Hello everybody! Just realised that, while collecting materials for this update, I’ve been ‘facepalming’ myself for over two hours. Yes: have found myself ‘almost paralysed’ for more than two hours just from reading all sorts of moronic nonsense in the mainstream- and the social media.
That turtle shell seems to be a big brother of the cage armor, I would expect it to be highly effective against drones. Probably much less so against kinetic penetrators or artillery (I know, I know, let's thank the idiots for Ukraine not having enough of these).
Gustav Gressel (who's fresh from Ukraine) says that these "turtles" are not used as tanks, but as fortified mobile EW, that are used to provide anti-drone cover to the other storming troops.
Could be, after that tank captured a few weeks ago with all those jammers on top.
It would also seem like a waste to have a main gun and not use it. On the other hand, if it's also crewed for attacks and hit with ammo loaded into it, the troops will have an even harder time escaping than usual. So I dunno.
You think about the "EW turtle" in solo fight - but you should think about it as cover for a whole column of mil vehicles. The main weapon Ukrainians used to dismantle such columns (beside mines) were FPV drones. And the "EW turtles" somewhat mitigate the threat of drones.
Also, we probably don't have to crack our heads too much about it. Ukrainian bloggers/volunteers/etc say that the appearance of these "turtles" became a surprise, but countermeasures are already in the development. (Not sure what they're planning, but even as layman I still know that plain iron burns quite well.)
Oh by the way. Heard today discussion on Ukrainian radio about the turtles. One mil expert (after lengthy rant about the fake story about Abrams tanks*) went on to explain that the "turtles" are a symptom that the role of tank undergoes transformation on the battlefield. Western tanks were originally designed for anti-tank roles for breakthroughs. But in Ukraine they were predominantly deployed in anti-personnel and support roles. With advent of FPV, in his current view, the role of tank has changed to that of a (heavily armored) IFV. (I hope I haven't minced too much of his explanation.)
*The unit that operates Abrams in Ukraine officially refuted the story. And added that ZSU doesn't comment on relocation of troops to anybody. Thus the story in Western media is a fake.
Wow, thanks for the time you're putting into this.
The idea is in fact not new. As far as I know, _all_ tanks since WWII were designed for breakthroughs, but as the models improved, obsolete ones were sometimes demoted to infantry support (like the T-62, originally also intended to fight tanks, but quickly pushed back in favor of the vastly harder face and more powerful gun of the T-64 and T-72). These are still not proper IFVs as they can't carry additional troops inside, but could be called infantry tanks after the pre-WWII models designed for similar tasks.
As for the Abrams, we'll see if they appear again. Thirty times the current number would be better though.
Of course! The media and government PR assets (usually the same) here in Spain are almost daily reporting detected small boats flotillas coming to Spanish coasts and islands. So they MUST to be Russian spearheads… (hey, that they’re really masses of African so called migrants don’t be let down a good history).
Anyway, our beloved Prime Minister is more concerned with some ultra right wing offensive against his family than to do his work (I.e.: try to govern). This “offensive” is just the Justice investigations about Mr Sánchez’s wife less than clear business… so Ukraine is very, very down in his “to do” list, sadly.
Do they report that the 'African migrant crisis' was caused when the EU left the 7-8 Dutch oligarchs controlling the poultry industry of the Union to start exporting frozen chicken meat to North-West Africa?
Has destroyed the local poultry industry, including about 6 million of jobs.... that is: 6 million of directly involved jobs: the number of those who became jobless because the poultry industry was destroyed - remains unknown...
Yeah. Curiously, the most of the migrants are people in military age, and always said they’re coming from war-torn countries (sic). And the EU is delighted to impose sanitary norms over European farmers and herders… but enjoy to import food products from those African countries that didn’t have to comply with the EU sanitary norms…
a) for a non biased media like European (Western) media are. Hoping for ours media going back to be news transmitters.
b) EU import fruits, vegetables, olive oil, even alcoholic beverages from Morocco, Tunis and some other North African countries. Everyone may check the food’s origin in a European supermarket. Other thing is what our “cosmopoliticians” are doing with African economics (and ours too).
Anyway, actually I’m more concerned about Ukraine that “my” Prime troubles today (as yesterday and tomorrow)
I've asked you how do you want to know - precisely because that 'non-biased media like European' is never explaining the reasons. Never explaining the backgrounds, nor the context.
Therefore: if you depend on that media for this kind of information, you simply can't know what kind of a crisis has the EU caused in Northern and Westsern Africa by destroying the local poultry industry.
