Hello everybody! This one is not only going to be ‘quick & dirty’, but almost literally ‘written on the run’…. and focusing on just two points. 1.) As far as is known by now, what's left of the ‘Russian garrison’ of Staromaiorske (south of Velyka Novoselivka, in south-western Donetsk) has capitulated yesterday evening.
Oh bad Ukrainians hurting poor Russian soldiers who only wanted to annex some territory of Ukraine and to spoil the other part with bombing, mining and smashing dams! How cruel and unjust to prevent further mutilating of Ukrainian children!
'Demonstrating' that the Russians are 'treating Ukrainian POWs humanely'?
Have seen enough of 'Russian humanism' for three lives. Thanks a lot.
Shall I post you a video of a captured Russian mobik, explaining how they've killed their own commander in order to survive? ....or any other of all the videos of captured Russians of the last few days?
if you want to prevent kiling slavs, there is easy solution. Russia soldiers should go to russia and it will be stopped. With hate it will be harder, but maybe if returning soldiers will kill Putin and his friends it will be a good start.
Jul 27, 2023·edited Jul 27, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
There are no Slavs killing Slavs. There is defending side killing aggressor. We do not care are they Slavs, Buryats, Dagestan's or Mars people. To stop killing ruzzian army just need to go home. And stop spraying your kremlin narratives.
Or, If you’d like I can always post a video of Ukrainian being shot after digging his own grave. Or would you like a video of an asshole who cut off a soldier’s manhood for pure enjoyment before killing him? You seem to get off on that stuff. Or how about comparing how Russian and Ukrainian POW come out after being detained? Would you like that? For some unbeknownst to me reason Russian POW look like they’ve been well fed, in clean clothes, and in much better condition whereas Ukrainian POW come out needing surgeries, all broken up, with loss of weight. Just say the word, or better yet, you POS, пошел нахуй.
(Who doesn't know: a year ago they shot a thermobaric rocket from RPO-Shmel into a locked prison barrack containing hundreds of Ukrainian POWs. 50+ confirmed deaths, hundreds burnt and injured).
I feel bad sometimes after realising that Russian's do kill fellow Russian's (intentionally or unintentionally) like them running into their landmines.
On the other, I remember these are the same people who cheer about slaughtering civilians and gaslighting Ukraine and my sympathy for them is misplaced
In the news linked they talk about "multiple thousands nato trained and nato equipped fresh troops", which I would interpret as at least one of the assault brigades so far held back.
Jul 27, 2023·edited Jul 27, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Lovely to see the confirmation of the news you've been sharing at least 2 days ahead of everyone else (that I follow), at least in this Robotyne & Staromaiorske axes your reporting has been top notch!
I'm still skeptical of any rapid breakthrough though, the VSRF always throws bodies at any problem to gain time and adapt, improve supply, dig in, mine everywhere, etc. But nothing would make me happier than being wrong about this one.
It's true though that the maps always give the wrong impression that the Azov sea is still very far out of reach, 90 km away, but the ZSU wouldn't need to reach the coast to gain a significant strategic advantage, if they can advance 15-20 km towards Tokmak, even without capturing it quickly, I feel that would already improve their situation a lot.
Great! Another update in so quick succession, and with good news into! I had read and reread it a couple of times, delighted. Many thanks for your work, Tom, it’s invaluable.
You should be ashamed of continuing to delude your readers with claims that are simply not true. Robotyne has not been captured or bypassed, and Staromaiorske is still in Russian hands. This pattern of constantly claiming Ukrainian advances that didn't happen should be obvious to your readers by now.
If you don't like the quality of Tom's analysis- don't read it. The readers of this blog can take good care of themselves. Post as always to the point and in line with the other information currently available
I know that Twitter handle foremost from the times of the Syrian War, and that Suriyak is an Assadist. And in Assadist Syria, nobody posts anything on the internet without permission from - de-facto - 'Assad' (or one of his 'security/intelligence services'; not even if living outside Syria but intending to return or having a family living in Syria.).
Have followed it, on/off, early after the Russian all-out invasion and it promptly became obvious that, nd just like during the Syrian War, he's principally serving 'good news' (in the case of Ukraine: that's about Russian advances) and rarely publishing any 'bad news' (Ukrainian advances).
Of course, like every 'master PRBS-industrialists', he does, occasionally, release some 'bad news' to make himself appear authoritative, even 'non-biased'.
Haven't checked his reporting since around April-May last year, but I doubt he's changed anything of that ever since.
