Good morning everybody! A short review for this morning, focusing on the, meanwhile, three-four ‘usual’ sectors of the battlefield. Reports from early this morning are indicating a number of explosions at the entry to the (heavily protected, meanwhile), port of Sevastopol.
Hi! Thank you for the update! I don't know if typos are super important but I recognized one and want to inform. "Avidiivka…" -> "Avdiivka…" (6th paragraph).
Let me know if this is a typo or it's just me stupid :)
Quick Questions:
- Do you think the "leasing equipment for Air Defense" strategy will be a powerful improvement for the Winter season?
- Do you think Avdiivka Offensive campaign has something to do with the incoming elections in russia, so it can be sold as "Victory" despite the tremendous equipment losses.
Thanks for the update, Tom, not only this but all the info you used to offer constantly about not only Ukraine but the new round of Holy Land’s infighting (a place where the only “Holy” is just the land, not the people struggling on).
Curious that good ole HAWKS may be so serviciable and useful (the Spanish ones, for instance, where mothballed in a forgotten corner long time ago...), but everything that can give back some “love” to the RuZZians is good. A shame Putin and Keystone Cops are well covered in his bunkers...
There is no reason to take Avdiivka except one person's desire. Pudding can sacrifice lives for just one phrase in his TV speech or meeting with Xi Jinping.
Ich frage mich, was eigentlich die „guten Gründe“ dafür sind, dass die Russische Föderation Awdejewka angreift. Dies ist wahrscheinlich nicht nur eine laute Aussage für die Öffentlichkeit.Anscheinend gibt es einen militärischen Sinn?
Naja... theoretisch wäre eine 'Begradigung des Frontverlaufs' ein guter Grund. Wäre Awdejwka unter russischer Kontrolle, würden sie deutlich weniger Einheiten brauchen um es zu halten.
Es würde auch deutlich den Druck der ukr. Artillerie auf Donetsk verringern.
What has happened to the long-range drone strikes by ZSU deep into Russia? Before ZSU was regularly hitting highrises in Moscow, disrupting the commercial airports and even managed to hit an airbase further than Moscow (though some people say that the drones were launched from Russia). Anyway, I expected with time ZSU to increase the frequency and to diversify its targets to more industrial and infrastructure sites. But it is the opposite - it seems that such strikes have come to a complete halt. But without patiently destroying the industrial base of Russia, I don’t see them winning the war...
The Hawk system has a range of approximately 45 km, so it sits nicely between short range systems like the Gepard and long range like the Patriot/S-300
if I remember correctly, there are only six Hawk batteries sent by Spain, so these might not be able to sustain Ukraine air defense during a heavy Russian missile/drone barrage against civil buildings and infrastructure
In the case of systems like HAWK, Buk, and Osa, it's about the number of missiles available, not about launchers etc.: there are enough HAWKs around to significantly bolster depleted stocks of Buks, while Osa-AKM-rounds seem to be in the process of being adapted to fire either Sparrows or Sidewinders.
Also, HAWKs are much easier to deploy in 'assault mode' than Buks or Osas. Means: one can split a single HAWK SAM-site/battalion into two, and defend a larger area, or two major objects.
Comparing clips of this video to maps of the heap and the Coke Works, it looks like it is situated north of the heap, around 48.186869293225065, 37.71256000046495 (just an assumption, not precise)
I re-subscribed just so I could tell you to go fuck yourself. I cannot believe I read your blog for a year not knowing what an absolutely piss poor analyst you actually were until I started reading your hot takes on Israel/Gaza, passing off cherry-picked, half-baked reporting as fact and hiding behind the whole "I'm just asking questions" horseshit like some stupid boomer on Facebook. I'm really glad you torched your readership.
If he's really a "piss poor analyst" and you read such "piss", "cherry-picked", "half-baked", "horseshit" stuff for a year without knowing, what does that say about you?
