They were certainly trying to hit such objects like HQ of the GUR MO. And, in some cases, they've hit them.
That said, depending on Perskov's statements for 'truth', or expecting him to enlighten anybody with something like military expertise.... well, in such case, I'm the expert in Tesla cars... ;-)
This source is a complete bullshit. Like this statement: "like this video of a Kharkov strike" - and it's a video from Donbass news channel, wich is obviously about Donbass too (the word "operativnik" - that is a Soviet-style word, still in use in L/DPR and Russia, yet not in Ukraine).
Maybe these reports about quakes were just exaggerations (some people are prone to this, make them a pretext and they'll went off with nonsensical statements). Maybe it was a series of shot down missiles went off in short succession. Maybe it was a mulfunction of railway power supply (due to the strike) and so electric locomotives twitched simultaneously on their ways (power supply leaps in Kyiv were actual up to yesterday evening at least). Too many sane versions to search another one in such a garbage heap as your 1st source - that's my point.
There are plenty of tall buildings in Kyiv. What pisses you off so much about "skyscrappers" comments? If you consider than some very tall buildings are located on the top of the hills (I guess you know which buildings I'm talking about), then the total height from the river level to the top will be quite high. You surely know that the building that was hit by the drone debree tonight is located at the highest point on Nauky ave.
It's not even a minor mistake. Just read what Tom wrote: "S-300 and/or S-400 SAMs [...] near Tokmak against [...] Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovks oblasts". Not only S-300 but likely S-400, not from Tokmak, but near it, not at Kharkiv, but at Kharkiv oblast. The distance from Tokmak to Kharkiv oblast's border is less then 150km, the alleged S-400 range in ballistic mode is 200-230km. Where is a mistake? This man you are talking with is just a stupid jerk or IPSO agent.
Great work Tom, seeing the track of missiles crossing Belarus or it looks like they do, is it likely that they would fire more that would use Belarus airspace or cross over Belarus, one in the misguided hope that Ukraine would fire into there, bringing in Belarus acting all offended
Exactly the opposite: the point of routing cruise missiles via Belarus is to prevent Ukrainians (but also own air defences) from opening fire at them 'until the final moment'. I.e. 'safeguarding' cruise missiles before they can reach western Ukraine.
Well, the Belarus is even more vile and treacherous towards Ukraine than Russia. I have been to Belarus some 4 years ago and the experience was frightful.
Very interesting article, as usual. I got a question: how is Russia stock of cruise missiles going? I mean: I remember reading one of your articles a few months ago were you guessed the Russian stock of Kh missiles were close to run out. Are russian missiles factories still producing cruise missiles despite the tech import restrictions? Were existing russian missiles in stock more numerous than what was initially forecasted? Is Russia getting more of their Kh missiles back from allies?
🤔
Thanks for your dedication Tom, the quality of your job is very appreciated.
Seems, something like 'general agreement' of available sources in the West is that Russia can manufacture around 40 new cruise missiles a month. I would say, the figure appears slightly higher (which in turn means that: yes, they're still making them).
you're funny little troll who is just blaming the democracies whilst not talking about reality how easy it is to cirmcumvent sanctions regime, especially with China nearby.
Reuters had some articles a few months ago about how they were using shell companies to get around sanctions. The bottom line was that electronic imports had actually increased from before the sanctions were put into place. Apparently nothing has been done about this.
I'm not Tom, but here's what i hear about rocket production in Russia - Russia produces 25 Kalibr, 2 Kinzhal, 35 Kh-101, 5 9M723 ballistic missiles for Iskander-M per month.
This kind of tallies up to the massive onslaught in May comparing to March and April. Obviously, ruzzian fascists were waiting on fresh builds as well as shipments of shakheeds from Iran.
Big thanks for new informations. Is there any good reason to attack always Kyjiv, which is quite well protected? If they will attack other places they can have better results or? If they want UA to force spending air defence rocket it will be better to attack other places because now is UA spending lof of patriot, but UA has problem with S300 and other russia type, there should be enough patriots in the world. Are they attacking from Kaspian see so we don't see how much rocket doesn't work and fall down?
One of reasons is mentioned in the article: tying down the PSU's IADS in the Kyiv area and elsewhere in the west, centre and south, so it cannot be re-deployed 'east' - along the frontlines, where it could prevent the VKS from doing anything at all.
thanks for an article. Do you think they really could devastate the remaining Su-24 fleet in Starokonstantyniv (so someone there probably had messed up), or these would be more probably one of the non-airworthy examples (even this would be probably painful)?
