Hello everybody! Today, I’m ‘a little bit mad’, so let me get straight to the ‘Point 1’. Certain Tsarev - an Ukrainian with the IQ matching that of my boxer shorts that fled to Russia back in 2015 - has figured out how to post something highly interesting on the Telegram:
I am optimistic- Western governments will declare it an intentional act by Russia and then respond as passionately as they did after 9/11.
Sadly, our response to the war has been disappointing. The lives lost because of our cowardice when confronted with obvious evil is a disgrace to Western society.
I have an observation or its just my perception that the majority of the ruzzians do not say with what Ukrainians blew up the dam. They just say “Ukrainians blew up” and that’s it. No ideas or hypothesis shared of how it was blew up.
And the most sad is that the ruzzians leverage all propagandists and agents they have in west. Most obvious case is Tucker Carlson and Musk. Tucker with no evidence just told that it was Ukrainians who blew up the dam and Musk shared that video with the comment it was good and fair point or smth like that. And people seriously considering that it was Ukrainians who blew up the dam and they do not need any proofs for that. This is very sad.
Tom, thank you for your great work, to bring some light to the dark. I do not know if I see something wrong, but the pictures and videos do not make sense to me. In the last aerial picture in the above post, the dam is clearly broken and missing to the edge of the (shipping) canal. In all the videos after the break, there is a wide section with buildings and road there at the right side, still solid and water level lower than those parts of the dam. Where did all that go, was there a second explosion later while the day?
The last photo.... the Maxar photo, is shown half the Spillway and almost all of the Turbine Building gone.
Is it shown 'different effects' than early photos? Yes, sure. Mind that with the time, water masses are moving everything in their way - out of the way. No matter how heavy and/or massive the constructions in question might be.
No, the thing is that water is very powerfull.. once a collapse in the dam is set in motion the sheer load of the water gushing downstream can deform and destabilize the foundations and erode away huge volumes of earth.. in this case you can see trough some photoes and i've seen a video as well how the water, once it breached trough the turbine building has carved it's way eroding all that portion of the embankment.. we might see the shipping canal as well as other portions of the structure collapse and be swept away in the following days as well since the water is still carving with very strong pressure..
Macron posted in Twitter yesterday that "France condemns this atrocious act, which is endangering populations. Within the next few hours, we will send aid to meet immediate needs."
Is there even an understanding the population is not just 'endangered'? People have already died by drowning, elderly people who could not leave their houses.. This is a rhetorical question of course...
And what gets me the most is zero actions so far. At least we don't see them. And it's been almost 3 days..
....and like when their Su-24 was splashed by Turks over north-western Syria, back in November 2015: 17 different versions in 3 days... anything - just no truth.
I could come up with a few other methods of destroying that dam, so I think it is fair to say that the current theory of pre-placed Russian explosives is not the only feasible means of achieving that result. It was almost certainly a Russian act, just saying it could be achieved in other ways.
Jun 8, 2023·edited Jun 8, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Thank you for your update, Tom. Even though, Tcariov was a member of Ukrainian parliament (Rada) back 9 years ago, I can hardly name him as Ukrainian. It is typical pudding whore. ( Sorry for my French :-)
The irony is: this won't have any effect on the offensive. It's really designed to say: "see? However bad our army was destroyed, we still inflicted horrible damage on Ukraine--or did we?" (Smiley face optional)
The only silver lining is that, once Russia is defeated, it's hard to see how Putin stays in power. And, as they say, there is no Russia without Putin.
That mindset is Russian people mindset. Removing it equals removing Russian nation. I mean that without chauvinism and imperialism people living on that land will not be 'Russian' anymore.
Well, here in Austria, we've had more than enough similar jerks all over the place, back in the first half of the 20th Century. Had to learn our lessons (and, to make sure: too many haven't learnt it until this very day....)
While I think you are correct, that HIMARS explanation is ridiculous, it makes zero sense that the Russians destroyed a dam they control which resulted in a flood which primarily affected land they control. If they wanted to flood land to prevent Ukrainian movement, all they had to do was open floodgates. Destroying it, removes their ability to control water level. Plus one of Russia stated goals is to insure supply of water to Crimea. Destroying the dam puts this at risk. Makes a lot more sense either the dam failed due to prior damage and lack of maintenance or Ukraine did it to drop water levels for an invasion alter in the summer. Strikes me as Nordstream II. Russia blowing up a pipeline they could simply close a valve to never made sense. I get that we all hate Putin, but that doesn’t mean we should check our brains at the door and not think about who benefits from an action.
Crimea survived from 2014 to 2022 without the canal., also the reservoir serves canals that irrigate most of southern Ucraine, so why they will destroy their own agriculture? More Ruzzian bs.
Destroyin the Dam will allow the Russians to move troops for the Jerson river to Zaporiya, Bakhmut and Belgorod. And sent a message that Russia will not stop at nothing to save Crimea, next step nucler weapons.
