I feel the same way and hope Kyiv will wake up before it's too late because the US and EU are not coming with the Wunder Waffen Z Man and the brass say they need to turn this around. It's do or die and up to the Ukrainians to save themselves.
First of all you changed your argument. That's fine, but first concede that your previous one was false.
Second, you still did not clearly answer the question I asked, but I see that your answer is approximately "no matter what you observe, you have no right to criticize the commanders" at which point I have to conclude that you yourself are very much infected with the Russian worldview without realizing it.
I am not saying that China is not a beneficiary but it did not promoted the start of the war. Do not exxagerate about raw materials for free, trust me, the discounts are not that painful.
The principal benefit is somewhat different: EU refused Russian Oil&Gas, shooting itself in the leg. The costs of production rose that severly that China got a new sound competitive advantage.
But it was a luck, not a Chinese "special operation".
I recall Zaluzhnyi calling for mobilization or some sort of mobilization in 2023 and he was sacked for not being positive. All the reports I see from the frontline point to manpower being the biggest challenge and then military equipment. How come a country in an existential crisis cannot get enough men and women to the frontlines? We've seen countries with much smaller populations do this. Maybe the problem in part lies with internal mismanagement?
There is a large majority of Ukrainians who don't want this war.
Zelenski ran for president by promising peace and accomodation with Russia and he got 70% percent of the vote. He was quickly rebuked by Azov and now he îs a war hero.
The reality didn't change and some 40-50% of Ukrainian population doesn't want blood and guts. They are not very visible because everything can be treated as treason and oposition to government is contantly supressed.
The government on the other hand can not mobilise the 40-50% for the military or war economy because they are pasive resistant. That leads to all kind of delays and half measures.
The government should have acknowledged these people and choosen a limited victory with negotiations instead of maximal victory with Russian collapse. These people have no desire to fight to death or starve for Crimea. They would take sacrifices for Kiev or Zaporoshia but not Luhansk and Donetsk.
Unfortunately you cannot negotiate anything with Russia or any existential threat and those who think they can sacrifice Luhansk for Kyiv will end up fighting for Kyiv and Zaprorizhzhia anyway. The people who vehemently dont want to fight can stay back and work in production. The key is to remove this dual false reality where there are those that are fighting on the front and those that are at home. You do this by making everyone a participant say in military production, planning, etc. Especially in this day and age of data, there are so many roles that Ukrainians not on the front line can do. It could be data annotation for training AI models, soldering circuit boards, etc. So far these things are done through volunteering which is good but more should be done to make this a way of life such that there isnt a distinction between those on the frontline and those not. Otherwise those who are not on the frontline will meet the same fate.
I didnt say forced labour or forced mobilization, that makes no sense. I said making state initiatives to have everyone involved and transition away from a peace time economy.
You can't send everyone to the front or to the factories, after all, life has to go on outside the war zones. In addition, Ukraine doesn't have enough money to employ so many people in war production for the state.
And if 50% don't want the war, then you can't force them to work for the war. Otherwise, they will leave the country. And that means tax revenue and workers in other important areas are lost.
We no longer live in the 1940s, when you could perhaps mobilize the entire population. The Ukrainians live in a relatively free country, so it's pretty difficult to force people to do anything. You would have to seal off the country and forbid everyone from fleeing to another country.
If you live in a peaceful country, it's pretty easy to say that everyone should support the war. But try telling that to someone who lives in a country where there is a war. I don't think they would give anything to die just to save their country. Not in a free world.
My friend I grew up in a country that had just come out of a genocide(where North Koreans were present), civil war and African world war before I left for the US. There are similarities between those conflicts and whats happening in Ukraine in a lot of ways than you can imagine. I agree with you its not easy. And the government doesnt have to nor can it send everyone to the front line or the factories. It just has to make the conditions that everyone is participating in the struggle and there is no dual reality of a war on the frontline and peace elsewhere. Thats whats called a people's struggle. Yes dont send 18-25 year olds to the front but have state resources directed to getting them organized or participating in initiatives that can make them contributors to the war away from the front. Could be analyzing drone footage, working in factories part time, apprenticeships for drone manufacturing and software development. You need to change the psyche of the population. In my language they call it Siasa or Poko poko. Ukraine is facing an existential war against an enemy with more resources. It needs all hands on deck in a people's struggle. Ukraine's bottom up culture has done this to some extent already which is good but there needs to be more of this.
I have no role în Ukrainian society but I can see some signs from the distance:
- no elections
- closed borders
- no opposition party for Russian speaking people
This are signs that the government doesn't trust the population.
The population also doesn't trust the government. Babushkas curse and berate the military recruiters, not the shirking civilians. Local police and local administration has no collaboration with the military
You are moving the goalposts. Anyway, the fact that you bunch up Russian speaking people as necessarily in opposition is enough to disqualify you from having an opinion.
The fact that Ukraine chose maximal victory with Russian collapse, as a country which is inferior to Russia in every imaginable way even with all western support, makes it clear as day that’s this is NATO’s proxy war to weaken Russia, and anyone who denies this is working against Ukraine and its interests.
Hahaha. One Nazi Germany with 3 million battle hardened soldiers and thousands of best aircraft, tanks and artillery couldn’t defeat Russia (Soviet Union) and you expect Ukraine which strugles with manpower and artillery shells to destroy it?!? Good luck with that.
- USSR would lose WWII if not filled with land lease
- Even filled with Landlease, USSR would fall, if it let fighting Germany alone. Since 1943 70% of german aviation was busy with UK/US threats. German production of U-boats took more resources than production of tanks. All german fleet was busy with UK/USA, USSR enjoyed very piecefull waters. And so much more...
Ukraine has its choices even în a proxy war. I would say that Zelenski has gone farther than US goals on his own iniative. Even Poland is more cautios. Only UK matches this victory plan.
Easy... Ordinary people don't want to risk their life and health when there's a way out. It doesn't mean they don't want Ukraine to win. No, they may donate, help in other means... But no one wants that some idiot-general like Sodol through you on the other bank of the Dnieper River to hold without support, supplies, treatment and a possibility to evacuate even if you are seriously wounded. Noone wants to get captured by russians and spend years in captivity with constant tortures and humiliation. Ukrainian commanders, unfortunately, did a lot to repel anyone from the ZSU. Only the bravest (or careless) still volunteer to join.
I see, I hear Sternenko echoing this as well, that there needs to be serious reforms in the command of the Ukrainian military. The most important thing is to end the mismanagement of human resources actually. A lot of which Tom has been pointing out in recent writings.
I assume you mean yourself. Please send your CV to Zelensky. Who knows, you might get the job. You seem to have very strong skills in distracting from the issues so should be a good fit..
The solution is indeed simple. Remove the old guards. Put the most effective brigade commanders in their places. War is not a rocket science. At the end, it is just the same management with a few special nuances.
It can. I'm telling you this for sure. Good military leadership is a serious multiplicator. I think the reverse statement is more true, than yours: "no fighters and weapons can replace inadequate management".
Besides, "lack of fighters" is a motivational issue, not a physical one. Prior to full-scale invasion, there were >10 million of males in the right age. At max 0.5M are out due to KIA and WIA, maybe ~1M left on occupied territories, ~2M left the country, let's assume another 2M has serious health issues... It's still 4.5 M recruits, and these are only males...
