Hello everybody! After probing and ‘mapping’ reorganised and bolstered Ukrainian air defences for weeks and months, the last night the Russians appear to have launched their ‘Winter Missile Campaign’ of 2023-24 - with a massive missile barrage. Before I go into more details, and because it seems we’ve got lots of new readers, who were not around the last winter, here some of ‘vocabulary’ that’s going to be used in this kind of reports. This is going to be followed with a short introduction to the military discipline called ‘mapping’, and then with a summary of known facts about last night’s Russian strikes.
Sure, but the extend of informations shared (and latency) is not that clear. Especially because of constant fear of “escalation” in the west.
But the war is uppon us in Europe/West, whether you want it or not. There is now way going back now, major war is unleashing in the east with stakes high - survival of independent Ukraine (and sort of functional international rules) and survival of Kremlin cleptocracy (and their return to big powers influencing/controlling former Soviet areas in central/eastern).
Yup. And the author here has no clear mind, as you've already concluded correctly. So, please, be so kind, do both of us a favour: go and waste somebody else's time with your conspiracy theories.
Orban also knows that it is war, but he wants to blackmail EU and to get money not only from putler but from Brussels also. The same with the other putler-fans.
This is a war between Ukraine and Russia, so please do not try to play on the side of Russian propagandists. A war that will drag all of Europe into conflict if the latter does not wake up!
Awful night for all country, but Charkiv suffered at most. I hope that no military object or SAM was hitted. And will you write about shotted Su 34. I personally believe that it was Patriot
Exactly. It gives effect because there were not any of Kalibre missle. Russian fleet was damaged and forced to move, that reduced its own efficiency. Actually Ukraine also have to produce more own accurate MLRS in order to destroy C300/400 on the Russian territory, because it is only way to effectively prevent launching of ballistic missiles
What is the impact - that's what we do not know. E.g. no one of 5 Kinzhal missiles has been shot down, so they hit they targets, but we do not know these targets (And my guess is these targets are precious. Even VSFR would not spent expensive Kinzhals to cheap targets.) If any missile or drone hit a military target, Ukrainians are silent about it. If they hit some critical infrastructure, we may get know later.
At least, Russians have more knowledge of Ukrainian IADS and PSU has less SAM missiles. I guess it is just a start of a longer Russian campaign (unfortunately).
In fact, Kinzals are not precise on big distances. I remember that 3 such missiles hitted my city, Kolomiya. They targeted airport on the vicinity of city, where was a graduation of pilots. Missiles weren't shot down, but there was only one victim -- a boy, who was killed in his own house in kilometer from the airport.
Secondly l, it is one case when Russians used 6 Kinzals to hit 6 transformers
So, it is not a fact that Kinzals hitted something
I wonder when Western authorities will get wise about the real danger from Putler's Russia. How much time will be needed to understand that small countries of northern Europe would be smashed by Russian missiles in few hours?
My fear is that they know, and that they provide Ukraine with just what is needed to hold the russians back, and then the russians spend all their personell and materiell on this war. The good thing will be that putler is going down with the ship, and russia will be weak for decades. The bad thing will be that it will cost a lot of Ukrainian lives....
Thank you for your sympathy. I have already noted in my comments that the USA evidently wants to manipulate with the course of this war but it is clear that the USA is not capable to do it. Moreover now we see that the USA is unable to control its own structures concerning the mainstreams of the foreign policy.
While i agree with you, that western autorities know that this amount of help is not enough, I don't agree with copium about "bleeding russia". Thing is, russia is a very big country, biggest in the world. Around 140 million people, and if putin wants, eventually he will send all 140 millions to fight in war against Ukraine. russia keeps it's weapons and ammo production even now. Hell, it's even ramped it up in few times, being under sanctions. russian missiles still 80-90% made of western details, their other weapons still have tons of western equipment inside, and it's not gonna change until russia exists as state and won't be economically isolated from other world. And even after that, russia will be capable to fight in war for years.
