Thank you, Tom. Looking forward to your next big update.
Btw - not much sarcasm this time. Not even a word about certain ... air traffic incedent... that resulted in ... timely... demise of ... certain leaders of Wagner company.
Hard to explain.,.. for me, the Wagner PMC is simply 'System Putin': an opaque mix of intrigue and corruption between the GRU, FSB and the Keystone Cops in Moscow. Worth attention when it comes to studying certain combat experiences (see: Syria, Libya, Popasna, Bakhmut), but otherwise: I simply do not understand all the public attention about this topic.
Well it is basically like the Trump phenomenon. If you have a news show you need to report something every day and the more grotesque or appaling the better. Russians understood that long ago and so did Trump. On of those Russians was Prigozhin. He delivered well for the Western news, taking the narrative partly into his hand.
Western media miss him as much as they miss Trump. Too much easy money to make with an even easier job.
Thanks. Really cuts through some of the less militarily astute observations in various news channels.
But I'm sure Wagner will swing into action to stem the Ukrainian tide...oops, doesn't seem to be any more Wagner, at least under the control of their late commanders.
Thanks for report. What do you mean when say about mortar deployment. Like mortars especially 82 mm are very common in army. Do you mean 240 mm mortars.
Secondly, why doesn't PSU launch at least one Patriot unit in area of controffensive Of course risk of destruction increases but isn't this risk smaller than everyday bombardment of attacking brigades with UMPK?
1.) 82mm, 120mm.... yes, up to those of 240mm (though they're usually quickly found and knocked out by the ZSU). There's lots of use of T-80BVs and T-62Ms as 'self-propelled artillery', nowadays. For the ZSU-troops, a lot of their fire is 'like mortars'.
2.) Because it has only two operational systems in service. They are barely enough to protect Kyiv and Odesa. Thus, other, more mobile systems, but with less range (like IRIS-T) are more often near the frontline.
Russian proverb says: Let the dog die a dog's death. But no dog is so evil and corrupt as Prigozhin was. This "catastrophe" reminds me of the similar occurrence with Lingh Biao in 1971, the minister of defense and Mao Tsetung's former "right hand".
Even if Viktor Bout is involved: what is that going to change?
Nothing. Wagner was and remains a 'quasi-PMC': a front for the GRU's and FSB's operations, and the tool for pocketing billions from the Russian federal budget.
Prigozhin took Wagner out of Ukraine due to a conflict with the Ministry of Defense, now they will appoint a leader loyal to the authorities and this may mean that they will return to the battlefield again? It seems to me that it is not beneficial for putin to simply let such a group roam free, if only because they can again go to moscow for revenge. The best option is to simply eliminate everyone on the battlefield and a new loyal leader can do that
Really after the attack on Novorossiysk it seemed that ZSU had nothing more to surprise us. But the latest events in Crimea are in fact stupor mundi. Ukrainian officials are mostly silent about the battle in Donbass and on the left bank of Dnipro. Thank you for the valuable information. Slava ZSU!
Nope. Because there is nothing firm in sense of figures, beyond troops saying they've suffered 'heavy' losses. I can't go 'catching' every single contact for a 'definition' (for what does he/she mean with 'heavy'): only gauge that, from experience, this might mean anything between 2 and 9-10 KIA, and 30-40 WIA - for a specific unit, though over an (usually) undetermined period, which can be a stint of anything between 2-3- and 15 days.
Simply impossible to say, thus not discussing this anywhere beyond that point. 'Heavy'.
Many thanks for the update. More because is in middle your well earned rest. Seems something is going on “here and there”, so I hope for more detailed news in the next days.
In the meantime, thanks again for the effort. You’re entitled to a drink with little umbrella (if you fancy that), or a good ole’ Warsteiner (your choice).
The amphibious attack on the Crimea to me looks a little pointless with only raising a flag. On one hand of course I understand that it was a show of force, Russians need to station more troops there from now, etc. On the other hand if they can do it, why don't do it in a more harmful way? To me it looks like the counting coup of the plain indians, except that the UAF WANTS to harm the Russians not just show superior battle skills.
