Well, I've added that little word 'if' at the start of the sentence and expressed my reservation, but if that's not enough and anybody is jumping to conclusions.... sorry, no time for that.
I wonder what Ukraine is gonna do then. They cant be in a very good situation. From one hand launching an offensive against an enemy who has superiority in aviation and artillery sounds like a bad idea but then again their counteroffensive is so hyped that not launching is a bad idea as well. IN this situation Russia would only need to sit behind their defences and wait.... but instead they grind their forces in constant attacks. Or is the Russian army so big that they can afford it?
What do you think, is it possible to neutralize at least temporarily Russian aviation?
To do this, I think it's not even necessary to destroy aircraft, for example, attacks on fuel storage facilities at airfields will temporarily complicate logistics and I think will give the Ukrainians time to conduct a successful counterattack.
It is possible, but is going to take another 3-4 PAC-3 SAM-systems, and quite a few electronic warfare systems. Right now, not sure if Ukraine is going to get as many - at least not before autumn this year.
While the damage on the POL depot in Sevastopol was quite extensive (as observed on the numerous videos) the strikes on the POL depots and the refinery in Russia proper seems to have caused quiet limited damage. You can see one oil reservoir burning while the neighboring ones have no damage. Do you think this is effective? I mean rather than sending a couple of drones here and there, a more concentrated barrage was needed IMO. Now the Russians, knowing that these facilities are feasible targets, will just send more antiaircraft guns to keep them and make any further strikes by ZSU more difficult
Ideally, yes: every single strike would include a 'swarm' of UCAVs and completely obliterate every single target. Obviously, Ukrainians do not have enough.
And the Russians....can't send an endless number of air defence systems to protect every of their facilities.
Thanks for the report Tom, generally an upbeat one, looks like the Russian's only have 4 day to take Bakhmut to beat their chest on 9 May and its not looking like they will. I feel the ZSU counteroffensive will be effective but I do worry about the VKS is going to be toublesome
A Great amount of information in a short space, thanks as always for it, Tom.
And for anybody that haven’t purchased Ukraine War vol. 2 (and I can’t found a reason for don’t do that), run for a copy. It was to be invaluable in the future, when the peace had come and the full series was finished.
Well, I've added that little word 'if' at the start of the sentence and expressed my reservation, but if that's not enough and anybody is jumping to conclusions.... sorry, no time for that.
What is your source for claiming the Kinzhal has a ceramic cap?
I thought only Russians knew such details. Silly me!
....ah, and, BTW: the HIgh Command PSU meanwhile confirmed the downing of a Kh-47 Kinzhal....
My word, Tom, the thoroughness of your reports... outstanding! I hope you have lots and lots of new news coming your way soon!
Thx. Hope 'they' are going to give me at least a week - or, better: two - more. Gotta finish a few books... ;-)
Thanks a lot Tom
Any comments about Prigozhin's declaracions?
Except for what I've mentioned above? Nope.
For me, that's 'ambient noises': something actually aiming at the Russian public, and is related to power struggles in Moscow.
I wonder what Ukraine is gonna do then. They cant be in a very good situation. From one hand launching an offensive against an enemy who has superiority in aviation and artillery sounds like a bad idea but then again their counteroffensive is so hyped that not launching is a bad idea as well. IN this situation Russia would only need to sit behind their defences and wait.... but instead they grind their forces in constant attacks. Or is the Russian army so big that they can afford it?
The Russian army is 'big', but qualitatively it's in worst shape since it was the Soviet Army, back in 1942.
Ukraine - and Ukrainians, and all the Western 'fans' - need to be patient now. Very, very patient.
Thank you for your work!
What do you think, is it possible to neutralize at least temporarily Russian aviation?
To do this, I think it's not even necessary to destroy aircraft, for example, attacks on fuel storage facilities at airfields will temporarily complicate logistics and I think will give the Ukrainians time to conduct a successful counterattack.
It is possible, but is going to take another 3-4 PAC-3 SAM-systems, and quite a few electronic warfare systems. Right now, not sure if Ukraine is going to get as many - at least not before autumn this year.
Hi Tom, you clarified why F16’s are economically not the best choice. But what about A10’s ?
Wouldn’t they require less training, less expensive missiles while still provide the close to the ground airsupport for infantry and tanks?
The principal difference between the A-10 and Su-25 is the range/endurance. So, they wouldn't bring anything the PSU does not already have.
Hi Tom,
While the damage on the POL depot in Sevastopol was quite extensive (as observed on the numerous videos) the strikes on the POL depots and the refinery in Russia proper seems to have caused quiet limited damage. You can see one oil reservoir burning while the neighboring ones have no damage. Do you think this is effective? I mean rather than sending a couple of drones here and there, a more concentrated barrage was needed IMO. Now the Russians, knowing that these facilities are feasible targets, will just send more antiaircraft guns to keep them and make any further strikes by ZSU more difficult
Ideally, yes: every single strike would include a 'swarm' of UCAVs and completely obliterate every single target. Obviously, Ukrainians do not have enough.
And the Russians....can't send an endless number of air defence systems to protect every of their facilities.
Thanks for the report Tom, generally an upbeat one, looks like the Russian's only have 4 day to take Bakhmut to beat their chest on 9 May and its not looking like they will. I feel the ZSU counteroffensive will be effective but I do worry about the VKS is going to be toublesome
Great report as always thank you
A Great amount of information in a short space, thanks as always for it, Tom.
And for anybody that haven’t purchased Ukraine War vol. 2 (and I can’t found a reason for don’t do that), run for a copy. It was to be invaluable in the future, when the peace had come and the full series was finished.
Thx; always nice to hear all the work is of some use.