Interestingly, over the last 17 months, Tom's analysis/reporting has been accurate far more often than it's been wrong. The race may not always be to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.
He didn't claim they took it but that they were in Robotyne and bypassing it attacking further south.
And just 10 days later he reported in "Popov's gladiators" that Russia massively reinforced the area. You know, you are still allowed to use your own brain as well and connect some dots.
If you don't understand how this works I recommend to read Tom's 3 part series "war monitoring for beginners" just released recently.
"Orikhiv…On 28-29 June, a Russian counterattack aiming to push Ukrainians back into the minefields north of Robotyne failed. This had severe consequences – for the VSRF. Early on 30 June, the ZSU infantry (who else…) infiltrated Novopokrovka, then assaulted from ‘knife range’ causing the Russian garrison to flee in panic. The 58th CAA reacted by re-deploying Spetsnaz there (probably the 45th Brigade), which saved the situation in so far that they’re still holding the southern side of the village. However, ZSU then (on 1 July) infiltrated the seam between the BARS-3 (defending Robotyne) and the 70th Motor Rifle Regiment (defending the area between Robotyne and Verbove). Once again, the Russian positions collapsed, enabling Ukrainian reinforcements (38th Brigade?) to drive a wedge in direction of Novoprokopivka (defended by the 1430th Motor Rifle Regiment). It’s unclear how far this one went, but it’s clear that the Ukrainian action lasted for at least 48 hours, without interruption, exhausting the Russians (but own troops too) as result. What is sure is that as soon as the Russians re-deployed a part of the 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade and a few tanks in block this Ukrainian move, the main position of the 22nd was hit by another Ukrainian infiltration, this time into the Russian eastern flank, in direction of Verbove (defended by the 417th Recce Battalion)…"
I see comments on infiltration & wedges below Robotyne, I see VSRF forces "still holding" the southern edge of Robotyne, I see inferences that the ZSU is all over the place, but I don't see where he says it is captured.
Combined with the distributed nature of modern combat and the current "jab, jab, jab" tactics of the ZSU, as outlined a couple days ago by Tom, there are no inconsistencies to be noted here.
Leaving aside the fact that according to an abundance of sources this did not happen, and is not remotely what combat has been like in this sector, go ahead and read the comments on the map he posted in this article.
Staromaiorske is now confirmed to be in Ulkrainian hands. Tom has info from the ground, which sometimes can be wrong (as you pointed out Robotyne was not conquered that time) but more often are right and fresher then most. Generally Tom is trustable even if of course his info is mainly Ukrainian and is therefore a little biased
Long story short. Quinton, you’ve been NAFOed and now went silent. You’re so miserable, trying to spread PRBS narratives. Well, seems it’s time to create a new account, right?
Given the current proximity of the "front line" to Tokmak, I have to imagine that all the supply routes into Tokmak are already heavily interdicted by Ukrainian arty. If the current pushes can be widened another 30-odd km and deepened another 20 km to the point where HIMARS can get in and out of such a bulge without being immediately observable (and drawing unwanted attention) then the crossroads west of Berdiansk would be in range of GMLRS (its already in range of GLSDB, but those are not as readily available). At that point the situation in the South and across Crimea starts to get a lot more tentative for Mr. Pudding and his men.
Heavy rocket strikes slammed the critical logistics hub of Tokmak in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine today, according to a regional leader installed by Moscow.
When Ukraine cuts the railway line there then , as you wrote, interesting situation.
Fascinating that this happens at the same time that Ukraine General Tarnavskyi goes to the press saying that Russian army is putting up strong resistance and Ukraine is making slow progress. I am constantly impressed by the Ukrainians.
Thank you Tom I really like this report the long range interdiction shots are paying off and my word putting a man every meter is absolutely stupid man talk about a cluster target
Thanks again! Can only hope that the next iteration of this offensive is quicker.
Again, looks very much like the Normandy battles. Tough going for many weeks--until the weaker enemy was worn down, both by frontal attacks and isolation of the enemy rear.
But since military history sometimes doesn't even rhyme, it will probably be left to historians to clear away the fog.
Hmm. Tom doesn't seem to like military historians; he says they rely too much on news media without knowing what the boots on the ground experienced. I'll be interested to read Tom's book on this war. That's where the fog will be cleared.
