Hope they can do as much damage as possible to Russia in this instance. At this point, I don't think it's possible to ki- kuddle more Russian's faster than they can replace them. Ukraine keeps expecting to fight with one hand tied to their back while Russia gets to act like they have any right to complain when Ukraine does something.
To hell with the nuclear threats, I hope they gobble up half of Russia's territory
"govern in interest of the people, instead of the oligarchy" - those who oppose arm deliveries to Ukraine say the same exactly same words. So, any remarks about "interests of people" are completely pointless. Different people have different interests. There are quite a few citizens of EU and USA who are not politicians and would change democracy to totalitarianism happily. (Even if it would lead to their personal economic decline.)
Sure. Problem: the people who want to switch over to totalitarianism are no the majority - otherwise the country would be a dictatorship since longer.
On the contrary, they're relatively few super-rich, who became as rich precisely because the politicians they're bribing are administering in their interest and thus they and the corporations they're running are paying next to no income tax.
With other words: nope, they're not 'the people' as defined in - for example - the Declaration of Independence.
What we see in Ukraine, and probably in Russia, is that the older generation is generally nostalgic about Stalin and Soviet Union. That may be because they spent their best years in the totalitarian society, or because they don't feel that have much weight now.
See, they cannot influence the way the life runs now, but they vote in elections, and they are many.
In the theories of the formation of elites by Mosk, Pareto and Michels, it has long been said how the interaction between the elites and the people takes place. In my opinion, their theories are more true. Regardless of the right, left or other ideology, sooner or later all this turns into an oligarchy. Well, the people never decide anything. The electoral system in the modern world is pure profanation. To vote for such elites is to consent to one's own robbery.
Ukraine was ruled by an oligarchy - but yes, the people decided, and if the government turned against the people - the people revolted and overthrew it (not without the help of rival oligarchs).
"And there came out of the smoke locusts upon the earth: and unto them was given power, as the scorpions of the earth have power. And it was commanded them that they should not hurt the grass of the earth, neither any green thing, neither any tree; but only those men which have not the seal of God in their foreheads. And to them it was given that they should not kill them, but that they should be tormented five months: and their torment was as the torment of a scorpion, when he striketh a man. And in those days shall men seek death, and shall not find it; and shall desire to die, and death shall flee from them. And the shapes of the locusts were like unto horses prepared unto battle; and on their heads were as it were crowns like gold, and their faces were as the faces of men. And they had hair as the hair of women, and their teeth were as the teeth of lions. And they had breastplates, as it were breastplates of iron; and the sound of their wings was as the sound of chariots of many horses running to battle. And they had tails like unto scorpions, and there were stings in their tails: and their power was to hurt men five months. And they had a king over them, which is the angel of the bottomless pit, whose name in the Hebrew tongue is Abaddon, but in the Greek tongue hath his name Apollyon."
First police have to be competent to employ drones. In the USA, at least, that's a questionable assumption. Hell, in half of the country you still can't get a wifi signal or reliable internet.
What the _Pudding's PRBS-machinery _permits us__ to see from Russia is 'Stalinism nostalgia'.
....and that after he's completely destroyed every kind of semblance of research and information about those times, so that 'the people' (the Russians) have no trace of clue what was going on. They've only heard 'those were good times' & 'Russia stronk'.
The older generation remembers things like steady jobs, low crime, relative equality (a very important psychological concept), sense of opportunity and national pride. Mobile phones, jeans and Coca Cola don't make up for loss of these.
Basically your average Russian and Ukrainian generally hasn't benefited much by fall of USSR. For most shit got worst or just stayed the same. Hence the old ones who remember the Soviet era and who have not benefited much from new systems pine for Soviet system.
Like any political system democracy in itself is meaningless if it doesn't deliver benefits. Which is why Russians were happy Putin emerged as "stronk leader" in early 2000s after failure of democracy in 1990s. And failure of democracy is pushing Americans into Trumps' arms.
I remember my grandfather standing in queues for two hours to buy tickets for a bus to get to the village. Now there are enough mini-buses everywhere because it's free market that covers any demand.
Cars were rare. Now most families have cars.
Washing machines were semi-automatic. Now you put the staff in and forget about it till its done.
There were no fruits - not there is everything from all over the world.
We are free to travel around the world, we got the Internet and the whole world's literature and movies.
Westetners dodn't jabe onternet in 1980s or before because it didn't exist outside of some research facilities
Also you have more buses than us in Australia. Here there are only 4 buses a day from my city to the capital (and no train since 1978). Bus is more expensive too than driving a private car.
Anyhow yes some things were better. For some life improved immensely. But for many it did not. There was a reason Ukrainians were escaping their country before 2013 and why population declined from 52 million in 1991 to 45 million in 2013.
Essentially both Russia and Ukraine are failures in terms of reforming their countries and societies into 21st century western ones. These are no Czechia or Poland. Even Albania has done better at modernising and westernising than Ukraine or Russia despite starting from a much poorer base.
The population decline was natural, thanks to contraceptives, sex education and career opportunities for women. You see the same throughout Europe. People left the country because Ukraine still had low salaries when compared to EU or US.
Regarding modernization - I hear a lot that banking and medicine in EU is terrible when compared to Ukraine. They still use DSL modems while we have fiber optics everywhere. Another commenter here wrote that the US does not enjoy full mobile coverage. Thus, it depends on what you look at.
Dear Tom, thank you for reporting! When you say who knows besides GenShtab-U, a funny thought came to me, Google knows. Try to "drive" Rylsk-Krupets, Rylsk-Sudhza, Rylsk-Lgov, Sudzha-Verkhniy Postoyaly Dvor. Funny traffic jams, they even change during the day.
Looks like your opinion changed from yesterday, but I think it happened with almost everyone in western Osint/expert society. A few questions:
1. You said about 6 Iskanders attack, but did you get a confirmation that it was a UAV factory from your own sources or I missed something from open ones? There is also info about KN-23 remnants around area, but you didn't mention them.
2. Regarding UAV problem, looks like special FPV became primary vector for big Ukrainian volunteers like Sternenko. He also claimed that Genstab - UA banned them from posting interceptions in the air. I've also noticed that number of filmed strikes in +80 km in rear reduced, but I don't know is it a result of drones more frequent shorting down, so they don't find target or they are shotted down during/after strike, so they can't film an impact?
3. Famous Ukrainian blogger Flash claimed that Delta has integrated a system, that allows users to access the UAV observation system, so they can receive information from UAV pelengators and radars on map. Any ideas?
4. In your opinion, can Kursk advance endanger Russians in Kharkiv oblast? Seen some material that current captured positions allow to seriously interrupt supply on one of logistical lines? Can further advancement force Russians to retreat from Vovchsnsk and Hlyboke, potentially freeing a few UA brigades?
5. There is evidence of 80 brigade actions in Kursk, which commander was moved due to "disagreement with higher command about suicidal operation". Looks like it is that operation
5. Lastly, how do you see the attack helicopter role in the near future, considering first confirmed successful attack by relatively cheap FPV? There are 3 filmed attempts and number will definitely grow, so how could it change the helicopter tactics?
As far as there were no footages of civilian buildings bring hit, i think in Brovary something industrial was hit. Hope, just damaged, but still not a clear miss.
