Hello everybody! I’ve got an extremely busy week, so ‘a little bit’ on developments on the frontline in ‘telegraphic’ fashion: - On 17 September, the Russians released 6 Shaheds and 6 cruise missiles: all were claimed as shot down by the PSU.
Thanks, Tom, I wouldn't know what to do without you.
Regarding this war I have a very bleak picture in my mind; but as soon as I read your postings, the world becomes a bright place again, everything seems possible, major successes are lying in wait for celebration.
Thanks for the update. Also, great interview on ukrlife(?). Only realised it was an hour long after I finished watching.
1. The VSRF is said to have ~450k troops in Ukraine. The ZSU are said to have ~750k. Currently, there are maybe 300-350k ZSU troops accounted for. Where is the rest? Why are they constantly outnumbered on all fronts?
2. According to "the internet" F16 has a max payload of 7.7 tonnes(metric) while su24 8 tonnes. Is that correct? Also, do you think it's possible the West will integrate storm shadow with f16, given they managed to do it with su24s?
3. There have been some announcements of swedish cv90 production and a rheinmetal factory. Have those gone beyond words on tv and there is real effort in creating large volume production of heavy equipment for Ukraine?
4. For an outside observer, there seems to be no discernible difference in the quality of officers in the ZSU a year ago and now. E.g. they couldn't coordinate even a full brigade then, they can't now. What is the reason for such low level of aptitude among the officer corps, especially given we routinely see high quality NCOs? Do the best NCOs not want promotion or they are not given it? Does the ZSU have any serious officer academy?
Can any Ukrainians commenting here explain what the utter f*** is your government doing with making a formal complaint to the WTO over eastern nato countries refusal to allow ukrainian grain on their internal markets? 1. WTO can't and won't do anything. 2. Ukraine has no trade treaty with the EU concerning grain. 3. Most of the Ukrainian grain does not fullfill EU standards so it is not even legal to sell it in the first place. 4. Apparently it's all about 600M dollars while Ukraine gets billions upon billions in refugee, military, financial medical support. Tldr, have Zelensky and his hapless crew completely lost their minds? Every one of those countries can block Ukrainian accession to both NATO and the EU forever.
most likely because of corruption and personal ties to this or that "business" interest. Said in other words The State of Ukraine is not about peoples interest, its about personal interest of those in power and around/behind them. It was like that since 1990 and i do not see anything changing soon.
Zelensky by far is not proper person for running the country, he does not have knowledge, education, experience and the team. So you can be sure that this saying "left hand does not know what right hand is doing" is about Ukraine.
It is incredible baseness to blame the country fighting for its mere existence while sitting comfortably in security. You nobody and noname are not fit to blame those who fight for their country.
There's some internal politics at play here, with oligarchs like Achmetov trying to ruin the day.
In short, there's "Zelensky" team that's more pro-US/pro-Poland and there's "Schmychal" (prime minister) team backed by oligarchs that's more pro-German.
It's mostly this second team that's responsible for all the latest weird foreign policy moves.
"The EU has granted Ukraine full trade liberalisation, suspending import duties, quotas and trade defence measures for imports from Ukraine on a temporary basis. This is known as the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) Regulation. These measures first entered into force on 4 June 2022 and were reintroduced for another year on 5 June 2023." So no, the current rules are primarily from 2022 not 2014, two different regimes. That is exactly why the exceptional and temporary preventive measures (below) were adopted. If what is happening now was exactly like in 2014 then this problem wouldn't exist. You are yet again a liar and a halfwit calling someone else a troll.
"The EU is phasing out by 15 September 2023 the exceptional and temporary preventive measures adopted on 2 May 2023 on imports of wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed from Ukraine under the exceptional safeguard of the Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation."
"The exceptional and temporary preventive measures on imports of a limited number of products from Ukraine entered into force on 2 May 2023 and were set to last until 5 June 2023.
The measures concern only four agricultural products – wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed – originating in Ukraine. They exceptional measures are more targeted in terms of scope and will also not apply to sowing seeds. During this period, these products can continue to be released for free circulation in all the Member States of the European Union other than Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The products can continue to circulate in or transit via these five Member States by means of a common customs transit procedure or go to a country or territory outside the EU."
The above ended on 15 September, this much is true. However, none of this states that you must import and must sell internally any food product, regardless of whether it satisfies any legal standards. This is obviously an exaggeration but just to make a clear point, no government can just poison their own people because the EU commission says so. It is much more complicated and full of grey area. There are already 4M tonnes of grain in silos in Poland (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-grain-import-ban-eastern-europeans-eu-backlash/). All that has to be checked, certified etc. not some hillbilly cowboy circus because some German says so. Read something else than just english language news, you can translate form any language.
More importantly, there is a very good reason that officially the EU commission has said nothing of substance yet. That is because this is an utter mess created by the EU itself. Just like migration from Africa etc. However, all these legal deliberations are ultimately completely irrelevant. What is relevant is the entire point of my post, which you are apparently too thick to understand. Why does the Ukrainian government want to die on this hill when it's bugger all money, in the grand scheme of things, and it's strategically idiotic. If Ukrainian politicians continue with this short-term self interest, then pigs will fly before Ukraine joins NATO and the EU. The EU cannot even pacify Hungary, the chances of all 27 members allowing another such country in are absolute 0.
There are not " two different regimes" as you claim, this Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) Regulation is actually based on the 2014 agreement and references it, look in this link in articles 1, 2 & 3.
You really dont know what trolling means, stop using words you do not understand. Yes, it seems that as of 4 days ago, it is legal, my bad. Feel free to wet yourself from excitement that i was late 4 days. However, it is also a fact that no mechanism whatsoever has been created for determining what to do with grain (and a few other produce) that clearly does not satisfy any local and EU requirements. So it is pretty irrelevant that some admin in the EU just says it's legal, when there are countless other laws that say it is not. I guarantee the EU will not take any of those countries to the EU court over this. Latest news is that a mechanism is now "being created". Further confirming everything I wrote.
These are two different regimes, because if you trade under ATM then you will no longer be able to do it when it expires, it is an emergency and temporary. You call it whatever you want, this isn't court and I don't care. Of course it's based on the FTA because that is how every dependent document, contract, agreement works.
For the last time because you are really cognitively challenged, this move by Ukraine is strategically idiotic. There is no scenario where Ukraine will gain in medium to long-term from this. It is highly doubtful that it will even benefit in the short-term. That is why I asked Ukrainians, not a cretin from the internet seeing trolls everywhere, about what is happening internally.