Good points that it impacts Ukraine as well, but why blow it up? Doing that is a one way ticket - irreversible. Far simpler to open flood gates and achieve the same result if the point is to demonstrate Russian resolve or to allow troop movement. I’d much rather be able to control the river level v. accepting whatever level the rains happen to provide.
From a military engineer with 30 years of experience:
The strongest part of the dam was the turbine generator building, the weakest part was the sluice gates. Unless you used a Barnes Wallace bouncing bomb that would burrow into the water before exploding, in order to have water tamping of the bomb,setting off explosive in the air, which would have no tamping, would have little or no effect on the sluice gates other than possible destroying their operating mechanism. As I said the turbine hall of the dam had to be extremely well built to withstand the water pressures due to the turbines being below minimum water level. Un tamped explosives, i.e., external and in the open air would be even less effective against the turbine house than against the sluice gates. Because of the heavy construction of the turbine house though the turbine house structure would provide the necessary tamping effect to destroy the turbine house. Photos clearly show significant portions of the turbine house were destroyed. Given the available weapons and explosive weights there is no possibility that an exterior explosion from a missile or bomb attack could cause the damage sustained by the turbine house. Of course once the dam was breached then the water would continue to expand the breach. It also appears from the available photos that the reinforce earthen portions of the dam were not where the original breach occurred. The other issue people are dwelling on is that there has been no maintenance for over a year. The lack of maintenance could explained a failure of the reinforced earthen portions of the dam but the physical integrity of the sluice gates and turbine house would seriously or significantly effected even after several years.
....of course, you're free to continue trying to convince me, it was Satanic Biden-Gremlins on dope, cultivated in Ukrainian bio-labs because Ukraine is benefiting from such creatures - even if only on straight days and weekends...
Factual and cool to the point. Respect! Great analysis.
The silence from western governments is deafening.
....and then they're going to be busy finding something else to happen...
I am optimistic- Western governments will declare it an intentional act by Russia and then respond as passionately as they did after 9/11.
Sadly, our response to the war has been disappointing. The lives lost because of our cowardice when confronted with obvious evil is a disgrace to Western society.
I have an observation or its just my perception that the majority of the ruzzians do not say with what Ukrainians blew up the dam. They just say “Ukrainians blew up” and that’s it. No ideas or hypothesis shared of how it was blew up.
And the most sad is that the ruzzians leverage all propagandists and agents they have in west. Most obvious case is Tucker Carlson and Musk. Tucker with no evidence just told that it was Ukrainians who blew up the dam and Musk shared that video with the comment it was good and fair point or smth like that. And people seriously considering that it was Ukrainians who blew up the dam and they do not need any proofs for that. This is very sad.
I have witnessed three different versions of events introduced by the ruzzian affiliated actors:
1. Olkha rockets, State news agency RIA immediately after the event
2. Natural destruction due to previous damage by HIMARS rockets last year.
3. Ukraine submersible drone triggering detonation of the explosives left by someone inside
Now this is the fourth one - combat divers...
Would you say it is "damning" evidence?
It is 'enough' evidence. At least I need no more.
Tom. Hello.
This makes the most sense I have read since the event. Can you not post this on FB??
I would love to see this on "Global Military" site.
There's a link on my FB-account:
https://www.facebook.com/keksifarm.hayday/
Tom, thank you for your great work, to bring some light to the dark. I do not know if I see something wrong, but the pictures and videos do not make sense to me. In the last aerial picture in the above post, the dam is clearly broken and missing to the edge of the (shipping) canal. In all the videos after the break, there is a wide section with buildings and road there at the right side, still solid and water level lower than those parts of the dam. Where did all that go, was there a second explosion later while the day?
I'm trying to understand what do you mean...
The last photo.... the Maxar photo, is shown half the Spillway and almost all of the Turbine Building gone.
Is it shown 'different effects' than early photos? Yes, sure. Mind that with the time, water masses are moving everything in their way - out of the way. No matter how heavy and/or massive the constructions in question might be.
No, the thing is that water is very powerfull.. once a collapse in the dam is set in motion the sheer load of the water gushing downstream can deform and destabilize the foundations and erode away huge volumes of earth.. in this case you can see trough some photoes and i've seen a video as well how the water, once it breached trough the turbine building has carved it's way eroding all that portion of the embankment.. we might see the shipping canal as well as other portions of the structure collapse and be swept away in the following days as well since the water is still carving with very strong pressure..
Yup, that's a 'continuing process': the water masses are going to wash away ever more of the structure.
Oleg Tsarev, one of the worst kind of traitors
Macron posted in Twitter yesterday that "France condemns this atrocious act, which is endangering populations. Within the next few hours, we will send aid to meet immediate needs."
Is there even an understanding the population is not just 'endangered'? People have already died by drowning, elderly people who could not leave their houses.. This is a rhetorical question of course...
And what gets me the most is zero actions so far. At least we don't see them. And it's been almost 3 days..
A bit confused about the word "Шушенской" (Shushenskoi) on that pic (center left). Does it have anything to do with the other dam in Russia? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayano-Shushenskaya_Dam
Have checked that, but nope: the Shushenskaya has entirely different construction.
