Good morning everybody! Sorry for all the chaos regarding this update: was disturbed and clicked on ‘upload’ before it was ready. Still cleaning different issues, and adding details as I go. *** The (non-elected, rather ‘selected by oligarchy’) President of the EU Commission, and then the (elected… though no idea by whom) Prime Ministers of Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, and Italy, have all visited Kyiv, the last few days. Thanks whomever, they were then joined by the ex-British prime minister, too…
Somewhere I saw that Bulgaria will supply 100,000 122mm shells until the Czech president & Co finalize the purchase of 800,000 shells for Ukraine. But would the 122mm shells be of real help to Ukraine? Isn’t the bulk of its artillery already 155mm? Would ZSU take out the old D-30 howitzers to use them …
Really, I'm so fed up of all of such promises and pledges, I'm completely ignoring them: who cares what is going to be delivered in 'April 2024', 'by the end of 2024', in 2027, or 2028?
Nothing matters but what is in Ukraine already now: the ZSU can't fight with what it might receive in few weeks, months, or years.
And nope: the bulk of the ZSU's artillery is still of calibres 122mm and 152mm. Just because NATO has delivered few dozens of M777s, PzH2000, Caesars, Archers and similar stuff, this doesn't mean this is now all the Ukrainian artillery.
And even if: what's the worth of all of them, if there is NO ammunition calibre 155mm around?
With other words: yes, D-30 is still the most numerous artillery piece in the ZSU.
Bulgarian deliveries seem to be regular and on time. Usually the problem is money, but recently there was sabotage and the UK ship that was sunk by the Houthis destination was Bulgarian, the cargo is still unknown.
Had the Houthis hit a ship carrying ammo for Ukraine - there would be nothing left of that ship to talk about. Should there be any doubts: check Youtube, there are few videos showing what happens when an ammunition ship is hit.
Besides, that itch in my small toe is telling me that the shortest route from Bulgaria to Ukraine is not leading through the Red Sea...
I believe Ukraine produces and buys/is donated 122mm shells thus the old howitzers are around, and should be there is large quantities. They were not widely used exactly because of the deficit of 122mm shells.
The 155mm howitzers were told to have lost their precision to barrel wear out, thus the ones used since 2022 are not much better than the 122 mm.
These press releases present a very skewed perspective. this one is apparently about Germany ordering 120,000 122mm shells to be manufactured by a Bulgarian factory and delivered to Ukraine.
But the reality is that while 122mm and 152mm is what Ukraine needs the most, factories for them are a relic from the Soviet past. There's a limited number of them and they work non-stop. The production does not increase or decrease, and the amount delivered to the frontline is constant. Only the client name in the contract changes - at one point it's the US, at another point it's Germany, or Ukraine itself, ect... But it's all coming out from the same Bulgarian factory, in the same amount.
The feeling of changing amounts is due to occasionally large stockpiles being released somewhere (including from Bulgaria which happened to have large stockpiles too), creating a huge temporary inflow, followed by a deficiency when the inflow stops and deliveries normalize to their low production capacity. But the probability of new stockpiles being released at this point, if they haven't been already, is close to zero.
On the positive side, the same principle applies to Russia - they have a fixed number of factories, with a fixed number of industrial machines in them. Their production capacity is much higher than Bulgaria's but it's just as static - I'd be shocked if new machines for 152mm/122mm production can still be created by anyone. While western-style 155mm production can be increased, it just takes lots of money being invested with lots of foresight - and the latter seems to have been more deficient than artillery shells 1-1.5 years ago, when was the time to act to prevent the current situation.
I'd be wondering how much of that is fact, and how much of that is rumor. It's theoretically possible that there's a sufficient leftover Soviet machine tools around the world. It's also possible that all of these countires have managed to organize fast to create or reopen production. It's also possible that they have secured a supply of steel and chemicals. And found financing in their budget for these projects.
It's not impossible. It's just much harder to do it than to make people believe they did it. And in the short term it does not matter if you have a factory or you've convinced your enemy you have a factory, if all you're trying to do is convince Ukraine, the EU or the US that you're unbeatable and there's no point in going on.
