70 Comments

It's a pity, Tom, that only now have you begun to understand what Ukrainians knew from the very beginning: Syrsky is a "butcher", and "Ze" is a puppet of oligarchs, who is nothing special himself. My poor Ukraine...

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You say Ukrainians "knew" him as a butcher. You are confusing "heard on Facebook and some took it as true" with knowledge. Being pessimistic about anything and everything just to say "told you so" later is not a great trait.

"Allies" can cut the help, cause catastrophic defeat and then also say "well you finally see it, but we knew how it ends all along". Would you take kindly to something like that? No? Then don't be like that yourself.

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You will probably be very surprised, but sometimes they write the truth on Facebook. Although you contradict yourself, immediately expressing the opinion that "allies" for some reason should suddenly listen to comments on the same Facebook ))) But my comment was not intended for "allies", but for the One who only recently began to "see the light"...

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People write every opinion under the sun on Facebook. You say "Ukrainians knew", but you clearly don't grasp what does it mean "to know". The rest of you comment is rooted in a misreading of what I said, so I'll just ignore that.

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If I can add a few words 'in my own defence': it takes time to 'read into' a topic, establish contacts, and understand how the 'system' (in this case: the ZSU) 'works'.

And then it takes time to sort out the issues and realise what's going wrong.

Moreover, while problems were massive already at earlier times, they were not as massive as they meanwhile are.

Correspondingly: even if, say, Syrsky would be replaced by somebody else, 'in the next five minutes', the entire process would have to be repeated. It would again take time to figure out how is the new system working and what's functioning and what not.

BTW, I do not consider Syrsky for a 'butcher'. Different of his Buddies (see: GenStab-U) are 'butchers'. I do consider Syrsyka for hopelessly incompetent. Totally unable of doing his actual job.

This is so beacause a general in his position should be foremost a 'representative': somebody explaining to the 'politics' (Zelensky) what the ZSU can, and what it can't do, while - and that's the 'managerial' part of his job - finding, organising, and motivating himself a team of subordinates that can do their jobs. He should also be kicking arses of all his Buddies to improve their work, write a new doctrine etc.

He's constantly proving absolutely unable to do anything of this. He's doing everything Zelensky tells him, in complete disregard for the safety of involved troops, and regardless if this is making sense in regards of military arts or not. He's micromanaging the war, and trying to command 100+ brigades, independent battalions etc - instead of letting his subordinates do the job. Probably because he's appointing ever more of his incompetent buddies into crucial positions. As a result, the entire system is failing - and then so much, I'm already 'hearing voices' wondering when is the ZSU going to collapse.

....not because of a collapse of morale between the troops, but because a 'system' like an armed force cannot remain operational if it's forced into too many failures.

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Я так розумію, 3 штурмовий виконує роль пожежників(( а таких бригад мало на жаль, я так бачу.

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Thanks, Tom! 🙏

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Thanks. Losing Pokrovsk is a loss of small part of Ukraine, but huge damage to it’s economy:( https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ukraines-steelmakers-fret-russians-advance-towards-key-coal-mine-2024-10-16/

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Thank you, Tom!!! Hoping for a new CnC-GenShtubU real soon.

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15th NG seems to have been lured outside their fortifications. They have pushed the Russians out initially and then were rolled over or their flanks turned.

At this point it would be userul to abandon everything east of Pokrovks and create a line North South. The frontage will be reduced from 100km to 30 km and there will be reserves available. Otherwise the campaign will be one cauldron after another.

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There is no guarantee that would not happen further west.

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And this could lead to a collapse/rout

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Russia's slow movement mitigates a lot of that threat.

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Thank you, Tom. It is really hard to read what is going at war, especially now. God bless ZSU !