The 'war torn countries' of Africa would be foremost such like Eritrea, Ethiopia, Liberia etc. Unsurprisingly, yes: lots of refugees are coming from there. However, these countries are in Western- and Eastern Africa, not from North-West Africa. Indeed, at least as many are meanwhile coming from North-West Africa and 'not the least war-torn' countries. And they'Re fleeing for reasons I've mentioned above (thus, no surprise the mass of them are young men, too: they always first send young men, the rest of the family follows once these have 'established some sort of a basis' in the EU).
And EU importing 'fruits, vegetables, olive oil...alcoholic beverages from Morocco': it's importing even more from South America. And Morocco is not only one of lesser reasons for the crisis in North-West Africa (see its illegal occupation of the West Sahara, caused by a major Spanish mistake from back in 1974), but also its actions are supported and/or tolerated even when aiming directly against interests of EU-members (like the espionage affair against French politicians, few years ago).
....because Morocco is one of biggest suppliers of phosphates World-wide (many of these stolen from mines in West Sahara); because these phosphates are necessary for production of fertilizers; because one needs 4 tons of fertilizers to produce 1 ton of corn per one hectar of land; because Morocco is also happy to let Spanish fishers loot the fish off the coast of West Sahara, and because Morocco is thus continuously declared for 'well-proven friend' and 'traditional ally', regardless what it does.
You’re right. More than that, explain it also so well (as usually do, so no surprises here).
Morocco taken a bid for Sahara (a Spanish province like Seville, not the less) and the addition of Franco’s aggravating illness, US pressure (duress you may said) and some people back dealings leave Sahara and Rio de Oro for the taking. And some of “our” elites (western siloviki?) are more than happy with the situation from then to date. Citing the well know catch sentence: “The cash must flow”.
Our great governments are very happy also subsidising anything rural, from herds to trees, making unprofitable for growers and ranchers work anymore, just taking money for nothing.
Another instance of “well directed policies” (if you’re looking to line your pocket, of course)
Because “our” media best of times only said half trues, rest shuts or directly lied, were in no good position to know the full consequences of “cosmop” decisions (besides of this agricultural/livestock being “good for the environment”). For my, seems very difficult to found proper info (and when found it, used to be branded as “conspiracy theories”).
We’re seeing it in full force regarding Ukraine and more about the “people of peace” embedded in ole’ Outremer bombing civilians.
Sick and strange world this one (about the people at the rudder). Seems very similar to the Cold War times of my young days.
You didnt' seem to understand what Tom was talking about. The EU actively destroyed afrcican markets for local producers. That's not only poultry. It's also milk by exporting milk powder and textiles by send all thos textiles people here collected believing they were helping the poor.
ah, and yes, the sugar market too.
if africa is still able to export to the EU despite all the protective measures, they can only snatch a small market share.
Actually "so called migrants" keep are the backbone of the spanish agricultural industry. Ironically enough the xenophobia is even higher in the regions that are most dependent on them.
I think Germany should redeclare all those billions that go into EU agro-sibsidies and buy artillery ammunition instead.
"Yet further south: at least three Russian brigades are assaulting Krasnohorivka from the East and South." I think that one is wrong. Did you mean Semenivka?
Ty for the information again Tom. No matter how irritating and painful- the truth matters in war reporting…. Just a thought also… would the Ukrainians benefit also using their version of the “Turtle” tanks? To be used in counterattacks… since not all combat units have sexy western Bradley’s that are used to such effect.
Nope. Such tanks can't survive artillery hits, and can't turn their turrets to the left or right. Essentially, they're becoming 'assault guns': something like the famous StuGIII or ISU-152 of the WWII: they might be 'hard' at the front and the top, but near-defenceless for flank attacks.
I've read that the Russians are using them as spearheads of platoon elements, i.e. converting one tank to pseudo-casemate and putting it at the head of the column, plus IFVs behind. And that is what some of the relevant videos suggest as well. Why is this configuration more effective, to the extent that it is, if the contemporary threat environment is still 360°?
It's 'effective' because Ukrainians are lacking mines, ATGMs, and artillery. So, all they can do against 'such assault tanks' are attack them with FPVs, or (from very short range) with RPGs.
Both FPVs and RPGs might be capable of damaging something of the roof, but usually can't reach the tank.
Ty for the reply. I do think at this point they have become assault guns and absorbing damage … and with EA suite inside that casemate to increase survivability. I mean they only need to point their guns at target. Sigh I was hoping it would be copied by “poorer”Ukrainian units if it was giving them a better chance of surviving attacking Russian positions.
