It seems like you had a good day. Your sarcasm is even more refreshing than usual, and it's not because of your sparing use of the word "heroic."
I just want to erase this whole Wagner thing from my brain now. Whether staged or not, it's ridiculous what the people involved say because nothing fits together and everyone contradicts themselves every two days.
Regarding Kherson. I found it interesting to read from pro-Russian sources (whose statements should of course be viewed with skepticism) that the Ukrainians crossed the Dnepr and at the same time the Russians requested air support on the ground and their requests literally "were not answered".
Well, a day later someone answered and the VKS flew a few attacks in the area (no idea with what) and hit absolutely nothing according to the Russians themselves.
Generally, VKS tactical ops - which never shined with their precision - were severely disrupted this weeked by this 'Prigozhin's coup attempt' story. Which is why all the Wagner crews were promptly distanced from all the air bases, already yesterday: as (heroic) 'traitors'.
That said, they did fly a few strikes, especially against ZSU positions in the Marinka area.
There are no commissars already, it's an old soviet call of these people on positions who picks up new rectuters for AFU. Their new position name - chief of centre of social support and bla-bla. However Ukrainian people still used to call them voencoms (war commissars).
One can certainly buy your way out of the ZSU draft. Ukrainian friends of mine in the UK openly admitted this of their male relatives. It's no egalitarian utopia over there by any means.
b) where a future soldier will fight (in what military formation).
Even at peace times such people were notorious for their corruption. Now, when for many it's a question of life or death, illegal profits increased tenfold.
P.S. Thanks for a map link (Pouletvolant3). There're things and actions I can't perceive. Could you please explain the purpose of Russian pushing westward (to Orichovo-Vasylivka), when the adversary attack from the south and from the north, endangering to close the cauldron? (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzevUQJXgAIWoMA?format=jpg&name=large)
Re: slow offensive: It's such a meme topic nowadays that I dared to go back to the maps. the russians started to grind towards Bakhmut about the end of last June, northwwards from Svitlodarsk. In about a year they have managed to conquer about 1000 km2 in a roughly 20x50 km square. that was their territorial gain of 12 months of bitter fights.
The UAF has already managed ro recapture about 140 sqkm in the south and about 20 around Bakhmut - in a month. Both offensive were driven against built up defenses, only the UAF has no real air power and had often shortage of ammo and weaponry in the past 12 months. So even with my inherent scepticism and pessimism I must say that maybe the UAF offensive isn't spectacular, but never worse.
Question: how serious do you think the UAF bridgehead at Oleshky? IMHO it's more like a diversion attack, to bring some of the weapons there instead of the southern front, but "thanks" to blowing up the dam, it's much easier and faster to cross the river, so they have chances. (Not to mention that they had got some bridging and river crossing eqipment from the Germans too...)
That's the 'problem' with bridgeheads: if one fails to contain them, they can become 'everything', including 'massive problems', and that despite a Spetsnaz Brigade in the second line of defence...
What a dose of good ole’ sarcasm. You’re in your prime, Tom!
Is great to check from you the details about the bridgehead across the Dnipro (never was “bridgehead” more acurate), ‘cause is the putinist mantra this days. Better is to know how the whole frontline shocks are developing.
And because it touch me at home, yes, some “3rd rate” siloviki are purchasing great villas in Spain (as far I’m be able to check). But remember, a 1/3 of the government here are pseudo communists that adore everything Russian as if the USSR still existed, and the rest are pseudo socialist only interested in remain in the government to any cost. So, shamely, nobody check the money’s origin and cleaness.
Which reminds me of the following: I've got a lot to do with people from Africa: always some resarch about one of wars 'overthere'.... and so, I simply can't stop wondering: how comes they all consider 'Russia = USSR', but 'Ukraine = no USSR'.... where at the time that USSR was 'helping them' (usually by dumping obsolete, and often entirely useless weapons upon diverse liberation movements), Ukraine was a part of the USSR, and plenty of their officers were actually trained in (between others) the Soviet Ukraine...
In all the years, I've never received even one answer to that question: apparently, the people do not even understand the concept of 'Ukraine = used to be a part of the USSR'....