Lots of people are demotivated by ZSU commanders (not all, but many). Particularly their incompetence, no care about soldier life and health, overall lack of freedom, etc. Good commanders will change this situation dramatically.
You would imagine that the top brass in Ukraine would be able to join the dots and work out why this is happening?
In addition after 10 years of war (low level and then invasion) surely there has to be people in the Ukrainian military that have gained enough experience, shown their ability, been promoted etc to retire some of the dimwits which are currently running the show?
Is the West's strategy in terms of improving the Ukrainian leadership to focus on training special forces (there were UK had Special Boat and SAS in Ukraine plus French speacial forces in the early part of the war) and hope they take their knowledge and confidence when they eventually move to mainstream units?
The whole thing will decend into a rout if Ukraine is not careful. The Ukrainian military is like a football team that has lost every game in the season and thus has a looser's mindset and expects to all future matches.
I would 're-work' the last statement into: like a football team that has lost something like 4-6, but is still doing its best to reach the playoffs with help of a wild card - while its coaching team simply can't care less so much, it's absent from games.
Was expecting something like this to happen eventually; the Russian's are incompetent yes, but they aren't incapable of learning from their mistakes. Meanwhile, the West has kept up this 'boiling frog' strategy for so long with trickling aid in and folding faster than a house of cards at Putin's escalations that we're now at this point.
Actually, such a book of analysis of mistakes may be really valuable, and may even become popular with the US force as they prepare themselves to counter China in Taiwan.
I am sure that Kamala is going to "win" what passes for elections these days. But oh boy, if she doesn't, Ukraine is in big trouble. Zelensky running around Pennsylvania as a propaganda tool for the Democratic party did NOT go unnoticed by white Americans. If Trump wins along with Republican gains in seats, Ukraine won't see another dime.
I left the USA more than two years ago and didn't bother with trying to vote. On one hand, Trump is probably less likely to sleepwalk us into a nuclear war, but his first term illustrated that he's ineffective and lazy. Any good he does will be reversed on day 1 of a democrat taking office, just like the first time. And let's be honest, Trump had his share of fuckups too. Pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal was a disaster and partially contributed to the mess that's happening now. So to be honest, I don't think it matters THAT much who wins.
Putin endorsed Harris, though I'm pretty sure that was trolling.
None of the leaders you listed - to my knowledge at least - have traveled to the USA and directly participated in campaign events. Though incidentally, earlier this month, the Labour party was caught making posts on social media organizing trips to the US to campaign for Democrats - which is explicitly illegal under American law.
So you wanted Zelensky not to go to Pennsylvania because the Republicans who delayed military aid to his country could be happy? And you dont speak for most white Americans. Most white Americans vote democrat anyway.
I didn't say what I want or don't want. I AM saying his trip was noticed by Republican voters and they didn't appreciate it. Why should Republicans support Zelensky after he openly campaigned for their enemies?
Even if Harris wins the election, if the Congress has a republican majority it'll be really difficult to supply Ukraine with lots of weapons and munitions.
Remember how the Congress blocked for six months the US help to Ukraine, precipitating the fall of Avdiivka (and the consequences)
With a 'note': he's talking about Selydovo and Vyshneve: I'm talking about the situation 20km further south.
So, if the Russians punched through at Vyshneve as well... then... sigh... then all of south-eastern Donetsk is lost, and the ZSU better withdraw - and that quickly.
Surovikhin did an excellent job preparing defense positions when he was in charge. These deep minefields blunted the Ukrainian counterattack, leading to a failure
Do you know who this General Marchenko is? This is Poroshenko's man. He was tried for embezzlement of 100 million hryvnias. Marchenko, together with a pseudo-volunteer from Poroshenko on the state salary and a swindler Yuriy Biryukov, stole money from the military budget.
When Marchenko was released from the courtroom on bail and by the order of then President Poroshenko, the first thing he said to journalists when Poroshenko himself called him at that moment, he said the phrase "father is calling."
The pseudo-volunteer Biryukov himself and his biography testify to the fact that he is an old swindler who created schemes and robbed people all his life. Until 2014, a bunch of criminal cases were opened against him for fraud. During the revolution, Biryukov started working for the looting team of the Jew Poroshenko and became a personal volunteer for his boss. His task was to create the impression that some changes and PR are taking place in the army and to praise the person of Poroshenko. In reality, this entire Waltzman/Poroshenko marauding team planned and implemented corruption schemes worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Biryukov's biography before he became Poroshenko's personal volunteer.
I would say that not only his past, but also his present is not very bright. Have you ever heard such a proverb: “The grave will straighten the hunchback”? Since all these criminal thieves in power are absolutely stupid and absolutely arrogant, they realize reality only when their marauding skins are stuffed with bullets. Is this clear? Something tells me that the body of such marauders as Klitschko and others like him in Ukrainian politics does not have enough iron in the body. This is roughly how I see “zero tolerance for looters and corruption.”
If I can rant a bit in your mood. Cheer you up was oh so yesterday ;) The U.S. oligarchs are pulling all the stops out to get Harris elected. She is NO Margaret Thatcher. She is the definition of a figure-head. There's no hard decision she won't leave to idiots is my prediction. I'm no booster for chauvinism but there are some realities. Part of Putin's anger (and those around him) was having to negotiate with a young comedian on their turf. Again, not agreeing with it. What will they make of Harris? Part of Putin's gambit has paid off for him. The U.S. and Europe won't fight themselves. Harris won't be the one to change that.
I've often wondered if Ukraine should have started negotiations with Russia. Get the U.S. to commit one way or the other. REALLY commit. Same for Europe.
I don't see why Generals come and go but Zelensky stays. Ukraine needs a mean SOB at the moment. Payment up front Mfers! Zelensky did a great job in the beginning. Ukraine needs new management. If only to deal with the coming new management in the U.S. which doesn't look good.
Russia is fighting a war of extermination, the concessions they want is only those that make their military aims easier. This war has a history, there were enough negotiations and agreements to learn the lesson: trusting Russians then fighting them is worse then just fighting them. Maybe the best Ukraine can do is be the bone stuck in Russian throat that finally kills it, but even that is better than being chewed up and swallowed without a trace.
Agree, but I didn't mean Ukraine should trust Russia. The question is how can Ukraine get what it needs to push Russia out? The U.S. and Europe have been trying to defeat Russia on the cheap since the beginning. I believe certain aspects are working. In the meantime, how does Ukraine get more?
UA government isn't managing the internal resources well. For a while now the approaching election put the topic of assistance on cruise mode, so there was time to focus on the internal changes, I don't see any evidence that even crossed the mind of anyone in UA MoD, military or lawmakers. Now we need wait for the outcome of the election (and I mean not just who wins but also what happens immediately after), then see what the options are. Hard to even think of suggestions when so much is in the air.
