Hello everybody! Since something like 36-48 hours, there is a growing number of reports about some sort of a ‘breakthrough’ in southern Zaporizhzhya. Have checked around, but can’t get any details right now: apparently, the involved troops - no matter from what side - are still ‘all involved’. I.e. nobody was rotated back to tell the story, re-charge the smartphone, upload videos etc.
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I’ve seen the optimism on a possible breakthrough in the (western) media too. I was triggered by the fact that even Rob de Wijk (founder of The Hague Center for Strategic Studies), whom normally isn’t optimistic, was moderately optimistic about the recent efforts of Ukraine.
I was reading weeks ago that hills 166 & 169 were contested, that the UAF had been on 166 but forced off, and was assuming that neither side controlled them. Is it logical to conclude that if the UAF is not controlling these places then the RF controls and is able to use them?
Yes, back in mid-August, if not earlier, Ukrainians have assaulted that hill. Apparently took it, then lost it. (I'm sure to have titled one of my reports back then 'Hill 166').
Im very surprised. Didnt Ukrainians took the hill 166? I've read a few days ago about this point. Ronin talked that they were able to free 166. He is quite an adequate observer of military news
Here is machine translation of his post in F (22.09 at 14:25): Commanding heights behind, in some places table level, step with rare rays and views right up to Tokmak. Hill 166 southeast of the village is ours.
I have read that they took it some while ago, but it seems like they lost it shortly thereafter. It has been (back) in Russian hands for some time now.
Yes, back in mid-August, if not earlier, Ukrainians have assaulted that hill. Took it, then lost it. (I'm sure to have titled one of my reports back then 'Hill 166').
Just like their initial attack into Verbove destroyed an entire Russian battalion and reached the south-east of the village, before a Russian counterattack threw Ukrainians back.
Thank you for your analysis. The weather in the region of the battle is hot (+27 C) and will be hot for at last a week more. So Russian troops have to provide water as well. It must be hell in trenches.
It's +29C near Kyiv, but the sun is low and days are short because of the season, thus it does not feel nearly as hot as it was in the summer. It's just warm outside.
In the Verbovoy area, the katsaps are already panicking. It is reported that the Armed Forces have already entered Verbove and are continuing to move forward. Some orc units are under threat from the encirclement. In addition, the latest geolocation video of the battle in Novoprokopivka shows the presence of the Armed Forces in this settlement. That is, the ZSU has a significant advance to the south of the village of Robotyne. Details later.
I can't because I do not have 'that' map (used on that link): I'm orienting on the Google Earth, and on it neither of the three hills is clearly marked.
Indeed, so far, haven't seen a single map clearly denoting all the three hills (162, 166 and 169): only heard a lot about them - from contacts, and from the social media.
So, my 'best guess' is something like Hill 162 being the easternmost one, about 5-6km east of Noroprokopivka; Hill 166 in the centre, but slightly south of the line connecting Hills 162 and 169; and the Hill 169 being the easternmost one, overlooking Verbove.
"Either I'm missing something important". I guess you are missing a point.
There is a Ukrainian journalist, Roman Shrike: https://t.me/ShrikeNews/10571. From my experience, he is the most common-sense media in Ukraine: no clickbait headlines, no repeating news, and so on. For example, weeks ago, there was news about shipping 10 "additional" Leopard 1. However, only he has explicitly written that these tanks aren't any new aid but the first 10 out of a hundred that were promised a year ago.
He is not a military expert/journalist/etc., and he knows it.
A similar issue is with the current `breakthrough`. Shrike insists that this `fresh news` is just cut-out words from a weeks-old CNN interview with General Tarnavskyi. In that interview, Tarnavskyi talked about the initial breakthrough near Verbove.
At least with the rifled gun they have the oppurtunity to use HESH rounds, which makes them more effective against soft targets, buildings and trenches.
Does anyone know how the slovenian donated M-55S are performing? They are in Ukraine for quite some time and probably the best to compare with Leopard 1.
But yeah as long as Russia can keep up with pulling (1st Gen and equally old) T80's out of storage I doubt we will see a lot of Leopard 1 action (see Perun's analysis from last week: https://youtu.be/ctrtAwT2sgs?t=2124 ), when the mass of the T55s arive that might change =)
Thanks for the update. However while we can certainly hope for a breakthrough of the Ukrainians I remain sceptical. Not least after reading your update. You claim no confirmation of anything, cannot identify possible roads... as far as I can see from your text this is simply wishful thinking from the U headquarters. I do hope I am wrong, but as you said, lets wait and see. And hope.
