49 Comments
May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Tom, thanks for your great job as always!

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May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you so much, Tom, especially the reminder of Bord21Red. Best wishes.

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Have you any news about F16 jets? It seems now the USA have the commaner-in-chief of NATO in Europe they needed. Cavoli declared that English of the Ukrainian pilots is so poor that the delivery of F16 must be postponed.

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author

Nope, no news. But that with English- i.e. language-related issues wouldn't surprise me the least.

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I think it is a mere pretext not to give the jets as long as possible. But nobody except Cavolli was unscrupulous enough to invent such a pretext. I simply cannot imagine a young man capable to operate the jet and unfit to study English.

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He probably can learn English, but its a question of time. Also the vokabularet is a little bit different from «school English». At least. I would assume that. But it is probably also an excuse for delays.

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The pilots had more than a year to learn English in a way appropriate to operate a jet. They did not intend to translate Shakespeare from English into Ukrainian. The real reason for delay is that Biden administration intended to act concerning this cruel war like a manager in the office and after two years of such stupid and immoral conduct still wants to proceed it.

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Well, Biden administration fooling around is certainly part of the problem.

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May 8·edited May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

I truly love the pointed sarcasm you provide in Sarcastosaurus; I think as such it cuts much deeper into those affected. Keep it up! I'm not worried about that though. And, thanks for supporting the Ukrainian troops via the SHARK.

--Signed, a concerned Lithuanian by decent retired US Navy CAPT who has a Lithuanian wife who is just freaking out over Russia's so clear aggression!

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May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you for supporting my 72nd and for your reviews as well.

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Thank you for your service.

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I second the question about the F-16s. I've read that they could appear as early as May 5 but that seems to be some of the usual BS.

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author

I understand that and i'll try to address this in my coming Q&A. That said, have never heard about any date before June.

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"Ukraine will start operating F-16s after Orthodox Easter on May 5, Kyiv has said, as the country contends with devastating Russian bombardment and the long wait for the Western-made fighter jets." Newsweek Published May 01, 2024 at 6:17 AM EDT/Updated May 02, 2024 at 5:15 AM EDT. Like I said, probably BS.

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author

Have unsubscribed the Newsweek already back in 1992 or so: would be VERY surprised to read anything really 'new' in that magazine now, 32 years later...

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Yep, that's wat has been said. That's definitely true, because Ukraine did not start operating F-16 before Orthodox Easter, so it will start doing that someday after that date. Eventually.

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May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Hi Tom

Have you received any feedback describing whether or not the Australian “Slinger” weapons have had any success in shooting down drones?

Brian

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author

Hi Brian,

sorry, nope: not a beep in this regards. Haven't even got any ideas where they might be deployed.

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Thank you for the informative update as usual.

I have a question regarding current Russian ground operations on the tactical level, a topic I feel is rarely covered in depth in favour of discussion of current events.

How are Russian ground forces organized below the divisional level;

how do they organize for assault, how are assaulting units employed and supported before, during, and after their missions,

how integrated are joint and higher level fire assets with assaults,

and how did this evolve since 2023?

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May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks Tom,

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May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Ty for the updates Tom. I’m

Always excited for Your updates and Donald’s write ups. Can’t wait for the next one.

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I also have a question about how the Russian Army is dealing with the loss of small unit, company grade commanders and senior NCOs. Presumably, if those level leaders are accompanying their subordinates in the assaults , then they are being lost at approximately the same rates as the fodder. If they don't accompany, how do the leaders exert control over the assaults?

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May 8·edited May 8

Супроводжують лише молодші командири. Контроль і управління здійснюється з дронів типу Mavic 3.

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The pat answer to why Putin keeps bluffing with nukes might be because it keeps working. It certainly has helped to substantially constrain arms provided to Ukraine. Maybe even more importantly, the endless political nattering that follows each threat helps paint "The West" as weak, feckless, and easily-cowed.

All this bluffing does have a cost though: just like so much of the military hardware Putin is squandering in Ukraine was built by the Soviet Union, he also inherits a legacy of nuclear detente built up over generations. As Putin cheapens the rhetoric around the use of nukes for short-term wins, he simultaneously erodes their utility as a strategic deterrent.

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Putin waves nukes, Biden's waning bladder control threatens to give out in the middle of one of his banal tent pole speeches nobody under 60 bothers to watch. An endless waltz (also a cool anime that really gets the inherent stupidity of war).

Muscovites have the full measure of America's leaders. They in turn love this arrangement because having an easy evil thing to bash in speeches makes "journalists" at CNN and FOX physically aroused.

Meanwhile, a four hour drive from where I sit and type six or so ballistic missile submarines with about 360 active warheads capable of reaching anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere are hanging out in port. Two or three friends are off the coast with another 120+

Wave your fancy nukes around, Putin. Go ahead and use one, even. See how that works out for you. When the choice is death in fire or breaking russia apart forever, which would the average citizen of the empire prefer? And how about the generals under Shagrat and Gorbag, most of whom have families and ostensibly a desire to live longer than Pooty-poo?

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I think the reason for the fear is the old Mutual Assured Destruction doctrine. Both sides have enough Nukes to kill each other and Converse-sko the Earthbound to a flaming ball. Not rationale, but fear isnt.

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Oh damn you autocorrect… didnt write about shoes.

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That's the thing - MAD already rules out an all-out exchange unless somebody goes nuts or panics.

A real-world exchange will look like the tit-for-tat stuff Israel and Iran pull. At the very worst, each side wipes out the other's nuclear silos then sits back and threatens worse if neither pulls back. Most leaders are cowards who only fight if they can send other people to die for them.

This is why I advocate replying to Putin's nuclear bluster in kind. It's all hot air.

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I bet The Sky Crawlers fits better - it's all 'bout the media coverage of the war.

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May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you for the update Tom.

Am I having a deja-vu or is the current situation really like last year. Pressing everything forward to get something before may 9th and on the night before there will be a huge air attack violating the Geneva convention as much as possible.

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author

Something like that, yes.

Just that the last year they were pressing forward T-80s and BMP, nowadays it's golf-carts and motorcycles...

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May 10·edited May 10

I've read that Oryx has counted Russians have lost 64 tanks between 1-8th May, notably increase to previous statistics - similar number were for a months before. So, they still have some armour to waste. If they are are able to replenish that, it's another question ... (I hope not.)

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Thank you. Another fine update (as always).

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May 8Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you fór the update. I am happy the Russian offensive seems to have run out of steam. Love your sarcasm, keep on writing! And Q and A is really intersting.

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