Good morning everybody! ‘Even if posting additional posts’, actually, the last few days I was ‘away’ from my office – and already looking forward to explain that the thesis along which ‘lots of things happen whenever Tom is away’, is all wrong…. Obviously, it was me who was wrong. And so, this is going to be a longer update….
Oh please: don't tell me about tourist hordes.... as long as it was just the invasions of the Northerners, every summer, one could at least drive the narrow streets of the downtown Vienna. But, since it's the Easterners....
The investigation on why the Russian army was able to invade from Crimea has several political aspects:
1) They need to decide who was responsible for mining and blasting bridges: SBU or ZSU.
2) If they assign the guilt to somebody now, they will not be able to blame or imprison Zaluzhny before the next elections.
3) There were construction works at the border with Crimea right before the invasion. This may lead to politicians or businesses outside of SBU and ZSU. Money is involved.
SBU is National Security - it is not intel, it is counter-intel, counter-insurgency and counter-terror. Blasting bridges and organizing territorial defense could be claimed for "national security". The failed counter-intelligence (Russians knew that there were no mines, and that the bridges would not have been blasted) is surely SBU.
And it is said to be investigated by GBR, not SBU.
The media and the Ukrainian society demands all the time to find guilty persons but in reality Ukrainian people themselves made their choice and neglected the needs of the army. So the President himself is the most guilty person because he did not inform our people about the danger.
Two cowboys ride the prairie. One of them is out of money.
He sees a lump of bullshit. "Hey, Tom, bet a dollar I will eat a piece of this bullshit?" "Agreed!". John eats the bullshit and receives his dollar.
Now Tom wants his dollar back. He sees another bullshit. "John, bet I eat this bullshit for a dollar?" "Agreed". Tom eats the bullshit and gets his dollar back.
They ride on. See another bullshit. "Hey, Tom, what have we done? Both of use ate bullshit and did not get any money!"
1) The bridges to Crimea were not blasted. The remote control for the explosives did not work - it seems that someone cut the wires or messed with controls. There should have been traitors in the army or Russian special forces near the explosives. Blame SBU for allowing the traitors and enemy units on Ukrainian controlled territory. Blame ZSU for not guarding the explosives and not double-testing the equipment. Blame Zaluzhny for not double-checking the readiness of ZSU. Blame Zelensky for trusting the office of head of SBU to his personal friend.
2) The land corridor from Crimea (aside of bridges) was de-mined by some business. Blame SBU for not caring of national security and allowing the business to build something in a critical location. Blame the government for signing the construction plans. Blame Zaluzhny for not calling Zelensky in the night about the de-mining.
3) The ZSU forces near Crimea were too weak and devoid of AD. Blame Zaluzhny. He says he was asking for funds for years. Blame Zelensky. Now the previous president, Poroshenko, joins in blaming Zelensky for using state funds to restore roads instead of the army. Enter the previous head of ZSU. He blames Poroshenko for not funding AD during his rule, claims that the attack from Crimea was deemed improbable, and blames Zaluzhny for removing AD from Kyiv sea (Dnieper power plant water reserve).
4) The Kherson bridges over Dnieper were not blasted. Blame Zaluzhny for the absence of ZSU in Kherson. Blame Zelensky for not allocating funds to contract more soldiers. Blame Kherson's major for fleeing immediately on the Russian invasion. Blame SBU for not comprehending that a major of a critical city is a traitor. Blame Zelensky for assigning such a major. Blame SBU for not blasting the bridges in the absense of ZSU.
If this lands and they judge and imprison or fire Zelensky and Zaluzhny, who will command the army and who will go abroad to ask for more military help?
The guy who made an interview just before his interrogation said that the wires were likely cut with MLRS and mortar fire. It's completely plausible - just an old wired devices without underground tunnel to make it enuring.
The main conclusion that could be made from this interview - it was the 'system failure' rather than one's personal responsibility. Indeed it is always easier to find a scapegoat - from PR perspective...
Imprisoning Zaluzhny is pure fantasy. Doesn't matter who want this, this is simply politically impossible. Just blame him means do massive disservice to anybody's career.
That's why any objective investigation is impossible as well. People at the top positions of the country were responsible for keeping the country ready. They failed. But imprisoning them is politically impossible.
I think it's a bit harsh to say that people at the top didn't prepare the army for the invasion. The amount of reform, restructuring, retraining and overhaul/repair of equipment was staggering since 2015. Ukraine, the 2nd poorest (or thereabouts) country in europe per capita, with a small economy and state budget, of which much was stolen as well, had:
- most tanks in europe, except maybe russia, greece and turkey.
- the most powerful air defence in europe after Russia. That one wasn't even close. There was basically Russia, then Ukraine and then a dark void.
- some sort of usable air force.
- most artillery in europe after Russia
- highest number of fully trained, combat veterans in europe.