One of the reasons Zelensky stays (and will keep staying) is because people who wrote our glorious Constitution back in 1996 never really thought that Ukraine is going to fight in a war ever again (not in their lifetime, anyway, so who cares), not to mention a years-long war. As a result, they wrote something that pretty much says that whoever was the President when the war started, will have his term extended automatically until the war ends (the actual terms are a bit different, but that's the essence). And nobody around here's got the nerve to seriously challenge that one aspect of the Constitution during a war (which is also impossible to change legally for the very same reason: because any changes are directly forbidden "until after the war"). So, there's basically no "end of term" for Zelensky and no legal way to hold any re-elections either. If something happened to him, we'd just get Rada's speaker to stand in as a "default replacement" (like Turchinov after Yanukovich fled), and probably no re-elections either...
That sucks. Ukraine needs a real wartime leader. Zelensky did a great job in the beginning but maybe now it requires someone like Zaluzhnyi. Someone who's ready to admit where he went wrong and work on fixing it. The question of who and how this can happen is tough
People in Zaluzhny's Genshtab lost the south of the country in a week and were gifting each other grenades from German assistance and are also the same people who serve there now anyway. His best moments were when the comms were intermittent and he said "act according to situation". Fuck Zaluzhny.
I understand Zaluzhnyi was overall military commander but If anything this collapse in the East shows that although Zaluzhnyi was fired, the people factually responsible for the collapse of the South were not and are still messing up. I could be wrong and you can elaborate further but to me its not entirely fair that all that blame be placed on Zaluzhnyi..yet the one who was commander of land forces Syrskyi is now seemingly bungling up one of the war fronts.
Yes, the one and only responsibility of Zaluzhny and now Sirsky was to put the right people in place under them. Neither did that, neither even tried doing it. So yeah, they both failed thoroughly. I would never say anything is entirely the fault of just one guy or another, I'm not into scapegoating, but I see no reason to think Zaluzhny would do well in anything at all.
Does he really think he's more useful as an ambassador to a country those language he doesn't speak (and any other candidate absolutely would) than commanding a unit back home? What the fuck.
"But I see no reason to think Zaluzhny would do well in anything at all."
Well for me it was his writing going against Zelensky to say the war was not going well and there needed to be serious changes including mobilization. This cost him his job and its a key pointer that he could have been against a lot of other decisions that turned out wrong. That was a key pointer for me along with his writing on the emphasis of Ukrainian technological development. All of which have turned out to be quite accurate.
I havent seen any such lucid self critical, honest takes from Zelensky nor Syrskyi about the challenges on the frontline. None of these men are perfect but it requires someone who breaks from bad habits and doesnt lie to themselves. Out of the 3 thus far Zaluzhnyi seems to fit that mold but I could be wrong.
I think not being in a state of delusion is very important especially if you've been winning, the trend could be going against you without realizing.
1. He was the first Ukrainian general, who said that if russia attacks, we will fight back. All his predecessors simply denied this and said "you understand, we cannot fight russia".
2. He treated people as human beings. Spoken with them, not just gave orders. Which is super important in the post-soviet military.
But that's all.
-his people management seems like removed those, who were simply lazy to run the war, but he did nothing to remove incompetent butchers like Sodol.
- he did nothing to make high level commanders accountable for their incompetence that caused many unnecessary losses
- he somehow had enough time to complete his PhD during the war. Not super important for the victory, imo.
So, I'd say he maybe was the best choice from the generals at that time, but he's nor a great tactitian/strategist, nor reformer. ZSU didn't suffer too much when he was dismissed.
To be honest, I wouldn't say Zelensky did that great of a job at any point in time. It's just that his acting skills and simple willingness to stay and do that job were enough to seriously impress "everyone in the West and their dogs" at the beginning of the invasion, especially when they had characters like Ghani for comparison. I'm sure I'm not the only Ukrainian skeptical of his sudden "superhero image", but as long as it worked for those in position to give (or at least pledge) critical aid, Zelensky was a "useful" wartime leader to have. By now, though, it sounds like his charms finally wore off - so, if even "the West" clearly doesn't take him seriously any longer, then it's really time for a change IMO... It's just that we don't really have a good way to bring it about (nor any good replacements in mind). I'm sure there are workarounds for the constitutional issues (there always are), but all of them start with Zelensky's own willful cooperation as a prerequisite. :)
I don't think it's lack of foresight at all. On the contrary, it's very normal rule of democratic countries, to not have elections while fighting war for their independence. Just the thought of a political campaign right now in the middle of the war makes me chill. If you think the current strategy is wrong because it's aimed to please popular opinion, it would be 100 times worse.
US had elections în WW2, France and UK had many government changes în WW1.
There is nothing dangerous în elections during war. It can actually make the people more active and mobilised. They can remove deadwood from politics - thd ones who protect corruption on recruitment. The government will get a new motivation to clean the top military grades.
Well, US didn't have any of its territory occupied in WW2. Holding national elections without Crimea and "some districts of two oblasts" was bad enough, holding them without several oblasts is even worse and would also require some extra dedicated legislation...
Yes. But, instead of a responsible governance, we seem to be hopelessly stuck with a leader who officially promised not to run for a second term as part of his presidential agitation in 2019, but suddenly found himself with an indefinite first term...
Well, we do have a history of forcing leaders who've overstayed their welcome to get the hell out, but repeating THAT exercise during a war of independence isn't something any sane person would seriously consider. Not yet, anyway...
Zelensky's stated reason why he's dragging his feet on this is that 1) there's no money for this 2) people in the trenches would be unable to vote. "We'll do it as soon as people in the army are free to vote" is more or less his statement. This might be a little out of date as he's moving towards possibility of elections at least in rhetoric.
So you claim that martial law regulations in all countries around the globe are all an effect of a mistake and the fact people writing them didn't expect war?
You have also conveniently forgotten UK delaying elections during WW2.
Im not arguing if Ukrainian regulations are good or bad, but they are not very unique in the world or some random mistake.
Marțial law is useful only at the beginning of a war, to set quick responses and allow institutions to be populated with people. They should be removed after max 6 months or 1 year.
We can think of South Korea which is teoretically at war for 70 years and should have had no elections. Israel also had all kind of frozen conflicte and should have stayed în full censorship and no elections.
Re-election? And who should be put in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from this entire pleiades of idiots to lead the country? Maybe this stinking Jewish marauder Valtzman/Poroshenko, who robbed the country for five years during his tenure with Firtash and Akhmetov? The problem is generally in the system itself. She is completely incompetent, completely cynical, incompetent and marauding. The oligarchy is afraid of disloyal people. It is for this reason that they will not allow their puppet Zelensky to replace the idiot Syrsky, for example, with the commanders of Azov. The oligarchy is afraid to give a piece of power to disloyal persons. The oligarchs don't care how many Ukrainians will die under the command of the degenerate Syrskyi. In the worst case, when everything goes badly, the oligarchy will always be able to get along with Putin at the expense of the Ukrainians. I believe that Ukrainians lost their opportunity to destroy this marauding system back in 2014, when the oligarchy led by Poroshenko managed to deceive the protesters, took advantage of popular discontent and arbitrarily led the protest at the expense of the controlled media. It was based on the principle "if you can't win, then take the lead." As a result of NINE years from 2014 to 2022 of looting and criminal inactivity of the system, we, Ukrainians, found ourselves in a situation of complete helplessness. We have neither the time nor the tools to fight. And the system at this time steals money and incompetently destroys the Ukrainian army. I consider this a genocide of the Ukrainian people. The Russians do this openly and it is obvious, but the Ukrainian oligarchy has created favorable conditions for this.