Tom, I’ve been reading that U.S. acknowledged an issue with Abrams M1 and is actively recalling them from the battlefield and is working with Ukrainians to fix it. The issue seems to the vulnerability to UAVs. Will they be able to fix it the issue or are tanks just no match for UAVs?
If the Pentagon is given a year or two, and left to spend US$2-3 billion of taxpayers money on such a 'project' - sure, no doubt they will.
Of course, some jealous people are going to say that this could be done for a few thousands of bucks, and in a matter of week or so. But, there's no reason to listen to them... 😉
Tom, thank you for the update. Sorry to keep taking your precious time with this, does this issue affect only specific Abrams model or all tanks in general?
John Ridge again on GLSDB: "JDAM-ER and GMLRS have been heavily stressed by Russian electronic/kinetic defenses, yet the Ukrainians have adapted and continue to employ them with moderate efficacy.... GLSDB may be salvaged in the end, though I am not optimistic." I vaguely recall reports of Russian jamming against GMLRS becoming successful as far back late '22 or early '23, with even mainstream reporting confirm it by Spring '23, but it's seemingly never been enough to keep HIMARS down for good. Ridge suggests the increased range/travel time of GLSDB may indeed be a liability in this regard.
Speaking of the 47th Bde, here is yet another article indicating the formation has been thoroughly hollowed out of its initial complement of personnel and equipment since a year ago.
“I have spoken with a thousand soldiers on this front and my conclusion is that NATO’s military theory is useless if you do not combine it with the Soviet one, which is the Russian one,” says Phoenix. “No NATO base in Europe has our combat experience, which is why we rely more and more on our own instructors,” explains a spokeswoman for the 47th Brigade.
[...]
Phoenix is anticipating a very difficult outlook for Ukraine. Russia is training 200,000 new recruits for the summer offensive, says this veteran fighter of the Donbas war (100,000 more than estimated last March by the head of the Ukrainian army). “They are getting better and better every day, their weapons too. And we lack everything,” he says.
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On the latter point, well, yes. It's not been difficult to tally up losses and gains within intervals over two years to discern that the VSRF (including separatists) should definitely clear 1.5 million military personnel overall by now, with at least half in the ground forces.
I didn’t understand what’s the connections between the attack on Crimea, the deployment of the Adm-160 decoys and the latest attack on the airbase in Kuban
Pull out a map of southern Ukraine (with Crimea) and northern Caucasus.
Draw a line approximately from Kherson via Dzhankoi - and see how far from Kushchevskaya AB does it end.
Then think about it: as first, Ukrainians destroyed the HQ of the 31st Air Defence Division at Dzankoi AB, and its S-400 SAM-site. That opened the way for attack further to the rear. Then Ukrainians deployed ADM-160 decoys to confuse the air defences of whatever was 'behind Dzhankoi'... and then they hit that stuff behind Dzhankoi.
Not too relevant, but Alexey Arestovich enjoying his time off to post this blog rant about the new constitutional right in France (check out his post to see what it's about; interestingly, he was also recently under criminal investigation in Ukraine for gratuitous comments about women...)
put me in mind of a certain commentary on the subject matter written in a Tom Cooper-like style:
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A non-viable blastocyst clinging to fallopian tube is a precious precious baby, and we as a society must do everything in our power to protect that baby even if it means killing the mother to save the already dead blastocyst. THAT'S how much we value precious PRECIOUS babies!
Of course, we don't actually value babies. You say that blastocyst need nutrients? Fuck you. Get a job! You say the mother needs prenatal care to ensure a healthy birth? She should have thought about that before she spread her legs, the slutty slut.
And if you think we're going to do anything to protect babies or children from being gunned down, you're out of your mind. In fact, we're doing everything we can and more to make sure as many children as possible get killed. THAT'S how much we value precious PRECIOUS babies.
I’d love to see Ukraine fight like NATO. We just need to give 400 M1s, 1000 Bradleys, an F-35 air wing, and a boomer in the Black Sea firing cruise missiles.
90% of the reduction in Americans caring about Ukraine stems from US weapons not being magical after all. Like, Abrams were meant to sit in reinforced hides sniping hordes of Soviet armor trying to push over ridges in Germany. Even Tom Clancy wrote them getting knocked out. The way they were used in Iraq was unique.
