Keep an eye on Kursk oblast as well: ZSU is smashing whole ru convoys there now. After ZSU having become “the green” to hit ru terrutory, it will be so much fun there…
And in Belgorod and Briansk People Rebublics as well
With the failure of the battalion tactical group model in 2022, it seems like there is a tendency now on the Russian side for preferring larger organizational structures: for instance, aside from the end of the BTG, we see announcements about the formation of new divisions and the conversion of existing brigades into divisions. Still, at the moment we obviously see a mish-mash of brigades and divisions together at the front. Is there any particular rationale still for preferring the brigade as an operational unit in Russian thought, or is it just that they can't convert all of their brigades into divisional level structures with a snap of the fingers for practical and logistical reasons? Thanks so much for all of your work, Tom! I've read every post for a long time now and have learned a great deal.
BTG was a a garbage defensive formation - literally a division or brigade would be stripped of best elements to generate 1-2 weak battalions lacking in C3, recon and infantry. A move to bigger structures was always in the cards.
As for divisions v brigades, Russians still have independent brigades and even battalions (same as WW2). And a division itself has 3 brigades on average.
Tom, what are you thinking about a new wave of the air/missile war? Has Ukraine achieved the desired level of air protection from Shaheds or should we still wait for 100% results? During the mass attack 31May-1 June, 46 out of 47 were shot down. Should we expect a 100% result? Can it be achievable?
Perhaps my questions aren't clear, so I clarify it. Ukraine shoot down Shaheds with 100% effectiveness in the small Russian attacks but miss out on some Shaheds in the mass attacks. My questions about the mass attack.
To seriously trust official statements of any of belligerent sides is somewhat naive. Both RU and UA propaganda try to overdo own successes. I must admit, back in 2022 UA data was somewhat trust worthy, but now only video and photograph statistics could be trusted. Once again , with dwindling numbers of SAMs in UA possesion, with RU forces taking out more and more UA air defence assets, how could they improve kill ratio? Ok, they have round the clolck situation awareness from NATO, still the territory is too big.
How does that correpond with original question about Shakheds? 90% links are not about it all, not to talk about geolocation of strikes and time stamps as well.
Sure, UA is too big to build up AD umbrella, but if to talk about ru strikes on military objects the only really dangerous tools are UMPKs and Lancents. Shakheds real effectivity is somewhere between 2-5%
Even Kinzhals are used mostly in areas not covered by Patriots, NASAMSes
Shaheeds are mainly taken out by Shorads, Manpads and AAA, which are the main victims of RU strikes. Right, the ones destroyed at front lines are not hunting Shaheeds, but their loss press to bring the ones the guard cities and industrial spots from Shaheeds. Effeciency of Shaheeds? Let's leave it for postwar readearches, not UA officials propoganda.
As per Kinzhals, they are used for any high priority targets, no matter how well they are defended. Nasams are not dangerous, only PAC-3 and S-300V
Apparently all Russian tech is complete trash and swatted easily out of the sky. I have no idea how Russian then manages to hit Ukrainian power plants, apartment buildings and shopping malls.
Many thanks for the update, especially in regards to the Saab 340.
The fact, that adjusting previous assessments is a natural thing to you, underscores the credibility as well as the reliability of your work and character, something rather scarce on planet earth. Happy Sunday to you!
I would not get into details, my estimations are close to yours, but let us say a bit more on artillery side, and a bit less on tanks and other armours. I would say at least 15000 shells a day, and say 2500+ tanks and 5000+ other armours.
But it is not so important, since data is not precise there. More important and I would like to note this for the other readers, ru has political goals of this war, and these goals are achieved on the battlefield as well as informational space, as well as behind the scenes talks.
And there is a crucial point coming, in terms of goals for this year. There would be more such points, but this one is important. In the next one month there would be more pressure on the front lines and info space. So what I see here as increased activity of various mixed messaging, could be both native impact of hearing ru info messaging, and also active actions by dedicated people. I would not point fingers here.
But just to mention, for example the message "both sides are spreading propaganda" is not exactly true. UA is mostly sharing genuine information, just one needs to be able to read between the lines and compare stories. This requires effort of course, that is why it is mostly misunderstood. And there are some, let us say over optimistic estimates, but not outright lies.
The ru on the other hand, neither have a capacity to properly account for things, nor really cares. As it was never a factor in terms of decision making. At least for now.
When I say this I also mean, from what I see, the process of gathering and moving this information along the ranks is entirely different. This can not be changed quickly. In UA army from what I see there was and still is, an effort to get correct information, as a process, not as a one off event.
UA's spreading propaganda. Not as much as Russia but a lot.