The south was a shitshow and most likely some committed treason there. However, to just flatly state that the country was unprepared is extremely unfair.
Sure, but bringing equipment back to life and keeping it running is more expensive during its lifecycle, than the cost of buying it. The war has been going on for nine years now, ammo stores blowing up was standard war sabotage. I just think you're being too harsh. People can only perform as well as the tools they are given. Traitors should be executed though.
While the attack on the HQ of the Russian Black Sea fleet was spectacular, was it worth two Storm Shadows? Even if the top admiral in the region and the head of the Zaporizhiya operations were both killed (as rumored), besides the propaganda effect you only get the risk that someone more competent will replace them.
Russia is a nation of symbols: HQ of the Black Sea Fleet 'atop' of the Sevastopol's skyline is one. ('Untouchable') Generals and Admirals another.
Blowing up symbols of that kind - and then 'in the middle of day', in plain sight - is like 'killing the Gods'.
(In comparison to that, sinking of the missile cruiser Moskva was 'nothing', because it happened well away from public eyes in Russia, and those killed were 'just some anonymous sailors'.)
Yeah, but this is not how Ukraine will win the war. You have been very patient to explain how much effort was done to degrade the air-defenses in Crimea, which enabled strikes on bases and docks, the destruction of Maskva and patient attacks on the naval infrastructure of russia have open “partially” the sea routes and diminished greatly the capabilities of the fleet. And now an attack on building with several retirees inside. Better than nothing but still so many airbases,depots, barracks that could have been destroyed.
This is an Intersting question. I cannot answer, but let me give some of the «cons», not saying they outweigh the costs. First I would argue that throwing headquarters of an enemy into chaos has a military value. Second, I would guess that the headquarters elsewhere (especially on the Crimea) will howl for more and better protection. Generals/Admirals dont want to due, that is for lower level beings. Third, the attack creates fear and frustration in Russia, but I will admit this is the least important argument. Fourth and final, a spectacular success like this hits the Mainstream Media. Yes, both politicans and lots of other people rely on MSM to learn about the war. And while I look elsewhere I do also follow main stream media. And this hits the News. Not fightning around Bakhmut or Robotinye or other places we cannot spell and dont really care about. This? Hits the media, as a success. Military I totally understand the question from ParanoidNow, but hits like this kreps interest, attention and consciousness about the war in the minst of people. It shows that Ukraine can score hits and are doing so. Killing admirals instead of babies. And that is needed. Hence, I think it was worth it, but do I understand the question.
If this continous the way it did the last 1-2 weeks, Ukranians soon don't have to give any shit any more about some grain deals or the absence of them. Russian Black sea fleet simply will have to withdraw completely from Sevastopol.
The only play Russia has left then is sinking civilian ships with their 3 or 4 remaining submarines, guess that will play out well for them (although to be fair, the international response to the Kharkovka dam destruction was absolutely shameful)
That building was worth much more in dollar terms than 2 or 4 storm shadows. Other thing is what other things in terms of human resource, documents, equipment were being kept there or present there are worth much more. The building was still smoking hours after the hit. If it turns out its true they killed several senior officers it will be even worth much more.
It can ,partially, be within the efforts to undermine ally's escalation management policies. As well as strikes on Moscow. It makes justifying decisions to withhold some weapon systems harder with every such strike.
I am following you since a while and like how direct you are.
One question from my side:
If you could make a shopping list in the name of the ZSU and PSU towards its Western allies for the time frame until spring 2024, how would it look like?
Like 30x Gripen, additonal 2-4 patriot system, at least 10 Iris-T.
And which systems would be the most urgent?
Best regards from your neutral neighbooring country,
Re. 'shopping list'....well, ideally, this would look something like this:
- €/US$ 1 billion (if necessary at all: AFAIK, there were offers for as little as US$150 million) for a new (and secure) communications system (foremost one independent from Pudding-fans like Musk),
- €/US$ 2 billion for new electronic warfare systems,
- €/US$ 2 billion for Ukrainian UAV industry,
- €/US$ 1 billion for medical equipment and CASEVAC/MEDEVAC vehicles,
- 50 Rafale F4 or F-35As with 20,000 kits for JDAM/JDAM-ER and suitable warheads
- 15-17 MIM-104 SAM-systems with 2,000 missiles,
- 20 IRIS-T SAM-systems with 2,000 missiles,
- 30 M142 and/or M270s with 20,000 rounds (and production of their ammo in Ukraine),
- either 200 Archer self-propelled 155mm guns, or a production line for them,
- at least 400 MBTs in the class of Leo 2A8/Leclerc XLR/KNDS or K2 (or a production line for them; alternatively, France can send all of its 200 Leclercs to Ukraine right away: it has no use for them),
That's a cool list, i appreciate how you started with 1 or 2 billions to ease the reader in and then moved to anti air that alone would be 25B euros/usd. That list alone is 40B? Sadly, I'm not sure if this much money will be spent on new systems, by all of NATO, in total during this war. That is, unless it lasts for a very long time. The US is currently making tonnes of money out of this war.
