Ukraine War, 25 February 2024

Hello everybody!

Here’s another, ’late night, telegraphic‘ update…

Please mind: the following was actually written in the final minutes of the 24 February, but will be posted in the early minutes of the 25 February. Thus, sorry if any passages might appear confusing…

Regarding the downing of the A-50, yesterday evening. I do trust Ukrainian sources who say it was an S-200 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system (see: ‘SA-5 Gammon’, in ASCC/NATO-parlance). And there are few good reasons for this.

Primary are:

-          The A-50 was shot down over 220km away from nearest Ukrainian-controlled sector of the frontline, while the V-880 missiles of the S-200/SA-5 SAM-system have a range of 250-300km.

-          Ukraine used to operate S-200/SA-5s until some 15 years ago. There’s certainly still some know-how about them available in the country.

-          Atop of that, Poland used to have S-200/SA-5s in operational service, and these were locally upgraded, some 20 years ago (see: S-200VE to S-200C). Wouldn’t be surprised if it turns out the rounds fired in this case came from Poland.

Two V-880 missiles of the S-200/SA-5 system.

-          The Russian story about ‘own goal’ is typical Russian hogwash. Mind that in the Russian armed forces, ‘incompetence = no problem’, but ‘weakness = big problem’. Yes, sounds ‘crazy’ here in the West, but is the ‘norm’ over there. Thus, from the Russian point of view: it’s better ‘we shoot it down on our own’, than ‘Ukrainians killed it’.

-          Similar is valid for the Russian version along which the A-50 was ‘shot down by some unknown aircraft, using AIM-120C from 177km range’. That’s an explanation in the same league like that ‘our Su-24 was shot down by a Turkish F-16 that sneaked up on him and fired an AIM-9 Sidewinder from 4km range’, ‘stabbing us in the back as we were fighting Jihadists’, from back in November 2015.

-          Yes, there are videos showing the Russian air defences opening fire and missiles flying up ‘in general direction’ of the A-50, but…. sigh… now comes the part where it’s ‘technical’ and the mass of people are not reading (just like the mass of people stop reading my books after two pages, ‘because too technical’). Cold fact is: wars are technical affairs. Mind: V-880 missiles are some 11 metres long and 7,000kg heavy on launch. They are big. They have a radar cross section of a jet in the class between L-39 or MiG-15, and MiG-21. Means: not only that the incoming V.880s (at least two were fired, probably more) were detected by the A-50’s radar, but by radars of the Russian air defences. The A-50 turned south, released chaff & flares, almost certainly deployed on-board electronic countermeasures. Russian SAM-units opened fire at the V.880s, too. Nothing special about this. They simply missed the incoming Ukrainian SAMs, which were travelling at a speed of about Mach 4 – and then killed the A-50.

Bottom line: unless there’s a detailed account of this action available, for me, the case is ‘closed’.

From the battlefields…

Generally, it appears the Russians have introduced something like ‘new tactics’. Essentially, they pack a bunch of troops on their BMPs or BMDs (see: ‘assault group’ of some 100-150-200 troops, on 8-12 IFVs), then drive them at full speed into Ukrainian positions, regardless the losses. Underway, BMPs and/or BMDs are blown up by Ukrainian FPV-drones, mines, and occasional artillery- or mortar shells, but: they just keep on coming. I.e. because Ukrainians are so critically short on artillery ammunition, most of the times it takes the ZSU much longer to destroy the first group, before the second is on its way… Ukrainians call this a ‘Banzai attack’ in reminiscence of ‘suicide attacks’ of the Japanese infantry on US positions (for example: on Guadalcanal island, but also the Marians and on Okinawa) during the Second World War.

One ‘Banzai attack’ by the 11^th VDV Brigade was what brought the Russians into Ivanivske, west of Bakhmut. The fighting there is still going on, principally because the 5^th Assault Brigade lacks the artillery ammo to destroy the follow-up assault groups. So, whatever of the Russians it….cuddles… inside Ivanivske, there’s always another group approaching the village from the east.

This is a screen-grab from a video I _guess_ was taken in eastern Ivanivske. It’s showing an Ukrainian BMP-2 while approaching Russian positions in ruined homes well outside what’s visible, then shelling these with its auto-cannon.

Another such attack was launched on positions of the 3^rd Assault in Lastochkyne, on 22 February. The 3^rd held out: the Russians did not manage to gain a foothold.

But, then another Russian assault group passed by the village to the north, and almost blocked the road to the west. Consequence: the 3^rd had to withdraw from Lastochkyne, in the night from 23 to 24 February.

Finally, yet another such attack was launched into Robotyne, on 23 February, too. Resulted in several surviving BMP-3s driving up the road on the western edge of the village, then turning right, shooting in all directions – and thus quite a spectacular videos. Here a still from one, showing two of BMPs in question:

The Russians then claimed ‘Robotyne taken’. Actually: all the ‘suiciders’ were… cuddled (or, shall I really write ‘kuddled’…?), as were BMPs sent to pick up survivors, as obvious from this still (courtesy of the suitably named FPV-unit ‘Ronin Group’, from the 65th Mech, ZSU):

….but, it was ‘few tense hours for Ukrainian defenders.