Ukraine War, 22 June 2024: UMPKs over Lyptsi

Hello everybody!

Got up early, this Saturday morning - and not only because of another thunderstorm… and, as usually, started checking what’s up around.

And so, while sipping on my mug of cappuccino, couldn’t but conclude that one of funniest… or, well: not really ‘funny’, rather ‘ironic’ – things to monitor is when the media (whether ‘mainstream’ or ‘social’) starts discussing each other. So, for example: when the Russians drop two of their ‘3000-kilogram UMPKs’ upon Ukrainian positions in Lyptsi, in northern Kharkiv, the ‘news’ is not about how comes, what of Russian units did this or how, but the ‘news’ is what has who said…

OK, so… lets discuss this topic ‘my style’.

1.)    Yes, in March this year, Shoygu announced ‘production of new bombs’ during his visit to a factory in Nizhny Novgorod….

Shoygu as seen while visiting the bomb-factory in Nizhny Novgorod, with a FAB-3000M-54 bomb (calibre 3000kg) in the background.

2.)    But, no, the bombs in question are nothing new. As already mentioned, alone their designation is telling the entire story: it ends with ‘M-54’ which stands for the year in which their design was accepted and production initiated. I.e. the Year 1954.

3.)    To clarify this a bit: since 1945, the Soviets have launched production of three ‘families’ of free-fall bombs made for release from their aircraft (and, later on: helicopters):

-          A) M-46 series (from the Year 1946),

-          B) M-54 series (from the Year 1954), and

-          C) M-62 series (from the Year 1962).

In the M-46 and M-54 families, there were bombs calibre 50-, 100-, 250-, 500-, 1500-, and 3000 kilogram. Which conditioned their full designations, too. See: FAB-50M-46, FAB-100M-46 etc… or FAB-250M-54… or FAB-500M-62 etc.

The M-46 series was actually based on designs of German-made free-fall bombs from the Second World War. It was made for deployment from piston-engined, and thus subsonic aircraft. Might appear unimportant to a layman, but: fact is that it had relatively thin casings. Casings of the kind making them unable to survive the overpressure caused if they were carried externally by aircraft underway at speeds higher than around 1,000km/h (not to talk about supersonic speeds, i.e. 1,200km/h or more).

FAB-3000M-46

The M-54 was the first Soviet series of free-fall bombs made for deployment from internal bays of such jet bombers like Il-28 and Tu-16. Neither could reach supersonic speeds but they flew faster than piston-engined aircraft. Therefore, this family has received reinforced casings, to enable their deployment from higher speeds. Moreover, it was manufactured not only in usual calibres listed above, but also in much bigger calibres like 6000- and 9000kg (designed for release from subsonic bombers like Tu-16 and Tu-95 bombers, or even supersonic bombers like Tu-22).

FAB-3000M-54

The M-62 series was manufactured for deployment from supersonic jet aircraft. It was designed for carriage on external hardpoints and thus received a ‘low drag’ – or ‘aerodynamic’ body, and the aircraft carrying them could accelerate up to 1,900km/h. However, it was never manufactured in other calibres than 250- and 500kg.

FAB-500M-62

Now, in the West, and except for ‘free fall’, such weapons are described as ‘high explosive’ and/or ‘general purpose’ bombs. The designation ‘FAB’ is an abbreviation for Fugasnaya Avia Bomba: ‘aerial demolition bomb’ in Russian. This is ‘important’ because parallel to the M-54 and M-62 series, the Soviets developed also families of other, ‘specialised’ bombs, like (few examples):

ODAB (fuel-air-explosive or thermobaric),

OFAB (high explosive fragmentation),

OFZAB (high explosive fragmentation incendiary),

RBK (cluster), and

ZAB (napalm).

Their designs were ‘generally similar’, but – except for fin assembly – ‘not the same’ like those of bombs from the M-54 and M-62 series.

***

That much about the ‘basics’ of the Soviet/Russian free-fall bombs. Now lets take a look at what kind of bombs have the Russians really deployed against Ukrainian positions in Lyptsi.