Yes, and we both know that what they will actually choose is to spend 200B over 10 years instead. Then they will complain that the war isn't ending and question what the point of spending that money was in the first place.
Thank you for your thorough and detailed analysis. Today Budanov reported that 9 persons of higher Russian fleet command were killed or wounded and about numerous casualties of personnel. The operation was called "Lobster trap". Bearing in mind the successful attack on the HQ at Verkhnesadove it is obvious that the USA now silently approve the extermination of the Russian higher military commanders which was not the case in 2022 when the killing of Gerasimov was planned by SBU. Slava Ukraini!
Somehow, I doubt the USA have the right to 'approve' anything in this war: not that the Americans are not trying to impose themselves as decision-makers (and that at every opportunity), but Ukrainians are running their own business, and having their own targets - whether Americans like that or not.
That said, I'm no 'fan' of 'de-capitating strikes': not only that there's a history of these being entirely futile (while unnecessarily expensive), but they're counterproductive.
Why 'de-capitating' Generals that have proven to be incompetents? Let them continue doing their mistakes 'in peace'...
The strikes at HQs in the center of the city that was constantly declared in the USSR and even more in Russia as "the city of the Russian glory" (although without any possible reasons) is like hitting in the face. It does not kill but frightens and humiliates a lot.
I do not think, there is much tangible result/value of frightening and humiliating the Russians. They appear to be so much of a fatalist type of individuals, that it just has no effect on them. Look at all those soldiers, who rather gets killed than surrendering or pull their own triggers. Guess 20+ years of propaganda has fried their brains to a large degree.
Don’t get me wrong, my initial reaction is also, that it is “good”, that such a HQ is destroyed, but Tom has a valid point.
Let’s assume, the individuals replacing those high ranked killed ones are even more incompetent :-)
Not everybody in Russia is absolutely stupid. The strike that succeeded in destroying the building of the HQ in the center of a highly militarized city in the daytime showed to everybody in Russia the real weakness of the Russian army uncapable to protect "the sacred Crimea". At last "the decision-making center in Ukrainian territory" was hit.
In fact I don't think the Economist knows much about trading strategies. Here is a couple of things they said, from someone with a long memory.
Last time oil prices were around $15 a barrel, they said this was a stable price and oil wouldn't go above $20 again.
Around the turn of the millennium, they ran an article on houses being a terrible investment as they were so overpriced. Better sell your house rather than buy one, they said.
Why the South of Ukraine was not protected, probably because the order was given to leave it. Even if 4-5 brigades were concentrated there, they would not have been able to defend in a clear field without organised fortifications, they would have been simply demolished by Russian aviation (I saw a video of a Ukrainian broken column near Kherson, clearly an air raid) + betrayal of the local SBU.
Another question to the government of Ukraine why for 8 years there were not built fortifications as in Donbass.
One more question, in January they worked on exercises on the Russian offensive from Crimea, then why was not implemented a plan for defence.
(Man how many questions to our government...).
Arestovich said that the Ukrainian government was surprised by the Russian offensive from Belarus, perhaps because of this, combat units from the South were moved to Kiev, as the loss of Kiev is essentially the destruction of Ukraine as a state.
But as it seems to me still the armed forces of Ukraine simply could not protect the whole territory of Ukraine quantitatively, so something had to be sacrificed.
The tragedy of it all is that now we are liberating the South of Ukraine with great difficulty.
Tom, thank you very much for your qualitative analyses of the war in Ukraine and for your sarcasm))))
1.) The intel (GRU and/or SBU) failed to obtain info on the Russian planning and inform correspondingly;
2.) because the intel failed to issue a warning, the ZSU didn't act according to that warning.
3.) The ZSU did mine bridges over the istmus, but did nothing to 'guard' the mined bridges, and even less so to develop blocking defences north of them. The experiences from fighting ever since are, IMHO, clearly confirming a fact that a single Ukrainian mechanised brigade would've been 'perfectly enough' to hold off the Russian onslaught for at least a week, preventing at least the capture of Kherson, perhaps even Melitopol and Tokmak.
4.) Even if the intel was a total failure, there were two ZSU generals, both paid to do 'Point 3'. To prepare themselves (see: 'planning') and their troops (see: 'training') for worst case scenarios. Like one when they would have just one brigade and one incomplete battalion to protect the bridges and the istmus from the onslaught of two Russian combined arms armies.
From what they're stating in different interviews for the media, it's obvious they didn't do anything at all. They were caught unprepared (personally and in regards of the troops under their command) and spent the first few days of the war evacuating their HQs, rather than leading their troops into combat.
