So Russia is now figthing more careful and intelligent? The glide bombs Work enough, lets concentrate on that and not on attacking for another ten meters advance? Not sure if I like that, but the Solution is still obvious. More airdefence. That is clear. How to get that is of course another question. Not easily answered.
Land-based anti-air missiles isn't enough, Ukraine still needs an effective air force to lead these Sukhois away from their country. And it's not obvious that 50-60 F-16s will be able to project enough air power for this.
At an average of 4,000 rounds a day, it is enough to last about 6 months. Do you think that could help a lot to at least try to stop the Russian advance?. . . .
The Russian advance was already stopped - primarily with help of FPV drones and tanks (though at the price of 'unpleasant' tank losses, and quite a number of losses in Ukrainian artillery, too).
The issue now is to find a different way to cause heavy personnel losses to the Russians. Massive UMPKs - like these based on FAB-1500M-54 - are a good example for what's on my mind. JDAMs based on Mk.82 warheads (calibre 250kg), and/or French-made HAMMERs, as currently deployed by Ukrainian MiG-29s, are 'nice', but too few in numbers. Moreover, their effectiveness is not entirely comparable.
Ukraine needs a lots of more firepower.
....and a lots of more air defences: the ZSU can't sustain being bombed like the last few weeks for much longer.
Thanks Tom! Have the Russians improved the range of their gliding bombs? And PSU has even stopped announcing downed jets. The Russians probably changed their tactics without losing on efficiency.
All of these bases around Taganrog are not far away. It’s a pity that western weapons can’t be used on them and it’s my understanding that most of the Groms and Tochika-U missiles targeted at them have been downed by the Russians (there was one early successful strike on Milerovo). Yet, the bases should be a prime target for drone attacks and Ukraine should have tripled its effort to develop a better missile. I mean it’s not about striking Moscow - these are places that are at most 50-60 kms further than the current range of Tochka-U and what is needed is a bit nimbler and faster missile to avoid Russian air defenses.
I think it’s high time for the Substack app to add a tool for editing messages.
Right now, I do not see how could the Russians extend the range of their glide bombs. They have the two versions of kits to make them (MPK and UMPK) and are in the process of introducing the third (UMPK for FAB-1500M-54). These are resulting in weapons with a range of about 60km (if released from around 9,000m altitude).
Unless they develop much more sophisticated kits: that's it. The range is not going to increase.
The problem is that the Ukrainian air defences are too few but to be 'everywhere at the same time', and their max range is limited to around 120-150km.
Up to half that range is 'spent' by the necessity to deploy them deeper behind the frontlines, to avoid the worst of the Russian UAVs and artillery.
The longer the range, the more time the Russians have to react and thus avoid - which in turn is resulting in high expenditure of SAMs, in return for no kills.
It sounds really sad. Fortunately, it is no confirmation of successful Patriot destruction.I understand that every loss is awful , but only 20 dead and 50 wounded from such enormous firepower in day isn't the worst possible scenario. I wonder why did ZSU stopped to shot down Russians if they restored their massive strikes? Let's hope than we will hear about burning Russian plane again
A-ha, Bilenke... I have relatives still there. Interesting what are they targeting there (not the first time already). Didn't find anything interesting there (may be abandoned SAM site, but it's not in Bilenke Pershe, but from the other side of Bilenke (main). I know that Marievka to the north was also hit but there is nothing suspicious on the map there too...
Thanks Tom, this report makes things look not very good for the UAF solders , the Russians are bombing hell out of things, The UAF is going to have to do something about the air attacks
Russians truly excel when the task at hand is to kill as many people as possible to restore „Russian honor“. Imagine if they applied the same ambition and ingenuity to building sewage systems in their villages, or paved streets.
Unlike the West, the Russians are developing their weapons not with the aims like 'kill this guy or strike that tank', but with the aim of killing and destroying, period.
I.e. their way of waging a war can be defined with 'the warfare's lowest common denominator'. What 'kills' and/or 'destroys' is 'good' and 'effective'. That's then manufactured in large numbers. What not - is not.
Thus, if they kill civilians while fighting this way, 'so be it'. They do not consider this their fault.
When they want to kill civilians they're deploying 'other means' for that purpose (see what's going on in occupied parts of Ukraine).