Fingers crossed, not many people were killed/injured. As of facilities itself, it is not a very big problem to relaunch UAV production in different place.
Something really happends in air: more and more evidences of UAVs hunting ru recon UAVs. Hope for good.
I can also say theres supposedly lot of drone on drone interceptions happening but Kyiv is not allowing footage to leak, though maybe we just read the same source stating so. Those awful drone assisted hits of last months seem to have subdued, although Russians are also known to hold back footage.
The practice of striking fixed wings with FPVs is there for months. Just it is (was) not working in all sectors of the front. The number is significant, just compare the number of UAVs (operational level) hit daily with numbers of Shaheds reported by PSU.
For helicopters, this is not yet the final efficiency, more like targets of opportunity. High speed FPVs are being tested, those may be much better.
It seems that Kursk operation purpose and design, is not yet revealed really. It looks strange so far in many aspects, though this may be connected with tactical successes and failures unlike the plan. It can become anything from short and sweet demonstration, to a kind of black hole in which more and more forces and units would be involved and disappear.
For fixed wings vs FPVs you can listen to Magyar one and only big interview, I have parts of it transcribed in English in my substack posts.
Tom, I'm glad that you call it that. I'm from the US and that war has been glorified and justified to no end here. It was a stupid war, fought solely to benefit the wealthy (as most wars are). I once went to the Gettysburg battle site. It did nothing but depress me. "1000 soldiers died here.", "...another 500 died here.", etc. and yet we still keep fighting stupid wars.
We readers appreciate your info. Thanks for your devotion to your craft. I hope you understand when I say "May it some day become obsolete!"
A comment on visiting Gettysburg from a Non Us person. Apart from this about how many died here and here was the heroically effort of making all participants equally great and brave. At least the enlisted, generals could still be percieved to do something stupid. But if a regiment had been percieved to performance poorly, never research always showed it to be brave. Further there was a sterile neutrality in the presentation. You should not call the Confedrate anything bad. The whole thing was a show where the most important thing was not to antagonuze anybody. Because it was likely you had somebody at the field who had some ancestor figthing there. So nobody should be insulted. And the statue of Lee (who did loose after all) was the best statue of a general at horse in the world. Oh well. Gettysburg was indeed a strange place .
You'll notice the same about Heike Monogatari - the ancient Japanese chronicle of their Emperor destroying the country's most powerful clan. Everybody was a hero, died a brave death, they killed 100K+ combatants, their families, the young to-be emperor, lost a sacred relic and installed Shogun who took all the power from the Emperors. And then they wrote a ballad which glorified the events.
Read a funny note at one of the TG channels yesterday that Gerasimov was warned about upcoming UA onslaught towards Kursk region but reacted in opposite manner by diminishing number of troops there. If it was really so, it is just another link in the chain of this Queer War. Khersongate, Russian retreat in Kharkov region in 2022, sensless UA assault thru minefield in summer 2023 and etc. could be a perfect match.
The whole thing is extremely stupid and evil. I used to work for a few Russian companies, one of them was the best employer I ever dealt with. We programed great things together. Now that old world is dead, and I reject any offers from Russian businesses, even if they propose interesting projects.
My most pleasant and friendly business trips were to Kiev back in pre-2014 times. People in Kiev spoke often more literate Russian than people in Moscow.))) But now any business with Ukraine is impossible/prohibited. Old world is indeed gone. My guess, at least couple of decades should pass to make it out.
That is not going to heal up. Consider Finland - it has closed the border. Same for the Baltic states. And the next generation of Ukrainians or Georgians will not speak Russian.
а потом бац и украинцы - нацистами, укропами, хохлами и т.д. стали в 2014 году, давайте их убивать. Зайдем отожмем Крым, начнем грабить Донбасс, там людей убивать, насиловать, мародерить. Как же это все по-российски. Тупо мрази.
Whether or not it is true such rumours were bound to come. When somebody surprises someother you will very often have such accusations flying. They may of course be true, although I fall to see what Gerasimov would gain from it. But personally I will take them with quite a few grains of salt. At least now.
You can complain for a long time and for good reason about the fantastic three, but, in my opinion, the greater fault lies with the ENTIRE Ukrainian government, which since 2014 has done ABSOLUTELY nothing for its own defense capability. Prevention of any threats is one of the main functions of any government. The Ukrainian oligarchy did not want to break financial relations with Russia, because it was in symbiosis with the financial part of Kremlin circles. No one wanted to bear the loss of breaking these chains. Russian banks and Russian businesses disguised themselves and worked in Ukraine until 2022. And what was the Ukrainian oligarchy doing at that time? And she embezzled loans from the IMF, made corruption schemes profiting from the grief of Ukrainians, raised taxes year after year and tried to capitulate. Only at the very end, when it became clear that the invasions inevitably began to do something. As a Ukrainian, I have many complaints against the Ukrainian government of looters. The Ukrainian government of marauders likes to shift the arrows from itself to the USA, NATO, Ukrainians, aliens or to the incorrect location of the stars.
You first search and find out how many different taxes are in Ukraine, and then multiply 9 years (2014-2022) by this 1.5% additional tax. In fact, Ukraine did not even need all these loans from the IMF, because Ukraine has enough internal resources. It's just that the marauding elite withdraw billions from the Ukrainian economy year after year.
I know certain people like to pretend this is a war between good and evil, but the reality is that there are lines of communication between the US and Russia. That's what prevents anyone from accidentally stepping over the boundaries and this blowing up into a nuclear war between the USA and Russia.
Anyone who thinks Americans and Russians DON'T talk regularly about boundaries in the Ukraine proxy war is a fool.
Anyone who thinks Russia couldn't retaliate in meaningful ways if the USA overstepped the boundaries is a fool. The patchwork of "moderate rebels" in Syria and northern Iraq are only there because the USA has total air supremacy. If Russia gave away proper air defenses, those Kurdish death squads and bases of a few hundred American servicemen would be washed away in a week.
The USA is a glass house. About 10-20% of the population are savages who would kill you for the iPhone in your pocket. Imagine if the gangs of ferals who burn American cities every summer had access to kornets and RPGs. What keeps the "fiery but mostly peaceful" riots from turning into full-scale race wars is our foreign adversaries restraining themselves from sending military weapons into US territory. If Russia stopped restraining themselves that would change real quick.
"We're already in August. Where are the riots? 2023? 2022?"
I don't know. I left the good old USA in Spring 2022, came back once to get my dog, and don't plan to return. Aside from memes about stores having to lock up everything besides the sun screen, the only American news I've paid attention to since then is foreign policy and de-dollarization, as that affects whether or not my next VA check will be worth anything.
"Please, provide more details on the 10-20% of the savages that are killing people for iPhones. What is the nature of all these "ferals"?"
Democrats' open borders policy allowing in millions of people from failed states. The problem is further compounded by the opiate addiction crisis.
"Tell me how all the foreigh adversaries could possibly be shipping in Kornets and RPGs if it were not for their good nature?"
Probably three reasons.
-Russia and China hope to have good relations with the USA in the future, so enabling attacks on American soil, even indirectly, is a Rubicon that can't be crossed lightly.
-The USA is already a crime-ridden hellhole, so adding a few dozen or hundred extra deaths doesn't actually accomplish anything.
