Hello everybody! During the night from 29 to 30 May, the Russians have run another strike with loitering precision guided munition (LPGM) of Iranian origin - see: foremost Shahed-136s, very few Shahed-131s (a.k.a. ‘Geran-2’ and ‘Geran-1’, respectively) - on Kyiv. Thus, would like to discuss few related points.
How can they manoeuvre? With an engine, any other guesses? Surely ruzzians have a map of buildings, their heights, the locations of the building cranes, etc.
Or you only want Tom to use "tall residential buildings" instead of "skyscrappers"?
1.) How many such Pantsirs and S-300/400 systems does Russia have and how many are in Ukraine and how many are in Russia/Moscow area? I saw an estimate somewhere 500 Pantsirs and 2000 S-300 launchers from the Soviet Union. Because it seems they have a ton of them
2.) It seemed odd to me our govt in the US was willing to send Patriots to Ukraine without at least greenlighting sending Fighters or some other airborne paltforms for ECM as well as adding a layer of protection. Seems they really have confidence in the system's ability to fend off any aerial threats and the shorad to protect it from saturation attacks with cheap drones. And also its EW capability. Wonder what you're thoughts on this are because if it wasn't for pressure from Europe Biden admin was comfortable with these Patriots operating they are without the protection of western jets.
3.) I wonder if this attack from Ukraine was aimed at probing Russia's AD network and we'll see more lethal ones as time goes on. The idea of a drone that can loiter around Moscow as it searches for AD systems seems compelling and I saw a video claiming some of the Shaheds Russia is using have this capability. I wonder if this is something we'll see the Ukrainians do at some point.
Tom, recapping from all your posts on Air Defenses, S-300 systems in use by Russia and Ukraine in the war are capable of engaging more than one threat at the same time? A single Patriot is in some way like fielding 2 or 3 S-300? Thanks!
May 31, 2023·edited May 31, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Hello Tom,
thanks once again about the insightful article. I have a few questions mostly in relation to missiles rather than LPGM. In a previous article you mentioned that Kinzhal missiles do not reach the advertised 10 mach speed at terminal phases and their maneuverability is limited. Do we know what the actual speed estimate is, and is the 10 mach achieved during mid flight? I am assuming that flak will have little luck intercepting those but can SAMs intercept something flying so fast.
Secondly Iskander is supposed to reach 5+ mach and maneuver at the terminal phase. What is usually considered the terminal phase (is it 5km, 10, 50km?), and do we have any data on if they can achieve what the Russians claim? On your last article you mentioned the Ukrainians claiming 11 out of 11 shot down, and I thought those were very difficult to hit with current systems.
Finally are the Russians exaggerating their hypersonic missile capabilities and is the whole technology a hype or with careful planning, as you mention above, it can be countered to a certain degree.
So far as I know the Kinzahl uses basically the same engine as the Iskander missile so any speed claims should be treated with caution.
The Kinzhal uses a solid-fuel rocket engine, which likely can’t be shut down or throttled in flight. Once the rocket motor has burnt out, the missile then coasts to its target. This raises significant doubts about whether the Kinzhal can actually maintain a sustained speed of Mach 10 throughout its flight.
Air resistance would slow the Kinzhal down just as it reaches the most critical, terminal stage of its attack, leaving it vulnerable to interception.
I do not know all the answers to your questions, right now - or at least don't know where to search for them (then, I do not know 'by heart' the mass of technical details I'm writing about: I know where to check or ask about them, though).
Permit a few days to check: this is definitely worth a separate feature.
Do you have any idea why Russia is attacking Kyiv at all? Sure, all this intel could theoretically lead to a hit on a piece of a western air defence system to score some propaganda points. But don't they have better things to do with their drone swarms and expensive missles?
To tie down the PSU's air defences, so these cannot be re-deployed closer to the frontline - or to protect major ammo dumps (three of which were blown up by Russian missiles in the last three weeks).
Rosneft got HISTORY MAXIMUM profit in 2022 - the result of sanctions from Hell during 9 years. Rosneft INCREASED oil production in 2023 to approx 4 M barrels/ day - and got 4+ billion $ pure profit in first quarter 2023 - thr resalt of Mega Super Hard sanctions. Western TV and blogs lied during 9 years about sanctions, lie every month, lie every day
Rosneft now pay HISTORY MAX taxes and still has huge profits. West bought russian goods on 400+ billions $ since 24 feb 2022. So Putin got 400 billions $ for war
This is the first time I have commented, so I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your work.