By whatever reason, western autorities are fear that russia may lose war. Maybe they are fear that it willl start WWIII, maybe they fear that russia may breaks into smaller states and no-one knows who will put their hands on russian nukes, maybe they keep playing in "realpolitik" and waiting their term to ends, so russia will be another people's problem, or maybe they are waiting for putin's death. Whatever it is, it's definitely not some kind of super duper plan of bleeding russia. 2 years of full scale war was enough to understand that bleeding strategy won't work on russia at all. Ukraine will simply run out of people way faster than russia.
Some civil targets were hit because the targets of interest were in fact missed. I know 2 such cases definitely, maybe there are more. Some military targets were not hit notwithstanding numerous attacks. So Russian missiles are not so exact in fact.
Hey Tom, It has been a while since I read your "Assault Mode" series and therefore I might be missing some point here, but isn't that so that when the Ukrainian SAM system is activated (and thus detected/mapped by the Russians), it changes its position within minutes to avoid been struck? Therefore, the actual map of the SAM systems the Russians are monitoring is not up-to-date? Apparently, I must be wrong due to the very successful Russian attack. Thanks!
Yes, but that relocation is of operative nature. So, you drive into your next position which can be 500 metres away or a few kilometers. But that doesn't change the tactical picture of the map.
Reason for that is, that a radar or SAM has an objective of securing a certain area. Switching away from there by means of 10, 20 and even more kilometers would change the picture.
Thank you for the write up. Very hard times for Ukraine. The Russians are more resolute to destroy Ukraine than the West is in helping Ukraine. I hope Ukraine is scrapping from the bottom of the barrel to rebuild a strategic nuclear deterrent. Like scrapping from the bottomest pit to find and use anything for such an endeavour as clandestinely as they can.
Ukraine can make some old tactical nukes in about of few months. Have all knowledges, technologies and materials to do it, but it won't be exactly "deterrent". Rather just nuclear warheads for existing weapons. Have the same for strategical nukes too, but it will take few years to make them, and as some our officials said in different sources, something in between of 1 to 10 billions dollars for it. But making of either tactical or strategical nukes will immideatly down all western help to Ukraine to below zero.
Yes they should do it clandestinely as a multi year project. Agreed even if in the short term you can only get tactical nukes, you should work on it as soon as possible. The West isn't going to be there to protect you. If it wasn't for Ukrainian resistance, there wouldnt be a Ukrainian state. It wasnt Patriots, Abrams, F16s, NASAMs that stopped the invasion of Feb 2022.
There were three missile strikes on Kharkiv, at approximately: 5:00, 7:00 and 7:35. The strikes did not target energy infrastructure. Thank you, Tom, for the article. We look forward to your analyses on the front.
Привет из Запорожья. Сегодня тяжёлый день, давно такого не было.
Very sorry to hear that...
Seems, the West is convinced a city like Zaporizhzhya needs no seriously bolstered air defences... only Kyiv and Odesa 'matter'... :sad:
В Одессе, не смотря на ПВО, тоже выдался ужасный день
Yes, but seems Kharkiv, Dnipro and Zaproizhzhya suffered most of losses...
Держитесь! :(
It is interesting how such professional writer, like this one, fail to mention any USA/Western AEW&C and similar systems that works for Ukrainians.
Use of this USA systems greatly compensate for “guerrilla tactics” of Ukrainian IADS EMCON mode.
This is the war between USA and Russia so please do not try to play this down. War that will drag whole Europe into the conflict!
Ну вот пусть тогда Раша свои ракеты отправляет на "настоящего врага"... А нет... Кишка тонка
Sure, but the extend of informations shared (and latency) is not that clear. Especially because of constant fear of “escalation” in the west.
But the war is uppon us in Europe/West, whether you want it or not. There is now way going back now, major war is unleashing in the east with stakes high - survival of independent Ukraine (and sort of functional international rules) and survival of Kremlin cleptocracy (and their return to big powers influencing/controlling former Soviet areas in central/eastern).
You will have to take side...
Can you provide details on what exactly and how much of E-3-collected intel is NATO sharing with Ukraine in real time?