You’re right. Someone I know call the ZSU a “colonial army” (in fact he called it “colonialist” and I need to explain to him the difference), because (in true putinist way, or russianliar, as you say), Ukraine put the men, outsiders the weapons and the direction (!!!).
The same people that throw everything against Blackwater PMC (and probably with reason), hail Wagner as “true Russian heroes”, and Putin as a new Napoleon (or Sun Tzu) for “deploy” the “seasoned heroes of Wagner PMC” at “only 100kms from Kyiv”. Delusions or powerful weed?
It's quite usual that when empires fall apart one of the pieces (usually the one with the capital) claims the "legacy of the empire" while the rest are considered "liberated". People like simplicity and continuity.
Think about Yugoslavia and the Austrian Empire for example, nobody credits or blames Slovenia and Croatia for their achievements and failures.
And as for "historical gratitude" - the Bulgarian national day is celebrated on the day some Russian diplomat signed a bilateral peace treaty with the Ottoman Empire (which would have liberated modern Bulgaria but actually didn't as it was later voided and renegotiated). A lot of monuments and streets hold the names of pretty much every Russian aristocrat involved. Most "true bulgarian patriots" claim everyone rejecting our "debt to Russia" is rejecting Bulgarian nationality itself. Due to the great legacy of communist education history teachers tend to gloss over how just a few years later the next Russian tsar was disappointed Bulgaria was not acting subservient enough and tried to destroy it out of spite. So funny thing, historical gratitude...
Heh....reminds me of everybody 'celebrating' the Secessionist War in the USA for 'liberating slaves'.
Actually, the North might have won the war, but subsequently the entire campaign collapsed in peace, with the 'former South' imposing segregation laws, often worse than before - the legacy of which is troubling the entire country until this very day....
....and nobody ever heard of several of such affairs like the 'Tulsa Race Massacre ' of 1921...
That was pretty much inevitable, due to the Union's strategy of first blockading and then destroying much of the South's economy.
You then had two groups fighting over control of a declining economy. The North tried to control things through military force, but eventually decided it was simply too expensive to garrison a quarter of the country., and left the majority to rule pretty much the way they wanted.
But it did lead to the venerable US tactic of destroying everything in sight, vice using maneuver to defeat the enemy.
A few days ago (Juneteenth) a Republican pundit tweeted a typical type of comment, that in no other country but the US had Union soldiers shed blood to free slaves. Of course, shed blood against whom - who did the enslaving - is talking "critical race theory" and should be forbidden by law.
Oklahoma actually went to some effort to suppress the historical record of the Tulsa Massacre in the past - and maybe in the future again?
Great report Tom thanks, it sound to me like the AFU are slowly but surely hammering their way forward, its looking good in all directions and I really like the bridgehead at Antonovsky Bridge while not a big force but as you posted enough to keep the Rats in place ready to flee
Russians obviously have much more anti-aircraft systems they can drive 1000 km column and shot 7 aircrafts in 1 day while Ukraine cannot even advance 5 km behind enemy line, not to mention,occupy Belgorod.
Russiests have never reached Kyiv. All the shootings inside the city was just mistaken friendly fire. As you already may know, they could get so close to Kyiv with ceremonial uniform inside their vehicles (even court's decision about traitor Yanucovych retrieval as a president of UA was made ready), capture the South in 3 days because of treason, as many believes, in office of president and general staff of UA.
I don`t quite get the meaning of your comment. If it is about "the greatness of Russia" these days we have seen the great stupidity and the great baseness of Russian population.
Ah, so refreshing to read good old reporting on events "in the real world". Last days of sociopaths political theater made me puke and my hemorrhoids got worse. Thank you for your sane effort and analysis Tom.
After Prigo's team ran a thousand Km through Russia with no real opposition some in Ukraine must wonder why they do not give up their Middle Ages chivalry approach, cross the border and make the shorter run to Moscow. Or turn right and run behind the Russian lines.
