Ukrainians are skeptical and a litle pesimist on the big life story just like all Eastern Europeans.
They don't believe the good stories and government communicates. That's why they have a passion for Western and Gerrman things, which they associate with trust and thuthfulness.
Telling bad news and assuming responsibilty is normal în Ukrainian private life.
The problem is the society dominated by oligarchs, where one can screw up and still keep his position. Because he can negociate with other oligarchs and pay them or threaten with some bad consequences if they don't comply.
Next to nobody believes the TV. People laugh at Gordon and despise Arestovich.
The TV is in a war-time mode, completely controlled by the government. And if an opposition voice becomes too loud, they first take away their license, and if they continue investigations, they may end up mobilized to the army or in jail being accused of treason. This is exactly how the government reacted to the investigation which uncovered that the food for the army was bought at triple price in 2022. The MoD wrote that the investigator demoralized the society and was a Russian spy.
Of course we should help. Nothing of what Tom has written here changes that, but it would be nice to see some learning taking place and some changes being addressed.
Zelensky is the problem. Indeed: he's the core of the problem.
It's his job to fire the Glavcom and force a reform of the ZSU. He's refusing to do either.
With him refusing to do either, the Glavcom and the GenStab-U have no incentive to reform: on the contrary, they are feeling free to continue BS-itting without an end. Because they are unaccountable and irresponsible.
And yes: Budanov, Biletsky etc:: as said, they all have to go. At least the '100+ top generals', probably up to 1,000+.
In order to reform brigades into divisions or to retrain troops, as Biletsky fancifully claims he can do(which military academy did he graduate from, by the way?), one needs to rotate them to the rear first.
This is not even remotely possible.
The entire Russian strategy since the Ukrainian defeat during the Zaporozohye Offensive and the Bakhmut Counter-Offensive in 2023 is to conduct company-level offensive operations across most of the line of contact specifically to disorganise the Ukrainian OOB. The uninterrupted pressure I) prevents the Ukrainians from reorganising or retotating their brigades, II)forces them to rapidly shift whatever few "fire-brigades" they have left from one sector to another, III) attriting the same into increasingly lower states of combat-effectiveness and IV) has forced the Ukrainians to deplete all of their reserves. For IV, see what happened to the Ukrainian Marine Corps after they were defeated in Krynky - the 35th Marine Brigade was redeployed to Kurakhove, the 36th to Vovchansk and Kursk, the 37th to Kurakhove, the 38th to Pokrovsk, and so on and so forth, leading to a situation where the Mykolaiv and Kherson sectors are now almost entirely undefended; even the territorial-defense formations in these regions were sent to the Donbass, like the infamous 123rd from Mykolaiv, which had one of its battalion commanders (186th) commit suicide when his entire battalion deserted a few days after being deployed to Vuhledar because his entire battalion deserted(although, let's be honest - it's more likely that his men fragged him because he had taken issue with them deserting en masse).
Given that Ukrainian brigades are sorted by tier, with most formations composed of elderly men, commanded by officers with zero training except for having graduated from an optional military course in university 20 or 30 years ago while studying to be lawyers or journalists or engineers(a laughable course, even more laughable after the 1980s), which serve no practical purpose other than digging trenches and serving as trip-wire bait for drone units commanded by high-tier brigades, and these high-tier brigades cannot be rotated from the front, it is not possible to spare anyone for re-organisation or re-training.
But even if it was...who is going to re-train them? It's an open secret that both the Ukrainians and the Russians redirected most of their training cadres to infantry battalions back in 2022-2023. Nobody is really trained for over 2 years. In reality, most combatants in this war are just thrown into combat formations after a rudimentary boot camp which usually doesn't even teach the men how to properly service their weapons. It is a sink-or-swim mentality. Rookies are expected to learn from seasoned soldiers in the field, or, if they don't have the smarts and heart for it, to die in a few weeks.
