Hello everybody! June was a long month. One with lots of developments, and large amounts of work for me, and – although bad at predictions (which is why I’m usually avoiding them) – that itch in my small toe is telling me that July is going to remain that way. Certainly enough, was very busy the last few days, and thus have managed only a few ‘sporadic flash updates’ on the Facebook. Thus, it’s time for a ‘bigger’ update here…
I read multiple complaints on pro-ruzzian so called voienkor channels that ruzzian artillery are suffering greatly from counter-artillery strikes. The quote was something like that "when our (ruzzians) artillery is still 'finding' the target - Ukrainian artillery already hitting their position".
It might be related to lack of maintenance and artillery maintenance specialists in ruzzian army, as well as usage of foreign and old ammunition that would have different ballistics.
Old "Alex Koval" avatar on Medium posted exactly the same words on Medium.
Here is the quote: "Without Bradleys, Leopards, MRAP, M113, Abrams, Marders, AMX-10, ATACMS, Strykers, LAV 2, M1117 Ukraine army liberated Zhitomirsky, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mikolaiv, Kherson regions. But using all this Glorious weapons achieved NOTHING…..."
No one except you knows a rate of this losses (you should know - most people do not trust Konashenkov). And everybody except you know the difference between fighting unprepared enemy and enemy who built defense for months and filled all trenches up with fresh flesh in three defense lines. But I think you believe in something else
Dear Tom, would you say that the reason for Russians to produce their main effort in the North is mostly due to the easier management in the supply chain ?
Do we see troubles in the Russian logistics for the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts?
I would add that given limited RuFOR offensive means, the area betwen the Oskil and Siversky Donets rivers holds the best short-term strategic potential for Russia, in that a single major breakthrough could hypothetically allow them to clear that entire area and anchor against/behind the rivers 'for the rest of the war.' That is, clearing that area would significantly improve their overall defensive posture.
But it's been almost the purest stalemate of the war since late October.
Thank you these were actually better news than I expected - probably because of the EMCON silence in the south.
The VSRF attack in the North seems logical - if they want to increase the chances of their counterattacks in the South the UAF reserves should be as far away from there as possible. Now there are two questions:
- did the UAF do their homework and fortified their positions there since last November (like the Russians did in the South) and
- how much reserves can both sides muster there?
IMHO defending the southern axis is way more important to the Russians than attacking the northern, so I don't think they would REALLY weaken their forces in the South. So the northern flank is more about info war: haha, we recaptured what you have recaptured - regardless of how big it is. (I assume that they don't have enough troops to hold the South and Bakhmut AND have a strong attack force in the North. If this assumption is wrong then the UAF will be in trouble.)
And each is waiting for its opportunity. The question is who is going to 'lose nerves' as first, and 'deploy operational-level' reserves as first, in turn enabling the other side to try making the 'decisive move'.
Do you think that russians has also significant amount of operational reserves in the rear in Southern Ukraine? It seems like they committed almost everything to the 1st and 2nd line of defence and hope that it will drain ukrainian resources to an extend they won't be able to advance further. Some analysts saying like russians committed already about 70-80% and it's doing its job right now.
Considering ruzzians are using two spetsnaz brigades to plug the gaps in the defence line... This is bad sign for them.
As for the "value" of each areas - Bakhmut might be very sensitive for poo-tin and his generals - loosing it fast and immediately after Wagner mutiny would be very bad politically.
Agree. From what I see, considering that I have very limited access to the information, things play according to UAF plan. Russians trying to shuffle their reserves all over the front - they need to defend south, they can’t leave Bakhmut and they’re also trying to attack in Kremina, which sounds for me suicidal. I really hope that UAF will manage to open another front in Oleshky or Kakhovka so russians will have another dilemma about where concentrate their remaining resources.
I believe that Russia had the option to deploy more troops, armoured vehicles and artillery in the south, but would risk having them more vulnerable and inoperable due to logistical problems. So deploying them at a place they have better logistics and keeping some Ukrainian forces out of the others frontlines would be a better use.
Quite a lot of useful information as usual. We have also a bit of optimistic news from Ukrainian official sources. Unfortunately Ukrainian writer Amelina wounded in Kramatorsk died yesterday in the hospital in Dnipro. A lot of victims die later in hospitals and usually these cases are not reported.
Have you heard about American ex Marine, who was killed in this Pizzeria (report by CBS News)? It's so careless to use civilian restaurants in military uniform. Especially near frontline and in eastern region where concentration of vatniks so hi :( and especially after ruzzians proved so many times that they don't care about 'collateral damage' ...