I think it's not really correct to compare reaction of VSRF on Wagner and AFU. Wagner is covered by Puylo so no one knew how to react. This trick will not work for AFU
It's a lil' bit different to drive from the rear of the VSRF even deeper into the rear of the VSRF - than to actually assault the VSRF's front in order to become able of driving into the rear of the VSRF...
True but soldiers associated with Ukraine seem to dance across the Belgorod border whenever they want to. Anyway Ukraine will continue to soldier on with one hand tied behind their backs due to nuclear threats and Western restrictions on armament use (not over the border).
Whatever this means from today and no mention of Prigo
"Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Tuesday that it will drop the case against the Wagner paramilitary group, after its fighters staged an attempted rebellion on Saturday that threatened President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power."
Regarding this Prigozhin 'adventure'. Had conversation with friend who said UAF spoiled chance to get use of this situation on the battlefield. My point was that timeframe was too narrow and people on frontlines didn't even know what's happening, so influence of that ride was about zero on tactical/operational level. What's on your mind?
Yup. Something like 'most obvious effect' was the lessening of the pace of Russian air strikes for about two days: on the ground, there was no let-up, though.
That said, it's not like the ZSU didn't try to exploit the situation: it's rather so that Prigozhin never disturbed VSRF's operations in Ukraine - nor ever intended to do so.
I find quite infuriating that Russians are still attacking civilian buildings are people.
On the other hand, these rockets and drones are not available for attacking UKR troops on the front... So I suppose that these terrorist attacks aren't very helpful for the Russian army.
And western analysts "disappointed" by lack of quick progress? Seriously now? After under-delivering weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, they are now complaining about lack of progress? And something about some F-16s available to Ukraine?
How many M1 Abrams and Challenger 2s are involved in the battle? At least, we know that Leopard 2s and Bradleys were involved. And some countermeasures against Ka-52 and Lancets would be quite useful (Stingers and Gepards have quite a short range)
The lack of AFU's quick progress in assault is obvious also due to extensive mining by enemy of very large territory of South of UA during a 7 months freeze of war there while playing in wagner's heroic victory in Bahmut. AFU needs to destroy russists' fortification lines first before large scale infantry advancement on enemy positions. This is what they are busy with now.
Sure, demining prepared defence positions is not fast or easy.
Having better coverage for the demining equipment and infantry would help, though (mostly surface to air weapons and artillery etc, I guess). Losing a minefield clearing vehicle before even the battle starts is a big delay
Me too… it should be made know their aircrew responsible will be charged with dr8mes against humanity and anything else resembling a cowardly act unconnected to conventional war. The problem being they took no meaningful censure over their behaviour in Syria… appeasement doesn’t work 9 times out of 10.
This was good to refresh my day. Small but essential correction if you care. Borisov is not military commander of Odessa region. He is in charge of mobilisation efforts there. This may givee some clue to suddent enrichment of his family, is not it?
Thanks a lot Tom
It seems like you had a good day. Your sarcasm is even more refreshing than usual, and it's not because of your sparing use of the word "heroic."
I just want to erase this whole Wagner thing from my brain now. Whether staged or not, it's ridiculous what the people involved say because nothing fits together and everyone contradicts themselves every two days.
Regarding Kherson. I found it interesting to read from pro-Russian sources (whose statements should of course be viewed with skepticism) that the Ukrainians crossed the Dnepr and at the same time the Russians requested air support on the ground and their requests literally "were not answered".
Well, a day later someone answered and the VKS flew a few attacks in the area (no idea with what) and hit absolutely nothing according to the Russians themselves.
The heroic VKS seems to be in bad shape again.
Generally, VKS tactical ops - which never shined with their precision - were severely disrupted this weeked by this 'Prigozhin's coup attempt' story. Which is why all the Wagner crews were promptly distanced from all the air bases, already yesterday: as (heroic) 'traitors'.
That said, they did fly a few strikes, especially against ZSU positions in the Marinka area.
"Must be a lucrative job, to be a commissar in Ukraine" - you bet it is. And especially in the city of Odesa.
Didn't even know there are 'Commissars' in Ukraine. What's their function?