It's not about what they want but what they're capable of. Practically for Iran and NK the only way to expand production of anything is if it's China doing it and using them as proxies for deniability. That goes for ammo, "Iranian" drones, ect. For Belarus it's more plausible that they'd have some old Soviet ammo factory that was working under capacity previously.
Iran(?) and NK had their own ammo factories (Russians don't like the quality of the NK ammo, thus the NK ammo exists) but NK never used the produced ammo. Thus they had little sense to run the production at full capacity. Now they have.
Tom explained previously that the Iranian drones are a Chinese design, that China helped Iran set up the factory, and China might be supplying parts for the drones. It’s a way for China to support Russia while avoiding sanctions.
Thanks for the information. First of all, how is it possible to deploy c 200 close to the front if it is much more immobile than the Patriot or C 300?
Secondly, is it any way to destroy bm 30?
Thirdly, what is overall situation in drone war in Ukraine because as I see ZSU started to deploy more FPV than before even if it is not from good life
For an operation of this kind (downing of that A-50), one needs not moving the entire S-200 SAM-site, but 2-3 launchers, and power supply. Targeting info and guidance can come from whatever other system.
Yes, there are ways to hit BM-30s and they have already been hit (check the Oryx blog for details).
Yes, have seen some statistics indicating that the ZSU is ahead of the Russians in deploying FPVs. Me thinks, is primarily created by the fact that Ukrainians are publishing many more videos than the Russians do.
John Ridge is no expert. He later on claimed he knew it was an S-200 because he said there was a 10% it would be an S-200. After he said he was completely certain they shot down their own A-50.
I think he ignores the possibility here of that Russian SAM launch being in response to whatever was targeting the A50 at the time. The real turn of events is not completely clear from the released videos.
And the big question - why would the A50 do such a dive below the radar horizon? If friendlies targeted it then it lit up complete Russian IADS around Krasnodar, only to dive against a SAM launch to be then finished by a BUK. How can that be possible for an AEW aircraft running pre-planned orbits in the deep rear?
We can all laugh about Russian incompetence or point to a lack of coordination between VKS and VS air defence. Still, it seems that a series of extraordinarily bizarre events would need to conspire for that friendly fire claim to become true. On the other side, you have S200 missiles with the range and capability to do the kill.
Yes, as Andrew Perpetua and Don pointed out: the Russians use drones to systemically destroy defense structures - houses, fortifications, etc. (so what is the point of publishing one and the same video) while ZSU uses them to destroy moving targets - so they have lots of videos of burning tanks and IFVs… and this matches the tactics of each army
I don't know how reliable it is but it shows increase of ZSU strikes on positions and infantry too, whereas ratio of total usage is slightly in ZSU favor. At least there is not predicted 1 to 6-8 FPV ratio in Russian favor
ZSU uses privately produced FPVs to hunt soldiers and vehicles. Logic is: 1 FPV costs USD500-2000, success ratio is about 25%. One soldier costs around USD 130k incl death pay outs, pension for invalidity etc; one vehicle costs definitively USD 30k+.
So, cost-effectivity ratio is perfect.
Ru are more concentrated on powerful FPVs, state produced mostly. So, they are expensive, carry more explosives and used for fortification demount mostly. In other words: offensive is more about fortification destruction, deffensive is more about infantry and vehicles knock-outs
Well, visiting Kyiv is better than not visiting Kyiv. But the incompetence of the European governments is fully demonstrated in Poland where Sikorsky appeals to USA for help while the farmers do every possible harm to Ukraine.
They're just wasting time with something they could've done online, too. Babbling, babbling, and more babbling: 'doing something' - instead of taking care to ship ammo, urgently.
Tom, you have to understand. Macron had a rough week-end. His visit to the yearly French agriciulture-event went badly. Instead of nice pictures, he was forced to hid next to the WC then spent the remaining day blabbering to death two of his deputies pretending to be farmers.
So he was very frustrated and had to blow some steam steam by throwing one of his pseudo polemical hot takes. He likes how everyone reacts with shock when he does so. Yes, he is such a child.
