Hello everybody! A lot is going on all along the battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine, so let me get straight to the ‘events’. Ground warfare and analysis are to follow later on… Since the night from 10 to 11 July, the Russians are running an all-out missile offensive on the port of Odesa. That is: there are three ports there. Port 1 and Port 2 are along the coast, surrounded by the city; the Port 3 is few kilometres north of it, and, reportedly, partially owned by the Cargill Corporation (essentially: a big-style retailer for agricultural products; see, the characters who are
Absolute zero. All weapons, ammo and equipment is shipped by road or rail trough Poland, Romania and Slovakia. There is no point in risking Russians boarding or sinking ships, plus that route is longer and slower. Surface drones are easier (and more easy to conceal) to launch from ports than from ships at sea. They use satcom, so no need for radar relay or command ships.
Good morning I was just checking your web page and new report appeared. Do you have any information about Russian offense near Novoegorivka. They advanced by 4-5 km during last 4 days and it concerns me. Moreover, I’ve seen a few video of claster munition using for example near Dibrova (and a lot of complaints in Russian Telegram publics) How effective is it against VSRF
Thanks Tom for the concise resume of latest missile attacks in the southern front.
It’s evident (to me) that Keystone Cops want to reduce Odessa capacity of handling grain, at the same time they’re rejecting the agreement about grain movements.
If, for one time, Media explain to the world the consequences for third countries (I.e.: starvation), maybe the support for RuZZia may go rock bottom.
NATO must surely give Ukraine the power to obliterate those Russian warships. It' is ridiculous that they can just sit there with impunity and lob missiles into civilian infrastructure.
I would only add to the above - what capability does Ukraine have to hit the Russian fleet in the Black sea? I am (naively) surprised that we have see comparatively few attempts in that regard.
Hiya, thanks for the update Tom. Is there any way of working out the amount of missiles Russia has in stock/produces each month. Is there any estimate on how long they can keep up the awful missile attacks. Thanks again for your time. Rob.
I guess that no foreigners really know, because Russia is importing/producing drones all the time, so these numbers are varying all the time.
My suspicion is, Russia stocks a X amount of rockets/missiles, then does a large attack in concurrent waves, trying to saturate the anti missile defenses of Ukraine and manage a heavy hit. So, I wouldn't be too surprised that there'll be a bit of a lull before the next massive attack.
Lafayette Escadrille in WWI, Flying Tigers in WWII; Russians in Mig-15s in Korea. Foreign volunteers are now in UKR army. Why wait to train Ukrainians? Foreign F-16 pilots, ground crew, support teams and planes could deploy faster, and help Ukrainians transition later.
But it is posted claim that it was Ukrainian S-300 missile that hits Cathedral because there are fragments in a wall which correspond to S-300 missile.
Can you confirm or refute this?
Honestly, I googled about photos of SAM fragments etc, but for me it is hard to assert something.
What is interesting, though, is that prime time Russian television is gloating over the attacks, and asking for more.
I suspect they now hate Odesans more than Galicians, since the former are "Traitors to the Motherland", and of course Jews (i.e. not Russians) as well.
Great summation of the attacks. That much of the grain was intended for China is surprising, and suggests that little strategic thought went into this.
To me, it seems Putin stopped thinking about genuine strategic goals long ago, and is now simply using the attacks to bolster his own ego. He's shaky after Vagner, and needs to reassure himself that he still has control over the war.
A better strategy might be to stay on the defensive, while equipping and training up new formations that would have some offensive capability later in the year. Also more sensible would be to hoard his missiles for a campaign against both Kyiv and Odesa, in coordination with a ground assault.
Instead, he seems to use these attacks like a drug, to prove to himself that, despite his many setbacks, and the Vagner mutiny, he is still Russia's only "Vozhd."
The main the, oldest and the biggest church (SOBOR - the cathedral) was ruined in Odessa. I wonder why the Pope in Rome is so timid and silent. Maybe he also thinks that this cathedral was used to prepare terroristic attacks on Russia.
Fair point, but there is something more offensive about the ships. They aren't even on Russian territory. The same is true of air launched missiles but the planes spend most of their time back at base. But, yes, I agree, NATO should give Ukraine the means to obliterate the planes too.
Absolute zero. All weapons, ammo and equipment is shipped by road or rail trough Poland, Romania and Slovakia. There is no point in risking Russians boarding or sinking ships, plus that route is longer and slower. Surface drones are easier (and more easy to conceal) to launch from ports than from ships at sea. They use satcom, so no need for radar relay or command ships.