There are no commissars already, it's an old soviet call of these people on positions who picks up new rectuters for AFU. Their new position name - chief of centre of social support and bla-bla. However Ukrainian people still used to call them voencoms (war commissars).
So basically it’s whoever heads up the voyenkomat?
They filter out conscripts and mobilized persons unfit for service.
Thx. Guess, I better do not ask how do they 'earn' money to buy lots of real estate in Spain. then....
Why not ask? Unless this was a rhetorical question.
Bribes.
One can certainly buy your way out of the ZSU draft. Ukrainian friends of mine in the UK openly admitted this of their male relatives. It's no egalitarian utopia over there by any means.
Geez, sounds like some "Good Soldier Svejk" stuff.
They master the recruit center, i.e. they decide:
a) who will fight and who won't, and
b) where a future soldier will fight (in what military formation).
Even at peace times such people were notorious for their corruption. Now, when for many it's a question of life or death, illegal profits increased tenfold.
P.S. Thanks for a map link (Pouletvolant3). There're things and actions I can't perceive. Could you please explain the purpose of Russian pushing westward (to Orichovo-Vasylivka), when the adversary attack from the south and from the north, endangering to close the cauldron? (https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FzevUQJXgAIWoMA?format=jpg&name=large)
Большое спасибо
Thank you very much for the update!
Re: slow offensive: It's such a meme topic nowadays that I dared to go back to the maps. the russians started to grind towards Bakhmut about the end of last June, northwwards from Svitlodarsk. In about a year they have managed to conquer about 1000 km2 in a roughly 20x50 km square. that was their territorial gain of 12 months of bitter fights.
The UAF has already managed ro recapture about 140 sqkm in the south and about 20 around Bakhmut - in a month. Both offensive were driven against built up defenses, only the UAF has no real air power and had often shortage of ammo and weaponry in the past 12 months. So even with my inherent scepticism and pessimism I must say that maybe the UAF offensive isn't spectacular, but never worse.
Question: how serious do you think the UAF bridgehead at Oleshky? IMHO it's more like a diversion attack, to bring some of the weapons there instead of the southern front, but "thanks" to blowing up the dam, it's much easier and faster to cross the river, so they have chances. (Not to mention that they had got some bridging and river crossing eqipment from the Germans too...)
That's the 'problem' with bridgeheads: if one fails to contain them, they can become 'everything', including 'massive problems', and that despite a Spetsnaz Brigade in the second line of defence...
Are those Spetsnaz Brigades actually as filled up with new recruits as other formations like the VDV for example?
Right now: no idea. Should be 'regulars', 'kontraktniki'....but simply no reliable info in this regards.
Fairly “unheroic” summary, in other words high quality 😉. Appreciated! Have a good evening!
One question: Can you recommend a source for a map, in order to reconcile/follow the various villages/progress you mention?
'Inperfect, but getting better' regarding maps (obviously, people have a life, and thus one is usually about 24-36 hours 'behind'):
https://twitter.com/Pouletvolant3
What a dose of good ole’ sarcasm. You’re in your prime, Tom!
Is great to check from you the details about the bridgehead across the Dnipro (never was “bridgehead” more acurate), ‘cause is the putinist mantra this days. Better is to know how the whole frontline shocks are developing.
And because it touch me at home, yes, some “3rd rate” siloviki are purchasing great villas in Spain (as far I’m be able to check). But remember, a 1/3 of the government here are pseudo communists that adore everything Russian as if the USSR still existed, and the rest are pseudo socialist only interested in remain in the government to any cost. So, shamely, nobody check the money’s origin and cleaness.
Keep on with the good work.
Which reminds me of the following: I've got a lot to do with people from Africa: always some resarch about one of wars 'overthere'.... and so, I simply can't stop wondering: how comes they all consider 'Russia = USSR', but 'Ukraine = no USSR'.... where at the time that USSR was 'helping them' (usually by dumping obsolete, and often entirely useless weapons upon diverse liberation movements), Ukraine was a part of the USSR, and plenty of their officers were actually trained in (between others) the Soviet Ukraine...