Many well-known persons are in the army: Yuriy Lutsenko (he is over 50 now), Oleg Sentsov, Pavel Kazarin and others. Ukraine loses the bravest and the best.
It's hardly possible. Both MIM-104 were sure to have been deployed in the vicinity of the capital. They just wouldn't have been able to reach the targets.
Tom described this situation ages ago (and that post worth a movie itself), now this is confirmed by ZSU. But No, some unknown expert is saying us it's impossible. Thank you, it's all clear now
1. To use MIM-104 against targets within enemy territory one need to move them away from the capital towards border (as you state it: "a part of a Patriot SAM-site, in ‘Assault Mode', by night" etc). You don't expect them to get Russians in Briansk Oblast from within Kyiv Oblast, do you?
2. I think anybody in Genstab ZSU who would give such an order could be considered insane. At least as long as Ukraine possess only two MIM-104 batteries.
I personally had rather not rely on pictures across the Patriot trucks and would better wait for more reliable confirmation.
What if they have more than two batteries, but didn't tell us about it? But seriously, major Russian attacks on Kyiv were on May 9th, and the next one on May 16th. Russians don't have enough missiles or people to program their flightpaths, and after a major cruise missile attack on Kyiv it takes about a week to prepare the next one. In the meantime, they send Shaheeds which can be dealt with with the Gepards. Ukrainian air defense command calculated a time window during which there was low probability of attack on Kyiv and decided to use that time to pay a little visit to the border area with their Patriots.
I think they took one or couple of launching stations and deployed them closer to border. Since we know that ukrainian Patriot is integrated with other radars across the country in one air-defence system, they could use that data to fire some rockets against enemy aircrafts. Could it be possible? I am just assuming, im not a specialist.
Great work Tom. To sum up, all quiet on the eastern front. Nothing happened, thousands perished.
1) I've seen claims that the storm shadow strike was on a building (bunker?) where pilots reside. MALDs were launched from one direction to engage pantsirs, while the storm shadow missile came from another direction. Is that correct? Do you know anything about pilots supposedly killed there?
2) What is the defence plan in the south for the VSRF? There are many lines of fortifications but you are reporting constant counter attacks on the very first one. Does the VSRF really have so many troops that they can man all the lines and counter attack incessantly, or they really don't and once these counter attacks are blunted, there won't be much left to resist the ZSU?
3) I know you mentioned it but it is confusing to me. Where did the ZSU cross the main, dense minefield? Is it just in Robotyne? Are there any similarly dense minefields further south?
4) Is the PSU still launching HARMs in any significant numbers?
5) Do you know how western IFVs and tanks are fairing in actual engagements, rather than just being hit by artillery? All the claims I've seen suggest that they are much more survivable for the crews. However, I've seen very little in terms of them actually engaging targets.
Regarding (5), at least one Ukrainian officer mentioned that the AMX-10 is useless in the front line (too thin armor protection for crew). Even a 152mm artillery round nearby can kill all crew with shrapnel. So, it's only suitable for reconnaissance, not for entering an area covered by artillery.
I suspect that most tanks like the Leopard 2 and Bradleys were damaged by artillery, beyond the range of engagement with enemy vehicles. The heavy mining restricts movement immensely and exposes them to artillery attacks.
Trouble is, the few Leopard 2s aren't even fighting other tanks, but the artillery denies their use. Until the artillery (and mines and Ka-52) is neutered, they cannot show their capabilities.
And that means modern air force is quite necessary. Ukraine can consume in a day the monthly production of USA in artillery shells at the moment.
To me, this doesn't sound more as a complaint, just an observation. A lightly armored vehicle doesn't have much chance of survival in an artillery-rich environment. Basically, almost nothing can survive a direct hit of a 152mm shell
2.) For the time being: yes, it still has. It's depleting reserve units on the 2nd and 3rd defence lines.
3.) In the Robotyne area.
4.) 2-6 per day, though nowadays 'mixed' with MALDs.
5.) That's a complex topic, but, essentially, most of damage is caused by mines. Then it's the question on how soon can the ZSU recover them. If it's fast enough, good. If not, they're then killed by Russian artillery deploying incendiary ammno (if that artillery is still intact), or by Ka-52s.
6.) 'OK' for 'general orientation'. Directions of attack are all 'way off'.
Ruslan - reserves are those units that are NOT involved in direct fight and in proximity of the place to get involved.