Other topic: looks like the most likely achievable immediate goal of the offensive is cutting off Tokmak, hopefully liberating it. It was a 30k inhabitants town, and fell into Russian hands in three days, so most likely most of the civil population stuck there. Unlike Kherson, I doubt that the VSRF simply withdraw from there - IMHO they will try a reverse Bakhmut-siege, stalling the UAF as long as it takes. there is a full strongpoint circle around the town, and if the UAF breaks through from Robotyne, probably will be intensive minefields in front of them. The UAF hardly wants to level the town and potentially kill thousands of their own civilians. How big the VSRF garrison could be? Can it be "starve out" of ammo, forcing them to surrender without streetfights, with the present abilities of the two sides?
There were some rumours that one target of the commando raid was a Russian Shahed launch and control station. I dismissed these in my mind but when I read that Aug 24/25 they only launched one Shahed against Odessa it made me wonder.
But then why use commandos instead of missiles unless they wanted some souvenirs of control stations for technical analysis?
I highly doubt they swam across the black sea just to stick a flag on the pole. That's just a cheap PR bonus point. The whole operation was definitely much more than that and we probably won't find out any time soon.
While the Doolittle raid didn't inflicted serious damage, the planes didn't just merely fly over Japan, they had targets to destroy. Indeed this attack might also had, but - for any reasons - they didn't want to communique about it.
It's more interesting how their managers react to their refusal. If they let the guys leave the front line, other patriots will follow. If they punish the guys, others will become even more angry. Everybody blames Putin for the assasination of Prigozhin, who is now a national hero and martyr. And he even dared to imprison Girkin - another critical patriot.
Rosgvardia recently got APC. Now they seem to be the strongest paramilitary power in the country. They can easily capture all the major cities if they are able to organize themselves, the nationalists and ex-Wagner.
For me the case resembles Stalin who used to kill his ministers after they worked for him for a couple of years. Nobody near Putin can be safe from now on as he violated his promise and seems to have assassinated the person that spared him. He is a rabid dog now, extremely dangerous if left alive.
If they have guts, they will find a way to save themselves. Otherwise, they'll be killed one by one.
scream on telegram… yes that is all that will happen. Otherwise Putin is still filmlyd in charge and has demonstrates the cost of crossing him. Of course everybody no knows that they need to get rid Putin first, then make the coup, but that is probably not easy. Some more military defeats are needed. Unfortunately.
I don't think defeats matter now. Previously Putin balanced between his ministers (who care for money) and patriots (who want glory and czar), getting support from both. Recently he started suppressing the patriots. This changes from the totalitarian (where the popular opinion matters) to the authoritarian (one man to rule them all and in the darkness bind them) mode.
I really really doubt Putin will be able to eliminate all his enemies(perceived and real) in the security forces. I think as the Ukraine war progresses in the direction of Ukraine recapturing large territories, Putin stands a higher risk of suffering a coup. The Prigozhin fallout is just the start of Putin's troubles with the different factions.
Too little. Far too little. It would take entire brigades and divisions refusing to fight. The Russians are still well away from that level of frustration.
1.) If Ukrainian modified cruise missiles can fly and attack S-400 battery then surely this is something West needs to fund since they also manufacture them cheaper(at least before wartime). Very impressive.
2.) Thank you for the rough estimate of how many of the other GBADS the Russians have covering Crimea. It provides better understanding of Russian SAM coverage. Also with Ukrainians already harassing Crimea before recapturing Kherson and Zaporizhzia, goes to show how much easier it will be to seige Crimea from land sea and air with those territories back.
3.) It seems the Russians haven't mined the Kherson area across from the Ukrainian controlled parts nearly as much as the Zaporizhzia front. Hopefully the Ukrainians can expand the bridge head to the point they can launch a large attack across before Russians mine the whole area.
