Hello everybody! Just a very brief one. Today, you’re going to ‘hear’ (i.e. read in the social media) about ‘fighting inside Klishchivka’, and ‘fighting inside Andriivka’. Actually, the ZSU is mopping up the remaining Russians along the eastern side of Klishchivka, and - especially - de-mining the place and clearing the wreckage and bodies sufficiently to enable a free movement of its own troops (and their hygienic survival there).
Jul 25, 2023·edited Jul 25, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Thank you :) or we could find a special code : the titel Bammel for something like yesterday - Apocalypse Now with the The Doors' The End if it really is the end.
Another great report, Tom. It reminds me a bit of the grinding fighting that went on in Normandy post D-Day. Then the Allies struck with Operation Cobra to break through the lines... but without air power, I don't think a Ukrainian Operation Cobra is in the offing. Unfortunately.
The correct term is EMP, electro magnetic pulse, and it is a by-product of nuclear explosions. There are no other means to produce one powerful enough to damage equipment on a large scale. Besides, Western and I assume also Soviet equipment was EMP hardened since the 60s or so. Farady cages, grounding, oversizing conductors, etc to minimize the effect of a nuke produced EMP.
Thanks, Tom, good news is always welcome - and bad news always has to be learned: Could you inform us about the Ukrainian situation near Svatove-Kupyansk as well? I'm very worried.
Pincers and cauldrons are a Soviet/ Russian military fetish. The Ukrainians military aim is to destroy as many Ru personnel and equipment in the shortest time possible and with minimal own losses. If around Bahmut that looks like a pincer, its just a coincidence.
You both got my comment wrong... If they (the russians) continue this way, when the pincher maneuver will close around Bakhmut, there will be no one trapped in... (because they would have all committed suicide in these nonsense counterattacks)
"Готовятся отправить на убой. Информация о том, что решение уже принято, пришла из ряда частей: 7 и 76 ДШД, 106 ВДД, 37 и 51 ПДП, 11 и 83 ОДШБР. Будут и другие части ВДВ. Все они по сути легкая пехота, а их бросают на прорыв эшелонированной обороны"
Stupid question: behind Klishchivka are no mine fields, the ground is relatively flat and the Russian front troops are relatively the most exhausted. Wouldn't that be a better spot to conduct a breakthrough exploitation with mechanised troops?
The path east of Donetsk to the Asov sea would be open there or am I missing something here?
Be sure: there are minefields. Might be not as massive as in northern Zaporizhzhya, but there are minefields everywhere where there are Russian defence positions.
....which in turn means: nope. There's no need for accelerating anything. The ZSU knows very well what is it doing there.
Hi, I have been following you dir auch year or so. Impressive work that you are doing. Thanks a lot !!
My question is. Is the inhumane neglectence of their own wounded soldiers and their dead a kind of 'raising' the morale of their own Russian troops and diminishing that of their opponents?
However, one has to see the situation from the Russian point of view. It simply does not matter.
Sounds awful, to us. Is awful for them, too. The difference is that they're not ready to do more than make a few luke-warm 'protest videos'. That's Russians: they keep on fighting, no matter what.
Jul 25, 2023·edited Jul 25, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
I would say they used to obey. It's old russian and then soviet mindset. Most russians and many Ukrainians have it. "We do not have to think. There is the Boss. He knows better what we should do". The Boss could be any of chief, tsar, gensek of KPSS or president. This mindset is slowly changing in Ukraine as we had 30 years of freedom, russians had only 10 and that over 20 years ago, so there the situation is much worse.
Thanks for the report, didn't expect this one as you said that you'll be off for some time.
Reading about all these relentless russian efforts to counterattack by the means of "meat attacks" to prevent further advance of ZSU makes me wonder when they will reach the point of such a burn rate when they'll start collapse quicker.
I understand that they continue recruiting, but looking at all reserves they committed to the frontline I'm just wondering what'll be next, let's say when ZSU will break through Surovikin's defence line. Anyway, if I'm understanding Lanchester law correctly - VSRF cannot continue fighting the same as they do now
something doesn't quite add up for me about the situation in Robotyne, looking at Andrew Perpetua's map https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/ it seems to me that the area you indicate as being controlled by the AFU to the east is at an elevation of 100-120 metres, while the village is at an elevation of 130-140 metres, so I'm left with doubts as to whether the location of the AFU actually dominates the village
So have checked for 7-8th time... On Google Earth, on Google Maps, on several other topographic maps: there's a 161-173m tall HILL there, east of Robotyne, and this is stretching north to south. (There's another hill 172m tall, on the western side of the village, but the village is 'in between' the two). Sadly, can't attach a screen-grab here.
So, what kind of elevation of 100-120 metres is anybody talking about: no trace of clue.
