Good morning! Just a short update because a lot is going on, but I’m in a hurry. In the air… the PSU hit a VSRF deport in Volnovakha, yesterday, and the port of Berdyansk, followed by Vasilivka, this morning. The Russians targeted the Kharkiv Oblast and Kryvyi Rih with Iskanders, early this morning (around 00.35hrs).
Well, 'back and forth' is relative: ZSU can't ignore Russian counterattacks. They take troops taking cover and operating from positions where they can be well-covered by own support weapons (artillery, mortars, ATGMs, grenade launchers etc.), while protected from enemy artillery. Otherwise, there are losses. That's the lesson of the first week of this one.
It looks like this morning the Chongar bridge between the Crimea and the mainland (towards Melitopol) was hit a'la Antonovsky Bridge. Another dent in the replenishing efforts of the lost ammo in Rykove.
This morning ZSU fnd Russia media also declared the Chongar bridge to Crimea was ruined. In fact there are TWO bridges in Chongar, one of them a railway bridge providing the connection with Djankoi. There is no photo and no news about the latter, so maybe it is intact. These bridges were built in Soviet times and they are far more fragile than the Kerch bridge.
Russian video shows only 2 road bridges, one of them being damaged seriously and the other only slightly hit. In Ukrainian media there is no information whether the Chongar railway bridge was hit or not. This bridge was the main railway road to Crimea before the Kerch bridge was built. The road through Armiansk is of minor importance.
(Banned)Jun 22, 2023·edited Jun 22, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Every picture I have seen of Russian equipment shows poor build quality and even worse maintenance. While that may not be an accurate representation of typical Russian quality, it is certainly my Western propaganda influenced(?) impression.
When I see the Russians capturing quality Western equipment in seemingly "good" condition, I wonder if their soldiers inspect it in awe. I wonder if they think, just maybe, their system isn't as great as they are told. I have to balance that with my stereotype of the typical Russian believing they <would> be great if not for X, Y, and Z bad things happening to them, they would be making things even better given half the chance they deserve.
Hmmm. That last sentence sounds like an entitled American excuse!
there is a video with a captured French AMX wheeled tank, there is something like this dialogue - "what kind of shit is this, they don't even have an automatic loader. yes, yes, they really have a fourth person there and should feed shells. fucked up!"
Manufacturing quality is poor in Russia already since the times of the USSR (if not before).
Just one example: everybody in the Middle East - Iraq, Libya, Syria - was striving to get Czechoslovak, or at least Polish-made T-55s, T-72s and BMPs, because they've had a much better reputation than Soviet made 'originals'.
Looking at visually-confirmed losses, June '23 does appear to be a strong contender for the worst month of the war for Ukraine in relative losses (though absolute ones are not light). The worst was last December, but June might beat it by the end. That is, global equipment losses are ~1:1 for these months. The only bright spot compared to December is the advantage in artillery exchange.
In the southern campaign specifically, losses have been even worse than 1:1.
I know Tom for one has no faith in Western training capacity, but as I've been insisting for going on a year, 'free trial' individual or small-unit training in "combined arms" or specialized platforms will obviously not produce the results that a year of comprehensive divisional training and exercises would.
Ukraine's soldiers and officers remain undertrained, underskilled, and underequipped, but we should understand that proper training will always be a force multiplier amid materiel shortages - which training is something no one else on Earth can provide.
EDIT: Actually, this month might be definitively the worst for the ZSU, since IIRC last December Oryx dumped in a lot of old Ukrainian backlog losses.
There is a good argument that Ukraine has a blank check to achieve stalemate. The longrunning theme of Cooper's blog has been, will it ever receive a blank check for victory?
Both Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces are now more experienced in conventional warfare than any others in 35 years, and perhaps in 70+ years. But the way I would put it is that training is always superior to raw experience. There are many possible examples, including non-analogies, but think of the difference between someone who haphazardly strums a violin for 5 hours a day for a year, and that person if given a month of professional instruction.
On all measures, it seems, the ZSU does not have the means or ability to overcome strategic barriers. To defeat Russia, NATO must improve the ZSU on *all* metrics, even if one thinks NATO itself is highly overrated from a military standpoint these days.
Russians looks like started to fight in division format, from batallion tachtical groups year ago.
Ukrainians always fighting in brigade form.
Do we have any sign of transforming to corps? Looks like size of the army and fights ( 9 brigades in some small area ) is in favour of bigger formations
Not yet. AFAIK, the counterattack by the 127th was the first operation of that 'size' in a year. And even then: the two brigades involved were each at only some 50-60% of their strength, and arrived rather 'piecemeal' to the battlefield - whether because of mechanical breakdowns, Ukrainian shelling, or poor commanders. That's why its counterattacks lasted something like 4-5 days, and were - relatively - easy to repulse.