1.) Be sure, the West is not going to fund any kind of domestic arms industry in Ukraine: that would be counter-productive for its own interests. It's only Kyiv's investment into specific projects that is, sometimes, changing some of that (see cooperation with Rheinmetall, with South Koreans, Poles etc.).
2.) Re. Russian GBADs on Crimea: actually, I (still) intend to complete my feature to this topic, so 'stay tuned'. ;-)
3.) Oh, they did. Please, don't make any mistakes: they have. Arguably, much of their first line in that area - including millions of mines - was washed away when that scum mined the Kakhovka Dam, but they have surely mined their new defence line anew.
My goodness how many such mines do the Russians have/produce. Very unfortunate circumstances for the Ukrainian military really to deal with such conditions. And thank you looking forward to the new feature
During the summer campaign, Russian losses - utilization - of BMP-3 have plummeted, whereas T-90M losses have been (relatively) dramatic. To be specific, going by Oryx, BMP-3 cumulative losses have increased by 10% over three months, but T-90M losses by 70% in the same time period. The majority of T-90M losses have been in 2023, having been held back by and large after the opening phase, but the majority of this year's T-90M losses have been during the summer campaign alone.
If I'm not mistaken, T-90M are usually attached to units fighting in the north, though some may have appeared at Robotyne, but - which units are assigned BMP-3? It has to be quite a few more than are assigned T-90M, so it's even stranger not to see them participate than to see T-90M pushed into more reckless fixing offensives. Do the BMP-3 units typically compose part of the operational reserve nowadays? I can't think of another explanation for their apparent absence from most of the fighting.
I was getting tired of Pentagon Cover Your Ass by blaming everything on the Ukrainians mediatic campaign.
Oddly enough, while trying to shift blame, Americans officials are dropping jaw dropping fact about their support. Like the fact they planified a breakthrough with a force of only 8 000 fighters trained on battalion level ops..
I find it shocking but at the same time, this is the type of ineptitude I expect from the US DoD. I mean when you see a guy like Lloyd Austin rise to the highest office. It is a competition of who is the most inept dude.
I doubt you know about Llloyd Jr. Austin record. With a $500 millions program of Train & Equip which was supposed to train 5 400 Syrians fighters per year, he only trained "between 100 and 120". He then sent a pitiful a first group of 54 fighters to their death because after a full year he had nothing left to show for his reports. Naturally the group was utterly defeated within hours by a rival rebel group who was not even identified as the main enemy.
Latter Austin explained to a Congress audition how he had "four maybe five" fighters from his program still alive on the field. Actually there was nobody left : those who survived did so by laying low their weapons, understandably.
Knowing the man, now Secretary of Defence, it was foretold how the Train & Equip program for Ukraine would deliver a pathetic result and Americans would immediately try to cover their ass like they do now.
His pathetic attempt to cover his ass actually succeed because you see, for all the "work by through and with local partner forces" BS moto from the Pentagon, nobody cares to actually ask local partners what is going on. Be them Arab Syrians, Afghans or Ukrainians.
Dont mistake me. I wish the RuZZians were as bad as the Pentagon top brass so they could be stopped everywhere. From Mali & Centrafrique to Ukraine through Libya, Syria and the Caucassus.
Thank you, Tom. Looking forward to your next big update.
Btw - not much sarcasm this time. Not even a word about certain ... air traffic incedent... that resulted in ... timely... demise of ... certain leaders of Wagner company.
Hard to explain.,.. for me, the Wagner PMC is simply 'System Putin': an opaque mix of intrigue and corruption between the GRU, FSB and the Keystone Cops in Moscow. Worth attention when it comes to studying certain combat experiences (see: Syria, Libya, Popasna, Bakhmut), but otherwise: I simply do not understand all the public attention about this topic.
Thank you, Tom. That was sarcasm from me :-)
Well it is basically like the Trump phenomenon. If you have a news show you need to report something every day and the more grotesque or appaling the better. Russians understood that long ago and so did Trump. On of those Russians was Prigozhin. He delivered well for the Western news, taking the narrative partly into his hand.
Western media miss him as much as they miss Trump. Too much easy money to make with an even easier job.