The fact that ruzzia sends specialised expensive light infantry units to plug the gaps in front line infantry defensive positions seems to indicate lack of regular line infantry capable of plugging those holes. Or complete and utter incompetence of the Corps/Army/Direction/Poo-tin level commanders.
Spetsnaz is something like their 'best': if they are losing this - and they're losing them a lot - they're sooner or later run out of them. And then their defences are going to depend on their 'average' - and that's poorer than anything within the ZSU.
Is the part of the situation in robotyne right? i havent seen any thing about it being taken only fighting in the forests on the left of it? maybe don hill mistook novopokrovka (south of bilohiria close to luhivske that some sources said the AFU captured recently) with novoprokopivka and assumed robotyne was taken?
This is according to my info. Mind: I have my methods of working. I'm none of modern-day kids nowadays, wasting time with single videos and geo-location, and/or insistent on 'video' (or even [commercial] sat photos] or it didn't happen'-theories.
Moreover, battles of this kind are 'fluid' affairs. A unit might be 'here', 'right now', and then 'in some different place', 2-3 hours later. Especially if on advance, say, into the enemy flank or rear; or if on advance, and then suffering losses because it run into an unknown minefield...
That's why, sometimes it happens I get 'news' in sense, 'unit XY reached place XWY', then it turns out, 2, 4, 6, 10 days later, 'that unit is not there'.
....It's not, 'any more'....
....and then there are wiseacres who call me 'wrong', 'incompetent' and whatever - because they do not understand such affairs...
Not really. A MiG-29 or Su-27 is usually deploying two AGM-88s per single mission. F-16s can't do more in this regards: the sole difference is that they can be equipped with sensors enabling better deployment of AGM-88s.
No clear idea. Guess, it's a mix of patriotism, devotion to duty, and obsolete romantic ideas about aerial warfare - combined with lowest common denominator.
Namely, if Ukraine needs new jets, then at least Rafale F4 or F-35s. They know they neither are going to get, nor can afford these, and since there is a large number of second-hand F-16s available around, are aiming for these instead, as 'something like easiest solution'.
The VKS has no targeting pods. Essentially, Su-34s and Su-35s have a build-in target-detection system, which is then used to 'tell their Kh-31' where and what kind of target to search for.
Thanks Tom for another enlightening report the UAF is slogging it out and moving forward slowly but for sure, like how the Rats took out the Storm Shadow staying tuned
I am not Tom, so my apologies.
I read multiple complaints on pro-ruzzian so called voienkor channels that ruzzian artillery are suffering greatly from counter-artillery strikes. The quote was something like that "when our (ruzzians) artillery is still 'finding' the target - Ukrainian artillery already hitting their position".
It might be related to lack of maintenance and artillery maintenance specialists in ruzzian army, as well as usage of foreign and old ammunition that would have different ballistics.
A) You've read that here?
B) Yes, because they've bought old stocks from Iran - all manufactured in China, 40+ years ago...
Have you got exact figures for these 'heavy losses'?
This is another incarnation of "Alex Koval".
Old "Alex Koval" avatar on Medium posted exactly the same words on Medium.
Here is the quote: "Without Bradleys, Leopards, MRAP, M113, Abrams, Marders, AMX-10, ATACMS, Strykers, LAV 2, M1117 Ukraine army liberated Zhitomirsky, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Mikolaiv, Kherson regions. But using all this Glorious weapons achieved NOTHING…..."
https://yaakov-c-lui-hyden.medium.com/one-of-the-sides-in-the-russia-and-ukraine-war-is-not-trying-to-win-e50bd1cef8be - check the comments there.
Thx for letting me know: I'll keep an eye on him.
....even more so because simultaneously with that 're-appearance', a fake 'Tom Cooper account' appeared on the Telegram, spreading loads of nonsense.
No one except you knows a rate of this losses (you should know - most people do not trust Konashenkov). And everybody except you know the difference between fighting unprepared enemy and enemy who built defense for months and filled all trenches up with fresh flesh in three defense lines. But I think you believe in something else
This is "Alex Koval" reborn.
Dear Tom, would you say that the reason for Russians to produce their main effort in the North is mostly due to the easier management in the supply chain ?
Do we see troubles in the Russian logistics for the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson fronts?
Yup. The area is (geographically and railways-wise) the 'closest' to Russia.
I would add that given limited RuFOR offensive means, the area betwen the Oskil and Siversky Donets rivers holds the best short-term strategic potential for Russia, in that a single major breakthrough could hypothetically allow them to clear that entire area and anchor against/behind the rivers 'for the rest of the war.' That is, clearing that area would significantly improve their overall defensive posture.