So, the 'mountain of destroyed Ukrainian equipment' - turns out to be 'piles' of disused aircraft, 'stored in the open' since early 1990s, perhaps used as sources for extraction of spares?
Man, considering the Russian shortage of cruise missiles, this is even better than when the US Navy's Hornets and Tomcats were wasting laser guided bombs to 'destroy Taliban fighter jets' - which, actually were wreckage of disused Afghan Air Force aircraft, abandoned 20+ years before, back in 2001...
Actually the largest and most irresistible problem is not an information but a conscientiousness of Russian intel officers. Why to strain themselves if you can point at any of these tech graveyards and none of your superiors will have a motive to call your targetting into question? It's an old culture of "pripiski" from Suvorov's notable phraze ("Why to spare infidels? Write down more of them!") through all the Tsarist and Soviet times, and it became stronger only under modern mafia.
In a war between two countries the objective of their militaries is to destroy the other sides military.
In this war Russia decided to use their best missiles targeting civilian infrastructure not military targets.
Probably there are experts here who can explain this is a cunning plan, not stupid. Preferably supported by a list of the goals that this approach successfully realised.
Actually there are doubts about how useful are the Russian satellites due to failed launches and so lack of upgrading.
I quote
"The Ukrainian army can use commercial systems to obtain images of any area in high detail at least twice a day in favourable weather conditions, whereas the Russian army can get an image of the same area approximately once in two weeks. We should also add that the existing Russian satellites provide seriously inferior quality of imagery vis-à-vis American and European commercial satellites."
Instead of wasting my time by insulting Pavel Luzin and others why not provide some facts with credible sources?
About " once every two weeks (which is generally nonsense)" is not nonsense because these satellites are in orbit so only come once by every two weeks, you should know that.
Russia has two optical reconnaissance satellites in orbit now but they were launched between seven and nine years ago, meaning they are probably near the end of their working life.
About image quality, the maximum resolution of the Persona satellites is believed to be 50 centimeters per pixel.
Commercial satellite companies like Maxar and Planet typically have a maximum resolution of around 15 centimeters.
American reconnaissance satellites are believed to have much better resolution than the commercial ones
None of these seems to be a recent pictures, since they are from the Google Earth. The base was attacked at least 3 times (as far as I remember, could be more) with both workshops destroyed by March 2022. It says nothing about effectivness (or lack of it) of the latest strikes.
Note that most of the originally active Su-24M were shot down last year, so restoring long disued aircraft is only chance Ukrainians have to keep their fleet active (This may be the case why they used Su-24MR as Storm Shadow carrier). So, in this case, even destroying non-operational examples could have some significance. But it´s only a speculation of course, I doubt Ukrainians will share the actual results anytime soon.
"whenever there is an air raid alert, they are advised to go to shelters (even if, apparently, too many are still ignoring this)"
There is actually no way to not ignore these advises for the majority of Ukrainians because there is just not even close enough shelters. Something like 1/3rd of appartment buildings have a basement shelter, and even these "lucky" ones have enough room for about 1/2 of building's actual tenants. Special shelters are still even more rare things (and that's an authorities' fail - 1,5 years of missile strikes and still nearly nothing done in this regard); for example in Kyiv the most roomy shelters are still metro stations, and their capacity is about severl thousands... out of 3-4 mln city population, <0,1%.
They're moving it every day, actually. That's why I'm reporting about its (former) position there.
Would you like comment of the destruction of 1000 of bayraktars as well?
You shall find the answer here , not 5)) https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-52923-kiev-rocked-as-new-satellite
They were certainly trying to hit such objects like HQ of the GUR MO. And, in some cases, they've hit them.
That said, depending on Perskov's statements for 'truth', or expecting him to enlighten anybody with something like military expertise.... well, in such case, I'm the expert in Tesla cars... ;-)
Read this, please: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-war-27-may-2023disclaimer
....simply no idea why is anybody taking me seriously... :rolleyes:
Yes. Depleted uranium... radioactive cloud...gamma radiation...
Please go back to high school physics class.
Or enjoy your 30 roubls.
But we saw them used again %)
Never. People who pays you want to live.
