Good morning everybody! Seems, it was something like ‘days of mechanised assaults’, the last 36 or so hours: because there are lots of reports about Russian mechanised assaults, and at least as many videos of lots of Russian tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armoured personnel carriers being blown up (and that’s not to talk about all the bodies between them).
Совершенно зря автор и комментаторы удивляются, что русские атакуют по всей линии фронта.
Уже всем ясно и на Украине об этом заявили однозначно, русские проведут крупное наступление в начале июня. То есть через несколько дней.
И все действия русских направлены для повышения шансов на успех этого наступления. Для этого и атаки везде, где можно. Чтобы ВСУ тратило силы и резервы на отражение этих атак.
Более того уже ясно, что в ходе наступления в июне русские нанесут два сильных удара. Один ложный, второй главный.
Проблема ВСУ в том, что хоть стратегические резервы у Украины есть, но их хватит на отражение только одного удара.
100000s NorthKorean and Syrian mercenaries are on their way to Chasiv Yar already, 10000s perfect Iranian missiles and Shakheds as well. Ru claimed offensive will stop in Paris only
Русские об этом не знают. Они заняли территорию, нанесли потери противнику, взяли много пленных. И на этом основании считают, что добились успеха на данный момент.
Вероятность успеха русского наступления в июне, очень высока.
А как же Киев за три дня? Одесса за один день? Все идет по плану…может Черноморский флот спросим как там на глубине прятаться? Семечки не забудь взять когда в Одессу войдешь, чтобы хоть что-то полезное выросло.
The Kharkov offensive was so successful that Shoigu was dismissed and several generals were imprisoned. The Russian forces had all the conditions for a breakthrough: poor Ukrainian positions, low-quality units, artillery shortages, extensive preparation time, and minimal risk of Western interference during deployment.
Yet, the results were underwhelming. There were more Ukrainian prisoners taken during the Severodonetsk push than in this operation, and significantly fewer Russian prisoners and casualties.
Two more attacks like this would achieve nothing, only increasing the deaths of Russian mercenary soldiers. More importantly, such offensives would result in the loss of many Ukrainian civilian lives and the destruction of their homes.
It's my suspicion that the Kharkiv offensive was but a pretext for the major shake-up in the Defense Ministry and Army leadership.
The decision to make sweeping changes in the Ministry of Defense must have been taken months ago (my guess), and the process started with the installing of a new civilian leader as Defense Minister - he obviously will want new people to augment him, not Shoigu's cronies.
So, Shoigu was repositioned (a horizontal promotion, if you wish, instead of falling figuratively and literally), and there'll be some upheaval in the ministry and the Army leadership.
Using corruption charges is a time-honored method to get rid of competition in higher echelons of the Russian military, as far as I understand.
Looks like Konashenkov was appointed as Tom’s main follower on Internet.
Nice try, (un)dear Mr. Konashenkov, but c’mon: to write posts and is not the same as to make videos, sometimes you could be answered or asked about bshitz you wrote about.
PS: and yeah, learn EN. Russian is not a world spoken language, “Berlin in 3 days” OP is far from its success.
Odd choice of words for a russian. "русские" refers to ethnic russians. The word for citizien of russia is "россиянин". Are you claiming only ethnic Russians are taking part in a war, or you just google translated to Russian from other language?
Thank for report. Honestly I can't understand wherether Russian SAMs can shot down Atacams? Because it looks like that they react to at least some missles but ,unlike PAC 3, they don't have direct impact interceptors, so it doesn't always help with cluster warhead?
Secondly, do Russians use UMPK with fab 3000?
Thirdly, it looks like situation with ManPads start to improve.
S-300PMU /S-400 can track ATACMS well enough to give a fireing solution, otherwise the SAMs wouldn't leave the tube, but without active radar homing head and hit to kill interceptors like PAC-3 it is extremley difficult to hit an incoming SRBM in the terminal phase. Their guidance sections are not accurate and fast enough to adjust in time for a direct hit and the proximity fuzes are optimized for slower targets like jets.
Actually, the dedicated anti ballistic SAM is the S-300V, the one mounted on tracked vehicles, but there are very few of them around. Plus they have been whacked before by GMLRS and drones, so not sure how well they would work.
ATACMS bomblets start to disperse well inside the minimum engagement range of the S-300/400 so that is not a factor.
I think the ATACMS have some of the most advanced maneuvering Algorithms that adapt in realtime to threats. A lot of AI paradigms we use today were first implemented in these military systems. I bet the Russians are at least trying to collect data on its trajectories and try to figure out the algorithm.
"(...) the USA are still prohibiting deployment of US-made weapons against targets on the Russian territory. (...) who’s going to make more of idiotic decisions about this war….?"
You repeatedly emphasize your contempt for the deliberate restriction on the use of American weapons on Russian soil.
I ask again: Doesn't it seem obvious to you that this decision was made under pressure from China? And that this concession is more acceptable to the Americans than an escalation of hostilities by China massively supporting Russia with weapons?
By side that, if the USA let themselves be blackmailed by China - and that just around the time the PRC is both starting to deliver lethal military aid to Pudding, and flying aerial exercises all around Taiwan... then we're doomed as 'Western civilisation'.
