I've always been amazed that apparently Zebra camouflage worked so well. I guess if you're five metres underwater in choppy seas and lining up a target through a periscope lens it must make it harder somehow.
IIRC, Akshata Murty (Sunak's wife) ran a fashion label. Go figure. Oh, no, it's not that, she must be deliberately wearing dazzle camouflage to distract from the umbrella in her left hand. (This is a very weak joke for those who saw Sunak's rain-soaked umbrella-free announcement of the election. Sorry.)
There are several memes circulating about the bizarre dress. One stated that it was to confuse Tax inspectors as to the direction of her travel and the total of her net worth for tax purposes.
I hoped that the Ukrainian civilians received enough protection and finally, the Ukrainian forces would take one Patriot for their purpose. Also, I hoped the Patriot would relocate along the frontline and hunt.
These are destroyed launchers, I think, not entire batteries or radars. So it's not 2/3 or 2/4 destroyed as one could read it. Otherwise I would be very upset as well.
But lost what exactly? My autotranslate just says Patriot, but thats pretty meaningless given how much units a battery has. The loss of two launchers back in March are well known, im not sure about what else do they mean, although there could certainy unknown losses with no footage for Russian to boast about.
The point is the losses were completely unnecessary and could easily be much worse, we're just "lucky they are so dumb". That sort of luck could run out at any point.
The first Patriot was destroyed because it was not moved at all, in every military textbook says that it is necessary.
After that, the second Patriot was destroyed because it was relocated seldom and was not camouflaged. The local people knew that the SAM system was there. I(Mariana Bezuhla) have questions for the secret service too.
In her post it is written simply "two Patriots", so it isn't understandable is it two batteries, two launchers , two battle units etc. Likely she means two separated units , but it is strange. There is video of destruction of battery near Pokrovsk(Tom made post about it), destruction of radar and one launcher on South about 2 months ago(due to high video quality it is seen that it was mockup, because there are no people and no detonation of launchers and fuel) and yesterday strike on 2 launchers (also likely mockups due to lack of secondary explosions and overall absent evidences of real Patriot on video) . Secondly, personality of Besugla herself is very controversial, because she is a important member of leading political party and used a lot of times the critique of military as a bust of her career. It doesn't mean that it is always total fake, but Besugla always appears in time of military fail and herself isn't useful for defence. Honestly, she avoids president critique and blame solely military. She also wrote a lot of reports to SBU,DBR etc about generals like Zaluzny, Syrsky etc, so I don't know does she do more useful than harm
Hard to kill entire systems (eight launchers, 1 ECS, power supply, etc., etc., etc.) - if they're operated in small firing units (1 ECS, 1 launcher, plus power supply).
Thanks for the update. Although I nearly skipped it when reading your headline. Seems to me you are describing a situation where Russia is winning the airwar. Not very good.
"...by now one thing is but 1000% sure: the S-300 simply can’t shot ballistic missiles."
Please at least make a clear statement, because this sentence is simply not true.
1.: Which S-300 version are you talking about? There is two main development branch, the S-300P and F in one hand the the S-300V in other hand, the two S-300 branch are actually did have nothing common. The Air Force and the Navy mainly want a system against aerial targets and low-flying cruise missile (S-300P family) the Army want an effective anti-ballistic system (S-300V family).
2.: The S-300PS a first generation S-300P series system. The first generation (even the S-300PT) designed to counter 150km ballistic missiles, but with some serious limitations. So yea, the S-300PS actually got an anti-ballistic capability, but that simply not enough a modern Iskander-M missile.
3.: We hardly know what is the exact battlefield situation there. What kind of EW, what kind of attack variables happened there. What we see is there is (again) a single SAM system working, seems to be without layered anti-air screen.
Nice point. You need S-300V to cope with the ballistic missiles. S-300P could manage old things like SCUDs but zero chances versus ATACAMs or Iskanders.