The basic job of a Cav Scout is to risk their own neck to reduce the risks posed to Abrams and Bradleys by *gestures at everything that can damage a track, engine, or turret mechanism*
Get vehicle safely to new hide, where it can kill a bunch of targets in a few minutes then run to the next. Rinse and repeat. Ukraine lacks the combat engineering assets for this, so has to use tanks as assault guns. Hence, losses. Hence why Ukraine needs every Leopard in Europe and half of the USA's Abrams stock.
I'll still take an Abrams over a T-90M. Or one of these turtle tanks. If it has tracks, it is vulnerable to mines.
The Associated Press reports that M1A1 Abrams tanks were withdrawn from the battle line due to the threat of drones. I can neither confirm nor deny this information, and there have been no official reports on this matter. But, nevertheless, I will note the following.
Even at the beginning of 2023, I was unpleasantly surprised that almost all Western-made tanks entering service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine were sent to the database zone without... additional protection, which has become a necessity in the conditions of current threats. Only in the second half of the year did Leopard 2 tanks with additionally installed Kontakt-1 dynamic protection begin to appear, and only at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024 did they finally manage, at the very least, to weld onto the most vulnerable part of the tank, the turret bustle, although an anti-cumulative grille...
In fact, it took a year before they started installing additional protection on Leopard 2... Why? What is the reason for such a disregard and connivance towards the combat vehicle? Yes, they have better armor than Soviet MBTs, but this does not mean that they do not have weakened and vulnerable zones, of which the enemy is well aware.
Likewise the M1A1 Abrams...
Almost all verified destroyed/damaged M1A1 Abrams did not have additional protection. The first destroyed M1A1 Abrams, stopped after hitting a TM-62 anti-tank mine, was then simply finished off with drones, again, trying to penetrate the turret bustle, which was completely unprotected by additional means.
Therefore, if the Associated Press information is confirmed, then it is not surprising that such a decision was made, but the question is, is this a decision simply to save equipment, or a solution to solve the problem? Namely, enhancing the native armor of tanks with additional ones?
But let's be honest. The entire promised batch of M1A1 Abrams tanks, in the amount of a battalion set, was delivered to Ukraine in October. The first verification of the destruction of the M1A1 Abrams was published on February 26, 2024. During the 4 months of being in Ukraine, any repair from the M1A1 Abrams would have been made into a much more protected MBT, but...
Not being an expert on tanks, I still find the whole drama around “did they or didn’t they pull the M1s” rather comical. We sent 31 tanks to Ukraine to engage in a land war with…checks notes… Russia? TBF, they were really sent to push Germany to allow leopard transfers.
I’m sure the M1s are great tanks, but they are guaranteed to not be Magical Tanks. So the upside of deploying 31 M1s is clearly constrained; it’s a tank. The downside in the event of loss, however, is the significant risk of embarrassing your single largest arms supplier when Russia inevitably captures it and parades it across global media. (Which they do, an activity I find totally bizarre, but whatever)
Americans are particularly sensitive to feeling unexceptional—especially in relation to our military hardware. And given how unserious American politics is as of late, >40% the country is actively looking for any excuse to bail on Ukraine altogether. So if I were a Ukrainian general, I would have kept those tanks locked in a Warehouse from the get-go. Perhaps they actually thought they would get more, (silly me, I assumed we would send more) but the PR downside of politically embarrassing a US administration is enormous relative to the tactical gain of a few fancy tanks getting stuck in the mud.
I was drifting towards despair after some of your recent analyses. Your remarks about Ukrainian effectiveness behind Russian lines gave me a glimmer of hope.
I keep asking myself, though, whether the aid definitely to be delivered contains stuff that will ensble resistance a)/to glide bombs on the front line and b) to power stations around Ukrainian cities?
Do you know if any of the GMLRS or GLSDB munitions have M-code-enabled receivers? And if so, any chance those might be supplied to Ukraine, and spot beams turned on over Ukrainian territory?
That turtle shell seems to be a big brother of the cage armor, I would expect it to be highly effective against drones. Probably much less so against kinetic penetrators or artillery (I know, I know, let's thank the idiots for Ukraine not having enough of these).
And a small brother to motorcycle netting the Russians are using.
Gustav Gressel (who's fresh from Ukraine) says that these "turtles" are not used as tanks, but as fortified mobile EW, that are used to provide anti-drone cover to the other storming troops.
Could be, after that tank captured a few weeks ago with all those jammers on top.
It would also seem like a waste to have a main gun and not use it. On the other hand, if it's also crewed for attacks and hit with ammo loaded into it, the troops will have an even harder time escaping than usual. So I dunno.