Спасибо, Том.
Thanks. Really cuts through some of the less militarily astute observations in various news channels.
But I'm sure Wagner will swing into action to stem the Ukrainian tide...oops, doesn't seem to be any more Wagner, at least under the control of their late commanders.
Thanks for report. What do you mean when say about mortar deployment. Like mortars especially 82 mm are very common in army. Do you mean 240 mm mortars.
Secondly, why doesn't PSU launch at least one Patriot unit in area of controffensive Of course risk of destruction increases but isn't this risk smaller than everyday bombardment of attacking brigades with UMPK?
1.) 82mm, 120mm.... yes, up to those of 240mm (though they're usually quickly found and knocked out by the ZSU). There's lots of use of T-80BVs and T-62Ms as 'self-propelled artillery', nowadays. For the ZSU-troops, a lot of their fire is 'like mortars'.
2.) Because it has only two operational systems in service. They are barely enough to protect Kyiv and Odesa. Thus, other, more mobile systems, but with less range (like IRIS-T) are more often near the frontline.
Any mind's about wagner head
Russian proverb says: Let the dog die a dog's death. But no dog is so evil and corrupt as Prigozhin was. This "catastrophe" reminds me of the similar occurrence with Lingh Biao in 1971, the minister of defense and Mao Tsetung's former "right hand".
As explained above (or at least attempted): beyond the battlefield, not really interesting for me.
But there are rumors that the new leader of Wagner will be Viktor But, about whom you wrote one of the posts, although he is also behind the war)
Just curious about your opinion as you have much more information than others.
Интересный слух.
Even if Viktor Bout is involved: what is that going to change?
Nothing. Wagner was and remains a 'quasi-PMC': a front for the GRU's and FSB's operations, and the tool for pocketing billions from the Russian federal budget.
Prigozhin took Wagner out of Ukraine due to a conflict with the Ministry of Defense, now they will appoint a leader loyal to the authorities and this may mean that they will return to the battlefield again? It seems to me that it is not beneficial for putin to simply let such a group roam free, if only because they can again go to moscow for revenge. The best option is to simply eliminate everyone on the battlefield and a new loyal leader can do that
The fighters have no obligations towards any new leader
Really after the attack on Novorossiysk it seemed that ZSU had nothing more to surprise us. But the latest events in Crimea are in fact stupor mundi. Ukrainian officials are mostly silent about the battle in Donbass and on the left bank of Dnipro. Thank you for the valuable information. Slava ZSU!
Thanks for your updatres, much appreciated
Hi Tom,
Thanks for the update. Any estimates for Ukrainian casualties in the South? You said they were heavy but would you put any number?
Nope. Because there is nothing firm in sense of figures, beyond troops saying they've suffered 'heavy' losses. I can't go 'catching' every single contact for a 'definition' (for what does he/she mean with 'heavy'): only gauge that, from experience, this might mean anything between 2 and 9-10 KIA, and 30-40 WIA - for a specific unit, though over an (usually) undetermined period, which can be a stint of anything between 2-3- and 15 days.
Simply impossible to say, thus not discussing this anywhere beyond that point. 'Heavy'.
Many thanks for the update. More because is in middle your well earned rest. Seems something is going on “here and there”, so I hope for more detailed news in the next days.
In the meantime, thanks again for the effort. You’re entitled to a drink with little umbrella (if you fancy that), or a good ole’ Warsteiner (your choice).
Indeed, a lot is going on, and then on both sides of Novoprokopivka, but there are too few details to draw useful conclusions.
thank you for the update!
The amphibious attack on the Crimea to me looks a little pointless with only raising a flag. On one hand of course I understand that it was a show of force, Russians need to station more troops there from now, etc. On the other hand if they can do it, why don't do it in a more harmful way? To me it looks like the counting coup of the plain indians, except that the UAF WANTS to harm the Russians not just show superior battle skills.