P.S. Tom, a good "quiz" for your Questions&Answers summary. Namely, how good (or bad) some Western and Soviet SAM systems in UA hands (that receive minimum publicity) are doing? I mean I-Hawk, Crotale, Spada, SA-3&6.
....S-300P/PM/etc... ('VKS-variant') ...that 'some anti-ballistic capability' consisted of the Russians 'testing' the system by firing about a dozen of R-17s ('Scud') at it under near-ideal conditions. It shot down a handful, and was promptly declared for 'having anti-ballistic missile capability' - by the Russians, and then by all of the West.
....and the S-300V (the 'army variant')... should have 'some more serious anti-ballistic missile capability' - but I'm yet to see anything confirming that.
And Iskander is anything else than 'modern'. Perhaps 'modern by Pudding's metrics'. It simply can't manoeuvre on re-entry.
Anyway... yes, I'll agree with you that we do not know all too many things. But, we do know that the PSU is having one of its S-300s after the other, and a total of 18 of its P-18s blasted away by Iskanders. And that it's pointless to deploy S-300s - regardless what version - for 'anti-ballistic missile defence': it's never going to work. Just like shooting them at Zalas and similar stuff is 'shooting with nukes at sparrows'... That's 'we must do something' - though perfectly in style of specific of PSU's commanders I happen to monitor for two years...
Foremost: I'm warning and warning about this all for months... (actually, it all started back in summer 2022, when there were first demands for deliveries of Patriots to Ukraine)... You'll have to grant me the right to feel incredibly frustrated to watch 'serious' officers making ridiculous mistakes and the West doing nothing at all (well: next to nothing.... occassionally, they do deliver another PAC-system).
The Soviet Army S-300V requirements dedicated against the US Pershing missiles. So yea, the S-300V are more than capable against ballistic missile - yet Ukraine only got the S-300V1 version which only can be work targets at maximum 1500m/s speed. The Iskander-M and Kinzhal speed well above that.
The S-300P series second and third generation got comparable ABM capability but some serious limitations. Like they can't work against both an ballistic missile and a low flying target in the same time. I wrote an earlier comment about the S-400 kill, which probably use this limitation. If the Ukraine army launch HIMARS and attack with drones at the same time, the crew of the S-300/S-400 complex easily have a bad time.
Do not forget both the Ukraine and Russian officers are well aware of the capabilities and limitations of these systems. And they exploits it most probably as they can...
The Iskander-M is a modern rocket system compared to the S-300PS. The PS system dated 1983 while the Iskander-M dated 2006. The Iskander-M main capability is the speed (above 2100m/s), the depressed ballistic fly path and the decoys. Things that can ruin an S-300PS crew day without any other variables...
Yea, you right about the mistakes but I have to point out the UKR (and Russian) officers have to make hard decisions where clearly no "perfect" answers exits. I do not have any information about why that S-300PS system placed there but we don't even know they even have had missiles for that system (take note the date and how much targets they destroyed).
Тарасівка це місто в 7-8 км від лінії боєзіткнення. Через неї йдуть дороги з Нова Полтавка на Баранівка, Зелене Поле, Олександрополь. Чи варто дивуватись що її обстрілюють, та піддають атакам дронів-fpv, техніку яка там рухається...Нормальна практика для росіян - повісити БПЛА-розвідник над логістичними вузлом, чи над залізничними переїздами і атакувати все, що там рухається...
It’s not that good. They don’t differentiate between murdered civilians and commanding officers. Also if a soldier is killed in action and they don’t recover the body they claim that the soldier deserted. That way they don’t have to pay the family.
Декілька разів бачили жінок при штурмових діях на Маріїнському напрямку. Одна вела вогонь з СПГ по наших позиціях. На Очеретинському напрямку також бачили.
I wonder about just how much impact UMPKs have. - I haven't read much, if any analysis ,not counting pro-ru sources claming they pulverized the AFU, twice by now., but then again they do that bi-weekly.
Generally, it seems to be the troops adapt, theres some early warning going on too, but it all comes at cost of not being able to hold certain positions.