Point is this: Biden, Blinken and Sullivan are just all too dumb to understand what are they facing. That's why no blackmails by China could ever work - even if Beijing would try anything of that kind.
The way the situation is, it needs not doing that. Precisely because 'top US strategists' (and top EU-strategists, too) are all too dumb but to comprehend that the time is running out and we all need to switch the way we think about our situation, and the threats we're facing.
Thank you, that's an extraordinary answer, I almost don't dare imagine what that means in concrete terms: Are we already in a global power struggle for the dominance of the Western model of civilization, which coincidentally has so far been taking place primarily in Ukraine?
And do you think that we have to face this fight consciously, offensively and courageously, regardless of how intense and comprehensive it would be?
Is there no longer any possibility of understanding, compromise and coexistence? Is the multipolar world synonymous with the downfall of the West?
I guess your question must be addressed to Putin, who started the full invasion of Ukraine after a meeting with Xi, where they declared "unlimited friendship". For sure they exploited the opportunity of a weakened West after the pandemic. (If I was a conspiracy theorist, I would still wonder whether the SARS-Cov2 was not engineered by the Chinese though, exactly with the purpose of weakening the West, but let's agree with the official version for now). China declared, several times after the war begun, that we all must accept a "new, multi-polar wolrd order". Also, China was aiming to replace the USA as no 1 economic power already in 2023. There were a lot of articles about the role of the Global South in all these developments. Apparently, the Global South (India, Brazil, Argentina, SA etc) takes advantage of the situation, economically, and thus it is not supporting the West. I feel like in the book of Orwell...And we have now more like a bi-polar disorder, than a multi-polar order...
In my opinion, it is already a harsh battle for global dominance. The Ukraine war depends on the Ukrainians and what they want to do. But the war for dominance will continue; it will start somewhere else. What we should urgently do, personally I can't say because I do not have all the data. Only a gathering of experts in different key fields can give an idea. I would say we must be united, in the first place, and keep providing a steady support, not as it was with blocking the aid for 6 months. And we must find a way to isolate Russia better from the Global South; to attract more allies on our side. This is difficult but not impossible. Unfortunately some "diplomatic" things are behind doors and we don't know what's on the table. And sometimes that could be against the will of the people:((
Just like the bird flu that jumped to mammals and is now testing out how to jump from dairy cows to humans, viruses are always evolving. Nobody can control the process well enough to effectively replicate what nature does all the effing time. And nobody would want to. China dodged a massive bullet with its pandemic response - barely. The pandemic benefited no one. That's why serious biowarfare doesn't happen.
I don't say it was engineered :) But can you exclude that 100%? I think one can not. I know well the evolutionary theories; I work in the field. What I wanted to say is that a conspiracy would perfectly fit the current political outcomes. And allow me to observe that man always wanted to interfere with nature. This is why we have nuclear bombs (and also nuclear energy). But luckily, man has very limited capabilities, compared to nature :) IMHO serious biowarfare doesn't happen for the same reason nuclear war doesn't happen. There is such a thin line.
Too dumb - or just so committed to the status quo that any change means Ragnarok...
The epitaph of "Western Civilization" will be "got so smart they became total cowards."
Better Red than dead, they believe.
This why I think Greta Thunberg is awesome, but also delusional. You really think any government will ever "listen to the people" when our economies will crash and the world will go to war if you stop using fossil fuels? You really believe any will make the level of investments required to build an alternative energy system in time to matter?
Study how governance really works. I dare you. The battle for the future is a war of the rest of us against a small group of bastards who have inherited a tremendous amount of power and are absolutely planning to let most of us die while they bunker up.
Look at the subtext in the US media of late - Ukrainians are being blamed for not stupidly accepting a false peace where Biden gets to be proclaimed the savior of democracy simply because Kyiv didn't fall like Kabul did. Meanwhile he absolutely tried to sell Ukraine to Putin because that's how our would-be masters operate.
What they don't get yet is that warfare is becoming extremely democratized. The future is gonna be intense, and Ukraine is teaching vital lessons to everybody with the stomach to pay attention and the sense to learn.
No need pressure from China. It's enough if e.g. Russia threaten USA to give drones, missiles to some militia in Syria to attack the USA base there etc.
If you're claiming that your state is worldwide policeman, you saw breach of international law and then you found yourself in the situation that your're struggling to deal with criminal and his relatives by compromises of this law - I think you're fuc.ed up with your role of policeman. And you already divided world by yourself to states that can't ignore the law (your law of policeman) and states that can do that they want if they strong enough to deal with them by your policeman gun or baton.
More likely it's not only one policeman, but let's say 5 (e.g. the permanent members of the UN security council). And there is a situation where 2 of them are corrupted and use their position for their own interests, one doesn't care because he's not much affected and only the other 2 are realising it's really wrong for the people and are trying to fix something. The issue is not that Western civilisation is on downfall with a multi-polar world order, it is that we don't have any law and order any more with the current multi-polar shit, we have force/power and corruption.
