Hello everybody! To catch with latest developments… AIR/MISSILE WAR For the records: after cooling down (there was lots of anger within the High Command PSU over the ‘revelation’ of this fact in Ukrainian media) Ukrainian air force has officially confirmed that its PAC-3 (Patriot Air Defence system) was used to shot down a Kinzhal missile, on 2 May 2023. It’s unclear exactly what variant of the PAC has Ukraine got (the MIM-104F or something more advanced), and some claim the kill was actually scored by Ukrainian S-300Vs, plus photos of the alleged wreckage seem not to really show a Kinzhal, but well…
Thanks for your work Tom, a very amateur question. Is it possible for the Ukrainian infantry to survive the incendiary artillery attacks if they are in buildings? Thanks again. Rob lee.
They are using phosphorous, which can burn through a lot of materials, though not concrete as far as i am aware, however the danger is of fire spreading, and well it is a banned weapon so they are committing another crime.
But, like all other weapons, they're no 'Wunderwaffen': they're foremost dangerous for unprotected personnel, exposed in the open. Personnel in build-up areas, or in good field fortifications, is usually safe from them.
They're no 'Wunderwaffen': they're foremost dangerous for unprotected personnel, exposed in the open. Personnel in build-up areas, or in good field fortifications, is usually safe from them.
Good to know, and it seems also a slow attack? Troups most likely can take cover in a place like Bakmut, right? So what is the strategy there, They block infaltry movements or It is mostly a strike versus troops morale or to boost the one of their own?
It's 'a little bit of everything': blocking movement, causing fires that are causing casualties and hampering defence efforts; keeping Ukrainians busy with CASEVAC ('instead' with manoeuvring or re-supply activities), shattering their morale etc., etc., etc.
Actually I guess the targets of termite attacks are the un- and armored vehicles parked in the open, maybe behind tall buildings or covered only by camo nets, whose armor can be penetrated by the termite.
That too. Arguably, the ZSU has relatively few vehicles inside Bakhmut, but time and again, it's pushing even its MBTs and IFVs inside; M113s are constantly used for CASEVAC, and there are lots of other, 'soft-skin' vehicles around.
Seems like the Russians still have thousands of POWs to swap with what little POWs that the Ukrainians have, as they normally don't like taking POWs due to logistics etc
So Kadyrovites have not yet deployed in the zone? I'm guessing Wagner needs to do a proper handover and takeover in Bakhmut as most of the buildings are either rubble or structurally unsound
During 9 years of this war, Putin has NO problems with money.
EU bought diesel from Russia more than from ALL other countries all together in 2022.
Just now Moscow empire is selling oil products in volumes approx the same as in 2021. Enough to look at statistics of russian Baltic and Black seas ports. Who is buying all this oil products? Reptiloids, martians? China is buying rus oil, producing oil products and selling them. The same India and Turkey do. Who is buying 3 M barrel/day russian oil products? Who does give billions $ to russian fascists every week?
USA is buying approx 700 000 barrel/day. EU approx 2M barrel/day. There are several schemes. 1. Tankers go to UNKNOWN destination. You know, tankers have the size of mice, so too difficult to find TO what ports they come. 2. Rus oil products go to some ports, where mix in proportions like 95% russian and 5% of some other, after go to USA and EU. 3. Some countries in Africa along the sea path to USA ABRUPTLY after 5 December and in February increased buying russian oil and oil products. And, you know, Malta consumes more russian oil products than the USA.
Western politicians and society sold blood and souls of MH-17 victims to Evil.
They use the same schemas for russian oil. + Kazakhstan abruptly during week increased oil production in Caspian sea on 1 M bar/day. And this oil teleports to Baltic ports and go to EU. And by oil pipeline Druzhba, just to EU oil refineries, which perfectly adjusted to russian oil, NO problems at all. And price of shares Tatneft raised 50% up - it uses this pipeline. This is a pure coincidence!
while the Russians claimed the downing of two Ukrainian Grom-2 ballistic missiles over the occupied Crimea" - Ukraine has NO such things as Grom-2. With range 600 km. O_o
I read somewhere, probably here, that the Russian EW is clustered along the front line.
I wonder if it would be practical to switch on the HIMARS GPS nearer the target after it has passed over the hot EW zone, if practical then probably only practical for targets in the rear areas
I only can wonder the high pace of updates, Tom, because the news show the situation as “stabilised” (whatever the press boys think it may mean).
The use of any kind of incendiaries by Russia is well know, from Grozny to Bakhmut, and no any step was taken against the culprits. Hope when this war ends (and hope it soon) those people “visited” The Hague.
Unexploded 500kg bomb at 11:50. Next shot is a big crater, probably form an exploded one. It's not possible to see, how close they landed to their trenches, i.e. how accurate these strikes are.
Thanks for the update. Thinking about the issue of loitering kamikaze drones, I think a more modern modular hard kill aps system is best using a programmed remote weapons system with special rounds to take out those drones as well as other incoming objects. I wonder why this isn't a top priotity for a lot of governments. I've been thinking about it since the Nagorno Karabakh war. loitering munitions seem like a smart way of taking out expensive gbads, tanks, spaags, self propelled howitzers, etc. And Russia has decently used its Lancets in this war.
Some self aiming systems claims they can shoot drones. AFAIK Israel's Smart Shooter https://www.smart-shooter.com/ has been spotted in UA. I would be curious how such systems perform in real conditions.
Thx for you work Tom!
Thanks for your work Tom, a very amateur question. Is it possible for the Ukrainian infantry to survive the incendiary artillery attacks if they are in buildings? Thanks again. Rob lee.