May I cautiously suggest that you have somewhat kind of mood change recently ( I tried to phrase it in the most positive and non-offensive way). I’ve been reading your posts for a while already and I always felt a certain level of constructive criticism towards UAF even during days of good news (which I only appreciate, honestly). However, your last short ones sound to me a lot like a pure “at a boys”, as if you are so much in the good mood with the results so just want to cherish the moment as it is. This is my only subjective perception, but the vibe seems quite strong to me. And I know that 50% of success is usually a good work on UAF part, and another 50% is thanks to “extraordinary genius” of the russians.
Anyway, thanks for keeping up with such a pace of updates and, as always, valued inputs!
My analysis is not about 'good mod' or 'bad mod', but about realism.
A recommendation: online-psychoanalysing me - is not only misleading, but a futile exercise. And it's making me mad: because I consider it offensive, no matter how 'well meant' it might be. Cold matter of fact is: you all do not know me and I do not want it any other way.
US made these DPICM in a variety of sizes. I read somewhere they only sent the 155mm version to Ukraine, do you happen to know if that is correct?
Oh bad Ukrainians hurting poor Russian soldiers who only wanted to annex some territory of Ukraine and to spoil the other part with bombing, mining and smashing dams! How cruel and unjust to prevent further mutilating of Ukrainian children!
What's the purpose of that post?
'Demonstrating' that the Russians are 'treating Ukrainian POWs humanely'?
Have seen enough of 'Russian humanism' for three lives. Thanks a lot.
Shall I post you a video of a captured Russian mobik, explaining how they've killed their own commander in order to survive? ....or any other of all the videos of captured Russians of the last few days?
if you want to prevent kiling slavs, there is easy solution. Russia soldiers should go to russia and it will be stopped. With hate it will be harder, but maybe if returning soldiers will kill Putin and his friends it will be a good start.
There are no Slavs killing Slavs. There is defending side killing aggressor. We do not care are they Slavs, Buryats, Dagestan's or Mars people. To stop killing ruzzian army just need to go home. And stop spraying your kremlin narratives.
How could he stop if he's a troll quoting fakes & RT lies.
Well said.
Russian Slavs? Of course, Putin has a purely Slavic face.
With this amount of botocs he became look more and more like other race.
If the 'purpose is to prevent Slavs killing Slavs', then go and post on Putin's blog to withdraw his Dirlewangers from Ukraine. Pronto.
Thanks a lot - in advance.
I thought the Russians were avoiding mobilising Slavs and concentrated on bringing ethnic minorities to the slaughter.
How about Slavs recruiting Slavs to their cause?
https://www.reddit.com/r/FreedomofRussia/comments/142xogg/freedom_russia_legions_cesar_conversation_with_rf/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android_app&utm_name=androidcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=1
Or, If you’d like I can always post a video of Ukrainian being shot after digging his own grave. Or would you like a video of an asshole who cut off a soldier’s manhood for pure enjoyment before killing him? You seem to get off on that stuff. Or how about comparing how Russian and Ukrainian POW come out after being detained? Would you like that? For some unbeknownst to me reason Russian POW look like they’ve been well fed, in clean clothes, and in much better condition whereas Ukrainian POW come out needing surgeries, all broken up, with loss of weight. Just say the word, or better yet, you POS, пошел нахуй.
Well said, Yury
+ Olenivka.
In the endless list of ruzzian POW-atrocities.
(Who doesn't know: a year ago they shot a thermobaric rocket from RPO-Shmel into a locked prison barrack containing hundreds of Ukrainian POWs. 50+ confirmed deaths, hundreds burnt and injured).
Not even to mention "unknown unknowns"...
I suggest all of you to listen wise word of MEP Clare Daly:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ScahIlsgtlY
war can not be ended with more weapons.
It can. This is how the most of wars ended.
It can. Including WW2.
Nazi Germany and Imperialistic Japan - both fell to *more weapons* and *harder hits in the face*.
That's the only way against bloodthirsty criminals. And this is how russia will end.
--
I suggest you donate to "Come Back Alive" pro-ZSU charity fund, Ilon.
Delighted to read such news! Many, many thanks!
Wow, that sounds like good news. You made my day!
Congrats Elena, you are first 🙃
I feel bad sometimes after realising that Russian's do kill fellow Russian's (intentionally or unintentionally) like them running into their landmines.
On the other, I remember these are the same people who cheer about slaughtering civilians and gaslighting Ukraine and my sympathy for them is misplaced
Russian soldiers can simply go home. Do you sympathize with a murderer who came to kill your family and was killed by a policeman?
Well they kinda cannot.
Ah the sweet freedom from responsibility for you own fucking actions! The oxygen for the russian soul.