Ukraine grain has not been legal only since four days, you already wrote the EU suspended trade defence measures for imports from Ukraine since 4th June 2022.
You do not seem to understand this is a formal Agreement between EU and Ukraine that overrides local laws since it was re-approved by all EU countries in the decision of the Foreign Affairs Council of 25 May 2023.
Incidentally you have several times claimed Ukraine wheat does not meet EU standards for imported food but there no such standards for Ukraine wheat imports except in your imagination.
EU regulations for grain imports;
Wheat, rye, barley and other grains of the genus Triticum and Secale originating in Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa and the United States must be free from Tilletia indica Mitra.
Wheat, rye and triticale from these countries require a phytosanitary certificate, also for food or feed purposes.
Sadly, we have very little control over our government(s) between elections. Nevertheless, elections work(ed) here - you can see that from the rotation of political powers/parties.
Zelensky may not be a good peace time president, but he and his team are the best in the current circumstances. He stood firm with Ukrainians against the enemy, and was able to achieve an incredible level of real support from all over the world.
With all the news and talks of Ukrainian corruption, it is absolutely better to live in a poor corrupt democracy that in a fascist state where police officers rape arrested civilians and imprison people who come to streets with blank sheets of paper.
I have nothing but admiration for Zelensky. However, from the outside, I have an extremely low opinion of Shmyhal and a few others. Until Achmetov is removed from political influence, there will be a constant sabotage of the state. They did manage to arrest kolomoisky, a good first step, many more to go. Zelensky is but one man and not a dictator, his power has limits.
1. True, I guess the optics of doing it are better than "do nothing and let the EU handle it". Also it's quite common and normal for allies to bicker in front of the WTO, especially the US and EU constantly do it.
2. Yeah but the EU as a whole kind of wants to import Ukraine's grain - to feed Duch cows on the cheap and to free other grain to go to Africa. It just happens that the minority of countries that disagree are the ones who can disrupt and complicate the process.
3. That's mostly Russian propaganda. It's a luducrous idea that the EU would let low-quality food flood the single market and it's up to a few countries, bloggers and interest groups to show it the error of its ways.
4. See point 2
So, to sum up - both Zelenski and the "obstinate three" (Slovakia, Hungary, Poland) are posturing for the domestic audience with symbolic moves. The EU as a whole wants the grain to flow into the single market so it will flow, and any disruptions to that will be dealt with internally via the appropriate EU mechanisms in which Zelenski has no influence.
Yes, these are some valid points. I disagree with the EU as a whole though. The Dutch have no more votes than Poland (in fact have fewer), so there is nothing special about them. The EU has always been about minority of countries demanding changes. That is how all of this has worked since day 1. Please remind me all these times when Germany or France voted for something that was against the interest of their farmers, their citizens, their businesses. The existence of CAP should give you clue as to how far you miss the point here. France have been subsidising national champions for decades against the EU law and so what?
It is a more complicated situation. Transit isn't banned, but Ukrainian oligarchs and western agricorps don't want to send it to Africa or China via the Baltic because that grain becomes too expensive for the global market. So they decided that they will use the war to flood the internal EU market with it, where the prices are higher. However, it is precisely the eastern european countries that are grain producers, not the Dutch. What the EU have done by not extending the embargo and not creating any legal mechanism, is they violated the entire basis of the EU. That is, accepting different countries' interests, building a consensus and setting up processes and procedures, with oversight.
The substandard produce not meant for the EU has nothing to do with Russian propaganda, may be hard to realise if you only listen to english language news. The first time the transit was opened through the EU, early this year IIRC, the grain was labelled as "technical" grain. It's a made up term to put on border documents. It was unfit for human consumption by EU standards, it was essentially rotten. Very little of it was transferred to Germany, do you know why? Feel free to guess. In fact 2 reasons, one germans tested it and refused it. Two, corruption and systemic failure of eastern european countries to properly test and manage it, allowing it to be mixed with "good" grain and sold. That is why the embargo was placed or extended. Only if you understand this, you can understand what is happening today. It is also very well known that the use of chemicals such as pesticides in Ukraine is way above anything acceptable in the EU. You are wrong on this point. Of course not all produce is like that, but when you essentially allow a complete free for all, then corruption on both sides will always have a field day. Trusting Ukrainian documentation, especially today, is like trusting chinese torniquets from AliExpress.
1. Never said otherwise. In fact i stated exactly that, as a reason why they want to sell to the EU market instead of just using the EU as a transit.
2. No, i shall not be your search engine. Metaphorically speaking, move your ass. This one time i will give you starting hints "technical grain", "pesticides slovakia" "UN", "lebanon corn". Have fun.
Please stop pretending like this is some shocking news to you.
Found this when I searched about slovak pesticides, and then adding "factcheck" to the search terms. Of particular note is this:
"The substance whose residue was identified is used in more than 100 countries around the world and until 2020, it was also allowed in the EU. Experts also say that similar findings are not only specific to grain from Ukraine but also to some Slovak products themselves. Still, multiple disinformation actors seized the opportunity to exaggerate the situation and spread anti-Ukrainian sentiment."
Did you go to the slovak website provided in that text? They tested 2 wheat samples, 1 flour sample. The 2 wheat samples had different results, flour sample was clean. That is the exact problem I am describing, everything is mixed and unchecked. You cannot use such produce regardless if a sample in that pile or the other tests clean. It's essentially impossible now to determine what exactly is fine and what is not. As other commenter said, food control is extremely difficult. That is why it has to be controlled, already at source. Also, yes of course bad actors take these cases and use them, but to simply dismiss the problem because it favours russia, is bonkers. It should be clear now from our discussion that there is no real control on either side of the border and corruption is rampant.
The whole "technical grain" thing sounds quite fake. Inventing a new word to avoid customs checks isn't really a thing, otherwise people would be constantly doing it for all kinds of products. On top of that, I have actually heard about "low quality
Ukrainian grain flooding the local market" from exactly the same sources that tell me about millions of Ukrainian casualties, radioactive depleted uranium shells, secret US bioweapons labs, persecuting Russian speakers in Ukraine, ect. But it's not like me or you can go inspect the grain ourselves or become experts on the topic overnight so the truth is hard to establish.