They are using phosphorous, which can burn through a lot of materials, though not concrete as far as i am aware, however the danger is of fire spreading, and well it is a banned weapon so they are committing another crime.
Yes, it is (though those at upper floors might want to take the steps downwards).
Incendiaries - like, AFAIK, magnesium (also 'termite', probably deployed by MZ-21 rounds, see: https://en.missilery.info/missile/grad/m3-21) used by the Russians in Ukraine since 2014 (see: https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/not-phosphorus-russia-uses-9m22s-incendiary-projectiles-in-ukraine) - are fearsome weapons, no doubt.
But, like all other weapons, they're no 'Wunderwaffen': they're foremost dangerous for unprotected personnel, exposed in the open. Personnel in build-up areas, or in good field fortifications, is usually safe from them.
Hi Tom, thanks! A question: what do you estimate to be the efffexts if the incendiary ammunitions? Are them as effective as scenic?
They're no 'Wunderwaffen': they're foremost dangerous for unprotected personnel, exposed in the open. Personnel in build-up areas, or in good field fortifications, is usually safe from them.
Good to know, and it seems also a slow attack? Troups most likely can take cover in a place like Bakmut, right? So what is the strategy there, They block infaltry movements or It is mostly a strike versus troops morale or to boost the one of their own?
It's 'a little bit of everything': blocking movement, causing fires that are causing casualties and hampering defence efforts; keeping Ukrainians busy with CASEVAC ('instead' with manoeuvring or re-supply activities), shattering their morale etc., etc., etc.
Actually I guess the targets of termite attacks are the un- and armored vehicles parked in the open, maybe behind tall buildings or covered only by camo nets, whose armor can be penetrated by the termite.
That too. Arguably, the ZSU has relatively few vehicles inside Bakhmut, but time and again, it's pushing even its MBTs and IFVs inside; M113s are constantly used for CASEVAC, and there are lots of other, 'soft-skin' vehicles around.
Great work as usual Tom.
https://esut.de/2023/04/meldungen/41324/erste-leopard-1a5-in-kuerze-versandbereit/
Will the supply of these 80 tanks significantly increase the chances of the Ukrainian offensive to succeed?
Thanks Tom! Similar questions - how about TOS-1? Can you survive it in buildings (seems difficult)? Should you be in closed compartments to survive?
Seems like the Russians still have thousands of POWs to swap with what little POWs that the Ukrainians have, as they normally don't like taking POWs due to logistics etc
So Kadyrovites have not yet deployed in the zone? I'm guessing Wagner needs to do a proper handover and takeover in Bakhmut as most of the buildings are either rubble or structurally unsound
Thanks a lot Tom
During 9 years of this war, Putin has NO problems with money.
EU bought diesel from Russia more than from ALL other countries all together in 2022.
Just now Moscow empire is selling oil products in volumes approx the same as in 2021. Enough to look at statistics of russian Baltic and Black seas ports. Who is buying all this oil products? Reptiloids, martians? China is buying rus oil, producing oil products and selling them. The same India and Turkey do. Who is buying 3 M barrel/day russian oil products? Who does give billions $ to russian fascists every week?
USA is buying approx 700 000 barrel/day. EU approx 2M barrel/day. There are several schemes. 1. Tankers go to UNKNOWN destination. You know, tankers have the size of mice, so too difficult to find TO what ports they come. 2. Rus oil products go to some ports, where mix in proportions like 95% russian and 5% of some other, after go to USA and EU. 3. Some countries in Africa along the sea path to USA ABRUPTLY after 5 December and in February increased buying russian oil and oil products. And, you know, Malta consumes more russian oil products than the USA.
Western politicians and society sold blood and souls of MH-17 victims to Evil.
They use the same schemas for russian oil. + Kazakhstan abruptly during week increased oil production in Caspian sea on 1 M bar/day. And this oil teleports to Baltic ports and go to EU. And by oil pipeline Druzhba, just to EU oil refineries, which perfectly adjusted to russian oil, NO problems at all. And price of shares Tatneft raised 50% up - it uses this pipeline. This is a pure coincidence!
while the Russians claimed the downing of two Ukrainian Grom-2 ballistic missiles over the occupied Crimea" - Ukraine has NO such things as Grom-2. With range 600 km. O_o
I read somewhere, probably here, that the Russian EW is clustered along the front line.
I wonder if it would be practical to switch on the HIMARS GPS nearer the target after it has passed over the hot EW zone, if practical then probably only practical for targets in the rear areas
I only can wonder the high pace of updates, Tom, because the news show the situation as “stabilised” (whatever the press boys think it may mean).
The use of any kind of incendiaries by Russia is well know, from Grozny to Bakhmut, and no any step was taken against the culprits. Hope when this war ends (and hope it soon) those people “visited” The Hague.
Unexploded 500kg bomb at 11:50. Next shot is a big crater, probably form an exploded one. It's not possible to see, how close they landed to their trenches, i.e. how accurate these strikes are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nrez6cHi7Ac
Thanks for the report Tom, pretty gritty but of course war is just that
Thanks for the update. Thinking about the issue of loitering kamikaze drones, I think a more modern modular hard kill aps system is best using a programmed remote weapons system with special rounds to take out those drones as well as other incoming objects. I wonder why this isn't a top priotity for a lot of governments. I've been thinking about it since the Nagorno Karabakh war. loitering munitions seem like a smart way of taking out expensive gbads, tanks, spaags, self propelled howitzers, etc. And Russia has decently used its Lancets in this war.
Some self aiming systems claims they can shoot drones. AFAIK Israel's Smart Shooter https://www.smart-shooter.com/ has been spotted in UA. I would be curious how such systems perform in real conditions.
yes something similar to this. placed on top of any of the vehicles and using a different effector.