This source is a complete bullshit. Like this statement: "like this video of a Kharkov strike" - and it's a video from Donbass news channel, wich is obviously about Donbass too (the word "operativnik" - that is a Soviet-style word, still in use in L/DPR and Russia, yet not in Ukraine).
Maybe these reports about quakes were just exaggerations (some people are prone to this, make them a pretext and they'll went off with nonsensical statements). Maybe it was a series of shot down missiles went off in short succession. Maybe it was a mulfunction of railway power supply (due to the strike) and so electric locomotives twitched simultaneously on their ways (power supply leaps in Kyiv were actual up to yesterday evening at least). Too many sane versions to search another one in such a garbage heap as your 1st source - that's my point.
That substack is a collection of delusional interpretations of events.
At least there is help for you: no need to read my 'delusional interpretations' any more.
there are other more modern systems already doing that.
Ukraine has dozens of its own S-300 batteries, why do you think we need the Greek one to protect Patriot systems specifically?
Nah. And not only no skyscrapers. There's no Ukraine: all misguided Russians of lesser worth... :rolleyes:
There are plenty of tall buildings in Kyiv. What pisses you off so much about "skyscrappers" comments? If you consider than some very tall buildings are located on the top of the hills (I guess you know which buildings I'm talking about), then the total height from the river level to the top will be quite high. You surely know that the building that was hit by the drone debree tonight is located at the highest point on Nauky ave.
it all depends on one's POV. You can stand by one of those few buildings and they WILL scrape the your view, if you know what I mean.
I haven't ever been to Ukraine, and never said I was.
But, have you ever tried to put a radar next to a 5-7-stories building - and then checked the resulting radar picture?
Try doing that, then come back to teach me about 'no skyscrapers in Kyiv'. Thanks a lot - in advance.
Oh, what a pity, someone have no ability to count up from 3. :D
Actually there are 10 buildings of more then 33 storeys in Kyiv - and it's only one of them built on a doubtful soil.
~20 skyscrapers 100 - 168m.
Kyiv is actually more "high-rizing" city then London, L-A or Moscow.
Yep, I can. And seems like you cannot... or just have no desire. :)
:))))
Yep, especially those. And I'm in Kyiv right now.
Modern sources currently define skyscrapers as being at least 100 meters (330 ft) in height.
There 26 buildings higher than this in Kyiv.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_tallest_buildings_in_Ukraine
What is your source for "30 storey building is not a skyscrapper"?
Or is it some alternative fact you invented yourself?
You have forgotten what we are discussing.
Or do you claim is is a good military tactic to locate an air defense system behind a 30 story building?
Never checked the current list, thanx.
'Told you to start addressing me, if you want to address me...
They can from Belgorod.
He can make a minor mistake. It is irrelevant whether it came from Tokmak or from Belgorod.
It's not even a minor mistake. Just read what Tom wrote: "S-300 and/or S-400 SAMs [...] near Tokmak against [...] Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovks oblasts". Not only S-300 but likely S-400, not from Tokmak, but near it, not at Kharkiv, but at Kharkiv oblast. The distance from Tokmak to Kharkiv oblast's border is less then 150km, the alleged S-400 range in ballistic mode is 200-230km. Where is a mistake? This man you are talking with is just a stupid jerk or IPSO agent.
Thank you for banning that troll.
It's not me, it's Sarcastosaurus. I'm the constellation or the bird, not the sarcastic dino. :)
Great work Tom, seeing the track of missiles crossing Belarus or it looks like they do, is it likely that they would fire more that would use Belarus airspace or cross over Belarus, one in the misguided hope that Ukraine would fire into there, bringing in Belarus acting all offended
Exactly the opposite: the point of routing cruise missiles via Belarus is to prevent Ukrainians (but also own air defences) from opening fire at them 'until the final moment'. I.e. 'safeguarding' cruise missiles before they can reach western Ukraine.
Well, the Belarus is even more vile and treacherous towards Ukraine than Russia. I have been to Belarus some 4 years ago and the experience was frightful.
Very interesting article, as usual. I got a question: how is Russia stock of cruise missiles going? I mean: I remember reading one of your articles a few months ago were you guessed the Russian stock of Kh missiles were close to run out. Are russian missiles factories still producing cruise missiles despite the tech import restrictions? Were existing russian missiles in stock more numerous than what was initially forecasted? Is Russia getting more of their Kh missiles back from allies?