This "breakthrough" is wishful thinking of massmedia and ordinary people, not GS UA. As someone mentioned earlier all this hype is from yesterday CNN article. Tarnavksy said there in video that UA forces had a breakthrough NEAR Verbove. But we don't even know when this interview was filmed. Maybe few days ago, maybe few weeks ago (usually big media need time to approve everything). But people are in desperate need of good news, so they wish it's a new or current breakthrough.
I have read some comments that Rasputitsa will not delay Ukraine because their infantry advances in small groups on foot, but that does not explain how they would be supplied.
Google Earth shows a direct route between Verbove and Novoprokopivka but it looks more like a path than a road although on the "car" setting, it also shows flames (probably gunfire) south of that route.
Edit: Much further South from Verbove around 40 Km there are three lots of flames grouped around the railway north of Verhnij Tokmak.
Yup: Rasputitsa is not the same all over Ukraine: it depends on the type of soil. AFAIK, in the Tokmak area and further south - there is none at all.
And yes, thanks: somebody up the thread helped localise the road. It's a 'path', dotted by Russian fortifications and trenches, crossed by Ukrainians almost a month ago.
This year August and September were extremely hot. If such a weather continues, the ground will remain quite dry till the winter, maybe even till spring.
Hello Tom. How many mines do you think Russia has left and does it produce them now or supply them from other countries? Was the USSR really afraid of NATO attack if it produced so many mines?
I believe the "field" part is incorrect, roads go around fields.
Thank you Tom for update.
Do you keep links, with the videos of 76 division complains ?
Gosh no.... too many links. Even when I try to use them, I'm often mixing them, so better not to 'spread confusion' in that way.
Yea, there is to much material, but somehow i have missed everything from 76th.
Good morning Tom,
many thanks for sharing your thoughts and the efforts associated.
When I read about a breakthrough, I thought “Naaa, would have read that in Tom’s blog long time ago 😉”
Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I’ve seen the optimism on a possible breakthrough in the (western) media too. I was triggered by the fact that even Rob de Wijk (founder of The Hague Center for Strategic Studies), whom normally isn’t optimistic, was moderately optimistic about the recent efforts of Ukraine.
Road Novoprokopivka - Verbove.
Z místa Novoprokopivka, Záporožská, Ukrajina, 71721 do místa Verbove, Záporožská, Ukrajina, 70633.
15 min (13 km)
https://maps.app.goo.gl/DDie1cYQpD5kVGs2A
Well, Google is telling me it is free...
Umph.... that one? Is 'full of holes' in form of Russian trenches.
I was reading weeks ago that hills 166 & 169 were contested, that the UAF had been on 166 but forced off, and was assuming that neither side controlled them. Is it logical to conclude that if the UAF is not controlling these places then the RF controls and is able to use them?
Yes, back in mid-August, if not earlier, Ukrainians have assaulted that hill. Apparently took it, then lost it. (I'm sure to have titled one of my reports back then 'Hill 166').
Im very surprised. Didnt Ukrainians took the hill 166? I've read a few days ago about this point. Ronin talked that they were able to free 166. He is quite an adequate observer of military news
Here is machine translation of his post in F (22.09 at 14:25): Commanding heights behind, in some places table level, step with rare rays and views right up to Tokmak. Hill 166 southeast of the village is ours.
I have read that they took it some while ago, but it seems like they lost it shortly thereafter. It has been (back) in Russian hands for some time now.
Yes, back in mid-August, if not earlier, Ukrainians have assaulted that hill. Took it, then lost it. (I'm sure to have titled one of my reports back then 'Hill 166').
Just like their initial attack into Verbove destroyed an entire Russian battalion and reached the south-east of the village, before a Russian counterattack threw Ukrainians back.
Happens very often in wars of this kind.
Thank you for your analysis. The weather in the region of the battle is hot (+27 C) and will be hot for at last a week more. So Russian troops have to provide water as well. It must be hell in trenches.
It's +29C near Kyiv, but the sun is low and days are short because of the season, thus it does not feel nearly as hot as it was in the summer. It's just warm outside.
But in the South-East of Ukraine 600 km to the South it feels like real summer even in the evening. I go to swim in Dnipro every day.
It is you who must be afraid if so silly, shortsighted and low citizens like yourself predominate in your country.
In the Verbovoy area, the katsaps are already panicking. It is reported that the Armed Forces have already entered Verbove and are continuing to move forward. Some orc units are under threat from the encirclement. In addition, the latest geolocation video of the battle in Novoprokopivka shows the presence of the Armed Forces in this settlement. That is, the ZSU has a significant advance to the south of the village of Robotyne. Details later.
Join the channel.