-There are much easier and safer targets overseas. Vaporizing the SDF has the same angering and weakening effect on America's globalist oligarchs, but the average American citizen could not care less, and certainly wouldn't accept conscription to defend some Kurds.
Seriously about immigration at the U.S. southern border. It's a very complex phenomenon. Furthermore, both political parties are lying through their collective arses when they make "important pronouncements" about it. Furthermore, the Republicans are particularly worse than the Democrats lately. E.g., The Democrats and Republicans in Congress (the House of Representatives) recently "finallly" agreed on a stop-gap bill regarding such surge in immigration, but Czar Putin . . . ah . . . er . . . ahem! . . . I mean . . . Donald Trump told the Dems (specifically his lapdog, Mike Johnson) not to send the bill to the Senate that otherwise would have voted to pass it. It seems that Donald needed something to run against the presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee (Biden at the time). So much for "The Donald" putting his country first instead of himself.
Our political system currently is more than normally dysfunctional and in disarray. It really doesn't serve anybody left or right, but particuarly in the middle.
Do you have a link to this policy? I mean "Democrats' open borders policy allowing in millions of people from failed states".
Have you heard about - President Biden issued a proclamation under Immigration and Nationality Act sections 212(f) and 215(a) suspending entry of noncitizens who cross the Southern border into the United States unlawfully
Most, if not all of the violence in the so called "BLM riots" can be traced to right wing antagonistic groups. See the link below from the US Justice Department about a member of one such group who traveled several hundred miles to make trouble in Minneapolis, all the while trying to blame it on BLM.
BLM was a movement brought about to bring awareness of the un-equal treatment of blacks at the hands of police in the US. Fox News and other right wing affiliated propaganda sites vilified BLM and now we have trolls like Mr Ian here spreading more BS.
Setting-aside the beautiful irony of your cashing VA checks from a nation you actively denigrate — you really should take a break from whatever extremist media you’ve been consuming.
I think Russia should first learn what its internationally recognized boundaries are before trying to start a civil war in the US. The last time they tried starting a civil war in Ukraine it didnt work so they sent in their own soldiers.
This comment is very low on realism. Yes, I am sure Russia and Us talks. So? Russia has one and only one response that will give US trouble and thats nukes. But the level of realism gets worse towards the end. 10-20 percent of the people are willing to kill for an iPhone? When according to Pews research 97 percent of Americans have a cell phone? Iphones are not that much better. Annullert burning of American cities? Missed it the last summers. And regarding bringing military weapons into American cities have you heard about NRA, the second Ammendment and so on? The weapons are there. Your comment is totally meaning less. Link to Pews: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/
«Moreover: even if he would be permitted to do so, the Pudding-allied oligarchy like Bezos, Musk, Thiel, Trump etc. would be certainly very happy if he does - because that would be playing straight into their hands (see ‘no money for Ukraine’, even though 90-95% of ‘money’ provided by the Trio Fantasticus is actually spent in the USA)» — at the expense of Trump, everything has been clear for a long time, he is 70% an idiot and a clown, and the other 30% is a Kremlin asset. His connections, the connections of his relatives, his business partners, his acquaintances with the Kremlin have long been proven. At the expense of Musk and the PayPal mafia, his motivation is also perfectly clear to me, because he has an old grudge against Biden, when he denied his companies a piece of the pie from the trillions of dollars allocated for green technologies. Well, Musk has a gigafactory in China, and these are crazy profits. Why should Musk spoil relations with the Chinese and lose. That he has some kind of genocide in some distant Ukraine. I don't know about Bezos and his connections with Putin's hydra. It will be necessary to rely on it. I admit that there are some fraternal relations with the financial part of the Kremlin elites, brothers from Mishpukha. Probably in the same way that the Jew Kushner has a connection with Putin's friend, the Jew Yuri Milner.
What? You are no less an idiot Trump started withdrawing troops from Syria and from all US bastions around the world. How did idiot Trump explain that he betrayed Kurdish allies? He wrote on Twitter that the Kurds did not help the US in World War II🤡
What about the Carter Page, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, Rudy Giuliani, Jared Kushner scandals? Trump went bankrupt six times and only Kremlin money allowed him to rise from the bottom.
"Purchases of Facebook and Twitter were public knowledge and turned out to be lucrative . Usmanov is estimated to have made more than $1bn on his original $200m stake. He sold the last of his Facebook holdings in September 2013. "
Please read the entire article. There's just a huge longread there. Aren't you embarrassed by the fact that Russian criminal capital has come in and started controlling the largest social networks in the United States? And the connections of Thiel, Usmanov, Kushner, Milner that lead from Trump to Putin don’t bother you either? Don’t many other scandals related to Trump also bother you?
That was no 'Wagner force'. 12-14 Russians caught in the whirlwind of the USA destroying 'pro-Assad-regime forces' - because the Pentagon and the White House 'can't find' any IRGC troops in Syria (just like they 'can't find the PKK' in the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF conglomerate....)
I know about this all. But, it doesn't mean what you think it does.
Yes, Prigozhin was 'involved' in so far that he was curious for the Liwa al-Bakr and the 4th Armoured to secure the field. After all, that was what Wanger was supposed to get paid. But, there were only some 12-14 Russians involved, and they were all killed. The rest is their mythology.
Plus over 100 Syrians and IRGC officers from three different battalions of the Liwa al-Bakr.
Which is why, again, it was NO battle between the USA and Wagner: the Wagners were there to advise one of newly-established battalions of the Liwa al-Bakr (if you know what is that unit, at all....). They've got caught and killed because the Americans shoot at everything that was moving in the given area.
I don't understand the mockery/sarcasm directed at the US generally in your articles . Quite Clearly it is no ones interest except maybe the Ukrainians who are already at War with them - to push the Russians over the edge into unknown territory where major escalations could be triggered . No-one in the West wants this to escalate at all . It needs to remain at the current level of intensity at best where only Ukrainians and Russians are dying - and everyone else in the First World can get on with planning their Summer Holidays - thats just the way the world works .
Yeah maybe not the best Analogy - If both Sides in WW2 were Nuclear Armed at the outset I'm pretty sure the strategic moves would have been completely different .
Go read how the leaders of the day used to think about chemical weapons and aerial attacks. Big part of Chamberlain's cowardice was absolute certainty that any war would lead to mutual annihilation.
Guess what? Hitler never used his WMDs. America did when it no longer even needed to, Japan being blockaded and its cities burned down quite efficiently with conventional weapons.
Nukes are a bluff - leaders are too cowardly to risk their own skins. NATO and the USA are already at war with russia. Deal.
We most definitely are in a position to know right now that the use of Nuclear weapons is not something anyone wants to trigger - That's not hypothetical like Chamberlains ideas of what WW2 would look like . But very very real .
America's use of Nukes most definitely had a purpose at the time . There are definite arguments about the reasons including letting the Russians know who the Boss was and getting Japan to capitulate as quickly as they could before Russia started invading the Northern Japanese Islands as they were looking to do . As to whether Nukes are a Bluff or not - absolutely Nukes are a Bluff - MAD is one giant mutually supported bluff by both sides - until someone makes a mistake .
Your form of super-aggressive foreign policy projection ignoring known risks and throwing caution to the wind in supporting any form of attack on Russia - is most likely why you are just a substack author and not anyone anywhere near actual levels of power .