Eg If Ukrainian claims were correct, the Russians wouldn't be able to continuously launch glide bombs en masse due to a lack of aircraft.
Eg If Ukrainian claims were left, there would be virtually no attack helicopters left in Russian military (Mi-24/-28/Ka-52)
Eg If Ukrainian claims were correct, we wouldn't be seeing apartment buildings, power plants, shopping malls and some times airbases actually hit by Russian missiles/drones.
Eg If Ukrainian claims are correct, Russia would not longer have a combat capable air defence network and Ukrainians air force could bomb at will.
Please do not bother replying to me in the future, never. You are one of those throwing in crap, in no particular order, just willing to see shit hits as many conversations as possible.
Believe me, I have neither hopes nor expectations to have a meaningful conversation there. So simply do not bother.
Anyone who blindly believes any one side's claims in a war is a naive fool at best. They say truth is first casualty in war.
You realise for example at one stage in late 2023, the Ukrainians had claimed to have destroyed most of S400s stationed in Crimea? Yet somehow they have not regained skies over Crimera.
They have claimed several hundreds of Russian attack helos when Russians only have maybe 360 at start of war - 110 Ka-52, 90 Mi-28 and rest was Mi-24/-35. In reality, only 91 attack helos confirmed destroyed/damaged - real number is probably more but not that many more because they still use attack helicopters.
At start of the war there was Ghost of Kyiv supposedly shooting down numerous Russian aircraft - Truth: that pilot never existed and those shootdowns never occurred.
Ukrainians claimed at least 2 Il-76s full of paratroopers during assault on Antonov Airport- Truth: no wreckage ever discovered.
So yes, Russians lie a lot but Ukrainians lie a lot as well.
It seems like Kremlin has been using a lot of missiles out of frustration with what’s not working on the ground. This kind of maximum effort has to have a limit, I hope.
Yep, blasting civilians with missiles doesn't help Russia's war effort, and encourages more foreign aid to Ukraine, but it does help Russia maintain domestic support for their blood-lust warmongering. Thankfully the Ukrainians are far smarter
Russian weapons are horrifically inaccurate. US government has estimated anywhere from 40% to 60% of Russian "guided" weapons miss.
With some weapons like Kh-22 they will usually miss the target by up to 5 km (these are meant to be nuclear tipped anti-carrier missiles, not conventional land attack). Same with S300 in ballistic mode.
Even dedicated "modern" land attack Iskander is inaccurate - I've seen footage of them hitting empty paddocks.
So when you see an apartment building destroyed, it probably wasn't the target. But when you're blindly lobbing rockets, civilian infrastructure is the main thing you will hit simply cause it's the most numerous type of terrain in a city.
Any kind of long range fire relies on saturation of targets and acquisition. Goal in this instance is to deplete Ukrainian SAMs. Spending a rare Patriot on a Kh55 or even worse a Shahed is inefficient as those missiles are rare.
I do believe that PUDDING and Tapioca may be related in some 'Mysterious' ways:
1) when cooked properly Tapioca is a sweet dish and quite tasty. I am sure that a gourmet chef could make out of PUDDING a sweet dish that may even be quite tasty. That is if the chef is given the appropriate time and ingredients.
2) Tapioca in its raw and natural state contains cyanide (raw cassava root = cyanogenic glycoside) which is toxic and poisonous. PUDDING in his raw and natural is most definitively TOXIC and POISONOUS and is quite DEADLY even with minimal contact (see Hotel windows + falling = rapid deceleration/death).
So Russians are still getting pummelled, their long range fires are useless and large neutralised, their navy is neutralised, their air defences are being dismantled.
At this rate Ukrainians should be ready to smash Russian remnants by August and liberate whole country by end of year.
How on earth Ukraine hasn't won yet against primitive Russian is anybody's guess.
Well, see the situation in northern Kharkiv, not Kursk :)
Keep an eye on Kursk oblast as well: ZSU is smashing whole ru convoys there now. After ZSU having become “the green” to hit ru terrutory, it will be so much fun there…
And in Belgorod and Briansk People Rebublics as well
Thank you very much for your updates!!!
With the failure of the battalion tactical group model in 2022, it seems like there is a tendency now on the Russian side for preferring larger organizational structures: for instance, aside from the end of the BTG, we see announcements about the formation of new divisions and the conversion of existing brigades into divisions. Still, at the moment we obviously see a mish-mash of brigades and divisions together at the front. Is there any particular rationale still for preferring the brigade as an operational unit in Russian thought, or is it just that they can't convert all of their brigades into divisional level structures with a snap of the fingers for practical and logistical reasons? Thanks so much for all of your work, Tom! I've read every post for a long time now and have learned a great deal.