Tom, thank you very much for the information. For some reason, you can see better what is happening in our country from abroad. You give much more objective analysis than Ukrainian military commentators. Because we only have "betrayal" or "victory" )
It's not like all the 'major' Ukrainian (and/or Russian) analysts are 'bad': 1-2 Ukrainians are actually very good, as is one Russian (though he's not posting on the social media). But, much of their analysis reminds me too strongly of 'Soviet times' (indeed: most do 'read' like 'typical Soviet military history'), and that's when I always get a bad feeling....
Technical question: Does the ATACMS require some longer special training or if a crew can use the HIMARS pods it's just a few days of extra training.
I ask because yesterday came out a bipartisan resolution which not just support sending them but calls Biden to do. My little itching toe says that soon they will be there. (hopefully just like the Storm Shadows - oh, did we forget to tell it before? Sorry, our bad.)
Really, no trace of clue. For me, that's 'NATO' and thus 'none of my business'.
Don't get me wrong, please: not that I wouldn't be interested. But, for more than 35 years, I've actually 'specialised' in 'Soviet/Russian clients' in Africa and the Middle East, and ('only') since Syria of 2015 'into Russians' (as can be seen by topics to which I've published, too: https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php?sid=c686f9cb84b2910bde2c625c00e9b9a1).
That's 'more than enough', and keeping me so busy, I do not have the time for 'NATO', too.
I guess there must be dozens of well-informed people in the Western social media to know about such details.
May I ask about your opinion concerning the latest Prigozhin message and the subsequent Twitter hyperventilation. Of course I understand, if your response is, that your time would be wasted, commenting such nonsense 😊 (e.g. the associated video appears clearly staged to my amateur eyes).
Thank you Tom.
BTW - Prigozhyn is crying again - claiming ZSU advances in four areas from Dnipro banks Hola Prystan') to Urazhaine (the one next to Staromaiorske).
We will see.
Perfectly fine with me.
Dont trust Prigozhyn and Girkin - they hate ukraine much more then average russian officer.
They are negative in order to speed up transformation of russian army, not because they like Ukraine.
No doubt about that.
Tom, again, sincere thanks for keeping your followers so well informed!!!
Obviously a phase of “back and forth”, hopefully leading to accelerated force degradation in the Russian side.
Well, 'back and forth' is relative: ZSU can't ignore Russian counterattacks. They take troops taking cover and operating from positions where they can be well-covered by own support weapons (artillery, mortars, ATGMs, grenade launchers etc.), while protected from enemy artillery. Otherwise, there are losses. That's the lesson of the first week of this one.
Do you think its better if russians counter-attack then if they sit in defence?
They are left without other options.
Thanks a lot again Tom
Thank you for the update!
It looks like this morning the Chongar bridge between the Crimea and the mainland (towards Melitopol) was hit a'la Antonovsky Bridge. Another dent in the replenishing efforts of the lost ammo in Rykove.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1671760313820012545
Impatiently waiting for the destruction of the railway bridge as well as for the bridges in Armiansk.
Yup. Now some 5 bridges plus a similar number of weapons depots between the Crimea and Melitopol have been hit.
This morning ZSU fnd Russia media also declared the Chongar bridge to Crimea was ruined. In fact there are TWO bridges in Chongar, one of them a railway bridge providing the connection with Djankoi. There is no photo and no news about the latter, so maybe it is intact. These bridges were built in Soviet times and they are far more fragile than the Kerch bridge.
Both were hit. There are good sat photos confirming this, meanwhile.
Russian video shows only 2 road bridges, one of them being damaged seriously and the other only slightly hit. In Ukrainian media there is no information whether the Chongar railway bridge was hit or not. This bridge was the main railway road to Crimea before the Kerch bridge was built. The road through Armiansk is of minor importance.
Tom, thanks a lot for your analysis and expertise!
Thank you Tom, for all you do.
One less Zemledeliye minelayer :)
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1671835902711087104
Every picture I have seen of Russian equipment shows poor build quality and even worse maintenance. While that may not be an accurate representation of typical Russian quality, it is certainly my Western propaganda influenced(?) impression.
When I see the Russians capturing quality Western equipment in seemingly "good" condition, I wonder if their soldiers inspect it in awe. I wonder if they think, just maybe, their system isn't as great as they are told. I have to balance that with my stereotype of the typical Russian believing they <would> be great if not for X, Y, and Z bad things happening to them, they would be making things even better given half the chance they deserve.
Hmmm. That last sentence sounds like an entitled American excuse!