This is great news, slow but steady wins the race. I hope there starts to be panick with the Russian bloggers. I saw a recent video of Ukrainian sappers in the Zaporizhzhia front clearing mines and something struck me. After mentioning each mine usually has about 9kg of explosives, they said best thing they can do is blow them up after taking them out of the ground. It made me wonder because in other conflicts, guerrillas(Vietcong in Vietnam, UFM/NRA in Uganda) defending their land would always try to repurpose such resources. I expected them to try and collect these mines to be used maybe in Belgorod's people's republic or have the explosives taken out and used in IEDs or some other weapons.
Seems like a waste when Russia could end up supplying Free Russian Legion with mines by mining the whole of Southern Ukraine. I wonder what you're thoughts on this are. I have no idea about the topic of demining or mining but if I was a guerrilla my mindset would be to repurpose these mines.
Yes, generally by taking the fuze out or cutting the trip wire and securing the pin, depends on the model, but the Russians tend to "mine the mine": many times if you try to take it out of the ground there is a smaller one below and goes off, sometines they modify the fuze to blow when it is being unscrewed, etc. Sometimes the things describrd above are also set for time delay, even more perverse.
This is not guerilla warfare, it is the largest conventional conflict since Iran-Iraq in 1980-88. The Ukrainians have enough mines and explosives, no need to scavenge. Besides, Ru laid mines are often booby trapped, see my response to Denys below, it is not worth the risk.
Cool, lets hope for good results. I through 4 LNR brigade and Prizrak battalion are also there ? Do we know all the RF units that are currently fighting there ?
Nope. Staromayorske and Urozhaine are between Velyka Novosilka and Staromlynivka in western Donetsk region.
Detailed maps are available at https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-25-2023
Thank you. After your report of yesterday, the news from today are somewhat letting me breathe again.
Don't worry: I'll tell you when to panic. ;-)
You "told" me yesterday :)
OK, then let me try it this way: when it's time to 'panic', I'm going to use that word, too. ;-)
Thank you :) or we could find a special code : the titel Bammel for something like yesterday - Apocalypse Now with the The Doors' The End if it really is the end.
Another great report, Tom. It reminds me a bit of the grinding fighting that went on in Normandy post D-Day. Then the Allies struck with Operation Cobra to break through the lines... but without air power, I don't think a Ukrainian Operation Cobra is in the offing. Unfortunately.
....just that the Allies had complete aerial superiority, and could replace their M4s faster than these were shot away...
Thank you Tom. Something positive!
Horrible videos. Such a waste...
Thank you Tom Do you know something about any EMI weapon of both sides because I’ve seen that both Ukraine and Russia have potential in this sphere
Sorry, no idea what is 'EMI' weapon.
Electromagnetic impulse?
Yes
Sorry, don't know enough about that topic to comment about it.
The correct term is EMP, electro magnetic pulse, and it is a by-product of nuclear explosions. There are no other means to produce one powerful enough to damage equipment on a large scale. Besides, Western and I assume also Soviet equipment was EMP hardened since the 60s or so. Farady cages, grounding, oversizing conductors, etc to minimize the effect of a nuke produced EMP.
https://techlinkcenter.org/technologies/emp-interceptor-drone/3142e6f8-237d-4ad1-a600-e4c137efb2d9
Many thanks Tom for so a swift update. Is the only medicine against Putinists’ BS (and Western Media stupidities).
Really thank you for this.
Thanks, Tom, good news is always welcome - and bad news always has to be learned: Could you inform us about the Ukrainian situation near Svatove-Kupyansk as well? I'm very worried.
Trying to find out what's going on for 3 days now. All I'm getting are unclear claims: no evidence for absolutely anything at all.
If they continue this way, when the pincher maneuver will close around Bakhmut, there will be no one trapped in...
Maybe you will join the Ukrainian army to make it move faster.
Pincers and cauldrons are a Soviet/ Russian military fetish. The Ukrainians military aim is to destroy as many Ru personnel and equipment in the shortest time possible and with minimal own losses. If around Bahmut that looks like a pincer, its just a coincidence.
You both got my comment wrong... If they (the russians) continue this way, when the pincher maneuver will close around Bakhmut, there will be no one trapped in... (because they would have all committed suicide in these nonsense counterattacks)
Could the Russian commanders just misrepresent the intelligence to make Teplinsky die a glorious death (as a win-win outcome of his insubordination)?
Putting him in charge of their weakest spot on the front should also do the trick as he has no chance of being successful here.
Here is a proof dated Jul 21 https://t.me/oreshkins/13344
"Готовятся отправить на убой. Информация о том, что решение уже принято, пришла из ряда частей: 7 и 76 ДШД, 106 ВДД, 37 и 51 ПДП, 11 и 83 ОДШБР. Будут и другие части ВДВ. Все они по сути легкая пехота, а их бросают на прорыв эшелонированной обороны"
Really great news! Glory to Ukraine!
Thank you for your analysis and heads up.
Stupid question: behind Klishchivka are no mine fields, the ground is relatively flat and the Russian front troops are relatively the most exhausted. Wouldn't that be a better spot to conduct a breakthrough exploitation with mechanised troops?
The path east of Donetsk to the Asov sea would be open there or am I missing something here?