But it's been almost the purest stalemate of the war since late October.
Thank you these were actually better news than I expected - probably because of the EMCON silence in the south.
The VSRF attack in the North seems logical - if they want to increase the chances of their counterattacks in the South the UAF reserves should be as far away from there as possible. Now there are two questions:
- did the UAF do their homework and fortified their positions there since last November (like the Russians did in the South) and
- how much reserves can both sides muster there?
IMHO defending the southern axis is way more important to the Russians than attacking the northern, so I don't think they would REALLY weaken their forces in the South. So the northern flank is more about info war: haha, we recaptured what you have recaptured - regardless of how big it is. (I assume that they don't have enough troops to hold the South and Bakhmut AND have a strong attack force in the North. If this assumption is wrong then the UAF will be in trouble.)
Right now, both sides have a similar situation:
- 'approximately enough' to 'hold the line';
- 'lots of reserves in the rear'.
And each is waiting for its opportunity. The question is who is going to 'lose nerves' as first, and 'deploy operational-level' reserves as first, in turn enabling the other side to try making the 'decisive move'.
Hi Tom!
Do you think that russians has also significant amount of operational reserves in the rear in Southern Ukraine? It seems like they committed almost everything to the 1st and 2nd line of defence and hope that it will drain ukrainian resources to an extend they won't be able to advance further. Some analysts saying like russians committed already about 70-80% and it's doing its job right now.
Considering ruzzians are using two spetsnaz brigades to plug the gaps in the defence line... This is bad sign for them.
As for the "value" of each areas - Bakhmut might be very sensitive for poo-tin and his generals - loosing it fast and immediately after Wagner mutiny would be very bad politically.
Agree. From what I see, considering that I have very limited access to the information, things play according to UAF plan. Russians trying to shuffle their reserves all over the front - they need to defend south, they can’t leave Bakhmut and they’re also trying to attack in Kremina, which sounds for me suicidal. I really hope that UAF will manage to open another front in Oleshky or Kakhovka so russians will have another dilemma about where concentrate their remaining resources.
AFAIK, they still have something like 'equivalent to 2-3 untouched divisions'.
Arguably, all are at around 60-70% of their nominal strength, but these are still sizeable formations.
Ukraine deployed the new 88th OMBr around Kupyansk a month ago, or at least part of it.
https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1661332365879173120
I believe that Russia had the option to deploy more troops, armoured vehicles and artillery in the south, but would risk having them more vulnerable and inoperable due to logistical problems. So deploying them at a place they have better logistics and keeping some Ukrainian forces out of the others frontlines would be a better use.
Always hope they miscalculate everything.
Дякую
Quite a lot of useful information as usual. We have also a bit of optimistic news from Ukrainian official sources. Unfortunately Ukrainian writer Amelina wounded in Kramatorsk died yesterday in the hospital in Dnipro. A lot of victims die later in hospitals and usually these cases are not reported.
Maybe because they are hard to follow in case when the injured person survives for some time.
Yes, have heard of Amelina.... sad to hear that.
Have you heard about American ex Marine, who was killed in this Pizzeria (report by CBS News)? It's so careless to use civilian restaurants in military uniform. Especially near frontline and in eastern region where concentration of vatniks so hi :( and especially after ruzzians proved so many times that they don't care about 'collateral damage' ...
Many well-known persons are in the army: Yuriy Lutsenko (he is over 50 now), Oleg Sentsov, Pavel Kazarin and others. Ukraine loses the bravest and the best.
...regarding the new anti-rocket tactics...it's like the old joke:
..after repelling the attack, the soldier returns to the trench and reports:
"танки подбиты... ну хорошо, - отвечает командир... тогда положи гранаты на полку..."
Thank you for your work.
An indirect confirmation that the helicopters and airplanes in Bryansk region were downed by a Patriot https://bykvu.com/ua/bukvy/u-povitrianykh-sylakh-vyznaly-shcho-u-travni-patriot-zbyv-try-rosiiski-helikoptery-i-dva-litaky/
It's hardly possible. Both MIM-104 were sure to have been deployed in the vicinity of the capital. They just wouldn't have been able to reach the targets.
Tom described this situation ages ago (and that post worth a movie itself), now this is confirmed by ZSU. But No, some unknown expert is saying us it's impossible. Thank you, it's all clear now
Think you might want to read - at last - the Part 6, here:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/ukraine-air-war-assault-mode-part-274?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
To what end? Everything seems clear enough.
