Hmm, it’s strange: the aircraft damage claim is done by the Russians themselves. They usually never admit and in this case neither ZSU claimed anything nor any evidence was provided. Why did the Russians admit to these losses!? Can the claim be trusted …
>>Haven’t seen reports on how many of Russian missiles got through - yet.
ZSU and all the Ukrainian media reports that 29 missiles were launched with 18 destroyed. There were arrivals allegedly in an airbase near Lviv and some POL bases of Neftegas.
In regards to this morning’s attack. There were about ten explosions, and appears to have been at least a few direct hits, near Stryi (a small town an hour south of Lviv city). This was followed a few hours later but a kinzhal attack on the same town. The timing of cruise missiles, followed hours later by Kinzhals is unusual. There are rumors they hit gas distribution center and/or airfield. The airfield theory seems to be related to the idea that f16s were at the airfield and I find this unlikely, but I suppose you never know.
At least one thing is 10000& sure: there are no, no, and no F-16s in Ukraine.
Actually, just a few days ago, 6 of Dutch F-16AMs have been sent to Romania, so the PSU pilots and ground crews there can start training on them.
Don't worry: the Keystone Cops are going to announce their arrival by claiming one or another as shot down... the same way they did with Leopards, and M1s and so many other things.
I should add that I saw other reports saying that there was infrastructure being built in stryi to support the f16s when they arrive (dubious source id say). So I guess the claim is Russia was targeting an airfield that could host f16s in future. The airfield in stryi was a major airfield in soviet times but was mothballed quite some time ago.
I spend quite a lot of time in stryi and have seen nothing to signal that they’re working on the airfield. Today im In kyiv; we had at least one big bang at around 5am. In terms of heavy bombing, this was a very light attack on kyiv and an unprecedented attack in Lviv oblast.
Question on artillery supply. Others have claimed that the initiative of buying shells from outside the EU/US and getting it to Ukraine is helping. Any comment on that?
Tom, most of the hydrogen is produced at sites near refineries, as it is needed to remove the sulphur from the oil. It had little other use before the “green hydrogen” multi-billion scheme started and even now it has little other than to siphon off billions of euros/dollars from taxpayers to well-connected companies. Anyway, i doubt that explosives production facilities have their own hydrogen facilities. But the limited damagje by the UAV (unless they target exactly the hydrogen production site) won’t deter hydrogen production. As for ammonia, the facilities producing it are also large and can be easily targeted by UAVs. From time to time, GUR/ZSU also target chemical facilities. Anyway, the problem is that of scale. If ZSU/GUR can fly only 6-8 drones a night,obviously attacking an airbase wouldn’t cause much damage if we assume that around 50% don’t make it to final target. If Ukraine can afford more than 20 drones daily, then they should try to limit the usage of these ABs
There was an article in Medium the other day on how Russia is buying satellite images of Ukraine from western companies and using them for targeting. Unfortunately I can’t find the link now. Basically it showed a connection between anonymous purchases of satellite images of locations in Ukraine and Russian strikes at those locations shortly after. Do you know anything about this?
I wouldn’t be so sure on no Ukraine aid passing through the US House before December. Mike Johnson just had a motion to vacate thrown at him despite everything he’s done to placate the extreme right. He can only survive if the Democrats save him. And the Dems will only do it if he brings the Ukraine aid bill to the floor. So I’m much more hopeful than I was a week ago
I'm probably going to get banned by Tom after saying that. But how much of a real asshole you Europeans and Americans are. You will soon be hated in Ukraine as much as Russians.
Keep in mind that there are assholes in every country. Also keep in mind that the Democrats and over half the Republicans want to provide aid to Ukraine but there is a unique situation when assholes in the US congress are able to make the world worse for everyone. This will not last.
I'm not in a country that is under physical attack (although we are fighting for our democracy). I fully support your frustration and legitimate concerns. It would help if they were more focused on the actual assholes and not generalized. But that will not diminish my personal support for you and your country, not just in your pursuit of political freedom, but also in your fight to protect the lives of your neighbors and loved ones.
Is does not mater what politicians wants, but what they do. Almost whole GOP is hijacked by Trump, only few Republicans are willing to go against him. (And some of these resign from the position). This is a common way how dictators comes to the power.
Please state this evidence. Democrats could've forced the vote in congress months ago. The White House has multiple instruments for sending obsolete stuff, e.g. cluster shells. POTUS signed the lend lease act. It was not used at all and is now expired. They are still sitting on almost $4B. The democrats, including the White House are perfectly fine with this situation.
The military departments determine what is excess. The millions of DPICM rounds are not excess but reserve stockpiles. Lend-Lease means Ukraine has to pay it back when it is struggling to keep its economy afloat now and needs billions in reconstruction aid.