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Thanks for the update. I think the point about strategic initiative is very important. To some degree Ukraine seized that with their Kursk offensive, but have now lost it. I think it necessary for Ukraine to regain it somewhere. Otherwise as you say mistakes will happen and Russia will advance. Now I think the only way to retake that iniative is air warfare, meaning hitting the airfields, ammo dumps etc of Russia. Ignore the oilproduction, Go for denying the air superiority of Russia. Not easy, but it should be possible to build a air warfare strategy around it.

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OK, so that was it. The way it was mentioned had a kind of 'siege of Kyev is imminent' vibe, just like from Russian sources... What was so completely missing from any Ukrainian sources that it was suspiciously inconsistent.

Not nice, but unless some miracle happens (like really solid and consistent and: adequate western support...) then the only way to win this is by bleedin' the Russians dry: on the price of land, if that helps to keep the losses low.

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Tom thanks for update, observations and ideas

@patching units I have 2 possible sad explanations (I'm sure there are many more)

a) divide and rule - what if some brigade commanders are too successful and competent and someone comes with idea to promote those guys and replace current incompetent zsu hq (or even worse people will see incompetency of Syrsky and start asking question why)?

b) isn't movement of whole brigade more complex than deployment of smaller unit?

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a) is unlikely as the Ukrainian army is extremely bureaucratic. There is no legal way to replace the hq. And people already ask questions - which is the national pastime in Ukraine.

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Thanks for updating the Oskil river situation, I’ve been worried about it. I think it’s been long past the time for better ideas to come from the Gen Stab-U. Find a team of retired NATO brass to actually run the show, while still paying the Soviet trained Buddies to just sit there. Something like a modern version of the Kaiser sending generals to Turkey and Austria to fix a mess in WWI.

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Ah, we got plenty of German troops as well. Austrians were more for parading...

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This is maybe a corruption issue which permeates everything.

Ukraine was not ready for this war. And is still not ready, still în Dreamland of day dreaming.

The initial expectations were that Russian Army will crush the Ukrainian Army and that the Russian state would later collapse under economic sanctions în a few months. Nothing worked as expected.

The Ukrainian Army has survived and the Ukrainian state have survived. Generals and politicians can feel satisfied, they have done superbly. It's now the job of US to do everything else: sanctions, weapons, NATO admission and post war prosperity.

They can not comprehend that its their job to do the heavy lifting while US only offers support. There is no national military training, no industrial production for simple items to cover entire needs of UAF ( mortar rounds, RPGs, utility vehicles), no effort to move population from big cities and the East. There are many divizive policies like targeting the Moscow affiliated Ortodox Church, destroyng books and statues who have any link with Russia and flaunting naționalist simbol from WW2 în the face of Poland.

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Whose expectations were that Russia will collapse due to sanctions? I distinctly remember there were just two opinions on this. 1. group of useful idiots claiming sanctions make no sense, as they won't collapse Russia and so we shouldn't do them, 2. group saying the point is not to collapse the Russia, because no sanctions ever worked like that, but we still should do them to help Ukraine. Of course the useful idiots then managed to delay the sanctions and soften them as much as possible. Still their effect is real.

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Practically the whole of the Western world political leaders and commentators said it. eg: "31 Mar 2022 — “As a result of these unprecedented sanctions, the ruble almost is immediately reduced to rubble,” President Joe Biden said in Poland last week."

You can find endless articles just search on Google ""russia will collapse sanctions before:YYYY-MM-DD"

Eg:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/01/business/russia-economy-sanctions/index.html

It appears it was the western dimwits plan all along. Along with other lies they told ukr like "as long as it takes" ect etc.

Ukraine lived up to its end of the bargin with manpower etc but has been betrayed by the western scumbags.

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I remember this very well. Ruble did go down, but even at the exact time when Biden said it, it was already recovering and Biden was heavily criticised for that statement. You say it was 31 march, go check the exchange rate on that date.

That piece on CNN you looked is some ignorant news writer punishing propaganda PR article without knowing anything about the topic, and it didn't really have any concrete details on what that supposed collapse should be. There were no serious opinions like this.