You think about the "EW turtle" in solo fight - but you should think about it as cover for a whole column of mil vehicles. The main weapon Ukrainians used to dismantle such columns (beside mines) were FPV drones. And the "EW turtles" somewhat mitigate the threat of drones.
Also, we probably don't have to crack our heads too much about it. Ukrainian bloggers/volunteers/etc say that the appearance of these "turtles" became a surprise, but countermeasures are already in the development. (Not sure what they're planning, but even as layman I still know that plain iron burns quite well.)
Oh by the way. Heard today discussion on Ukrainian radio about the turtles. One mil expert (after lengthy rant about the fake story about Abrams tanks*) went on to explain that the "turtles" are a symptom that the role of tank undergoes transformation on the battlefield. Western tanks were originally designed for anti-tank roles for breakthroughs. But in Ukraine they were predominantly deployed in anti-personnel and support roles. With advent of FPV, in his current view, the role of tank has changed to that of a (heavily armored) IFV. (I hope I haven't minced too much of his explanation.)
*The unit that operates Abrams in Ukraine officially refuted the story. And added that ZSU doesn't comment on relocation of troops to anybody. Thus the story in Western media is a fake.
Wow, thanks for the time you're putting into this.
The idea is in fact not new. As far as I know, _all_ tanks since WWII were designed for breakthroughs, but as the models improved, obsolete ones were sometimes demoted to infantry support (like the T-62, originally also intended to fight tanks, but quickly pushed back in favor of the vastly harder face and more powerful gun of the T-64 and T-72). These are still not proper IFVs as they can't carry additional troops inside, but could be called infantry tanks after the pre-WWII models designed for similar tasks.
As for the Abrams, we'll see if they appear again. Thirty times the current number would be better though.
Of course! The media and government PR assets (usually the same) here in Spain are almost daily reporting detected small boats flotillas coming to Spanish coasts and islands. So they MUST to be Russian spearheads… (hey, that they’re really masses of African so called migrants don’t be let down a good history).
Anyway, our beloved Prime Minister is more concerned with some ultra right wing offensive against his family than to do his work (I.e.: try to govern). This “offensive” is just the Justice investigations about Mr Sánchez’s wife less than clear business… so Ukraine is very, very down in his “to do” list, sadly.
Do they report that the 'African migrant crisis' was caused when the EU left the 7-8 Dutch oligarchs controlling the poultry industry of the Union to start exporting frozen chicken meat to North-West Africa?
Has destroyed the local poultry industry, including about 6 million of jobs.... that is: 6 million of directly involved jobs: the number of those who became jobless because the poultry industry was destroyed - remains unknown...
But hey: that's Africa. Who cares...
Yeah. Curiously, the most of the migrants are people in military age, and always said they’re coming from war-torn countries (sic). And the EU is delighted to impose sanitary norms over European farmers and herders… but enjoy to import food products from those African countries that didn’t have to comply with the EU sanitary norms…
a) How do you want to know that? And,
b) What food is the EU importing from African countries the economies of which was ruined by the EU?
a) for a non biased media like European (Western) media are. Hoping for ours media going back to be news transmitters.
b) EU import fruits, vegetables, olive oil, even alcoholic beverages from Morocco, Tunis and some other North African countries. Everyone may check the food’s origin in a European supermarket. Other thing is what our “cosmopoliticians” are doing with African economics (and ours too).
Anyway, actually I’m more concerned about Ukraine that “my” Prime troubles today (as yesterday and tomorrow)
I've asked you how do you want to know - precisely because that 'non-biased media like European' is never explaining the reasons. Never explaining the backgrounds, nor the context.
Therefore: if you depend on that media for this kind of information, you simply can't know what kind of a crisis has the EU caused in Northern and Westsern Africa by destroying the local poultry industry.
The 'war torn countries' of Africa would be foremost such like Eritrea, Ethiopia, Liberia etc. Unsurprisingly, yes: lots of refugees are coming from there. However, these countries are in Western- and Eastern Africa, not from North-West Africa. Indeed, at least as many are meanwhile coming from North-West Africa and 'not the least war-torn' countries. And they'Re fleeing for reasons I've mentioned above (thus, no surprise the mass of them are young men, too: they always first send young men, the rest of the family follows once these have 'established some sort of a basis' in the EU).
And EU importing 'fruits, vegetables, olive oil...alcoholic beverages from Morocco': it's importing even more from South America. And Morocco is not only one of lesser reasons for the crisis in North-West Africa (see its illegal occupation of the West Sahara, caused by a major Spanish mistake from back in 1974), but also its actions are supported and/or tolerated even when aiming directly against interests of EU-members (like the espionage affair against French politicians, few years ago).