The Pentagon wants $10 billion to replace weapons that were sent to Ukraine. Congress didn't give them that. The DoD recently found that of all the $75 billion in aid that the US sent Ukraine, some contracts came in under the budget allocated for them by a total of $300 million. Instead of using that to replenish US stocks, the White House sent that money to Ukraine in the form of aid.
If Trump never existed we wouldn't be talking about this. But he does exist and it is the unique situation of a narrow Republican majority in the House that allows 42 representatives of the Freedom Caucus to thwart the will of most Americans, as expressed by Democrats and mainstream Republicans. Why? Because working with Democrats on any bi-partisan issue that is in the nation's best interest is considered treasonous by these people. It could get you fired from the Speakership and result in you losing your next primary to someone more extreme than you. There's a reason why so many mainstream Republicans aren't running for re-election, or are just quitting before their term is up, or are considering leaving the party and becoming an Independent.
The reason why more Democrats haven't signed haven't signed the discharge petition is because the bill also includes aid to Israel. In their view, they shouldn't be funding the slaughter of the Gazan civilians. If you have a separate aid bill for just Ukraine you'll get the majority votes you need.
The Republicans in the House said they wanted to fix the border first. So the White House and senators from both parties provided a bi-partisan bill in which the Democrats made many concessions. Just to get the aid to Ukraine. But Trump doesn't want a border deal because he wants to use it as a campaign issue, so that Freedom caucus refused to allow it to come to a vote. They also didn't change their mind on foreign aid. Oh, and the Republican senator from Oklahoma that helped negotiate this deal was censured by his state political party for working with the Democrats.
Because Johnson needed Democratic support to prevent a government shut down, just like McCarthy did, a Freedom caucus member moved to oust him, just like they did to McCarthy. Johnson put the House in recess before it could be acted on. Unlike with McCarthy, though, the Democrats said that they would vote to keep him as Speaker of the House if he brought the bill to aid Ukraine up for a vote. They would vote for a member of the opposition party to retain the Speakership. To aid Ukraine.
I fault Biden and the Congress for not sending aid quickly, like much of the western governments. I fault Biden for not sending weapons, such as ATACMS, that would be extremely useful and for putting limitations on the weapons that were sent. But to say that the White House and Democrats are perfectly fine with this situation is obviously false. It's not the Democrats that are to blame here. It's not even the mainstream Republicans that are to blame. McConnell wanted to send even more aid than has been sent. It's the MAGA Republicans. If they didn't exist, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
And if it passes - what it would mean? I do not believe Mike Johnson has found conscience. Maybe he would just stop trusting Trump winning election, so would try to save his career. And that's the saddest think about GOP politicians - many have not joined Trump because they trust his "ideas", but because they trust and follow power only.
It's true, nothing happens until it happens. If it happens, it means Ukraine receives $60 billion in aid and immediate shipments of air defense missiles and artillery shells.
The internal struggle for democracy in America would continue, but regardless of Johnson's motivation, passing the aid would be a small win in that struggle.
If discharge petition comes to fruition, more likely that it happens at last and not because of Mike Johnson' good will. There are 191 members already have signed it.
When you have kids sleeping in the basement or parents with cancer collecting medications from the classifieds and the whole village for medication. When, God forbid, a friend or relative dies because artillery turns a trench into ruins, and your artillery is silent because there are no shells.
There is a huge human price paid for these cycles of yours, a lot of blood both military and civilian. Why do Russian missiles have so many components from America and Europe? Why does europe buy russian grain?
Yes, by the way Kiev was hit today, watch the video of the children running for cover and hearing the explosions at the same time. When you're having coffee at your place, watch this video, it's very invigorating in the morning.
And yes, you can also come to Ukraine and show on your personal experience. We have the Foreign Legion. I'm 58 years old, they won't take me into the army. I help the army as much as I can, with money and my own labor.
You are of course right when saying that Ukraine pays a hefty price in blood for these cycles of support. And personally I dont understand why we buy Russian products at all here. But be aware that the strukturen in place as a democratic open society also to some degree blocks or hampers the support. When Norway should send military equipment to Ukraine we had to break a sixty year policy on that. Now we have done it we are now openly discussing whatever can be sent. From naval slips to F16 to grenades. And we are increasing our meagre ammunition production, something we hadnt dreamt about two years ago. The politics in a democratic country are glacial. But hopefully moving in the right direction. And I do understand why this is dreadful for Ukraine.
Such mentality is one of many reasons why Ukraine has never been an independent state and it is currently putting a lot of effort to keep it that way. War is politics, which Ukraine is royally screwing up. Zelensky is a fool who thinks he has power and leverage, when he is a political equivalent of a piss stained beggar. Ukraine has no future outside of NATO and the EU. Yet, Zelensky and his hapless clown troupe, do not seem to understand the simple fact, that every member can veto the accession. Zelensky has managed to achieve the unthinkable, he has pissed off most of his allies. Ukrainian diplomacy is conducted the Russian way, insults, chest pumping and "compromise = defeat". Whoever told Zelensky that insulting Poland publically at the UN was a good idea, should be sent with a bayonet on a demining activity in Robotyne. It was the cherry on the diplomatic turd cake, that Zelensky had been molding for months across the West.