Meanwhile, the dubious contract with French company Verney-Carron to produce 10 000 ARs copy, 2 000 DMRs and 400 MGL has run into trouble. Namely the company has not received any of the French funding. Maybe a coincidence : an Ukrainian delegation had just visited the manufacture.
Also, the scheme to produce 50 000 / 60 000 shell casing at Forges de Tarbes is failing as well. The workers are on a strike to protest over the lack of investment, degrading work conditions and salaries. First among the two dozens workers' grievance is company failing to do the investment it promised when it bought the site on the cheap.
No surprise in both affairs. Verney-Carron has never produced small arms weapons in quantity. As for Forge de Tarbes, the whole thing had the smell of the usual kleptocracy. A bankrupted site is brought on the cheap through judicial liquidation by a dubious investor seeking to make easy money on state contracts.
Good morning Tom, it seems that the delivery of Gripen to Ukraine would have more support, that would be good news for the PAU, Greetings and thank you for the update
Even if Sweden decided to sell Gripens to Ukraine tomorrow, it would need at least one year for delivery and one year for training in these jets. Maybe if Ukraine got used Gripens from Swedish air force (which would replace them with the latest model), but even that would mean some months before delivery (and then there's the matter of maintenance personnel).
This should've been done two years ago, not tomorrow.
And I forgot to add that exporting Gripens to Ukraine (or any other country) would need USA permits for export of the turbojet engine and other stuff (which is US-made). That would mean additional months of delay within the USA bureaucracy.
And there may be additional legal wrangles. Not fun when time is pressing...
I understand myself not as an 'activist', but as an 'analyst'. And analysts are supposed to remain cool, distanced, even calculated and whatever... But, there are times when one shouldn't hold back (especially when most of us are as saddled by incompetent governments as we are, right now).
Back on 6 February, and via my Facebook-account, we've launched a collection aimed to enable the 3rd Special Purpose Regiment of the SSR - one of crack Ukrainian special forces units - to get a Shark reconnaissance UAV.
As mentioned back then: this is a very advanced- and very complex piece of equipment, with an encrypted communication system, and an excellent range. Indeed, it's so complex that a single system comes together with guidance equipment installed on a purposely-made vehicle.
Price tag of each Shark UAV system is at €47,000 - 51,000.
People at the 3rd Regiment SSO are quite certain they can collect about a fifth of this from their own pockets (which is how Ukrainian troops are financing about 50% of their UAVs), but need help with the rest. Thus, they've asked if there is a way to help them...
Please mind: sure, they're fighting for Ukraine, first and foremost. But, they're also fighting for you and for me: indeed, so we can all remain free, instead of getting silenced by Pudding and his henchmen.
We've meanwhile collected over €10,000 and I would like to thank everybody for their donations!
There are still about 25,000 to go.
Thus, and after consulting a few people who know (to make sure it's safe to post this kind of details 'in open'), here all the options:
***
For US$:
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
SWIFT: PBANUA2X
IBAN Code: UA503052990000026005045103261
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Beneficiary: CHARITABLE DONATION FOR A SHARK
***
For €:
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
SWIFT: PBANUA2X
IBAN Code: UA373052990000026005025106266
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Beneficiary: CHARITABLE DONATION FOR A SHARK
***
For PLN:
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
SWIFT: PBANUA2X
IBAN: UA483052990000026003025104099
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Beneficiary: CHARITABLE DONATION FOR A SHARK
***
For UAH
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
ЄДРПОУ: 44698121
IBAN: 𝗨𝗔𝟳𝟭𝟯𝟬𝟱𝟮𝟵𝟵𝟬𝟬𝟬𝟬𝟬𝟮𝟲𝟬𝟬𝟲𝟬𝟬𝟱𝟭𝟬𝟱𝟬𝟵𝟯
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Thanks for posting this. I guess PayPal is the best way to do direct donations - I've tried using my card on the major platforms like United24 but it never works for some mysterious reason. No error given, just always fails. Annoying.
My idiot ruscist brother-in-law can move his family from the US to Rostov-on-Don, taking their electronics and savings with them, but I have to find workarounds to donate to Ukraine.
This pathetic "democracy" can't collapse soon enough. United States of Absurdity indeed. My grandparents didn't fight fascism for this bullshit.