I would guess this is the crux of it, that it forces defenders to fall back?
Two, what could be a good C-UAS solution for Ukraine? It seems SHORAD is insufficient because it either cant reach those recon drones, cant detect them or its too risky to detect them. I know about the Yaks and some unconventional methods, but what would work in the general sense?
That's pretty much my assessment with the glide bombs. They only rarely hit, but the risk means that you have to move once a position is discovered. Thin fronts covered by networked firepower are tough to breach.
Supposedly it's the independent Skala battalion using the Bradley on the Toretsk front. They move around a lot. Bradleys and Marders are being spread around more. This is good. Now send another thousand, NATO.
i know is off topic but how is the artillery war going and also isnt it time to Ukraine to give up on the right bank of Kherson? or at least free up some troops from the left shore? or can Russia pose a threat?
Russian's in tears...sorry to sound cynical, but the only tears I imagine are crocodile tears being shown on camera, while the real people who's tears matter are juuust out of the camera's view
Why such a hunt for P-18? If I remember correctly it is a long range radar used for early warning. But could it be that the Russian are able to geolocate it by the waves it emits?
Thanks Tom, if for nothing else making me snort my coffee reading your last paragraph! 😜
I've always been amazed that apparently Zebra camouflage worked so well. I guess if you're five metres underwater in choppy seas and lining up a target through a periscope lens it must make it harder somehow.
IIRC, Akshata Murty (Sunak's wife) ran a fashion label. Go figure. Oh, no, it's not that, she must be deliberately wearing dazzle camouflage to distract from the umbrella in her left hand. (This is a very weak joke for those who saw Sunak's rain-soaked umbrella-free announcement of the election. Sorry.)
There are several memes circulating about the bizarre dress. One stated that it was to confuse Tax inspectors as to the direction of her travel and the total of her net worth for tax purposes.
last paragraph . . . TOUGH target (not through target)
Mariana Bezuhla said that Ukraine lost two Patriot MIM 104. I'm very upset. https://t.me/marybezuhla/1758
Don't be. It's better to know the reality, thats the only way to choose actions that will have an effect.
I hoped that the Ukrainian civilians received enough protection and finally, the Ukrainian forces would take one Patriot for their purpose. Also, I hoped the Patriot would relocate along the frontline and hunt.
These are destroyed launchers, I think, not entire batteries or radars. So it's not 2/3 or 2/4 destroyed as one could read it. Otherwise I would be very upset as well.
But lost what exactly? My autotranslate just says Patriot, but thats pretty meaningless given how much units a battery has. The loss of two launchers back in March are well known, im not sure about what else do they mean, although there could certainy unknown losses with no footage for Russian to boast about.
The point is the losses were completely unnecessary and could easily be much worse, we're just "lucky they are so dumb". That sort of luck could run out at any point.
This is my translation:
The first Patriot was destroyed because it was not moved at all, in every military textbook says that it is necessary.
After that, the second Patriot was destroyed because it was relocated seldom and was not camouflaged. The local people knew that the SAM system was there. I(Mariana Bezuhla) have questions for the secret service too.
In her post it is written simply "two Patriots", so it isn't understandable is it two batteries, two launchers , two battle units etc. Likely she means two separated units , but it is strange. There is video of destruction of battery near Pokrovsk(Tom made post about it), destruction of radar and one launcher on South about 2 months ago(due to high video quality it is seen that it was mockup, because there are no people and no detonation of launchers and fuel) and yesterday strike on 2 launchers (also likely mockups due to lack of secondary explosions and overall absent evidences of real Patriot on video) . Secondly, personality of Besugla herself is very controversial, because she is a important member of leading political party and used a lot of times the critique of military as a bust of her career. It doesn't mean that it is always total fake, but Besugla always appears in time of military fail and herself isn't useful for defence. Honestly, she avoids president critique and blame solely military. She also wrote a lot of reports to SBU,DBR etc about generals like Zaluzny, Syrsky etc, so I don't know does she do more useful than harm
Two launchers, yes. Not two systems.