In all the years, I've never received even one answer to that question: apparently, the people do not even understand the concept of 'Ukraine = used to be a part of the USSR'....
You’re right. Someone I know call the ZSU a “colonial army” (in fact he called it “colonialist” and I need to explain to him the difference), because (in true putinist way, or russianliar, as you say), Ukraine put the men, outsiders the weapons and the direction (!!!).
The same people that throw everything against Blackwater PMC (and probably with reason), hail Wagner as “true Russian heroes”, and Putin as a new Napoleon (or Sun Tzu) for “deploy” the “seasoned heroes of Wagner PMC” at “only 100kms from Kyiv”. Delusions or powerful weed?
It's quite usual that when empires fall apart one of the pieces (usually the one with the capital) claims the "legacy of the empire" while the rest are considered "liberated". People like simplicity and continuity.
Think about Yugoslavia and the Austrian Empire for example, nobody credits or blames Slovenia and Croatia for their achievements and failures.
And as for "historical gratitude" - the Bulgarian national day is celebrated on the day some Russian diplomat signed a bilateral peace treaty with the Ottoman Empire (which would have liberated modern Bulgaria but actually didn't as it was later voided and renegotiated). A lot of monuments and streets hold the names of pretty much every Russian aristocrat involved. Most "true bulgarian patriots" claim everyone rejecting our "debt to Russia" is rejecting Bulgarian nationality itself. Due to the great legacy of communist education history teachers tend to gloss over how just a few years later the next Russian tsar was disappointed Bulgaria was not acting subservient enough and tried to destroy it out of spite. So funny thing, historical gratitude...
Heh....reminds me of everybody 'celebrating' the Secessionist War in the USA for 'liberating slaves'.
Actually, the North might have won the war, but subsequently the entire campaign collapsed in peace, with the 'former South' imposing segregation laws, often worse than before - the legacy of which is troubling the entire country until this very day....
....and nobody ever heard of several of such affairs like the 'Tulsa Race Massacre ' of 1921...
That was pretty much inevitable, due to the Union's strategy of first blockading and then destroying much of the South's economy.
You then had two groups fighting over control of a declining economy. The North tried to control things through military force, but eventually decided it was simply too expensive to garrison a quarter of the country., and left the majority to rule pretty much the way they wanted.
But it did lead to the venerable US tactic of destroying everything in sight, vice using maneuver to defeat the enemy.
A few days ago (Juneteenth) a Republican pundit tweeted a typical type of comment, that in no other country but the US had Union soldiers shed blood to free slaves. Of course, shed blood against whom - who did the enslaving - is talking "critical race theory" and should be forbidden by law.
Oklahoma actually went to some effort to suppress the historical record of the Tulsa Massacre in the past - and maybe in the future again?
Great report Tom thanks, it sound to me like the AFU are slowly but surely hammering their way forward, its looking good in all directions and I really like the bridgehead at Antonovsky Bridge while not a big force but as you posted enough to keep the Rats in place ready to flee
Russians obviously have much more anti-aircraft systems they can drive 1000 km column and shot 7 aircrafts in 1 day while Ukraine cannot even advance 5 km behind enemy line, not to mention,occupy Belgorod.
Russians themself can easily occupy it in 1 day
Yup. Exactly like they reached Kyiv in.....was it 3 hours, the last year?
Russiests have never reached Kyiv. All the shootings inside the city was just mistaken friendly fire. As you already may know, they could get so close to Kyiv with ceremonial uniform inside their vehicles (even court's decision about traitor Yanucovych retrieval as a president of UA was made ready), capture the South in 3 days because of treason, as many believes, in office of president and general staff of UA.
They were stopped in Moshchun by blasting the lower Irpin dam. Moshchun is about 5 km from Pushcha-Vodytsya which is considered to be a part of Kyiv.
Irpin city, which was also occupied in part, is about 7 km from Novobilychi district of Kyiv.
And Berlin in 2 days. I wonder why it took one year to occupy the ruins of Bakhmut.
1 year for Bahmut but 1 hour for Rostov and Kursk
I don`t quite get the meaning of your comment. If it is about "the greatness of Russia" these days we have seen the great stupidity and the great baseness of Russian population.