I think there was typo,, you surely mean"...with fields east of either village rapidly filling with charred remains of armoured vehicles and hundreds of corpses of CUDDLED ORCS"
As a Belgian citizen I can state that our Prime Minister De Croo is indeed a specialist in selling a lot of blablabla and hardly ever acting on it. He stated that Europe should and can do more…but nobody asked him : “what is keeping you from doing more”. As said he is full of bla bla, but not of boem boem.
Actually while no polititian would refuse positive press this seems to be Zelenski's initiative. He seems to be keen on signing symbolic bilateral security agreements. Which I guess are slighly less useful than a roll of toilet paper but slightly more useful than a western leader verbally announcing to "support Ukraine no matter what". So I guess he's figured it's better than having nothing, and the positive press from these is valid on his side too.
You might be unfair to the President of the EU Commission. Sure, it's not a direct democracy, but still better than most of the world (even the UK). The Commission President is elected by the European Parliament, following the European elections and we do elect the parliament.
That's correct. The Commission President is proposed by the European Council, which is, as you said, made up of the heads of state or government of all EU countries. So, there is no problem with democracy.
The way I see it: there is. Because the President of the Commission is thus appointed by a compromise between 'leaders' - who are all known as deeply corrupt - instead through a direct election.
EMacron never said Nato was surplus. He said it was brain dead and clarified " NATO only works if the guarantor of last resort functions as such. I’d argue that we should reassess the reality of what NATO is in the light of the commitment of the United States.”
Quite frankly, with Trump 1 and even more with the risk of Trump 2 and the current attitude of the GOP in Congress, it's time for Europe to try to move beyond an economic alliance and toward a strategic alliance.
It will be difficult, of the 100 billions euros spent by Europe from feb22 to mid 23, 63% has been spent on US made equipment.
NATO operates on trust. Trust that the "guarantor of last resort" (read: USA) will be able and willing to go ahead and fight anyone who attacks the defense alliance (hence, the requirement for US troops stationed in Europe and hot zones - to not let USA avoid their commitments, by having token American troops in the line of fire).
If we get again a loose cannon (Trump 2), all bets are off. When you are openly saying "I don't care about you, slackers, the Russia can attack you", this trust-based hegemony is on the verge of collapse. An unreliable hegemony is a very dangerous thing, as I expect the MAGA Republicans to learn soon.
Thanks Tom, lots of action going on, I sure hope the west can get it but in gear and get artillary ammo to the UAF shortly, hoping the UAF got another SU aircraft
"92nd Airborne (former 92nd Mech)" - Assault, not Airborne
Thanks Tom!
Somewhere I saw that Bulgaria will supply 100,000 122mm shells until the Czech president & Co finalize the purchase of 800,000 shells for Ukraine. But would the 122mm shells be of real help to Ukraine? Isn’t the bulk of its artillery already 155mm? Would ZSU take out the old D-30 howitzers to use them …
The question is WHEN.
Really, I'm so fed up of all of such promises and pledges, I'm completely ignoring them: who cares what is going to be delivered in 'April 2024', 'by the end of 2024', in 2027, or 2028?
Nothing matters but what is in Ukraine already now: the ZSU can't fight with what it might receive in few weeks, months, or years.
And nope: the bulk of the ZSU's artillery is still of calibres 122mm and 152mm. Just because NATO has delivered few dozens of M777s, PzH2000, Caesars, Archers and similar stuff, this doesn't mean this is now all the Ukrainian artillery.
And even if: what's the worth of all of them, if there is NO ammunition calibre 155mm around?
With other words: yes, D-30 is still the most numerous artillery piece in the ZSU.
Bulgarian deliveries seem to be regular and on time. Usually the problem is money, but recently there was sabotage and the UK ship that was sunk by the Houthis destination was Bulgarian, the cargo is still unknown.
Had the Houthis hit a ship carrying ammo for Ukraine - there would be nothing left of that ship to talk about. Should there be any doubts: check Youtube, there are few videos showing what happens when an ammunition ship is hit.
Besides, that itch in my small toe is telling me that the shortest route from Bulgaria to Ukraine is not leading through the Red Sea...
