Hello everybody! While having my usual cup of cappuccino and a smoke, early this morning, caught myself reading some of the Ukrainian social media: always find it fascinating (and ironic, too) that Ukrainians seem still to have the time, the patience, and the presence of mind to care about ‘the West’. Well, ladies and gentlemen: don’t worry, we’re going to be fine, here in the West. You see: people here are rather concerned about their debts, or where to spend their summer vacation this year, than about you in Ukraine.
>>Haven’t seen reports on how many of Russian missiles got through - yet.
ZSU and all the Ukrainian media reports that 29 missiles were launched with 18 destroyed. There were arrivals allegedly in an airbase near Lviv and some POL bases of Neftegas.
In regards to this morning’s attack. There were about ten explosions, and appears to have been at least a few direct hits, near Stryi (a small town an hour south of Lviv city). This was followed a few hours later but a kinzhal attack on the same town. The timing of cruise missiles, followed hours later by Kinzhals is unusual. There are rumors they hit gas distribution center and/or airfield. The airfield theory seems to be related to the idea that f16s were at the airfield and I find this unlikely, but I suppose you never know.
Question on artillery supply. Others have claimed that the initiative of buying shells from outside the EU/US and getting it to Ukraine is helping. Any comment on that?
Tom, most of the hydrogen is produced at sites near refineries, as it is needed to remove the sulphur from the oil. It had little other use before the “green hydrogen” multi-billion scheme started and even now it has little other than to siphon off billions of euros/dollars from taxpayers to well-connected companies. Anyway, i doubt that explosives production facilities have their own hydrogen facilities. But the limited damagje by the UAV (unless they target exactly the hydrogen production site) won’t deter hydrogen production. As for ammonia, the facilities producing it are also large and can be easily targeted by UAVs. From time to time, GUR/ZSU also target chemical facilities. Anyway, the problem is that of scale. If ZSU/GUR can fly only 6-8 drones a night,obviously attacking an airbase wouldn’t cause much damage if we assume that around 50% don’t make it to final target. If Ukraine can afford more than 20 drones daily, then they should try to limit the usage of these ABs
There was an article in Medium the other day on how Russia is buying satellite images of Ukraine from western companies and using them for targeting. Unfortunately I can’t find the link now. Basically it showed a connection between anonymous purchases of satellite images of locations in Ukraine and Russian strikes at those locations shortly after. Do you know anything about this?
I wouldn’t be so sure on no Ukraine aid passing through the US House before December. Mike Johnson just had a motion to vacate thrown at him despite everything he’s done to placate the extreme right. He can only survive if the Democrats save him. And the Dems will only do it if he brings the Ukraine aid bill to the floor. So I’m much more hopeful than I was a week ago
I'm probably going to get banned by Tom after saying that. But how much of a real asshole you Europeans and Americans are. You will soon be hated in Ukraine as much as Russians.
And one additional comment on these refineries strikes after I read also Stefan’s (from Kyiv Post) commentary. We have already 10-15 refineries hit, so we can assess the damage - the only damage to Russia has been the loss of gasoline exports revenue since the ban. In the grand total of Russian exports a small change. We can see that some wholesale prices have increased (not the retail), and I haven’t heard of any region or district actually experiencing any kind of fuel shortage. The estimated(by UK Defense, Stefan Korshiak, others) hit to refining capacity is at best low teens while Russia even before the war had lots of spare and uneconomical capacity (similar to the Ukrainian electricity production). Some of the largest refineries in Russia are outside the drones range. So this is going to be a very long campaign. It just lacks scale, or more precisely - drone production scale. I guess Ukraine needs to fly at least 50 drones a night to be able to change the Russian economic landscape.
As far as US politics goes, you need better sources.
Expect more Ukraine aid to pass in April, though probably set up as a loan. This banal game the partisans are playing is all about the primary cycle, which is almost over now.
As soon as the GOP doesn't have to worry about a bunch of the crazies winning then losing in fall, everything will revert to the mean. The few competitive House districts left will turn on independent voters who still generally back Ukraine. That's what both sides are playing for.
Once Johnson survives the wingnuts' next tantrum with the support of moderate Dems, he'll have the room he needs to pull the party towards the center while obstructing Biden on border stuff. In fact, don't be surprised if come summer Trump is all of a sudden talking about how he'll send Ukraine thousands of tanks and fighter jets if Putin doesn't back down.
Biden will likely try the same ploy. He's already sending every signal that it's time for Ukraine to negotiate. Yes, the administration absolutely asked Ukraine to stop the refinery attacks, but in a way that they could force Ukraine to deny it. American lawyers pull this trick with juries all the time - they'll say something to the jury or a witness they know full well is against the rules, then withdraw it and apologize when the judge smacks them down.
This is how Americans operate. It's also why you can never convict powerful people of anything. They can always claim their memory is bad, or a subordinate misunderstood instructions. Convictions are for the poor or very stupid.
The "west" is fucked because it's eating itself, just like russia. All it has are these pathetic insider games. This round of aid will be the last because partisans apparently want some variety of civil war. They just need the other side to start it first. A married couple too codependent to just get an effing divorce.
Any info on damaging further two Russian landing ships?
Thanks Tom,
>>Haven’t seen reports on how many of Russian missiles got through - yet.