As for interests, it's important to understand why Eastern Europe manufactures so much grain. Wheat farming is very mechanised and allows farming vast land with few workers. On the other hand, while each country decides on its own how to distribute EU farming subsidies, the easiest method to administer it is based on the amount of land worked, and most EE countries do it this way. So wheat farming is optimized for receiving as much EU money as possible while creating as few jobs as possible. I can't speak for other countries but I believe at least in Bulgaria the interests of national farmers usually run counter to the interests of the national economy. Also it's very annoying to see them protest against EU policy when their entire business model is built around EU funding.
Technical grain was a term that was made up at the border. It is officially unknown how it came about. It was a criminal, corrupt operation on both sides of the border. That grain was to be burnt or pelletised. It is illegal to sell uncertified wheat for either human or animal consumption. The rotting grain was in the news for months even last year because of months long delays in exporting it. Of course not all of it was like that but it was all mixed together and called a made up term to avoid sanitary requirements at the border.
There's no word of rotten grain, it's even explicitly stated that it was tested and turned out within standard parameters.
I kind of took more than the reasonable amount of time to factcheck this as I was curious - some friends mentioned "low quality" and didn't mention any details, and they were clearly referring to the same cases you are, but there was not enough detail to their story to factcheck, so you helped me understand what that was about.
Thanks, for further info. This was a big scandal in Poland at the time. Much of the grain corruptly sold is still unaccounted for. In the link you provided it clearly states that the mill will not use it even though they tested some of it. This scandal has still not been fully investigated because the governing party politicians and families were most likely involved in this.
According to the above, the official audit and sample tests showed much of it was unfit for human consumption (1/3 of samples). In the end, when corruption is involved and millions of tonnes, you will find absolutely everything there, it's all mixed together. That is precisely why standards and certifications exist, to prevent such things from happening. Until there are proper formal mechanisms and oversight in place, there cannot be any import, because this circus of corruption is what you get. At the same time, countries such as Poland, have no interest in fixing this. The blame is on all sides, Ukraine, EU, eastern european countries.
Dioxin spread to the European market through Irish meat and Escherichia Coli through Danish cucumber. Control is a complicate process sometimes tricky even in peace time in developed countries. Given the circumstances, we can say than there are no big issues with Ukrainian produce. Moreover, exporters know the rules and if he is new regulation regarding quality, it will be implemented in Ukraine as well, although there is some delay. What doesn't sound good indeed is suing the neighboring countries, as long as they are not the intended market anyway and they allow the transit.
Fully agree. Just a note, those cases you mentioned, because there is control, they were found out and rectified. That's how it should work. If there were normal mechanisms in place for control and oversight of what crosses the border from Ukraine, there would be no issues and simply produce satisfying the standards would be let in, like in previous years. However, the EU has not placed any such mechanisms, essentially removed all trade barriers and told the border countries to sort it all out by themselves. Hence, massive corruption and political upheaval is what came out of this. I am sure the end of this will be the creation of oversight on both sides of the border but until then, suing countries, that were instumental in Ukraine's survival, for PR points, is madness.
As an outside observer the optics look horrendous for Ukraine on this considering just how much Poland and Slovakia have done for them. They should figure out a way of solving this behind private doors. Even if they are legally right, the optics of suing a nation thats given a lot of military, economic and humanitarian aid to you are just terrible.
I will as soon as you learn to read with comprehension, which judging by your comment may take a while. I see no reason to take you seriously, if you cannot even understand what is written in plain, simple language. Maybe pictures would be easier for you but I don't have time to draw.
Thanks again Tom... looks like the grinding will continue... hopefully the incoming mobiks will drop their weapons once they get to the front and keep on walking.
Thank you for the post, but it leaves the question open: If there are no actual "frontline" to break through but trenches and mines and trenches and mines and then again - are there any real chances for the UAF? If they can not move ahead faster than a fighting infantry unit on foot, there will always be more and more trenches and minefields ahead of them as it is easier and faster to deploy those than fighting through a strongpoint. The only way out of this is (IMHO) if the attrition of the VSRF forces are INDEED much higher than that of the UAF. At least four-five times higher, considering the sheer manpower differences, even more if they want to keep the recaptured areas. Without any details, according to your info - is it happening? We don't see much of the western heavy equipment yet - does it mean that there are intact UAF brigades in reserves, hoping that somewhere, sometime there will be a breach without another minefield behind it?
Important is not only quantity of soldiers but also quality and also weapons. Bad soldiers without weapons can run away after first attack, but Izium will be not repetead. If Russia lost all experienced units and most of weapons then UA can continue a little bit faster
I'm going to be the last who denies the endurance and determination of the UAF soldiers. However even the most determined soldier can be blown up by a mine and will be just as dead as an almost-deserter. Quality can balance the inequality in quantity, but only to a point. Also, the main point are the losses. In winter the UAF caused higher losses to the VSRF around Bakhmut than what they suffered - however even those smaller losses made the involved UAF units undeployable. Not mauled, not destroyed, but lost their active fighting capacity. Russia will bring another 180-200k new mobiks/conscripts into the battlefield in a few months. They will be much weaker than a senior, battle hardened UAF unit - but the losses in those units are also filled with new recruits, so their ability scores will also be lower. That's why I asked about the scale difference between the losses. The longer the war lasts, more and more veterans will also be dead - sad, but true.
UA units are maybe not so good as they were at he beginning, but compare to russia there is more training, more rotation. RU units are send with absolute minimum training. There are minimum experienced units because most of units fight until end because of no rotation. UA has more units as russia, but we don't see them fighting, they have rest or training. Russia is loosing now last trained units and in future we will see if it is important or not. I believe in Tom that UA looses are much lower as Russia( more veterans ready to fight), and new UA soldiers are better then new RU.
Again, and sorry to say this - this is true, but only PR without the scales. If a VSRF unit loses 70 from 100 and an UAF loses 50, then the VSRF losses are 40% higher than the UAF's - looks good in the news at first glance. Yet the UAF unit will not be able to fight the next 100 soldier VSRF unit, not even if they are minimally trained mobiks. And the Russian's has the manpower reserves to outnumber these losses.
In a very long time they surely will hit the wall too - but in that very long time it's a question if there remain anybody to fight in Ukraine. If you "win" (IF!), but has gain only a state-sized graveyard, it's hardly a victory. (Before somebody accuses me: no, the solution is not the "peace now", but the better and more effective help.)