You need resources to produce shells.
Like a ship full of loose gunpowder or so? Sure....
If you're referring to the Rubymar, cargo is fertiliser:
https://youtu.be/uTF4N_eFii0?t=70
I believe Ukraine produces and buys/is donated 122mm shells thus the old howitzers are around, and should be there is large quantities. They were not widely used exactly because of the deficit of 122mm shells.
The 155mm howitzers were told to have lost their precision to barrel wear out, thus the ones used since 2022 are not much better than the 122 mm.
These press releases present a very skewed perspective. this one is apparently about Germany ordering 120,000 122mm shells to be manufactured by a Bulgarian factory and delivered to Ukraine.
But the reality is that while 122mm and 152mm is what Ukraine needs the most, factories for them are a relic from the Soviet past. There's a limited number of them and they work non-stop. The production does not increase or decrease, and the amount delivered to the frontline is constant. Only the client name in the contract changes - at one point it's the US, at another point it's Germany, or Ukraine itself, ect... But it's all coming out from the same Bulgarian factory, in the same amount.
The feeling of changing amounts is due to occasionally large stockpiles being released somewhere (including from Bulgaria which happened to have large stockpiles too), creating a huge temporary inflow, followed by a deficiency when the inflow stops and deliveries normalize to their low production capacity. But the probability of new stockpiles being released at this point, if they haven't been already, is close to zero.
On the positive side, the same principle applies to Russia - they have a fixed number of factories, with a fixed number of industrial machines in them. Their production capacity is much higher than Bulgaria's but it's just as static - I'd be shocked if new machines for 152mm/122mm production can still be created by anyone. While western-style 155mm production can be increased, it just takes lots of money being invested with lots of foresight - and the latter seems to have been more deficient than artillery shells 1-1.5 years ago, when was the time to act to prevent the current situation.
It is said that Belarusian factories increase their production output. Iran and Korea may probably build new factories or work 24/7.
I'd be wondering how much of that is fact, and how much of that is rumor. It's theoretically possible that there's a sufficient leftover Soviet machine tools around the world. It's also possible that all of these countires have managed to organize fast to create or reopen production. It's also possible that they have secured a supply of steel and chemicals. And found financing in their budget for these projects.
It's not impossible. It's just much harder to do it than to make people believe they did it. And in the short term it does not matter if you have a factory or you've convinced your enemy you have a factory, if all you're trying to do is convince Ukraine, the EU or the US that you're unbeatable and there's no point in going on.
All of them need money. Russia has a store of gold (as its dollars and euros were frozen). Gold is convertible to money.
Iran and NK want military tech. Russia got the tech for advanced nukes, airplanes and satellites.
Lukashenko (Belarus) depends on Putin for anti-insurgency support as his police was not enough in 2020.
Thus I don't see any reason for any of the three not to increase the production of whatever goods Russia buys.
It's not about what they want but what they're capable of. Practically for Iran and NK the only way to expand production of anything is if it's China doing it and using them as proxies for deniability. That goes for ammo, "Iranian" drones, ect. For Belarus it's more plausible that they'd have some old Soviet ammo factory that was working under capacity previously.
Iran(?) and NK had their own ammo factories (Russians don't like the quality of the NK ammo, thus the NK ammo exists) but NK never used the produced ammo. Thus they had little sense to run the production at full capacity. Now they have.
Tom explained previously that the Iranian drones are a Chinese design, that China helped Iran set up the factory, and China might be supplying parts for the drones. It’s a way for China to support Russia while avoiding sanctions.
Thanks for the information. First of all, how is it possible to deploy c 200 close to the front if it is much more immobile than the Patriot or C 300?
Secondly, is it any way to destroy bm 30?
Thirdly, what is overall situation in drone war in Ukraine because as I see ZSU started to deploy more FPV than before even if it is not from good life
For an operation of this kind (downing of that A-50), one needs not moving the entire S-200 SAM-site, but 2-3 launchers, and power supply. Targeting info and guidance can come from whatever other system.
Yes, there are ways to hit BM-30s and they have already been hit (check the Oryx blog for details).