USA officials has never claimed to be "world policeman", contrary they do not like it. And the term in the international politics does not mean that such "world policeman" would restore order and law, it just means country is able to enforce it's international politics (which may be far from the law how is globally perceived) by soft or hard power. E.g. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_policeman
Thank you so much, Tom. --- Isn't it bad news for Ukraine that Putin is renewing the GenStab ? Without corruption among the military deciders and a more modern and efficient GenStab, the Russian armed forces are maybe able to do better ? --- Seeing all the action the Ukrainians are putting into Crimea, I start wondering whether there is not a bigger movement planned against the peninsula ? I am not talking about the Kerch bridge as a main objectif or infantry assaults and not this summer but maybe a bit later in 2025. Something else could be planned if there will be fighter planes at some point ?) As you know well, I am not a military expert. So please, pardon if thisis dumb. If you miss Konashenkov so much, try Maria Zakharova. I will always remember when she complained a few days after the Russian invasion against Ukraine, that Ukraine is stealing and robbing everything from Russia : even the bortch do they claim to be Ukrainian.
Destruction of air defences in Crimea should clear a path to long-range UAV strikes on Krasnodar region, as well as Crimea itself. So that airfields and navy bases could be hit more easily, not to talk about oil refineries.
Dear Tom, please note that something is also happening with some field commanders, at least 2 were mentioned. What if those genshtab and morf changes are two different strategies? One is for this year, and another is for the next.
One interesting thing I note, is that at the peak of vagner push it was 60 to 1 in terms of people to armors (tanks, bmp, btrs, mtlbs and all).
While this year's it holds steadily at 25, means it is a strategy, or let us say tactics. But then it seems not enough for achieving this year goals, so maybe the push goes to abandon this tactics, in favour of increasing people involvement, like good ol' vagner times?
Thanks for the update! I have a question: how long can the Russians just send their soldiers into a pointless meat grinder before the morale collapses? Is there even a way to monitor this?
Imagine you have a firm with 60 employees, doing a risky, but well paid job. Say every month you see 3 having troubles, 1 is getting killed and 2 wounded, their families receive bonuses, and those wounded sometimes get back, and also you have 3 new persons each months. How long it would take you to get low morale?
Yes. But I was referring more to who is making business with them, and to who is giving them credit. In this case, mainly China. For how long can it last, we will see. This is why it seems sanctions do not work, but I am not sure about that. Think to the Iron Curtain. I've seen it from both sides. In communism it was all pink, on paper. Reality was very different, though.
- head of PR is just an idiot telling noncences every morning
There are 40men workers:
- 20 are always drunk
- head of construction- full idiot, so workers are rolling square things and carry round things
- 2 died and their bodies lie in hall, but nobody care
- 2 went missing and their wifes are crying in directors waiting room
- 4 were injured and became invalid: 1 got full payment, 1 got less thrn promised, 2 got nothing because they have no proofs they were injured while working
- 3 wanted to leave, but are being punished just in front of HR room
- 5 further candidates are waiting nearby for an interview
As long as the soldiers are from the periphery and not from the the metropolis cities, there are possibly 5 or 10 of them, nobody will care. Once you start mobilizing from say Moscow or Leningrad, then people will start screaming bloody murder.
As long as there are enough Russians willing to go earning money for getting killed in Ukraine.
Right now, that rate is at around 30,000 a month - and steady. And that's also about the maximum the VSRF can mobilise per month.
If you wonder about how comes the Russians are doing this: mind, the West is subjected to 100+ years of Zionist PRBS, resulting in its oligarchy and most the public becoming horny to either support or ignore a genocide. In the case of Russian it's 'only' 20+ years of Pudding's rule that was enough time to craze the Russians into a similar way of thinking.
Yes, it kinda lottery. But their have to increase the winner price to attract same amount of people as before, so the steady rate of incoming meat cost higher and higher price.
One point of notice: the Russian attack through the Kharkiv border coincided with the strong geomagnetic storm which is a kind of natural EW against satellite communications.
It is possible that they started the attack earlier than originally planned because they found out that the storm would help them to suppress Starlinks.
Thank you Tom!!! As long as there are no controls on how and where the money’s going in and out of such a bureaucracy as GenShtab, rest assured changing heads will not change the outcome ))
Hi Tom, many thanks for your post and also for the update. I was able to see the video related to the screenshots you added and that was indeed a huge firework.
Technical question, if I may: How many ATACMS missiles do you reckon were needed, to plaster the (fairly large) area of the launchers with DPICM?
Re. how many: if I'm not wrong, the video is showing just 2 hits. Word is that 5 have been launched, but then: they should have targeted a total of 2 SAM-sites (both S-400s).
"…sigh… no idea what exactly went wrong there on the Ukrainian side, but that famous itch in my small toe is telling me I need to take a closer look." Please enlight us in the next updates
R-37s... big missile. Wonder what the RCS is? Flight profile can't be as vertical as a ballistic missile and speed isn't higher than a Kinzhal, right?
I don't like the cost ratio involved in using a PAC-2 interceptor to down an AAM, but if it saves a pilot's life...
And if it could be reliably done, aircraft operating closer to the front lines becomes possible again. Though ECM is probably going to be a faster option - another routine mission for F-16 pilots might be simple EW cover for Sukhois toting glide bombs.
No idea about the RCS but yes, should be big enough to detect by radars. Just: the PSU has not enough PACs to go shooting down AAMs.
