Ukraine War, 4 August 2024

Hello everybody!

A brief update for today, to catch with different of latest developments (‘before returning to yet more analysis’).

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‘DIPLOMA… (ahem)… CY’

For the start today… something unusual, I guess. ….or entirely usual, actually…

As should be well-known by now, I love our politicians. I love them so much, can’t say. All of them, ‘here’, in the ‘West’ (which is: including those in East Europe). From the bottom of my heart. Even deeper…so deep….all the way down to…. ahem…

Thus, and just for example, today I cannot but express my endless love for the Hungarian government; even less so for the members of the European Council.

….and I’m deeply touched, almost in tears when doing that…

The Hungarian government…. snif… almost as skilled as the Trump Admin. So competent, so concerned for the well-being of the country and well-being of its people that it acts promptly and accurately. Always and forever. Without exceptions. I’m sure, all Hungarians are immediately going to agree that it’s the best and wisest Hungarian government ever, ever, ever…

So, for example, Budapest did not react when Kyiv banned all the oil transfers of Lukoil, back on 26 June. Nah. Why should it? It reacted to this only once its foreign minister, honourable Péter Szijjártó, met the foreign minister of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, in mid-July.

Because Hungary is a sovereign country, governed by a government responsible to the Hungarian people, acting in interest of the Hungarian people, and thus its government needs neither reminders nor instructions from Pudding…

Plain obvious, isn’t it?

That’s approximately the same like when the EU was quick in suspending diplomatic relations to Austria, once the FPÖ was elected into the government, back in 2000. But, didn’t do anything similar when the FPÖ was involved into another government, few years later - and even less so is it doing the same nowadays, when a similar, ‘freedom-loving’ and Pudding-allied gang is in power in Hungary.

What a consequent policy and application of the rule of law… I’m both amazed and deeply impressed…. and touched, once again… snif…

And the explanation is obvious, too. Why should the EU care about the government of Hungary violating the rights of the people of Hungary - and make use of something called the Article 7 of the Nice Treaty (which states that the European Council can declare the existence of a ‘serious and persistent breach of fundamental rights’ and suspend certain rights of member-states)?

Absolutely unnecessary…

(But nah: it’s me, and I’m clueless how diplomacy works, and when I express critique of this kind then it means that I’m convinced I could do it better, while declaring everybody else for stupids…)

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AIR/MISSILE WAR

The Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence force is celebrating its 20th anniversary. Correspondingly, it released a nice video showing a Su-24M and a Su-24MR releasing a total of 4 Storm Shadow missiles.

….must only hope this was taken more recently than on 2 July, when the last ‘confirmed’ Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG-strike was flown by PSU’s fighter-bombers (with other words: yes, I remain concerned about their continuous supply by glorious… caugh…. caugh… Ukrainian ‘allies’ in the ‘West’).

At least as cool was a video showing the release of either a GBU-38 or GBU-62 JDAM-ER from a Su-27, from which I took this screen-grab (the weapon is visible within the red circle I’ve added to the left):

Meanwhile, the air war is heating up…

1 August

• this was a day of really a lot of Russian air strikes with UMPK-glide bombs and long-range artillery strikes. Think over 200 were counted in total - and that along the entire frontline, from Symynivka (northern Kharkiv), via Kupyansk (hit by at least 4 UMPKs) and Senkove, Izyum (hit by an Iskander-M), Lyman (hit by UMPB D-30SN small-diameter glide-bombs), Kostyantinivka (hit by some 4-8 UMPBs), Selydove, Nikopol (heavily pounted by artillery and attack-UAVs), all the way down to Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Ochakiv.

2 August

• the VKS flew numerous air strikes with UMPK-glide bombs on ZSU positions behind the frontlines in northern Kharkiv, Kupyansk-Svatove sector, and on Velyka Novosilka.

3 August

• Yesterday in the morning, the PSU claimed to have shot down 24 Russian Shahed attack UAVs.

• then the SBU and/or the PSU hit the Morozovsk AB again (for the third time within a month), blowing up the local POL- and/or ammo depot, and causing numerous other fires.