Yes, have seen some statistics indicating that the ZSU is ahead of the Russians in deploying FPVs. Me thinks, is primarily created by the fact that Ukrainians are publishing many more videos than the Russians do.
The latest A-50 downing was a red on red, Buk M3 kill: https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1761649562849001941
John Ridge is no expert. He later on claimed he knew it was an S-200 because he said there was a 10% it would be an S-200. After he said he was completely certain they shot down their own A-50.
I think he ignores the possibility here of that Russian SAM launch being in response to whatever was targeting the A50 at the time. The real turn of events is not completely clear from the released videos.
And the big question - why would the A50 do such a dive below the radar horizon? If friendlies targeted it then it lit up complete Russian IADS around Krasnodar, only to dive against a SAM launch to be then finished by a BUK. How can that be possible for an AEW aircraft running pre-planned orbits in the deep rear?
We can all laugh about Russian incompetence or point to a lack of coordination between VKS and VS air defence. Still, it seems that a series of extraordinarily bizarre events would need to conspire for that friendly fire claim to become true. On the other side, you have S200 missiles with the range and capability to do the kill.
Indeed: the A-50 turned into and dove towards the Buk.
Sorry, but the version about 'own goal' is simply making no sense.
Sure, eventually: it doesn't even matter. The A-50 is down. But still, all these fantasies...
Hi Tom. Any evidence of 10 downed planes claimed by Ukraine? Do Russians use COSPAs/ radio beacons on their military jets-?
https://t.me/grey_zone had a couple of posts during the last week.
Yes, there's evidence for at least some 4-5. More is to follow - but it often takes months for the Russians to find bodies and then bury them.
Yes, as Andrew Perpetua and Don pointed out: the Russians use drones to systemically destroy defense structures - houses, fortifications, etc. (so what is the point of publishing one and the same video) while ZSU uses them to destroy moving targets - so they have lots of videos of burning tanks and IFVs… and this matches the tactics of each army
https://twitter.com/HartreeFock/status/1761175119378907314
I don't know how reliable it is but it shows increase of ZSU strikes on positions and infantry too, whereas ratio of total usage is slightly in ZSU favor. At least there is not predicted 1 to 6-8 FPV ratio in Russian favor
ZSU uses privately produced FPVs to hunt soldiers and vehicles. Logic is: 1 FPV costs USD500-2000, success ratio is about 25%. One soldier costs around USD 130k incl death pay outs, pension for invalidity etc; one vehicle costs definitively USD 30k+.
So, cost-effectivity ratio is perfect.
Ru are more concentrated on powerful FPVs, state produced mostly. So, they are expensive, carry more explosives and used for fortification demount mostly. In other words: offensive is more about fortification destruction, deffensive is more about infantry and vehicles knock-outs
The Russians also use Lancets with up to 70km range
Counterbattery seems to be the most effective use for those.
They can kill whatever rare assets they see, including AD and airplanes.
Lancets are produced in 100s, light FPVs - in 10000s. Have never seen a Lancet hitting a truck or a Jeep: mostly tanks, artillery, GMLRS
Well, visiting Kyiv is better than not visiting Kyiv. But the incompetence of the European governments is fully demonstrated in Poland where Sikorsky appeals to USA for help while the farmers do every possible harm to Ukraine.
They're just wasting time with something they could've done online, too. Babbling, babbling, and more babbling: 'doing something' - instead of taking care to ship ammo, urgently.
I agree with you. But everybody is his own best friend (the musical "Chicago") and the politicians must appear on TV as often as possible.
Thanks for the update, very tough situation for Ukraine.
Tom, you have to understand. Macron had a rough week-end. His visit to the yearly French agriciulture-event went badly. Instead of nice pictures, he was forced to hid next to the WC then spent the remaining day blabbering to death two of his deputies pretending to be farmers.
So he was very frustrated and had to blow some steam steam by throwing one of his pseudo polemical hot takes. He likes how everyone reacts with shock when he does so. Yes, he is such a child.