Thanks!
there is a video with a captured French AMX wheeled tank, there is something like this dialogue - "what kind of shit is this, they don't even have an automatic loader. yes, yes, they really have a fourth person there and should feed shells. fucked up!"
Manufacturing quality is poor in Russia already since the times of the USSR (if not before).
Just one example: everybody in the Middle East - Iraq, Libya, Syria - was striving to get Czechoslovak, or at least Polish-made T-55s, T-72s and BMPs, because they've had a much better reputation than Soviet made 'originals'.
Thanks Tom for the good quick report like you said lots happening
Looking at visually-confirmed losses, June '23 does appear to be a strong contender for the worst month of the war for Ukraine in relative losses (though absolute ones are not light). The worst was last December, but June might beat it by the end. That is, global equipment losses are ~1:1 for these months. The only bright spot compared to December is the advantage in artillery exchange.
In the southern campaign specifically, losses have been even worse than 1:1.
I know Tom for one has no faith in Western training capacity, but as I've been insisting for going on a year, 'free trial' individual or small-unit training in "combined arms" or specialized platforms will obviously not produce the results that a year of comprehensive divisional training and exercises would.
Ukraine's soldiers and officers remain undertrained, underskilled, and underequipped, but we should understand that proper training will always be a force multiplier amid materiel shortages - which training is something no one else on Earth can provide.
EDIT: Actually, this month might be definitively the worst for the ZSU, since IIRC last December Oryx dumped in a lot of old Ukrainian backlog losses.
There is a good argument that Ukraine has a blank check to achieve stalemate. The longrunning theme of Cooper's blog has been, will it ever receive a blank check for victory?
Both Russian and Ukrainian Armed Forces are now more experienced in conventional warfare than any others in 35 years, and perhaps in 70+ years. But the way I would put it is that training is always superior to raw experience. There are many possible examples, including non-analogies, but think of the difference between someone who haphazardly strums a violin for 5 hours a day for a year, and that person if given a month of professional instruction.
On all measures, it seems, the ZSU does not have the means or ability to overcome strategic barriers. To defeat Russia, NATO must improve the ZSU on *all* metrics, even if one thinks NATO itself is highly overrated from a military standpoint these days.
Russians looks like started to fight in division format, from batallion tachtical groups year ago.
Ukrainians always fighting in brigade form.
Do we have any sign of transforming to corps? Looks like size of the army and fights ( 9 brigades in some small area ) is in favour of bigger formations
Not yet. AFAIK, the counterattack by the 127th was the first operation of that 'size' in a year. And even then: the two brigades involved were each at only some 50-60% of their strength, and arrived rather 'piecemeal' to the battlefield - whether because of mechanical breakdowns, Ukrainian shelling, or poor commanders. That's why its counterattacks lasted something like 4-5 days, and were - relatively - easy to repulse.
Tom, thank you very much for the information. For some reason, you can see better what is happening in our country from abroad. You give much more objective analysis than Ukrainian military commentators. Because we only have "betrayal" or "victory" )
It's not like all the 'major' Ukrainian (and/or Russian) analysts are 'bad': 1-2 Ukrainians are actually very good, as is one Russian (though he's not posting on the social media). But, much of their analysis reminds me too strongly of 'Soviet times' (indeed: most do 'read' like 'typical Soviet military history'), and that's when I always get a bad feeling....
Would you be willing to share their names please?
Technical question: Does the ATACMS require some longer special training or if a crew can use the HIMARS pods it's just a few days of extra training.
I ask because yesterday came out a bipartisan resolution which not just support sending them but calls Biden to do. My little itching toe says that soon they will be there. (hopefully just like the Storm Shadows - oh, did we forget to tell it before? Sorry, our bad.)
Really, no trace of clue. For me, that's 'NATO' and thus 'none of my business'.
Don't get me wrong, please: not that I wouldn't be interested. But, for more than 35 years, I've actually 'specialised' in 'Soviet/Russian clients' in Africa and the Middle East, and ('only') since Syria of 2015 'into Russians' (as can be seen by topics to which I've published, too: https://www.helion.co.uk/people/tom-cooper.php?sid=c686f9cb84b2910bde2c625c00e9b9a1).
That's 'more than enough', and keeping me so busy, I do not have the time for 'NATO', too.
I guess there must be dozens of well-informed people in the Western social media to know about such details.
Good evening Tom,
I hope all is well!
May I ask about your opinion concerning the latest Prigozhin message and the subsequent Twitter hyperventilation. Of course I understand, if your response is, that your time would be wasted, commenting such nonsense 😊 (e.g. the associated video appears clearly staged to my amateur eyes).
I just can't get enough of the news from Russia. 🍿 I hope ZSU will take advantage of the confusion of the enemy 🤞