The position that you have promulgated vis-a-vis Hiroshima & Nagasaki is known to historians as the revisionist position. This is strictly descriptive. Resort to the word, revisionist, is not to be understood pejoratively.
The employment of nuclear weapons against Japan in WW2 was part of much larger considerations involving significantly American planners' perceptions regarding the huge casualties that would be incurred in the continuation of the war almost certainly into 1946. As an example, by the Spring of 1946, the Japanese people were on the brink of widespread starvation. That starvation was alleviated by the American farmer during the subsequent peace of September 1945. Considering this, we are looking at casualties (i.e., specifically deaths) that would dwarf the total deaths incurred in the conventional bombing and the two nuclear bombs of the Japanese mainland. Also considered was the continuing non-combat deaths in China due to Japanese occupation of parts of China (and Manchuria due to the war in China (from 1932 onwards). Chinese non-combat deaths approximated 15 million to date (late 1945), much of it due to starvation. These deaths undoubtedly would have continued (at the approximate rate of 3,000 per day) into 1946 and potentially beyond.
I am sure that most people possess a sincerely considered opinion regarding President Truman's decision to authorize the use of Little Boy (the uranium bomb) and Fatman (the putonium bomb) against Japan. I suggest, however, that one calibrate his or her opinion regarding the American employment of these devastating weapons against a detailed examination of the conditions in the Western Pacific leading to that awful decision.
There are two excellent books on this subject that treat the issues involved fairly, including the revisionist position, that these books criticize. These books, in my opinion, will not change anyone's opinion about Nagasaki & Hiroshima, but they will elucidate the complex issues involved in the decision to employ nuclear weapons against Japan.
(1) George Feifer, " Tennozan: The Battle of Okinawa and the Atomic Bomb," 1992
Chamberlines fear of gas was built on experiences. In the end nobody used gas because they feared retaliation. Nukes today are in a similar situation. But they Work for scaring of others.
He did, but after being left with no choice once the security guarantees with Poland were concluded. Of course then he sat back with France and let Poland fall. Some American conservatives today say that if Chamberlain had appeased Hitler again, WW2 might not have happened.
I am not living in Ukraine. I think it is in my interst that Ukraine wins this war. And i think we should support them in that by more equipment and more money. If you call that escalation I am in fabour because I think it is in my interest. And I am not the only one thinking that here. Your statement is low at least on that level. Many people are in favour of escalation definer that way.
Hello Tom, thanks for the analysis, some speculate that it could be a propaganda measure, others say that for a possible exchange of territory. . . in development
I'd suggest that Syrsky wants Gerasimov to move his units away from the Avdiivka direction. If that happens, he may be able to counterattack and, hopefully, encircle the Russian advances.
The "strategic pipelines' story while often repeated doesn't really add up - after Sudzha, those pipelines just go towards Ukraine, so it's not necessary for Ukraine to capture Sudza to control them.
On the other hand, there seems to be a railway passing through there, which is one of the two main lines connecting Moscow to Belgorod. So I imagine losing it will cause some pain for Russian logistics.
But ultimately, if they secure and fortify a small region it almost does not matter how big or strategic the region is, it only matters that they're able to hold it with minimum casualties. Cause temporary news PR aside, as long as Ukraine is holding any part of Russia it makes it politically impossible for Putin to offer a ceasefire without withdrawals. This strenghtens Ukraine's hand in peace negotiations.
Seems like a game of chicken: who has the guts to leave their border unprotected. If Rusia mans its entire border than there will be no reserves left for major attacks. This will scale up recruitment on both sides and the Rusian economy might take a dive.
Bold. Better than slogging it out having one's own territory annihilated. Why continue playing by Russian's rules?
Yes. Think outside the Box.
Hope they can do as much damage as possible to Russia in this instance. At this point, I don't think it's possible to ki- kuddle more Russian's faster than they can replace them. Ukraine keeps expecting to fight with one hand tied to their back while Russia gets to act like they have any right to complain when Ukraine does something.
To hell with the nuclear threats, I hope they gobble up half of Russia's territory
"govern in interest of the people, instead of the oligarchy" - those who oppose arm deliveries to Ukraine say the same exactly same words. So, any remarks about "interests of people" are completely pointless. Different people have different interests. There are quite a few citizens of EU and USA who are not politicians and would change democracy to totalitarianism happily. (Even if it would lead to their personal economic decline.)
So what? Me think you are missing the point of the post.
Sure. Problem: the people who want to switch over to totalitarianism are no the majority - otherwise the country would be a dictatorship since longer.
On the contrary, they're relatively few super-rich, who became as rich precisely because the politicians they're bribing are administering in their interest and thus they and the corporations they're running are paying next to no income tax.
With other words: nope, they're not 'the people' as defined in - for example - the Declaration of Independence.
BTW, a recommended read in this regards:
https://www.medimops.de/howard-zinn-a-people-s-history-of-the-united-states-taschenbuch-M00062397346.html
What we see in Ukraine, and probably in Russia, is that the older generation is generally nostalgic about Stalin and Soviet Union. That may be because they spent their best years in the totalitarian society, or because they don't feel that have much weight now.
See, they cannot influence the way the life runs now, but they vote in elections, and they are many.
Nostalgia Is not what it used to be!
Their influence is crucial because they are manipulated by TV and by populistic slogans.
In the theories of the formation of elites by Mosk, Pareto and Michels, it has long been said how the interaction between the elites and the people takes place. In my opinion, their theories are more true. Regardless of the right, left or other ideology, sooner or later all this turns into an oligarchy. Well, the people never decide anything. The electoral system in the modern world is pure profanation. To vote for such elites is to consent to one's own robbery.
Ukraine was ruled by an oligarchy - but yes, the people decided, and if the government turned against the people - the people revolted and overthrew it (not without the help of rival oligarchs).
Don't worry, the next wave of anarchism is going to kick the oligarchy right in the junk. They can't stop the drones :)
And then there come non-lethal police drones:
"And there came out of the smoke locusts upon the earth: and unto them was given power, as the scorpions of the earth have power. And it was commanded them that they should not hurt the grass of the earth, neither any green thing, neither any tree; but only those men which have not the seal of God in their foreheads. And to them it was given that they should not kill them, but that they should be tormented five months: and their torment was as the torment of a scorpion, when he striketh a man. And in those days shall men seek death, and shall not find it; and shall desire to die, and death shall flee from them. And the shapes of the locusts were like unto horses prepared unto battle; and on their heads were as it were crowns like gold, and their faces were as the faces of men. And they had hair as the hair of women, and their teeth were as the teeth of lions. And they had breastplates, as it were breastplates of iron; and the sound of their wings was as the sound of chariots of many horses running to battle. And they had tails like unto scorpions, and there were stings in their tails: and their power was to hurt men five months. And they had a king over them, which is the angel of the bottomless pit, whose name in the Hebrew tongue is Abaddon, but in the Greek tongue hath his name Apollyon."
First police have to be competent to employ drones. In the USA, at least, that's a questionable assumption. Hell, in half of the country you still can't get a wifi signal or reliable internet.
Salute you from Venezuela...is not a joke...
Sorry. Wrong.
What the _Pudding's PRBS-machinery _permits us__ to see from Russia is 'Stalinism nostalgia'.
....and that after he's completely destroyed every kind of semblance of research and information about those times, so that 'the people' (the Russians) have no trace of clue what was going on. They've only heard 'those were good times' & 'Russia stronk'.