Exact number nobody know, but as I understand Tom, Russia looses are more times bigger, so it means 100-500% not 40, but it still can mean UA will hit the wall first, but we are speaking about years, not months, both side has big reserve for mobiks. I think we will first hit wall with weapons or economy. If the looses will continue this way, so in 1 year RU will have no fight ready planes, helicopters.... Russia has only 2 possibilities to win. Usa/ EU will stop /decrease help or China start massive helping russia with everything( economy, weapons, soldiers? ). You are right that we/ west should help more and faster. UA must decided when to talk about peace, but if i will be UA, then the must condition for peace will be UA in NATO or at least USA, UK, Poland soldiers in not occupied UA. Without these soldiers it will be just break before other war.
Both sides are already short on mobilization reserves.
In Ukraine everybody willing to fight has signed a contract and many of them are already dead or disabled. Whoever remains is reserved by businesses (e.g. agricultural or defense workers), hides at home, or has fled the country.
In Russia they are afraid to start another wave of forced mobilization before the elections of 2024. That is why they can hardly recover their losses now.
Interesting discussion. I myself don't believe that you can win a war by being a bit, or even much better on a tactical level. It is enough for the VSRF to be competitive, and they are, and have the regenerative capacity larger than the casualty rate. I don't know if the latter is the case at the moment. Their heavy equipment production is certainly not high enough.
Until the ZSU show they have superior officer corps, superior command staffs, then we will have exactly what we have now, for a very long time.
What means win a war? Free Crimea or defend Kyjiv? Are russia able to get more new units as kill, wounded, surrended? and how do we count 1 specnaz is 2, 3 or 5 mobiks? Can be russia fighting also without heavy weapons only with lancet, mines and 2ww artillery against modern one? How many russia planes are now and also will be ready for fight in future? There is too much questions for which i don't have answers. Tom has answers for some, UA genstab has maybe more infos, but for some there is no answer now. Tom see a big risiko when Bachmut will be hold only by mobiks, in 2-3 months will be also last experienced unit in south destroyed and replaces by mobiks so there will be also chance for UA. Tom don't speak much about similar risiko in UA, yes also there is degradation but probably smaller as by russia. Maybe most of UA officers are good and problem is just russia has to much equipment.
Very fair points, thanks. Ukraine has already won the war as it defended its sovereignty and severed any ties with Russia. I meant, a complete defeat of the VSRF and liberation of all territories, especially Crimea, as it is key to Ukraine's future prospects as a country.
I think you may be treating this too narrowly. Are VSRF mobiks competitive against the ZSU conscripts? Yes, they are. There are about 1M soldiers fighting across both sides, that spetsnaz or vdv, 92nd or 93rd mech will not change the tide of war.
I agree equipment wise. As I stated, it is clear that Russia does not produce enough equipment. That is extremely good news. However, they are likely to still have enough in storage for another year or two.
Interesting question! Unfortunately I'm not able to contribute substantially, because I lack knowledge and experience. But as a compassionate bystander I nevertheless want to express my conviction.
Much as I would love to witness the total collapse of the Russian forces, I still can't believe it. On the other hand I'm absolutely not entitled to speculate about acceptable territorial deals.
All I can say for now is that Ukraine has to be a free and independent country, wholesome and capable to prosper. For certain "the West" will help to achieve it, regardless of ongoing political developments, simply because the Ukrainians have already succeeded in conquering our hearts as the modern torch bearers of freedom. Слава Україні!
I think that is pretty much correct. A big breakthrough like last year is almost certainly not going to happen. Instead Ukraine is degrading the Russian ability to fight by attacking logistics and equipment. Russian soldiers may still be defending the trenches but will have a harder time doing so. Taking them out will be easier and they may be inclined to surrender in small groups. Russian infantry retreat is not much of an option since they may be hit by their own troops.
seeing more surrender is definitely a good sign. It means that IF (!!!!) somehow the UAF manages to cut supply lines (either in larger scale or in smaller sectors), there are the seeds of willingness to do it and in the end that's the goal of destroying the logistics. That's the only way to recapture larger towns like Tokmak or Melitopol. I don't think the UAF would be willing (and would be supported by their own people) to turn them into a Bakhmut-style ruin with tens of thousands of their own people in them.
Thank you for your update Tom. One question though:
As the 72 MRB is completly destroyed cause otherwise they wouldn't get the officers and the two VDV brigades seem to not be in any good shape or even existent at all - what troops are standing in the line behind those or are rather which troop is the 3rd Assault Brigade in combination with the Ukrainian airborne troops going to run into next?
You ever surprise me with you capacity of work. Every update need (IMHO) almost three times researching than writing, but you do the mark time after time, I’m really amazed and need to shout it out! At last, it seems, the old dictum regarding the soldier picking the SOB enemy from his foxhole to the armistice table is still valid, drones or Wunderwaffen aside. Many thanks for all your efforts.
Thank you Tom.
Thanks again Tom for your time. As always this battle is down to the PBI
(The poor bloody infantry)
General Wolff said of the Scottish soldiers he sent in to take the 'impregnable' fortress of Québec "Itsy no great mischief should they fall".
Thanks a lot Tom for tour time
Thanks, Tom, I wouldn't know what to do without you.
Regarding this war I have a very bleak picture in my mind; but as soon as I read your postings, the world becomes a bright place again, everything seems possible, major successes are lying in wait for celebration.
Thanks for the update. Also, great interview on ukrlife(?). Only realised it was an hour long after I finished watching.
1. The VSRF is said to have ~450k troops in Ukraine. The ZSU are said to have ~750k. Currently, there are maybe 300-350k ZSU troops accounted for. Where is the rest? Why are they constantly outnumbered on all fronts?
2. According to "the internet" F16 has a max payload of 7.7 tonnes(metric) while su24 8 tonnes. Is that correct? Also, do you think it's possible the West will integrate storm shadow with f16, given they managed to do it with su24s?
3. There have been some announcements of swedish cv90 production and a rheinmetal factory. Have those gone beyond words on tv and there is real effort in creating large volume production of heavy equipment for Ukraine?
4. For an outside observer, there seems to be no discernible difference in the quality of officers in the ZSU a year ago and now. E.g. they couldn't coordinate even a full brigade then, they can't now. What is the reason for such low level of aptitude among the officer corps, especially given we routinely see high quality NCOs? Do the best NCOs not want promotion or they are not given it? Does the ZSU have any serious officer academy?
Stop writing nonsense about the items you have no idea of.
you stop bulshitting around under each post without adding anything usefull.