To accomplish what Biletsky wants would require a pause in the fighting for at least several months and probably more like half a year. The Russians aren't going to give Ukraine a pause. So we come back to the first question I asked: what sort of military education does Biletsky have, that he has become an authority on military matters? As far as I know, he has zero military education. He was educated at a History faculty in a civilian university, and then rose to prominance by leading a neo-Nazi football ultra street gang under Avakov's patronage in Kharkiv in street battles against "drug traffickers, illegal street vendors, and illegal immigrants"(translated to English: he was employed by Avakov to dismantle economic enterprises, legal and illegal, which refused to pay protection money, or paid protection money to rival organised crime formations).
To take Biletsky's words seriously, words which basically amount to little more than "everyone is a "faggot"(that's the word he was using every 10 seconds in the interview you posted, but the producers of the YouTube channel decided to translate it as "scoundrel") except for me and are idiots, which is why we're losing, but if I, Ukrainian Napoleon, were in charge, I'd fix everything in a few months", is surreal. He's just engaging in political self-promotion, don't indulge him.
Azov got smashed in Mariupol. I guess his soldiers are not supermen better than every other Russian or Ukrainian unit, as Biletsky kind of claims. He has a perfectly kept beard though.
Quite disheartened by this report, I have to admit. And I don't know how the West can pressure the Ukraine state to become serious in the conduct of the war
Well if you read carefully the interview transcript with Serhiy Filimonov, it seems that in part that approach to training and equipment supplies was demanded by West. At least this what I read between the lines. "We would supply weapons only to those who we train to use them".
But UA has put ineffective commanders without war experience there. Which can be understood, all effective were battling at the front line.
So generally this whole idea of forming new whole units and training someone somewhere was stupid. And ended up in total disaster and waste of time. But this should have been clear from the disaster of 47th already 18 months ago.
The Western help is enormous. It largerly exceeds corresponding help of USSR to Vietnam. Problem is that Western help is underreported and being revealed accidentally.
Like recent US revelation of USD 1.5 bln investment into UA drones program or French already delivered 85 (!!!) Caeser SPHs or never reported but occured South Korea deliveries of ammunition.
Tom wailed about lack of landmines deliveries to Ukraine. Ha-ha, just google a bit. А famous show of trophey UA arms in Moscow attracks mainly attention by captured NATO armour, but only a few pay attention to the numerous types (mainly US) anti-personnel and anti-tank land mines being used by UA army.
It's a bit of a specious comparison in logistics terms though. Vietnam is literally on the other side of the world from the USA. Invading Ukraine is a classic Russian imperialist war. And then there is the serious matter of terrain.
The Us involvement in drones was public knowledge made so by Blinken himself in April. Of course that is a detail. And the point isn’t whether or not is is small or large but whether it is sufficient or insufficient. It may be enormous and still insufficient.
If anything, western aid has been radically over-transparent, and telegraphed to the point that it has often undermined the strategic utility of the very systems provided.
Not institutions, they are democratic by design, but hijacked by oligarchy oriented legislation and in gang of totaly corrupted bureaucrats running those institutions.
Institutions have organisational cultures that might be totally contrary to what is on paper, and that undermines overt laws and rules.
Also most government institutions are not democratic, even in Britain or Germany. This includes everything from heads of many government organisations to the judiciary to indeed thr military.
Then there's the non government institutions such as media, political.partiea, lobby groups and special interest groups.
I actually work for a government organisation in Australia. We have often ignored or misinterpreted rulings by democratically elected ministers because they are clueless idiots whose decisions would makes a mess of things.
In most instances on the planet democratic rule is an illusion designed to placate the masses.
Partially you are right and wrong. I meant state, constitutional institutions like 3 branches of state power which by design are democratic in principle. Democratically elected people don't need to be geniuses, they must supervise people like you to run the institutions in the right direction in the best interest of all people.
I see a lot of positive developments. On the military side I see drones and new weapons. On the civilian side I see a country managing to go through a third winter wit a destroyed power grid. I see a society rising to its challenge. Nothing of this invalidates Tom’s comments.
Perhaps someone should correct me if I have understood this incorrectly, but a regiment is an organizational unit in modern militaries for the most part, not an operational-manuver unit (which is the brigade). So when will the 425th Assault Battalion, now the 425th Assault Regiment, become a brigade? ... and to what Corps will it be assigned? [Apparently, there are no divisions to be organized.]