....which in turn means: nope, they are not intentionally striking civilians with their ballistic- and cruise missiles, or with Shaheds, or with glide bombs: actually, these are really 'accidents'.
Be sure: if they would start intentionally deploying such weaponry to intentionally strike Ukrainian civilians, Ukrainian casualty figures would be much, much higher.
(For a 'perfect illustration' for what happens when a military power unleashes all its firepower to kill civilians, see what is Israel doing in the Gaza Strip since five months. Unsurprisingly, the civilian casualty figures there are - proportionally - much higher than those in Ukraine.)
Which means, strangely, that Russians are smarter than Israelis on that particular issue.
Putin & Co think they are refighting a struggle for world dominance, where losing much of the third world is counterproductive. So they try to claim they behave humanely.
But since Israel has no real friends save the US, it pursues goals that ultimately lose it support even from the US.
The Russians and the Israelis are leaning a lot from each other, even copying each other - and that for decades already. In turn, they are teaching others how to do it their way, too.
Even if the Israelis might appear as 'ahead' in that discipline, both are excelling in PR-warfare. They are excelling in selling their ideologies, reasoning and thus (what they consider) their 'morality' to their own public, and to supporters abroad. Through this, they are aggregating incredible volumes of public support for their actions, irrespectivelly of what are they doing (and, even more so: irrespectively of consequences of their deeds). This is going so far that meanwhile it doesn't matter what kind of atrocity they commit: there is always not one, but there are dozens of excuses to white-wash these.
(Above all: their purpose is 'holier than holy', and thus 'can't be wrong'....)
Ironically, consequences are exactly the same - especially so at their domestic front. Both Putin and Netanyahu are 'mass-manufacturing mass-murderers', in turn making sure the mass-murderers they have manufactured are going to continue supporting their own survival - because these mass-murderers are indoctrinated not only about the holy purpose of their deeds, but also that if Putin or Netanyahu falls, they're going to fall too.
....and that such ideologies are 'trumping strategy and politics' is a 'lesson' Israel and Russia are teaching others for decades already, too. For example, the Israeli victory in the Six Days War/June 1967 Arab Israeli war, taught this lesson to the Saudis. In reaction, they began funding Madrassas and spreading Wahhabism all over the world, resulting in emergence of 'extremist Islam' and associated terror of the last 30 years. Another excellent example would be Assadism, which managed to convince not only its own public, but large segments of the public abroad, that its own downfall would be equal to both a downfall of the Christianity in Syria, plus the downfall of civilisation - in Syria, and in the Middle East.
...precisely that is why the West (nearly all of which remains staunchly supportive for Israel, regardless what is this doing; i.e. this is not limited to the USA alone) should have consistently insisted on application of its own standards - when it comes to international laws and regulations. Instead, it repeatedly violated these laws on its own (thus providing both precedents and pretext), and continues blindly supporting Israel while complaining about Russia, although the two are doing exactly the same - and that both to their opponents, and to their supporters in the West, too.
....and when one ignores and/or violates own laws to such a degree, then there is no reason to complain about somebody else doing that.
I've long been grimly amused that no one in the English-speaking world is willing to say the truth out loud - Netanyahu and Putin are allies. The two talk. That's how Israel can constantly bomb stuff in Syria without having to pull SEAD.
But Americans in particular are so stuck in their culture wars that anyone who questions any aspect of the national mythos is automatically an extremists backing the other side. Or worse, is simply independent. Truth is what your side's leaders say.
Tom, the civilian casualties in Gaza are not just proportionally greater but absolutely.
According to the UN (OHCHR) there were some 10 thousand civilian deaths in Ukraine and some 20 thousand injured. And that is in a full scale war, lasting 2 years with both sides having tanks, IFVs, artillery, aircraft, missiles, drones, bombs...
In Gaza, Israel has killed 30 thousand civilians and another 60k have been injured in a few months.
And what shall the the leader of the free world, Joe Biden do about it ?
Nothing, the US is supplying Israel with those same bombs.
How about Ursula von der Leyen, The Just ? Maybe she will let out a roar, a call for sanctions to be imposed on Israel and the US ? No ?
Surely the court in Hague will indict Netanyahu for war crimes and ethnic cleansing as well as Biden for providing Israel with the military, economic, political
and media support ? No ?
Maybe, Macron The Courageous will personally lead the French foreign legion to protect the hospitals and churches in Gaza ?