Not just bridges from Crimea, it was long known Pudding lusted after a land link to Crimea along the Black Sea coast. They should have been prepared to blow rail/road bridges all along that whole route.
Very shocking and I think you're right. Because in every other front the Ukrainian military performed well except OC south. It was a disaster really and cost the lives of so many fighters in Mariupol. Must have been combination of incompetence and betrayal.
ZSU lost offensive potential? In Pudding's wet dreams, sure.
Lancet strike on MiG-29s: yes, but the LPGM missed the jet and hit the ground under its front party. That's why the Russian video is cut off before it would be obvious that relatively little damage was caused (apparently, the Lancet hit the towing bar, and then sprayed the fuselage with schrapnel: that took about 1 week of repairs).
....hope, the PSU is not going to do another dumb mistake like releasing another video shown two MiG-29s taking off from an air base that's easy to recognise....
Thank you for the update. Congratulations to the Economist fot their prize, seems to be well deserved. Personally I strongly believe they will not rest on their laurels, but try to stay competitive.
In the morning General Tarnavsky reported that VSU succeeded to brake Russian defense line near Verbove. Also according to Ukrainian media in the morning were hit the deposits of military goods in Inkerman near Sevastopol. Exact results of the attack are unknown.
Dear Tom, thank you for your report and your profound sarcasm to keep us all sane in this sea of Propaganda.
However, it is really harsh from you to criticise the poor Wehrschütz from the ORF with concrete evidence and logic. He is reporting from there, alone, because the restores of our dear ORF are needed to report about our last fallen sun god. Additionally, this would undermine the fallen sun gods political decision to base our energy supply solely on Russian gas. This decision was supported by both political parties that will "run" our country after the next election and will so decide if his supervisors can keep their overpaid jobs or not. To add a quote from our second to last fallen sungod from his last election campaign: It is important that the poor Austrian pensioners get their (cheap) oil and gas from Russia, because they earned it.
So the poor guy is neither equipped with what he would need, nor does anybody intend to deliver it to him and a truthfull reporting is not welcomed at home anyway. In conclusion he is supported by the ORF like Ukraine by the West. Thankfully Ukrainians are not that incapable of doing there job.
Nice to see that I made you laugh. But if you think about it, it is rather a catastrophy. There is a full scale war going on where there is plenty to report on and then you hear Wehrschütz also reporting about Serbian politics - wtf
btw, the latest US aid package included Hawks if I’m not mistaken. The first time we heard about them, nothing worked. Probably US has repaired and tested them before giving them twice.
Let’s see if they will provide any help against the Russian gliding bombs.
Claims today that the US will send (not useable by US) cluster munition versions of ATACMS to Ukraine to address GOP concerns about depleting military reserves and wasting money.
A great example of how to spin an undesirable situation into a benefit :)
....my 20 best trading strategies first... :P
If the two can do it, it's not sophisticated enough - to me.
I need something where I'm 'earning billions' - by sheer accident.... :P
Oh please: don't tell me about tourist hordes.... as long as it was just the invasions of the Northerners, every summer, one could at least drive the narrow streets of the downtown Vienna. But, since it's the Easterners....
....and they are multi-seasonal, too.... ;-)
Thank you Tom.
The investigation on why the Russian army was able to invade from Crimea has several political aspects:
1) They need to decide who was responsible for mining and blasting bridges: SBU or ZSU.
2) If they assign the guilt to somebody now, they will not be able to blame or imprison Zaluzhny before the next elections.
3) There were construction works at the border with Crimea right before the invasion. This may lead to politicians or businesses outside of SBU and ZSU. Money is involved.
https://meduza.io/feature/2023/09/22/v-ukraine-bolshe-goda-rassleduyut-delo-o-sdache-yuzhnyh-regionov-strany-ego-nazyvayut-delom-zaluzhnogo
Yeah, 'they need to decide who was responsible'....
Mate,
SBU = intel.
ZSU = planning and operations.
The SBU can influence ZSU's decision-making through the intel it's providing. But, it is NOT commanding the ZSU.
Of course, if SBU's intel is nonsense - for example: because it says there will be no Russian invasion in the south - THEN it's the SBU to blame.
But, in such case, letting the SBU investigate this affair is like letting a murderer investigate his/her own murder.
One way or other other, this is an excellent example for how NOT to run affairs of this kind.
SBU is National Security - it is not intel, it is counter-intel, counter-insurgency and counter-terror. Blasting bridges and organizing territorial defense could be claimed for "national security". The failed counter-intelligence (Russians knew that there were no mines, and that the bridges would not have been blasted) is surely SBU.
And it is said to be investigated by GBR, not SBU.
And if it would be the 'CIA in cooperation with Mossad and al-Qaida': an intelligence service is the wrong tool to investigate this kind of failures.
The media and the Ukrainian society demands all the time to find guilty persons but in reality Ukrainian people themselves made their choice and neglected the needs of the army. So the President himself is the most guilty person because he did not inform our people about the danger.