LOL! Pot, kettle black :)
Can any Ukrainians commenting here explain what the utter f*** is your government doing with making a formal complaint to the WTO over eastern nato countries refusal to allow ukrainian grain on their internal markets? 1. WTO can't and won't do anything. 2. Ukraine has no trade treaty with the EU concerning grain. 3. Most of the Ukrainian grain does not fullfill EU standards so it is not even legal to sell it in the first place. 4. Apparently it's all about 600M dollars while Ukraine gets billions upon billions in refugee, military, financial medical support. Tldr, have Zelensky and his hapless crew completely lost their minds? Every one of those countries can block Ukrainian accession to both NATO and the EU forever.
most likely because of corruption and personal ties to this or that "business" interest. Said in other words The State of Ukraine is not about peoples interest, its about personal interest of those in power and around/behind them. It was like that since 1990 and i do not see anything changing soon.
Zelensky by far is not proper person for running the country, he does not have knowledge, education, experience and the team. So you can be sure that this saying "left hand does not know what right hand is doing" is about Ukraine.
It is very easy to post calumnies knowing that nobody will punish you for them.
captain obvious on duty.
do you have smth to add or deny backed with facts?
It is incredible baseness to blame the country fighting for its mere existence while sitting comfortably in security. You nobody and noname are not fit to blame those who fight for their country.
Did u forget to take u pills? What r u talking about?
There's some internal politics at play here, with oligarchs like Achmetov trying to ruin the day.
In short, there's "Zelensky" team that's more pro-US/pro-Poland and there's "Schmychal" (prime minister) team backed by oligarchs that's more pro-German.
It's mostly this second team that's responsible for all the latest weird foreign policy moves.
Another pro-Russian bot.
Or one person posting under multiple names.
See my comment above.
Feel free to enlighten everyone.
The Ukraine/EU free trade agreement was signed in 2014.
Ukraine grain currently has exemption from EU standards so it is legal to sell.
I will not waste my time challenging the rest of your trolling
https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/ukraine_en#:~:text=Temporary%20measures%20in%20support%20of,Trade%20Measures%20(ATM)%20Regulation.
"The EU has granted Ukraine full trade liberalisation, suspending import duties, quotas and trade defence measures for imports from Ukraine on a temporary basis. This is known as the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) Regulation. These measures first entered into force on 4 June 2022 and were reintroduced for another year on 5 June 2023." So no, the current rules are primarily from 2022 not 2014, two different regimes. That is exactly why the exceptional and temporary preventive measures (below) were adopted. If what is happening now was exactly like in 2014 then this problem wouldn't exist. You are yet again a liar and a halfwit calling someone else a troll.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_3059
"The EU is phasing out by 15 September 2023 the exceptional and temporary preventive measures adopted on 2 May 2023 on imports of wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed from Ukraine under the exceptional safeguard of the Autonomous Trade Measures Regulation."
"The exceptional and temporary preventive measures on imports of a limited number of products from Ukraine entered into force on 2 May 2023 and were set to last until 5 June 2023.
The measures concern only four agricultural products – wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seed – originating in Ukraine. They exceptional measures are more targeted in terms of scope and will also not apply to sowing seeds. During this period, these products can continue to be released for free circulation in all the Member States of the European Union other than Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. The products can continue to circulate in or transit via these five Member States by means of a common customs transit procedure or go to a country or territory outside the EU."
The above ended on 15 September, this much is true. However, none of this states that you must import and must sell internally any food product, regardless of whether it satisfies any legal standards. This is obviously an exaggeration but just to make a clear point, no government can just poison their own people because the EU commission says so. It is much more complicated and full of grey area. There are already 4M tonnes of grain in silos in Poland (https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-grain-import-ban-eastern-europeans-eu-backlash/). All that has to be checked, certified etc. not some hillbilly cowboy circus because some German says so. Read something else than just english language news, you can translate form any language.
More importantly, there is a very good reason that officially the EU commission has said nothing of substance yet. That is because this is an utter mess created by the EU itself. Just like migration from Africa etc. However, all these legal deliberations are ultimately completely irrelevant. What is relevant is the entire point of my post, which you are apparently too thick to understand. Why does the Ukrainian government want to die on this hill when it's bugger all money, in the grand scheme of things, and it's strategically idiotic. If Ukrainian politicians continue with this short-term self interest, then pigs will fly before Ukraine joins NATO and the EU. The EU cannot even pacify Hungary, the chances of all 27 members allowing another such country in are absolute 0.
There are not " two different regimes" as you claim, this Autonomous Trade Measures (ATM) Regulation is actually based on the 2014 agreement and references it, look in this link in articles 1, 2 & 3.
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32023R1077.
There is nothing in your post to support your your claim selling Ukraine grain in the EU is illegal.
So I will stay with trolling.
You really dont know what trolling means, stop using words you do not understand. Yes, it seems that as of 4 days ago, it is legal, my bad. Feel free to wet yourself from excitement that i was late 4 days. However, it is also a fact that no mechanism whatsoever has been created for determining what to do with grain (and a few other produce) that clearly does not satisfy any local and EU requirements. So it is pretty irrelevant that some admin in the EU just says it's legal, when there are countless other laws that say it is not. I guarantee the EU will not take any of those countries to the EU court over this. Latest news is that a mechanism is now "being created". Further confirming everything I wrote.
These are two different regimes, because if you trade under ATM then you will no longer be able to do it when it expires, it is an emergency and temporary. You call it whatever you want, this isn't court and I don't care. Of course it's based on the FTA because that is how every dependent document, contract, agreement works.
For the last time because you are really cognitively challenged, this move by Ukraine is strategically idiotic. There is no scenario where Ukraine will gain in medium to long-term from this. It is highly doubtful that it will even benefit in the short-term. That is why I asked Ukrainians, not a cretin from the internet seeing trolls everywhere, about what is happening internally.
Ukraine grain has not been legal only since four days, you already wrote the EU suspended trade defence measures for imports from Ukraine since 4th June 2022.
You do not seem to understand this is a formal Agreement between EU and Ukraine that overrides local laws since it was re-approved by all EU countries in the decision of the Foreign Affairs Council of 25 May 2023.
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/meetings/fac/2023/05/25/#:~:text=The%20Council%20approved%20today%2C%20as,other%20trade%20concessions%20to%20Ukraine.
Before the ATM Ukraine agricultural exports to the EU were over $7 Bn per year so why do you claim that would not continue?
My definition of trolling is spreading false information.
Incidentally you have several times claimed Ukraine wheat does not meet EU standards for imported food but there no such standards for Ukraine wheat imports except in your imagination.