I hear that in _Ukraine_.
The older generation remembers things like steady jobs, low crime, relative equality (a very important psychological concept), sense of opportunity and national pride. Mobile phones, jeans and Coca Cola don't make up for loss of these.
Basically your average Russian and Ukrainian generally hasn't benefited much by fall of USSR. For most shit got worst or just stayed the same. Hence the old ones who remember the Soviet era and who have not benefited much from new systems pine for Soviet system.
Like any political system democracy in itself is meaningless if it doesn't deliver benefits. Which is why Russians were happy Putin emerged as "stronk leader" in early 2000s after failure of democracy in 1990s. And failure of democracy is pushing Americans into Trumps' arms.
The average person in Ukraine benefited a lot.
I remember my grandfather standing in queues for two hours to buy tickets for a bus to get to the village. Now there are enough mini-buses everywhere because it's free market that covers any demand.
Cars were rare. Now most families have cars.
Washing machines were semi-automatic. Now you put the staff in and forget about it till its done.
There were no fruits - not there is everything from all over the world.
We are free to travel around the world, we got the Internet and the whole world's literature and movies.
Westetners dodn't jabe onternet in 1980s or before because it didn't exist outside of some research facilities
Also you have more buses than us in Australia. Here there are only 4 buses a day from my city to the capital (and no train since 1978). Bus is more expensive too than driving a private car.
Anyhow yes some things were better. For some life improved immensely. But for many it did not. There was a reason Ukrainians were escaping their country before 2013 and why population declined from 52 million in 1991 to 45 million in 2013.
Essentially both Russia and Ukraine are failures in terms of reforming their countries and societies into 21st century western ones. These are no Czechia or Poland. Even Albania has done better at modernising and westernising than Ukraine or Russia despite starting from a much poorer base.
The population decline was natural, thanks to contraceptives, sex education and career opportunities for women. You see the same throughout Europe. People left the country because Ukraine still had low salaries when compared to EU or US.
Regarding modernization - I hear a lot that banking and medicine in EU is terrible when compared to Ukraine. They still use DSL modems while we have fiber optics everywhere. Another commenter here wrote that the US does not enjoy full mobile coverage. Thus, it depends on what you look at.
If God turned his ear to pleas of the dogs it would be rain of bones every day.
Dear Tom, thank you for reporting! When you say who knows besides GenShtab-U, a funny thought came to me, Google knows. Try to "drive" Rylsk-Krupets, Rylsk-Sudhza, Rylsk-Lgov, Sudzha-Verkhniy Postoyaly Dvor. Funny traffic jams, they even change during the day.
Surprise effect is always the key
And kind of amazing to pull it off in perhaps the most intimately surveilled war in human history.
Looks like your opinion changed from yesterday, but I think it happened with almost everyone in western Osint/expert society. A few questions:
1. You said about 6 Iskanders attack, but did you get a confirmation that it was a UAV factory from your own sources or I missed something from open ones? There is also info about KN-23 remnants around area, but you didn't mention them.
2. Regarding UAV problem, looks like special FPV became primary vector for big Ukrainian volunteers like Sternenko. He also claimed that Genstab - UA banned them from posting interceptions in the air. I've also noticed that number of filmed strikes in +80 km in rear reduced, but I don't know is it a result of drones more frequent shorting down, so they don't find target or they are shotted down during/after strike, so they can't film an impact?
3. Famous Ukrainian blogger Flash claimed that Delta has integrated a system, that allows users to access the UAV observation system, so they can receive information from UAV pelengators and radars on map. Any ideas?
4. In your opinion, can Kursk advance endanger Russians in Kharkiv oblast? Seen some material that current captured positions allow to seriously interrupt supply on one of logistical lines? Can further advancement force Russians to retreat from Vovchsnsk and Hlyboke, potentially freeing a few UA brigades?
5. There is evidence of 80 brigade actions in Kursk, which commander was moved due to "disagreement with higher command about suicidal operation". Looks like it is that operation
5. Lastly, how do you see the attack helicopter role in the near future, considering first confirmed successful attack by relatively cheap FPV? There are 3 filmed attempts and number will definitely grow, so how could it change the helicopter tactics?
Thank for report
As far as there were no footages of civilian buildings bring hit, i think in Brovary something industrial was hit. Hope, just damaged, but still not a clear miss.
Fingers crossed, not many people were killed/injured. As of facilities itself, it is not a very big problem to relaunch UAV production in different place.
Something really happends in air: more and more evidences of UAVs hunting ru recon UAVs. Hope for good.
I can also say theres supposedly lot of drone on drone interceptions happening but Kyiv is not allowing footage to leak, though maybe we just read the same source stating so. Those awful drone assisted hits of last months seem to have subdued, although Russians are also known to hold back footage.
That's a lots of questions. I'll try to address them all in the update tomorrow.
Dear Arthur,
The practice of striking fixed wings with FPVs is there for months. Just it is (was) not working in all sectors of the front. The number is significant, just compare the number of UAVs (operational level) hit daily with numbers of Shaheds reported by PSU.
For helicopters, this is not yet the final efficiency, more like targets of opportunity. High speed FPVs are being tested, those may be much better.
It seems that Kursk operation purpose and design, is not yet revealed really. It looks strange so far in many aspects, though this may be connected with tactical successes and failures unlike the plan. It can become anything from short and sweet demonstration, to a kind of black hole in which more and more forces and units would be involved and disappear.
For fixed wings vs FPVs you can listen to Magyar one and only big interview, I have parts of it transcribed in English in my substack posts.
Thank. I actually know Ukranian, but I definitely should listen it
"US Secessionist War"
Tom, I'm glad that you call it that. I'm from the US and that war has been glorified and justified to no end here. It was a stupid war, fought solely to benefit the wealthy (as most wars are). I once went to the Gettysburg battle site. It did nothing but depress me. "1000 soldiers died here.", "...another 500 died here.", etc. and yet we still keep fighting stupid wars.
We readers appreciate your info. Thanks for your devotion to your craft. I hope you understand when I say "May it some day become obsolete!"
A comment on visiting Gettysburg from a Non Us person. Apart from this about how many died here and here was the heroically effort of making all participants equally great and brave. At least the enlisted, generals could still be percieved to do something stupid. But if a regiment had been percieved to performance poorly, never research always showed it to be brave. Further there was a sterile neutrality in the presentation. You should not call the Confedrate anything bad. The whole thing was a show where the most important thing was not to antagonuze anybody. Because it was likely you had somebody at the field who had some ancestor figthing there. So nobody should be insulted. And the statue of Lee (who did loose after all) was the best statue of a general at horse in the world. Oh well. Gettysburg was indeed a strange place .
Agree on the strangeness, but I’ll take sugar-coated historical revisionism over a perpetually-smoldering armed insurgency any day of the week.
Understand that. But that smoldering must be hmmm smoldered sooner or later.
You'll notice the same about Heike Monogatari - the ancient Japanese chronicle of their Emperor destroying the country's most powerful clan. Everybody was a hero, died a brave death, they killed 100K+ combatants, their families, the young to-be emperor, lost a sacred relic and installed Shogun who took all the power from the Emperors. And then they wrote a ballad which glorified the events.