....neither the first, nor the last politician to mistrust the people he/she's supposed to lead....
This consideration is not fit to indulge Zelensky and the like.
Two cowboys ride the prairie. One of them is out of money.
He sees a lump of bullshit. "Hey, Tom, bet a dollar I will eat a piece of this bullshit?" "Agreed!". John eats the bullshit and receives his dollar.
Now Tom wants his dollar back. He sees another bullshit. "John, bet I eat this bullshit for a dollar?" "Agreed". Tom eats the bullshit and gets his dollar back.
They ride on. See another bullshit. "Hey, Tom, what have we done? Both of use ate bullshit and did not get any money!"
**********************************************************************************
The investigation is going to uncover 3 items:
1) The bridges to Crimea were not blasted. The remote control for the explosives did not work - it seems that someone cut the wires or messed with controls. There should have been traitors in the army or Russian special forces near the explosives. Blame SBU for allowing the traitors and enemy units on Ukrainian controlled territory. Blame ZSU for not guarding the explosives and not double-testing the equipment. Blame Zaluzhny for not double-checking the readiness of ZSU. Blame Zelensky for trusting the office of head of SBU to his personal friend.
2) The land corridor from Crimea (aside of bridges) was de-mined by some business. Blame SBU for not caring of national security and allowing the business to build something in a critical location. Blame the government for signing the construction plans. Blame Zaluzhny for not calling Zelensky in the night about the de-mining.
3) The ZSU forces near Crimea were too weak and devoid of AD. Blame Zaluzhny. He says he was asking for funds for years. Blame Zelensky. Now the previous president, Poroshenko, joins in blaming Zelensky for using state funds to restore roads instead of the army. Enter the previous head of ZSU. He blames Poroshenko for not funding AD during his rule, claims that the attack from Crimea was deemed improbable, and blames Zaluzhny for removing AD from Kyiv sea (Dnieper power plant water reserve).
4) The Kherson bridges over Dnieper were not blasted. Blame Zaluzhny for the absence of ZSU in Kherson. Blame Zelensky for not allocating funds to contract more soldiers. Blame Kherson's major for fleeing immediately on the Russian invasion. Blame SBU for not comprehending that a major of a critical city is a traitor. Blame Zelensky for assigning such a major. Blame SBU for not blasting the bridges in the absense of ZSU.
If this lands and they judge and imprison or fire Zelensky and Zaluzhny, who will command the army and who will go abroad to ask for more military help?
The guy who made an interview just before his interrogation said that the wires were likely cut with MLRS and mortar fire. It's completely plausible - just an old wired devices without underground tunnel to make it enuring.
I accidentally found the interview of Major General Sokolov who was responsible for the South (southern bank of the Dnipro down to Crimea):
https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2023/09/18/7420200/
The main conclusion that could be made from this interview - it was the 'system failure' rather than one's personal responsibility. Indeed it is always easier to find a scapegoat - from PR perspective...
Imprisoning Zaluzhny is pure fantasy. Doesn't matter who want this, this is simply politically impossible. Just blame him means do massive disservice to anybody's career.
That's why any objective investigation is impossible as well. People at the top positions of the country were responsible for keeping the country ready. They failed. But imprisoning them is politically impossible.
I think it's a bit harsh to say that people at the top didn't prepare the army for the invasion. The amount of reform, restructuring, retraining and overhaul/repair of equipment was staggering since 2015. Ukraine, the 2nd poorest (or thereabouts) country in europe per capita, with a small economy and state budget, of which much was stolen as well, had:
- most tanks in europe, except maybe russia, greece and turkey.
- the most powerful air defence in europe after Russia. That one wasn't even close. There was basically Russia, then Ukraine and then a dark void.
- some sort of usable air force.
- most artillery in europe after Russia
- highest number of fully trained, combat veterans in europe.
The south was a shitshow and most likely some committed treason there. However, to just flatly state that the country was unprepared is extremely unfair.
That was mostly the remains of USSR equipment, much of which was sold away. Ammo stores were blasted on nearly yearly basis.
Sure, but bringing equipment back to life and keeping it running is more expensive during its lifecycle, than the cost of buying it. The war has been going on for nine years now, ammo stores blowing up was standard war sabotage. I just think you're being too harsh. People can only perform as well as the tools they are given. Traitors should be executed though.
Maybe not executed, but at least they should be identified.
While the attack on the HQ of the Russian Black Sea fleet was spectacular, was it worth two Storm Shadows? Even if the top admiral in the region and the head of the Zaporizhiya operations were both killed (as rumored), besides the propaganda effect you only get the risk that someone more competent will replace them.
Russia is a nation of symbols: HQ of the Black Sea Fleet 'atop' of the Sevastopol's skyline is one. ('Untouchable') Generals and Admirals another.