In Ukraine, as far as I understand (correct me if I'm wrong), a regiment is more or less homogeneous unit consisting of ~3 battalions plus smaller support units (companies, platoons). A brigade is less homogeneous - it can have 4-6 battalions of different specialties and support units sized up to battalion.
For example, an infantry regiment can have 3 infantry battalions, a tank company, AA company, medical platoon, recon platoon, etc. An infantry brigade can have 4 infantry battalions, 1 tank battalion, 1 artillery battalion, medical company, recon company, etc.
I don't know if this applies particularly to Ukraine, but I had thought that the basic manuever unit of a modern infantry force is the brigade (with combat support and combat service units). Regiments have a historic origin and armies such as the UK would have some or all of its battalions assigned to particular manuver units. Possibly this is a matter of semantics. What matters is the specific military force that a regiment or a brigade can bring to a battle.
Under the current government, no military/political reforms will be carried out, nor will there be any attempts to reach an agreement with the aggressor. This is an axiom. A change of this government by constitutional means is also impossible in the foreseeable future. Only madmen can dream of a new "Maidan". So who are the calls for "replacement and reforms" addressed to? By what forces and in what way?
Even Zelensky is promoting "negotiations from a position of strength." So who among us has been brainwashed? What are your proposals for ending hostilities? War to the last Ukrainian or a mass exodus to the West?
If you said A, then say B. Zelensky/Syrsky/Yermak will not leave on their own, and elections will not be held under martial law. All talk of "replacement" leads to a military coup by the Ukrainian captain Gaddafi or lieutenant colonel Abd el-Nasser!
Your pessimistic and depressing comments, although IMHO a realistic description of today's state of the Ukraine gov't, has prompted my pessimism and depression! Now what is left to Ukraine, assuming they can survie the Russian onslaught which frankly I am beginning to believe that they cannot? I perceive that Ukraine's armed forces could never be incorporated into NATO's "STANAG" without fundamental reforms. I am assuming of course that the various NATO militaries, by national groups, essentially are in OK shape. I assume this too for my nation's armed forces--USA--but I cannot know for sure even about this.
Ukraine is fighting a positional war, a war of attrituion, with Russia. IMHO, Russia has staying power. Does Ukraine? Frankly, I don't think so under current conditions. A positional conflict to me is a state that will lead either to Ukraine's total defeat or to a negotiated end to active war to the disadvantage to Ukraine, but not necessarily in the short term to the disadvantage of Western Europe and to the U.S. Note my emphasis placed on "short term." Long term would therefore mean to me the real possibility of a future NATO-Russian war if only based upon future Russian miscalculations regarding a Western including U.S. response to Russian aggressions.
Also, there is the possibility (to what extent?) of a future military conflict between the U.S. and Communist China over Taiwan or the So. China Sea or both due to perceived weakness by China of the West in general and particularly of the U.S. in particular. I consider these possibilities as a long-term vulnerability for the West (and the U.S.) if only because I will likely be dead in the long term!
This leads to another short-term consideration, assuming that a miracle occurs, if/when the politicians in the civilian and military organizations under the Ukrainian national government reform themselves at least somewhat to the level of competence. The short-term is to assess, if it exists, that which Clausewitz termed the "Center of Gravity" of Russia as it pertains to the Russian military assault on Ukraine. First, is there a Center of Gravity for Russia? Second, does a "reformed" Ukraine have the potential to attack Russia's Center of Gravity to bring the war to a conclusion, however temporary or short-termed, with conditions that favor Ukraine? These are big questions!
Thus far, what I have seen described posts in Tom's substack blog, is a Ukrainian attack (this is in addition to the positional defense actions) that is broadly dispersed over Russian military and civilian logistics. I look upon this is as more positional, logistic warfare. I am not suggesting that this is not beneficial to Ukraine's defense, but is it likely to be effective in achieving some sort of beneficial war results to Ukraine in the absense of directly throwing off Russia's military balance on the battle field?