And what is stopping them? They have guns. Prigozhyn went all the way 150km from Moscow...
Thanks for the update.
Anything serious about the NYT article, which gets recycled by all media, that Ukraine tapped into their own reserves for the push in the south?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hm7OQlOSlxs
In the news linked they talk about "multiple thousands nato trained and nato equipped fresh troops", which I would interpret as at least one of the assault brigades so far held back.
Lovely to see the confirmation of the news you've been sharing at least 2 days ahead of everyone else (that I follow), at least in this Robotyne & Staromaiorske axes your reporting has been top notch!
I'm still skeptical of any rapid breakthrough though, the VSRF always throws bodies at any problem to gain time and adapt, improve supply, dig in, mine everywhere, etc. But nothing would make me happier than being wrong about this one.
It's true though that the maps always give the wrong impression that the Azov sea is still very far out of reach, 90 km away, but the ZSU wouldn't need to reach the coast to gain a significant strategic advantage, if they can advance 15-20 km towards Tokmak, even without capturing it quickly, I feel that would already improve their situation a lot.
Спасибо за хорошие новости
You dont know how much we love theses updates, especially in the last few days that you are doing it daily thank you
Great! Another update in so quick succession, and with good news into! I had read and reread it a couple of times, delighted. Many thanks for your work, Tom, it’s invaluable.
You should be ashamed of continuing to delude your readers with claims that are simply not true. Robotyne has not been captured or bypassed, and Staromaiorske is still in Russian hands. This pattern of constantly claiming Ukrainian advances that didn't happen should be obvious to your readers by now.
So THAT'S why the Ukrainians lost Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson and Liman!😉
If you don't like the quality of Tom's analysis- don't read it. The readers of this blog can take good care of themselves. Post as always to the point and in line with the other information currently available
Bless. "Quinton" is upset.
Don't worry, 'Quinton': the special military operation is developing along the plan.
https://twitter.com/Artur_Micek/status/1684607363263627269
I know that Twitter handle foremost from the times of the Syrian War, and that Suriyak is an Assadist. And in Assadist Syria, nobody posts anything on the internet without permission from - de-facto - 'Assad' (or one of his 'security/intelligence services'; not even if living outside Syria but intending to return or having a family living in Syria.).
Have followed it, on/off, early after the Russian all-out invasion and it promptly became obvious that, nd just like during the Syrian War, he's principally serving 'good news' (in the case of Ukraine: that's about Russian advances) and rarely publishing any 'bad news' (Ukrainian advances).
Of course, like every 'master PRBS-industrialists', he does, occasionally, release some 'bad news' to make himself appear authoritative, even 'non-biased'.
Haven't checked his reporting since around April-May last year, but I doubt he's changed anything of that ever since.
Look I'm not pro-Russian, I just prefer reality to fiction. Care to explain why you claimed Ukraine had captured Robotyne back on July 3?
Because you either can't read or cannot comprehend what you read but are too arrogant to ask questions.
Interestingly, over the last 17 months, Tom's analysis/reporting has been accurate far more often than it's been wrong. The race may not always be to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet.
He claimed that Ukraine took Robotyne back on July 3. He makes ridiculous claims all the time
He didn't claim they took it but that they were in Robotyne and bypassing it attacking further south.
And just 10 days later he reported in "Popov's gladiators" that Russia massively reinforced the area. You know, you are still allowed to use your own brain as well and connect some dots.
If you don't understand how this works I recommend to read Tom's 3 part series "war monitoring for beginners" just released recently.
Give me a break. They never got close to bypassing Robotyne a month ago. This is pure fiction. And his post literally said they had captured it.
So, this is the relevant part of the July 3 post:
"Orikhiv…On 28-29 June, a Russian counterattack aiming to push Ukrainians back into the minefields north of Robotyne failed. This had severe consequences – for the VSRF. Early on 30 June, the ZSU infantry (who else…) infiltrated Novopokrovka, then assaulted from ‘knife range’ causing the Russian garrison to flee in panic. The 58th CAA reacted by re-deploying Spetsnaz there (probably the 45th Brigade), which saved the situation in so far that they’re still holding the southern side of the village. However, ZSU then (on 1 July) infiltrated the seam between the BARS-3 (defending Robotyne) and the 70th Motor Rifle Regiment (defending the area between Robotyne and Verbove). Once again, the Russian positions collapsed, enabling Ukrainian reinforcements (38th Brigade?) to drive a wedge in direction of Novoprokopivka (defended by the 1430th Motor Rifle Regiment). It’s unclear how far this one went, but it’s clear that the Ukrainian action lasted for at least 48 hours, without interruption, exhausting the Russians (but own troops too) as result. What is sure is that as soon as the Russians re-deployed a part of the 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade and a few tanks in block this Ukrainian move, the main position of the 22nd was hit by another Ukrainian infiltration, this time into the Russian eastern flank, in direction of Verbove (defended by the 417th Recce Battalion)…"
I see comments on infiltration & wedges below Robotyne, I see VSRF forces "still holding" the southern edge of Robotyne, I see inferences that the ZSU is all over the place, but I don't see where he says it is captured.