In the case of such long-range missiles, the speed depends on the range - because they're all flying ballisticaly. The longer the range, the higher the missiles like R-37 climbs. If it's fired over some 150km or so, it's going to come down at something like Mach 4.
Right now - and for few years longer (at least until the PSU gets JAS.39s) - better ECM is the only way out of this problem...
Yeah UAF can’t expend the ordnance on an AAM regularly, but pulling it off once or twice might make the orcs shift tactics to their disadvantage.
ECM and decoys. Gotta hope the combo is enough. Effing glide bombs. I like you’re idea for a derivative of the Oto-Melara 76mm, by the way. With the right radar support it might even be able to knock down glide bombs. Orlans at least. Easier than building an Orlan-killing drone, I’ll bet.
For hitting the Sukhois carrying these gliding bombs, the Ukraine air force would need something like the MBDA Meteor. And the only western jets I know which can carry it are the EF2000, the Gripen and the Rafale. Not the F-16 (unless the manufacturer integrates it into the jets about to be delivered to Ukraine?)
The OTO Melara is not suitable for attacking reconnaissance drones at 5+ km altitude. Neither for stopping a barrage of gliding bombs. It's a giant revolver with six rounds in a drum, when these are exhausted, you have to reload the drum (as far as I know). Better to deploy something like the Sea Sparrow missile, with enough range to hit Ka-52 and high altitude drones.
The article states that an upgrade to an AESA radar is required (?) (and that would mean additional delays and costs), plus work by the manufacturer (Lockheed) to integrate the missile into the aircraft software.
We don't even know which exact configuration of F-16s will Ukraine receive, and if it'll be a unified variant - if different versions of F-16 end up in Ukraine, it'll be a quite hard job for Lockheed to integrate the Meteor to all these old jets...
(it's not only software integration, but aerodynamic testing, verification that the new weapon can be released from the aircraft in various speeds, angles of attack, G-forces etc).
There are still nasty surprises happening during such (expensive) tests, like these examples show (that's why there are large facilities like China Lake and Air Force Test Facility):
Thanks for the update. I really wonder if Gerasimov wont turn against Putin or if Putin wont try to preemptively punish or sideline Gerasimov and Shoigu. The moves of accusing their deputies of corruption seems like a clear signal at least that Gerasimov is going to get a side ways "promotion" as well. Reminds me of the sidways promotions Dictator Obote made in Uganda in the 60s to early 70s which led to his first coup by Idi Amin. Then when Nyerere returned him, Kayiira and M7's rebel activities forced him into another sideways promotions which led to his second coup. Similarly this makes me think Gerasimov still has a lot of influence within the Genstaff and possibly has a large loyalty pyramid(but I dont know if this is true). There were also rumours that Shoigu sent soldiers of a Special Forces Military Unit to protect his deputy Timur Ivanov from arrest by the FSB for sometime. So the arrest was delayed by this. Dont know how true this but it makes sense to me at least(https://x.com/Nachoville01/status/1793991318168805794).
I also wonder what your thoughts are about the arrest of Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov. Seems a serious shake up of the Genstab is in the offing and hopefully it will backfire on Putin internally.
Also why are the Russians moving their S-400 systems so close to the front?
Thanks again, Tom. Im sure the Russians will find another sock puppet to replace Konashenkov’s place in your thoughts!!??!!
Thank you, Maksim.
And re. Konashenkov's replacement: have you got an idea how hard is it to adapt to new faces - in my age? :P
I guess you hold the following expert also in loving memories to this day:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muhammad_Saeed_al-Sahhaf
Совершенно зря автор и комментаторы удивляются, что русские атакуют по всей линии фронта.
Уже всем ясно и на Украине об этом заявили однозначно, русские проведут крупное наступление в начале июня. То есть через несколько дней.
И все действия русских направлены для повышения шансов на успех этого наступления. Для этого и атаки везде, где можно. Чтобы ВСУ тратило силы и резервы на отражение этих атак.
Более того уже ясно, что в ходе наступления в июне русские нанесут два сильных удара. Один ложный, второй главный.
Проблема ВСУ в том, что хоть стратегические резервы у Украины есть, но их хватит на отражение только одного удара.
I love predictions. So much so, I can't say...
BTW, while you're at making them: when the Russians attack again, in June, and then fail, like they've failed in northern Kharkiv, what then?
Namely, word is that all the possible offensives are in vain if unsuccessful.
100000s NorthKorean and Syrian mercenaries are on their way to Chasiv Yar already, 10000s perfect Iranian missiles and Shakheds as well. Ru claimed offensive will stop in Paris only
Неудача в северном Харькове?
Русские об этом не знают. Они заняли территорию, нанесли потери противнику, взяли много пленных. И на этом основании считают, что добились успеха на данный момент.
Вероятность успеха русского наступления в июне, очень высока.
Don’t forget: ru have destroyed x2 Ukrainian vehicles compared to Rus!!! (It doesn’t matter that it is literally 22 vs 13, but who cares, right?)
22 на 13?
Не буду проверять, может и так.
Но если русская армия за месяц получает 150 единиц техники в неделю, а Украина 50 единиц техники, то потери 22 на 13 очень выгодны для русских.