Thank you.
I cannot see any other explanation but intentional explosive demolition for the destruction of two different sections of the dam at the same time.
BTW - I have witnessed three different consequent versions of events introduced by the ruzzian affiliated actors:
1. Olkha rockets (immediately after the event)
2. Natural destruction due to previous damage by HIMARS rockets last year.
3. Ukraine submersible drone triggering detonation of the explosives left by someone inside
Now this is the fourth one - combat divers...
Just like with the Malaysian boing - ruzzians dropping track load of versions to muddy the waters.
....and like when their Su-24 was splashed by Turks over north-western Syria, back in November 2015: 17 different versions in 3 days... anything - just no truth.
I could come up with a few other methods of destroying that dam, so I think it is fair to say that the current theory of pre-placed Russian explosives is not the only feasible means of achieving that result. It was almost certainly a Russian act, just saying it could be achieved in other ways.
Certainly. Like strike from Dr. Evil Ion Canon.
My cats say it is possible.
Fiat verum
Ceterum censeo Russian esse delendam
Thank you for your update, Tom. Even though, Tcariov was a member of Ukrainian parliament (Rada) back 9 years ago, I can hardly name him as Ukrainian. It is typical pudding whore. ( Sorry for my French :-)
Best analysis I've seen so far.
The irony is: this won't have any effect on the offensive. It's really designed to say: "see? However bad our army was destroyed, we still inflicted horrible damage on Ukraine--or did we?" (Smiley face optional)
The only silver lining is that, once Russia is defeated, it's hard to see how Putin stays in power. And, as they say, there is no Russia without Putin.
Ceterum censeo Russia esse delendam
I'm not after all of Russia nor every Russian - but after the Russian armed forces.
That body of people, that mindset, must be exterminated. Once and forever. Nothing else is going to make this war 'successful'.
That mindset is Russian people mindset. Removing it equals removing Russian nation. I mean that without chauvinism and imperialism people living on that land will not be 'Russian' anymore.
Well, here in Austria, we've had more than enough similar jerks all over the place, back in the first half of the 20th Century. Had to learn our lessons (and, to make sure: too many haven't learnt it until this very day....)
It's time for the Russians to learn their.
While I think you are correct, that HIMARS explanation is ridiculous, it makes zero sense that the Russians destroyed a dam they control which resulted in a flood which primarily affected land they control. If they wanted to flood land to prevent Ukrainian movement, all they had to do was open floodgates. Destroying it, removes their ability to control water level. Plus one of Russia stated goals is to insure supply of water to Crimea. Destroying the dam puts this at risk. Makes a lot more sense either the dam failed due to prior damage and lack of maintenance or Ukraine did it to drop water levels for an invasion alter in the summer. Strikes me as Nordstream II. Russia blowing up a pipeline they could simply close a valve to never made sense. I get that we all hate Putin, but that doesn’t mean we should check our brains at the door and not think about who benefits from an action.
Crimea survived from 2014 to 2022 without the canal., also the reservoir serves canals that irrigate most of southern Ucraine, so why they will destroy their own agriculture? More Ruzzian bs.
Destroyin the Dam will allow the Russians to move troops for the Jerson river to Zaporiya, Bakhmut and Belgorod. And sent a message that Russia will not stop at nothing to save Crimea, next step nucler weapons.
Good points that it impacts Ukraine as well, but why blow it up? Doing that is a one way ticket - irreversible. Far simpler to open flood gates and achieve the same result if the point is to demonstrate Russian resolve or to allow troop movement. I’d much rather be able to control the river level v. accepting whatever level the rains happen to provide.
From a military engineer with 30 years of experience:
The strongest part of the dam was the turbine generator building, the weakest part was the sluice gates. Unless you used a Barnes Wallace bouncing bomb that would burrow into the water before exploding, in order to have water tamping of the bomb,setting off explosive in the air, which would have no tamping, would have little or no effect on the sluice gates other than possible destroying their operating mechanism. As I said the turbine hall of the dam had to be extremely well built to withstand the water pressures due to the turbines being below minimum water level. Un tamped explosives, i.e., external and in the open air would be even less effective against the turbine house than against the sluice gates. Because of the heavy construction of the turbine house though the turbine house structure would provide the necessary tamping effect to destroy the turbine house. Photos clearly show significant portions of the turbine house were destroyed. Given the available weapons and explosive weights there is no possibility that an exterior explosion from a missile or bomb attack could cause the damage sustained by the turbine house. Of course once the dam was breached then the water would continue to expand the breach. It also appears from the available photos that the reinforce earthen portions of the dam were not where the original breach occurred. The other issue people are dwelling on is that there has been no maintenance for over a year. The lack of maintenance could explained a failure of the reinforced earthen portions of the dam but the physical integrity of the sluice gates and turbine house would seriously or significantly effected even after several years.
....of course, you're free to continue trying to convince me, it was Satanic Biden-Gremlins on dope, cultivated in Ukrainian bio-labs because Ukraine is benefiting from such creatures - even if only on straight days and weekends...