No, none of that is going to happen. As you say, we hear only crickets.
Many of the civilian casualties in Ukraine come from Mariupol - a city of 70K. Other towns impacted by the war were mostly evacuated before the combat took place.
As Gaza is 2M, cover-bombing it causes high casualties. I believe the relative casualties should compare Mariupol and Gaza.
I think you should take a MUCH CLOSER look at what the Israelis are doing in the Gaza Strip.
What the Russians are doing in Ukraine stands no comparison. It stands no chance of comparison to _complete eradication_ of both the population and all man-made constructions.
I remember seeing some pics with 2 Ukr Himars beeing unloaded in a US Airport, last month. I don't think they brought them al the way there to install leather seats and mahogany dashboards or because of a flat tire.
Yup, one was missing a wheel but the other one was in pretty bad shape, shrapnel damage at least to the HULIU, PSU and Position Navigation Unit. So, I guess the one shown in the clip from few days ago was not the first one to be hit. But all this is not what really matters, loosing 1-2 Himars is as important as that ill fated Rabotino 20x10 km penetration on a 1200+km front. The fact that they had to ship them all the way to US for repairs, that is the fact that matters.
Most of that appeared like mine-damage to me - which, considering the extension of mining all over Ukraine, is no surprise.
And the fact they've had to ship them to the USA is a logical consequence of systemic incompetence in the West: Ukrainians are given a bit of this and a bit of that - without any kind of support infrastructure necessary to keep the vehicles in question maintained, or at least to enable repairs.
1) Which system detects the long-range SAMs that are fired towards the Russian aircraft? A50s are not there. Is it possible to blind it? If it is the airplane itself that detects being tracked by a missile's radar, can the missile first fly by coordinates and turn its radar only for the terminal stage?
2) If Russian jets are able to reliably dodge SAMs, is it possible for F16s to reliably avoid long-range air-to-air missiles?
UA has no chance in symmetrical war. Activities should be asymmetrical, like tonight for example: 50+ UAVs attacked Beriev plant (Be200 planes, modernization of A50/50U/100 planes), around 10 targeted. Part of equipment was damaged/destroyed, so russkies would need certain time (weeks, months, years) to recover.
UA produces enough UAVs to hit most productive and industrialized part of Russia, so metallurgical, chemical, optical, polymer plants have to be destroyed, damaged, stopped. More diversion groups, more agents and saboteurs. Pure extended partisan tactics. UA is very strong in such actions
Yes, they only care about elections. He's also been entertaining Samuel Charap at the White House as well. Charap blocked me on Twitter when I asked him to apologize for his articles. Very brittle men who have sold out our country.
Russian military is getting more resourceful by the day. They still have plenty of incompetent officers aber slowly but surely they are getting more dangerous.
By the time Macron shows up with his Grande Armée, Russia won't even have to resort to nukes.
At this point, even Ukraine with its logistical problems could wipe the floor with the combined European NATO militaries.
Tom do you have any info on the rumoured new Russian PGM ?
war does that to an army - it cuts the bullshit, drastically.
And it seems that VKS are getting their act together, and this will cause great difficulties with Ukraine. Having a few ground-based air defense systems without any air superiority isn't enough. Ukraine needs desperately to rebuild their air force, and doing this into the middle of such a large war is quite hard (it's already difficult during peacetime)
So Russia is now figthing more careful and intelligent? The glide bombs Work enough, lets concentrate on that and not on attacking for another ten meters advance? Not sure if I like that, but the Solution is still obvious. More airdefence. That is clear. How to get that is of course another question. Not easily answered.
Land-based anti-air missiles isn't enough, Ukraine still needs an effective air force to lead these Sukhois away from their country. And it's not obvious that 50-60 F-16s will be able to project enough air power for this.
That's preliminary bombardment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War#Soviet_offensive_on_the_Karelian_Isthmus
Also how to get that air defence close enough to the frontline to be effective whilst not becoming sitting targets for drones.
If there is an increese the last week or so, it could also be a "revenge" for the naval and air losses of the last week.
There's - definitely - a significant increase in the number of glide-bomb strikes. A deployment of 106 has been reported on 7 March.