🤔
Thanks for your dedication Tom, the quality of your job is very appreciated.
Seems, something like 'general agreement' of available sources in the West is that Russia can manufacture around 40 new cruise missiles a month. I would say, the figure appears slightly higher (which in turn means that: yes, they're still making them).
Good to know. I can only imagine from where they're getting the electronic components.
Thanks again.
Russians are getting electronic from USA Germany Japan Taiwan China and so on. Western TV lied as usual
it's kind of easy to get stuff from China or through Kazakhstan. It's kind of tough to enforce the sanctions in the world of free trade.
Just put sanctions on producer. So they will care whom to sell.
In addition put sanctions on country which resell.
you're funny little troll who is just blaming the democracies whilst not talking about reality how easy it is to cirmcumvent sanctions regime, especially with China nearby.
Common, you bloody commie bot, reveal yourself %)
Oh. I repeat: my opponents write ONLY lies or insults. The main processor in Calibr from USA, FOR example.
Or just look in google " German exported military equipment to Russia despite embargo: Report $134 million worth of ......." 18.03.2022
All criminals behave like you: lies , insults, manipulation, bla bla bla, changing subject.
I can add more facts. And already write MANY facts about so callwd sunctions
Not only Germany. All big western countries helped and help russian military
як європейські компанії допомогають рф виробляти зброю в обхід санкцій
https://fakty.com.ua/ua/svit/20220616-desyatky-yevropejskyh-kompanij-dopomagayut-rf-vyroblyaty-zbroyu-v-obhid-sankczij-rozsliduvannya/
https://thepage.ua/ua/politics/yak-rosiya-viroblyaye-zbroyu-pid-sankciyami
And so on
Reuters had some articles a few months ago about how they were using shell companies to get around sanctions. The bottom line was that electronic imports had actually increased from before the sanctions were put into place. Apparently nothing has been done about this.
There were just two cruise missle attacks in March and April. Obviously, they were stockpiling on the missiles and Shakheeds .
Ukraine Military Intelligence public report (19th of May) indicates the following monthly output:
- 25 Kalibr,
- 35 Х-<>,
- 2 Kingal
- 5 Iskander
https://meta.ua/news/war-in-ukraine/76266-v-gur-informiruyut-chto-rf-naladila-proizvodstvo-raket-skolko-mogut-sdelat-za-mesyats/
Thanks. A colleague at ACIG.info forum has als 'counted' Iraniah Shahed LPGMs deployed so far: came up with some 900.
I am sorry for asking - but can you gag Roman Koval?
He spam the comments with the same thing every bloody day...
Have requested him to stop....but seems, he's ignoring that. On the other hand, I understand and even sympathise with him....
Guess, if things go too far, I'll give him the same '1-week-cooldown'-treatment like 'no more rain'.
Thank you.
Russia produced 500+ cruise missiles during last 1 year - the result of SANCTIONS FROM HELL, during 9 years.
source ?
This application NOT SHOW previous post, sorry i do not know what you ask
This is a pathetic reply. You won't get 15 roubles for this one, stupid russian bot.
I'm not Tom, but here's what i hear about rocket production in Russia - Russia produces 25 Kalibr, 2 Kinzhal, 35 Kh-101, 5 9M723 ballistic missiles for Iskander-M per month.
This kind of tallies up to the massive onslaught in May comparing to March and April. Obviously, ruzzian fascists were waiting on fresh builds as well as shipments of shakheeds from Iran.
Some good analytics here (translate in Chrome bowser) https://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2023/05/29/700580/
Big thanks for new informations. Is there any good reason to attack always Kyjiv, which is quite well protected? If they will attack other places they can have better results or? If they want UA to force spending air defence rocket it will be better to attack other places because now is UA spending lof of patriot, but UA has problem with S300 and other russia type, there should be enough patriots in the world. Are they attacking from Kaspian see so we don't see how much rocket doesn't work and fall down?
One of reasons is mentioned in the article: tying down the PSU's IADS in the Kyiv area and elsewhere in the west, centre and south, so it cannot be re-deployed 'east' - along the frontlines, where it could prevent the VKS from doing anything at all.
There are plenty of military targets which people usually see as important to attack in wartime.
Even Putler is unable to put his goals in words so how can we?
Evidently his main goal is to preserve his position and his power. All other goals are just means.
Kyiv is not "depopulated". Everyone can see it while visiting Kyiv.