About a month ago, you made several mentions about upcoming "good news" from (IIRC) the southeastern region. My first thought upon learning about ATACMS was that this was what you were referencing, but I haven't noticed reference from you about it (while you have admittedly been spread thin with multiple priorities). I was curious if ATACMS were the "good news" you'd been predicting or if there is/was something else.
Nope. It was something related to 'long term effects' - and, sadly, something I still do not feel free to talk about. Even more so because I first want to see any of these effects: mind, at the time there was no re-routing of 155mm shells made for Ukraine to Israel....
Thanks Tom. I have a question. What is sense of cruise missiles? Like they are slowlier, easier to intercept even by Stinger( it is hard but still it is possible) unlike ballistic which are much faster and impossible to be hitted effectively without antibalistic rockets.
Thanks a lot
Thanks for your report Tom! Looks like Russian are buying time again, or are this a limited counteroffensive to gain better positions to the winter?
I've read about MIG-31 caps over Black Sea, but armed with Kinzals. What is this menacing??
Thanks for another encouraging and well prepared report.
BBC news headline this morning was that Ukraine is complaining that Russia is bombarding the supply road to Avdiivka. Seems a weird headline.
Headlines are often weird in any circumstances.
Hi! Thank you for the update! I don't know if typos are super important but I recognized one and want to inform. "Avidiivka…" -> "Avdiivka…" (6th paragraph).
Let me know if this is a typo or it's just me stupid :)
Quick Questions:
- Do you think the "leasing equipment for Air Defense" strategy will be a powerful improvement for the Winter season?
- Do you think Avdiivka Offensive campaign has something to do with the incoming elections in russia, so it can be sold as "Victory" despite the tremendous equipment losses.
- Does that mean anything that russians are storming Avdiivka direction with infantry on "polutoroki" GAZ-AA Cars produced in 1932. (**https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1716106057922036141)
** Not sure how good the link and the info is.
Some info about Avdiivka offensive: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1716492677875748978
* It was planned a long time ahead.
* Russians used current vehicles mostly.
Thanks for the update, Tom, not only this but all the info you used to offer constantly about not only Ukraine but the new round of Holy Land’s infighting (a place where the only “Holy” is just the land, not the people struggling on).
Curious that good ole HAWKS may be so serviciable and useful (the Spanish ones, for instance, where mothballed in a forgotten corner long time ago...), but everything that can give back some “love” to the RuZZians is good. A shame Putin and Keystone Cops are well covered in his bunkers...
Thanks for the update. And now the 'good reasons' for attacking Avdiivka will bug me :) To use up the ZSU's ammo? To take a town?
To push ZSU away from Donetsk which is an important logistics hub.
There is no reason to take Avdiivka except one person's desire. Pudding can sacrifice lives for just one phrase in his TV speech or meeting with Xi Jinping.
I will shorten / smooth out the front line. Thus easier to defend as well.
Ich frage mich, was eigentlich die „guten Gründe“ dafür sind, dass die Russische Föderation Awdejewka angreift. Dies ist wahrscheinlich nicht nur eine laute Aussage für die Öffentlichkeit.Anscheinend gibt es einen militärischen Sinn?
Naja... theoretisch wäre eine 'Begradigung des Frontverlaufs' ein guter Grund. Wäre Awdejwka unter russischer Kontrolle, würden sie deutlich weniger Einheiten brauchen um es zu halten.
Es würde auch deutlich den Druck der ukr. Artillerie auf Donetsk verringern.
Let’s see if the hawks are better than expected and could shoot not only drones, but some k-52 or even fighter.
Hawk hype
Thanks Tom!
What has happened to the long-range drone strikes by ZSU deep into Russia? Before ZSU was regularly hitting highrises in Moscow, disrupting the commercial airports and even managed to hit an airbase further than Moscow (though some people say that the drones were launched from Russia). Anyway, I expected with time ZSU to increase the frequency and to diversify its targets to more industrial and infrastructure sites. But it is the opposite - it seems that such strikes have come to a complete halt. But without patiently destroying the industrial base of Russia, I don’t see them winning the war...