«And no, I'm not getting into Z vs P holywars, least of all here» – I'm not going to do that here either, because I hate them both equally. In general, I think that being a fan of some president or politician is idiocy and fanaticism.
Your question itself is a joke. Why? Because the idiot Klitschko does not understand anything about politics. He is a complete zero. Klitschko collaborates with the clan of Dmitry Firtash and his business partner Sergei Levochkin. Klitschko also works very actively in the interests of Poroshenko. It is thanks to these oligarchic and criminal connections that Klitschko is the mayor of Kyiv. Have you seen what crap this idiot Klitschko has turned the capital of Ukraine into over all these years? The dirtiest city with terrible infrastructure. Klitschko is a pathetic, corrupt official, deeply involved in crime and criminal connections.
Also, even regardless of what his intelligence and professional qualities might be, he's simply not a national-level politician anymore (not that he ever was one, really). Since he became the Kyiv mayor, I don't remember him even throwing a glance towards anything more ambitious. Corrupt or not, he's definitely content to just stay where he is. And, as an "anti-bonus" for a lot of potential electorate, after all these years he still speaks Ukrainian with a pretty strong accent (not Azarov style, thankfully, but hard not to notice), however irrelevant that might seem.
I'm not from Ukraine, hence my question. I didn't know that he was so corrupt and unpopular. I always thought he was a good mayor who many people supported.
But OK, that's how you can be wrong about a person
What difference does it make to me what language this thief speaks if he steals and takes away the future from Ukrainians? He and thieves like him are depriving Ukrainian children of opportunities, for example, good medicine or a good education. This bastard started out in crime as some kind of bouncer working for the raiders of the crime bosses until he was noticed. Then they pushed him into big sports. Now Klitschko, thanks to his career as an athlete, has become a puppet and business partner of some oligarchic clans, also closely connected with the criminal world. By the way, one of these clans is the clan of Poroshenko and Firtash. Poroshenko was in the “Party of Regions”, and Firtash generally built his entire business thanks to connections with the FSB.
Are you talking about ambition? Klitschko was put in charge of the capital only so that thanks to this it would be convenient for the oligarchy and crime to settle their dirty affairs. All things considered, I don't care what language this marauding criminal scum speaks. I don’t care what he speaks: Ukrainian, Russian or Hindi. The fact remains: he is a cynical, arrogant thief and a rare bastard. No, not even that, because an ordinary thief steals out of necessity, and what kind of necessity forces people like Klitschko and Poroshenko to rob those who are fighting for their lives or dying is personally unclear to me. In my understanding, they are real corpse eaters, because they feed on human suffering and make a fortune for themselves through the death of others. As for the corruption of Klitschko and those for whom he works, you, apparently, have been sleeping for the last 10 years or have not lived at all in Ukraine. Search Google for information about corruption scandals over the past 10 years involving Klitschko or all of his deputies.
Constitution written by idiots,yea sure. It is so easy to elect new president while part of the country occupied and another part can catch literal bombs on election sites. And OF COURSE there is bunch of good candidates who will do much better. I'm so tired of this theorycraft
I never said they were idiots. I said they didn't expect another war in their lifetime. Did you? Did anyone in 1996? Especially a war with Russia? Not to mention one that wouldn't end as quickly as Pudding & Co still expected it to end in 2022?
As for candidates - every modern national election starts with them proposing themselves as such. And, obviously, they simply won't do that as long as that's illegal / irrelevant / не на часі. We can't elect someone from no-one, but just announce that elections are coming and you'll be surprised...
I'm not really concerned about territorial losses or gains: based on the counterattack of 2023 summer it should be clear that Ukraine won't get those lands back by frontal attacks anyway.
On the other hand, by the actual numbers not Russia but even China would not be enough to win this.
So as long as the 'DailyRussianDead' remains high enough and climbin' it's good.
Where it goes sour is:
"...means a loss of more than 300 Ukrainian troops killed, captured, or missing in action..."
There was a theory that they should take Slovyansk and Kramatorsk first and only then try proceeding to Zaporizhia and Dnipro. The question is, if this is not the case, how many time they will need to approach these cities to within artillery fire range
There may be one UA political and strategical success - rumors are Ukraine is negotiating with Russia about stopping attacks on energy sector, i.e. Russians would stop attacking power plants, Ukraine stops attacking fuel storage. (That's why we do not see burning oil tanks in Russia recently.)
A good leader or general play with the cards they have, not the one they wish they have.
I feel the same way and hope Kyiv will wake up before it's too late because the US and EU are not coming with the Wunder Waffen Z Man and the brass say they need to turn this around. It's do or die and up to the Ukrainians to save themselves.
Simple question: what would it take for you to consider some commander an idiot? Cause it sure looks like that they're beyond criticism in your book.
But somehow you seem to do just fine criticizing others where you have even less influence. You sir are a hypocrite.
And also you didn't answer the simple question.
First of all you changed your argument. That's fine, but first concede that your previous one was false.
Second, you still did not clearly answer the question I asked, but I see that your answer is approximately "no matter what you observe, you have no right to criticize the commanders" at which point I have to conclude that you yourself are very much infected with the Russian worldview without realizing it.
I like your style though you overestimate Chinese influence.))))
I am not saying that China is not a beneficiary but it did not promoted the start of the war. Do not exxagerate about raw materials for free, trust me, the discounts are not that painful.
The principal benefit is somewhat different: EU refused Russian Oil&Gas, shooting itself in the leg. The costs of production rose that severly that China got a new sound competitive advantage.
But it was a luck, not a Chinese "special operation".
It's because of ideas like these we ended up here. The very idea that the problem is somewhere out is the problem itself.
I recall Zaluzhnyi calling for mobilization or some sort of mobilization in 2023 and he was sacked for not being positive. All the reports I see from the frontline point to manpower being the biggest challenge and then military equipment. How come a country in an existential crisis cannot get enough men and women to the frontlines? We've seen countries with much smaller populations do this. Maybe the problem in part lies with internal mismanagement?
There is a large majority of Ukrainians who don't want this war.
Zelenski ran for president by promising peace and accomodation with Russia and he got 70% percent of the vote. He was quickly rebuked by Azov and now he îs a war hero.
The reality didn't change and some 40-50% of Ukrainian population doesn't want blood and guts. They are not very visible because everything can be treated as treason and oposition to government is contantly supressed.
The government on the other hand can not mobilise the 40-50% for the military or war economy because they are pasive resistant. That leads to all kind of delays and half measures.
The government should have acknowledged these people and choosen a limited victory with negotiations instead of maximal victory with Russian collapse. These people have no desire to fight to death or starve for Crimea. They would take sacrifices for Kiev or Zaporoshia but not Luhansk and Donetsk.