BTW it was made into a really good TV series just before the ongoing war started https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vb30RgyZ-gw
Read a funny note at one of the TG channels yesterday that Gerasimov was warned about upcoming UA onslaught towards Kursk region but reacted in opposite manner by diminishing number of troops there. If it was really so, it is just another link in the chain of this Queer War. Khersongate, Russian retreat in Kharkov region in 2022, sensless UA assault thru minefield in summer 2023 and etc. could be a perfect match.
The whole thing is extremely stupid and evil. I used to work for a few Russian companies, one of them was the best employer I ever dealt with. We programed great things together. Now that old world is dead, and I reject any offers from Russian businesses, even if they propose interesting projects.
My most pleasant and friendly business trips were to Kiev back in pre-2014 times. People in Kiev spoke often more literate Russian than people in Moscow.))) But now any business with Ukraine is impossible/prohibited. Old world is indeed gone. My guess, at least couple of decades should pass to make it out.
That is not going to heal up. Consider Finland - it has closed the border. Same for the Baltic states. And the next generation of Ukrainians or Georgians will not speak Russian.
а потом бац и украинцы - нацистами, укропами, хохлами и т.д. стали в 2014 году, давайте их убивать. Зайдем отожмем Крым, начнем грабить Донбасс, там людей убивать, насиловать, мародерить. Как же это все по-российски. Тупо мрази.
Whether or not it is true such rumours were bound to come. When somebody surprises someother you will very often have such accusations flying. They may of course be true, although I fall to see what Gerasimov would gain from it. But personally I will take them with quite a few grains of salt. At least now.
You can complain for a long time and for good reason about the fantastic three, but, in my opinion, the greater fault lies with the ENTIRE Ukrainian government, which since 2014 has done ABSOLUTELY nothing for its own defense capability. Prevention of any threats is one of the main functions of any government. The Ukrainian oligarchy did not want to break financial relations with Russia, because it was in symbiosis with the financial part of Kremlin circles. No one wanted to bear the loss of breaking these chains. Russian banks and Russian businesses disguised themselves and worked in Ukraine until 2022. And what was the Ukrainian oligarchy doing at that time? And she embezzled loans from the IMF, made corruption schemes profiting from the grief of Ukrainians, raised taxes year after year and tried to capitulate. Only at the very end, when it became clear that the invasions inevitably began to do something. As a Ukrainian, I have many complaints against the Ukrainian government of looters. The Ukrainian government of marauders likes to shift the arrows from itself to the USA, NATO, Ukrainians, aliens or to the incorrect location of the stars.
I don't remember that taxes were raised, except for the new 1.5% "war tax".
he means utility rates
You first search and find out how many different taxes are in Ukraine, and then multiply 9 years (2014-2022) by this 1.5% additional tax. In fact, Ukraine did not even need all these loans from the IMF, because Ukraine has enough internal resources. It's just that the marauding elite withdraw billions from the Ukrainian economy year after year.
Destroying submarines and capturing hundreds of prisoners at a time - sometimes VSU is a real stupor mundi. Glory to heroes!
I know certain people like to pretend this is a war between good and evil, but the reality is that there are lines of communication between the US and Russia. That's what prevents anyone from accidentally stepping over the boundaries and this blowing up into a nuclear war between the USA and Russia.
Anyone who thinks Americans and Russians DON'T talk regularly about boundaries in the Ukraine proxy war is a fool.
Anyone who thinks Russia couldn't retaliate in meaningful ways if the USA overstepped the boundaries is a fool. The patchwork of "moderate rebels" in Syria and northern Iraq are only there because the USA has total air supremacy. If Russia gave away proper air defenses, those Kurdish death squads and bases of a few hundred American servicemen would be washed away in a week.
The USA is a glass house. About 10-20% of the population are savages who would kill you for the iPhone in your pocket. Imagine if the gangs of ferals who burn American cities every summer had access to kornets and RPGs. What keeps the "fiery but mostly peaceful" riots from turning into full-scale race wars is our foreign adversaries restraining themselves from sending military weapons into US territory. If Russia stopped restraining themselves that would change real quick.
Then the Russians are thieves) https://meduza.io/news/2024/08/08/v-ekaterinburge-politsiya-zaderzhala-migrantov-na-ulichnom-rynke-uchastvovavshie-v-reyde-druzhinniki-skazali-pokupatelyam-chto-teper-mozhno-brat-frukty-besplatno
But they are thieves? Stealing everything not nailed down?
Not really. In that case a policeman arrested a migrant seller and told the people that they are free to take his goods for free. Some did.
It's so strange. I have no memory of the annual summer burning of American cities.
Try to stay focused on reality.
Then you have poor memory. BLM riots in 2020 alone caused more destruction than all race riots in the 1960s combined. https://thepostmillennial.com/blm-riot-damages-worst-in-history-totalling-over-2-billion
We're already in August. Where are the riots? 2023? 2022?
Please, provide more details on the 10-20% of the savages that are killing people for iPhones. What is the nature of all these "ferals"?
Tell me how all the foreigh adversaries could possibly be shipping in Kornets and RPGs if it were not for their good nature?
"We're already in August. Where are the riots? 2023? 2022?"
I don't know. I left the good old USA in Spring 2022, came back once to get my dog, and don't plan to return. Aside from memes about stores having to lock up everything besides the sun screen, the only American news I've paid attention to since then is foreign policy and de-dollarization, as that affects whether or not my next VA check will be worth anything.
"Please, provide more details on the 10-20% of the savages that are killing people for iPhones. What is the nature of all these "ferals"?"
Democrats' open borders policy allowing in millions of people from failed states. The problem is further compounded by the opiate addiction crisis.
"Tell me how all the foreigh adversaries could possibly be shipping in Kornets and RPGs if it were not for their good nature?"
Probably three reasons.
-Russia and China hope to have good relations with the USA in the future, so enabling attacks on American soil, even indirectly, is a Rubicon that can't be crossed lightly.
-The USA is already a crime-ridden hellhole, so adding a few dozen or hundred extra deaths doesn't actually accomplish anything.
-There are much easier and safer targets overseas. Vaporizing the SDF has the same angering and weakening effect on America's globalist oligarchs, but the average American citizen could not care less, and certainly wouldn't accept conscription to defend some Kurds.
Ok, so hyperbole without basis in fact. Thank you. We now have a much better picture of you as a source of information.
Right, Russian and American DOD communicating with each other is "hyperbole." You are beyond parody.
In the United States we have an expression: "Opinions are like assholes. Everybody has one."
Caveat emptor: I have opinions. They are no better and probably at times worse that the next guy's asshole. **ROFLMAO**
Seriously about immigration at the U.S. southern border. It's a very complex phenomenon. Furthermore, both political parties are lying through their collective arses when they make "important pronouncements" about it. Furthermore, the Republicans are particularly worse than the Democrats lately. E.g., The Democrats and Republicans in Congress (the House of Representatives) recently "finallly" agreed on a stop-gap bill regarding such surge in immigration, but Czar Putin . . . ah . . . er . . . ahem! . . . I mean . . . Donald Trump told the Dems (specifically his lapdog, Mike Johnson) not to send the bill to the Senate that otherwise would have voted to pass it. It seems that Donald needed something to run against the presumptive Democratic Presidential nominee (Biden at the time). So much for "The Donald" putting his country first instead of himself.