....because Morocco is one of biggest suppliers of phosphates World-wide (many of these stolen from mines in West Sahara); because these phosphates are necessary for production of fertilizers; because one needs 4 tons of fertilizers to produce 1 ton of corn per one hectar of land; because Morocco is also happy to let Spanish fishers loot the fish off the coast of West Sahara, and because Morocco is thus continuously declared for 'well-proven friend' and 'traditional ally', regardless what it does.
You’re right. More than that, explain it also so well (as usually do, so no surprises here).
Morocco taken a bid for Sahara (a Spanish province like Seville, not the less) and the addition of Franco’s aggravating illness, US pressure (duress you may said) and some people back dealings leave Sahara and Rio de Oro for the taking. And some of “our” elites (western siloviki?) are more than happy with the situation from then to date. Citing the well know catch sentence: “The cash must flow”.
Our great governments are very happy also subsidising anything rural, from herds to trees, making unprofitable for growers and ranchers work anymore, just taking money for nothing.
Another instance of “well directed policies” (if you’re looking to line your pocket, of course)
Because “our” media best of times only said half trues, rest shuts or directly lied, were in no good position to know the full consequences of “cosmop” decisions (besides of this agricultural/livestock being “good for the environment”). For my, seems very difficult to found proper info (and when found it, used to be branded as “conspiracy theories”).
We’re seeing it in full force regarding Ukraine and more about the “people of peace” embedded in ole’ Outremer bombing civilians.
Sick and strange world this one (about the people at the rudder). Seems very similar to the Cold War times of my young days.
You didnt' seem to understand what Tom was talking about. The EU actively destroyed afrcican markets for local producers. That's not only poultry. It's also milk by exporting milk powder and textiles by send all thos textiles people here collected believing they were helping the poor.
ah, and yes, the sugar market too.
if africa is still able to export to the EU despite all the protective measures, they can only snatch a small market share.
Actually "so called migrants" keep are the backbone of the spanish agricultural industry. Ironically enough the xenophobia is even higher in the regions that are most dependent on them.
I think Germany should redeclare all those billions that go into EU agro-sibsidies and buy artillery ammunition instead.
But you’re to smart to know for sure if I understand anything or not. Thanks God for that clever people.
P.S: northern countries used to know best about “subsidies”: they take a king’s ransom in benefits for making food productions comodities.
Thank you so very much.
Thank you for the update Tom.
"Yet further south: at least three Russian brigades are assaulting Krasnohorivka from the East and South." I think that one is wrong. Did you mean Semenivka?
Krasnohorivka is just north of Marinka, about 20 km south of Semenivka. https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/47.9983/37.5211
ah that one. Confused it with that one, sry:
https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.2042/37.7310
of course there is more than one....
Of course. https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.4593/36.6919
Ty for the information again Tom. No matter how irritating and painful- the truth matters in war reporting…. Just a thought also… would the Ukrainians benefit also using their version of the “Turtle” tanks? To be used in counterattacks… since not all combat units have sexy western Bradley’s that are used to such effect.
Nope. Such tanks can't survive artillery hits, and can't turn their turrets to the left or right. Essentially, they're becoming 'assault guns': something like the famous StuGIII or ISU-152 of the WWII: they might be 'hard' at the front and the top, but near-defenceless for flank attacks.
I've read that the Russians are using them as spearheads of platoon elements, i.e. converting one tank to pseudo-casemate and putting it at the head of the column, plus IFVs behind. And that is what some of the relevant videos suggest as well. Why is this configuration more effective, to the extent that it is, if the contemporary threat environment is still 360°?
It's 'effective' because Ukrainians are lacking mines, ATGMs, and artillery. So, all they can do against 'such assault tanks' are attack them with FPVs, or (from very short range) with RPGs.
Both FPVs and RPGs might be capable of damaging something of the roof, but usually can't reach the tank.
Ty for the reply. I do think at this point they have become assault guns and absorbing damage … and with EA suite inside that casemate to increase survivability. I mean they only need to point their guns at target. Sigh I was hoping it would be copied by “poorer”Ukrainian units if it was giving them a better chance of surviving attacking Russian positions.
Thank you for keeping us updated, Tom. Painful to read always, but better the bitter truth than sweet lies...
Tom, I’ve been reading that U.S. acknowledged an issue with Abrams M1 and is actively recalling them from the battlefield and is working with Ukrainians to fix it. The issue seems to the vulnerability to UAVs. Will they be able to fix it the issue or are tanks just no match for UAVs?