Ukraine is uniquely stupid in not having a unity government during wartime. There have been no reforms of the state. No noticeable improvement in fighting corruption. Cannot produce anything at scale. 2 years into the war, can't make more than 1 stugna missile per battalion, per month. No ammunition production, no equipment production, no small arms production, nothing. 2 years into the war, the ZSU is still relying on NGOs, charities and volunteers for even basic stuff, because the Ukrainian state is useless. Every country can mobilise up to 20% of the male working age population. Ukraine has mobilised less than 10% and is holding a year long public debate about it. Why are there supposedly only 43k women in the ZSU? 640k women served in the British armed forces during WW2. The supposedly tough Ukrainian women are surprisingly gutless.
One of many defining characteristics of a civilised country, is that both the state and the armed forces improve and develop during wartime. Ukraine has degenerated in every way, proving that it is not civilised. Has it never occurred to you, that maybe, the West simply does not want to increase its support of a primitive, dysfunctional and, worst of all, confrontational Kyiv government?
You are obviously a bot, as Ukraine produces a lot of weapons of all kinds, just not as many as the intensity of the war requires. Perhaps Ukraine should not have given nuclear missiles to Ukraine, because they signed a document that guarantees Ukraine nothing.
Ukraine produces nothing at scale. No munitions, no weapons, no heavy equipment, no radars. Nothing except a medium scale drone production, and even that, only of certain types. After 2 years, a country of this size, engaged in an existential war, should be easily supplying the ZSU with a constant baseline of 2-3k artillery shells per day, just from the Ukrainian factories.
There has been no noticeable expansion of training capacity either, which is the easiest to achieve. No improvement in the officer corps. A complete disregard for well established military knowledge, that a unit's combat effectiveness plummets after more than 6 months of constant combat or that veteran NCOs/officers are better utilised as training instructors. Ukrainians prefer bardak.
Budapest provided no security guarantees and the decision regarding nuclear warheads was made for Ukraine, not by it. Ukraine has wasted 30 years. Mass treason in 2014 was pathetic, but the fact that it happened again in 2022, is inexcusable.
On the bright side, at least Tesla sales are doing great in the poorest country in Europe, and one with a ruined energy grid.
There is not a single country that is devoid of mistakes, in peacetime or war. You say quite a few thngs that are untrue or out of context yourself.
The attempts to eliminate Ukraine didn't begin in 2022 or 2014, or even the Soviet Union. Imperial Russia, both pre- and post-communism, have tried to destroy any culture that would distinguish themselves. The Tartars are another example of that. Those elements of assimilation did not disappear in 1991. A lot of nations are fighting internal factions that prefer authoritarianism and oligharchies rather than democracies.
It's fine and useful to have public discourse about mistakes. The contempt is not useful. For all its mistakes, it's really quite remarkable what Ukraine has been able to do. Any decent human being would support them.
I certainly get some things wrong from time to time. It would be odd if I didn't. However, I fail to see what is out of context about my previous post. Zelenskyy does not know what decisions he makes? Almost none of what I wrote was about mistakes. Waiting for 3h in a column of patriot launchers and getting destroyed, that is a mistake. Failing to mobilise sufficient number of people is a decision. Failure to set up any meaningful production is a decision. Wasting veteran soldiers is a decision. Not building any fortifications in the summer because oorah we're taking Crimea and now desperately digging in frozen or muddy soil, was a decision. Banishing Zaluzhny to the UK instead of using his knowledge and experience in other important roles, was a decision.
I wouldn't be even half as critical if I saw any evidence of improvement. However, not only there is no improvement, there is degeneration instead. Also, nothing that is happening is new, which is why I constantly remind people of the past. Almost as many British women served in WW2 as there are men in the ZSU serving today. That is utterly disgraceful for a country of almost 40M people. Fun fact, estimated 1.5M women fought for North Vietnam during the war, over 20 years. Ukraine's personnel issues are pathetic and inexcusable by historical standards.
Finally, please don't throw these excuses about imperial Russia and whatnot. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all have around 25% of their population Russian. It used to be even more. There are no oligarchs in most of the CEE countries in the EU, because of the decisions they made in the 90s. Ukraine is where it is, because its people are who they are. "Every nation has the government it deserves."
It's not an excuse thrown around. Russia deported some people and imported other people. These are facts. It happened under Imperial Russia, it happened under the Soviets and it happens in Putin's Russia.