Our political system currently is more than normally dysfunctional and in disarray. It really doesn't serve anybody left or right, but particuarly in the middle.
Do you have a link to this policy? I mean "Democrats' open borders policy allowing in millions of people from failed states".
Have you heard about - President Biden issued a proclamation under Immigration and Nationality Act sections 212(f) and 215(a) suspending entry of noncitizens who cross the Southern border into the United States unlawfully
Most, if not all of the violence in the so called "BLM riots" can be traced to right wing antagonistic groups. See the link below from the US Justice Department about a member of one such group who traveled several hundred miles to make trouble in Minneapolis, all the while trying to blame it on BLM.
BLM was a movement brought about to bring awareness of the un-equal treatment of blacks at the hands of police in the US. Fox News and other right wing affiliated propaganda sites vilified BLM and now we have trolls like Mr Ian here spreading more BS.
https://www.justice.gov/usao-mn/pr/self-described-member-boogaloo-bois-pleads-guilty-riot?fbclid=IwY2xjawEjGPJleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHcfHSKEZMBcAFhW-UQsqFHoiULomJtnPNwZ4tZmqWknz_XCoGTBuOSmBxQ_aem_nGAM9yboarHUcNBNFmakig
Why would foreigners need to send military weapons when you can buy everything off the shelf in the US.
Here is an anti-tank weapon
https://www.rockislandauction.com/detail/61/1570/lahti-20mm-anti-tank-gun-class-iii
I guess you have never heard of the NFA.
Actually, they have. They just don't do it openly. But world war 3 is in full swing already.
https://open.substack.com/pub/jimstewartson/p/psychological-warfare-is-not-politics
Can’t imagine how bad the world would be without all that Russian restraint … lol
Biden declared war on me, Russians have not.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peF-ae2AINU&t=1s
What's so funny about racists like you is that we all had the same great grandmother 200,000 years ago.
Setting-aside the beautiful irony of your cashing VA checks from a nation you actively denigrate — you really should take a break from whatever extremist media you’ve been consuming.
This.
I think Russia should first learn what its internationally recognized boundaries are before trying to start a civil war in the US. The last time they tried starting a civil war in Ukraine it didnt work so they sent in their own soldiers.
This comment is very low on realism. Yes, I am sure Russia and Us talks. So? Russia has one and only one response that will give US trouble and thats nukes. But the level of realism gets worse towards the end. 10-20 percent of the people are willing to kill for an iPhone? When according to Pews research 97 percent of Americans have a cell phone? Iphones are not that much better. Annullert burning of American cities? Missed it the last summers. And regarding bringing military weapons into American cities have you heard about NRA, the second Ammendment and so on? The weapons are there. Your comment is totally meaning less. Link to Pews: https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/fact-sheet/mobile/
Found the MAGAT
«Moreover: even if he would be permitted to do so, the Pudding-allied oligarchy like Bezos, Musk, Thiel, Trump etc. would be certainly very happy if he does - because that would be playing straight into their hands (see ‘no money for Ukraine’, even though 90-95% of ‘money’ provided by the Trio Fantasticus is actually spent in the USA)» — at the expense of Trump, everything has been clear for a long time, he is 70% an idiot and a clown, and the other 30% is a Kremlin asset. His connections, the connections of his relatives, his business partners, his acquaintances with the Kremlin have long been proven. At the expense of Musk and the PayPal mafia, his motivation is also perfectly clear to me, because he has an old grudge against Biden, when he denied his companies a piece of the pie from the trillions of dollars allocated for green technologies. Well, Musk has a gigafactory in China, and these are crazy profits. Why should Musk spoil relations with the Chinese and lose. That he has some kind of genocide in some distant Ukraine. I don't know about Bezos and his connections with Putin's hydra. It will be necessary to rely on it. I admit that there are some fraternal relations with the financial part of the Kremlin elites, brothers from Mishpukha. Probably in the same way that the Jew Kushner has a connection with Putin's friend, the Jew Yuri Milner.
Still, it was under Trump that the US army destroyed Wagner forces in Syria (not without the help from Shoigu, though).
What? You are no less an idiot Trump started withdrawing troops from Syria and from all US bastions around the world. How did idiot Trump explain that he betrayed Kurdish allies? He wrote on Twitter that the Kurds did not help the US in World War II🤡
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham#Unofficial_Russian_sources_version
What about the Carter Page, Paul Manafort, Michael Flynn, Rudy Giuliani, Jared Kushner scandals? Trump went bankrupt six times and only Kremlin money allowed him to rise from the bottom.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/paradise-papers-russia-funded-facebook-and-twitter-investments-through-kushner-associate/story-t2kFNRoxjEtAV8TGuqFmiO_amp.html
"Purchases of Facebook and Twitter were public knowledge and turned out to be lucrative . Usmanov is estimated to have made more than $1bn on his original $200m stake. He sold the last of his Facebook holdings in September 2013. "
People made money: 400% in 2 years. What's wrong?
Please read the entire article. There's just a huge longread there. Aren't you embarrassed by the fact that Russian criminal capital has come in and started controlling the largest social networks in the United States? And the connections of Thiel, Usmanov, Kushner, Milner that lead from Trump to Putin don’t bother you either? Don’t many other scandals related to Trump also bother you?
That was no 'Wagner force'. 12-14 Russians caught in the whirlwind of the USA destroying 'pro-Assad-regime forces' - because the Pentagon and the White House 'can't find' any IRGC troops in Syria (just like they 'can't find the PKK' in the PKK/PYD/YPG/SDF conglomerate....)
Details about the involved units here:
https://warisboring.com/the-u-s-military-bushwacked-iranian-troops-in-syria/
More is to follow here:
https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/wagner-group-volume-1-private-military-company-establishment-profile-and-operations-2013-2013.php
It was Wagner. Here is an interview of Prigozhin https://meduza.io/news/2023/06/13/prigozhin-zayavil-chto-minoborony-rf-dvazhdy-pytalos-unichtozhit-chvk-vagnera
And here are reports of fighters involved:
https://t.me/grey_zone/23204
https://t.me/grey_zone/23206
https://t.me/grey_zone/23267
Denys,
I know about this all. But, it doesn't mean what you think it does.
Yes, Prigozhin was 'involved' in so far that he was curious for the Liwa al-Bakr and the 4th Armoured to secure the field. After all, that was what Wanger was supposed to get paid. But, there were only some 12-14 Russians involved, and they were all killed. The rest is their mythology.
CIT confirms deaths of 4 Wagner fighters https://www.facebook.com/CITeam.org/posts/924858967667081
Yes, as said: 12-14 were killed in total.
Plus over 100 Syrians and IRGC officers from three different battalions of the Liwa al-Bakr.
Which is why, again, it was NO battle between the USA and Wagner: the Wagners were there to advise one of newly-established battalions of the Liwa al-Bakr (if you know what is that unit, at all....). They've got caught and killed because the Americans shoot at everything that was moving in the given area.
But, But, Putin is calling this a "large scale provocation!"
He calls the 2+ years war with all his forces involved and much hardware destroyed a "special military operation".
Well, he saw it already as a provocation that Ukrainians didn't fold after a week.
I liked this already, now Putin is making me Even more happy!