EU regulations for grain imports;
Wheat, rye, barley and other grains of the genus Triticum and Secale originating in Afghanistan, India, Iraq, Mexico, Nepal, Pakistan, South Africa and the United States must be free from Tilletia indica Mitra.
Wheat, rye and triticale from these countries require a phytosanitary certificate, also for food or feed purposes.
https://www.cbi.eu/market-information/grains-pulses-oilseeds/buyer-requirements
Sadly, we have very little control over our government(s) between elections. Nevertheless, elections work(ed) here - you can see that from the rotation of political powers/parties.
Zelensky may not be a good peace time president, but he and his team are the best in the current circumstances. He stood firm with Ukrainians against the enemy, and was able to achieve an incredible level of real support from all over the world.
With all the news and talks of Ukrainian corruption, it is absolutely better to live in a poor corrupt democracy that in a fascist state where police officers rape arrested civilians and imprison people who come to streets with blank sheets of paper.
I have nothing but admiration for Zelensky. However, from the outside, I have an extremely low opinion of Shmyhal and a few others. Until Achmetov is removed from political influence, there will be a constant sabotage of the state. They did manage to arrest kolomoisky, a good first step, many more to go. Zelensky is but one man and not a dictator, his power has limits.
I don't track Achmetov and other rich people for quite a while.
Nevertheless, it was Kolomoysky who supported (and probably created) Zelensky as a politician, and it is immoral for Zelensky to imprison him.
Eastern EU countries should support Ukraine with what they can.
Do they support on full their capasity? No
Does Ukraine needs their unfriendly actions?
Rettorical question.
They should loose their mind if they start trade war with Ukraine at this point
1. True, I guess the optics of doing it are better than "do nothing and let the EU handle it". Also it's quite common and normal for allies to bicker in front of the WTO, especially the US and EU constantly do it.
2. Yeah but the EU as a whole kind of wants to import Ukraine's grain - to feed Duch cows on the cheap and to free other grain to go to Africa. It just happens that the minority of countries that disagree are the ones who can disrupt and complicate the process.
3. That's mostly Russian propaganda. It's a luducrous idea that the EU would let low-quality food flood the single market and it's up to a few countries, bloggers and interest groups to show it the error of its ways.
4. See point 2
So, to sum up - both Zelenski and the "obstinate three" (Slovakia, Hungary, Poland) are posturing for the domestic audience with symbolic moves. The EU as a whole wants the grain to flow into the single market so it will flow, and any disruptions to that will be dealt with internally via the appropriate EU mechanisms in which Zelenski has no influence.
Yes, these are some valid points. I disagree with the EU as a whole though. The Dutch have no more votes than Poland (in fact have fewer), so there is nothing special about them. The EU has always been about minority of countries demanding changes. That is how all of this has worked since day 1. Please remind me all these times when Germany or France voted for something that was against the interest of their farmers, their citizens, their businesses. The existence of CAP should give you clue as to how far you miss the point here. France have been subsidising national champions for decades against the EU law and so what?
It is a more complicated situation. Transit isn't banned, but Ukrainian oligarchs and western agricorps don't want to send it to Africa or China via the Baltic because that grain becomes too expensive for the global market. So they decided that they will use the war to flood the internal EU market with it, where the prices are higher. However, it is precisely the eastern european countries that are grain producers, not the Dutch. What the EU have done by not extending the embargo and not creating any legal mechanism, is they violated the entire basis of the EU. That is, accepting different countries' interests, building a consensus and setting up processes and procedures, with oversight.
The substandard produce not meant for the EU has nothing to do with Russian propaganda, may be hard to realise if you only listen to english language news. The first time the transit was opened through the EU, early this year IIRC, the grain was labelled as "technical" grain. It's a made up term to put on border documents. It was unfit for human consumption by EU standards, it was essentially rotten. Very little of it was transferred to Germany, do you know why? Feel free to guess. In fact 2 reasons, one germans tested it and refused it. Two, corruption and systemic failure of eastern european countries to properly test and manage it, allowing it to be mixed with "good" grain and sold. That is why the embargo was placed or extended. Only if you understand this, you can understand what is happening today. It is also very well known that the use of chemicals such as pesticides in Ukraine is way above anything acceptable in the EU. You are wrong on this point. Of course not all produce is like that, but when you essentially allow a complete free for all, then corruption on both sides will always have a field day. Trusting Ukrainian documentation, especially today, is like trusting chinese torniquets from AliExpress.
1) International trade is driven by market prices, not by oligarchs and corruption.
2) We need facts about "rotten" corn and the levels of pesticides.
1. Never said otherwise. In fact i stated exactly that, as a reason why they want to sell to the EU market instead of just using the EU as a transit.
2. No, i shall not be your search engine. Metaphorically speaking, move your ass. This one time i will give you starting hints "technical grain", "pesticides slovakia" "UN", "lebanon corn". Have fun.
Please stop pretending like this is some shocking news to you.
I never investigated the topic, thus I rely on you to provide proofs.
Or you could use the internet that you're using now. I provided you all the tools you need.
https://www.freiheit.org/central-europe-and-baltic-states/imported-grain-ukraine-dubbed-toxic-dubious-actors-spreading-anti
Found this when I searched about slovak pesticides, and then adding "factcheck" to the search terms. Of particular note is this:
"The substance whose residue was identified is used in more than 100 countries around the world and until 2020, it was also allowed in the EU. Experts also say that similar findings are not only specific to grain from Ukraine but also to some Slovak products themselves. Still, multiple disinformation actors seized the opportunity to exaggerate the situation and spread anti-Ukrainian sentiment."
Did you go to the slovak website provided in that text? They tested 2 wheat samples, 1 flour sample. The 2 wheat samples had different results, flour sample was clean. That is the exact problem I am describing, everything is mixed and unchecked. You cannot use such produce regardless if a sample in that pile or the other tests clean. It's essentially impossible now to determine what exactly is fine and what is not. As other commenter said, food control is extremely difficult. That is why it has to be controlled, already at source. Also, yes of course bad actors take these cases and use them, but to simply dismiss the problem because it favours russia, is bonkers. It should be clear now from our discussion that there is no real control on either side of the border and corruption is rampant.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/slovakia-bans-ukrainian-grain-imports-after-finding-unauthorised-pesticide/
I presume their source is probably similar to the one you sent.
https://factcheck.bg/en/war-of-grains-disinfo-about-the-ukrainian-grain-on-the-eastern-front-of-the-eu/
The whole "technical grain" thing sounds quite fake. Inventing a new word to avoid customs checks isn't really a thing, otherwise people would be constantly doing it for all kinds of products. On top of that, I have actually heard about "low quality
Ukrainian grain flooding the local market" from exactly the same sources that tell me about millions of Ukrainian casualties, radioactive depleted uranium shells, secret US bioweapons labs, persecuting Russian speakers in Ukraine, ect. But it's not like me or you can go inspect the grain ourselves or become experts on the topic overnight so the truth is hard to establish.