Calling out mistakes is fine. But I don't support your contempt for Ukraine. The mistakes haven't ended, but things are changing. That is also a fact.
I doubt you will get banned for that. But its not my blog. The problem is that its easier for assholes to destroy attempts of supporting then it is actually do the supporting. And there are assholes everywhere.
And one additional comment on these refineries strikes after I read also Stefan’s (from Kyiv Post) commentary. We have already 10-15 refineries hit, so we can assess the damage - the only damage to Russia has been the loss of gasoline exports revenue since the ban. In the grand total of Russian exports a small change. We can see that some wholesale prices have increased (not the retail), and I haven’t heard of any region or district actually experiencing any kind of fuel shortage. The estimated(by UK Defense, Stefan Korshiak, others) hit to refining capacity is at best low teens while Russia even before the war had lots of spare and uneconomical capacity (similar to the Ukrainian electricity production). Some of the largest refineries in Russia are outside the drones range. So this is going to be a very long campaign. It just lacks scale, or more precisely - drone production scale. I guess Ukraine needs to fly at least 50 drones a night to be able to change the Russian economic landscape.
sAnCtIoNs Do NoT wOrK strikes again. Most of the Russian refining capacity is in Europe not Asia. The capacity has dropped by at least 20% by now. The army will always have preferential access to fuel regardless of where it comes from. Keep the campaign going.
Checking the list of refineries from the mentioned Twitter thread, it seems that around 35% of their refining capacity are our of potential reach of Ukrainian UAVs (at Ural and eastwards).
As far as US politics goes, you need better sources.
Expect more Ukraine aid to pass in April, though probably set up as a loan. This banal game the partisans are playing is all about the primary cycle, which is almost over now.
As soon as the GOP doesn't have to worry about a bunch of the crazies winning then losing in fall, everything will revert to the mean. The few competitive House districts left will turn on independent voters who still generally back Ukraine. That's what both sides are playing for.
Once Johnson survives the wingnuts' next tantrum with the support of moderate Dems, he'll have the room he needs to pull the party towards the center while obstructing Biden on border stuff. In fact, don't be surprised if come summer Trump is all of a sudden talking about how he'll send Ukraine thousands of tanks and fighter jets if Putin doesn't back down.
Biden will likely try the same ploy. He's already sending every signal that it's time for Ukraine to negotiate. Yes, the administration absolutely asked Ukraine to stop the refinery attacks, but in a way that they could force Ukraine to deny it. American lawyers pull this trick with juries all the time - they'll say something to the jury or a witness they know full well is against the rules, then withdraw it and apologize when the judge smacks them down.
This is how Americans operate. It's also why you can never convict powerful people of anything. They can always claim their memory is bad, or a subordinate misunderstood instructions. Convictions are for the poor or very stupid.
The "west" is fucked because it's eating itself, just like russia. All it has are these pathetic insider games. This round of aid will be the last because partisans apparently want some variety of civil war. They just need the other side to start it first. A married couple too codependent to just get an effing divorce.
Any info on damaging further two Russian landing ships?
And about demaged/destroyed Su-27?
Have added an 'update' to the text, now: 1 Su-27 destroyed, 2 Su-27s damaged.
Have heard about 'two amphibious warfare ships' damaged or hit... but nothing else, yet.
Hmm, it’s strange: the aircraft damage claim is done by the Russians themselves. They usually never admit and in this case neither ZSU claimed anything nor any evidence was provided. Why did the Russians admit to these losses!? Can the claim be trusted …
Thanks Tom,
>>Haven’t seen reports on how many of Russian missiles got through - yet.
ZSU and all the Ukrainian media reports that 29 missiles were launched with 18 destroyed. There were arrivals allegedly in an airbase near Lviv and some POL bases of Neftegas.
Yes, and some Kinzhals after the first strike
In regards to this morning’s attack. There were about ten explosions, and appears to have been at least a few direct hits, near Stryi (a small town an hour south of Lviv city). This was followed a few hours later but a kinzhal attack on the same town. The timing of cruise missiles, followed hours later by Kinzhals is unusual. There are rumors they hit gas distribution center and/or airfield. The airfield theory seems to be related to the idea that f16s were at the airfield and I find this unlikely, but I suppose you never know.
Thanks.
At least one thing is 10000& sure: there are no, no, and no F-16s in Ukraine.
Actually, just a few days ago, 6 of Dutch F-16AMs have been sent to Romania, so the PSU pilots and ground crews there can start training on them.
Don't worry: the Keystone Cops are going to announce their arrival by claiming one or another as shot down... the same way they did with Leopards, and M1s and so many other things.
I should add that I saw other reports saying that there was infrastructure being built in stryi to support the f16s when they arrive (dubious source id say). So I guess the claim is Russia was targeting an airfield that could host f16s in future. The airfield in stryi was a major airfield in soviet times but was mothballed quite some time ago.
