31 Comments
Dec 2, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thanks for the analysis. Interesting and understandable. And demonstrates that while F16 is helpful (I assume all such airplanes at least help more than it costs to operativ them) it is the “old fashioned” anti-air craft and artillery that is needed. Sad that this message isn’t understood. As I stated, your analysis is quite understandable. Abbreviation list is helpful, agree on that. (I remember when I read about WW1 in my younger days that history book always used Roman numerals on the Axis side and arabic numerals on the Allied side. But it was usually at a much higher organizational level.)

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Dec 2, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

What a master class on aerial ballistics. Many thanks for that, and hope family issues are actually “fixed”.

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Dec 2, 2023·edited Dec 2, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you. The claims you made in the first part make a lot more sense!

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Thanks for report. I as Ukrainian now feel that it is the hardest period of war, especially this circus in Congress. And Russians produce drones massively. But what is approximate ratio between Ukrainian and Russian drones number?

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Thanks Tom for the article. Over the past six months, it seems that the United States and the West no longer really want the war to end with a victory for Ukraine. It feels like they are just waiting for the Russians to simply crush the Ukrainians with the mass of people and the mass of shells. There is a huge problem with air defense, but no one wants to solve it somehow. But Ukraine cannot itself produce systems such as Patriot. Somehow I don’t want to feel like a Syrian when the Russians dropped bombs with impunity. Although even then no one cared...

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Dec 2, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Thank you Tom, much appreciated. Since you have mentioned F16 in this context I would like to ask - I came across the information, that the F16 that are to be provided to Ukraine are of the MLU type. Would that still limit them to the AIM-120C, or would they be compatible with a more modern / longer reach radar and air-to-air missile systems? Maybe this is a dumb question, but I am really out of my depth when it comes to fighter jets.

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Dec 3, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

You may be the only person I have ever heard say that the F-16 is "limited". Not that I disagree with you (well, much anyway, you really need something with some serious long-ranged weapons to have an effect), but still it's enough to make me snicker.

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Dec 3, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

The F-16 is an excellent morale booster, if nothing else. The optimist in me is excited to see how PSU innovates with it.

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There is a report of a Shahed's HE payload replaced with a 40 kg vacuum bomb.

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Dec 3, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Hi, Tom. Thanks for the second part.

I survived russian FAB-500 attack on Yakovlivka in Kharkiv region, while being in Vysokyi settlement and immediately got my portion of PTSD (I'm fine now). It felt like damn world just exploded under my feet and there is still too much uncertainties in this attack (from my point of view as civillian), except i know it were FAB-500 bombs.

Map shows that i was in about 5-6kms from Yakovlivka, my father in law told that Yakovlivka is about 2kms from Vysokyi. Explosions felts like all of them were right outside the house. I heard recognisable whistles before explosions, saw flashes, whole house were shaking like from extreme earthquake, windows were creaking, but at least not breaks. News said there is 200 damaged houses in Yakovlivka, i saw photos where Yakovlivka is just destroyed to the ground. News said there were "few" or as in some telegram channels, 9 FAB-500, i heard at least 15-20 explosions and loud "bombers sounds" just some 5-10 seconds before distinctive whistles and explosions. I still don't know what the hell it was, maybe our news just lie a little about this situation to make it "softer" for people, but thats my experience. It's very hard to describe just with words. You need to experience all this to understand what I'm talking about.

I was way more far away from explosions than ZSU on frontline, but knowing how "precisious" russians are and all those emotions i felt, i guess i can say i survived this, even if i was, in fact, in safe place. But being just some 200-500 metres from sh*t like this? Holy f*cking hell...

Btw, other people comments focusing only on F-16 and wetting their pants imagining and arguing on how cool this aircrafts will be in "intercepting Su-34" or even in "straight dogfight against soviet era aircrafts" as i saw many times on reddit(and I'm sure that at this point many of them are were really close to culmination), lead me only to one thought:

*Sigh

Westerners...

People don't understand that F-16 will be used mostly in the same way, as PSU using their own aircrafts now - just as another platform to launch some missiles that PSU already have and maybe occasionally intercepting russian missiles on short range. People are really don't understand that PSU has not so many aircrafts left at this point, to be used for most common and even boring job, without all this advanced super duper NATO style "we bomb you to the deepest depths of hell, so only steaming glass left on surface" operations. Thats why PSU need F-16 - just to have more aircrafts than it has now, and F-16 is most common military aircraft in NATO.

And my honest thanks to you, that you at least trying to clarify this to people in your articles. But sigh...westerners...

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Jan 4Liked by Sarcastosaurus

Regarding the winged bombs and the alternative solutions that the Russians resorted to, it can be said that they are a good solution in the current state of war, but it must also be considered that the Russians, in recent months, have received great support from Iran with regard to preparing facilities to manufacture 5 types of Iranian drones, in addition to transferring licenses. For missile production, satellite images have monitored Iranian naval ships in the Caspian Sea transporting a large number of containers to Russia. The Russians are seeking to obtain Iranian short- and medium-range missiles. It has facilitated production between a range of 100 km to 1000 km. Iran has this capacity and can export thousands of missiles in this field. It supported the Houthis in the past and gave them techniques for producing missiles and equipping special production facilities in Yemen. From my point of view, the matter in Ukraine may develop, especially since currently those who support Russia are not only Iran, but North Korea, which is considered a huge warehouse and the largest manufacturer of weapons and ammunition, and China, even if it does not acknowledge this, but Railway trips to Russia have increased in recent months

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