Ukraine War, 26 August 2023

Hello everybody!

Another quick update, kind of ‘in between‘ of ‘getting back to work’ and ‘not yet there’.

Generally, while I was ‘away’, there were no ‘major’ developments of strategic-, or even operational-level of importance. Nevertheless, the fighting is going on and becoming particularly bitter – especially so in southern Ukraine. Both sides are reporting ‘heavy’ losses of multiple of their units.

AIR/MISSILE WARFARE

‘Main news’ in this aspect of the war of the last few days was a Ukrainian attack on positions of the Russian 31^st Air Defence Division, on 21 or 22 August. The latter is responsible for air defence of the occupied Crimea, and including – between others – four brigades equipped with S-400 SAM-systems (ASCC/NATO reporting name ‘SA-21 Growler’). Of course, the 40+ S-400-launchers the Russians have on the Crimea are protected by additional units operating shorter-ranged Pantsyrs (SA-22; at least 24 launchers), Tors (SA-15; at least 12 launchers), and Buks (SA-17; at least 12 launchers). Main positions of the 31^st Division’s deployment are (clockwise, as always):

-          Dzhankoi

-          Fedosiia

-          Sevastopol, and

-          Yevpatoriia

Well, on 21 or 22 August, the ZSU used modified Neptune anti-ship missiles to strike the 3^rd Radio Technical Regiment (see: radars) of the 31^st AD outside the village of Mayak. Moreovoer, it knocked a Nebo-M and Kasta-2E2 radars deployed on the Tarkhanut peninsula. Moreover, Ukrainians followed-up with an attack of their special forces that then planed the flag of Ukraine on the Crimea - for the first time since 2014.

That way, Ukrainians opened the way for some 40 UAVs that, during the night of 25 August, attacked Russian bases in Simferopol, Sevastopol, Saki, near Meganom, and on Tarkhanut. A day later, they also hit the HQ of the 126^th Coastal Defence Brigade in Perevalne. More about this in the ‘Part 3’ of my ‘interrupted’ feature on Saints, Thunders & Lightnings…  

Ah yes, and: Ukrainian UAV strikes on Moscow are meanwhile taking place almost every day.

For the Russian part: over the last week they’ve run sporadic, small-scale air strikes, cruise missile strikes, and LPGM-strikes on targets in southern Ukraine. Generally, the PSU claimed a success rate of 93% against Shahed-136 LPGMs and 100% against cruise missiles, but seems not to have been successful in regards of such weaponry like Su-34-released Kh-59 precision guided missiles.

BATTLE OF DONBAS

Kupyansk-Svatove-Kremina….continuous, unsuccessful Russian diversionary attacks in the areas of Novoyehorivka, Kremina, and Bilohorivka, with some Ukrainian counterattacks.

Bakhmut…lots of Russian attacks north of the ruined town, for almost a week, with lots of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. Most were quickly dealt with – by a combination of (Ukrainian-laid) minefields and ZSU’s artillery. Minor Ukrainian advances were reported west of Zaliznyanske

Avdiivka…unsuccessful Russian attacks in the areas of Novomykhailivka and Mariinka, and Nevelske…

UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE

The good thing about ‘not working’ for a few days is that there are lots of news in regards of what’s going on in southern Zaporizhzhya. Few corrections, too. Sadly, there are few things still ‘covered by the fog of war’, too…

Staromlynivka…(Russian 35^th CAA) …in reaction to earlier Ukrainian pincer attack on Staromlynivka, the Russians began deploying the 336^th NIB and the 5^th Tank Brigade to the flanks of their defences of this village.

Tokmak…(Russian 58^th CAA) …main news is that around 24-25 August, the ZSU has entered Novoprokopivka. What is unclear is how far did it get by now. The Russians began reporting the village – held by the 56^th and 108^th VDV Regiments (both from the 7^th VDV Division) – as ‘lost’, and that already two days ago. Around the same time Ukrainians reported the re-deployment of the 503^rd MRR into the village.

As for the stretch of the frontline from Novoprovopivka via the Hill 166 to Verbove: ZSU seems to have deployed the 46^th Airborne in this area, but is otherwise zip-lip. With one exception: have received a denial that the ZSU has reached the Hill 166.

The Russian contacts say their frontline was ‘penetrated in two sectors’; furthermore, some are indicating that half of Verbove should be under ZSU’s control. Heavy fighting is reported from the Novopokrovka area, too.

Further to the (Russian) rear, Ukrainian artillery is (heavily) pounding Chervonohirka and Ocheretuvate, some 10km south of the frontline, as well as Novofedorivka, north-east of Verbove. The Russian artillery is reported as ‘not active’ in this sector of the frontline, i.e. ‘sillenced’ by Ukrainian artillery. However, the VSRF is deploying lots of Lancets, mortars, Su-25s (either one or two were claimed shot down ‘in the Robotyne area’, yesterday), plus – on average – some 9-10 MPK/UMPK glide bombs from Su-34s per day.

Dnipro… It appears the Russian 205^th Motor Rifle Brigade is unhappy. Or at least the relatives of its troops are unhappy. They’re reporting that the unit is encircled (by Ukrainians, of course: no Mars People) in the Kozachi Laheri area, sent into pointless counterattacks in which it’s suffering heavy losses, and that neighbouring units are refusing to come to its support. If truth, then this means that the ZSU bridgehead in this area is not only ‘still around’, but very much active, too.

Otherwise, me thinks the most important news from this area is the establishment of the 18^th CAA. This is a part of the Dnepr Group and deployed on the southern bank of the Dnipro River, opposite to Kherson (city). It’s core is the XXII Army Crops, with the 47^th Motor Rifle Division. With other words: the Russians are continuing the process of withdrawing their units from this sector, and sending them as reinforcements to the hard-pressed 58th CAA.