Other topic: looks like the most likely achievable immediate goal of the offensive is cutting off Tokmak, hopefully liberating it. It was a 30k inhabitants town, and fell into Russian hands in three days, so most likely most of the civil population stuck there. Unlike Kherson, I doubt that the VSRF simply withdraw from there - IMHO they will try a reverse Bakhmut-siege, stalling the UAF as long as it takes. there is a full strongpoint circle around the town, and if the UAF breaks through from Robotyne, probably will be intensive minefields in front of them. The UAF hardly wants to level the town and potentially kill thousands of their own civilians. How big the VSRF garrison could be? Can it be "starve out" of ammo, forcing them to surrender without streetfights, with the present abilities of the two sides?
There were some rumours that one target of the commando raid was a Russian Shahed launch and control station. I dismissed these in my mind but when I read that Aug 24/25 they only launched one Shahed against Odessa it made me wonder.
But then why use commandos instead of missiles unless they wanted some souvenirs of control stations for technical analysis?
The Crimea landing could have brought some useful cargo for Tatar guerillas.
I highly doubt they swam across the black sea just to stick a flag on the pole. That's just a cheap PR bonus point. The whole operation was definitely much more than that and we probably won't find out any time soon.
The Doolittle-raid on Japan of 1942 was also 'pointless raising a flag', but it had military results, too. One can only gauge with hindsight.
While the Doolittle raid didn't inflicted serious damage, the planes didn't just merely fly over Japan, they had targets to destroy. Indeed this attack might also had, but - for any reasons - they didn't want to communique about it.
Rusich refuse to fight https://meduza.io/news/2023/08/25/neonatsistskaya-dshrg-rusich-ob-yavila-o-priostanovke-uchastiya-v-voyne-v-ukraine-gruppirovka-utverzhdaet-chto-vlasti-rf-ne-okazyvayut-pomosch-ih-lideru-zaderzhannomu-v-finlyandii
Are they of any importance?
It's more interesting how their managers react to their refusal. If they let the guys leave the front line, other patriots will follow. If they punish the guys, others will become even more angry. Everybody blames Putin for the assasination of Prigozhin, who is now a national hero and martyr. And he even dared to imprison Girkin - another critical patriot.
Rosgvardia recently got APC. Now they seem to be the strongest paramilitary power in the country. They can easily capture all the major cities if they are able to organize themselves, the nationalists and ex-Wagner.
For me the case resembles Stalin who used to kill his ministers after they worked for him for a couple of years. Nobody near Putin can be safe from now on as he violated his promise and seems to have assassinated the person that spared him. He is a rabid dog now, extremely dangerous if left alive.
If they have guts, they will find a way to save themselves. Otherwise, they'll be killed one by one.
If the can organize themselves… seems like a big If.
scream on telegram… yes that is all that will happen. Otherwise Putin is still filmlyd in charge and has demonstrates the cost of crossing him. Of course everybody no knows that they need to get rid Putin first, then make the coup, but that is probably not easy. Some more military defeats are needed. Unfortunately.
I don't think defeats matter now. Previously Putin balanced between his ministers (who care for money) and patriots (who want glory and czar), getting support from both. Recently he started suppressing the patriots. This changes from the totalitarian (where the popular opinion matters) to the authoritarian (one man to rule them all and in the darkness bind them) mode.
Probably right. Lets hope for more defeats anyhow.
I really really doubt Putin will be able to eliminate all his enemies(perceived and real) in the security forces. I think as the Ukraine war progresses in the direction of Ukraine recapturing large territories, Putin stands a higher risk of suffering a coup. The Prigozhin fallout is just the start of Putin's troubles with the different factions.
Too little. Far too little. It would take entire brigades and divisions refusing to fight. The Russians are still well away from that level of frustration.
Thanks for the timely report Tom sounds to me to be fairly good all around ,
1.) If Ukrainian modified cruise missiles can fly and attack S-400 battery then surely this is something West needs to fund since they also manufacture them cheaper(at least before wartime). Very impressive.