Combined with the distributed nature of modern combat and the current "jab, jab, jab" tactics of the ZSU, as outlined a couple days ago by Tom, there are no inconsistencies to be noted here.
Leaving aside the fact that according to an abundance of sources this did not happen, and is not remotely what combat has been like in this sector, go ahead and read the comments on the map he posted in this article.
Psst, "Quinton."
That's the name of a town. In the English speaking world, as a first name it's spelt "Quinten."
And no need to say "spasibo."
It was a pleasure...😉
Quintin, actually. It's my dad's name.
He is just one more lover of "objective" sources like "Simplicius". Usually, such public do not worth to spend time on.
Staromaiorske is still in Russian hands, hahaha. It's you who said what is not true.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1684625810114727938
Staromaiorske is now confirmed to be in Ulkrainian hands. Tom has info from the ground, which sometimes can be wrong (as you pointed out Robotyne was not conquered that time) but more often are right and fresher then most. Generally Tom is trustable even if of course his info is mainly Ukrainian and is therefore a little biased
Long story short. Quinton, you’ve been NAFOed and now went silent. You’re so miserable, trying to spread PRBS narratives. Well, seems it’s time to create a new account, right?
Twat
Given the current proximity of the "front line" to Tokmak, I have to imagine that all the supply routes into Tokmak are already heavily interdicted by Ukrainian arty. If the current pushes can be widened another 30-odd km and deepened another 20 km to the point where HIMARS can get in and out of such a bulge without being immediately observable (and drawing unwanted attention) then the crossroads west of Berdiansk would be in range of GMLRS (its already in range of GLSDB, but those are not as readily available). At that point the situation in the South and across Crimea starts to get a lot more tentative for Mr. Pudding and his men.
Heavy rocket strikes slammed the critical logistics hub of Tokmak in Russian-occupied southern Ukraine today, according to a regional leader installed by Moscow.
When Ukraine cuts the railway line there then , as you wrote, interesting situation.
Fascinating that this happens at the same time that Ukraine General Tarnavskyi goes to the press saying that Russian army is putting up strong resistance and Ukraine is making slow progress. I am constantly impressed by the Ukrainians.
Thank you Tom I really like this report the long range interdiction shots are paying off and my word putting a man every meter is absolutely stupid man talk about a cluster target
Thanks again! Can only hope that the next iteration of this offensive is quicker.
Again, looks very much like the Normandy battles. Tough going for many weeks--until the weaker enemy was worn down, both by frontal attacks and isolation of the enemy rear.
But since military history sometimes doesn't even rhyme, it will probably be left to historians to clear away the fog.
Hmm. Tom doesn't seem to like military historians; he says they rely too much on news media without knowing what the boots on the ground experienced. I'll be interested to read Tom's book on this war. That's where the fog will be cleared.
Dear Tom,
May I cautiously suggest that you have somewhat kind of mood change recently ( I tried to phrase it in the most positive and non-offensive way). I’ve been reading your posts for a while already and I always felt a certain level of constructive criticism towards UAF even during days of good news (which I only appreciate, honestly). However, your last short ones sound to me a lot like a pure “at a boys”, as if you are so much in the good mood with the results so just want to cherish the moment as it is. This is my only subjective perception, but the vibe seems quite strong to me. And I know that 50% of success is usually a good work on UAF part, and another 50% is thanks to “extraordinary genius” of the russians.
Anyway, thanks for keeping up with such a pace of updates and, as always, valued inputs!
My analysis is not about 'good mod' or 'bad mod', but about realism.
A recommendation: online-psychoanalysing me - is not only misleading, but a futile exercise. And it's making me mad: because I consider it offensive, no matter how 'well meant' it might be. Cold matter of fact is: you all do not know me and I do not want it any other way.
This comment might be the most relatable thing I ever read. Cheers, Tom.