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Lol literally every major western media outlet and prestigious think tank said the same thing. Go use Google instead of spouting nonsense

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If it wasn't for those "western scumbags" Ukraine would have ceased to exist by mid 2023. If poorly trained, unmotivated, poorly managed and badly commanded manpower is your end of the bargain, Ukr hardly deserves what it got so far.

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You sound exactly like a western scumbag who lied, gave terrible advice and pushed Ukraine into disastrous counter-offensives and the like.

They would have far better off sticking to classic soviet style defensive warfare from the beginning instead of listening to a bunch of US and western idiots who only know how to use trillions of dollars worth of high tech weapons and defense budget's to bomb rice farmers and goat hearders and still lose.

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Yeah, "fuck you, losers, let us use your weapons pretty please". Insane. Are you a russian bot roleplaying as a retarded Ukrainian by any chance?

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Are you a scumbag westerner trying to blame Ukraine for your failures? pulling the "stupid slavs couldn't do anything right"? When was the last real war you guys fought? Literally couldn't beat illiterate peasants armed with AK's but have the gall to critique Ukrainians fighting the largest high intensity war since ww2.

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I think you have no idea about Ukrainian political landscape and what policies are "divisive" so please stop spreading bull$hit.

Here, just for you: "The vast majority of Ukrainians - 80% - support the recently adopted law banning the activities of religious organisations affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church."

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/10/15/7479757/

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So you have 20% of the population who thinks that the government is wrong. You just have alienated/ scared one fifth of your manpower. Job well done.

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Hahahaha. Every government in any democratic country would be delighted if any of their policies had 80% support among voters. Huh, 50% is already great.

Of course in Putin's Russia everything government does has 99% popularity.

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Point is the Ukr leadership cannot afford to alienate large segments of its population while in an existential war, but it still does. Its own incompetent or even traitor generals will only be investigated after the war ends, but somehow church matters cannot wait...

While the "hero" Prokopenko instead of being at the front praises UPA genociders on twitter. Priorities, priorities....

https://x.com/D_Redis/status/1845693109604139175

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They would've alienated much more than 16% supporting russian church by NOT passing that law

Yes, Prokopenko forgot to ask some random weirdo whom he should praise.

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Don't something that has such overwhelming majority support does not count as "alienating". If 80% of the population of Ukraine didn't support continuation of the wear, should the government surrender to russkies or that would alienate "large segments of population"?

I bet you would want it...

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This is about personal liberties. These kind of laws can get easy majorities but they create hostile enclaves. Ex: should LGBT people be prevented from adopting children.

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Omg, you're more 'smart' than I though.. So government was going to wait until the support was 99% before doing it?

If governments listened to your advice most of countries would've been paralysed.

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Church operation is not existential for the government. The citizens on the other hand are not happy that their churches are closed or highjacked. They will stop volunteering or donating.

That 20% support is actually significant în attrition warfare.

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Some of the fiercest fighters were/are uplifted by the ban. You need to account for that. As well as the fact it's an FSB org and has to be dismantled on those grounds.

Donators are not the center of the universe.

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I'm glad that some soldiers want to close the churches. Can they multiple to offset the angro civilians?

What else would motivate the fiercest fighters? Swastikas everywhere? Would it be useful for the weapons deliveries ?

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Banning subordination of the orthodox churches in Ukraine to the Patriarchy in Moscow because of Ru political and intel influence sounds reasonable. What you conviniently omit is that they are offered no other choice but to submit to the Ukrainian Orhodox Church.

Romanian ethnic churches in Ukr were almost all under Moscow Patriarchy (counterintuitevly, I know) because they allowed service in Ro language and priests of Ro ethnic origin. While UOC imposes their own priests and service in Ukr language.