Mind: I do not know. And I'm not going to say I do. So, before I start guessing, I'll not talk about it.
And re. 'war between USA and Russia': oh, but sure. So, WTF is it fought in Ukraine? Why not in Chukotsk and the Bering Sea?
War will be fought across entire Europe... beyond Chukotsk and the Bering Sea.
Aha. You've got a crystal ball, too?
For one to see what is coming does not need a crystal ball, just a clear mind.
Yup. And the author here has no clear mind, as you've already concluded correctly. So, please, be so kind, do both of us a favour: go and waste somebody else's time with your conspiracy theories.
Agreed with Tom!
See you Tom on front line. You will be probably in fifth wave of mobilisation because of your age.
Do you Ukrainosaurus agree with this? That war will expand_
This is not a war. Nobody has declared war, so not sure what you are talking about here.
Just day 69X of a "3-day Special Military Operation". Nothing to see. Move on.
Mass murdering suits him/her better.
Well, I now declare war to you. Is it war?
I know its a war. Vic Orban, and other proRZ believe there is no war because nobody declare a war.
Orban also knows that it is war, but he wants to blackmail EU and to get money not only from putler but from Brussels also. The same with the other putler-fans.
The most stupid comment I've seen this month 💩
you may be right, hopefully this time the west is wiser than 1938 and doesn't appease the terrorist.
I didn't know Russia bombing Ukrainian maternity wards means they're fighting the USA.
This is a war between Ukraine and Russia, so please do not try to play on the side of Russian propagandists. A war that will drag all of Europe into conflict if the latter does not wake up!
Awful night for all country, but Charkiv suffered at most. I hope that no military object or SAM was hitted. And will you write about shotted Su 34. I personally believe that it was Patriot
It’s about time Ukraine hit the Olenya airbase using their long range drones in a mass attack. The TU95s are stored out in the open.
And a nice little diversionary attack on one of the naval submarine bases there wouldn’t go amiss either !
Way too far, unfortunately. Tu-22 bases seem to be a bit closer, but still difficult to reach.
Exactly. It gives effect because there were not any of Kalibre missle. Russian fleet was damaged and forced to move, that reduced its own efficiency. Actually Ukraine also have to produce more own accurate MLRS in order to destroy C300/400 on the Russian territory, because it is only way to effectively prevent launching of ballistic missiles
According to local news, there were no Kalibr-s launched. Looks like BS fleet keeps keeping out.
However, they say 5 Kinzhal-s were launched; probably they targeted Zaporizhya (not confirmed yet).
Thanks tom, I learn a lot from your knowledge, kind regards
Hi, Tom! You mentioned 157 in the update №1. In the update №2 90+8+5+14+5+36=158 One item has added. Did I understand correctly?
Typos:
- "Ukraine was back in Septembe,"
- "For example, like on 25 September this year ..." but the image has date 25 June 2023
Thank you for your analysis Tom.
Are there any estimations for how many of such waves the Russians saved up?
It seems that Russia used a lot of missiles, including some expensive ones, for no military advantage and no noticeable economic impact.
What is the impact - that's what we do not know. E.g. no one of 5 Kinzhal missiles has been shot down, so they hit they targets, but we do not know these targets (And my guess is these targets are precious. Even VSFR would not spent expensive Kinzhals to cheap targets.) If any missile or drone hit a military target, Ukrainians are silent about it. If they hit some critical infrastructure, we may get know later.
At least, Russians have more knowledge of Ukrainian IADS and PSU has less SAM missiles. I guess it is just a start of a longer Russian campaign (unfortunately).
In fact, Kinzals are not precise on big distances. I remember that 3 such missiles hitted my city, Kolomiya. They targeted airport on the vicinity of city, where was a graduation of pilots. Missiles weren't shot down, but there was only one victim -- a boy, who was killed in his own house in kilometer from the airport.
Secondly l, it is one case when Russians used 6 Kinzals to hit 6 transformers
So, it is not a fact that Kinzals hitted something
I wonder when Western authorities will get wise about the real danger from Putler's Russia. How much time will be needed to understand that small countries of northern Europe would be smashed by Russian missiles in few hours?
