Good morning everybody! ‘Even if posting additional posts’, actually, the last few days I was ‘away’ from my office – and already looking forward to explain that the thesis along which ‘lots of things happen whenever Tom is away’, is all wrong…. Obviously, it was me who was wrong. And so, this is going to be a longer update….
Thank you Tom.
The investigation on why the Russian army was able to invade from Crimea has several political aspects:
1) They need to decide who was responsible for mining and blasting bridges: SBU or ZSU.
2) If they assign the guilt to somebody now, they will not be able to blame or imprison Zaluzhny before the next elections.
3) There were construction works at the border with Crimea right before the invasion. This may lead to politicians or businesses outside of SBU and ZSU. Money is involved.
While the attack on the HQ of the Russian Black Sea fleet was spectacular, was it worth two Storm Shadows? Even if the top admiral in the region and the head of the Zaporizhiya operations were both killed (as rumored), besides the propaganda effect you only get the risk that someone more competent will replace them.
Vielen Dank! Wie immer hochinteressant und informativ. Ein schönes und erholsames Wochenende!
Thanks a lot for your reports, Tom!
I am following you since a while and like how direct you are.
One question from my side:
If you could make a shopping list in the name of the ZSU and PSU towards its Western allies for the time frame until spring 2024, how would it look like?
Like 30x Gripen, additonal 2-4 patriot system, at least 10 Iris-T.
And which systems would be the most urgent?
Best regards from your neutral neighbooring country,
Thank you for your thorough and detailed analysis. Today Budanov reported that 9 persons of higher Russian fleet command were killed or wounded and about numerous casualties of personnel. The operation was called "Lobster trap". Bearing in mind the successful attack on the HQ at Verkhnesadove it is obvious that the USA now silently approve the extermination of the Russian higher military commanders which was not the case in 2022 when the killing of Gerasimov was planned by SBU. Slava Ukraini!
In fact I don't think the Economist knows much about trading strategies. Here is a couple of things they said, from someone with a long memory.
Last time oil prices were around $15 a barrel, they said this was a stable price and oil wouldn't go above $20 again.
Around the turn of the millennium, they ran an article on houses being a terrible investment as they were so overpriced. Better sell your house rather than buy one, they said.
Why the South of Ukraine was not protected, probably because the order was given to leave it. Even if 4-5 brigades were concentrated there, they would not have been able to defend in a clear field without organised fortifications, they would have been simply demolished by Russian aviation (I saw a video of a Ukrainian broken column near Kherson, clearly an air raid) + betrayal of the local SBU.
Another question to the government of Ukraine why for 8 years there were not built fortifications as in Donbass.
One more question, in January they worked on exercises on the Russian offensive from Crimea, then why was not implemented a plan for defence.
(Man how many questions to our government...).
Arestovich said that the Ukrainian government was surprised by the Russian offensive from Belarus, perhaps because of this, combat units from the South were moved to Kiev, as the loss of Kiev is essentially the destruction of Ukraine as a state.
But as it seems to me still the armed forces of Ukraine simply could not protect the whole territory of Ukraine quantitatively, so something had to be sacrificed.
The tragedy of it all is that now we are liberating the South of Ukraine with great difficulty.
Tom, thank you very much for your qualitative analyses of the war in Ukraine and for your sarcasm))))
P.S Opinion of a sofa expert from Kharkiv...
I've seen some articles that Ukraine lost their offensive potential,(Ukrainian,no Western) Do you have some assumptions about real state of ZSU?
What do you know about Lancet strike of Mig 29? Was it mock-up or real plane?
Thanks for the update
Thank you for the update. Congratulations to the Economist fot their prize, seems to be well deserved. Personally I strongly believe they will not rest on their laurels, but try to stay competitive.
In the morning General Tarnavsky reported that VSU succeeded to brake Russian defense line near Verbove. Also according to Ukrainian media in the morning were hit the deposits of military goods in Inkerman near Sevastopol. Exact results of the attack are unknown.
Dear Tom, thank you for your report and your profound sarcasm to keep us all sane in this sea of Propaganda.
However, it is really harsh from you to criticise the poor Wehrschütz from the ORF with concrete evidence and logic. He is reporting from there, alone, because the restores of our dear ORF are needed to report about our last fallen sun god. Additionally, this would undermine the fallen sun gods political decision to base our energy supply solely on Russian gas. This decision was supported by both political parties that will "run" our country after the next election and will so decide if his supervisors can keep their overpaid jobs or not. To add a quote from our second to last fallen sungod from his last election campaign: It is important that the poor Austrian pensioners get their (cheap) oil and gas from Russia, because they earned it.
So the poor guy is neither equipped with what he would need, nor does anybody intend to deliver it to him and a truthfull reporting is not welcomed at home anyway. In conclusion he is supported by the ORF like Ukraine by the West. Thankfully Ukrainians are not that incapable of doing there job.
btw, the latest US aid package included Hawks if I’m not mistaken. The first time we heard about them, nothing worked. Probably US has repaired and tested them before giving them twice.
Let’s see if they will provide any help against the Russian gliding bombs.
Claims today that the US will send (not useable by US) cluster munition versions of ATACMS to Ukraine to address GOP concerns about depleting military reserves and wasting money.
A great example of how to spin an undesirable situation into a benefit :)