Meanwhile, the dubious contract with French company Verney-Carron to produce 10 000 ARs copy, 2 000 DMRs and 400 MGL has run into trouble. Namely the company has not received any of the French funding. Maybe a coincidence : an Ukrainian delegation had just visited the manufacture.
https://region-aura.latribune.fr/strategie/industrie/2024-02-20/militaire-verney-carron-ne-peut-toujours-pas-lancer-la-production-des-12-000-fusils-destines-a-l-ukraine-990960.html
Also, the scheme to produce 50 000 / 60 000 shell casing at Forges de Tarbes is failing as well. The workers are on a strike to protest over the lack of investment, degrading work conditions and salaries. First among the two dozens workers' grievance is company failing to do the investment it promised when it bought the site on the cheap.
https://www.francebleu.fr/infos/economie-social/mouvement-de-greve-aux-forges-de-tarbes-un-debrayage-pour-denoncer-une-degradation-des-conditions-de-travail-1233741
No surprise in both affairs. Verney-Carron has never produced small arms weapons in quantity. As for Forge de Tarbes, the whole thing had the smell of the usual kleptocracy. A bankrupted site is brought on the cheap through judicial liquidation by a dubious investor seeking to make easy money on state contracts.
Makes everything clear, thanks a lot!
Quite disappointing, I have to admit, after all big words and promises for sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Tell about an own goal...
Good morning Tom, it seems that the delivery of Gripen to Ukraine would have more support, that would be good news for the PAU, Greetings and thank you for the update
Even if Sweden decided to sell Gripens to Ukraine tomorrow, it would need at least one year for delivery and one year for training in these jets. Maybe if Ukraine got used Gripens from Swedish air force (which would replace them with the latest model), but even that would mean some months before delivery (and then there's the matter of maintenance personnel).
This should've been done two years ago, not tomorrow.
Hi Nick, I completely agree, Regards . .
And I forgot to add that exporting Gripens to Ukraine (or any other country) would need USA permits for export of the turbojet engine and other stuff (which is US-made). That would mean additional months of delay within the USA bureaucracy.
And there may be additional legal wrangles. Not fun when time is pressing...
Good point to consider . .
An 'usual add-on', if you like...
I understand myself not as an 'activist', but as an 'analyst'. And analysts are supposed to remain cool, distanced, even calculated and whatever... But, there are times when one shouldn't hold back (especially when most of us are as saddled by incompetent governments as we are, right now).
Back on 6 February, and via my Facebook-account, we've launched a collection aimed to enable the 3rd Special Purpose Regiment of the SSR - one of crack Ukrainian special forces units - to get a Shark reconnaissance UAV.
As mentioned back then: this is a very advanced- and very complex piece of equipment, with an encrypted communication system, and an excellent range. Indeed, it's so complex that a single system comes together with guidance equipment installed on a purposely-made vehicle.
Price tag of each Shark UAV system is at €47,000 - 51,000.
People at the 3rd Regiment SSO are quite certain they can collect about a fifth of this from their own pockets (which is how Ukrainian troops are financing about 50% of their UAVs), but need help with the rest. Thus, they've asked if there is a way to help them...
Please mind: sure, they're fighting for Ukraine, first and foremost. But, they're also fighting for you and for me: indeed, so we can all remain free, instead of getting silenced by Pudding and his henchmen.
We've meanwhile collected over €10,000 and I would like to thank everybody for their donations!
There are still about 25,000 to go.
Thus, and after consulting a few people who know (to make sure it's safe to post this kind of details 'in open'), here all the options:
***
For US$:
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
SWIFT: PBANUA2X
IBAN Code: UA503052990000026005045103261
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Beneficiary: CHARITABLE DONATION FOR A SHARK
***
For €:
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
SWIFT: PBANUA2X
IBAN Code: UA373052990000026005025106266
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Beneficiary: CHARITABLE DONATION FOR A SHARK
***
For PLN:
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
SWIFT: PBANUA2X
IBAN: UA483052990000026003025104099
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Beneficiary: CHARITABLE DONATION FOR A SHARK
***
For UAH
Company Name: CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION CHARITY FUND OF REGIMENT SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO
Bank: JSC CB "PRIVATBANK",
1D HRUSHEVSKOHO STR.,
KYIV, 01001,
UKRAINE
ЄДРПОУ: 44698121
IBAN: 𝗨𝗔𝟳𝟭𝟯𝟬𝟱𝟮𝟵𝟵𝟬𝟬𝟬𝟬𝟬𝟮𝟲𝟬𝟬𝟲𝟬𝟬𝟱𝟭𝟬𝟱𝟬𝟵𝟯
Company address: 3D SVIATOSLAVA KHOROBROGO STR., KROPYVNYTSKYI, 25009, UKRAINE
Beneficiary: CHARITABLE DONATION FOR A SHARK
***
PayPal: fund.450@gmail.com
Purpose: ‘For Shark’
***
Every cent counts: thus, even if you can offer just a minimal donation - it's most welcome. Lets get this Shark!