Again, I do not perceive that Ukraine (or even the West) has the ability or the "stomach" to endure in the long-term a positional war of attrittion against the Russian bear. Despite all the talk about the imminent collapse of the Russian economy and its potential, negative effects on Russian war waging, I perceive that Russia has an enormous ability to endure suffering. Suffering in my view is the 8th or 9th quasi sacrament (in this case un-Holy Mystery) of Russia Orthodoxy. ****
Sorry for the long post.
****Some consider the tonsuring of a monk or a nun to be a quasi-8th sacrament of the Russian Church.
1) Sorry but it seems to me you have a misconception about NATO forces. It's rather small ground forces are tailored to the doctrine an overwhelming air force will do the main work and what is left to the "boots on the ground" is just a clean up. So clearly if there is no overwhelming air force the doctrine will simply fail.
2) The situtation for Ukraine isn't completely dark. As a morale booster for you and everyone else a link to an article by Stefan Korshak from today:
Given the current IAD environment on both sides such use of air power doing the main work is not likely. During the NATO-Warsaw Pact era, the NATO war doctrine as I studied it as a student at the U.S. Naval War College, was to fight a "boots on the ground" [armor included!] fighting retreat while NATO engaged in air interdiction of Soviet [mostly higher grade Russian military power] follow-on forces, and while awaiting U.S. reinforcement by air and (mostly) by sea of troops and material/equipment, etc.
Interestingly, NAVWARCOL wargaming produced some pessimistic results regarding such reinforcement. Specifics were classified and not available to us, the officer-students, at Newport, RI.
Maybe they could in terms of sheer manpower, but not in terms of morale, industrial production and economy.
Someone still has to pay. A person can only be used in one function and after being killed, crippled or taken prisoner that person is gone in regard of any function.
2025 will be decisive in which direction the dice will fall with maybe an end in sight with the end of 2026.
If it ends like the Korean war (i.e. no winner, no peace treaty, just an armistice, but back to the original border line) would be great for Ukraine. To make it clear I mean the internationally approved borders of Ukraine.
IMHO there is big difference between NATO doctrine during the cold war and now.
1) During the cold war decades ago I remember a NATO maneuvers where they came to the conclusion that they could stop the Soviets so they decided to use tactical nukes. At that time the NATO had a lot more boots on the ground and by the way Germany could mobilize a lot of soldiers, which is no longer the case. On the other side of the 'iron curtain' there was the complete WP, which now no longer exists.
The representative of the German Federal Government present protested, but this did not change the decision of the exercise management.
Ah and yes during that time the big bridges over the Danube in Austria were also targets for the tactical nukes of NATO.
2) Now with much less boots on the ground on the side of NATO to stop attacking forces I seriously doubt that the NATO doctrine would have worked if NATO would have been in the situation of Ukraine.
Sometime in the early-to-mid 1980s IIRC, the Soviet Union was pushing NATO (aimed particularly at the U.S. perhaps) politically/diplomatically to renounce the first use of tactical nuclear weapons. The reason is that the Soviet Union in its correlation of forces concluded that the Warsaw Pact could prevail in a European war with conventional weapons only. The West of course refused to renounce the first use of nukes.
My original comment in this thread concerned the use of tactical air power as dominating the field of battle in the face of a presumably robust IAD. It was not about confusing Russia as a military power with the former Soviet Union as a military power or by implication equating the characteristics of a NATO-Warsaw Pact war with the Russo-Ukraine War of today.
Also, when we studied at the U. S. NAVWARCOL the development of stragegy & policy vis-a-vis a potential NATO-Warsaw Pact there was some speculation that the forward Warsaw Pact forces provided by the Eastern Europeans under Soviet domination were secondary in quality [including especially motivation of combatants] at best compared with Russian follow-on forces. Thus, the doctrine of fighting a defensive, fighting retreat of land forces while using (more like hoping IMHO!) air-based deep interdiction to degrade the higher quality (Russian) land forces (infantry, armor, etc.).