My fear is that they know, and that they provide Ukraine with just what is needed to hold the russians back, and then the russians spend all their personell and materiell on this war. The good thing will be that putler is going down with the ship, and russia will be weak for decades. The bad thing will be that it will cost a lot of Ukrainian lives....
Thank you for your sympathy. I have already noted in my comments that the USA evidently wants to manipulate with the course of this war but it is clear that the USA is not capable to do it. Moreover now we see that the USA is unable to control its own structures concerning the mainstreams of the foreign policy.
Enough to keep the Russians bleeding effectively. So that they can't do what you described.
While i agree with you, that western autorities know that this amount of help is not enough, I don't agree with copium about "bleeding russia". Thing is, russia is a very big country, biggest in the world. Around 140 million people, and if putin wants, eventually he will send all 140 millions to fight in war against Ukraine. russia keeps it's weapons and ammo production even now. Hell, it's even ramped it up in few times, being under sanctions. russian missiles still 80-90% made of western details, their other weapons still have tons of western equipment inside, and it's not gonna change until russia exists as state and won't be economically isolated from other world. And even after that, russia will be capable to fight in war for years.
By whatever reason, western autorities are fear that russia may lose war. Maybe they are fear that it willl start WWIII, maybe they fear that russia may breaks into smaller states and no-one knows who will put their hands on russian nukes, maybe they keep playing in "realpolitik" and waiting their term to ends, so russia will be another people's problem, or maybe they are waiting for putin's death. Whatever it is, it's definitely not some kind of super duper plan of bleeding russia. 2 years of full scale war was enough to understand that bleeding strategy won't work on russia at all. Ukraine will simply run out of people way faster than russia.
Some civil targets were hit because the targets of interest were in fact missed. I know 2 such cases definitely, maybe there are more. Some military targets were not hit notwithstanding numerous attacks. So Russian missiles are not so exact in fact.
Hey Tom, It has been a while since I read your "Assault Mode" series and therefore I might be missing some point here, but isn't that so that when the Ukrainian SAM system is activated (and thus detected/mapped by the Russians), it changes its position within minutes to avoid been struck? Therefore, the actual map of the SAM systems the Russians are monitoring is not up-to-date? Apparently, I must be wrong due to the very successful Russian attack. Thanks!
Yes, but that relocation is of operative nature. So, you drive into your next position which can be 500 metres away or a few kilometers. But that doesn't change the tactical picture of the map.
Reason for that is, that a radar or SAM has an objective of securing a certain area. Switching away from there by means of 10, 20 and even more kilometers would change the picture.
Thank you for the write up. Very hard times for Ukraine. The Russians are more resolute to destroy Ukraine than the West is in helping Ukraine. I hope Ukraine is scrapping from the bottom of the barrel to rebuild a strategic nuclear deterrent. Like scrapping from the bottomest pit to find and use anything for such an endeavour as clandestinely as they can.
Ukraine can make some old tactical nukes in about of few months. Have all knowledges, technologies and materials to do it, but it won't be exactly "deterrent". Rather just nuclear warheads for existing weapons. Have the same for strategical nukes too, but it will take few years to make them, and as some our officials said in different sources, something in between of 1 to 10 billions dollars for it. But making of either tactical or strategical nukes will immideatly down all western help to Ukraine to below zero.
Yes they should do it clandestinely as a multi year project. Agreed even if in the short term you can only get tactical nukes, you should work on it as soon as possible. The West isn't going to be there to protect you. If it wasn't for Ukrainian resistance, there wouldnt be a Ukrainian state. It wasnt Patriots, Abrams, F16s, NASAMs that stopped the invasion of Feb 2022.
There were three missile strikes on Kharkiv, at approximately: 5:00, 7:00 and 7:35. The strikes did not target energy infrastructure. Thank you, Tom, for the article. We look forward to your analyses on the front.
Well it appears Ukraine have struck back at military installations in and around Belgorod this evening ....