I just wanted to ask you if you have any idea if / how many ammunition depots the Russians have been able to destroy. I have the impression that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is stalling because of this. It also seems to me that this 'swarm' of drones is only designed to distract the Ukrainian defences and then hit the real targets, such as the ammunition depots.
My pleasure and thanks for an interesting question.
AFAIK, over the last three weeks: 3 major arms depots. And yes, I'm in agreement with you: that's ('almost certainly') the reason why the ZSU 'counteroffensive' wasn't initiated yet. They have to replace losses, first.
is your sources mean building on some "island" in Kyiv when talking about GUR HQ was hit? This place is about 3.5km from my home and it's unlikely I could miss the sound of such strike, cause I didn't sleep that night and heard a lot of different "sounds". It's also not a problem to check that place with my own eyes, if needed :)
If so, I apologise. Essentially, I've 'quoted' Klitchko's statement.
Zelensky is trying to get rid of Klichko as he is a popular independent politician. Thus he gets blamed for kinds of things these days.
How can they manoeuvre? With an engine, any other guesses? Surely ruzzians have a map of buildings, their heights, the locations of the building cranes, etc.
Or you only want Tom to use "tall residential buildings" instead of "skyscrappers"?
do well me that shakhed-geran is only capable of flying in straight line.
We can assume that ruzzians are modifing them to add more steering capability https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/10/20/russia-iran-kamikaze-drones/
Курва, та коли ти вже ся вспокоїш та подивися які саме будівлі білі люди називають хмарочосами? :)
Say no to putler's manual before making any other claims. :)
So, you just cannot read the definitions.
The same as you cannot count up from 3.
The only thing you can do is to make some new bullshit to distract yourself from your previous fuckups, isn't it? :D
Лаєтесь як справжній долинянин!
Дякую!
Дуже сподобалось!
Thanks a lot, Tom
I enjoyed reading your report. Very useful and informative. Let us hope our defenders have enough skills to protect our cities. Glory to Ukraine!
Please stop telling us what you do not know, I am sure that would fill too many pages :)
Maybe you just have not looked at the proper direction. Or maybe you just are fond of contradicting anybody.
As always, sane, factual and informative!
Great write up. Just some questions
1.) How many such Pantsirs and S-300/400 systems does Russia have and how many are in Ukraine and how many are in Russia/Moscow area? I saw an estimate somewhere 500 Pantsirs and 2000 S-300 launchers from the Soviet Union. Because it seems they have a ton of them
2.) It seemed odd to me our govt in the US was willing to send Patriots to Ukraine without at least greenlighting sending Fighters or some other airborne paltforms for ECM as well as adding a layer of protection. Seems they really have confidence in the system's ability to fend off any aerial threats and the shorad to protect it from saturation attacks with cheap drones. And also its EW capability. Wonder what you're thoughts on this are because if it wasn't for pressure from Europe Biden admin was comfortable with these Patriots operating they are without the protection of western jets.
3.) I wonder if this attack from Ukraine was aimed at probing Russia's AD network and we'll see more lethal ones as time goes on. The idea of a drone that can loiter around Moscow as it searches for AD systems seems compelling and I saw a video claiming some of the Shaheds Russia is using have this capability. I wonder if this is something we'll see the Ukrainians do at some point.
Thanks Tom! I think now that a modern attack and defense with UAV and balistoc missiles is not a joke nor the easiest thing to do.
Tom, recapping from all your posts on Air Defenses, S-300 systems in use by Russia and Ukraine in the war are capable of engaging more than one threat at the same time? A single Patriot is in some way like fielding 2 or 3 S-300? Thanks!
In the case of the S-300, that depends on the version. AFAIK, earliest version can engage 6 at once.
In the case of the MIM-104F, that could easily be 24+.
Hello Tom,
thanks once again about the insightful article. I have a few questions mostly in relation to missiles rather than LPGM. In a previous article you mentioned that Kinzhal missiles do not reach the advertised 10 mach speed at terminal phases and their maneuverability is limited. Do we know what the actual speed estimate is, and is the 10 mach achieved during mid flight? I am assuming that flak will have little luck intercepting those but can SAMs intercept something flying so fast.
