I’m still finding it mind-boggling what the Russians have done at the Kakhovka Dam yesterday. I am also remaining at the standpoint that I’m unable to properly describe the consequences of this monstrosity. At most, I can try help with some ‘orientation’.
Thanks Tom! A really good insight into the political and cultural side of this. We mirror image Russia at our peril. Except for a tiny minority, Russians think completely differently from westerners--and anyone who doesn't realize this has already lost.
U.S. and allies should ease the "do not attack Russia with our arms" ban to something like "do not attack DEEP inside Russia with our arms" and ZSU could go along the border from Urazovo to Crimea.
Thanks Tom. Do we think the Ukrainian military knew that the dam was set to be blown? And therefore not risking a crossing downstream. Thanks again for all your hard work.
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in't."
I would add to the explanation that I can easily imagine that Comrade Colonel-General was not the brightest bulb when it was about physics, ecology, floods, etc., so in his mind it was just a "more difficult obstacle for the hohols".
I assume this because of the complete lack of preparation of any kind of rescue or salvaging on the left, this time Russian bank. There is a Russian appointed governor, Russian appointed local authorities which were left - verbatim - neck deep in shit.
Engineering is not most people's strong suit but it is mine. Especially power generation. This is a great description of the difficulty of destroying such a construction. Thanks. Additionally the elimination of a major utility source is important to note. Also once the flood plain has subsided. Large awths of carefully prepared defensive works, on both side have been washed away. Of particular note a photo of a mass of anti tank mine pushed up against a bank by the water flow. Thanks again
I liked your articles better when it was more about facts and less about feelings. I can find rants about what a maniac Putin is everywhere on the internet. Sharp analysis on current military events in the Ukraine is a lot harder to find.
Of course you can write whatever you want, but I am also allowed to give my opinion on that. And in my opinion you dont need to repeat every blog how stupid and corrupt the Russian chain of command is. We all know that.
I hope the analysis on military actions will start playing a bigger part in your writing again.
But how could they think that Ukraine was preparing something like a D-Day or Zhukov-like operations? It's completely nonsense without strong fleet , Black Sea dominance, and air superiority. Dnipro islands have too poor logistics to support operations of strategic scale. Ukraine has a land frontline which is stretching on more than 1000 km. Kharkiv-like operations are more obvious.
They boasted that they would blow up the dam for Christmas, but there was no order. The purpose of this people is to do bad things to everyone else. They don't care about Crimea either. They are strangers in this world. 140 million sick people.
I have been here in Ukraine since Jan 2010. I have been dealing with the Russians since the Cold War Days. BUT I still can not understand the Russian Brain (if they indeed have one). Since 2014 I now call this "The Decade of Russians Living Stupidly". I am beyond words over this dam, it seems like everyday the Russians do something totally without logic. Even my Beagle has more sense.... Time for the West to put on their big boy pants and simply END RUSSIA.
Jun 7, 2023·edited Jun 7, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
In my personal perception, the-most-probable scenario is this battalion commander got some histerical order like "for any cost, prevent the capture of the dam", thought in panic that this order means vicious NATO mercenaries going to eat his miserable drunk battalion tomorrow, and so decided that the only way to not fail the order spectacularly is to blow up the dam immediately.
According to the YouTuber "Inside Russia", a law has been adopted on 30 May, that no further examination into the reason for failure of industrial infrastructures is to be conducted on occupied territories if they have been destroyed by a terrorist attack. If this is true, it would point to a long established top-down plan.
What if that is just a preparation for their retreat? They probably understand that their retreat is inevitable. So, how would you explain such a retreat to your people? No russian will be satisfied with that idiotic "good will gesture" explanation anymore, I believe. But what if "we were forced to retreat because of 'force majeure circumstances'". Ok, so now you need to create such "circumstances". Probably, some "crash" or an "accident" on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant might serve as a perfect argument for that. Even more, if your main goal is whether to absorb Ukraine or if you have no power to do that then at least to destroy Ukraine as much as you can to make it unviable, an "accident" on the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe perfectly serves this goal as well. And if you are to direct such an "accident" then you would probably need some sort of "cover story". So here were the Dam comes to the scene, and the narrative might look like this: they will claim that Ukrainians destroyed the Dam which led to water level drop in Dnipro, which led to an accident on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which forced us to retreat from potentially polluted teritory. Ukraine will be left do deal with an unprecedented nuclear catastrophe which would probably eclipse Chornobyl, and at the same time you will pull out from this lost war "saving your face". Viola!
Jun 7, 2023·edited Jun 7, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
"Funny" how lots of russian social medias first reported that they "blow the dam and washed ukrainians into sea" shortly after the explosion. But then, when the scale of destruction became obvious - same media started to scream "ukrainians destroyed the dam!". Exactly, precisely same pattern was observed after MH17 being shot down. First reports were from russians, that they "shot down ukrainian AN-26", which quickly turned into what we know.
So, an Army Group commander issued a direct order to a battalion !!!?? Guess the "max 2 levels lower" rule din not apply. For those who don't know, the superior formation can issue direct orders to subordinated formations who are max 2 levels lower but also needs to inform the intermediate formation. Example: Division can issue direct orders to its battalion commanders but is also obligated to inform their Brigade/Regiment. Cannot and wil not ever issue direct orders to companies or platoons.