General conclusion seems to be in style, ‘must’ve been UMPK based on FAB-3000M-54’. Usually because somebody else claimed so, somewhere on the internet. Probably starting with the Russians…

However, so far, the Russians have not shown any UMPK-kits for FAB-3000M-54s. They have only shown this kit for FAB-1500M-54:

…or photos like this one, showing a UMPK based on FAB-1500M-54 installed under the centreline of a Su-34 bomber (in between of two engine nacelles):

….and, this weapon - the UMPK based on FAB-1500M-54 - is known to have been deployed by the VKS in air strikes on Ukraine, multiple times since March this year. For example: against Kharkiv, where one such bomb demolished most of a street and killed a woman. Another was dropped on Kupyansk, and yet another on a village outside Kharkiv…

….while there is no evidence that the VKS has any UMPK-kits for FAB-3000M-54s in operations.

This is of importance because even if not much longer than the FAB-1500M-54, the FAB-3000M-54 has a much wider diameter, and it is two times as heavy. Dimensions of FAB-1500M-54s (foreground) and FAB-3000M-54s (background) are quite well-seen on this photograph from the bomb-factory in Nizhny Novgorod:

Here one should keep in mind that already the UMPK-kit for the FAB-1500M-54 is very large and very heavy. The FAB-3000M-54 is so heavy that an UMPK-kit for it would require much bigger wing assembly than the one for the FAB-1500M-54. Probably something with telescopinc wings or similar.

Finally, the body of the weapon visible on the second video released by the Russians and showing their ‘3000kg bomb’ during the strike on Lyptsi (pay attention at the size of the wing, and the slender bomb body) is simply ‘not fitting’ one for a 3000kg bomb. It does fit for a 1500kg bomb:

Therefore, cannot but agree with the conclusion here: the weapons deployed were UMPKs based on FAB-1500M-54s, not on FAB-3000M-54s.

Alternatively, the weapon in question was an ODAB-1500:

After all, the Russians have already shown UMPK-kit for that bomb:

….and their deployment in combat was reported by Moscow back in March, too.

With other words: whether these two UMPKs deployed against Ukrainians in Lyptsi were based on FAB-1500M-54s or ODAB-1500s - they were ‘nothing new’.

The same is valid for aircraft deploying them: almost certainly, these were the ‘usual suspects’, Su-34s.

Their capability to carry up to three weapons calibre 1500kg is well-known, for decades already. As nicelly illustrated by such diagrams like this one:

Notable on this diagram is the capability to load three KAB-1500s (10th line) or 3 ‘PTB’ (drop tanks; last line) on stations 12, 1, and 11.

….and the two UMPKs in question were not particularly precise: even some of the Russians admit that both weapons missed their aimpoints by dozens of metres. Of course, due to massive amounts of overpressure they deploy when detonating, they’re still causing plenty of damage. Indeed, they can be lethal to fully-exposed people out to 1000m away from the point at which they detonated. At least I wouldn’t like to be anywhere in that hospital-building while a bomb calibre 1500kg is detonating ‘outside’.

***

***

P.S.

Before anybody asks things like, ‘and how comes a Tu-22M-3 could deploy a weapon not designed for deployment from a supersonic bomber - like that ancient FAB-3000M-46’?

The fact the Tu-22M-3 can fly at supersonic speeds does not ‘automatically’ mean that it is all the time flying at supersonic speeds. Actually, 99,99% of time it’s flying at subsonic speeds. Just like an airliner. Yes, so also in combat. Especially when there is no threat for the bomber – whether because the enemy lacks air defences that can threaten it, or because the bomber is flying so high the enemy weapons cannot reach it. See Mariupol of March-April 2022: the Ukrainian garrison could not defend itself from air strikes by Tu-22M-3s flying at 2,000 metres altitude or higher. There was no threat. Thus, the weapon was loaded inside the bomb-bay, where it’s ‘relatively safe’ from overpressure caused by the aircraft’s speed, and then it was released from speeds as slow as 600-700km/h - which, in turn, was improving the precision, too.

Should there be any doubts: this Tu-22 was captured on a video while flying slow over Mariupol, in March-April 2022 - and, gauging by shadows dropped by its wing, the wing was fully spread, meaning that it was flying slow (at least for a ‘supersonic bomber’)…

….almost exactly in same fashion like the example visible on the following photo, taken back in 2018 over Syria: