the same. The government merely has to pay and it will happen. Market economy should be more agile and effective than a sclerotic totalitarian one.
Yes, surely they can do the same. In theory.
But democratic systems are not used to such dramatic changes. They have budget practices and rules that they believe they have to follow. Procurement laws, procedures and systems must be adhered to, and so on. It takes time for governments to make decisions, sign contracts and pay. Without contracts armament industries will not build factories, order raw materials, hire workforces. It all takes time. More so since it is only Ukraine that has been directly attacked so far.
As I understand it, western democracies were taken by surprise by the Russian attack. Very few realized that Putin would indeed push the button this time.
Fair point. I hope we don't get invaded one day and find the government bleating that they can't raise the arms because of procurement rules. On the other hand, look what happened when UK government tried a quick response to covid, abandoned its procurement rules and embezzled a fortune.
I personally support the idea that France in particular and Europe in general should allocate much more budget to their defense and give an extra support to Ukraine.
So yes, European defense and defense industry
Should be boosted.
But I also understand the west. If I was living somewhere in Lille, Rotterdam or Sidney, why should I care about some russians killing some Ukrainians?
I would think like "russians are horrible, maniacs, better if they stop killing ukrainians but if it cost me 1 usd to support them - then price is too high, I dont wanna pay, let them kill or use democrathy to freeze the war. Who cares about territories, no impact on my life in Strasbourgh
We should, all of us, signal that Karabas is most probably a Russian troll
Is there any conceivable way that an ammo production line can be "dual-use" ? That is to say, is there any way that an ammo production line can be dedicated to some sort of civilian production that keeps it marginally profitable and keeps key workers employed when wartime production rates are not required ?
Mitsubishi, Siemens, BMW, Krupp, Boeng, Kawasaki, RollsRoys, Porche are all war time companies who found its way in a peace time
To some extent perhaps. But only in theory. The critical capability is the proper and safe production of the explosives, it takes skilled labour and practice. Chemicals and substances for explosives have limited shelf life and this supply chain is sensitive. The problem is, if not done properly, such factories tend to blow up...
Thanks Tom and enjoy your vacaciones and IPMS!
Nice update. I heard about the 1 Corvette hit by the SCALPs, but not any of the others. Looking forward to hearing more on that. I am curious though about how fast and how many of the FrankenSAMs the UA is going to be able to get set up before the "Big One" comes. And in that category, how many can the Russians shoot at once? The limiting factor here isn't so much the number of missiles, its the launch platforms and the UA has done some attrition here (not enough of course).
Thank You for update Tom.
Quotte: "So, the more of them are killed, the better – for the ZSU and Ukraine" and for the all mankind, I would add.
I don't know how you keep up with all of this but it's greatly appreciated. Thank you
Thanks Tom for the report, good to read some good news, lets hope the UAF can hold out at Avdiika, I like reading about whats happening in Dnipro will be looking forward to your nest report
Great update thank you
Thank you for your update Tom and safe travels.
One question: Zaluzhny wrote in his economist essay, that is was his mistake to assume to win the war by attriting the enemy. Do you agree with him on that matter?
What was hit in Skadovsk today I wonder
Many thanks Tom for the report. Hope that you “non-vacation” time out give you some well deserved rest.
Also hope the best for the Adviidka brave defenders, maybe in short time the ZSU may lift the “siege”. The Dnipro crossings may help, if RuZZians send troops that way, taking they from northern sectors.
Russia lost 1000 soldiers yesterday.
That probably means they are attacking hard. Maybe in multiple places.
5 anti-aurcraft loses might mean Ukraine is prepearing either for missle strikes or for planes
Probably exhausting the Russian AD before the mutual winter campaign of strikes on power grid.
Or just to protect their drones operating near front lines. AAs are valuable targets always.
I think Denys got it right. Most of the AA missiles are too expensive to use against cheap $500-$5000 drones
AA are used against a bit bigger drones. I agree they may be cheaper than missiles, but both sides do it - it's important to destroy the enemy recon capabilities. E.g. see https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1639303533307543553
(Similarly, HIMARS are used to target cheap lancet launcher and a few of their operators etc.)
Yes I agree they are used to take out bigger drones as well. It makes a lot of sense to use GMLRS to take out a group launching lancets as well as the spotter drone.
Russian Lancet kamikaze drones were modified to pierce through anti-drone nets. Now it blasts a couple of meters before reaching its target, sending forward a bolt of liquid metal https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/lantset-navchyvsya-znyshhuvaty-zahyshheni-sitkamy-tsili/
Very very unfortunate development!!
Not surprising.
War tends to bring ingenuity on the surface.
I would expect a similar modification to Ukrainian drones as well.
It's a Darwinian evolution thing, I suppose.