If the Pentagon is given a year or two, and left to spend US$2-3 billion of taxpayers money on such a 'project' - sure, no doubt they will.
Of course, some jealous people are going to say that this could be done for a few thousands of bucks, and in a matter of week or so. But, there's no reason to listen to them... 😉
Tom, thank you for the update. Sorry to keep taking your precious time with this, does this issue affect only specific Abrams model or all tanks in general?
Of course, it's all the tanks. But, the Americans seem to have thought FPVs can't hurt their M1s.
....or, and that's at least as likely: they never came to the idea to consider the FPV-threat, because they never faced it on their own.
John Ridge again on GLSDB: "JDAM-ER and GMLRS have been heavily stressed by Russian electronic/kinetic defenses, yet the Ukrainians have adapted and continue to employ them with moderate efficacy.... GLSDB may be salvaged in the end, though I am not optimistic." I vaguely recall reports of Russian jamming against GMLRS becoming successful as far back late '22 or early '23, with even mainstream reporting confirm it by Spring '23, but it's seemingly never been enough to keep HIMARS down for good. Ridge suggests the increased range/travel time of GLSDB may indeed be a liability in this regard.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/05/politics/russia-jamming-himars-rockets-ukraine/index.html
Speaking of the 47th Bde, here is yet another article indicating the formation has been thoroughly hollowed out of its initial complement of personnel and equipment since a year ago.
https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-04-22/ukraines-star-brigade-in-dire-state-due-to-lack-of-weapons-and-its-own-mistakes.html
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“I have spoken with a thousand soldiers on this front and my conclusion is that NATO’s military theory is useless if you do not combine it with the Soviet one, which is the Russian one,” says Phoenix. “No NATO base in Europe has our combat experience, which is why we rely more and more on our own instructors,” explains a spokeswoman for the 47th Brigade.
[...]
Phoenix is anticipating a very difficult outlook for Ukraine. Russia is training 200,000 new recruits for the summer offensive, says this veteran fighter of the Donbas war (100,000 more than estimated last March by the head of the Ukrainian army). “They are getting better and better every day, their weapons too. And we lack everything,” he says.
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On the latter point, well, yes. It's not been difficult to tally up losses and gains within intervals over two years to discern that the VSRF (including separatists) should definitely clear 1.5 million military personnel overall by now, with at least half in the ground forces.
Thanks Tom!
I didn’t understand what’s the connections between the attack on Crimea, the deployment of the Adm-160 decoys and the latest attack on the airbase in Kuban
Pull out a map of southern Ukraine (with Crimea) and northern Caucasus.
Draw a line approximately from Kherson via Dzhankoi - and see how far from Kushchevskaya AB does it end.
Then think about it: as first, Ukrainians destroyed the HQ of the 31st Air Defence Division at Dzankoi AB, and its S-400 SAM-site. That opened the way for attack further to the rear. Then Ukrainians deployed ADM-160 decoys to confuse the air defences of whatever was 'behind Dzhankoi'... and then they hit that stuff behind Dzhankoi.
ADD-ON: for a more comprehensive explanation, see here:
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/saints-thunders-and-lightnings-part-583
Not too relevant, but Alexey Arestovich enjoying his time off to post this blog rant about the new constitutional right in France (check out his post to see what it's about; interestingly, he was also recently under criminal investigation in Ukraine for gratuitous comments about women...)
https://twitter.com/arestovych/status/1765782734826250519
put me in mind of a certain commentary on the subject matter written in a Tom Cooper-like style:
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A non-viable blastocyst clinging to fallopian tube is a precious precious baby, and we as a society must do everything in our power to protect that baby even if it means killing the mother to save the already dead blastocyst. THAT'S how much we value precious PRECIOUS babies!
Of course, we don't actually value babies. You say that blastocyst need nutrients? Fuck you. Get a job! You say the mother needs prenatal care to ensure a healthy birth? She should have thought about that before she spread her legs, the slutty slut.
And if you think we're going to do anything to protect babies or children from being gunned down, you're out of your mind. In fact, we're doing everything we can and more to make sure as many children as possible get killed. THAT'S how much we value precious PRECIOUS babies.
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...
I’d love to see Ukraine fight like NATO. We just need to give 400 M1s, 1000 Bradleys, an F-35 air wing, and a boomer in the Black Sea firing cruise missiles.
Add a Gripen air wing as well, for employing the Meteor long range missiles as well...
(and I forgot an air wing of F-15E Strike Eagles, to carry enough tonnage since the F-35 is more of a sniper than a bomb truck)
Thanks Tom!