Важны не только потери, но и скорость их компенсации.
So, mr Konashenkov, please, clarify: 150 monthly or weekly? Monthly Ru army gets 150 vehicles weekly makes no sense for me))
How do you know number of vehicles supplied to UA? Any reliable source?
А как же Киев за три дня? Одесса за один день? Все идет по плану…может Черноморский флот спросим как там на глубине прятаться? Семечки не забудь взять когда в Одессу войдешь, чтобы хоть что-то полезное выросло.
The Kharkov offensive was so successful that Shoigu was dismissed and several generals were imprisoned. The Russian forces had all the conditions for a breakthrough: poor Ukrainian positions, low-quality units, artillery shortages, extensive preparation time, and minimal risk of Western interference during deployment.
Yet, the results were underwhelming. There were more Ukrainian prisoners taken during the Severodonetsk push than in this operation, and significantly fewer Russian prisoners and casualties.
Two more attacks like this would achieve nothing, only increasing the deaths of Russian mercenary soldiers. More importantly, such offensives would result in the loss of many Ukrainian civilian lives and the destruction of their homes.
It's my suspicion that the Kharkiv offensive was but a pretext for the major shake-up in the Defense Ministry and Army leadership.
The decision to make sweeping changes in the Ministry of Defense must have been taken months ago (my guess), and the process started with the installing of a new civilian leader as Defense Minister - he obviously will want new people to augment him, not Shoigu's cronies.
So, Shoigu was repositioned (a horizontal promotion, if you wish, instead of falling figuratively and literally), and there'll be some upheaval in the ministry and the Army leadership.
Using corruption charges is a time-honored method to get rid of competition in higher echelons of the Russian military, as far as I understand.
Самые успешные российские наступления происходят в будущем.
Вечно отдаленном и чистом, как коммунизм.
Looks like Konashenkov was appointed as Tom’s main follower on Internet.
Nice try, (un)dear Mr. Konashenkov, but c’mon: to write posts and is not the same as to make videos, sometimes you could be answered or asked about bshitz you wrote about.
PS: and yeah, learn EN. Russian is not a world spoken language, “Berlin in 3 days” OP is far from its success.
Odd choice of words for a russian. "русские" refers to ethnic russians. The word for citizien of russia is "россиянин". Are you claiming only ethnic Russians are taking part in a war, or you just google translated to Russian from other language?
don't feed this troll..
Thank for report. Honestly I can't understand wherether Russian SAMs can shot down Atacams? Because it looks like that they react to at least some missles but ,unlike PAC 3, they don't have direct impact interceptors, so it doesn't always help with cluster warhead?
Secondly, do Russians use UMPK with fab 3000?
Thirdly, it looks like situation with ManPads start to improve.
S-300PMU /S-400 can track ATACMS well enough to give a fireing solution, otherwise the SAMs wouldn't leave the tube, but without active radar homing head and hit to kill interceptors like PAC-3 it is extremley difficult to hit an incoming SRBM in the terminal phase. Their guidance sections are not accurate and fast enough to adjust in time for a direct hit and the proximity fuzes are optimized for slower targets like jets.
Actually, the dedicated anti ballistic SAM is the S-300V, the one mounted on tracked vehicles, but there are very few of them around. Plus they have been whacked before by GMLRS and drones, so not sure how well they would work.
ATACMS bomblets start to disperse well inside the minimum engagement range of the S-300/400 so that is not a factor.
ATACMS's are ballistic missiles with a flight ceiling of 50 Km which makes them hard to hit as S300/S400 cannot reach so high.
They are usually targeted by air defence at the reentry stage where they come down almost vertically at very high speed.
Even if an air defence missile hits them then often the remains of both fall on the target which is less than helpfull.
The S300v is believed to have a ceiling of 20 Km.
I think the ATACMS have some of the most advanced maneuvering Algorithms that adapt in realtime to threats. A lot of AI paradigms we use today were first implemented in these military systems. I bet the Russians are at least trying to collect data on its trajectories and try to figure out the algorithm.
"(...) the USA are still prohibiting deployment of US-made weapons against targets on the Russian territory. (...) who’s going to make more of idiotic decisions about this war….?"
You repeatedly emphasize your contempt for the deliberate restriction on the use of American weapons on Russian soil.
I ask again: Doesn't it seem obvious to you that this decision was made under pressure from China? And that this concession is more acceptable to the Americans than an escalation of hostilities by China massively supporting Russia with weapons?
By side that, if the USA let themselves be blackmailed by China - and that just around the time the PRC is both starting to deliver lethal military aid to Pudding, and flying aerial exercises all around Taiwan... then we're doomed as 'Western civilisation'.
Point is this: Biden, Blinken and Sullivan are just all too dumb to understand what are they facing. That's why no blackmails by China could ever work - even if Beijing would try anything of that kind.
The way the situation is, it needs not doing that. Precisely because 'top US strategists' (and top EU-strategists, too) are all too dumb but to comprehend that the time is running out and we all need to switch the way we think about our situation, and the threats we're facing.
Thank you, that's an extraordinary answer, I almost don't dare imagine what that means in concrete terms: Are we already in a global power struggle for the dominance of the Western model of civilization, which coincidentally has so far been taking place primarily in Ukraine?