I spend quite a lot of time in stryi and have seen nothing to signal that they’re working on the airfield. Today im In kyiv; we had at least one big bang at around 5am. In terms of heavy bombing, this was a very light attack on kyiv and an unprecedented attack in Lviv oblast.
Question on artillery supply. Others have claimed that the initiative of buying shells from outside the EU/US and getting it to Ukraine is helping. Any comment on that?
It is helping - in the future.
AFAIK, the shells in question are unlikely to reach Ukraine before June.
Do you trust EU commitments to produce 1.5 mil shells in 2024 and 2.5 mil in 2025?
As should be obvious: not the least.
Thanks.
Tom, most of the hydrogen is produced at sites near refineries, as it is needed to remove the sulphur from the oil. It had little other use before the “green hydrogen” multi-billion scheme started and even now it has little other than to siphon off billions of euros/dollars from taxpayers to well-connected companies. Anyway, i doubt that explosives production facilities have their own hydrogen facilities. But the limited damagje by the UAV (unless they target exactly the hydrogen production site) won’t deter hydrogen production. As for ammonia, the facilities producing it are also large and can be easily targeted by UAVs. From time to time, GUR/ZSU also target chemical facilities. Anyway, the problem is that of scale. If ZSU/GUR can fly only 6-8 drones a night,obviously attacking an airbase wouldn’t cause much damage if we assume that around 50% don’t make it to final target. If Ukraine can afford more than 20 drones daily, then they should try to limit the usage of these ABs
Btw, as usual thanks for the update. Forgot my manners.
There was an article in Medium the other day on how Russia is buying satellite images of Ukraine from western companies and using them for targeting. Unfortunately I can’t find the link now. Basically it showed a connection between anonymous purchases of satellite images of locations in Ukraine and Russian strikes at those locations shortly after. Do you know anything about this?
Here’s a related news article I found online: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russia-may-have-bought-satellite-images-of-ukraines-objects-from-us-companies-budanov/ar-BB1kicWJ
Here is the original Atlantic article. Apparently reading through msn.com gets around the paywall. https://www.msn.com/en-ph/news/world/buying-satellite-imagery-of-ukraine-is-dangerously-easy/ar-BB1k5906
Yup. And nope: nothing more but what's mentioned in that article.
I wouldn’t be so sure on no Ukraine aid passing through the US House before December. Mike Johnson just had a motion to vacate thrown at him despite everything he’s done to placate the extreme right. He can only survive if the Democrats save him. And the Dems will only do it if he brings the Ukraine aid bill to the floor. So I’m much more hopeful than I was a week ago
I guess that being saved by Democrats won't help much Speaker Johnson when election time comes again...
Meh. I don’t think Johnson needs to worry about being reelected.
I agree with you. The Democrats have indicated they would support him for aid to Ukraine and humanitarian aid to Gaza.
I'm probably going to get banned by Tom after saying that. But how much of a real asshole you Europeans and Americans are. You will soon be hated in Ukraine as much as Russians.
Keep in mind that there are assholes in every country. Also keep in mind that the Democrats and over half the Republicans want to provide aid to Ukraine but there is a unique situation when assholes in the US congress are able to make the world worse for everyone. This will not last.
I'm not in a country that is under physical attack (although we are fighting for our democracy). I fully support your frustration and legitimate concerns. It would help if they were more focused on the actual assholes and not generalized. But that will not diminish my personal support for you and your country, not just in your pursuit of political freedom, but also in your fight to protect the lives of your neighbors and loved ones.
Is does not mater what politicians wants, but what they do. Almost whole GOP is hijacked by Trump, only few Republicans are willing to go against him. (And some of these resign from the position). This is a common way how dictators comes to the power.
It should be clear by now, that the White House does not want to provide the support either.
The evidence indicates your view is entirely incorrect.
Please state this evidence. Democrats could've forced the vote in congress months ago. The White House has multiple instruments for sending obsolete stuff, e.g. cluster shells. POTUS signed the lend lease act. It was not used at all and is now expired. They are still sitting on almost $4B. The democrats, including the White House are perfectly fine with this situation.
The military departments determine what is excess. The millions of DPICM rounds are not excess but reserve stockpiles. Lend-Lease means Ukraine has to pay it back when it is struggling to keep its economy afloat now and needs billions in reconstruction aid.
The Pentagon wants $10 billion to replace weapons that were sent to Ukraine. Congress didn't give them that. The DoD recently found that of all the $75 billion in aid that the US sent Ukraine, some contracts came in under the budget allocated for them by a total of $300 million. Instead of using that to replenish US stocks, the White House sent that money to Ukraine in the form of aid.