Hard to kill entire systems (eight launchers, 1 ECS, power supply, etc., etc., etc.) - if they're operated in small firing units (1 ECS, 1 launcher, plus power supply).
Unless they're Russian S300/400s and bunch together cause Russians haven't figured out how to make longer cable spools! :D
Thanks for the update. Although I nearly skipped it when reading your headline. Seems to me you are describing a situation where Russia is winning the airwar. Not very good.
Russia is in possession of aerial superiority. And winning the missile war. There's no doubt about that.
The question is only: who's going to be the first to run out of missiles? Russia out of Iskander-Ms or Ukraine out of ATACMS?
"...by now one thing is but 1000% sure: the S-300 simply can’t shot ballistic missiles."
Please at least make a clear statement, because this sentence is simply not true.
1.: Which S-300 version are you talking about? There is two main development branch, the S-300P and F in one hand the the S-300V in other hand, the two S-300 branch are actually did have nothing common. The Air Force and the Navy mainly want a system against aerial targets and low-flying cruise missile (S-300P family) the Army want an effective anti-ballistic system (S-300V family).
2.: The S-300PS a first generation S-300P series system. The first generation (even the S-300PT) designed to counter 150km ballistic missiles, but with some serious limitations. So yea, the S-300PS actually got an anti-ballistic capability, but that simply not enough a modern Iskander-M missile.
3.: We hardly know what is the exact battlefield situation there. What kind of EW, what kind of attack variables happened there. What we see is there is (again) a single SAM system working, seems to be without layered anti-air screen.
So in short: do not make hasty judgement...
Nice point. You need S-300V to cope with the ballistic missiles. S-300P could manage old things like SCUDs but zero chances versus ATACAMs or Iskanders.
P.S. Tom, a good "quiz" for your Questions&Answers summary. Namely, how good (or bad) some Western and Soviet SAM systems in UA hands (that receive minimum publicity) are doing? I mean I-Hawk, Crotale, Spada, SA-3&6.
I know about the S-300-family, but...
....S-300P/PM/etc... ('VKS-variant') ...that 'some anti-ballistic capability' consisted of the Russians 'testing' the system by firing about a dozen of R-17s ('Scud') at it under near-ideal conditions. It shot down a handful, and was promptly declared for 'having anti-ballistic missile capability' - by the Russians, and then by all of the West.
....and the S-300V (the 'army variant')... should have 'some more serious anti-ballistic missile capability' - but I'm yet to see anything confirming that.
And Iskander is anything else than 'modern'. Perhaps 'modern by Pudding's metrics'. It simply can't manoeuvre on re-entry.
Anyway... yes, I'll agree with you that we do not know all too many things. But, we do know that the PSU is having one of its S-300s after the other, and a total of 18 of its P-18s blasted away by Iskanders. And that it's pointless to deploy S-300s - regardless what version - for 'anti-ballistic missile defence': it's never going to work. Just like shooting them at Zalas and similar stuff is 'shooting with nukes at sparrows'... That's 'we must do something' - though perfectly in style of specific of PSU's commanders I happen to monitor for two years...
Foremost: I'm warning and warning about this all for months... (actually, it all started back in summer 2022, when there were first demands for deliveries of Patriots to Ukraine)... You'll have to grant me the right to feel incredibly frustrated to watch 'serious' officers making ridiculous mistakes and the West doing nothing at all (well: next to nothing.... occassionally, they do deliver another PAC-system).
The Soviet Army S-300V requirements dedicated against the US Pershing missiles. So yea, the S-300V are more than capable against ballistic missile - yet Ukraine only got the S-300V1 version which only can be work targets at maximum 1500m/s speed. The Iskander-M and Kinzhal speed well above that.