The main issue remaining for the present war and future wars is air interdiction. Is air interdiction still possible using traditional air assets ... i.e., manned combat aircraft? Drones, smart missiles, etc., seemingly are revoutionizing the face of the air war and interdiction of enemy forces. Even with these considerations, however, the Ukraine war still looks to me basically as an artillery war. It also suggests to me that boots-on-the-ground remain the chief means of winning a war, depending upon one's definition of winning.
Таке відчуття що це робиться навмисно, щоб просто покласти чоловіче населення України в землю, я своїй дружині давно сказав це дивна війна, мій президент та Сирник вони не тупі люди а розумні, і не можуть не усвідомлювати наслідки своїх дій, значить я роблю висновок що це робиться навмисно ними в інтересах бункерного невігласа (((
Доповню, пригадав як був у лагері як тільки приїхав до Німеччини, то одна жінка розповіла що військовий один втік через кордон, до Норвегії і каже що їх обманюють, так не всьому що кажуть вірити треба, але читаючи Тома, робиться всього один висновок, у них є завдання українських чоловіків просто знищити, а як, вони вже показують яким чином вони це реалізовують.
He's a Russian. Multiple core Russian propaganda theses condensed into two paragraphs, most glaringly calling Zelensky "бункерного невігласа" which is only ever used by the Russians butthurt over Putin being called that.
Please - you and everybody else - continue sending links to ALL such reports you can find. I'm collecting everything, and I promise to continue posting on this topic until there is a serious, fundamental reform within the ZSU.
To make sure: I am not affiliated with any kind of political parties or figures (whether in Ukraine or anywhere else): I do not care who is responsible or whatever, and I've got no ideas who should replace the current gangs of incompetents.
I just want this idiotic mismanagement of the ZSU to stop, a major reform to be introduced so that no people get killed because of idiotic commanders. Not only the ZSU troops deserve much better, but too much is at stake but to let Zele, Syrsky & Buddies continue ruining the Ukrainian armed forces.
Honestly, I blame above all, the Americans. The shift from Zaluzhniy's hard nosed pragmatism to a "culture of good news" must have a lot to do with trying to influence the Western commitment level. And the problem is that with the self-evidently senile and vacuous leadership in Washington, it's entirely understandable that the Ukrainians think it is both necessary and possible to deceive them. Corruption and a type of post-Soviet oligarchical hierarchy should have been well known features of the Ukrainian political system when all this began, and even before 2014. The Americans have been in this situation over and over and over again, Zelenskiy is the latest Diem, Chalabi, Karzai etc.. Russia has its own problems but I think Putin has always had a clear eyed sense that the American political class is too intellectually mediocre to play at empire.
That most people don't like a bitter and hard truth is nothing specific for Ukraine. That is just common for the majority of people all over the world.
I also believe that your obsession with 'Soviet' and 'post-Soviet' mentality is a cheap explanation for wider social and political developments. It's been almost 35 years of capitalistic oligarchy, it's time for Eastern Europe to face its own issues without (only) blaming history. For me, mismanagement in Ukraine reminds me of mismanagement everywhere else, or do you think that US generals in Afghanistan did not deliver good news for 20 years? Nor did they do that in Vietnam? What are they doing about the economy in the West? And about climate change? When there's a f*ck up like the LA fires, do they take responsibility?
In psychology it is common knowledge, that most people formed their worldview at the age of ~28 and don't want to change it anymore.
1) RF:
So it just my obsession that they still use that symbols, that they still have the statues of Lenin and Stalin? The former KGB now called FSB still worships Felix Dserschinksy their founder, but that is just my obsession?
The Russians re-erect these statues in the occupied territories of Ukraine, but this is just my obsession?
Stalin gets more and more worshiped as a great and wise leader, but that is just my obsession?
"Gollum" (aka Pudding) calls the downfall of the USSR the biggest tragedy of the 20th century and that is just my obsession?
.............
Really? 😂🤣
2) Ukraine:
So they did take away the statues of Lenin and Stalin, but how much did they change their history books? Of course they did put the holodomor in it, but what did they take out?
What did stay inside the heads of the older generation (30+)?
Do you really think they did throw away everything from the past, including the military doctrine, just because of some oligarchs?
It was a soviet tradition to write false reports, because of the dictatorship they had.
