Ukraine War, 28 November 2024: Air/Missile War, 22-28 Nov.
Hello everybody!
Up front: an answer a question from a reader that arrived via e-mail: sorry, don’t know any ‘pro-Russian’ blog reporting about this war.
Sure, something like ‘once every 10-14 days’ I do a ‘run’ through the social media and check what’s up at different accounts, forums, or blogs (‘one can never know’).
I do not say there are none worth attention: however, I lack the time to read myself through the usual ‘chatter’ about nuking Berlin, London, Paris, and Mars; the 15th announcement of the destruction of 2,000, 6,000, 20,000 ‘Ukrainian nationalists’ in the Olgovska forest; or lectures about ‘moral obsolescence of NATO’ and similar. Therefore, I do not follow any of Russian- (or Ukrainian, or other) accounts, blogs, forums, podcasts or other social media presences. Already since the summer of 2022, the way I’m working (when it comes to this conflict) is to collect ‘pointers’ from a number of contacts, and then - as far as necessary (and possible; some of stuff I’m posting here is not reported anywhere at all) - ‘supporting’ these with links to this or that report in the social media (‘The World is small’, as they say).
Hope, that’s of some help.
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The topic today is that of Air/Missile Warfare - where I cannot but start with wondering about something I’ve mentioned at least in summer this year, if not earlier.
Yes, meanwhile there are some five or more of EU-member states that are financing several major projects for construction of arms and ammunition factories in Ukraine. However, because the mass of its politicians still dithering and paralysed by their own incompetence (which then leads to indecision), the EU has still not ramped up its own arms industry to the sufficient level. Because of this, it cannot provide the tools necessary to protect its own investments in Ukraine, nor the energy system necessary for their function. With other words: factories will be constructed, but their own safety, and the safety of the energy supply for their production are anything else than certain.
And even if it’s supplying something, it’s always ‘too little, too late’. For example: yes, The Netherlands has just delivered three M901 launchers for PAC-2/3 surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force (actually PSZSU; I’m abbreviating this with PSU). Canada supplied another NASAMS SAM-system. And somebody else scratched together an entire MIM-23 HAWK SAM-system and this was delivered to Ukraine via Poland this week (BTW, there are reports that MIM-23s are meanwhile making something like one third of PSU’s arsenal!). And yes, Germany is planning to deliver two IRIS-T SLM and SLS systems by the end of the year.
But… sigh… why only now, instead of already months ago?
And then, see such of glorious NATO-members like the Greeks: on a French initiative (what else: Macron & Co KG GesmbH SPA AG are still daydreaming about re-fighting the wars of 1918-1922), they’re donating their S-300PMU1s, Tor M1s, and Osa-AKs to Armenia.
What’s worse: the official explanation from Athens was that there was ‘too much pressure from opposition and the lack of initiative from Western allies’ - where at least the latter wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Why?
For exactly the same reason why NATO screwed up the Czech Arms Deal (for 2 million artillery shells), earlier this year: see, the owners and CEOs in charge of the ‘System NATO’ are still after profit, instead of being after actually helping Ukraine win the war against Pudding. And because the stuff of that kind is ‘too cheap’ in comparison to what NATO’s own defence sector might deliver… sometimes in the future (‘whenever that might happen, by NATO’ - is a trademark, meanwhile)… they’re blocking such deals.
…and that around the time a representative of the GenStab-U, Vadym Skibytsky reported that Russia accumulated over 200 Kh-101s and 300 Iskander-M missiles over the last few months…
…while German taxpayers are not even informed (by their glorious media, for example) that the Volkswagen paid €5 billion dividends to its shareholders, back in May, before, few months later, ‘realising’ it must shut down three factories and fire thousands, because it’s missing €4.5 billion… just like the Austrian taxpayers are never informed about the KTM going bankrupt after paying record-breaking dividends to its shareholders, earlier this year, but now being unable to pay its employees…
Read: it’s the very same policy of short-sighted profiteering and lies ruling every aspect of public life in ‘the West’ for decades already. The same politics that’s also making fantastic promises about curbing illegal immigration (caused by its own profiteering), about stopping industry from dumping millions of tons of toxines into the nature and on our food (caused by the industry bribing the politics), about replacing fossile- with renewable fuels (‘impossible’ because the fossile-fuel-industry said so), about countering ‘Asian competition’ (by bankrupting or selling own high-tech enterprises?) etc., etc., etc.
Of course, at least 2,5 out of all the 5,3 readers that might read this are now going to advise me not to digress, and stop rambling about the politics, but: there you have it, and like it or not, that’s the ‘System West’. The system exercising influence upon the flow, means, and forms of the air- and missile war between Russia and Ukraine, too (and then so much so: even camouflage colours and markings on involved aircraft, UAVs, missiles, and ground vehicles are de-facto dictated by the same).
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Another thingy before I go on: in addition to their ‘Geran-2s’ - which are copies of Iranian (ho-hum!) developed Shahed-136 - the Russians are meanwhile deploying large numbers of ‘their own’ Gerbera attack UAVs. Primarily made from components made in the PR China. So much so, the EU Parliament is now NOT going to impose economic sanctions against the PRC. Nope. That would be too damaging for business and profit. Instead, it’s going to impose additional sanctions against Russia…
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The week of air war covered in this resume began on 22 November, when Ukraine hit an unknown target in the Krasondar area by UAVs, while the Russians streamed 114 atttack UAVs over Ukraine. The glorious PSU claimed 64 as shot down, 51 as jammed, and results of other four as ‘unclear’. Arguably, I happen to know a few Ukrainians who are white-mad about ‘lies of the PSU’, meanwhile. But, hey: the Christmas Season is almost here, so why not simply buy yet more lies - though this time ‘made in Ukraine’?