Blowing up symbols of that kind - and then 'in the middle of day', in plain sight - is like 'killing the Gods'.
(In comparison to that, sinking of the missile cruiser Moskva was 'nothing', because it happened well away from public eyes in Russia, and those killed were 'just some anonymous sailors'.)
Moreover the losses and real casualties were never reported.
Yeah, but this is not how Ukraine will win the war. You have been very patient to explain how much effort was done to degrade the air-defenses in Crimea, which enabled strikes on bases and docks, the destruction of Maskva and patient attacks on the naval infrastructure of russia have open “partially” the sea routes and diminished greatly the capabilities of the fleet. And now an attack on building with several retirees inside. Better than nothing but still so many airbases,depots, barracks that could have been destroyed.
Most likely, you're right: destroying its symbols alone is not going to cause Russia to lose the war. Destroying huge numbers of its troops - is.
However, it can't hurt to demoralise the troops in question, 'first': it's making the business of killing them in big numbers - a lot easier.
Arrogant of the Russians to keep using that HQ when it was an obvious target.
Probably there will be some domino effects like fleet members not getting paid or nobody ordering/organising supplies for the troops or?
All that should have been computerized. No paperwork, nothing to burn in fire, no real damage to the logistics.
Terminals and computers do not burn?
Experienced staff are not dead or wounded?
This is an Intersting question. I cannot answer, but let me give some of the «cons», not saying they outweigh the costs. First I would argue that throwing headquarters of an enemy into chaos has a military value. Second, I would guess that the headquarters elsewhere (especially on the Crimea) will howl for more and better protection. Generals/Admirals dont want to due, that is for lower level beings. Third, the attack creates fear and frustration in Russia, but I will admit this is the least important argument. Fourth and final, a spectacular success like this hits the Mainstream Media. Yes, both politicans and lots of other people rely on MSM to learn about the war. And while I look elsewhere I do also follow main stream media. And this hits the News. Not fightning around Bakhmut or Robotinye or other places we cannot spell and dont really care about. This? Hits the media, as a success. Military I totally understand the question from ParanoidNow, but hits like this kreps interest, attention and consciousness about the war in the minst of people. It shows that Ukraine can score hits and are doing so. Killing admirals instead of babies. And that is needed. Hence, I think it was worth it, but do I understand the question.
You can compare this blow to the attack on Pentagon on September, 11, though not so impressive to the whole world of course.
If this continous the way it did the last 1-2 weeks, Ukranians soon don't have to give any shit any more about some grain deals or the absence of them. Russian Black sea fleet simply will have to withdraw completely from Sevastopol.
The only play Russia has left then is sinking civilian ships with their 3 or 4 remaining submarines, guess that will play out well for them (although to be fair, the international response to the Kharkovka dam destruction was absolutely shameful)
That building was worth much more in dollar terms than 2 or 4 storm shadows. Other thing is what other things in terms of human resource, documents, equipment were being kept there or present there are worth much more. The building was still smoking hours after the hit. If it turns out its true they killed several senior officers it will be even worth much more.
It can ,partially, be within the efforts to undermine ally's escalation management policies. As well as strikes on Moscow. It makes justifying decisions to withhold some weapon systems harder with every such strike.
Besides the propaganda effect... you gain the experience of overcoming a dense and sophisticated air defence. Don't you?
Vielen Dank! Wie immer hochinteressant und informativ. Ein schönes und erholsames Wochenende!
Thanks a lot for your reports, Tom!
I am following you since a while and like how direct you are.
One question from my side:
If you could make a shopping list in the name of the ZSU and PSU towards its Western allies for the time frame until spring 2024, how would it look like?
Like 30x Gripen, additonal 2-4 patriot system, at least 10 Iris-T.
And which systems would be the most urgent?
Best regards from your neutral neighbooring country,
Toubi
My pleasure!
Re. 'shopping list'....well, ideally, this would look something like this:
- €/US$ 1 billion (if necessary at all: AFAIK, there were offers for as little as US$150 million) for a new (and secure) communications system (foremost one independent from Pudding-fans like Musk),
- €/US$ 2 billion for new electronic warfare systems,
- €/US$ 2 billion for Ukrainian UAV industry,
- €/US$ 1 billion for medical equipment and CASEVAC/MEDEVAC vehicles,
- 50 Rafale F4 or F-35As with 20,000 kits for JDAM/JDAM-ER and suitable warheads
- 15-17 MIM-104 SAM-systems with 2,000 missiles,
- 20 IRIS-T SAM-systems with 2,000 missiles,
- 30 M142 and/or M270s with 20,000 rounds (and production of their ammo in Ukraine),
- either 200 Archer self-propelled 155mm guns, or a production line for them,
- at least 400 MBTs in the class of Leo 2A8/Leclerc XLR/KNDS or K2 (or a production line for them; alternatively, France can send all of its 200 Leclercs to Ukraine right away: it has no use for them),
- similar number of CV-90 IFVs....
