Ukraine War, 8 August 2023: Staromlynivka
Hello everybody!
Sorry, still too busy with work and life to complete the story of Ukrainian Storm Shadows, and a more comprehensive update. Besides, think it’s better not to reveal too many details about certain parts of the frontline: just to observe, in certain areas (even in some areas that might surprise a few), ‘things are looking better than good’.
Instead, here ‘just another short one’ for today, focusing on the Staromaiorske-Staromlynivka area.
Reporting from this area is actually scarce, and some of things one gets to hear aren’t making much sense - except one takes a good look at the map.
Essentially, the Ukrainian naval infantry is attacking in force in this area (three brigades supported by at least three armoured battalions and at least four UAV-units are involved), and it is well-supported by the 19th Missile- and 55th Artillery Brigades (red-yellow ‘explosions’ on the map above are indicating some of areas shelled by Ukrainians over the last two days).
RUMINT has it, the 19th and the 55th have mauled the Russian 305th Artillery Brigade to the degree where this has lost almost all of its heavy weapons and had to be withdrawn out of the range (somewhere south of Staromlynivka).
Mind the dominance and importance of artillery in this war. For the general situation of this sector of the frontline, this means only one thing: the Russians are in deep trouble.
Yes, what’s left of the 60th MRB is still holding out somewhere in Urozhaine, but: parts of this brigade run away in direction of Zavitne Bazhannya, two days ago. Similar is valid for the 247th VDV Regiment: this was smashed by Ukrainians, about a week ago, but survivors then quickly reorganised and sent back into Urozhayne. Some of them fled south, yesterday, but others are still fighting.
The Russians are thus primarily fighting back with Lancet LPGMs and Ka-52 helicopters - and there is no doubt these are unpleasant. Seems, the ZSU has none of its Supacat with ASRAAM SAM-systems, and not enough electronic warfare systems in this area.
That all said, there are strong indications that the command of the 5th CAA has already decided to give up on Urozhayne: at least it ceased sending reinforcements there. Instead, it has assembled some four brigades along the line from Remivka in the west, via Staromlynivka to Kermenchyk, and is NOT deploying any of their elements for counterattacks or to reinforce the two battered units still holding out in the north. Means: actually, the VSRF has given up both the place and the 60th MRB and the 247th VDV Regiment: the'y’re buying time for better preparations, mining etc. of the areas further south.
Buying time with soldiers' lives was the ordinary Stalin's "art of war" in WW II. So now they are buying time to prolong Putler's infamous rule.
Given the steady drumbeat in the MSS that there is no way Ukrainian counteroffensive can make any significant progress which—given the ignorance, cowardice, and hypocrisy in the West—risks making such talk a self-fulfilling prophecy, it is ULTRA important that your professional updates and analyses get through to the too often thick skulls of journalists and editors who play a key role in forming public opinion. It seems we are indeed at a critical tipping point and much depends on individuals like Tom Cooper, Thomas Theiner et al. Thank you!