As for interests, it's important to understand why Eastern Europe manufactures so much grain. Wheat farming is very mechanised and allows farming vast land with few workers. On the other hand, while each country decides on its own how to distribute EU farming subsidies, the easiest method to administer it is based on the amount of land worked, and most EE countries do it this way. So wheat farming is optimized for receiving as much EU money as possible while creating as few jobs as possible. I can't speak for other countries but I believe at least in Bulgaria the interests of national farmers usually run counter to the interests of the national economy. Also it's very annoying to see them protest against EU policy when their entire business model is built around EU funding.
Technical grain was a term that was made up at the border. It is officially unknown how it came about. It was a criminal, corrupt operation on both sides of the border. That grain was to be burnt or pelletised. It is illegal to sell uncertified wheat for either human or animal consumption. The rotting grain was in the news for months even last year because of months long delays in exporting it. Of course not all of it was like that but it was all mixed together and called a made up term to avoid sanitary requirements at the border.
What you describe as the story just does not match what I can read in the few sources where I can find it, like this one:
https://notesfrompoland.com/2023/04/12/poland-orders-checks-on-all-grain-importers-after-reports-of-ukrainian-industrial-wheat-used-in-food/
There's no word of rotten grain, it's even explicitly stated that it was tested and turned out within standard parameters.
I kind of took more than the reasonable amount of time to factcheck this as I was curious - some friends mentioned "low quality" and didn't mention any details, and they were clearly referring to the same cases you are, but there was not enough detail to their story to factcheck, so you helped me understand what that was about.
Thanks, for further info. This was a big scandal in Poland at the time. Much of the grain corruptly sold is still unaccounted for. In the link you provided it clearly states that the mill will not use it even though they tested some of it. This scandal has still not been fully investigated because the governing party politicians and families were most likely involved in this.
https://www-bankier-pl.translate.goog/wiadomosc/Ukrainskie-zboze-w-Polsce-Szokujace-ustalenia-NIK-8613830.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=pl&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp
According to the above, the official audit and sample tests showed much of it was unfit for human consumption (1/3 of samples). In the end, when corruption is involved and millions of tonnes, you will find absolutely everything there, it's all mixed together. That is precisely why standards and certifications exist, to prevent such things from happening. Until there are proper formal mechanisms and oversight in place, there cannot be any import, because this circus of corruption is what you get. At the same time, countries such as Poland, have no interest in fixing this. The blame is on all sides, Ukraine, EU, eastern european countries.
Dioxin spread to the European market through Irish meat and Escherichia Coli through Danish cucumber. Control is a complicate process sometimes tricky even in peace time in developed countries. Given the circumstances, we can say than there are no big issues with Ukrainian produce. Moreover, exporters know the rules and if he is new regulation regarding quality, it will be implemented in Ukraine as well, although there is some delay. What doesn't sound good indeed is suing the neighboring countries, as long as they are not the intended market anyway and they allow the transit.
Fully agree. Just a note, those cases you mentioned, because there is control, they were found out and rectified. That's how it should work. If there were normal mechanisms in place for control and oversight of what crosses the border from Ukraine, there would be no issues and simply produce satisfying the standards would be let in, like in previous years. However, the EU has not placed any such mechanisms, essentially removed all trade barriers and told the border countries to sort it all out by themselves. Hence, massive corruption and political upheaval is what came out of this. I am sure the end of this will be the creation of oversight on both sides of the border but until then, suing countries, that were instumental in Ukraine's survival, for PR points, is madness.
As an outside observer the optics look horrendous for Ukraine on this considering just how much Poland and Slovakia have done for them. They should figure out a way of solving this behind private doors. Even if they are legally right, the optics of suing a nation thats given a lot of military, economic and humanitarian aid to you are just terrible.
"Ukraine has no trade treaty with the EU concerning grain", - well it does, and that's the point.
P.S. Can you at least learn the basics before posting your bullshit here?
I will as soon as you learn to read with comprehension, which judging by your comment may take a while. I see no reason to take you seriously, if you cannot even understand what is written in plain, simple language. Maybe pictures would be easier for you but I don't have time to draw.
Thanks Tom, very good and clear explanation about the challenges Ukraine have and also explains the way they have to progress in there offensiv.
Tom, please check the comments under the
Don's Weekly, 18 September 2023, Part 3
post, your data regarding Ukrainian military budget is false.
Thanks again Tom... looks like the grinding will continue... hopefully the incoming mobiks will drop their weapons once they get to the front and keep on walking.
Thank you for supporting Ukraine. your excellent reports are very often cited in Ukrainian media.
Thanks. Another great update
Thank you for the post, but it leaves the question open: If there are no actual "frontline" to break through but trenches and mines and trenches and mines and then again - are there any real chances for the UAF? If they can not move ahead faster than a fighting infantry unit on foot, there will always be more and more trenches and minefields ahead of them as it is easier and faster to deploy those than fighting through a strongpoint. The only way out of this is (IMHO) if the attrition of the VSRF forces are INDEED much higher than that of the UAF. At least four-five times higher, considering the sheer manpower differences, even more if they want to keep the recaptured areas. Without any details, according to your info - is it happening? We don't see much of the western heavy equipment yet - does it mean that there are intact UAF brigades in reserves, hoping that somewhere, sometime there will be a breach without another minefield behind it?
Sorry if I sound bleak.
Important is not only quantity of soldiers but also quality and also weapons. Bad soldiers without weapons can run away after first attack, but Izium will be not repetead. If Russia lost all experienced units and most of weapons then UA can continue a little bit faster
I'm going to be the last who denies the endurance and determination of the UAF soldiers. However even the most determined soldier can be blown up by a mine and will be just as dead as an almost-deserter. Quality can balance the inequality in quantity, but only to a point. Also, the main point are the losses. In winter the UAF caused higher losses to the VSRF around Bakhmut than what they suffered - however even those smaller losses made the involved UAF units undeployable. Not mauled, not destroyed, but lost their active fighting capacity. Russia will bring another 180-200k new mobiks/conscripts into the battlefield in a few months. They will be much weaker than a senior, battle hardened UAF unit - but the losses in those units are also filled with new recruits, so their ability scores will also be lower. That's why I asked about the scale difference between the losses. The longer the war lasts, more and more veterans will also be dead - sad, but true.