That would be a better use of tax proceeds than almost anything else.
'Klotzen statt kleckern'....
Ammo for howitzers and mortars?
Night vision devices?
....that would've followed after '...similar number of CV-90s' - but got no more time left today.
Thanks for you time and effort!
That's a cool list, i appreciate how you started with 1 or 2 billions to ease the reader in and then moved to anti air that alone would be 25B euros/usd. That list alone is 40B? Sadly, I'm not sure if this much money will be spent on new systems, by all of NATO, in total during this war. That is, unless it lasts for a very long time. The US is currently making tonnes of money out of this war.
Well, as usually, the West has two options:
- spend 40 billion 'right away' on systematic acquisitions, or
- spend 400 billion over the next five years, on tit-for-tat acquisitions....
Yes, and we both know that what they will actually choose is to spend 200B over 10 years instead. Then they will complain that the war isn't ending and question what the point of spending that money was in the first place.
The highest priority should probably be something to counter the russian's glide bombs (patriots?)
That would be something for the Iron Dome (Patriots are too expensive even for Shaheds). But, go and tell Israel.....
Thank you for your thorough and detailed analysis. Today Budanov reported that 9 persons of higher Russian fleet command were killed or wounded and about numerous casualties of personnel. The operation was called "Lobster trap". Bearing in mind the successful attack on the HQ at Verkhnesadove it is obvious that the USA now silently approve the extermination of the Russian higher military commanders which was not the case in 2022 when the killing of Gerasimov was planned by SBU. Slava Ukraini!
I still doubt that the US will approve (and even less - facilitate) a strike on Gerassimov or Shoigu. The others are a fair game.
So the most guilty and the most responsible may be untouchable. But the court in Nuremberg thought otherwise.
Thx.
Somehow, I doubt the USA have the right to 'approve' anything in this war: not that the Americans are not trying to impose themselves as decision-makers (and that at every opportunity), but Ukrainians are running their own business, and having their own targets - whether Americans like that or not.
That said, I'm no 'fan' of 'de-capitating strikes': not only that there's a history of these being entirely futile (while unnecessarily expensive), but they're counterproductive.
Why 'de-capitating' Generals that have proven to be incompetents? Let them continue doing their mistakes 'in peace'...
The strikes at HQs in the center of the city that was constantly declared in the USSR and even more in Russia as "the city of the Russian glory" (although without any possible reasons) is like hitting in the face. It does not kill but frightens and humiliates a lot.
To Toms point:
I do not think, there is much tangible result/value of frightening and humiliating the Russians. They appear to be so much of a fatalist type of individuals, that it just has no effect on them. Look at all those soldiers, who rather gets killed than surrendering or pull their own triggers. Guess 20+ years of propaganda has fried their brains to a large degree.
Don’t get me wrong, my initial reaction is also, that it is “good”, that such a HQ is destroyed, but Tom has a valid point.
Let’s assume, the individuals replacing those high ranked killed ones are even more incompetent :-)
Not everybody in Russia is absolutely stupid. The strike that succeeded in destroying the building of the HQ in the center of a highly militarized city in the daytime showed to everybody in Russia the real weakness of the Russian army uncapable to protect "the sacred Crimea". At last "the decision-making center in Ukrainian territory" was hit.
In fact I don't think the Economist knows much about trading strategies. Here is a couple of things they said, from someone with a long memory.
Last time oil prices were around $15 a barrel, they said this was a stable price and oil wouldn't go above $20 again.
Around the turn of the millennium, they ran an article on houses being a terrible investment as they were so overpriced. Better sell your house rather than buy one, they said.
They understand economics in general and operations of businesses but not great at investments at all.
Why the South of Ukraine was not protected, probably because the order was given to leave it. Even if 4-5 brigades were concentrated there, they would not have been able to defend in a clear field without organised fortifications, they would have been simply demolished by Russian aviation (I saw a video of a Ukrainian broken column near Kherson, clearly an air raid) + betrayal of the local SBU.
Another question to the government of Ukraine why for 8 years there were not built fortifications as in Donbass.
One more question, in January they worked on exercises on the Russian offensive from Crimea, then why was not implemented a plan for defence.
(Man how many questions to our government...).
Arestovich said that the Ukrainian government was surprised by the Russian offensive from Belarus, perhaps because of this, combat units from the South were moved to Kiev, as the loss of Kiev is essentially the destruction of Ukraine as a state.
But as it seems to me still the armed forces of Ukraine simply could not protect the whole territory of Ukraine quantitatively, so something had to be sacrificed.
The tragedy of it all is that now we are liberating the South of Ukraine with great difficulty.
Tom, thank you very much for your qualitative analyses of the war in Ukraine and for your sarcasm))))
P.S Opinion of a sofa expert from Kharkiv...