The S-300P series second and third generation got comparable ABM capability but some serious limitations. Like they can't work against both an ballistic missile and a low flying target in the same time. I wrote an earlier comment about the S-400 kill, which probably use this limitation. If the Ukraine army launch HIMARS and attack with drones at the same time, the crew of the S-300/S-400 complex easily have a bad time.
Do not forget both the Ukraine and Russian officers are well aware of the capabilities and limitations of these systems. And they exploits it most probably as they can...
The Iskander-M is a modern rocket system compared to the S-300PS. The PS system dated 1983 while the Iskander-M dated 2006. The Iskander-M main capability is the speed (above 2100m/s), the depressed ballistic fly path and the decoys. Things that can ruin an S-300PS crew day without any other variables...
Yea, you right about the mistakes but I have to point out the UKR (and Russian) officers have to make hard decisions where clearly no "perfect" answers exits. I do not have any information about why that S-300PS system placed there but we don't even know they even have had missiles for that system (take note the date and how much targets they destroyed).
They have to do the right decisions - or they're going to become extinct in a few months.
....as illustrated by the fact that deploying an unsupported S-300 and P-18 was a bad decision.
Тарасівка це місто в 7-8 км від лінії боєзіткнення. Через неї йдуть дороги з Нова Полтавка на Баранівка, Зелене Поле, Олександрополь. Чи варто дивуватись що її обстрілюють, та піддають атакам дронів-fpv, техніку яка там рухається...Нормальна практика для росіян - повісити БПЛА-розвідник над логістичними вузлом, чи над залізничними переїздами і атакувати все, що там рухається...
“have seized most of Spirne, and seem to have pushed Ukrainians out of Rozdolivka.
Bakhmut… RUMINT has it the ZSU has recovered Lozdolivka…”
Thanks Tom. Aren’t you writing about the same R(l)ozdoluvka?
Some a bit good news: Fragging, Desertions, and Other Problems Mounting for Russian Invaders
https://jamestown.org/program/fragging-desertions-and-other-problems-mounting-for-russian-invaders/
It’s not that good. They don’t differentiate between murdered civilians and commanding officers. Also if a soldier is killed in action and they don’t recover the body they claim that the soldier deserted. That way they don’t have to pay the family.
I swear, i did not saw the women, before i read your comment.
She looked like a decor to me :D
Декілька разів бачили жінок при штурмових діях на Маріїнському напрямку. Одна вела вогонь з СПГ по наших позиціях. На Очеретинському напрямку також бачили.
В жодному разі не заперечую ваші слова, але я думаю, тут мали на увазі пані з фотографії у останньому абзаці
I wonder about just how much impact UMPKs have. - I haven't read much, if any analysis ,not counting pro-ru sources claming they pulverized the AFU, twice by now., but then again they do that bi-weekly.
Generally, it seems to be the troops adapt, theres some early warning going on too, but it all comes at cost of not being able to hold certain positions.
I would guess this is the crux of it, that it forces defenders to fall back?
Two, what could be a good C-UAS solution for Ukraine? It seems SHORAD is insufficient because it either cant reach those recon drones, cant detect them or its too risky to detect them. I know about the Yaks and some unconventional methods, but what would work in the general sense?
That's pretty much my assessment with the glide bombs. They only rarely hit, but the risk means that you have to move once a position is discovered. Thin fronts covered by networked firepower are tough to breach.
Supposedly it's the independent Skala battalion using the Bradley on the Toretsk front. They move around a lot. Bradleys and Marders are being spread around more. This is good. Now send another thousand, NATO.
Thanks for the update and sad news.
i know is off topic but how is the artillery war going and also isnt it time to Ukraine to give up on the right bank of Kherson? or at least free up some troops from the left shore? or can Russia pose a threat?
Thank you Tom for the report
Russian's in tears...sorry to sound cynical, but the only tears I imagine are crocodile tears being shown on camera, while the real people who's tears matter are juuust out of the camera's view
Hi Tom,
Why such a hunt for P-18? If I remember correctly it is a long range radar used for early warning. But could it be that the Russian are able to geolocate it by the waves it emits?