Unfortunately you cannot negotiate anything with Russia or any existential threat and those who think they can sacrifice Luhansk for Kyiv will end up fighting for Kyiv and Zaprorizhzhia anyway. The people who vehemently dont want to fight can stay back and work in production. The key is to remove this dual false reality where there are those that are fighting on the front and those that are at home. You do this by making everyone a participant say in military production, planning, etc. Especially in this day and age of data, there are so many roles that Ukrainians not on the front line can do. It could be data annotation for training AI models, soldering circuit boards, etc. So far these things are done through volunteering which is good but more should be done to make this a way of life such that there isnt a distinction between those on the frontline and those not. Otherwise those who are not on the frontline will meet the same fate.
I didnt say forced labour or forced mobilization, that makes no sense. I said making state initiatives to have everyone involved and transition away from a peace time economy.
You can't send everyone to the front or to the factories, after all, life has to go on outside the war zones. In addition, Ukraine doesn't have enough money to employ so many people in war production for the state.
And if 50% don't want the war, then you can't force them to work for the war. Otherwise, they will leave the country. And that means tax revenue and workers in other important areas are lost.
We no longer live in the 1940s, when you could perhaps mobilize the entire population. The Ukrainians live in a relatively free country, so it's pretty difficult to force people to do anything. You would have to seal off the country and forbid everyone from fleeing to another country.
If you live in a peaceful country, it's pretty easy to say that everyone should support the war. But try telling that to someone who lives in a country where there is a war. I don't think they would give anything to die just to save their country. Not in a free world.
My friend I grew up in a country that had just come out of a genocide(where North Koreans were present), civil war and African world war before I left for the US. There are similarities between those conflicts and whats happening in Ukraine in a lot of ways than you can imagine. I agree with you its not easy. And the government doesnt have to nor can it send everyone to the front line or the factories. It just has to make the conditions that everyone is participating in the struggle and there is no dual reality of a war on the frontline and peace elsewhere. Thats whats called a people's struggle. Yes dont send 18-25 year olds to the front but have state resources directed to getting them organized or participating in initiatives that can make them contributors to the war away from the front. Could be analyzing drone footage, working in factories part time, apprenticeships for drone manufacturing and software development. You need to change the psyche of the population. In my language they call it Siasa or Poko poko. Ukraine is facing an existential war against an enemy with more resources. It needs all hands on deck in a people's struggle. Ukraine's bottom up culture has done this to some extent already which is good but there needs to be more of this.
Oh, so Ukrainians are so afraid it fell upon you to speak for them? Do you honestly believe that? Not to mention the rest of your "history lesson"
I have no role în Ukrainian society but I can see some signs from the distance:
- no elections
- closed borders
- no opposition party for Russian speaking people
This are signs that the government doesn't trust the population.
The population also doesn't trust the government. Babushkas curse and berate the military recruiters, not the shirking civilians. Local police and local administration has no collaboration with the military
You are moving the goalposts. Anyway, the fact that you bunch up Russian speaking people as necessarily in opposition is enough to disqualify you from having an opinion.
The Russian language and Russian memorie is slowly supressed în Ukraine.
This means there is a political need for a party of Russian speakers and that it will be în oposition to curent government.
The fact that Ukraine chose maximal victory with Russian collapse, as a country which is inferior to Russia in every imaginable way even with all western support, makes it clear as day that’s this is NATO’s proxy war to weaken Russia, and anyone who denies this is working against Ukraine and its interests.
Hahaha. One Nazi Germany with 3 million battle hardened soldiers and thousands of best aircraft, tanks and artillery couldn’t defeat Russia (Soviet Union) and you expect Ukraine which strugles with manpower and artillery shells to destroy it?!? Good luck with that.
Foul comparison that negate too many facts.
- modern day russia is not USSR. By all aspects.
- USSR would lose WWII if not filled with land lease
- Even filled with Landlease, USSR would fall, if it let fighting Germany alone. Since 1943 70% of german aviation was busy with UK/US threats. German production of U-boats took more resources than production of tanks. All german fleet was busy with UK/USA, USSR enjoyed very piecefull waters. And so much more...
Ukraine has its choices even în a proxy war. I would say that Zelenski has gone farther than US goals on his own iniative. Even Poland is more cautios. Only UK matches this victory plan.
Easy... Ordinary people don't want to risk their life and health when there's a way out. It doesn't mean they don't want Ukraine to win. No, they may donate, help in other means... But no one wants that some idiot-general like Sodol through you on the other bank of the Dnieper River to hold without support, supplies, treatment and a possibility to evacuate even if you are seriously wounded. Noone wants to get captured by russians and spend years in captivity with constant tortures and humiliation. Ukrainian commanders, unfortunately, did a lot to repel anyone from the ZSU. Only the bravest (or careless) still volunteer to join.
I see, I hear Sternenko echoing this as well, that there needs to be serious reforms in the command of the Ukrainian military. The most important thing is to end the mismanagement of human resources actually. A lot of which Tom has been pointing out in recent writings.
It seems it's high time to sack the General of Great News and get a new C-in-C with a new team, before it's too late.
I assume you mean yourself. Please send your CV to Zelensky. Who knows, you might get the job. You seem to have very strong skills in distracting from the issues so should be a good fit..
The solution is indeed simple. Remove the old guards. Put the most effective brigade commanders in their places. War is not a rocket science. At the end, it is just the same management with a few special nuances.
Then why are you still here following his blog?
It can. I'm telling you this for sure. Good military leadership is a serious multiplicator. I think the reverse statement is more true, than yours: "no fighters and weapons can replace inadequate management".
Besides, "lack of fighters" is a motivational issue, not a physical one. Prior to full-scale invasion, there were >10 million of males in the right age. At max 0.5M are out due to KIA and WIA, maybe ~1M left on occupied territories, ~2M left the country, let's assume another 2M has serious health issues... It's still 4.5 M recruits, and these are only males...
Lots of people are demotivated by ZSU commanders (not all, but many). Particularly their incompetence, no care about soldier life and health, overall lack of freedom, etc. Good commanders will change this situation dramatically.
We’ll wait eagerly for the book 😃
So basically you are telling us, that only a flood like in Spain can stop the Russians reaching their objective.
Like in Spain, or like in the Moshchun area of mid-March 2022...
Where is Rasputiza when you need it...
Stolen by the global warming
According to the current weather forecast this can be true
Most of the fighting is în Donbass which is hugely urbanised.
There is a hard surfaced road every 5 km în any direction.
Soldiers might struggle în the mud but they will be well fed, armed and easily relocated from one sector to the other.
Look at the map we're they are currently fighting. There is plenty of fields there and this rather not about logistics, it's about attack vectors.
You would imagine that the top brass in Ukraine would be able to join the dots and work out why this is happening?
In addition after 10 years of war (low level and then invasion) surely there has to be people in the Ukrainian military that have gained enough experience, shown their ability, been promoted etc to retire some of the dimwits which are currently running the show?
Is the West's strategy in terms of improving the Ukrainian leadership to focus on training special forces (there were UK had Special Boat and SAS in Ukraine plus French speacial forces in the early part of the war) and hope they take their knowledge and confidence when they eventually move to mainstream units?
The whole thing will decend into a rout if Ukraine is not careful. The Ukrainian military is like a football team that has lost every game in the season and thus has a looser's mindset and expects to all future matches.