Be sure: there are minefields. Might be not as massive as in northern Zaporizhzhya, but there are minefields everywhere where there are Russian defence positions.
....which in turn means: nope. There's no need for accelerating anything. The ZSU knows very well what is it doing there.
Basically raiding and slaughtering everything until nothing combatable is left - if I interpret your analysis correctly.
Hi, I have been following you dir auch year or so. Impressive work that you are doing. Thanks a lot !!
My question is. Is the inhumane neglectence of their own wounded soldiers and their dead a kind of 'raising' the morale of their own Russian troops and diminishing that of their opponents?
I dare Not to think so but cannot help wondering.
For us, this is inhumane and morale-damaging etc.
However, one has to see the situation from the Russian point of view. It simply does not matter.
Sounds awful, to us. Is awful for them, too. The difference is that they're not ready to do more than make a few luke-warm 'protest videos'. That's Russians: they keep on fighting, no matter what.
I would say they used to obey. It's old russian and then soviet mindset. Most russians and many Ukrainians have it. "We do not have to think. There is the Boss. He knows better what we should do". The Boss could be any of chief, tsar, gensek of KPSS or president. This mindset is slowly changing in Ukraine as we had 30 years of freedom, russians had only 10 and that over 20 years ago, so there the situation is much worse.
I dare to say Ukrainian mindset has been a bit different always, and that "bit" of difference has grown over the years.
I agree, but I saw a lot of Ukrainians (usually not educated/blue collar) who thinks in "obey" style. There are really lot of them
Hey Tom!
Thanks for the report, didn't expect this one as you said that you'll be off for some time.
Reading about all these relentless russian efforts to counterattack by the means of "meat attacks" to prevent further advance of ZSU makes me wonder when they will reach the point of such a burn rate when they'll start collapse quicker.
I understand that they continue recruiting, but looking at all reserves they committed to the frontline I'm just wondering what'll be next, let's say when ZSU will break through Surovikin's defence line. Anyway, if I'm understanding Lanchester law correctly - VSRF cannot continue fighting the same as they do now
Thanks for the update,
something doesn't quite add up for me about the situation in Robotyne, looking at Andrew Perpetua's map https://map.ukrdailyupdate.com/ it seems to me that the area you indicate as being controlled by the AFU to the east is at an elevation of 100-120 metres, while the village is at an elevation of 130-140 metres, so I'm left with doubts as to whether the location of the AFU actually dominates the village
I'll re-check (for XYth time), but to me, it appears exactly the opposite.
So have checked for 7-8th time... On Google Earth, on Google Maps, on several other topographic maps: there's a 161-173m tall HILL there, east of Robotyne, and this is stretching north to south. (There's another hill 172m tall, on the western side of the village, but the village is 'in between' the two). Sadly, can't attach a screen-grab here.
So, what kind of elevation of 100-120 metres is anybody talking about: no trace of clue.
Thank you for your patience, I saw it on Google Earth
This is great news, slow but steady wins the race. I hope there starts to be panick with the Russian bloggers. I saw a recent video of Ukrainian sappers in the Zaporizhzhia front clearing mines and something struck me. After mentioning each mine usually has about 9kg of explosives, they said best thing they can do is blow them up after taking them out of the ground. It made me wonder because in other conflicts, guerrillas(Vietcong in Vietnam, UFM/NRA in Uganda) defending their land would always try to repurpose such resources. I expected them to try and collect these mines to be used maybe in Belgorod's people's republic or have the explosives taken out and used in IEDs or some other weapons.
Seems like a waste when Russia could end up supplying Free Russian Legion with mines by mining the whole of Southern Ukraine. I wonder what you're thoughts on this are. I have no idea about the topic of demining or mining but if I was a guerrilla my mindset would be to repurpose these mines.
Can mines be deactivated after being planted?
Yes, generally by taking the fuze out or cutting the trip wire and securing the pin, depends on the model, but the Russians tend to "mine the mine": many times if you try to take it out of the ground there is a smaller one below and goes off, sometines they modify the fuze to blow when it is being unscrewed, etc. Sometimes the things describrd above are also set for time delay, even more perverse.
....or stack 2-3-4 anti-tank mines atop of each other - to reinforce their power of blast - and then connect them to some 5-6 other mines nearby...
Looks hopeless. If orcs mine Svatove direction and NATO will supply so little as now - it might be hopeless
FYI: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8k5DBzXcgG8
The guy has various other videos about mines/claymores/grenades/RL and how it works as well.
This is not guerilla warfare, it is the largest conventional conflict since Iran-Iraq in 1980-88. The Ukrainians have enough mines and explosives, no need to scavenge. Besides, Ru laid mines are often booby trapped, see my response to Denys below, it is not worth the risk.
Cool, lets hope for good results. I through 4 LNR brigade and Prizrak battalion are also there ? Do we know all the RF units that are currently fighting there ?
AFAIK, 4th is in Kurdyumivka and further south; the last I've heard of it, Prizrak was somewhere between Vesela Dolyna and Klishchivka: https://twitter.com/LoLManya/status/1681783629540741120,