All your other points still stand. The Polish general even said F-35s were tracking it, yet they still not only didn't shoot it down but the missile flew for 400 km in Polish airspace and they couldn't even find the wreckage of it for 6 months. Good thing it seems it had an inert warhead, so was probably one of the decoys launched to confuse the air defence during those winter strikes.
Polish media say this missile came from Belarus in December, while most air defence was concentrated on the border with Ukraine after the "Przewodów incident". Second, Polish air defence strength is estimated to be at most 1/10 of Ukrainian one, I have no idea how much all these AWACS's add to it. Anyway, allegedly since December the presence of AWACS-type aircraft has been intensified. If they noticed a missile then, then why they lost track of it - I don't know. The missile was found by accident by, let's say, a tourist, in a forest. It must have been there for some time, it has inscriptions in the Russian script and the electronics looked really old. Now everyone ponders whether the missile cap[able of carrying a nuclear payload malfunctioned or whether it was sent on purpose by Gerasimov, as the place it was found is very close to what is the major NATO centre in Poland, as well as one of the largest industrial facility that helps service Ukrainian war hardware.
You just need to zoom out more. West does not want Ukraine to win, they just need this war to drag on as much as possible and then once Ukraine is finally beaten by Russia then they can have their big war that helps to reset our crashing economy.
Or let me put the next months into context. Russia is using the same playbook as in 1943. They are waiting for the Ukrainians to launch their offensive against prepared defences (just like Germans did at the Kursk) and once they have exhausted themselves then the Russian offensive will start.
> are going to remain a problem unless the ZSU both bolsters its air defences with systems capable of intercepting high-flying aircraft from ranges of around 80-90km.
Would F-16s help in the interceptor role to push Russian aircraft faryer away from the front lines?
Thanks a lot Tom
Thanks a lot, Tom. Just one minor point. That Kh-55/Kh-555 missile was launched towards Poland during the massive air strike on Ukraine on December 16th. They only now found the wreckage. There's a Polskie Radio writeup available here: https://polskieradio24.pl/5/1222/artykul/3159107,wojskowy-obiekt-pod-bydgoszcza-premier-sa-podstawy-by-laczyc-znalezione-szczatki-z-incydentem-z-grudnia
All your other points still stand. The Polish general even said F-35s were tracking it, yet they still not only didn't shoot it down but the missile flew for 400 km in Polish airspace and they couldn't even find the wreckage of it for 6 months. Good thing it seems it had an inert warhead, so was probably one of the decoys launched to confuse the air defence during those winter strikes.
Polish media say this missile came from Belarus in December, while most air defence was concentrated on the border with Ukraine after the "Przewodów incident". Second, Polish air defence strength is estimated to be at most 1/10 of Ukrainian one, I have no idea how much all these AWACS's add to it. Anyway, allegedly since December the presence of AWACS-type aircraft has been intensified. If they noticed a missile then, then why they lost track of it - I don't know. The missile was found by accident by, let's say, a tourist, in a forest. It must have been there for some time, it has inscriptions in the Russian script and the electronics looked really old. Now everyone ponders whether the missile cap[able of carrying a nuclear payload malfunctioned or whether it was sent on purpose by Gerasimov, as the place it was found is very close to what is the major NATO centre in Poland, as well as one of the largest industrial facility that helps service Ukrainian war hardware.
Thank you Tom! Different (from others) angle, as usual.
Hey Tom,fantastic analysis as allways and looking forward to pt.2.
I stumbled upon this video of russian tank stocks still not used,it is really nicely done.
https://youtu.be/2PHUK6zkbpc
What is accuracy of Russian UMPK(the same as JDAM or higher/lower)?
And how UMPK work agains artillery — effective or not>
thank you
You just need to zoom out more. West does not want Ukraine to win, they just need this war to drag on as much as possible and then once Ukraine is finally beaten by Russia then they can have their big war that helps to reset our crashing economy.
Or let me put the next months into context. Russia is using the same playbook as in 1943. They are waiting for the Ukrainians to launch their offensive against prepared defences (just like Germans did at the Kursk) and once they have exhausted themselves then the Russian offensive will start.
It looks more like Ukrainians allow Russia to exhaust its forces in Bakmut and Avdiivka, Vuhledar before launching counteroffensive
Many thanks, Tom, for your time and expertise. Hope you stay well (und Herr Tigger, Auf sein Befehl!)
Thanks for another interesting read Tom, I am curious why no one has adapted an ECM pod on Ukraine's aircraft.
I can see only one REAL way to protect from russians BOMBS: destroy russians jets on the bases by using different UAVs and sabotage
> are going to remain a problem unless the ZSU both bolsters its air defences with systems capable of intercepting high-flying aircraft from ranges of around 80-90km.
Would F-16s help in the interceptor role to push Russian aircraft faryer away from the front lines?
Hi Tom,
schönen Dank für das Video mit UKRlife, sehr verständlich, strukturiert erklärt und somit äußerst wertvoll!
Schöne Grüße auch an die Katze (und den Hahn 😉).