And do you think that we have to face this fight consciously, offensively and courageously, regardless of how intense and comprehensive it would be?
Is there no longer any possibility of understanding, compromise and coexistence? Is the multipolar world synonymous with the downfall of the West?
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
Para bellum, ne feceris.
I guess your question must be addressed to Putin, who started the full invasion of Ukraine after a meeting with Xi, where they declared "unlimited friendship". For sure they exploited the opportunity of a weakened West after the pandemic. (If I was a conspiracy theorist, I would still wonder whether the SARS-Cov2 was not engineered by the Chinese though, exactly with the purpose of weakening the West, but let's agree with the official version for now). China declared, several times after the war begun, that we all must accept a "new, multi-polar wolrd order". Also, China was aiming to replace the USA as no 1 economic power already in 2023. There were a lot of articles about the role of the Global South in all these developments. Apparently, the Global South (India, Brazil, Argentina, SA etc) takes advantage of the situation, economically, and thus it is not supporting the West. I feel like in the book of Orwell...And we have now more like a bi-polar disorder, than a multi-polar order...
I can follow your thoughts and mostly agree with them, but the crucial and urgent question at the moment is how should we actually behave.
How exactly can effective aid and support for Ukraine be arranged without this leading to a decisive battle between systems for global dominance?
In my opinion, it is already a harsh battle for global dominance. The Ukraine war depends on the Ukrainians and what they want to do. But the war for dominance will continue; it will start somewhere else. What we should urgently do, personally I can't say because I do not have all the data. Only a gathering of experts in different key fields can give an idea. I would say we must be united, in the first place, and keep providing a steady support, not as it was with blocking the aid for 6 months. And we must find a way to isolate Russia better from the Global South; to attract more allies on our side. This is difficult but not impossible. Unfortunately some "diplomatic" things are behind doors and we don't know what's on the table. And sometimes that could be against the will of the people:((
No, Covid was not engineered by anyone.
Just like the bird flu that jumped to mammals and is now testing out how to jump from dairy cows to humans, viruses are always evolving. Nobody can control the process well enough to effectively replicate what nature does all the effing time. And nobody would want to. China dodged a massive bullet with its pandemic response - barely. The pandemic benefited no one. That's why serious biowarfare doesn't happen.
I don't say it was engineered :) But can you exclude that 100%? I think one can not. I know well the evolutionary theories; I work in the field. What I wanted to say is that a conspiracy would perfectly fit the current political outcomes. And allow me to observe that man always wanted to interfere with nature. This is why we have nuclear bombs (and also nuclear energy). But luckily, man has very limited capabilities, compared to nature :) IMHO serious biowarfare doesn't happen for the same reason nuclear war doesn't happen. There is such a thin line.
Too dumb - or just so committed to the status quo that any change means Ragnarok...
The epitaph of "Western Civilization" will be "got so smart they became total cowards."
Better Red than dead, they believe.
This why I think Greta Thunberg is awesome, but also delusional. You really think any government will ever "listen to the people" when our economies will crash and the world will go to war if you stop using fossil fuels? You really believe any will make the level of investments required to build an alternative energy system in time to matter?
Study how governance really works. I dare you. The battle for the future is a war of the rest of us against a small group of bastards who have inherited a tremendous amount of power and are absolutely planning to let most of us die while they bunker up.
Look at the subtext in the US media of late - Ukrainians are being blamed for not stupidly accepting a false peace where Biden gets to be proclaimed the savior of democracy simply because Kyiv didn't fall like Kabul did. Meanwhile he absolutely tried to sell Ukraine to Putin because that's how our would-be masters operate.
What they don't get yet is that warfare is becoming extremely democratized. The future is gonna be intense, and Ukraine is teaching vital lessons to everybody with the stomach to pay attention and the sense to learn.
/end anarchist rant
That rant was great, thank you :)
No need pressure from China. It's enough if e.g. Russia threaten USA to give drones, missiles to some militia in Syria to attack the USA base there etc.
If you're claiming that your state is worldwide policeman, you saw breach of international law and then you found yourself in the situation that your're struggling to deal with criminal and his relatives by compromises of this law - I think you're fuc.ed up with your role of policeman. And you already divided world by yourself to states that can't ignore the law (your law of policeman) and states that can do that they want if they strong enough to deal with them by your policeman gun or baton.
More likely it's not only one policeman, but let's say 5 (e.g. the permanent members of the UN security council). And there is a situation where 2 of them are corrupted and use their position for their own interests, one doesn't care because he's not much affected and only the other 2 are realising it's really wrong for the people and are trying to fix something. The issue is not that Western civilisation is on downfall with a multi-polar world order, it is that we don't have any law and order any more with the current multi-polar shit, we have force/power and corruption.
USA officials has never claimed to be "world policeman", contrary they do not like it. And the term in the international politics does not mean that such "world policeman" would restore order and law, it just means country is able to enforce it's international politics (which may be far from the law how is globally perceived) by soft or hard power. E.g. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_policeman
Ty for the update Tom. Always anticipating your posts and your insights.