UA units are maybe not so good as they were at he beginning, but compare to russia there is more training, more rotation. RU units are send with absolute minimum training. There are minimum experienced units because most of units fight until end because of no rotation. UA has more units as russia, but we don't see them fighting, they have rest or training. Russia is loosing now last trained units and in future we will see if it is important or not. I believe in Tom that UA looses are much lower as Russia( more veterans ready to fight), and new UA soldiers are better then new RU.
Again, and sorry to say this - this is true, but only PR without the scales. If a VSRF unit loses 70 from 100 and an UAF loses 50, then the VSRF losses are 40% higher than the UAF's - looks good in the news at first glance. Yet the UAF unit will not be able to fight the next 100 soldier VSRF unit, not even if they are minimally trained mobiks. And the Russian's has the manpower reserves to outnumber these losses.
In a very long time they surely will hit the wall too - but in that very long time it's a question if there remain anybody to fight in Ukraine. If you "win" (IF!), but has gain only a state-sized graveyard, it's hardly a victory. (Before somebody accuses me: no, the solution is not the "peace now", but the better and more effective help.)
Exact number nobody know, but as I understand Tom, Russia looses are more times bigger, so it means 100-500% not 40, but it still can mean UA will hit the wall first, but we are speaking about years, not months, both side has big reserve for mobiks. I think we will first hit wall with weapons or economy. If the looses will continue this way, so in 1 year RU will have no fight ready planes, helicopters.... Russia has only 2 possibilities to win. Usa/ EU will stop /decrease help or China start massive helping russia with everything( economy, weapons, soldiers? ). You are right that we/ west should help more and faster. UA must decided when to talk about peace, but if i will be UA, then the must condition for peace will be UA in NATO or at least USA, UK, Poland soldiers in not occupied UA. Without these soldiers it will be just break before other war.
Both sides are already short on mobilization reserves.
In Ukraine everybody willing to fight has signed a contract and many of them are already dead or disabled. Whoever remains is reserved by businesses (e.g. agricultural or defense workers), hides at home, or has fled the country.
In Russia they are afraid to start another wave of forced mobilization before the elections of 2024. That is why they can hardly recover their losses now.
Interesting discussion. I myself don't believe that you can win a war by being a bit, or even much better on a tactical level. It is enough for the VSRF to be competitive, and they are, and have the regenerative capacity larger than the casualty rate. I don't know if the latter is the case at the moment. Their heavy equipment production is certainly not high enough.
Until the ZSU show they have superior officer corps, superior command staffs, then we will have exactly what we have now, for a very long time.
What means win a war? Free Crimea or defend Kyjiv? Are russia able to get more new units as kill, wounded, surrended? and how do we count 1 specnaz is 2, 3 or 5 mobiks? Can be russia fighting also without heavy weapons only with lancet, mines and 2ww artillery against modern one? How many russia planes are now and also will be ready for fight in future? There is too much questions for which i don't have answers. Tom has answers for some, UA genstab has maybe more infos, but for some there is no answer now. Tom see a big risiko when Bachmut will be hold only by mobiks, in 2-3 months will be also last experienced unit in south destroyed and replaces by mobiks so there will be also chance for UA. Tom don't speak much about similar risiko in UA, yes also there is degradation but probably smaller as by russia. Maybe most of UA officers are good and problem is just russia has to much equipment.
Very fair points, thanks. Ukraine has already won the war as it defended its sovereignty and severed any ties with Russia. I meant, a complete defeat of the VSRF and liberation of all territories, especially Crimea, as it is key to Ukraine's future prospects as a country.
I think you may be treating this too narrowly. Are VSRF mobiks competitive against the ZSU conscripts? Yes, they are. There are about 1M soldiers fighting across both sides, that spetsnaz or vdv, 92nd or 93rd mech will not change the tide of war.
I agree equipment wise. As I stated, it is clear that Russia does not produce enough equipment. That is extremely good news. However, they are likely to still have enough in storage for another year or two.
"What means win a war?"
Interesting question! Unfortunately I'm not able to contribute substantially, because I lack knowledge and experience. But as a compassionate bystander I nevertheless want to express my conviction.
Much as I would love to witness the total collapse of the Russian forces, I still can't believe it. On the other hand I'm absolutely not entitled to speculate about acceptable territorial deals.
All I can say for now is that Ukraine has to be a free and independent country, wholesome and capable to prosper. For certain "the West" will help to achieve it, regardless of ongoing political developments, simply because the Ukrainians have already succeeded in conquering our hearts as the modern torch bearers of freedom. Слава Україні!
I think that is pretty much correct. A big breakthrough like last year is almost certainly not going to happen. Instead Ukraine is degrading the Russian ability to fight by attacking logistics and equipment. Russian soldiers may still be defending the trenches but will have a harder time doing so. Taking them out will be easier and they may be inclined to surrender in small groups. Russian infantry retreat is not much of an option since they may be hit by their own troops.
seeing more surrender is definitely a good sign. It means that IF (!!!!) somehow the UAF manages to cut supply lines (either in larger scale or in smaller sectors), there are the seeds of willingness to do it and in the end that's the goal of destroying the logistics. That's the only way to recapture larger towns like Tokmak or Melitopol. I don't think the UAF would be willing (and would be supported by their own people) to turn them into a Bakhmut-style ruin with tens of thousands of their own people in them.
Thank you for your update Tom. One question though:
As the 72 MRB is completly destroyed cause otherwise they wouldn't get the officers and the two VDV brigades seem to not be in any good shape or even existent at all - what troops are standing in the line behind those or are rather which troop is the 3rd Assault Brigade in combination with the Ukrainian airborne troops going to run into next?
Thanks Tom
You ever surprise me with you capacity of work. Every update need (IMHO) almost three times researching than writing, but you do the mark time after time, I’m really amazed and need to shout it out! At last, it seems, the old dictum regarding the soldier picking the SOB enemy from his foxhole to the armistice table is still valid, drones or Wunderwaffen aside. Many thanks for all your efforts.