If Trump never existed we wouldn't be talking about this. But he does exist and it is the unique situation of a narrow Republican majority in the House that allows 42 representatives of the Freedom Caucus to thwart the will of most Americans, as expressed by Democrats and mainstream Republicans. Why? Because working with Democrats on any bi-partisan issue that is in the nation's best interest is considered treasonous by these people. It could get you fired from the Speakership and result in you losing your next primary to someone more extreme than you. There's a reason why so many mainstream Republicans aren't running for re-election, or are just quitting before their term is up, or are considering leaving the party and becoming an Independent.
The reason why more Democrats haven't signed haven't signed the discharge petition is because the bill also includes aid to Israel. In their view, they shouldn't be funding the slaughter of the Gazan civilians. If you have a separate aid bill for just Ukraine you'll get the majority votes you need.
The Republicans in the House said they wanted to fix the border first. So the White House and senators from both parties provided a bi-partisan bill in which the Democrats made many concessions. Just to get the aid to Ukraine. But Trump doesn't want a border deal because he wants to use it as a campaign issue, so that Freedom caucus refused to allow it to come to a vote. They also didn't change their mind on foreign aid. Oh, and the Republican senator from Oklahoma that helped negotiate this deal was censured by his state political party for working with the Democrats.
Because Johnson needed Democratic support to prevent a government shut down, just like McCarthy did, a Freedom caucus member moved to oust him, just like they did to McCarthy. Johnson put the House in recess before it could be acted on. Unlike with McCarthy, though, the Democrats said that they would vote to keep him as Speaker of the House if he brought the bill to aid Ukraine up for a vote. They would vote for a member of the opposition party to retain the Speakership. To aid Ukraine.
I fault Biden and the Congress for not sending aid quickly, like much of the western governments. I fault Biden for not sending weapons, such as ATACMS, that would be extremely useful and for putting limitations on the weapons that were sent. But to say that the White House and Democrats are perfectly fine with this situation is obviously false. It's not the Democrats that are to blame here. It's not even the mainstream Republicans that are to blame. McConnell wanted to send even more aid than has been sent. It's the MAGA Republicans. If they didn't exist, we wouldn't be having this conversation.
This is true, but there are indications that the Ukrainian aid bill has a chance to pass when the House returns from recess.
I won't trust it until it passes.
And if it passes - what it would mean? I do not believe Mike Johnson has found conscience. Maybe he would just stop trusting Trump winning election, so would try to save his career. And that's the saddest think about GOP politicians - many have not joined Trump because they trust his "ideas", but because they trust and follow power only.
It's true, nothing happens until it happens. If it happens, it means Ukraine receives $60 billion in aid and immediate shipments of air defense missiles and artillery shells.
The internal struggle for democracy in America would continue, but regardless of Johnson's motivation, passing the aid would be a small win in that struggle.
If discharge petition comes to fruition, more likely that it happens at last and not because of Mike Johnson' good will. There are 191 members already have signed it.
No europeans or americans are hated in Ukraine. It's only ruzz pigs who hates them.
We are working as fast as our political system is capable of. And i know it is slow. https://www.nrk.no/innlandet/pa-vapenbesok-hos-nammo_-_-hvis-det-ikke-er-nok-ammunisjon_-vil-ukraina-tape-krigen-1.16814818
You probably need to translate this....
Come down and speak for yourself! There are good ones and there are bad ones, no need to oversimplify.
The help comes in waves or cycles. We are in a low area at the moment.
PS If you want to help then go to the army instead of whinging here..
When you have kids sleeping in the basement or parents with cancer collecting medications from the classifieds and the whole village for medication. When, God forbid, a friend or relative dies because artillery turns a trench into ruins, and your artillery is silent because there are no shells.
There is a huge human price paid for these cycles of yours, a lot of blood both military and civilian. Why do Russian missiles have so many components from America and Europe? Why does europe buy russian grain?
Yes, by the way Kiev was hit today, watch the video of the children running for cover and hearing the explosions at the same time. When you're having coffee at your place, watch this video, it's very invigorating in the morning.
Here's a video of how the shells are mined: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmXVCoj5xjM&ab_channel=O%21Nebylovych
And yes, you can also come to Ukraine and show on your personal experience. We have the Foreign Legion. I'm 58 years old, they won't take me into the army. I help the army as much as I can, with money and my own labor.
You are of course right when saying that Ukraine pays a hefty price in blood for these cycles of support. And personally I dont understand why we buy Russian products at all here. But be aware that the strukturen in place as a democratic open society also to some degree blocks or hampers the support. When Norway should send military equipment to Ukraine we had to break a sixty year policy on that. Now we have done it we are now openly discussing whatever can be sent. From naval slips to F16 to grenades. And we are increasing our meagre ammunition production, something we hadnt dreamt about two years ago. The politics in a democratic country are glacial. But hopefully moving in the right direction. And I do understand why this is dreadful for Ukraine.