Good night Tom, Thanks for the update . . . Financing for 800 rounds is already available according to the Czech president. (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/financing-set-buy-ammunition-ukraine-czech-president-says-2024-03-07/)
At an average of 4,000 rounds a day, it is enough to last about 6 months. Do you think that could help a lot to at least try to stop the Russian advance?. . . .
in fact, there is money only for 300k yet. But it's quite enough while they are gathering funding for the other part.
Thanks Voyan . .
The Russian advance was already stopped - primarily with help of FPV drones and tanks (though at the price of 'unpleasant' tank losses, and quite a number of losses in Ukrainian artillery, too).
The issue now is to find a different way to cause heavy personnel losses to the Russians. Massive UMPKs - like these based on FAB-1500M-54 - are a good example for what's on my mind. JDAMs based on Mk.82 warheads (calibre 250kg), and/or French-made HAMMERs, as currently deployed by Ukrainian MiG-29s, are 'nice', but too few in numbers. Moreover, their effectiveness is not entirely comparable.
Ukraine needs a lots of more firepower.
....and a lots of more air defences: the ZSU can't sustain being bombed like the last few weeks for much longer.
Thanks Tom! Have the Russians improved the range of their gliding bombs? And PSU has even stopped announcing downed jets. The Russians probably changed their tactics without losing on efficiency.
All of these bases around Taganrog are not far away. It’s a pity that western weapons can’t be used on them and it’s my understanding that most of the Groms and Tochika-U missiles targeted at them have been downed by the Russians (there was one early successful strike on Milerovo). Yet, the bases should be a prime target for drone attacks and Ukraine should have tripled its effort to develop a better missile. I mean it’s not about striking Moscow - these are places that are at most 50-60 kms further than the current range of Tochka-U and what is needed is a bit nimbler and faster missile to avoid Russian air defenses.
I think it’s high time for the Substack app to add a tool for editing messages.
Right now, I do not see how could the Russians extend the range of their glide bombs. They have the two versions of kits to make them (MPK and UMPK) and are in the process of introducing the third (UMPK for FAB-1500M-54). These are resulting in weapons with a range of about 60km (if released from around 9,000m altitude).
Unless they develop much more sophisticated kits: that's it. The range is not going to increase.
The problem is that the Ukrainian air defences are too few but to be 'everywhere at the same time', and their max range is limited to around 120-150km.
Up to half that range is 'spent' by the necessity to deploy them deeper behind the frontlines, to avoid the worst of the Russian UAVs and artillery.
The longer the range, the more time the Russians have to react and thus avoid - which in turn is resulting in high expenditure of SAMs, in return for no kills.
It sounds really sad. Fortunately, it is no confirmation of successful Patriot destruction.I understand that every loss is awful , but only 20 dead and 50 wounded from such enormous firepower in day isn't the worst possible scenario. I wonder why did ZSU stopped to shot down Russians if they restored their massive strikes? Let's hope than we will hear about burning Russian plane again
Similar heavy bombardments were used to break through fortifications in Winter War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War#Soviet_offensive_on_the_Karelian_Isthmus
A-ha, Bilenke... I have relatives still there. Interesting what are they targeting there (not the first time already). Didn't find anything interesting there (may be abandoned SAM site, but it's not in Bilenke Pershe, but from the other side of Bilenke (main). I know that Marievka to the north was also hit but there is nothing suspicious on the map there too...
Thanks Tom, this report makes things look not very good for the UAF solders , the Russians are bombing hell out of things, The UAF is going to have to do something about the air attacks
Спасибо, Том.
Russians truly excel when the task at hand is to kill as many people as possible to restore „Russian honor“. Imagine if they applied the same ambition and ingenuity to building sewage systems in their villages, or paved streets.
Unlike the West, the Russians are developing their weapons not with the aims like 'kill this guy or strike that tank', but with the aim of killing and destroying, period.
I.e. their way of waging a war can be defined with 'the warfare's lowest common denominator'. What 'kills' and/or 'destroys' is 'good' and 'effective'. That's then manufactured in large numbers. What not - is not.
Thus, if they kill civilians while fighting this way, 'so be it'. They do not consider this their fault.
When they want to kill civilians they're deploying 'other means' for that purpose (see what's going on in occupied parts of Ukraine).
....which in turn means: nope, they are not intentionally striking civilians with their ballistic- and cruise missiles, or with Shaheds, or with glide bombs: actually, these are really 'accidents'.