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- 23 November
Ukraine deployed ATACMs to hit the 92N6E radar and two launchers of the S-400 SAM-system outside the village of Velyke Zhyrovo, in the Kursk Oblast (1490th Anti-Aircraft Defence Regiment), and something unknown in the Rostov-na-Donu area. As we’re going to see, the ZSU thus began ‘drilling a SAM-corridor’ inside the Russian airspace, to enable lots of follow-up attacks.
On the same morning, the Russians streamed 73 attack UAVs over Ukraine, PSU claimed 50 as shot down, 19 as jammed.
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- 25 November
Ukraine hit Kursk-Vostochny/Kalinovo AB with at least six, possibly eight ATACMs. Exact extent of damage remains unclear.
Furthermore, Ukrainian UAVs have struck air defence systems in the Kursk area, the Taifun Works (electrotechnics) and the Kaluganeftprodukt JSC oil depot in Kaluga (three or four tanks set on fire). The Russians reported that ‘the city’ was targeted by three UAVs, and that all three were shot down: alas, their wreckage then fell on the territory of an industrial facility causing severe fires…
Can’t but wonder: who in Russia is still buying this any more? Back in the 1980s, the Russians excelled in ‘reading between the lines’ of Soviet PRBS…
Russians streamed 145 attack UAVs over Ukraine, PSU claimed 71 as shot down and 71 as jammed (38 of these were re-routed to Belarus?). Additionally, during the day the Russians fired 2 Iskander-Ms: units of the Southern Command PSU claimed one as shot down, together with 5 UAVs.
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- 26 November
Ukrainian UAVs hit Rostov-na-Donu (probably targeting air defence systems), and the oil- and gas-installation in Salavat (Bashkiria), about 1,200km from Ukraine.
Russians streamed 188 UAVs over Ukraine, plus 4 Iskander-Ms. The PSU claimed 76 UAVs as shot down and 95 as jammed. At the same time, the PSU failed to shot down four Iskander-Ms.
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- 27 November
About 40 Ukrainian UAVs, followed by S-200 SAMs (fired in surface-to-surface mode) and Storm Shadow air-to-ground missiles have targeted the Belbek AB, in the occupied Crimea. Apparently, it was during this attack, that a Russian 48Ya6-K1 Podlet radar was knocked out (photo below for orientation purposes). According to the Russians, 10 Ukrainian UAVs were shot down over the Rostov-na-Donu area, too.
Russians streamed a total of 89 attack UAVs from the Primorsko-Akhtarsk area into Ukraine. These were followed by 85 Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles, 3 Kh-59/69 PGMs, and 3 S-300 or BM-30s. The PSU claimed 76 cruise missiles, all three PGMs, and 48 attack UAVs as shot down (another 62 were jammed, so says the PSU, including five that flew back to Russia).
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- 28 November
Keystone Cops in Moscow claim to have repelled an Ukrainian strike and shot down 25 UAVs: 14 in the Krasnodar Krai, 6 over Bryansk, 3 over Crimea, and 2 over Rostov.
According to the Ukrainian sources, the Russians have released a total of about 120 cruise missiles, 90 Shahed & attack UAVs - which would make this the biggest missile strike on Ukraine so far.
The PSU claimed to have shot down 76 cruise missiles, 3 Kh-59/69, and 35 UAVs, and indeed: lots of photos like the following ones are meanwhile making circles in the Ukrainian social media.
However, many of cruise missiles were equipped with cluster warheads, which is why disarming and clearing even their debris is going to be a problem for days longer. Moreover, a number of them have found their mark: in words of the Ukrainian Energy Minister, this was a ‘massive blow’. Known to have been targeted were Lutsk, Volyn, Sumy, Kharkiv, and in the Odesa oblast, the Usatove substation was hit.
In turn, the troops of the 14th Mech have knocked out a Russian Tor SAM-system.
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Bottom line: nothing really ‘unexpected’. The Ukrainians are targeting Russian air defences, air bases, and oil depots, the Russians are ‘retaliating’ against the Ukrainian energy sector, trying to make ‘normal’, organised public life in Ukraine impossible.
Sure, for us here in ‘the West’, this is ‘unfair’. For the Ukrainians, this is nothing else than barbaric, because many of them - especially poorer Ukrainians, people who can’t afford buying power generators to keep themselves warm this winter - are going to freeze this winter, and that’s little else but barbaric.
However, please mind, dear ‘Westerners’: considering they’ve managed something similar with millions of civilians living in insurgent-controlled parts of Syria, back in 2015-2016 - i.e. that ‘the West’ has left them massacre thousands, and ethnically cleanse millions in exactly the same fashion (in turn ‘creating that refugee crisis’), years ago, thus letting the Russians have something like a ‘precedent’ - who can blame them?
Yes Syria 10 years ago was an early test of Western resolve. Failed test spectacular. Not only did Putin secure Russia's place in the Middle East, but as a bonus, was able to inflict damage to Europe social structure with the flood of refugees resultant, possibly the first take on “hybrid” warfare.
As a Greek, reading that the government plans to donate all these missiles to Armenia left me speechless.
And the opposition can shout all they want, but they are a minority in the parliament.