BTG was a a garbage defensive formation - literally a division or brigade would be stripped of best elements to generate 1-2 weak battalions lacking in C3, recon and infantry. A move to bigger structures was always in the cards.
As for divisions v brigades, Russians still have independent brigades and even battalions (same as WW2). And a division itself has 3 brigades on average.
Tom, what are you thinking about a new wave of the air/missile war? Has Ukraine achieved the desired level of air protection from Shaheds or should we still wait for 100% results? During the mass attack 31May-1 June, 46 out of 47 were shot down. Should we expect a 100% result? Can it be achievable?
Perhaps my questions aren't clear, so I clarify it. Ukraine shoot down Shaheds with 100% effectiveness in the small Russian attacks but miss out on some Shaheds in the mass attacks. My questions about the mass attack.
To seriously trust official statements of any of belligerent sides is somewhat naive. Both RU and UA propaganda try to overdo own successes. I must admit, back in 2022 UA data was somewhat trust worthy, but now only video and photograph statistics could be trusted. Once again , with dwindling numbers of SAMs in UA possesion, with RU forces taking out more and more UA air defence assets, how could they improve kill ratio? Ok, they have round the clolck situation awareness from NATO, still the territory is too big.
*laugh out loud*
Try harder.
Any stats about “more and more air def assets” or just a blah blah?
Specially for you, my dear ЦИПсО activist.))) Some of the May hits:
https://t.me/rusich_army/14926 (SA-8)
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/124309 (S-300)
https://t.me/faceofwar/40748 (SA-13)
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/123789 (again SA-13)
https://t.me/vorposte/56016 (SA-19)
https://t.me/anna_news/66466 (Buk-M1)
https://t.me/lost_armour/2925?single ( P-18 radar)
https://t.me/vorposte/56512 (P-19 radar)
Sorry, too lazy to browse more. You can proceed yourself.)))))
How does that correpond with original question about Shakheds? 90% links are not about it all, not to talk about geolocation of strikes and time stamps as well.
Sure, UA is too big to build up AD umbrella, but if to talk about ru strikes on military objects the only really dangerous tools are UMPKs and Lancents. Shakheds real effectivity is somewhere between 2-5%
Even Kinzhals are used mostly in areas not covered by Patriots, NASAMSes
Shaheeds are mainly taken out by Shorads, Manpads and AAA, which are the main victims of RU strikes. Right, the ones destroyed at front lines are not hunting Shaheeds, but their loss press to bring the ones the guard cities and industrial spots from Shaheeds. Effeciency of Shaheeds? Let's leave it for postwar readearches, not UA officials propoganda.
As per Kinzhals, they are used for any high priority targets, no matter how well they are defended. Nasams are not dangerous, only PAC-3 and S-300V
Apparently all Russian tech is complete trash and swatted easily out of the sky. I have no idea how Russian then manages to hit Ukrainian power plants, apartment buildings and shopping malls.
Thanks for the great update!!
Thanks Tom!
Can’t the anti-ship Neptune missiles be adapted to hit land targets like ABs?
Many thanks for the update, especially in regards to the Saab 340.
The fact, that adjusting previous assessments is a natural thing to you, underscores the credibility as well as the reliability of your work and character, something rather scarce on planet earth. Happy Sunday to you!
Russian assault with 4 T-62 tanks https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1797231177624887613 I have also noted the first T-54 has been destroyed.
3 T-54s were already confirmed lost in February and March.
Current confirmed T-54/-55s losses
2x T-54-3 (1 destroyed, 1 damaged and abandoned)
1 x T-54B (destroyed)
3 x T-55A (2 destroyed, 1 damaged)
3x Unidentified T-54/-55 (2 destroyed, 1 damaged and abandoned)
Dear Tom, thanks for update!
I would not get into details, my estimations are close to yours, but let us say a bit more on artillery side, and a bit less on tanks and other armours. I would say at least 15000 shells a day, and say 2500+ tanks and 5000+ other armours.
But it is not so important, since data is not precise there. More important and I would like to note this for the other readers, ru has political goals of this war, and these goals are achieved on the battlefield as well as informational space, as well as behind the scenes talks.
And there is a crucial point coming, in terms of goals for this year. There would be more such points, but this one is important. In the next one month there would be more pressure on the front lines and info space. So what I see here as increased activity of various mixed messaging, could be both native impact of hearing ru info messaging, and also active actions by dedicated people. I would not point fingers here.
But just to mention, for example the message "both sides are spreading propaganda" is not exactly true. UA is mostly sharing genuine information, just one needs to be able to read between the lines and compare stories. This requires effort of course, that is why it is mostly misunderstood. And there are some, let us say over optimistic estimates, but not outright lies.