2.) Thank you for the rough estimate of how many of the other GBADS the Russians have covering Crimea. It provides better understanding of Russian SAM coverage. Also with Ukrainians already harassing Crimea before recapturing Kherson and Zaporizhzia, goes to show how much easier it will be to seige Crimea from land sea and air with those territories back.
3.) It seems the Russians haven't mined the Kherson area across from the Ukrainian controlled parts nearly as much as the Zaporizhzia front. Hopefully the Ukrainians can expand the bridge head to the point they can launch a large attack across before Russians mine the whole area.
1.) Be sure, the West is not going to fund any kind of domestic arms industry in Ukraine: that would be counter-productive for its own interests. It's only Kyiv's investment into specific projects that is, sometimes, changing some of that (see cooperation with Rheinmetall, with South Koreans, Poles etc.).
2.) Re. Russian GBADs on Crimea: actually, I (still) intend to complete my feature to this topic, so 'stay tuned'. ;-)
3.) Oh, they did. Please, don't make any mistakes: they have. Arguably, much of their first line in that area - including millions of mines - was washed away when that scum mined the Kakhovka Dam, but they have surely mined their new defence line anew.
My goodness how many such mines do the Russians have/produce. Very unfortunate circumstances for the Ukrainian military really to deal with such conditions. And thank you looking forward to the new feature
During the summer campaign, Russian losses - utilization - of BMP-3 have plummeted, whereas T-90M losses have been (relatively) dramatic. To be specific, going by Oryx, BMP-3 cumulative losses have increased by 10% over three months, but T-90M losses by 70% in the same time period. The majority of T-90M losses have been in 2023, having been held back by and large after the opening phase, but the majority of this year's T-90M losses have been during the summer campaign alone.
If I'm not mistaken, T-90M are usually attached to units fighting in the north, though some may have appeared at Robotyne, but - which units are assigned BMP-3? It has to be quite a few more than are assigned T-90M, so it's even stranger not to see them participate than to see T-90M pushed into more reckless fixing offensives. Do the BMP-3 units typically compose part of the operational reserve nowadays? I can't think of another explanation for their apparent absence from most of the fighting.
Thanks again Tom
Nice to hear some real news from you.
I was getting tired of Pentagon Cover Your Ass by blaming everything on the Ukrainians mediatic campaign.
Oddly enough, while trying to shift blame, Americans officials are dropping jaw dropping fact about their support. Like the fact they planified a breakthrough with a force of only 8 000 fighters trained on battalion level ops..
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/u-s-ukraine-clash-over-counteroffensive-strategy-cb5e4324
No wonder it did not work.
I find it shocking but at the same time, this is the type of ineptitude I expect from the US DoD. I mean when you see a guy like Lloyd Austin rise to the highest office. It is a competition of who is the most inept dude.
Just look at ruzzia - they might be absolute champions of negative selection, until we see those generals from North Korea.
Honestly the Americans are by far the worse.
I doubt you know about Llloyd Jr. Austin record. With a $500 millions program of Train & Equip which was supposed to train 5 400 Syrians fighters per year, he only trained "between 100 and 120". He then sent a pitiful a first group of 54 fighters to their death because after a full year he had nothing left to show for his reports. Naturally the group was utterly defeated within hours by a rival rebel group who was not even identified as the main enemy.
Latter Austin explained to a Congress audition how he had "four maybe five" fighters from his program still alive on the field. Actually there was nobody left : those who survived did so by laying low their weapons, understandably.
Knowing the man, now Secretary of Defence, it was foretold how the Train & Equip program for Ukraine would deliver a pathetic result and Americans would immediately try to cover their ass like they do now.
His pathetic attempt to cover his ass actually succeed because you see, for all the "work by through and with local partner forces" BS moto from the Pentagon, nobody cares to actually ask local partners what is going on. Be them Arab Syrians, Afghans or Ukrainians.
I doubt you paid attention to ruzzia.
Dont mistake me. I wish the RuZZians were as bad as the Pentagon top brass so they could be stopped everywhere. From Mali & Centrafrique to Ukraine through Libya, Syria and the Caucassus.