Be sure: if they would start intentionally deploying such weaponry to intentionally strike Ukrainian civilians, Ukrainian casualty figures would be much, much higher.
(For a 'perfect illustration' for what happens when a military power unleashes all its firepower to kill civilians, see what is Israel doing in the Gaza Strip since five months. Unsurprisingly, the civilian casualty figures there are - proportionally - much higher than those in Ukraine.)
Which means, strangely, that Russians are smarter than Israelis on that particular issue.
Putin & Co think they are refighting a struggle for world dominance, where losing much of the third world is counterproductive. So they try to claim they behave humanely.
But since Israel has no real friends save the US, it pursues goals that ultimately lose it support even from the US.
Ideology thus trumps strategy and policy.
I'm using "Israelis" to mean Bibi's regime.
But 72% support cutting off food to Gaza.
The Russians and the Israelis are leaning a lot from each other, even copying each other - and that for decades already. In turn, they are teaching others how to do it their way, too.
Even if the Israelis might appear as 'ahead' in that discipline, both are excelling in PR-warfare. They are excelling in selling their ideologies, reasoning and thus (what they consider) their 'morality' to their own public, and to supporters abroad. Through this, they are aggregating incredible volumes of public support for their actions, irrespectivelly of what are they doing (and, even more so: irrespectively of consequences of their deeds). This is going so far that meanwhile it doesn't matter what kind of atrocity they commit: there is always not one, but there are dozens of excuses to white-wash these.
(Above all: their purpose is 'holier than holy', and thus 'can't be wrong'....)
Ironically, consequences are exactly the same - especially so at their domestic front. Both Putin and Netanyahu are 'mass-manufacturing mass-murderers', in turn making sure the mass-murderers they have manufactured are going to continue supporting their own survival - because these mass-murderers are indoctrinated not only about the holy purpose of their deeds, but also that if Putin or Netanyahu falls, they're going to fall too.
....and that such ideologies are 'trumping strategy and politics' is a 'lesson' Israel and Russia are teaching others for decades already, too. For example, the Israeli victory in the Six Days War/June 1967 Arab Israeli war, taught this lesson to the Saudis. In reaction, they began funding Madrassas and spreading Wahhabism all over the world, resulting in emergence of 'extremist Islam' and associated terror of the last 30 years. Another excellent example would be Assadism, which managed to convince not only its own public, but large segments of the public abroad, that its own downfall would be equal to both a downfall of the Christianity in Syria, plus the downfall of civilisation - in Syria, and in the Middle East.
...precisely that is why the West (nearly all of which remains staunchly supportive for Israel, regardless what is this doing; i.e. this is not limited to the USA alone) should have consistently insisted on application of its own standards - when it comes to international laws and regulations. Instead, it repeatedly violated these laws on its own (thus providing both precedents and pretext), and continues blindly supporting Israel while complaining about Russia, although the two are doing exactly the same - and that both to their opponents, and to their supporters in the West, too.
....and when one ignores and/or violates own laws to such a degree, then there is no reason to complain about somebody else doing that.
I've long been grimly amused that no one in the English-speaking world is willing to say the truth out loud - Netanyahu and Putin are allies. The two talk. That's how Israel can constantly bomb stuff in Syria without having to pull SEAD.
But Americans in particular are so stuck in their culture wars that anyone who questions any aspect of the national mythos is automatically an extremists backing the other side. Or worse, is simply independent. Truth is what your side's leaders say.
Tom, the civilian casualties in Gaza are not just proportionally greater but absolutely.
According to the UN (OHCHR) there were some 10 thousand civilian deaths in Ukraine and some 20 thousand injured. And that is in a full scale war, lasting 2 years with both sides having tanks, IFVs, artillery, aircraft, missiles, drones, bombs...
In Gaza, Israel has killed 30 thousand civilians and another 60k have been injured in a few months.
And what shall the the leader of the free world, Joe Biden do about it ?
Nothing, the US is supplying Israel with those same bombs.
How about Ursula von der Leyen, The Just ? Maybe she will let out a roar, a call for sanctions to be imposed on Israel and the US ? No ?
Surely the court in Hague will indict Netanyahu for war crimes and ethnic cleansing as well as Biden for providing Israel with the military, economic, political
and media support ? No ?