The ru on the other hand, neither have a capacity to properly account for things, nor really cares. As it was never a factor in terms of decision making. At least for now.
When I say this I also mean, from what I see, the process of gathering and moving this information along the ranks is entirely different. This can not be changed quickly. In UA army from what I see there was and still is, an effort to get correct information, as a process, not as a one off event.
UA's spreading propaganda. Not as much as Russia but a lot.
Eg If Ukrainian claims were correct, the Russians wouldn't be able to continuously launch glide bombs en masse due to a lack of aircraft.
Eg If Ukrainian claims were left, there would be virtually no attack helicopters left in Russian military (Mi-24/-28/Ka-52)
Eg If Ukrainian claims were correct, we wouldn't be seeing apartment buildings, power plants, shopping malls and some times airbases actually hit by Russian missiles/drones.
Eg If Ukrainian claims are correct, Russia would not longer have a combat capable air defence network and Ukrainians air force could bomb at will.
Please do not bother replying to me in the future, never. You are one of those throwing in crap, in no particular order, just willing to see shit hits as many conversations as possible.
Believe me, I have neither hopes nor expectations to have a meaningful conversation there. So simply do not bother.
Wow, so you can't handle the truth, eh?
Anyone who blindly believes any one side's claims in a war is a naive fool at best. They say truth is first casualty in war.
You realise for example at one stage in late 2023, the Ukrainians had claimed to have destroyed most of S400s stationed in Crimea? Yet somehow they have not regained skies over Crimera.
They have claimed several hundreds of Russian attack helos when Russians only have maybe 360 at start of war - 110 Ka-52, 90 Mi-28 and rest was Mi-24/-35. In reality, only 91 attack helos confirmed destroyed/damaged - real number is probably more but not that many more because they still use attack helicopters.
At start of the war there was Ghost of Kyiv supposedly shooting down numerous Russian aircraft - Truth: that pilot never existed and those shootdowns never occurred.
Ukrainians claimed at least 2 Il-76s full of paratroopers during assault on Antonov Airport- Truth: no wreckage ever discovered.
So yes, Russians lie a lot but Ukrainians lie a lot as well.
"If you can read this sign, you are within Javelin-range"
It seems like Kremlin has been using a lot of missiles out of frustration with what’s not working on the ground. This kind of maximum effort has to have a limit, I hope.
Yep, blasting civilians with missiles doesn't help Russia's war effort, and encourages more foreign aid to Ukraine, but it does help Russia maintain domestic support for their blood-lust warmongering. Thankfully the Ukrainians are far smarter
Russian weapons are horrifically inaccurate. US government has estimated anywhere from 40% to 60% of Russian "guided" weapons miss.
With some weapons like Kh-22 they will usually miss the target by up to 5 km (these are meant to be nuclear tipped anti-carrier missiles, not conventional land attack). Same with S300 in ballistic mode.
Even dedicated "modern" land attack Iskander is inaccurate - I've seen footage of them hitting empty paddocks.
So when you see an apartment building destroyed, it probably wasn't the target. But when you're blindly lobbing rockets, civilian infrastructure is the main thing you will hit simply cause it's the most numerous type of terrain in a city.
Any kind of long range fire relies on saturation of targets and acquisition. Goal in this instance is to deplete Ukrainian SAMs. Spending a rare Patriot on a Kh55 or even worse a Shahed is inefficient as those missiles are rare.
Thanks Tom this is a very interesting report, I really liked the updated report on the Saab radar planes these should be good for the UAF
I guess one good thing about F-16s is that they will draw Russian cruise missile strikes away from more important targets...
I do believe that PUDDING and Tapioca may be related in some 'Mysterious' ways:
1) when cooked properly Tapioca is a sweet dish and quite tasty. I am sure that a gourmet chef could make out of PUDDING a sweet dish that may even be quite tasty. That is if the chef is given the appropriate time and ingredients.
2) Tapioca in its raw and natural state contains cyanide (raw cassava root = cyanogenic glycoside) which is toxic and poisonous. PUDDING in his raw and natural is most definitively TOXIC and POISONOUS and is quite DEADLY even with minimal contact (see Hotel windows + falling = rapid deceleration/death).
So Russians are still getting pummelled, their long range fires are useless and large neutralised, their navy is neutralised, their air defences are being dismantled.
At this rate Ukrainians should be ready to smash Russian remnants by August and liberate whole country by end of year.
How on earth Ukraine hasn't won yet against primitive Russian is anybody's guess.
Thanks for the update, Tom. Also for check so quick the Swedish mini AWACS refurbished data, rare thing to see that commitment this days.Kudos for it.