ZSU and all the Ukrainian media reports that 29 missiles were launched with 18 destroyed. There were arrivals allegedly in an airbase near Lviv and some POL bases of Neftegas.
In regards to this morning’s attack. There were about ten explosions, and appears to have been at least a few direct hits, near Stryi (a small town an hour south of Lviv city). This was followed a few hours later but a kinzhal attack on the same town. The timing of cruise missiles, followed hours later by Kinzhals is unusual. There are rumors they hit gas distribution center and/or airfield. The airfield theory seems to be related to the idea that f16s were at the airfield and I find this unlikely, but I suppose you never know.
Question on artillery supply. Others have claimed that the initiative of buying shells from outside the EU/US and getting it to Ukraine is helping. Any comment on that?
Tom, most of the hydrogen is produced at sites near refineries, as it is needed to remove the sulphur from the oil. It had little other use before the “green hydrogen” multi-billion scheme started and even now it has little other than to siphon off billions of euros/dollars from taxpayers to well-connected companies. Anyway, i doubt that explosives production facilities have their own hydrogen facilities. But the limited damagje by the UAV (unless they target exactly the hydrogen production site) won’t deter hydrogen production. As for ammonia, the facilities producing it are also large and can be easily targeted by UAVs. From time to time, GUR/ZSU also target chemical facilities. Anyway, the problem is that of scale. If ZSU/GUR can fly only 6-8 drones a night,obviously attacking an airbase wouldn’t cause much damage if we assume that around 50% don’t make it to final target. If Ukraine can afford more than 20 drones daily, then they should try to limit the usage of these ABs
Btw, as usual thanks for the update. Forgot my manners.
There was an article in Medium the other day on how Russia is buying satellite images of Ukraine from western companies and using them for targeting. Unfortunately I can’t find the link now. Basically it showed a connection between anonymous purchases of satellite images of locations in Ukraine and Russian strikes at those locations shortly after. Do you know anything about this?
I wouldn’t be so sure on no Ukraine aid passing through the US House before December. Mike Johnson just had a motion to vacate thrown at him despite everything he’s done to placate the extreme right. He can only survive if the Democrats save him. And the Dems will only do it if he brings the Ukraine aid bill to the floor. So I’m much more hopeful than I was a week ago
I'm probably going to get banned by Tom after saying that. But how much of a real asshole you Europeans and Americans are. You will soon be hated in Ukraine as much as Russians.
Thanks for this report Tom will be await another report
And one additional comment on these refineries strikes after I read also Stefan’s (from Kyiv Post) commentary. We have already 10-15 refineries hit, so we can assess the damage - the only damage to Russia has been the loss of gasoline exports revenue since the ban. In the grand total of Russian exports a small change. We can see that some wholesale prices have increased (not the retail), and I haven’t heard of any region or district actually experiencing any kind of fuel shortage. The estimated(by UK Defense, Stefan Korshiak, others) hit to refining capacity is at best low teens while Russia even before the war had lots of spare and uneconomical capacity (similar to the Ukrainian electricity production). Some of the largest refineries in Russia are outside the drones range. So this is going to be a very long campaign. It just lacks scale, or more precisely - drone production scale. I guess Ukraine needs to fly at least 50 drones a night to be able to change the Russian economic landscape.
Thanks for the update!!
As far as US politics goes, you need better sources.
Expect more Ukraine aid to pass in April, though probably set up as a loan. This banal game the partisans are playing is all about the primary cycle, which is almost over now.
As soon as the GOP doesn't have to worry about a bunch of the crazies winning then losing in fall, everything will revert to the mean. The few competitive House districts left will turn on independent voters who still generally back Ukraine. That's what both sides are playing for.
Once Johnson survives the wingnuts' next tantrum with the support of moderate Dems, he'll have the room he needs to pull the party towards the center while obstructing Biden on border stuff. In fact, don't be surprised if come summer Trump is all of a sudden talking about how he'll send Ukraine thousands of tanks and fighter jets if Putin doesn't back down.
Biden will likely try the same ploy. He's already sending every signal that it's time for Ukraine to negotiate. Yes, the administration absolutely asked Ukraine to stop the refinery attacks, but in a way that they could force Ukraine to deny it. American lawyers pull this trick with juries all the time - they'll say something to the jury or a witness they know full well is against the rules, then withdraw it and apologize when the judge smacks them down.
This is how Americans operate. It's also why you can never convict powerful people of anything. They can always claim their memory is bad, or a subordinate misunderstood instructions. Convictions are for the poor or very stupid.
The "west" is fucked because it's eating itself, just like russia. All it has are these pathetic insider games. This round of aid will be the last because partisans apparently want some variety of civil war. They just need the other side to start it first. A married couple too codependent to just get an effing divorce.
Tom, I had a question which is not related to your recent updates.
I understood that the nuclear weapons were needing a « tinder » ( made out of tritium if I remember correctly ) which needs to be regularly renewed.
I may be wrong again but in my memory, the budget allocated by the pentagon to this regular refurbishment is massive.
And presumably the potential costs for the Russians would be even higher as they have more nuclear heads than the US.
But we know that the Russian defense budget is much smaller than the Us one and seemingly too short to allow the nuclear weapons refurbishment.
Would it be possible that the Russian Nuclear heads are largely not operational ?
Many thanks for the update! Looking for all your work, that cappuccino is really invigorous!