90% of the reduction in Americans caring about Ukraine stems from US weapons not being magical after all. Like, Abrams were meant to sit in reinforced hides sniping hordes of Soviet armor trying to push over ridges in Germany. Even Tom Clancy wrote them getting knocked out. The way they were used in Iraq was unique.
The basic job of a Cav Scout is to risk their own neck to reduce the risks posed to Abrams and Bradleys by *gestures at everything that can damage a track, engine, or turret mechanism*
Get vehicle safely to new hide, where it can kill a bunch of targets in a few minutes then run to the next. Rinse and repeat. Ukraine lacks the combat engineering assets for this, so has to use tanks as assault guns. Hence, losses. Hence why Ukraine needs every Leopard in Europe and half of the USA's Abrams stock.
I'll still take an Abrams over a T-90M. Or one of these turtle tanks. If it has tracks, it is vulnerable to mines.
Regarding the “retraction” of the M1A1 Abrams...
The Associated Press reports that M1A1 Abrams tanks were withdrawn from the battle line due to the threat of drones. I can neither confirm nor deny this information, and there have been no official reports on this matter. But, nevertheless, I will note the following.
Even at the beginning of 2023, I was unpleasantly surprised that almost all Western-made tanks entering service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine were sent to the database zone without... additional protection, which has become a necessity in the conditions of current threats. Only in the second half of the year did Leopard 2 tanks with additionally installed Kontakt-1 dynamic protection begin to appear, and only at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024 did they finally manage, at the very least, to weld onto the most vulnerable part of the tank, the turret bustle, although an anti-cumulative grille...
In fact, it took a year before they started installing additional protection on Leopard 2... Why? What is the reason for such a disregard and connivance towards the combat vehicle? Yes, they have better armor than Soviet MBTs, but this does not mean that they do not have weakened and vulnerable zones, of which the enemy is well aware.
Likewise the M1A1 Abrams...
Almost all verified destroyed/damaged M1A1 Abrams did not have additional protection. The first destroyed M1A1 Abrams, stopped after hitting a TM-62 anti-tank mine, was then simply finished off with drones, again, trying to penetrate the turret bustle, which was completely unprotected by additional means.
Therefore, if the Associated Press information is confirmed, then it is not surprising that such a decision was made, but the question is, is this a decision simply to save equipment, or a solution to solve the problem? Namely, enhancing the native armor of tanks with additional ones?
But let's be honest. The entire promised batch of M1A1 Abrams tanks, in the amount of a battalion set, was delivered to Ukraine in October. The first verification of the destruction of the M1A1 Abrams was published on February 26, 2024. During the 4 months of being in Ukraine, any repair from the M1A1 Abrams would have been made into a much more protected MBT, but...
But…
@Kowalenko O.
https://t.me/zloyodessit/21567
Not being an expert on tanks, I still find the whole drama around “did they or didn’t they pull the M1s” rather comical. We sent 31 tanks to Ukraine to engage in a land war with…checks notes… Russia? TBF, they were really sent to push Germany to allow leopard transfers.
I’m sure the M1s are great tanks, but they are guaranteed to not be Magical Tanks. So the upside of deploying 31 M1s is clearly constrained; it’s a tank. The downside in the event of loss, however, is the significant risk of embarrassing your single largest arms supplier when Russia inevitably captures it and parades it across global media. (Which they do, an activity I find totally bizarre, but whatever)
Americans are particularly sensitive to feeling unexceptional—especially in relation to our military hardware. And given how unserious American politics is as of late, >40% the country is actively looking for any excuse to bail on Ukraine altogether. So if I were a Ukrainian general, I would have kept those tanks locked in a Warehouse from the get-go. Perhaps they actually thought they would get more, (silly me, I assumed we would send more) but the PR downside of politically embarrassing a US administration is enormous relative to the tactical gain of a few fancy tanks getting stuck in the mud.
I was drifting towards despair after some of your recent analyses. Your remarks about Ukrainian effectiveness behind Russian lines gave me a glimmer of hope.
I keep asking myself, though, whether the aid definitely to be delivered contains stuff that will ensble resistance a)/to glide bombs on the front line and b) to power stations around Ukrainian cities?
Tom: first of all, thank you, as always.
Do you know if any of the GMLRS or GLSDB munitions have M-code-enabled receivers? And if so, any chance those might be supplied to Ukraine, and spot beams turned on over Ukrainian territory?
Sorry. No idea. I'll check: perhaps there's somebody ready to say.