I don't understand the mockery/sarcasm directed at the US generally in your articles . Quite Clearly it is no ones interest except maybe the Ukrainians who are already at War with them - to push the Russians over the edge into unknown territory where major escalations could be triggered . No-one in the West wants this to escalate at all . It needs to remain at the current level of intensity at best where only Ukrainians and Russians are dying - and everyone else in the First World can get on with planning their Summer Holidays - thats just the way the world works .
And then comes 1939 out of nowhere
Yeah maybe not the best Analogy - If both Sides in WW2 were Nuclear Armed at the outset I'm pretty sure the strategic moves would have been completely different .
Go read how the leaders of the day used to think about chemical weapons and aerial attacks. Big part of Chamberlain's cowardice was absolute certainty that any war would lead to mutual annihilation.
Guess what? Hitler never used his WMDs. America did when it no longer even needed to, Japan being blockaded and its cities burned down quite efficiently with conventional weapons.
Nukes are a bluff - leaders are too cowardly to risk their own skins. NATO and the USA are already at war with russia. Deal.
We most definitely are in a position to know right now that the use of Nuclear weapons is not something anyone wants to trigger - That's not hypothetical like Chamberlains ideas of what WW2 would look like . But very very real .
America's use of Nukes most definitely had a purpose at the time . There are definite arguments about the reasons including letting the Russians know who the Boss was and getting Japan to capitulate as quickly as they could before Russia started invading the Northern Japanese Islands as they were looking to do . As to whether Nukes are a Bluff or not - absolutely Nukes are a Bluff - MAD is one giant mutually supported bluff by both sides - until someone makes a mistake .
Your form of super-aggressive foreign policy projection ignoring known risks and throwing caution to the wind in supporting any form of attack on Russia - is most likely why you are just a substack author and not anyone anywhere near actual levels of power .
Ah, yes, the usual boring arguments and weak attempts at personal attacks. You must be an American :)
America - land of cowards, built by slaves, perpetually ignorant of science and history. Putin loves this country.
Are you still living in the US or have you vacated the Land of Cowards and moved abroad ?
The position that you have promulgated vis-a-vis Hiroshima & Nagasaki is known to historians as the revisionist position. This is strictly descriptive. Resort to the word, revisionist, is not to be understood pejoratively.
The employment of nuclear weapons against Japan in WW2 was part of much larger considerations involving significantly American planners' perceptions regarding the huge casualties that would be incurred in the continuation of the war almost certainly into 1946. As an example, by the Spring of 1946, the Japanese people were on the brink of widespread starvation. That starvation was alleviated by the American farmer during the subsequent peace of September 1945. Considering this, we are looking at casualties (i.e., specifically deaths) that would dwarf the total deaths incurred in the conventional bombing and the two nuclear bombs of the Japanese mainland. Also considered was the continuing non-combat deaths in China due to Japanese occupation of parts of China (and Manchuria due to the war in China (from 1932 onwards). Chinese non-combat deaths approximated 15 million to date (late 1945), much of it due to starvation. These deaths undoubtedly would have continued (at the approximate rate of 3,000 per day) into 1946 and potentially beyond.
I am sure that most people possess a sincerely considered opinion regarding President Truman's decision to authorize the use of Little Boy (the uranium bomb) and Fatman (the putonium bomb) against Japan. I suggest, however, that one calibrate his or her opinion regarding the American employment of these devastating weapons against a detailed examination of the conditions in the Western Pacific leading to that awful decision.
There are two excellent books on this subject that treat the issues involved fairly, including the revisionist position, that these books criticize. These books, in my opinion, will not change anyone's opinion about Nagasaki & Hiroshima, but they will elucidate the complex issues involved in the decision to employ nuclear weapons against Japan.
(1) George Feifer, " Tennozan: The Battle of Okinawa and the Atomic Bomb," 1992
https://www.amazon.com/Tennozan-Battle-Okinawa-Atomic-Bomb/dp/0395599245/ref=sr_1_1?crid=I4ZY4GW4L2NG&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.kEEssMtfl4t9fUPlOeMLGQbK0MCvdDeUkXz3bK26UGo.t6Epe8wvLmgLmQr9KglVFWpX725wpsYOAQkxymzM2wI&dib_tag=se&keywords=tennozan+the+battle+of+okinawa+and+the+atomic+bomb&qid=1723144531&sprefix=tennozan%2Caps%2C156&sr=8-1
(2) Richard B. Frank, "Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire," 2001
https://www.amazon.com/Downfall-End-Imperial-Japanese-Empire/dp/0141001461/ref=sr_1_1?crid=DI19SE5MLLTH&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.Z8Eu6RTEoseNW2szCyrV15Vx9CPdkJD1C2G-S814lxCEN5ZpddccmbhANDjVXFgQPQzagcRYCzx2aDuDqAmbS-WBRa3RAkMq24lak9TfsHBekTKPTPkLJIxyLvldGhct6A8Gdf-_dUBKNuJAo2_GLayHGtQYGZZViltrOBI1DLDsN-ketH9_jBrE-nM2BXVe2QyGuueG9O6D20MV3Yv5Jl0pipPoIKUyilv8bSJDtxE.RiArluZpy9DA-qnFmSnW8zGnRIl_wfKdNa2JiTojMZE&dib_tag=se&keywords=downfall+book&qid=1723144554&sprefix=downfall+book%2Caps%2C153&sr=8-1
What about the bombing of Dresden? Has it been revised as well?
Chamberlines fear of gas was built on experiences. In the end nobody used gas because they feared retaliation. Nukes today are in a similar situation. But they Work for scaring of others.
I agree Chamberlaine backed out in 1938, But he did declare war in 1939. Few people actually declared war on Hitler.
He did, but after being left with no choice once the security guarantees with Poland were concluded. Of course then he sat back with France and let Poland fall. Some American conservatives today say that if Chamberlain had appeased Hitler again, WW2 might not have happened.
Some American conservatives… hmm.. weird statement I think.
I am not living in Ukraine. I think it is in my interst that Ukraine wins this war. And i think we should support them in that by more equipment and more money. If you call that escalation I am in fabour because I think it is in my interest. And I am not the only one thinking that here. Your statement is low at least on that level. Many people are in favour of escalation definer that way.
Hello Tom, thanks for the analysis, some speculate that it could be a propaganda measure, others say that for a possible exchange of territory. . . in development
I'd suggest that Syrsky wants Gerasimov to move his units away from the Avdiivka direction. If that happens, he may be able to counterattack and, hopefully, encircle the Russian advances.
The "strategic pipelines' story while often repeated doesn't really add up - after Sudzha, those pipelines just go towards Ukraine, so it's not necessary for Ukraine to capture Sudza to control them.
On the other hand, there seems to be a railway passing through there, which is one of the two main lines connecting Moscow to Belgorod. So I imagine losing it will cause some pain for Russian logistics.
But ultimately, if they secure and fortify a small region it almost does not matter how big or strategic the region is, it only matters that they're able to hold it with minimum casualties. Cause temporary news PR aside, as long as Ukraine is holding any part of Russia it makes it politically impossible for Putin to offer a ceasefire without withdrawals. This strenghtens Ukraine's hand in peace negotiations.
Seems like a game of chicken: who has the guts to leave their border unprotected. If Rusia mans its entire border than there will be no reserves left for major attacks. This will scale up recruitment on both sides and the Rusian economy might take a dive.
Yup.