You must bear in mind the price of fuel which is 2 times higher than before the war. It definitely caused the fall of private traffic.
A lot of very useful information as usual. Many thanks for supporting Ukraine. Impatient to know your opinion about the attack at Moscow.
Hi Tom,
thanks for an article. Do you think they really could devastate the remaining Su-24 fleet in Starokonstantyniv (so someone there probably had messed up), or these would be more probably one of the non-airworthy examples (even this would be probably painful)?
So, the 'mountain of destroyed Ukrainian equipment' - turns out to be 'piles' of disused aircraft, 'stored in the open' since early 1990s, perhaps used as sources for extraction of spares?
Man, considering the Russian shortage of cruise missiles, this is even better than when the US Navy's Hornets and Tomcats were wasting laser guided bombs to 'destroy Taliban fighter jets' - which, actually were wreckage of disused Afghan Air Force aircraft, abandoned 20+ years before, back in 2001...
Actually the largest and most irresistible problem is not an information but a conscientiousness of Russian intel officers. Why to strain themselves if you can point at any of these tech graveyards and none of your superiors will have a motive to call your targetting into question? It's an old culture of "pripiski" from Suvorov's notable phraze ("Why to spare infidels? Write down more of them!") through all the Tsarist and Soviet times, and it became stronger only under modern mafia.
For those too stupid to read I can repeat: it's not a matter of intelligence, it's a matter of conscientiousness. :)
What is your definition of stupid?
In a war between two countries the objective of their militaries is to destroy the other sides military.
In this war Russia decided to use their best missiles targeting civilian infrastructure not military targets.
Probably there are experts here who can explain this is a cunning plan, not stupid. Preferably supported by a list of the goals that this approach successfully realised.
Oh yes, they were wise enough to predict "Kyiv in 3 days".
....and it turned out the pictures posted by that Twitter are months old. Case closed.
Please, the next time check what you're posting in response: I do not have time to waste with fake news.
Actually there are doubts about how useful are the Russian satellites due to failed launches and so lack of upgrading.
I quote
"The Ukrainian army can use commercial systems to obtain images of any area in high detail at least twice a day in favourable weather conditions, whereas the Russian army can get an image of the same area approximately once in two weeks. We should also add that the existing Russian satellites provide seriously inferior quality of imagery vis-à-vis American and European commercial satellites."
Source
https://ridl.io/satellites-of-stagnation/#:~:text=Today%2C%20Russian%20military%20satellites%20orbiting,location%20satellites%2C%202%20Persona%20optical
Instead of wasting my time by insulting Pavel Luzin and others why not provide some facts with credible sources?
About " once every two weeks (which is generally nonsense)" is not nonsense because these satellites are in orbit so only come once by every two weeks, you should know that.
Russia has two optical reconnaissance satellites in orbit now but they were launched between seven and nine years ago, meaning they are probably near the end of their working life.
About image quality, the maximum resolution of the Persona satellites is believed to be 50 centimeters per pixel.
Commercial satellite companies like Maxar and Planet typically have a maximum resolution of around 15 centimeters.
American reconnaissance satellites are believed to have much better resolution than the commercial ones
None of these seems to be a recent pictures, since they are from the Google Earth. The base was attacked at least 3 times (as far as I remember, could be more) with both workshops destroyed by March 2022. It says nothing about effectivness (or lack of it) of the latest strikes.
Note that most of the originally active Su-24M were shot down last year, so restoring long disued aircraft is only chance Ukrainians have to keep their fleet active (This may be the case why they used Su-24MR as Storm Shadow carrier). So, in this case, even destroying non-operational examples could have some significance. But it´s only a speculation of course, I doubt Ukrainians will share the actual results anytime soon.
No idea, Adam.
"whenever there is an air raid alert, they are advised to go to shelters (even if, apparently, too many are still ignoring this)"
There is actually no way to not ignore these advises for the majority of Ukrainians because there is just not even close enough shelters. Something like 1/3rd of appartment buildings have a basement shelter, and even these "lucky" ones have enough room for about 1/2 of building's actual tenants. Special shelters are still even more rare things (and that's an authorities' fail - 1,5 years of missile strikes and still nearly nothing done in this regard); for example in Kyiv the most roomy shelters are still metro stations, and their capacity is about severl thousands... out of 3-4 mln city population, <0,1%.