>> have gained enough experience, shown their ability, been promoted
- The 3 things are unrelated to each other in the real life
Там, кум, сват, брат, коханки( ці) займають не свої місця!
Може буть навіть простіше - якщо старий бачить молодого та талановитого - то це пряма загроза його посаді. Таке усюди буває.
https://realmensch.org/2017/08/25/the-parable-of-the-two-programmers/
The young in positions of any power are exactly the same. They would not let a more experienced outsider past themselves either.
I would 're-work' the last statement into: like a football team that has lost something like 4-6, but is still doing its best to reach the playoffs with help of a wild card - while its coaching team simply can't care less so much, it's absent from games.
Goddamn, this could very well turn out into the first operational level breakthrough since Popasna
Was expecting something like this to happen eventually; the Russian's are incompetent yes, but they aren't incapable of learning from their mistakes. Meanwhile, the West has kept up this 'boiling frog' strategy for so long with trickling aid in and folding faster than a house of cards at Putin's escalations that we're now at this point.
You have to include the issues that are totally within Ukraine's control.
And that's the infuriating part.
Like watching a slow motion car collision
Actually, such a book of analysis of mistakes may be really valuable, and may even become popular with the US force as they prepare themselves to counter China in Taiwan.
Soldiers and technology are exactly the means of victory for Afghanistan against USSR and USA.
I am sure that Kamala is going to "win" what passes for elections these days. But oh boy, if she doesn't, Ukraine is in big trouble. Zelensky running around Pennsylvania as a propaganda tool for the Democratic party did NOT go unnoticed by white Americans. If Trump wins along with Republican gains in seats, Ukraine won't see another dime.
Yeah, "white Americans" will not stand anyone "running around Pennsylvania". You're a disgrace.
Anyone who supports foreign leaders openly campaigning for a US candidate is a disgrace. How could you possibly argue otherwise?
You're mentally ill.
Great comeback💪
It was not considered a good look, regardless of the intentions. Out of interest, may I ask which way you're leaning for the vote?
I left the USA more than two years ago and didn't bother with trying to vote. On one hand, Trump is probably less likely to sleepwalk us into a nuclear war, but his first term illustrated that he's ineffective and lazy. Any good he does will be reversed on day 1 of a democrat taking office, just like the first time. And let's be honest, Trump had his share of fuckups too. Pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal was a disaster and partially contributed to the mess that's happening now. So to be honest, I don't think it matters THAT much who wins.
Putin support for Trump is somehow not a problem for the same people.
Putin endorsed Kamala, though that was probably trolling. No real country cares which candidate wins. Only the puppet states and vassals care.
Probably? I mean, that was too obvious.
It was trolling, but the logic is sound. Who happens to be president matters little and doesn't have significant impact on US foreign policy.
"Anyone who supports foreign leaders openly campaigning for a US candidate is a disgrace."
You mean the Trump supporters like Boris Johnson, Viktor Orban, Javier Milei, Putin,?
Putin endorsed Harris, though I'm pretty sure that was trolling.
None of the leaders you listed - to my knowledge at least - have traveled to the USA and directly participated in campaign events. Though incidentally, earlier this month, the Labour party was caught making posts on social media organizing trips to the US to campaign for Democrats - which is explicitly illegal under American law.
Does giving a speech at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee count?
Sure.
So you wanted Zelensky not to go to Pennsylvania because the Republicans who delayed military aid to his country could be happy? And you dont speak for most white Americans. Most white Americans vote democrat anyway.
I didn't say what I want or don't want. I AM saying his trip was noticed by Republican voters and they didn't appreciate it. Why should Republicans support Zelensky after he openly campaigned for their enemies?
Even if Harris wins the election, if the Congress has a republican majority it'll be really difficult to supply Ukraine with lots of weapons and munitions.
Remember how the Congress blocked for six months the US help to Ukraine, precipitating the fall of Avdiivka (and the consequences)
General Marchenko The frontline in Donbass is broken:
https://tsn.ua/ato/front-na-donbasi-posipavsya-general-marchenko-poyasniv-prichinu-2689311.html
With a 'note': he's talking about Selydovo and Vyshneve: I'm talking about the situation 20km further south.
So, if the Russians punched through at Vyshneve as well... then... sigh... then all of south-eastern Donetsk is lost, and the ZSU better withdraw - and that quickly.
And no defence lines are built in rear or they are insufficient. Even Surovkin did better job.
Surovikin would have definitely been better for defence prep than anyone that was in charge in Ukraine.
Surovikhin did an excellent job preparing defense positions when he was in charge. These deep minefields blunted the Ukrainian counterattack, leading to a failure
Do you know who this General Marchenko is? This is Poroshenko's man. He was tried for embezzlement of 100 million hryvnias. Marchenko, together with a pseudo-volunteer from Poroshenko on the state salary and a swindler Yuriy Biryukov, stole money from the military budget.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.radiosvoboda.org/amp/bronezhylety-marchenka/30272326.html
When Marchenko was released from the courtroom on bail and by the order of then President Poroshenko, the first thing he said to journalists when Poroshenko himself called him at that moment, he said the phrase "father is calling."
https://youtu.be/lqJlkegt6no?si=yZDFpCmALyDOzM5d
The pseudo-volunteer Biryukov himself and his biography testify to the fact that he is an old swindler who created schemes and robbed people all his life. Until 2014, a bunch of criminal cases were opened against him for fraud. During the revolution, Biryukov started working for the looting team of the Jew Poroshenko and became a personal volunteer for his boss. His task was to create the impression that some changes and PR are taking place in the army and to praise the person of Poroshenko. In reality, this entire Waltzman/Poroshenko marauding team planned and implemented corruption schemes worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
Biryukov's biography before he became Poroshenko's personal volunteer.
https://ybirukov.livejournal.com/734.html
Also, someone from Poroshenko's team spread rumors that General Marchenko personally saved Mykolaiv.
Yep, I know his past is not bright. But even the old swindler may have good assessment of battlefield situation.
I would say that not only his past, but also his present is not very bright. Have you ever heard such a proverb: “The grave will straighten the hunchback”? Since all these criminal thieves in power are absolutely stupid and absolutely arrogant, they realize reality only when their marauding skins are stuffed with bullets. Is this clear? Something tells me that the body of such marauders as Klitschko and others like him in Ukrainian politics does not have enough iron in the body. This is roughly how I see “zero tolerance for looters and corruption.”
If I can rant a bit in your mood. Cheer you up was oh so yesterday ;) The U.S. oligarchs are pulling all the stops out to get Harris elected. She is NO Margaret Thatcher. She is the definition of a figure-head. There's no hard decision she won't leave to idiots is my prediction. I'm no booster for chauvinism but there are some realities. Part of Putin's anger (and those around him) was having to negotiate with a young comedian on their turf. Again, not agreeing with it. What will they make of Harris? Part of Putin's gambit has paid off for him. The U.S. and Europe won't fight themselves. Harris won't be the one to change that.
I've often wondered if Ukraine should have started negotiations with Russia. Get the U.S. to commit one way or the other. REALLY commit. Same for Europe.
