Ukraine War, 27 June 2024: Silly Season, Part 2

Good evening everybody!

OK, now lets start with the ‘more interesting’ part of today’s ‘review’. Where… well, actually it’s so that the last few days it was the Russian Air-Space Force (VKS) and the Ukrainian Air Force and Air Defence Force (PSZSU, but I’m usually abbreviating it to PSU) were the branches that were dominating the scene.

Indeed, because of this, much of this ‘update’ is going to focus on explaining what can be seen on the video here (and turn off the sound, please… at least the music is… not to my taste).

What do you get to see?

Yes, an Ukrainian MiG-29 releasing two of French-made AASM-250 Hammer GPS-guided bombs. Reportedly ‘over Belgorod’: more likely against targets in the Vovchansk area.

But, actually, you get to see much, much… far more!

1.)    This MiG-29 was captured on a video while releasing its Hammers on the Russian positions in the Vovchansk area.

2.)    Vovchansk is mere 5km south of the border to Russia.

3.)    …which means this MiG-29 had to survive flying through at least some 90-100km of airspace within reach of Russian MiG-31BMs and Su-35S’ armed with R-37M long-range air-to-air missiles, and about 50km of airspace within reach of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile systems.

(That much about all the Western stories about ‘Russian air force is exercising no air superiority over the Ukrainian airspace…’)

4.)    To survive that ride, the MiG-29-pilot had to fly at critically low altitudes. Something like 40-50m for the start, then ever lower the closer to its pitch up/pull up point it approached: the last 30-40km, it was probably flying at less than 20 metres: down between trees, buildings, and other man-made obstacles - and that just to avoid early detection by Russian mast-mounted radars. Because: if it’s detected while still approaching, the Russians can either direct their MiG-31s or Su-35s to intercept it with R-37Ms, or target it with their S-400s.

5.)    ….all of which means it was a race for naked survival just to get this jet this far: indeed, timing was of such importance that most likely the entire mission was timed so that the MiG ‘went in’ at the time the nearest Russian interceptors were on the ‘outbound leg’ of their ‘combat air patrol orbit’, somewhere 90-150 km further east…

6.)    As next, mind that the air at low altitudes is dense, and especially at days with high temperatures: it’s very turbulent. Turbulences? That’s simple: Sun is warming the surface of the Earth, warm air is raising, cold air is descending… and a MiG-29 also has a wing of relatively large surface. The bigger the wing surface, the more is the wing sensing the turbulent air. Combine the two and you get what’s called the ‘gust response’: essentially, strong vibrations. So strong, that after 10 minutes of flying in this regime is rattling one’s brain to the point of becoming unable to think soberly.

7.)    And then, you can see the jet is pitching up (or pulling up), probably ‘pulling’ some 4gs as he went. 4g = the pilot and the aircraft are subjected to four times the force of gravity. When subjected to such acceleration, a pilot weighting, say, 80kg, is weighting 320kg. BTW, the same is valid for the aircraft structure: i.e. a jet weighting some 15,000kg is weighting 60,000kg while flying this manoeuvre…

8.)    Then you can see the engines pouring lots of black smoke as the aircraft is climbing at 45 degrees. RD-33 engines of a MiG-29 are emitting as much smoke when they’re at ‘full military thrust’: at their peak power setting without afterburner.

9.)    Why accelerating while climbing? In order to propel the two bombs over the necessary range. Even if ‘guided’, bombs still have to be aimed quite precisely, because they can’t fly any kind of sharp manoeuvres.

10.) Why no afterburner? Because afterburner would gulp too much fuel: this MiG-29 is certainly well away from its base, and flying at such critically low altitudes is gulping lots of fuel; ….while accelerating the aircraft much too fast would make things dangerous for the pilot and aircraft during its next manoeuvre (see the points 12 and 13).

11.) At around 0.06 min, the jet is in a 45-degrees, full-power climb, speed over 1,100km/h, perhaps more: time to release its two Hammers. They are then going to continue their flight along ballistic trajectory. Depending on the aircraft’s speed, that’s going to bring them over some 10 kilometres…

12.) At around 0.07 min of this video, both Hammers are away, and the pilot is rolling the jet to the left - into a very hard bank… by around 0.08, the jet is at something like 130 degrees left bank. Engines are still at max military thrust, emitting lots of smoke… That’s an indication of the jet flying a high-speed but tight manoeuvre. At least 7gs, probably more (could be up to 9, which is something like maximum for both the pilot and a MiG-29).

13.) This is when the ‘missile evasion’ portion of this mission is starting: while the jet was flying very low, before the pitch-up, it was – relatively – ‘safe’ from detection by Russian radars. But, since it pitched up, it’s 1000% sure it’s been detected, and then by multiple Russian radars. Pantsyrs, Tunguskas, Tors, Buks, S-300s, S-400… you name it. The display of the radar warning receiver (RWR) is lit like a Christmas tree, warning the pilot he’s tracked, too. Arguably, the RWR on MiG-29s is ‘dumb’ and can only show the type of threat’: ‘air/fighter’ or ‘ground’, and its approximate direction in front of the jet… unless the jet was modified with one of modern displays showing not only the direction/azimuth but also the relative position of the threat, of course….

14.) At around 00.10 min, the video ‘switches’ to show two white contrails. Might be from the same action, might be from some other: that’s unclear. But: essentially, that’s what contrails of SAMs fired at something high in the sky can look like. Provided these two SAMs were fired at this MiG-29 seen at the start of the video, this would mean the missiles were fooled by the jet’s evasive manoeuvre: the computer of their guidance system guided them to the MiG’s future position, somewhere high up in the sky, but…

15.) …. the video actually showing the jet continuing its manoeuvre proceeds at around 00.22 min: the jet continued its hard left turn, and…

16.) …by around 00.25 min is diving back towards the ground, now with a lower power setting of its engines (see: less smoke); after all, just out of a 7-9gs turn, the pilot doesn’t want to ‘over-g’ himself, faint, and fly into the ground…

17.) Still, now its imperative – really: a matter of naked survival again – for the pilot to bring the aircraft back to the ‘safety’ of ultra low altitude. Therefore, the pilot is diving his jet for some 5-6 seconds, until low between the trees again, at the end of the video…

….though, make no mistakes: that MiG-29 is still not really safe even once it’s back down to low altitude. If the pilot fails to distance quickly enough, he’s going to end like his comrade shot down over Pokrovsk, back on 10 March this year.

With other words: every single second of this mission was extremely dangerous.

Why am I explaining all of this: this is the answer to questions posted by people asking if Ukraine has ‘its own UMPK glide bombs’. As explained back on 6 June: yes, it does have them, and it’s regularly deploying them, too. But, it is doing so in dramatically different fashion than the Russians can afford doing. Because – due to such Russian interceptors like MiG-31BM and Su-35S, and their R-37Ms – Ukrainian pilots cannot afford approaching the frontline at high altitudes, to release their Hammers and JDAMs from far away, like UMPK-carrying Su-34s can.  

***

What’s up on the ground? Generally, a lot, though not much in sense of ‘advance’. That is: with two significant exceptions.

1.)    The first consignment of artillery ammunition from the ‘Czech Arms Deal’ is now in Ukraine, and enabling ZSU’s artillery to shoot ‘with everything it’s got’; so much so, the Russians are already (and bitterly) complaining in the social media (in style of, ‘Ukrainians shoot 30 for every 10 we fire), and,

2.)    Yesterday and today, Ukrainians have recovered all of the Kanal District of Chasiv Yar.