Good morning I was just checking your web page and new report appeared. Do you have any information about Russian offense near Novoegorivka. They advanced by 4-5 km during last 4 days and it concerns me. Moreover, I’ve seen a few video of claster munition using for example near Dibrova (and a lot of complaints in Russian Telegram publics) How effective is it against VSRF
Thank you
Will be covered in the 'Part 2', latter today.
Спасибо, Том.
Thanks Tom for the concise resume of latest missile attacks in the southern front.
It’s evident (to me) that Keystone Cops want to reduce Odessa capacity of handling grain, at the same time they’re rejecting the agreement about grain movements.
If, for one time, Media explain to the world the consequences for third countries (I.e.: starvation), maybe the support for RuZZia may go rock bottom.
NATO must surely give Ukraine the power to obliterate those Russian warships. It' is ridiculous that they can just sit there with impunity and lob missiles into civilian infrastructure.
NATO will issue notice of deep concern. Maybe even very deep concern.
Why are you so concerned about warships? Shakheds, X-22s, Onyxes and X-59 all launch from the ground or air. Only Kalibrs launch from the sea.
I would only add to the above - what capability does Ukraine have to hit the Russian fleet in the Black sea? I am (naively) surprised that we have see comparatively few attempts in that regard.
Hitting naval vessels outside of land based weapon systems is hard, if opposition denies you ability to use your own air or naval capabilities.
Hitting ruzzian merchant vessels might be a different story.
Thank you Tom.
This is typical gangster racket - " if you do not pay we will burn your shop".
Ruzzia is not a state but a gang.
Hiya, thanks for the update Tom. Is there any way of working out the amount of missiles Russia has in stock/produces each month. Is there any estimate on how long they can keep up the awful missile attacks. Thanks again for your time. Rob.
I guess that no foreigners really know, because Russia is importing/producing drones all the time, so these numbers are varying all the time.
My suspicion is, Russia stocks a X amount of rockets/missiles, then does a large attack in concurrent waves, trying to saturate the anti missile defenses of Ukraine and manage a heavy hit. So, I wouldn't be too surprised that there'll be a bit of a lull before the next massive attack.
Thanks Tom. Another story of just how inadequate is the help by the West.
Thanks Tom for the report sounds bad on the air war front with Russians overwhelming UAF's air defenses
Lafayette Escadrille in WWI, Flying Tigers in WWII; Russians in Mig-15s in Korea. Foreign volunteers are now in UKR army. Why wait to train Ukrainians? Foreign F-16 pilots, ground crew, support teams and planes could deploy faster, and help Ukrainians transition later.
Hi Tom,
Maybe it is quite ridiculous question but I haven't enough knowledge to invest this by myself.
This account is truly pro-russian https://twitter.com/narrative_hole/status/1683079246640447488.
But it is posted claim that it was Ukrainian S-300 missile that hits Cathedral because there are fragments in a wall which correspond to S-300 missile.
Can you confirm or refute this?
Honestly, I googled about photos of SAM fragments etc, but for me it is hard to assert something.
Perhaps.
What is interesting, though, is that prime time Russian television is gloating over the attacks, and asking for more.
I suspect they now hate Odesans more than Galicians, since the former are "Traitors to the Motherland", and of course Jews (i.e. not Russians) as well.
Great summation of the attacks. That much of the grain was intended for China is surprising, and suggests that little strategic thought went into this.
To me, it seems Putin stopped thinking about genuine strategic goals long ago, and is now simply using the attacks to bolster his own ego. He's shaky after Vagner, and needs to reassure himself that he still has control over the war.
A better strategy might be to stay on the defensive, while equipping and training up new formations that would have some offensive capability later in the year. Also more sensible would be to hoard his missiles for a campaign against both Kyiv and Odesa, in coordination with a ground assault.
Instead, he seems to use these attacks like a drug, to prove to himself that, despite his many setbacks, and the Vagner mutiny, he is still Russia's only "Vozhd."
The main the, oldest and the biggest church (SOBOR - the cathedral) was ruined in Odessa. I wonder why the Pope in Rome is so timid and silent. Maybe he also thinks that this cathedral was used to prepare terroristic attacks on Russia.
Fair point, but there is something more offensive about the ships. They aren't even on Russian territory. The same is true of air launched missiles but the planes spend most of their time back at base. But, yes, I agree, NATO should give Ukraine the means to obliterate the planes too.