1. To use MIM-104 against targets within enemy territory one need to move them away from the capital towards border (as you state it: "a part of a Patriot SAM-site, in ‘Assault Mode', by night" etc). You don't expect them to get Russians in Briansk Oblast from within Kyiv Oblast, do you?
2. I think anybody in Genstab ZSU who would give such an order could be considered insane. At least as long as Ukraine possess only two MIM-104 batteries.
I personally had rather not rely on pictures across the Patriot trucks and would better wait for more reliable confirmation.
What if they have more than two batteries, but didn't tell us about it? But seriously, major Russian attacks on Kyiv were on May 9th, and the next one on May 16th. Russians don't have enough missiles or people to program their flightpaths, and after a major cruise missile attack on Kyiv it takes about a week to prepare the next one. In the meantime, they send Shaheeds which can be dealt with with the Gepards. Ukrainian air defense command calculated a time window during which there was low probability of attack on Kyiv and decided to use that time to pay a little visit to the border area with their Patriots.
"What if they have more than two batteries..." - no, they don't.
"But seriously..." - seriously? It's not a computer game with save\reload, and it's not pitch-and-tossing (luck or bad luck). It's war.
And, btw, you're neglecting facts (Russian jets and helicopters were crashed not by night, but in the morning, a couple of hours after the sunrise).
I think they took one or couple of launching stations and deployed them closer to border. Since we know that ukrainian Patriot is integrated with other radars across the country in one air-defence system, they could use that data to fire some rockets against enemy aircrafts. Could it be possible? I am just assuming, im not a specialist.
Thanks Tom
Great work Tom. To sum up, all quiet on the eastern front. Nothing happened, thousands perished.
1) I've seen claims that the storm shadow strike was on a building (bunker?) where pilots reside. MALDs were launched from one direction to engage pantsirs, while the storm shadow missile came from another direction. Is that correct? Do you know anything about pilots supposedly killed there?
2) What is the defence plan in the south for the VSRF? There are many lines of fortifications but you are reporting constant counter attacks on the very first one. Does the VSRF really have so many troops that they can man all the lines and counter attack incessantly, or they really don't and once these counter attacks are blunted, there won't be much left to resist the ZSU?
3) I know you mentioned it but it is confusing to me. Where did the ZSU cross the main, dense minefield? Is it just in Robotyne? Are there any similarly dense minefields further south?
4) Is the PSU still launching HARMs in any significant numbers?
5) Do you know how western IFVs and tanks are fairing in actual engagements, rather than just being hit by artillery? All the claims I've seen suggest that they are much more survivable for the crews. However, I've seen very little in terms of them actually engaging targets.
6) How accurate are the following maps? https://twitter.com/Martinnkaaaa/status/1675762012477947907
I find them particularly interesting as they show the exact units involved.
Poland do not need to leave NATO to do it, but they do have to find a Dmitry :)
Regarding (5), at least one Ukrainian officer mentioned that the AMX-10 is useless in the front line (too thin armor protection for crew). Even a 152mm artillery round nearby can kill all crew with shrapnel. So, it's only suitable for reconnaissance, not for entering an area covered by artillery.
I suspect that most tanks like the Leopard 2 and Bradleys were damaged by artillery, beyond the range of engagement with enemy vehicles. The heavy mining restricts movement immensely and exposes them to artillery attacks.
Thanks. I don't know what is more disturbing, the fact that they tried to use AMX-10 on the front line, or that they are complaining about it.
I think you have old numbers. It's 2500000 russian tanks against 6 leopards, all of which have been destroyed.
100500 is a traditional number of ruzzian tanks.
And those tanks have apparently destroyed khuliard Leopard tanks and three Death Stars.
Trouble is, the few Leopard 2s aren't even fighting other tanks, but the artillery denies their use. Until the artillery (and mines and Ka-52) is neutered, they cannot show their capabilities.
And that means modern air force is quite necessary. Ukraine can consume in a day the monthly production of USA in artillery shells at the moment.
To me, this doesn't sound more as a complaint, just an observation. A lightly armored vehicle doesn't have much chance of survival in an artillery-rich environment. Basically, almost nothing can survive a direct hit of a 152mm shell
M2 Bradley is immobilized by mines or artillery shells while BTR or BMP would be destroyed together with their crews in the same circumstances http://1news.zp.ua/svo%d1%97mi-nogami-rozminovu%d1%94mo-polya-pihotinczi-zsu-rozpovili-pro-czinu-kontrnastupu-na-zaporizkomu-napryamku-ta-znachennya-m2-bradley/
1.) Yes and 'no comment'.