Thanks for posting this. I guess PayPal is the best way to do direct donations - I've tried using my card on the major platforms like United24 but it never works for some mysterious reason. No error given, just always fails. Annoying.
My idiot ruscist brother-in-law can move his family from the US to Rostov-on-Don, taking their electronics and savings with them, but I have to find workarounds to donate to Ukraine.
This pathetic "democracy" can't collapse soon enough. United States of Absurdity indeed. My grandparents didn't fight fascism for this bullshit.
Yes, from what I can say, PayPal works the best.
Donation sent 🫸🏼🫷🏼
I think there was typo,, you surely mean"...with fields east of either village rapidly filling with charred remains of armoured vehicles and hundreds of corpses of CUDDLED ORCS"
CUDDLED... of course! I knew something's missing in this update...
As a Belgian citizen I can state that our Prime Minister De Croo is indeed a specialist in selling a lot of blablabla and hardly ever acting on it. He stated that Europe should and can do more…but nobody asked him : “what is keeping you from doing more”. As said he is full of bla bla, but not of boem boem.
Actually while no polititian would refuse positive press this seems to be Zelenski's initiative. He seems to be keen on signing symbolic bilateral security agreements. Which I guess are slighly less useful than a roll of toilet paper but slightly more useful than a western leader verbally announcing to "support Ukraine no matter what". So I guess he's figured it's better than having nothing, and the positive press from these is valid on his side too.
You might be unfair to the President of the EU Commission. Sure, it's not a direct democracy, but still better than most of the world (even the UK). The Commission President is elected by the European Parliament, following the European elections and we do elect the parliament.
The Commission President is arranged by chancellors, prime ministers, and presidents, and then 'confirmed' by the parliament.
That's correct. The Commission President is proposed by the European Council, which is, as you said, made up of the heads of state or government of all EU countries. So, there is no problem with democracy.
The way I see it: there is. Because the President of the Commission is thus appointed by a compromise between 'leaders' - who are all known as deeply corrupt - instead through a direct election.
NATO troops at the UA-BY border is an excellent idea, IMHO.
Poles might as well use all the equipment they have accumulated instead of letting it stay idle
EMacron never said Nato was surplus. He said it was brain dead and clarified " NATO only works if the guarantor of last resort functions as such. I’d argue that we should reassess the reality of what NATO is in the light of the commitment of the United States.”
Quite frankly, with Trump 1 and even more with the risk of Trump 2 and the current attitude of the GOP in Congress, it's time for Europe to try to move beyond an economic alliance and toward a strategic alliance.
It will be difficult, of the 100 billions euros spent by Europe from feb22 to mid 23, 63% has been spent on US made equipment.
NATO operates on trust. Trust that the "guarantor of last resort" (read: USA) will be able and willing to go ahead and fight anyone who attacks the defense alliance (hence, the requirement for US troops stationed in Europe and hot zones - to not let USA avoid their commitments, by having token American troops in the line of fire).
If we get again a loose cannon (Trump 2), all bets are off. When you are openly saying "I don't care about you, slackers, the Russia can attack you", this trust-based hegemony is on the verge of collapse. An unreliable hegemony is a very dangerous thing, as I expect the MAGA Republicans to learn soon.
It`s good that you are back on regular reporting. I missed your articles.
Thanks Tom, lots of action going on, I sure hope the west can get it but in gear and get artillary ammo to the UAF shortly, hoping the UAF got another SU aircraft