Can only say: oh, yes! Finally, a sustained, consequent action against one of major VKS air bases used for aggression on Ukraine. So much so, if I would be religious, I would now probably thank whatever God/Gods or a few saints. Of course, as a miserable atheist, I’m left without a choice but to express my gratitude to one or another of Ukrainian generals - almost certainly one I’m criticising so often, lately…

But then: the life is full of irony.

• Also hit by Ukrainian UAVs (and set afire) was the Atlas POL in Astrhovski, in Rostov-na-Donu Oblast.

  

• Additional UAV strikes have hit the Russian power network in the Rostov-na-Donu area.

• One of Ukrainian UAVs underway over the Russian Federation yesterday has hit an apartment building in Orel. The Russians report they have jammed it and that caused the weapon to stray off course… Hope, no civilians were injured…

• Finally, the GenStab-U (the one in Kyiv) claimed to have hit and ‘sunk’ the Russian conventionally powered attack submarine B-237 Rostov-na-Donu, in the port of Sevastopol.

Those with memory better than that of the fish might recall that the same sub was hit by Ukrainian missiles (probably Storm Shadow/SCALP-EGs) back on 13 September last year.

Now, as can be seen from, for example, photos of the following kind, back then the weapon in question drilled itself into the top of the forward hull of the vessel, detonated inside and then either some of that explosion, or a ‘secondary’ detonation (one caused by a fire caused by the hit) ‘vented’ itself through the side of the vessel:

….which is precisely the reason why I’m a bit sceptical about the Ukrainians now sinking the same sub: i.e. that the Rostov-na-Donu was already repaired, in a matter of less than 10 months.

Namely, the sub hit on 13 September 2023 was really ‘wrecked’. The missile destroyed its control centre and the forward torpedo room. Plus damaged its machinery spaces, probably batteries, too. That’s why I doubt even the Russian Navy’s dockyards in Sevastopol have the capacity and tools necessary to de-facto build it a new within such a short period of time. Thus, me thinks, they Ukrainians have either hit the un-repaired hulk of the Rostov-na-Donu or an entirely different sub: after all, the Black Sea Fleet used to have more than one submarine of this class.

But, well… ‘never say never’…

4 August

• this morning, the PSU claimed a total of 5 Shaheds as shot down the last night.

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BATTLE OF DONBAS

Northern Kharkiv…relatively few Russian assaults to report, and no shifts in the frontlines.

Kupyansk-Svatove…. lots of Russian air strikes with UMPK-glide-bombs…

Siversk… relatively quiet, perhaps 100m of Russian ‘advance’…

Bakhmut… the VDV seems to have lost its appetite for advancing further into Chasiv Yar. Or run out of Mobiks it could continue wasting while trying to do so. Not sure this is anything that might last, though…

Toretsk… my impression is that this week the Russians run most of their assaults in this area. And they run them in all parts of this sector - though without managing the capture any additional terrain. Always fascinating to see what a single good battalion (Skala) can effect ‘despite’ the poor local command (41st Mech).

Avdiivka-Pokrovsk…. remains the ‘hottest’ sector of the frontline. Indeed, the Russians have certainly managed to punch through the frontline of the 31st Mech, early this week. Advanced for about 2,000m along the railway berm west of Prohres before being stopped. While this is ‘at least in different direction’ than what might have been expected - i.e. towards the local stretch of the vital T0504 highway from Pokrovsk via Mirhorod to Kostyantinivka - it’s still anything else than ‘good news’. And I must wonder, why is nobody criticising the CO 31st Mech, even more so because the RUMINT has it that it was once again on his battalion commanders and the battered 47th Mech to stop the Russian advance from going even further…

Mariinka… local - even if sometimes ‘large’ - Russian assaults, but all without any useful results. At least not from the Russian point of view: the Ukrainians are satisfied with the high number of destroyed enemy vehicles and troops, of course.

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SOUTHERN ZAPORIZHZHYA & DNIPRO

Only minor clashes reported. The Ukrainian air defences did claim about two dozens of Russian UAVs shot down over the last few days in these two sectors, though. Between these at least four SuperCams and at least two Zalas.

….and so the War goes on…