I don't see why Generals come and go but Zelensky stays. Ukraine needs a mean SOB at the moment. Payment up front Mfers! Zelensky did a great job in the beginning. Ukraine needs new management. If only to deal with the coming new management in the U.S. which doesn't look good.
"..I don't see why Generals come and go but Zelensky stays. ..."
Because a drunk chicken is still better fighter than a headless one.
Good one!
Russia is fighting a war of extermination, the concessions they want is only those that make their military aims easier. This war has a history, there were enough negotiations and agreements to learn the lesson: trusting Russians then fighting them is worse then just fighting them. Maybe the best Ukraine can do is be the bone stuck in Russian throat that finally kills it, but even that is better than being chewed up and swallowed without a trace.
Agree, but I didn't mean Ukraine should trust Russia. The question is how can Ukraine get what it needs to push Russia out? The U.S. and Europe have been trying to defeat Russia on the cheap since the beginning. I believe certain aspects are working. In the meantime, how does Ukraine get more?
UA government isn't managing the internal resources well. For a while now the approaching election put the topic of assistance on cruise mode, so there was time to focus on the internal changes, I don't see any evidence that even crossed the mind of anyone in UA MoD, military or lawmakers. Now we need wait for the outcome of the election (and I mean not just who wins but also what happens immediately after), then see what the options are. Hard to even think of suggestions when so much is in the air.
One of the reasons Zelensky stays (and will keep staying) is because people who wrote our glorious Constitution back in 1996 never really thought that Ukraine is going to fight in a war ever again (not in their lifetime, anyway, so who cares), not to mention a years-long war. As a result, they wrote something that pretty much says that whoever was the President when the war started, will have his term extended automatically until the war ends (the actual terms are a bit different, but that's the essence). And nobody around here's got the nerve to seriously challenge that one aspect of the Constitution during a war (which is also impossible to change legally for the very same reason: because any changes are directly forbidden "until after the war"). So, there's basically no "end of term" for Zelensky and no legal way to hold any re-elections either. If something happened to him, we'd just get Rada's speaker to stand in as a "default replacement" (like Turchinov after Yanukovich fled), and probably no re-elections either...
Thanks! I had asked this question to others but you're the first one that explained it! Others just said Ukrainians don't feel like voting now ;)
That sucks. Ukraine needs a real wartime leader. Zelensky did a great job in the beginning but maybe now it requires someone like Zaluzhnyi. Someone who's ready to admit where he went wrong and work on fixing it. The question of who and how this can happen is tough
People in Zaluzhny's Genshtab lost the south of the country in a week and were gifting each other grenades from German assistance and are also the same people who serve there now anyway. His best moments were when the comms were intermittent and he said "act according to situation". Fuck Zaluzhny.
I understand Zaluzhnyi was overall military commander but If anything this collapse in the East shows that although Zaluzhnyi was fired, the people factually responsible for the collapse of the South were not and are still messing up. I could be wrong and you can elaborate further but to me its not entirely fair that all that blame be placed on Zaluzhnyi..yet the one who was commander of land forces Syrskyi is now seemingly bungling up one of the war fronts.
Yes, the one and only responsibility of Zaluzhny and now Sirsky was to put the right people in place under them. Neither did that, neither even tried doing it. So yeah, they both failed thoroughly. I would never say anything is entirely the fault of just one guy or another, I'm not into scapegoating, but I see no reason to think Zaluzhny would do well in anything at all.
Does he really think he's more useful as an ambassador to a country those language he doesn't speak (and any other candidate absolutely would) than commanding a unit back home? What the fuck.
"But I see no reason to think Zaluzhny would do well in anything at all."
Well for me it was his writing going against Zelensky to say the war was not going well and there needed to be serious changes including mobilization. This cost him his job and its a key pointer that he could have been against a lot of other decisions that turned out wrong. That was a key pointer for me along with his writing on the emphasis of Ukrainian technological development. All of which have turned out to be quite accurate.
I havent seen any such lucid self critical, honest takes from Zelensky nor Syrskyi about the challenges on the frontline. None of these men are perfect but it requires someone who breaks from bad habits and doesnt lie to themselves. Out of the 3 thus far Zaluzhnyi seems to fit that mold but I could be wrong.
I think not being in a state of delusion is very important especially if you've been winning, the trend could be going against you without realizing.
To me, Zaluzhnyi had to important treats:
1. He was the first Ukrainian general, who said that if russia attacks, we will fight back. All his predecessors simply denied this and said "you understand, we cannot fight russia".
2. He treated people as human beings. Spoken with them, not just gave orders. Which is super important in the post-soviet military.
But that's all.
-his people management seems like removed those, who were simply lazy to run the war, but he did nothing to remove incompetent butchers like Sodol.
- he did nothing to make high level commanders accountable for their incompetence that caused many unnecessary losses
- he somehow had enough time to complete his PhD during the war. Not super important for the victory, imo.
So, I'd say he maybe was the best choice from the generals at that time, but he's nor a great tactitian/strategist, nor reformer. ZSU didn't suffer too much when he was dismissed.
Fair enough. There are good sides to almost everyone. However, wartime CinC is a pair of very big shoes to fill, these people just dont cut it.
To be honest, I wouldn't say Zelensky did that great of a job at any point in time. It's just that his acting skills and simple willingness to stay and do that job were enough to seriously impress "everyone in the West and their dogs" at the beginning of the invasion, especially when they had characters like Ghani for comparison. I'm sure I'm not the only Ukrainian skeptical of his sudden "superhero image", but as long as it worked for those in position to give (or at least pledge) critical aid, Zelensky was a "useful" wartime leader to have. By now, though, it sounds like his charms finally wore off - so, if even "the West" clearly doesn't take him seriously any longer, then it's really time for a change IMO... It's just that we don't really have a good way to bring it about (nor any good replacements in mind). I'm sure there are workarounds for the constitutional issues (there always are), but all of them start with Zelensky's own willful cooperation as a prerequisite. :)
Indeed, the best summary of this topic I've read so far. Thanks a lot!
I don't think it's lack of foresight at all. On the contrary, it's very normal rule of democratic countries, to not have elections while fighting war for their independence. Just the thought of a political campaign right now in the middle of the war makes me chill. If you think the current strategy is wrong because it's aimed to please popular opinion, it would be 100 times worse.
US had elections în WW2, France and UK had many government changes în WW1.
There is nothing dangerous în elections during war. It can actually make the people more active and mobilised. They can remove deadwood from politics - thd ones who protect corruption on recruitment. The government will get a new motivation to clean the top military grades.
Well, US didn't have any of its territory occupied in WW2. Holding national elections without Crimea and "some districts of two oblasts" was bad enough, holding them without several oblasts is even worse and would also require some extra dedicated legislation...
...but, that's neither 'impossible' nor 'bad'.
A responsible governance would then organise next elections, as soon as the areas in question are recovered, too.
Yes. But, instead of a responsible governance, we seem to be hopelessly stuck with a leader who officially promised not to run for a second term as part of his presidential agitation in 2019, but suddenly found himself with an indefinite first term...
Well, we do have a history of forcing leaders who've overstayed their welcome to get the hell out, but repeating THAT exercise during a war of independence isn't something any sane person would seriously consider. Not yet, anyway...