Thank you so much, Tom. --- Isn't it bad news for Ukraine that Putin is renewing the GenStab ? Without corruption among the military deciders and a more modern and efficient GenStab, the Russian armed forces are maybe able to do better ? --- Seeing all the action the Ukrainians are putting into Crimea, I start wondering whether there is not a bigger movement planned against the peninsula ? I am not talking about the Kerch bridge as a main objectif or infantry assaults and not this summer but maybe a bit later in 2025. Something else could be planned if there will be fighter planes at some point ?) As you know well, I am not a military expert. So please, pardon if thisis dumb. If you miss Konashenkov so much, try Maria Zakharova. I will always remember when she complained a few days after the Russian invasion against Ukraine, that Ukraine is stealing and robbing everything from Russia : even the bortch do they claim to be Ukrainian.
Destruction of air defences in Crimea should clear a path to long-range UAV strikes on Krasnodar region, as well as Crimea itself. So that airfields and navy bases could be hit more easily, not to talk about oil refineries.
Ok. So the present actions ' aim is to destroy Crimea's role as a military basis and base . And loose its strategic importance.
Thanks for the update, Tom. A pity all your work on ORBATs was squandered (used to be the first thing I’m looking in your books).
And me also may miss Konashenko. He leave the comic level very high for his replacement.
Oh thanks... but, please, don't worry: books are going to remain full of ORBATs.
Indeed, this one is going to contain some 10-11 lists of aircraft and ORBATs:
https://www.helion.co.uk/military-history-books/war-in-ukraine-volume-6-air-war-february-december-2022.php
i can’t say anything less than Wooah!
As a book collector is good the series grow, grow… but about more pages mean more suffering for suffering people. Sad realities.
Dear Tom, please note that something is also happening with some field commanders, at least 2 were mentioned. What if those genshtab and morf changes are two different strategies? One is for this year, and another is for the next.
One interesting thing I note, is that at the peak of vagner push it was 60 to 1 in terms of people to armors (tanks, bmp, btrs, mtlbs and all).
While this year's it holds steadily at 25, means it is a strategy, or let us say tactics. But then it seems not enough for achieving this year goals, so maybe the push goes to abandon this tactics, in favour of increasing people involvement, like good ol' vagner times?
Here is some handy data, if you don't have it, though they have abandoned reporting airstrikes, mlrs and artillery strikes on both sides, which was quite revealing: https://lookerstudio.google.com/reporting/dfbcec47-7b01-400e-ab21-de8eb98c8f3a
Yup, the C-in-Cs 20th and 58th CAA have been sacked.
Thanks for the link: must read carefully and think about all of this for a few days...
Thanks for the update! I have a question: how long can the Russians just send their soldiers into a pointless meat grinder before the morale collapses? Is there even a way to monitor this?
Imagine you have a firm with 60 employees, doing a risky, but well paid job. Say every month you see 3 having troubles, 1 is getting killed and 2 wounded, their families receive bonuses, and those wounded sometimes get back, and also you have 3 new persons each months. How long it would take you to get low morale?
Indefinitely, but only if money continued to flow. Question is, is the money infinite? From where is the firm making money?
From oil and gas I suppose? Maybe from diamonds, wood, and some other stuff.
Yes. But I was referring more to who is making business with them, and to who is giving them credit. In this case, mainly China. For how long can it last, we will see. This is why it seems sanctions do not work, but I am not sure about that. Think to the Iron Curtain. I've seen it from both sides. In communism it was all pink, on paper. Reality was very different, though.
Too ideal situation. 60 men firm:
- director had stolen 20% of its net income
- every its deputy - another 2-5%
- so, lets say: up to 35-40% together.
- secretary is always drunk and tells bshitz
- head of PR is just an idiot telling noncences every morning
There are 40men workers:
- 20 are always drunk
- head of construction- full idiot, so workers are rolling square things and carry round things
- 2 died and their bodies lie in hall, but nobody care
- 2 went missing and their wifes are crying in directors waiting room
- 4 were injured and became invalid: 1 got full payment, 1 got less thrn promised, 2 got nothing because they have no proofs they were injured while working
- 3 wanted to leave, but are being punished just in front of HR room
- 5 further candidates are waiting nearby for an interview
What is average morale in such firm?
Yes, the situation will erode, but it takes time...
As long as the soldiers are from the periphery and not from the the metropolis cities, there are possibly 5 or 10 of them, nobody will care. Once you start mobilizing from say Moscow or Leningrad, then people will start screaming bloody murder.
As long as there are enough Russians willing to go earning money for getting killed in Ukraine.
Right now, that rate is at around 30,000 a month - and steady. And that's also about the maximum the VSRF can mobilise per month.
If you wonder about how comes the Russians are doing this: mind, the West is subjected to 100+ years of Zionist PRBS, resulting in its oligarchy and most the public becoming horny to either support or ignore a genocide. In the case of Russian it's 'only' 20+ years of Pudding's rule that was enough time to craze the Russians into a similar way of thinking.
But reports are, that the promised fee to conscript to the army has significantly increased, even to 1 mil. of rubles.
Yes, it was announced that the fee was increased.
How many are getting it at all....?
Yes, it kinda lottery. But their have to increase the winner price to attract same amount of people as before, so the steady rate of incoming meat cost higher and higher price.