Tom, thank you for the update. Would you have a link to the map showing the location of the "strategic" heights you mentioned, please? Found one but this doesn't show all of them. https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/19/2188117/-Ukraine-Update-Ukraine-is-about-to-reach-the-downhill-part-of-the-Tokmak-offensive-literally
I can't because I do not have 'that' map (used on that link): I'm orienting on the Google Earth, and on it neither of the three hills is clearly marked.
Indeed, so far, haven't seen a single map clearly denoting all the three hills (162, 166 and 169): only heard a lot about them - from contacts, and from the social media.
So, my 'best guess' is something like Hill 162 being the easternmost one, about 5-6km east of Noroprokopivka; Hill 166 in the centre, but slightly south of the line connecting Hills 162 and 169; and the Hill 169 being the easternmost one, overlooking Verbove.
found this https://t.me/karas_ukrainoje/3236
That is stolen. Here is the origin:
https://x.com/pouletvolant3/status/1705867327265292579?s=46&t=p2oRpVrcefSufSHiNrA6uw
Thank you!
I think this are the mentioned hills:
https://imgur.com/a/PpDEZNv
The brown line is 150 m NN, the reddish brown dots are the highest elevations.
"Either I'm missing something important". I guess you are missing a point.
There is a Ukrainian journalist, Roman Shrike: https://t.me/ShrikeNews/10571. From my experience, he is the most common-sense media in Ukraine: no clickbait headlines, no repeating news, and so on. For example, weeks ago, there was news about shipping 10 "additional" Leopard 1. However, only he has explicitly written that these tanks aren't any new aid but the first 10 out of a hundred that were promised a year ago.
He is not a military expert/journalist/etc., and he knows it.
A similar issue is with the current `breakthrough`. Shrike insists that this `fresh news` is just cut-out words from a weeks-old CNN interview with General Tarnavskyi. In that interview, Tarnavskyi talked about the initial breakthrough near Verbove.
Could be, yes.
And yes, Leopard 1A5s.... they were obsolete already back in the 1980s.
Could be, but they are still better than nothing and are able to fight T-64s and T-72s due to their better optics and fire control systems.
....with gun calibre 105mm? Hm....
I am not volunteering for empirical research on the receiving end ;-)
At least with the rifled gun they have the oppurtunity to use HESH rounds, which makes them more effective against soft targets, buildings and trenches.
Does anyone know how the slovenian donated M-55S are performing? They are in Ukraine for quite some time and probably the best to compare with Leopard 1.
But yeah as long as Russia can keep up with pulling (1st Gen and equally old) T80's out of storage I doubt we will see a lot of Leopard 1 action (see Perun's analysis from last week: https://youtu.be/ctrtAwT2sgs?t=2124 ), when the mass of the T55s arive that might change =)
Thanks for the update. However while we can certainly hope for a breakthrough of the Ukrainians I remain sceptical. Not least after reading your update. You claim no confirmation of anything, cannot identify possible roads... as far as I can see from your text this is simply wishful thinking from the U headquarters. I do hope I am wrong, but as you said, lets wait and see. And hope.
As always, simply explaining the info I've got - or I haven't got.
In this case, there's nothing to 'confirm' some kind of a 'breakthrough'.
This "breakthrough" is wishful thinking of massmedia and ordinary people, not GS UA. As someone mentioned earlier all this hype is from yesterday CNN article. Tarnavksy said there in video that UA forces had a breakthrough NEAR Verbove. But we don't even know when this interview was filmed. Maybe few days ago, maybe few weeks ago (usually big media need time to approve everything). But people are in desperate need of good news, so they wish it's a new or current breakthrough.
I have read some comments that Rasputitsa will not delay Ukraine because their infantry advances in small groups on foot, but that does not explain how they would be supplied.
Google Earth shows a direct route between Verbove and Novoprokopivka but it looks more like a path than a road although on the "car" setting, it also shows flames (probably gunfire) south of that route.
Edit: Much further South from Verbove around 40 Km there are three lots of flames grouped around the railway north of Verhnij Tokmak.
Yup: Rasputitsa is not the same all over Ukraine: it depends on the type of soil. AFAIK, in the Tokmak area and further south - there is none at all.
And yes, thanks: somebody up the thread helped localise the road. It's a 'path', dotted by Russian fortifications and trenches, crossed by Ukrainians almost a month ago.
This year August and September were extremely hot. If such a weather continues, the ground will remain quite dry till the winter, maybe even till spring.
Hello Tom. How many mines do you think Russia has left and does it produce them now or supply them from other countries? Was the USSR really afraid of NATO attack if it produced so many mines?
No trace of clue about how many mines they've got.
And re. 'Soviets really afraid of NATO': as much as NATO was afraid of Soviets. And each had its own reasons.
Thank you very much.