Hello everybody! To complete my ‘review of the last week’, initiated yesterday… MISSILE WAR Late on 3 May, the Russians launched a stream of 26 Shahed-131/136 LPGMs in direction of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhya: the PSU claimed 21 as shot down. Three are known to have hit a POL depot in Kirovohrad, setting it on fire.
I wonder what Ukraine is gonna do then. They cant be in a very good situation. From one hand launching an offensive against an enemy who has superiority in aviation and artillery sounds like a bad idea but then again their counteroffensive is so hyped that not launching is a bad idea as well. IN this situation Russia would only need to sit behind their defences and wait.... but instead they grind their forces in constant attacks. Or is the Russian army so big that they can afford it?
What do you think, is it possible to neutralize at least temporarily Russian aviation?
To do this, I think it's not even necessary to destroy aircraft, for example, attacks on fuel storage facilities at airfields will temporarily complicate logistics and I think will give the Ukrainians time to conduct a successful counterattack.
While the damage on the POL depot in Sevastopol was quite extensive (as observed on the numerous videos) the strikes on the POL depots and the refinery in Russia proper seems to have caused quiet limited damage. You can see one oil reservoir burning while the neighboring ones have no damage. Do you think this is effective? I mean rather than sending a couple of drones here and there, a more concentrated barrage was needed IMO. Now the Russians, knowing that these facilities are feasible targets, will just send more antiaircraft guns to keep them and make any further strikes by ZSU more difficult
Thanks for the report Tom, generally an upbeat one, looks like the Russian's only have 4 day to take Bakhmut to beat their chest on 9 May and its not looking like they will. I feel the ZSU counteroffensive will be effective but I do worry about the VKS is going to be toublesome
A Great amount of information in a short space, thanks as always for it, Tom.
And for anybody that haven’t purchased Ukraine War vol. 2 (and I can’t found a reason for don’t do that), run for a copy. It was to be invaluable in the future, when the peace had come and the full series was finished.
My word, Tom, the thoroughness of your reports... outstanding! I hope you have lots and lots of new news coming your way soon!
Thanks a lot Tom
Any comments about Prigozhin's declaracions?
I wonder what Ukraine is gonna do then. They cant be in a very good situation. From one hand launching an offensive against an enemy who has superiority in aviation and artillery sounds like a bad idea but then again their counteroffensive is so hyped that not launching is a bad idea as well. IN this situation Russia would only need to sit behind their defences and wait.... but instead they grind their forces in constant attacks. Or is the Russian army so big that they can afford it?
Thank you for your work!
What do you think, is it possible to neutralize at least temporarily Russian aviation?
To do this, I think it's not even necessary to destroy aircraft, for example, attacks on fuel storage facilities at airfields will temporarily complicate logistics and I think will give the Ukrainians time to conduct a successful counterattack.
Hi Tom, you clarified why F16’s are economically not the best choice. But what about A10’s ?
Wouldn’t they require less training, less expensive missiles while still provide the close to the ground airsupport for infantry and tanks?
Hi Tom,
While the damage on the POL depot in Sevastopol was quite extensive (as observed on the numerous videos) the strikes on the POL depots and the refinery in Russia proper seems to have caused quiet limited damage. You can see one oil reservoir burning while the neighboring ones have no damage. Do you think this is effective? I mean rather than sending a couple of drones here and there, a more concentrated barrage was needed IMO. Now the Russians, knowing that these facilities are feasible targets, will just send more antiaircraft guns to keep them and make any further strikes by ZSU more difficult
Thanks for the report Tom, generally an upbeat one, looks like the Russian's only have 4 day to take Bakhmut to beat their chest on 9 May and its not looking like they will. I feel the ZSU counteroffensive will be effective but I do worry about the VKS is going to be toublesome
Great report as always thank you
A Great amount of information in a short space, thanks as always for it, Tom.
And for anybody that haven’t purchased Ukraine War vol. 2 (and I can’t found a reason for don’t do that), run for a copy. It was to be invaluable in the future, when the peace had come and the full series was finished.