Ukraine War, 23 February 2024

Hello everybody!

Guess, you know that ‘something‘s going on’ whenever I re-appear either late at night, or this early in the morning… In this case, there are even two reasons.

But, step-by-step, please.

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Because, earlier today, somebody from the Ukrainian media asked me something like, ‘why is Russia attacking so massively, right now’?

It’s a combination of reasons.

1.)    Putin is obsessed with borders, and thus insistent on ‘complete liberation’ of all the oblasts of Ukraine (oblast = region or province) he’s annexed in 2022, and that up to their borders with the rest of the country. Read: he wants all, every corner of Luhansk, all of Donetsk, all of Zaporizhzhya, and all of Kherson. Therefore, it seems the VSRF has received the task to grab as much as possible of all of these.

2.)    Given that Pudding seems to like anniversaries too, it might be so that this task is to be accomplished either by the 2^nd anniversary of Pudding’s ‘Two-Weeks-Parade’ (24 February) or by the presidential election in Russia (15-17 March), as some say.

3.)    Foremost, right now, Ukrainian armed forces (ZSU) are critically short on artillery ammunition. Regardless what a bunch of corrupt incompetents are his adversaries in Europe, Pudding (and thus Shoygu, and therefore Gerasimov too) must take their pledge to deliver 1,000,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of March seriously. Means: the VSRF has an opportunity to advance now, before these shells start arriving. Once they are in Ukraine, that’s going to become much more problematic.

***

Anyway, to the battlefields…

Kupyansk-Svatove… The last two days (22-23 February), the Russians run few attacks on Synkivka and Tabaivka, but these were repelled. Similar is valid for their attacks from the Kremina area in direction of Terny and Vymka. Indeed, Ukrainians then counterattacked the 2^nd Guards Motor-Rifle Division south-east of Terny and pushed it some 500 metres back.

Bakhmut… this is the first of two areas that prompted this report…

Remember I’ve mentioned heavy Russian air strikes on Chasiv Yar, west of Bakhmut?

Now it’s becoming clear why….

Early in the morning of 22 February, the Russians launched a relatively big attack in the Bohdanivka area (NW Bakhmut), in direction of Kaynivka and Chasiv Yar. This run into positions of the 21^st and 56^th Motorised Brigades, supported by the 23^rd Presidential Brigade, and was smashed.

Burning Russian BMPs on approaches to Kaynivka and Chasiv Yar, early on 22 February.

Yestarday late in the afternoon, reports arrived indicating a critical situation in the village of Ivanivske, two kilometres south of Kaynivka, and 3-4km west of Bakhmut. Apparently, elements of the 11^th VDV Brigade have found a way to reach the village.

AFAIK, Ivanivske is defended by the 24^th Assault Battalion ‘Aidar’. This is an element of the 5^th Assault Brigade. Moreover, the 93^rd Mech is nearby, as is the 17^th Tank. Now, the 17^th Tank and the 93^rd Mech need ‘no special presentation’: we’re following their war-paths through this conflict since 24 February 2022. Sufficient to say the 93^rd was re-built to some seven battalions (incl. one with Swedish-made CV-90 IFVs), while the 5^th Assault is meanwhile similar in size. Thus, if the situation was (or still is) as ‘bad’ as some say, and if the Russians have really reached the centre of the village, then they must have either found a way to infiltrate it, or attacked there ‘like mad’, literally ‘Avidiivka-style’. One way or the other, the latest word is that this evening Ukrainians have managed to, ‘finally’, push the Russians all the way back to the ‘first street’ of the village. Indeed, to the ‘last few houses in the eastern outskirts’. Reportedly, some 8-10 BMPs were destroyed in the process, together with some 60-70 troops, but: this was not enough to finish the assailants.

Reason?

Guess what: lack of artillery- and mortar ammo…

T-64BVM of the 93rd Mech.

Avidiivka... The Russians are still trying to enter Stepove, but only suffering costly reversals, the last two or three days. As obvious from the video-still below, the battlefield is dominated by single Russian troops (upper left corner) running from Ukrainian UAVs over scores of their dead comrades…

The Russians also continued assaulting Lastochkyne, yesterday: the 3rd Assault first intercepted and then swarmed by FPV-drones one of their convoys underway inside Avidiivka, near the Railway Station, destroying several trucks. Then, when the Russians attempted to attack Lastochkyne, it seems the gunners of the 3rd have found a batch of DCIPM shells, because they plastered the assailants really bad on western approaches to the village. Consequence: few rather grim videos’ (and the 3rd is really ‘excelling’ at recording and providing these). Between others, the panicked driver of the BMD visible on the video-still below, drove over the leg of one of infantrymen that fell off his vehicle…

Shakhtarsk… This is the area that currently looks like ‘most critical’ to me - and thus the ‘second actual reason’ for this update.

Essentially, the 20^th and the 150^th Motor Rifle Divisions, VSRF (8^th CAA), are pushing ‘like crazy’ for days, and have, on 19-20 February, captured the village of Pobeda. The 33^rd Mech, ZSU, has counterattacked, but… sigh… lacked the artillery ammunition to support this effort, and gave up, yesterday in the evening.

Moreover, since 20-21 February, the VKS is heavily bombing the village of Kurakhove, 3-4km west of Mariinka. Means, an attack there is likely to be imminent.

Problem: Pobeda is on an elevation above the next two villages held by Ukrainians, further south: Kostiantynivka and Novomykhalivka, of which the latter is already under attack of the (re-re-re-built) 155^th Naval Infantry Brigade. Indeed, despite fierce resistance by the 79^th Airborne and the 116^th Territorial Defence Brigades, the Russians have already managed to enter the eastern side of the latter village, few days ago.

Not sure if this was a T-72 or (more likely) T-80 of the 20th or 150th Motor-Rifle Division. Certain is only that yesterday, the 79th Airborne converted it into a pile of burning wreckage.

Foremost: Kostiantynivka and Novomykhalivka are something like ‘northern gate’ to Vuhledar (still held by the 72^nd Mech)…

…and this is the sector of the frontline most distant from Kyiv, Zaporizhzhya and Dnipro… Read: the Russians have all the air support they might want to have, and Ukrainians the least volumes of air defence, supplies and reinforcements of all… that’s the reason for my worries.

Guess, we’ll have to wait and see…

Robotyne… The Russians have meanwhile thrown also the full weight of their infantry into the assault on Robotyne from the west and the south. Units known to be involved are the 235^th VDV Regiment, 42^nd Motor-Rifle Division, and the 136^th Guards Motor Rifle Brigade. In the light of this, and the Russian penetration of 117^th Mech’s positions on the Hill 110 (half-way between Robotyne and Verbove; see my map from 21 February), Ukrainians have ‘shortened’ their frontline: i.e. withdrawn some 500-600 metres further north, and that along some 2,000 metres of the frontline.

That said, Robotyne remains firmly in their hands.

Kherson… yes, yes, once again: I know Shoygu has announced the capture of Krymky. But, yes, yes, the village is still under the control of Ukrainian naval infantry. Indeed, Ukrainians have published a video showing the destruction of an SA-13 (aka Strela-10, left on the video-still below) and a SA-15 SAM-system (aka Tor M1) of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, yesterday.