Maybe, Macron The Courageous will personally lead the French foreign legion to protect the hospitals and churches in Gaza ?
No, none of that is going to happen. As you say, we hear only crickets.
Many of the civilian casualties in Ukraine come from Mariupol - a city of 70K. Other towns impacted by the war were mostly evacuated before the combat took place.
As Gaza is 2M, cover-bombing it causes high casualties. I believe the relative casualties should compare Mariupol and Gaza.
I think you should take a MUCH CLOSER look at what the Israelis are doing in the Gaza Strip.
What the Russians are doing in Ukraine stands no comparison. It stands no chance of comparison to _complete eradication_ of both the population and all man-made constructions.
I remember seeing some pics with 2 Ukr Himars beeing unloaded in a US Airport, last month. I don't think they brought them al the way there to install leather seats and mahogany dashboards or because of a flat tire.
They've been brought to the USA for repairs.
Yup, one was missing a wheel but the other one was in pretty bad shape, shrapnel damage at least to the HULIU, PSU and Position Navigation Unit. So, I guess the one shown in the clip from few days ago was not the first one to be hit. But all this is not what really matters, loosing 1-2 Himars is as important as that ill fated Rabotino 20x10 km penetration on a 1200+km front. The fact that they had to ship them all the way to US for repairs, that is the fact that matters.
Most of that appeared like mine-damage to me - which, considering the extension of mining all over Ukraine, is no surprise.
And the fact they've had to ship them to the USA is a logical consequence of systemic incompetence in the West: Ukrainians are given a bit of this and a bit of that - without any kind of support infrastructure necessary to keep the vehicles in question maintained, or at least to enable repairs.
Might be the result of a mine, yes. Never mind the Ukr, whole fucking Nato Europe can't service a damn Himars.
Very interesting old news. Until the repairs, first of all Europe can't produce shells for Himars at the moment; that's more important.
HIMARS uses reactive ammo, rockets or missiles.
Thank you Tom. It is highly irritating when the Russian army/Air force do something right
Tragically, we're going to see a lot more of that this year....
1) Which system detects the long-range SAMs that are fired towards the Russian aircraft? A50s are not there. Is it possible to blind it? If it is the airplane itself that detects being tracked by a missile's radar, can the missile first fly by coordinates and turn its radar only for the terminal stage?
2) If Russian jets are able to reliably dodge SAMs, is it possible for F16s to reliably avoid long-range air-to-air missiles?
Thank you for the update. Is there any remedy for the glide bombs except shooting down Russian jets? And how it can be done if so?
UA has no chance in symmetrical war. Activities should be asymmetrical, like tonight for example: 50+ UAVs attacked Beriev plant (Be200 planes, modernization of A50/50U/100 planes), around 10 targeted. Part of equipment was damaged/destroyed, so russkies would need certain time (weeks, months, years) to recover.
UA produces enough UAVs to hit most productive and industrialized part of Russia, so metallurgical, chemical, optical, polymer plants have to be destroyed, damaged, stopped. More diversion groups, more agents and saboteurs. Pure extended partisan tactics. UA is very strong in such actions
Sullivan must be happy with this news.
I'm sure he's at least 'pleased' - because, 'everything is developing according to plan'...
Yes, they only care about elections. He's also been entertaining Samuel Charap at the White House as well. Charap blocked me on Twitter when I asked him to apologize for his articles. Very brittle men who have sold out our country.
Russian military is getting more resourceful by the day. They still have plenty of incompetent officers aber slowly but surely they are getting more dangerous.
By the time Macron shows up with his Grande Armée, Russia won't even have to resort to nukes.
At this point, even Ukraine with its logistical problems could wipe the floor with the combined European NATO militaries.
Tom do you have any info on the rumoured new Russian PGM ?
Some kind of glide bomb with an engine.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/1b9rg41/ru_pov_a_new_type_of_upmc_bomb_was_found_by/
https://t.me/grey_zone/22290?comment=4151976
They say it's similar to GLSDB.
war does that to an army - it cuts the bullshit, drastically.
And it seems that VKS are getting their act together, and this will cause great difficulties with Ukraine. Having a few ground-based air defense systems without any air superiority isn't enough. Ukraine needs desperately to rebuild their air force, and doing this into the middle of such a large war is quite hard (it's already difficult during peacetime)