There is no such city like Kiev. Man, are you sure you are from Ukraine?
What?
We already are, don't worry (and nope, I'm not surprised).
Such mentality is one of many reasons why Ukraine has never been an independent state and it is currently putting a lot of effort to keep it that way. War is politics, which Ukraine is royally screwing up. Zelensky is a fool who thinks he has power and leverage, when he is a political equivalent of a piss stained beggar. Ukraine has no future outside of NATO and the EU. Yet, Zelensky and his hapless clown troupe, do not seem to understand the simple fact, that every member can veto the accession. Zelensky has managed to achieve the unthinkable, he has pissed off most of his allies. Ukrainian diplomacy is conducted the Russian way, insults, chest pumping and "compromise = defeat". Whoever told Zelensky that insulting Poland publically at the UN was a good idea, should be sent with a bayonet on a demining activity in Robotyne. It was the cherry on the diplomatic turd cake, that Zelensky had been molding for months across the West.
Ukraine is uniquely stupid in not having a unity government during wartime. There have been no reforms of the state. No noticeable improvement in fighting corruption. Cannot produce anything at scale. 2 years into the war, can't make more than 1 stugna missile per battalion, per month. No ammunition production, no equipment production, no small arms production, nothing. 2 years into the war, the ZSU is still relying on NGOs, charities and volunteers for even basic stuff, because the Ukrainian state is useless. Every country can mobilise up to 20% of the male working age population. Ukraine has mobilised less than 10% and is holding a year long public debate about it. Why are there supposedly only 43k women in the ZSU? 640k women served in the British armed forces during WW2. The supposedly tough Ukrainian women are surprisingly gutless.
One of many defining characteristics of a civilised country, is that both the state and the armed forces improve and develop during wartime. Ukraine has degenerated in every way, proving that it is not civilised. Has it never occurred to you, that maybe, the West simply does not want to increase its support of a primitive, dysfunctional and, worst of all, confrontational Kyiv government?
You are obviously a bot, as Ukraine produces a lot of weapons of all kinds, just not as many as the intensity of the war requires. Perhaps Ukraine should not have given nuclear missiles to Ukraine, because they signed a document that guarantees Ukraine nothing.
Ukraine produces nothing at scale. No munitions, no weapons, no heavy equipment, no radars. Nothing except a medium scale drone production, and even that, only of certain types. After 2 years, a country of this size, engaged in an existential war, should be easily supplying the ZSU with a constant baseline of 2-3k artillery shells per day, just from the Ukrainian factories.
There has been no noticeable expansion of training capacity either, which is the easiest to achieve. No improvement in the officer corps. A complete disregard for well established military knowledge, that a unit's combat effectiveness plummets after more than 6 months of constant combat or that veteran NCOs/officers are better utilised as training instructors. Ukrainians prefer bardak.
Budapest provided no security guarantees and the decision regarding nuclear warheads was made for Ukraine, not by it. Ukraine has wasted 30 years. Mass treason in 2014 was pathetic, but the fact that it happened again in 2022, is inexcusable.
On the bright side, at least Tesla sales are doing great in the poorest country in Europe, and one with a ruined energy grid.
There is not a single country that is devoid of mistakes, in peacetime or war. You say quite a few thngs that are untrue or out of context yourself.
The attempts to eliminate Ukraine didn't begin in 2022 or 2014, or even the Soviet Union. Imperial Russia, both pre- and post-communism, have tried to destroy any culture that would distinguish themselves. The Tartars are another example of that. Those elements of assimilation did not disappear in 1991. A lot of nations are fighting internal factions that prefer authoritarianism and oligharchies rather than democracies.
It's fine and useful to have public discourse about mistakes. The contempt is not useful. For all its mistakes, it's really quite remarkable what Ukraine has been able to do. Any decent human being would support them.
I certainly get some things wrong from time to time. It would be odd if I didn't. However, I fail to see what is out of context about my previous post. Zelenskyy does not know what decisions he makes? Almost none of what I wrote was about mistakes. Waiting for 3h in a column of patriot launchers and getting destroyed, that is a mistake. Failing to mobilise sufficient number of people is a decision. Failure to set up any meaningful production is a decision. Wasting veteran soldiers is a decision. Not building any fortifications in the summer because oorah we're taking Crimea and now desperately digging in frozen or muddy soil, was a decision. Banishing Zaluzhny to the UK instead of using his knowledge and experience in other important roles, was a decision.
I wouldn't be even half as critical if I saw any evidence of improvement. However, not only there is no improvement, there is degeneration instead. Also, nothing that is happening is new, which is why I constantly remind people of the past. Almost as many British women served in WW2 as there are men in the ZSU serving today. That is utterly disgraceful for a country of almost 40M people. Fun fact, estimated 1.5M women fought for North Vietnam during the war, over 20 years. Ukraine's personnel issues are pathetic and inexcusable by historical standards.