Thr Romanian Orthodox Patriarchy asked Ukr to be recognized in Ukr, in order to draw those Ro ethnic churches under its organiztion, away from Ru hands. Their formal request was postponed indefinitely, and they manifested their displeasure publicly (which is very rare for them).

https://stirileprotv.ro/divers/decizia-ucrainei-care-a-suparat-biserica-ortodoxa-romana-am-luat-act-cu-regret.html

The Romanian Orthodox Church has been running a sort of crusade against the Moscow Patriarchy in Moldova in the last couple of years, with dozens of parishes switching from Moscow to Romanian subordination.

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"they are offered no other choice but to submit to the Ukrainian Orhodox Church" - nonsense. Read the legislation before commenting on it.

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Why would they need to submit to the rule of some dressed up dude in foreign country. It's not even that their religion has such demand in its core.

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"There is no national military training, no industrial production" this is possibly the most shocking thing for me. The idea there is a professional military fighting while everyone else is home is shocking. I understand Ukrainians not on the frontline are sending tremendous amounts of aid but there needs to be more state promoted military training, and production for all those not at the frontline. Those ages 18-25 not on the frontlines should be participating in military production at least part time. For a country in an existential crisis, everyone needs to be participating in military training and production. This should have been done in the first few months of the war. Ukraine needs to fully transition away from a peacetime economy. It will hurt the economy in the short term but save the country and human lives. It will also remove this facade that someone can simply dodge the mobilization and come back when everything's done. Instead even those not at the frontline feel the participation in the war by participating in production of military goods and regular training.

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Big mistake. Your comment does not take into account the history of Ukraine for 30 years, before the war. As a simple citizen of Ukraine, I answer - any young man, 18 - 25 years old, without rich parents (it is extremely important), should make every effort, and have 1-2 more passports, any other countries, so as not to get into slavery to the state. You're offering slavery to young people. No. Offer slavery to your fellow citizens. Many Ukrainians are not savages, but quite modern people of the 21st century, who have the Internet, and live by the rules of capitalism and globalization. If in a neighboring country the salary is 200-300 percent higher, and it is very easy to find out, there is no point in giving your life and time, working cheap. Why live badly here if it is much better to live in a neighboring state? Under capitalism, this is absolutely true. Big capital must suffer a lot for lack of workers. Then big capital, in order to survive, will have to compete and improve the living conditions of local citizens.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

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The thing about the Shahed attacks is they consume valuable Ukraine AD resources at what appears to be a fairly minor cost to the Russians. along with identifying locations of those defenses. So whether or not the Shahed hits a useful target, it will have forced the Ukrainians to spend time and resources to counter them.

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Gerans/Shaheeds are getting cameras' equipped to access the results:

https://t.me/belarusian_silovik/43380

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A camera on a drone?!? Amazing. Russian science stronk.

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Thanks again for the update, is it still confirmed that the initial VSRF penetration is 25km of the frontline?Waiting for the next update.

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There is no 25 deep penetration, but the frontline collapsed at multiple points along a stretch of 25km. And that almost exclusively due to a series of command failures.

Was similar in Selydove: there, the 15th NG held in the town, but the command failed to secure their flanks.

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Length of frontline then, nice to know, breaches only which by your report was stopped by the ZSU at the 2nd defence line position/trace lines. Thank you for the clarification Tom.

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Tom, you've recently asked "how come Ukrainians are no longer hitting russkies air force bases with UAVs" well, I've found the reason. They hit not one, but two distilleries deep inside russia! That will teach them. And actually, according to Ukrainian Counter-Desinformation center, those were military targets, as they were making explosives there. I kid you not https://t.me/akovalenko1989/8147

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"the Buddies are always, and without any exception, publishing statements about everything that happens on the Ukrainian side of the frontline.

Everything.

Especially all the bad news…"

If people have issues with bad news, forward them to the following YouTube-Video-"Reporting":

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fLOsndl59bs&t=14s

There every rapid reordering is due to the awarness of the high command and the Ukrainians are victorious as soon as the elite formations (which is normally those with cameras) appear. No questions asked, why that is needed in the first place or is a few kilometers backwards to a video made a few weeks ago.

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