2.) For the time being: yes, it still has. It's depleting reserve units on the 2nd and 3rd defence lines.
3.) In the Robotyne area.
4.) 2-6 per day, though nowadays 'mixed' with MALDs.
5.) That's a complex topic, but, essentially, most of damage is caused by mines. Then it's the question on how soon can the ZSU recover them. If it's fast enough, good. If not, they're then killed by Russian artillery deploying incendiary ammno (if that artillery is still intact), or by Ka-52s.
6.) 'OK' for 'general orientation'. Directions of attack are all 'way off'.
Thank you. Slow grind.
Using Spetsnaz to plug the gaps in the defence line...
Does it mean lack of reserves?
Ruslan - reserves are those units that are NOT involved in direct fight and in proximity of the place to get involved.
The fact that ruzzia sends specialised expensive light infantry units to plug the gaps in front line infantry defensive positions seems to indicate lack of regular line infantry capable of plugging those holes. Or complete and utter incompetence of the Corps/Army/Direction/Poo-tin level commanders.
They use Spetsnaz as an elite infantry for quite a while.
Yes, as a line infantry. Which is like using a scalpel to open a can of corned beef.
Are you still at Kherson, like your twin brother Alex Koval?
It means the Russians are in trouble.
Spetsnaz is something like their 'best': if they are losing this - and they're losing them a lot - they're sooner or later run out of them. And then their defences are going to depend on their 'average' - and that's poorer than anything within the ZSU.
Is the part of the situation in robotyne right? i havent seen any thing about it being taken only fighting in the forests on the left of it? maybe don hill mistook novopokrovka (south of bilohiria close to luhivske that some sources said the AFU captured recently) with novoprokopivka and assumed robotyne was taken?
This is according to my info. Mind: I have my methods of working. I'm none of modern-day kids nowadays, wasting time with single videos and geo-location, and/or insistent on 'video' (or even [commercial] sat photos] or it didn't happen'-theories.
Moreover, battles of this kind are 'fluid' affairs. A unit might be 'here', 'right now', and then 'in some different place', 2-3 hours later. Especially if on advance, say, into the enemy flank or rear; or if on advance, and then suffering losses because it run into an unknown minefield...
That's why, sometimes it happens I get 'news' in sense, 'unit XY reached place XWY', then it turns out, 2, 4, 6, 10 days later, 'that unit is not there'.
....It's not, 'any more'....
....and then there are wiseacres who call me 'wrong', 'incompetent' and whatever - because they do not understand such affairs...
Don drew his map on my instructions (to save me time; right now, I'm busy editing and illustrating this one, so it can go into the print: https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/the-indo-pakistani-war-of-1971-volume-2-showdown-in-the-west.php?sid=a4cf5ab1dbe758933e2a924d8acc64eb).
got it, thanks for explaining
Tom,
A naive question: would some F-16 have some SEAD capability and facilitate PSU ground attack operations?
Not really. A MiG-29 or Su-27 is usually deploying two AGM-88s per single mission. F-16s can't do more in this regards: the sole difference is that they can be equipped with sensors enabling better deployment of AGM-88s.
No clear idea. Guess, it's a mix of patriotism, devotion to duty, and obsolete romantic ideas about aerial warfare - combined with lowest common denominator.
Namely, if Ukraine needs new jets, then at least Rafale F4 or F-35s. They know they neither are going to get, nor can afford these, and since there is a large number of second-hand F-16s available around, are aiming for these instead, as 'something like easiest solution'.
Considering we all speculating on this matter I would like to add my 2 kopiyok :-)
It might be that
- Ukraine General Staff smarter than Tom (no offense I hope),
- It is the work for the future - start pushing now and you might get it in a year time, when it would be useful.
Does anyone know if the Mig and Sukhoi use anything similar to the HTS (HARM Targeting System) to launch and guide their HARMs?
The VKS has no targeting pods. Essentially, Su-34s and Su-35s have a build-in target-detection system, which is then used to 'tell their Kh-31' where and what kind of target to search for.
Sorry, I didn't make myself clear, I was referring to Ukrainian MiGs and Su_27s
For being all quiet on the southern front, everything seems moving... many thanks Tom for sum all up for us!
Thanks Tom for another enlightening report the UAF is slogging it out and moving forward slowly but for sure, like how the Rats took out the Storm Shadow staying tuned