The way I understand it, the situation is simple:
1.) The intel (GRU and/or SBU) failed to obtain info on the Russian planning and inform correspondingly;
2.) because the intel failed to issue a warning, the ZSU didn't act according to that warning.
3.) The ZSU did mine bridges over the istmus, but did nothing to 'guard' the mined bridges, and even less so to develop blocking defences north of them. The experiences from fighting ever since are, IMHO, clearly confirming a fact that a single Ukrainian mechanised brigade would've been 'perfectly enough' to hold off the Russian onslaught for at least a week, preventing at least the capture of Kherson, perhaps even Melitopol and Tokmak.
4.) Even if the intel was a total failure, there were two ZSU generals, both paid to do 'Point 3'. To prepare themselves (see: 'planning') and their troops (see: 'training') for worst case scenarios. Like one when they would have just one brigade and one incomplete battalion to protect the bridges and the istmus from the onslaught of two Russian combined arms armies.
From what they're stating in different interviews for the media, it's obvious they didn't do anything at all. They were caught unprepared (personally and in regards of the troops under their command) and spent the first few days of the war evacuating their HQs, rather than leading their troops into combat.
Not just bridges from Crimea, it was long known Pudding lusted after a land link to Crimea along the Black Sea coast. They should have been prepared to blow rail/road bridges all along that whole route.
Very shocking and I think you're right. Because in every other front the Ukrainian military performed well except OC south. It was a disaster really and cost the lives of so many fighters in Mariupol. Must have been combination of incompetence and betrayal.
Totally agree, major fuck-up appears to be a great understatement!
5) Not enough resources for all axis of attack and thereforee the need to choose the most critical areas to defend.
Just to note: distance from VKS airbases to ZSU positions in Tavria was the shortest along all perimeter (besides the bases in Belarus).
Спасибо, Том
I've seen some articles that Ukraine lost their offensive potential,(Ukrainian,no Western) Do you have some assumptions about real state of ZSU?
What do you know about Lancet strike of Mig 29? Was it mock-up or real plane?
Thanks for the update
ZSU lost offensive potential? In Pudding's wet dreams, sure.
Lancet strike on MiG-29s: yes, but the LPGM missed the jet and hit the ground under its front party. That's why the Russian video is cut off before it would be obvious that relatively little damage was caused (apparently, the Lancet hit the towing bar, and then sprayed the fuselage with schrapnel: that took about 1 week of repairs).
....hope, the PSU is not going to do another dumb mistake like releasing another video shown two MiG-29s taking off from an air base that's easy to recognise....
Thank you for the update. Congratulations to the Economist fot their prize, seems to be well deserved. Personally I strongly believe they will not rest on their laurels, but try to stay competitive.
In the morning General Tarnavsky reported that VSU succeeded to brake Russian defense line near Verbove. Also according to Ukrainian media in the morning were hit the deposits of military goods in Inkerman near Sevastopol. Exact results of the attack are unknown.
Dear Tom, thank you for your report and your profound sarcasm to keep us all sane in this sea of Propaganda.
However, it is really harsh from you to criticise the poor Wehrschütz from the ORF with concrete evidence and logic. He is reporting from there, alone, because the restores of our dear ORF are needed to report about our last fallen sun god. Additionally, this would undermine the fallen sun gods political decision to base our energy supply solely on Russian gas. This decision was supported by both political parties that will "run" our country after the next election and will so decide if his supervisors can keep their overpaid jobs or not. To add a quote from our second to last fallen sungod from his last election campaign: It is important that the poor Austrian pensioners get their (cheap) oil and gas from Russia, because they earned it.
So the poor guy is neither equipped with what he would need, nor does anybody intend to deliver it to him and a truthfull reporting is not welcomed at home anyway. In conclusion he is supported by the ORF like Ukraine by the West. Thankfully Ukrainians are not that incapable of doing there job.
:D
Nice to see that I made you laugh. But if you think about it, it is rather a catastrophy. There is a full scale war going on where there is plenty to report on and then you hear Wehrschütz also reporting about Serbian politics - wtf
What shall I do, Spike? Hast 'den Nagel auf den Kopf getroffen'...
After 19 months of war, the only 'bad' thing Wehrschütz can report about Ukraine is 'corruption': like Putin, he's running out of options.
Corruption is more the general baseline about all the countries he is reporting about...
btw, the latest US aid package included Hawks if I’m not mistaken. The first time we heard about them, nothing worked. Probably US has repaired and tested them before giving them twice.
Let’s see if they will provide any help against the Russian gliding bombs.
Claims today that the US will send (not useable by US) cluster munition versions of ATACMS to Ukraine to address GOP concerns about depleting military reserves and wasting money.
A great example of how to spin an undesirable situation into a benefit :)
Imagine Cluster ATACMS hitting those S-400 sites or Airfields in Crimea instead of modified neptuns and storm shadows =)