It may be that they are storing up for mass attacks or a sustained campaign
Can the Hawk systems help against the glide bombs ? Do they have the range to shoot the jets carrying them?
Hate the glide bombs and the fuel-air explosives some carry ☹️
The Hawk system has a range of approximately 45 km, so it sits nicely between short range systems like the Gepard and long range like the Patriot/S-300
Nope. Presently, only MIM-104 could do something against Su-34s deploying MPK/UMPKs from 60km away. But, there are only 2.5 of these in operations.
HAWK is a good replacement for Buks, though.
if I remember correctly, there are only six Hawk batteries sent by Spain, so these might not be able to sustain Ukraine air defense during a heavy Russian missile/drone barrage against civil buildings and infrastructure
In the case of systems like HAWK, Buk, and Osa, it's about the number of missiles available, not about launchers etc.: there are enough HAWKs around to significantly bolster depleted stocks of Buks, while Osa-AKM-rounds seem to be in the process of being adapted to fire either Sparrows or Sidewinders.
Also, HAWKs are much easier to deploy in 'assault mode' than Buks or Osas. Means: one can split a single HAWK SAM-site/battalion into two, and defend a larger area, or two major objects.
It depends on the deployment philosophy.
If the Hawks are used for protecting civilian infrastructure, there are too few to cover all of Ukraine against drones and attack helicopters etc.
If these are being used to cover troops, there may be few enough active fronts for achieving adequate coverage before resorting to SHORADS
Russian flag on (a part) of the Hill 230 near Avdiivka https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1716763826685727155
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/17faykg/russian_drone_footage_showing_ukrainian_soldiers/
Comparing clips of this video to maps of the heap and the Coke Works, it looks like it is situated north of the heap, around 48.186869293225065, 37.71256000046495 (just an assumption, not precise)
This was then hit by an Ukrainian FPV, too.... but yes, is an unpleasant development.
I re-subscribed just so I could tell you to go fuck yourself. I cannot believe I read your blog for a year not knowing what an absolutely piss poor analyst you actually were until I started reading your hot takes on Israel/Gaza, passing off cherry-picked, half-baked reporting as fact and hiding behind the whole "I'm just asking questions" horseshit like some stupid boomer on Facebook. I'm really glad you torched your readership.
If he's really a "piss poor analyst" and you read such "piss", "cherry-picked", "half-baked", "horseshit" stuff for a year without knowing, what does that say about you?
Especially as an article about a total different theatre is needed to get enlightened.
Listening carefully to opinions that differ from yours will widen your understanding.
When you argue back with hate, your point is lost in the vitriol, and you have become a hater.
There's no reason for your ego to be so hurt by a person you don't know having an opinion you don't agree with.
I hope you stay subscribed.
About a month ago, you made several mentions about upcoming "good news" from (IIRC) the southeastern region. My first thought upon learning about ATACMS was that this was what you were referencing, but I haven't noticed reference from you about it (while you have admittedly been spread thin with multiple priorities). I was curious if ATACMS were the "good news" you'd been predicting or if there is/was something else.
Nope. It was something related to 'long term effects' - and, sadly, something I still do not feel free to talk about. Even more so because I first want to see any of these effects: mind, at the time there was no re-routing of 155mm shells made for Ukraine to Israel....
Understandable. Thanks for the clarification!
Thanks Tom. I have a question. What is sense of cruise missiles? Like they are slowlier, easier to intercept even by Stinger( it is hard but still it is possible) unlike ballistic which are much faster and impossible to be hitted effectively without antibalistic rockets.
thanks Tom very good report looks like several of the UAF units have been at it a bit to long lets hope they get the rest and refit they need
I am sick of lack of air-defence which can destroy russian air-superiority