One point of notice: the Russian attack through the Kharkiv border coincided with the strong geomagnetic storm which is a kind of natural EW against satellite communications.
It is possible that they started the attack earlier than originally planned because they found out that the storm would help them to suppress Starlinks.
Definitely something worth keeping in mind, yup.
Thank you Tom!!! As long as there are no controls on how and where the money’s going in and out of such a bureaucracy as GenShtab, rest assured changing heads will not change the outcome ))
Hi Tom, many thanks for your post and also for the update. I was able to see the video related to the screenshots you added and that was indeed a huge firework.
Technical question, if I may: How many ATACMS missiles do you reckon were needed, to plaster the (fairly large) area of the launchers with DPICM?
All the best and take care
My pleasure.
Re. how many: if I'm not wrong, the video is showing just 2 hits. Word is that 5 have been launched, but then: they should have targeted a total of 2 SAM-sites (both S-400s).
Understand. Many thanks for making the effort to respond!
"…sigh… no idea what exactly went wrong there on the Ukrainian side, but that famous itch in my small toe is telling me I need to take a closer look." Please enlight us in the next updates
R-37s... big missile. Wonder what the RCS is? Flight profile can't be as vertical as a ballistic missile and speed isn't higher than a Kinzhal, right?
I don't like the cost ratio involved in using a PAC-2 interceptor to down an AAM, but if it saves a pilot's life...
And if it could be reliably done, aircraft operating closer to the front lines becomes possible again. Though ECM is probably going to be a faster option - another routine mission for F-16 pilots might be simple EW cover for Sukhois toting glide bombs.
No idea about the RCS but yes, should be big enough to detect by radars. Just: the PSU has not enough PACs to go shooting down AAMs.
In the case of such long-range missiles, the speed depends on the range - because they're all flying ballisticaly. The longer the range, the higher the missiles like R-37 climbs. If it's fired over some 150km or so, it's going to come down at something like Mach 4.
Right now - and for few years longer (at least until the PSU gets JAS.39s) - better ECM is the only way out of this problem...
Thanks!
Yeah UAF can’t expend the ordnance on an AAM regularly, but pulling it off once or twice might make the orcs shift tactics to their disadvantage.
ECM and decoys. Gotta hope the combo is enough. Effing glide bombs. I like you’re idea for a derivative of the Oto-Melara 76mm, by the way. With the right radar support it might even be able to knock down glide bombs. Orlans at least. Easier than building an Orlan-killing drone, I’ll bet.
For hitting the Sukhois carrying these gliding bombs, the Ukraine air force would need something like the MBDA Meteor. And the only western jets I know which can carry it are the EF2000, the Gripen and the Rafale. Not the F-16 (unless the manufacturer integrates it into the jets about to be delivered to Ukraine?)
The OTO Melara is not suitable for attacking reconnaissance drones at 5+ km altitude. Neither for stopping a barrage of gliding bombs. It's a giant revolver with six rounds in a drum, when these are exhausted, you have to reload the drum (as far as I know). Better to deploy something like the Sea Sparrow missile, with enough range to hit Ka-52 and high altitude drones.
It should be technically possible to integrate Meteors with F16s, e.g. https://mil.in.ua/en/articles/meteor-potential-improvement-of-ukrainian-f-16/
The article states that an upgrade to an AESA radar is required (?) (and that would mean additional delays and costs), plus work by the manufacturer (Lockheed) to integrate the missile into the aircraft software.
We don't even know which exact configuration of F-16s will Ukraine receive, and if it'll be a unified variant - if different versions of F-16 end up in Ukraine, it'll be a quite hard job for Lockheed to integrate the Meteor to all these old jets...
(it's not only software integration, but aerodynamic testing, verification that the new weapon can be released from the aircraft in various speeds, angles of attack, G-forces etc).
There are still nasty surprises happening during such (expensive) tests, like these examples show (that's why there are large facilities like China Lake and Air Force Test Facility):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPTnmZ_HPAs
Thanks for the update Tom
Thanks for the update. I really wonder if Gerasimov wont turn against Putin or if Putin wont try to preemptively punish or sideline Gerasimov and Shoigu. The moves of accusing their deputies of corruption seems like a clear signal at least that Gerasimov is going to get a side ways "promotion" as well. Reminds me of the sidways promotions Dictator Obote made in Uganda in the 60s to early 70s which led to his first coup by Idi Amin. Then when Nyerere returned him, Kayiira and M7's rebel activities forced him into another sideways promotions which led to his second coup. Similarly this makes me think Gerasimov still has a lot of influence within the Genstaff and possibly has a large loyalty pyramid(but I dont know if this is true). There were also rumours that Shoigu sent soldiers of a Special Forces Military Unit to protect his deputy Timur Ivanov from arrest by the FSB for sometime. So the arrest was delayed by this. Dont know how true this but it makes sense to me at least(https://x.com/Nachoville01/status/1793991318168805794).
I also wonder what your thoughts are about the arrest of Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov. Seems a serious shake up of the Genstab is in the offing and hopefully it will backfire on Putin internally.
Also why are the Russians moving their S-400 systems so close to the front?