I guess he means it took 1 hour for Stalin to annex Rostov, Kursk and Crimea, Kuban, other territories from Ukraine in 1919.
Russian tradition is to glorify criminals and cannibals.
I think he's rather writing about the wagnerites raid.
Ah, so refreshing to read good old reporting on events "in the real world". Last days of sociopaths political theater made me puke and my hemorrhoids got worse. Thank you for your sane effort and analysis Tom.
After Prigo's team ran a thousand Km through Russia with no real opposition some in Ukraine must wonder why they do not give up their Middle Ages chivalry approach, cross the border and make the shorter run to Moscow. Or turn right and run behind the Russian lines.
I think it's not really correct to compare reaction of VSRF on Wagner and AFU. Wagner is covered by Puylo so no one knew how to react. This trick will not work for AFU
It's a lil' bit different to drive from the rear of the VSRF even deeper into the rear of the VSRF - than to actually assault the VSRF's front in order to become able of driving into the rear of the VSRF...
True but soldiers associated with Ukraine seem to dance across the Belgorod border whenever they want to. Anyway Ukraine will continue to soldier on with one hand tied behind their backs due to nuclear threats and Western restrictions on armament use (not over the border).
Whatever this means from today and no mention of Prigo
"Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) said on Tuesday that it will drop the case against the Wagner paramilitary group, after its fighters staged an attempted rebellion on Saturday that threatened President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power."
Some sources say Wagner is instructed to hand over heavy weapons to the MOD.
Ukraine will be drinking champagne.
The whole Pudding approach to this situation is muddled, I believe he had a memento mori moment.
Regarding this Prigozhin 'adventure'. Had conversation with friend who said UAF spoiled chance to get use of this situation on the battlefield. My point was that timeframe was too narrow and people on frontlines didn't even know what's happening, so influence of that ride was about zero on tactical/operational level. What's on your mind?
Yup. Something like 'most obvious effect' was the lessening of the pace of Russian air strikes for about two days: on the ground, there was no let-up, though.
That said, it's not like the ZSU didn't try to exploit the situation: it's rather so that Prigozhin never disturbed VSRF's operations in Ukraine - nor ever intended to do so.
Ever powerful attention to your moniker not great news but reasonable and understandable. The C/O best get a wiggle on.
I find quite infuriating that Russians are still attacking civilian buildings are people.
On the other hand, these rockets and drones are not available for attacking UKR troops on the front... So I suppose that these terrorist attacks aren't very helpful for the Russian army.
And western analysts "disappointed" by lack of quick progress? Seriously now? After under-delivering weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, they are now complaining about lack of progress? And something about some F-16s available to Ukraine?
How many M1 Abrams and Challenger 2s are involved in the battle? At least, we know that Leopard 2s and Bradleys were involved. And some countermeasures against Ka-52 and Lancets would be quite useful (Stingers and Gepards have quite a short range)
The lack of AFU's quick progress in assault is obvious also due to extensive mining by enemy of very large territory of South of UA during a 7 months freeze of war there while playing in wagner's heroic victory in Bahmut. AFU needs to destroy russists' fortification lines first before large scale infantry advancement on enemy positions. This is what they are busy with now.
Sure, demining prepared defence positions is not fast or easy.
Having better coverage for the demining equipment and infantry would help, though (mostly surface to air weapons and artillery etc, I guess). Losing a minefield clearing vehicle before even the battle starts is a big delay
Me too… it should be made know their aircrew responsible will be charged with dr8mes against humanity and anything else resembling a cowardly act unconnected to conventional war. The problem being they took no meaningful censure over their behaviour in Syria… appeasement doesn’t work 9 times out of 10.
This was good to refresh my day. Small but essential correction if you care. Borisov is not military commander of Odessa region. He is in charge of mobilisation efforts there. This may givee some clue to suddent enrichment of his family, is not it?
Thanks, thought it sounded slightly off.. but that fits. Needs locking up
Thank you. Good read.
Your sarcasm is overwhelming
:-)