Thanks Tom! A really good insight into the political and cultural side of this. We mirror image Russia at our peril. Except for a tiny minority, Russians think completely differently from westerners--and anyone who doesn't realize this has already lost.
U.S. and allies should ease the "do not attack Russia with our arms" ban to something like "do not attack DEEP inside Russia with our arms" and ZSU could go along the border from Urazovo to Crimea.
Thanks Tom. Do we think the Ukrainian military knew that the dam was set to be blown? And therefore not risking a crossing downstream. Thanks again for all your hard work.
"Though this be madness, yet there is method in't."
I would add to the explanation that I can easily imagine that Comrade Colonel-General was not the brightest bulb when it was about physics, ecology, floods, etc., so in his mind it was just a "more difficult obstacle for the hohols".
I assume this because of the complete lack of preparation of any kind of rescue or salvaging on the left, this time Russian bank. There is a Russian appointed governor, Russian appointed local authorities which were left - verbatim - neck deep in shit.
Engineering is not most people's strong suit but it is mine. Especially power generation. This is a great description of the difficulty of destroying such a construction. Thanks. Additionally the elimination of a major utility source is important to note. Also once the flood plain has subsided. Large awths of carefully prepared defensive works, on both side have been washed away. Of particular note a photo of a mass of anti tank mine pushed up against a bank by the water flow. Thanks again
I liked your articles better when it was more about facts and less about feelings. I can find rants about what a maniac Putin is everywhere on the internet. Sharp analysis on current military events in the Ukraine is a lot harder to find.
Of course you can write whatever you want, but I am also allowed to give my opinion on that. And in my opinion you dont need to repeat every blog how stupid and corrupt the Russian chain of command is. We all know that.
I hope the analysis on military actions will start playing a bigger part in your writing again.
But how could they think that Ukraine was preparing something like a D-Day or Zhukov-like operations? It's completely nonsense without strong fleet , Black Sea dominance, and air superiority. Dnipro islands have too poor logistics to support operations of strategic scale. Ukraine has a land frontline which is stretching on more than 1000 km. Kharkiv-like operations are more obvious.
They boasted that they would blow up the dam for Christmas, but there was no order. The purpose of this people is to do bad things to everyone else. They don't care about Crimea either. They are strangers in this world. 140 million sick people.
I have been here in Ukraine since Jan 2010. I have been dealing with the Russians since the Cold War Days. BUT I still can not understand the Russian Brain (if they indeed have one). Since 2014 I now call this "The Decade of Russians Living Stupidly". I am beyond words over this dam, it seems like everyday the Russians do something totally without logic. Even my Beagle has more sense.... Time for the West to put on their big boy pants and simply END RUSSIA.
In my personal perception, the-most-probable scenario is this battalion commander got some histerical order like "for any cost, prevent the capture of the dam", thought in panic that this order means vicious NATO mercenaries going to eat his miserable drunk battalion tomorrow, and so decided that the only way to not fail the order spectacularly is to blow up the dam immediately.
According to the YouTuber "Inside Russia", a law has been adopted on 30 May, that no further examination into the reason for failure of industrial infrastructures is to be conducted on occupied territories if they have been destroyed by a terrorist attack. If this is true, it would point to a long established top-down plan.
What if that is just a preparation for their retreat? They probably understand that their retreat is inevitable. So, how would you explain such a retreat to your people? No russian will be satisfied with that idiotic "good will gesture" explanation anymore, I believe. But what if "we were forced to retreat because of 'force majeure circumstances'". Ok, so now you need to create such "circumstances". Probably, some "crash" or an "accident" on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant might serve as a perfect argument for that. Even more, if your main goal is whether to absorb Ukraine or if you have no power to do that then at least to destroy Ukraine as much as you can to make it unviable, an "accident" on the biggest nuclear power plant in Europe perfectly serves this goal as well. And if you are to direct such an "accident" then you would probably need some sort of "cover story". So here were the Dam comes to the scene, and the narrative might look like this: they will claim that Ukrainians destroyed the Dam which led to water level drop in Dnipro, which led to an accident on Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which forced us to retreat from potentially polluted teritory. Ukraine will be left do deal with an unprecedented nuclear catastrophe which would probably eclipse Chornobyl, and at the same time you will pull out from this lost war "saving your face". Viola!
"Funny" how lots of russian social medias first reported that they "blow the dam and washed ukrainians into sea" shortly after the explosion. But then, when the scale of destruction became obvious - same media started to scream "ukrainians destroyed the dam!". Exactly, precisely same pattern was observed after MH17 being shot down. First reports were from russians, that they "shot down ukrainian AN-26", which quickly turned into what we know.
Short, precise and to the point. Thank you
So, an Army Group commander issued a direct order to a battalion !!!?? Guess the "max 2 levels lower" rule din not apply. For those who don't know, the superior formation can issue direct orders to subordinated formations who are max 2 levels lower but also needs to inform the intermediate formation. Example: Division can issue direct orders to its battalion commanders but is also obligated to inform their Brigade/Regiment. Cannot and wil not ever issue direct orders to companies or platoons.