86 Comments

Interesting developments. I hope the Ukrainians are able to cause serious losses in Robotyne. I get the impression from this information Russia may not have enough men and equipment to protect the rear areas after Ukraine breaks through past Novoprokopivka.

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Watching the offensive going one step at a time I am only worried , that our (west) support might run out of ‘patience’, before Ukraine can reach their goals. Would you consider writing a piece on the ongoing weapons deliveries and the projection for the near future? Also - not having a good enough idea about Ukrainian losses fuels endless speculations how they are doing and whether they are running out of X (insert any relevant component or human resource).

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Another good update. Thanks!

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Aug 6, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the update. I had been waiting it, because I detected an increase in putinist BS in the media regarding the offensive (they call it “counteroffensive”) is stalled, and with great cost in ZSU casualties (personal and vehicles). The slow approach suits better to a (heavily) mined ground, IMHO.

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Aug 6, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Just a little nitpicking: "Zavitne and Bazhannya" are 2 words of the same name. "Zavetnoe Zhelanie" are the same 2 words in Russian. You can just call it Cherished Wish (that's what it means, and no, I've no idea who came up with an idea to call a village THAT). :)

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Tom, Zavitne Bazhannya is the one village, not two.. and it is the same as Zavetnoe Zhelanie (name of in russian).. it is like Black forest and Schwarzwald..

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What does this means -37th MRB (Urozhayne)

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Many thanks about your valuable information. Eager to know your opinion about the latest developments in maritime war.

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"Fresh 37 mrb"?! This Buryat brigade is in position between Novodonetskoe and Urojainoe from early june, more them 2 months

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Thank you, Tom. Slow and steady.

Let's hope dry weather would stay for longer...

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Aug 6, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you.

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Dear Tom, "Zavitne and Bazhannya" is actually one village, not two )

"Zavitne Bazhannya" translates to English as "Secret Wish".

In another paragraph you mentioned "Zavetnoe Zhelanie", which is the same village but no in Russian language (I guess you got it from Russian map).

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Great Update! Short and directly the important notes!

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With Ukraine's latest hit on the Russian oil tanker Sig, they are trying to turn the Black Sea into a no-go area for Russian civilian ships.

I understand Russia's main grain exports are from the ports of Novorossiisk and Taman which are demonstrably in range of Ukraine's drones as are the occupied Ukraine ports.

There is also the fact that all ships have to pass through the Bosphorus which helps with targeting.

If Ukraine can bottle up Russian grain exports it might encourage Putin to rethink the grain deal.

Blocking Russian oil exports would also be useful, their Black sea ports are the Black Sea terminal of Sheskharis, near Novorossiisk, and around 150 Km away is Yuzhnaya Ozereevka.

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Hi Tom. Have you any information about Vasylivka, Luhove and other villages in this area?

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Aug 6, 2023·edited Aug 6, 2023

This week, Michael Kofman has sounded pessimistic about the offensive on a podcast, arguing that UKR has made a strategic mistake in using experienced troops in Bakhmut for too long and is now stuck with western trained inexperienced brigades that can't break through RUS lines. On the other hand, Arty Green was more optimistic in an interview, saying UKR progess is not yet to be measured in km but in killed Russians, and by that measure UKR is very successful, and soon UKR could move to manoeuvre warfare. What are your thoughts on this?

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