Zelensky's stated reason why he's dragging his feet on this is that 1) there's no money for this 2) people in the trenches would be unable to vote. "We'll do it as soon as people in the army are free to vote" is more or less his statement. This might be a little out of date as he's moving towards possibility of elections at least in rhetoric.
So you claim that martial law regulations in all countries around the globe are all an effect of a mistake and the fact people writing them didn't expect war?
You have also conveniently forgotten UK delaying elections during WW2.
Im not arguing if Ukrainian regulations are good or bad, but they are not very unique in the world or some random mistake.
Marțial law is useful only at the beginning of a war, to set quick responses and allow institutions to be populated with people. They should be removed after max 6 months or 1 year.
We can think of South Korea which is teoretically at war for 70 years and should have had no elections. Israel also had all kind of frozen conflicte and should have stayed în full censorship and no elections.
Re-election? And who should be put in the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from this entire pleiades of idiots to lead the country? Maybe this stinking Jewish marauder Valtzman/Poroshenko, who robbed the country for five years during his tenure with Firtash and Akhmetov? The problem is generally in the system itself. She is completely incompetent, completely cynical, incompetent and marauding. The oligarchy is afraid of disloyal people. It is for this reason that they will not allow their puppet Zelensky to replace the idiot Syrsky, for example, with the commanders of Azov. The oligarchy is afraid to give a piece of power to disloyal persons. The oligarchs don't care how many Ukrainians will die under the command of the degenerate Syrskyi. In the worst case, when everything goes badly, the oligarchy will always be able to get along with Putin at the expense of the Ukrainians. I believe that Ukrainians lost their opportunity to destroy this marauding system back in 2014, when the oligarchy led by Poroshenko managed to deceive the protesters, took advantage of popular discontent and arbitrarily led the protest at the expense of the controlled media. It was based on the principle "if you can't win, then take the lead." As a result of NINE years from 2014 to 2022 of looting and criminal inactivity of the system, we, Ukrainians, found ourselves in a situation of complete helplessness. We have neither the time nor the tools to fight. And the system at this time steals money and incompetently destroys the Ukrainian army. I consider this a genocide of the Ukrainian people. The Russians do this openly and it is obvious, but the Ukrainian oligarchy has created favorable conditions for this.
I already said that we don't have a good replacement in mind, but that doesn't mean we wouldn't find one if given a chance.
And no, I'm not getting into Z vs P holywars, least of all here.
«And no, I'm not getting into Z vs P holywars, least of all here» – I'm not going to do that here either, because I hate them both equally. In general, I think that being a fan of some president or politician is idiocy and fanaticism.
What about Klitschko...? Would he be a better president than Zelensky? The question is serious.
Your question itself is a joke. Why? Because the idiot Klitschko does not understand anything about politics. He is a complete zero. Klitschko collaborates with the clan of Dmitry Firtash and his business partner Sergei Levochkin. Klitschko also works very actively in the interests of Poroshenko. It is thanks to these oligarchic and criminal connections that Klitschko is the mayor of Kyiv. Have you seen what crap this idiot Klitschko has turned the capital of Ukraine into over all these years? The dirtiest city with terrible infrastructure. Klitschko is a pathetic, corrupt official, deeply involved in crime and criminal connections.
Also, even regardless of what his intelligence and professional qualities might be, he's simply not a national-level politician anymore (not that he ever was one, really). Since he became the Kyiv mayor, I don't remember him even throwing a glance towards anything more ambitious. Corrupt or not, he's definitely content to just stay where he is. And, as an "anti-bonus" for a lot of potential electorate, after all these years he still speaks Ukrainian with a pretty strong accent (not Azarov style, thankfully, but hard not to notice), however irrelevant that might seem.
I'm not from Ukraine, hence my question. I didn't know that he was so corrupt and unpopular. I always thought he was a good mayor who many people supported.
But OK, that's how you can be wrong about a person
What difference does it make to me what language this thief speaks if he steals and takes away the future from Ukrainians? He and thieves like him are depriving Ukrainian children of opportunities, for example, good medicine or a good education. This bastard started out in crime as some kind of bouncer working for the raiders of the crime bosses until he was noticed. Then they pushed him into big sports. Now Klitschko, thanks to his career as an athlete, has become a puppet and business partner of some oligarchic clans, also closely connected with the criminal world. By the way, one of these clans is the clan of Poroshenko and Firtash. Poroshenko was in the “Party of Regions”, and Firtash generally built his entire business thanks to connections with the FSB.
Are you talking about ambition? Klitschko was put in charge of the capital only so that thanks to this it would be convenient for the oligarchy and crime to settle their dirty affairs. All things considered, I don't care what language this marauding criminal scum speaks. I don’t care what he speaks: Ukrainian, Russian or Hindi. The fact remains: he is a cynical, arrogant thief and a rare bastard. No, not even that, because an ordinary thief steals out of necessity, and what kind of necessity forces people like Klitschko and Poroshenko to rob those who are fighting for their lives or dying is personally unclear to me. In my understanding, they are real corpse eaters, because they feed on human suffering and make a fortune for themselves through the death of others. As for the corruption of Klitschko and those for whom he works, you, apparently, have been sleeping for the last 10 years or have not lived at all in Ukraine. Search Google for information about corruption scandals over the past 10 years involving Klitschko or all of his deputies.
Constitution written by idiots,yea sure. It is so easy to elect new president while part of the country occupied and another part can catch literal bombs on election sites. And OF COURSE there is bunch of good candidates who will do much better. I'm so tired of this theorycraft
I never said they were idiots. I said they didn't expect another war in their lifetime. Did you? Did anyone in 1996? Especially a war with Russia? Not to mention one that wouldn't end as quickly as Pudding & Co still expected it to end in 2022?
As for candidates - every modern national election starts with them proposing themselves as such. And, obviously, they simply won't do that as long as that's illegal / irrelevant / не на часі. We can't elect someone from no-one, but just announce that elections are coming and you'll be surprised...
I'm not really concerned about territorial losses or gains: based on the counterattack of 2023 summer it should be clear that Ukraine won't get those lands back by frontal attacks anyway.
On the other hand, by the actual numbers not Russia but even China would not be enough to win this.
So as long as the 'DailyRussianDead' remains high enough and climbin' it's good.
Where it goes sour is:
"...means a loss of more than 300 Ukrainian troops killed, captured, or missing in action..."
That's not good.
That's bad. Very bad.
Extremely bad. Even more so .... for reasons I cannot discuss in the public...
Thanks for your work Tom. Bad week really
Thank you for the update. When do you think these fortifications could actually be used if nothing changes significantly?
There are no fortifications between Vuhledar and Dnipro. So, they first have to be constructed.
There was a theory that they should take Slovyansk and Kramatorsk first and only then try proceeding to Zaporizhia and Dnipro. The question is, if this is not the case, how many time they will need to approach these cities to within artillery fire range
There may be one UA political and strategical success - rumors are Ukraine is negotiating with Russia about stopping attacks on energy sector, i.e. Russians would stop attacking power plants, Ukraine stops attacking fuel storage. (That's why we do not see burning oil tanks in Russia recently.)