Finally, please don't throw these excuses about imperial Russia and whatnot. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, all have around 25% of their population Russian. It used to be even more. There are no oligarchs in most of the CEE countries in the EU, because of the decisions they made in the 90s. Ukraine is where it is, because its people are who they are. "Every nation has the government it deserves."
It's not an excuse thrown around. Russia deported some people and imported other people. These are facts. It happened under Imperial Russia, it happened under the Soviets and it happens in Putin's Russia.
Calling out mistakes is fine. But I don't support your contempt for Ukraine. The mistakes haven't ended, but things are changing. That is also a fact.
I doubt you will get banned for that. But its not my blog. The problem is that its easier for assholes to destroy attempts of supporting then it is actually do the supporting. And there are assholes everywhere.
Thanks for this report Tom will be await another report
And one additional comment on these refineries strikes after I read also Stefan’s (from Kyiv Post) commentary. We have already 10-15 refineries hit, so we can assess the damage - the only damage to Russia has been the loss of gasoline exports revenue since the ban. In the grand total of Russian exports a small change. We can see that some wholesale prices have increased (not the retail), and I haven’t heard of any region or district actually experiencing any kind of fuel shortage. The estimated(by UK Defense, Stefan Korshiak, others) hit to refining capacity is at best low teens while Russia even before the war had lots of spare and uneconomical capacity (similar to the Ukrainian electricity production). Some of the largest refineries in Russia are outside the drones range. So this is going to be a very long campaign. It just lacks scale, or more precisely - drone production scale. I guess Ukraine needs to fly at least 50 drones a night to be able to change the Russian economic landscape.
sAnCtIoNs Do NoT wOrK strikes again. Most of the Russian refining capacity is in Europe not Asia. The capacity has dropped by at least 20% by now. The army will always have preferential access to fuel regardless of where it comes from. Keep the campaign going.
Checking the list of refineries from the mentioned Twitter thread, it seems that around 35% of their refining capacity are our of potential reach of Ukrainian UAVs (at Ural and eastwards).
Add the ones in Tatarstan and Bashkortostan to these beyond Ural
I counted Bashkortostan out, but Tatarstan is to the west from Ural, and just bit further than Syzran.
Update, as of today: some, presumably Ukrainian, UAVs hit Alabuga drone facility area and oil refinery at Nizhnekamsk., in Tatarstan.
Yes, I commented it under the last article of Tom. Obviously ZSU has an expanded-range drone now.
Yesterday it attacked Uralmash. On the other side, Taneco is not to be impacted by a single drone
Thanks for the update!!
As far as US politics goes, you need better sources.
Expect more Ukraine aid to pass in April, though probably set up as a loan. This banal game the partisans are playing is all about the primary cycle, which is almost over now.
As soon as the GOP doesn't have to worry about a bunch of the crazies winning then losing in fall, everything will revert to the mean. The few competitive House districts left will turn on independent voters who still generally back Ukraine. That's what both sides are playing for.
Once Johnson survives the wingnuts' next tantrum with the support of moderate Dems, he'll have the room he needs to pull the party towards the center while obstructing Biden on border stuff. In fact, don't be surprised if come summer Trump is all of a sudden talking about how he'll send Ukraine thousands of tanks and fighter jets if Putin doesn't back down.
Biden will likely try the same ploy. He's already sending every signal that it's time for Ukraine to negotiate. Yes, the administration absolutely asked Ukraine to stop the refinery attacks, but in a way that they could force Ukraine to deny it. American lawyers pull this trick with juries all the time - they'll say something to the jury or a witness they know full well is against the rules, then withdraw it and apologize when the judge smacks them down.
This is how Americans operate. It's also why you can never convict powerful people of anything. They can always claim their memory is bad, or a subordinate misunderstood instructions. Convictions are for the poor or very stupid.
The "west" is fucked because it's eating itself, just like russia. All it has are these pathetic insider games. This round of aid will be the last because partisans apparently want some variety of civil war. They just need the other side to start it first. A married couple too codependent to just get an effing divorce.
To codependent… yes they are, and I dont think none of them really wants to start. But of course wars happen by accident as well.
Tom, I had a question which is not related to your recent updates.
I understood that the nuclear weapons were needing a « tinder » ( made out of tritium if I remember correctly ) which needs to be regularly renewed.
I may be wrong again but in my memory, the budget allocated by the pentagon to this regular refurbishment is massive.
And presumably the potential costs for the Russians would be even higher as they have more nuclear heads than the US.
But we know that the Russian defense budget is much smaller than the Us one and seemingly too short to allow the nuclear weapons refurbishment.
Would it be possible that the Russian Nuclear heads are largely not operational ?
Many thanks for the update! Looking for all your work, that cappuccino is really invigorous!