Secondly Iskander is supposed to reach 5+ mach and maneuver at the terminal phase. What is usually considered the terminal phase (is it 5km, 10, 50km?), and do we have any data on if they can achieve what the Russians claim? On your last article you mentioned the Ukrainians claiming 11 out of 11 shot down, and I thought those were very difficult to hit with current systems.
Finally are the Russians exaggerating their hypersonic missile capabilities and is the whole technology a hype or with careful planning, as you mention above, it can be countered to a certain degree.
Thanks in advance
Some answers: https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2023/05/26/ukraines-kinzhal-intercepts-should-cool-hypersonic-hype/
Regarding the exact speed - I think no open source know the answer.
Thanks, interesting.
So far as I know the Kinzahl uses basically the same engine as the Iskander missile so any speed claims should be treated with caution.
The Kinzhal uses a solid-fuel rocket engine, which likely can’t be shut down or throttled in flight. Once the rocket motor has burnt out, the missile then coasts to its target. This raises significant doubts about whether the Kinzhal can actually maintain a sustained speed of Mach 10 throughout its flight.
Air resistance would slow the Kinzhal down just as it reaches the most critical, terminal stage of its attack, leaving it vulnerable to interception.
Source
https://mwi.usma.edu/hypersonic-hype-russias-kinzhal-missiles-and-the-lessons-for-air-defense/#:~:text=The%20Kinzhal%20instead%20uses%20a,down%20or%20throttled%20in%20flight.
Yeah, same is valid for other semi-hyper sonic missiles - Chinese, US, ..., too.
of course - there are no nation-specific laws of physics.
Hi Nick,
I do not know all the answers to your questions, right now - or at least don't know where to search for them (then, I do not know 'by heart' the mass of technical details I'm writing about: I know where to check or ask about them, though).
Permit a few days to check: this is definitely worth a separate feature.
Do you have any idea why Russia is attacking Kyiv at all? Sure, all this intel could theoretically lead to a hit on a piece of a western air defence system to score some propaganda points. But don't they have better things to do with their drone swarms and expensive missles?
Man, what is no one knows is why you are answering questions to Tom. There is too much of you here already. Be so kind - shut up
Звісно, мудило ніколи не зважає на думки інших. Продовжуй
To tie down the PSU's air defences, so these cannot be re-deployed closer to the frontline - or to protect major ammo dumps (three of which were blown up by Russian missiles in the last three weeks).
Rosneft got HISTORY MAXIMUM profit in 2022 - the result of sanctions from Hell during 9 years. Rosneft INCREASED oil production in 2023 to approx 4 M barrels/ day - and got 4+ billion $ pure profit in first quarter 2023 - thr resalt of Mega Super Hard sanctions. Western TV and blogs lied during 9 years about sanctions, lie every month, lie every day
Rosneft now pay HISTORY MAX taxes and still has huge profits. West bought russian goods on 400+ billions $ since 24 feb 2022. So Putin got 400 billions $ for war
you should send your cries to India and China.
Hi Tom,
This is the first time I have commented, so I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your work.
I just wanted to ask you if you have any idea if / how many ammunition depots the Russians have been able to destroy. I have the impression that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is stalling because of this. It also seems to me that this 'swarm' of drones is only designed to distract the Ukrainian defences and then hit the real targets, such as the ammunition depots.
My pleasure and thanks for an interesting question.
AFAIK, over the last three weeks: 3 major arms depots. And yes, I'm in agreement with you: that's ('almost certainly') the reason why the ZSU 'counteroffensive' wasn't initiated yet. They have to replace losses, first.
Sobering, but good to know the truth.
Hi Tom,
is your sources mean building on some "island" in Kyiv when talking about GUR HQ was hit? This place is about 3.5km from my home and it's unlikely I could miss the sound of such strike, cause I didn't sleep that night and heard a lot of different "sounds". It's also not a problem to check that place with my own eyes, if needed :)
Thank you for the offer, but no need to do anything of that kind. There's a good reason why reporting such details is prohibited in Ukraine.
So - it turns out air Air Defence isn't a simple thing...
Good Morning to myself :-D . And thank you, Tom for your work