Of course those two countries are not the only countries with mismanagement, but in the former USSR it was endemic.
Actually that is not surprise as it was part of their myth that the communistic party doesn't make any mistakes. So if something did get wrong it was always sabotage and a culprit had to be found and of course was found.
Special topic climate change:
The climate on this planet did change in the past, does change now and will change in the future. That has nothing to do with mankind.
Do you now that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere isn't constant during the year but has a fluctuation with the highest level during winter, when it is cold and the lowest level during summer when it is hot?
"Corruption and a type of post-Soviet oligarchical hierarchy should have been well known features of the Ukrainian political system when all this began, and even before 2014."
Interesting comment that ironically could end up relating to the incipient American oligarchy to become somewhat official tomorrow as a result of Trump's 2nd inauguration as POTUS: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, & Mark Zuckerberg [this is just a start!] who have attached themselves to the winning poker game in town.
What really bothers me the most, is that Zelenskyy seems to genuinely think, that he's the greatest and smartest leader in the Western world. All while being unbelievably mediocre, to be generous to him. Every time he opens his mouth abroad, it's clear he thinks that the foreign leaders, have no other source of information about the war, except from either him or the TV. He doesn't appear to understand that:
1. Every gov in NATO has a whole lot of people, whose only job is to follow the events in Ukraine.
2. Within NATO, loads of civilian and military personnel from all member countries, have regular and direct contact with one another, and exchange information and opinions.
Everybody knows that Ukraine as it is today, will never ever satisfy any of the requirements to join either NATO or the EU. Everyone knows about the shitshow in the ZSU. Everybody knows about their losses, especially in terms of equipment. Everyone knows that the UA industry is completely and utterly worthless. Everyone knows Syrskyi is the embodiment of Luigi Cadorna. Somehow, the only person that doesn't seem to know all this, is Zelenskyy. Yet, he constantly speaks as if it was everybody else who were clueless. Truly, the emperor has no clothes.
Jon Snow, a local fool, tried to serve and fight honestly. For this, he first received a knife from his colleagues, and when he survived and won the war, he was transferred to the wall with a reprimand, because he killed a general who had gone crazy. But Bran, who was injured not for performance, was constantly lying on sick leave, hung out with the limitedly fit Hodor and those who are directly guilty of creating the main enemy, became the commander-in-chief.
Arya - a SF officer with sad eyes, who eventually dragged out the final rink and received a "valuable gift of a thermos" from the command.
Sansa - a typical woman from the regiment, whose depressed mood is due to the very frequent change of infantry battalion commanders.
Tyrion was constantly transferred between units and finally became the post of lock-battalion with the MPZ. He still recalls how, during that assault on fortified positions against a superior enemy force, they fucked up and lost all the assigned Dothraki.
Спасибо Том за ваши труды. К сожелению, наш президент Зеленский слишком тупой, с манией величия лицимер, чтобы читать таких аналитиков, как вы и делать какие-то выводы. Я думаю, будь у него IQ больше 80 - он бы застрелился в прямом эфире на очередном своём пиар интервью. Как многие маленькие люди (антропологически) он обижен на всех ещё похоже с детства, и имея сейчас безграничную власть угнетает свой народ, получая удовольствие как насильник над беспомощной жертвой. Закончит плохо, но успеет убить ещё много своего народа....
How old are you? 5?
Ukrainians are skeptical and a litle pesimist on the big life story just like all Eastern Europeans.
They don't believe the good stories and government communicates. That's why they have a passion for Western and Gerrman things, which they associate with trust and thuthfulness.
Telling bad news and assuming responsibilty is normal în Ukrainian private life.
The problem is the society dominated by oligarchs, where one can screw up and still keep his position. Because he can negociate with other oligarchs and pay them or threaten with some bad consequences if they don't comply.
Everybody cheers yet no one wants to go to the front. Or pay larger taxes. Or host the refugees for free or simbolic fees.
There are many empty houses in villages, and people there would accept refugees. However, nobody proposes that.
I live in Ukraine and I know what happens here.
Next to nobody believes the TV. People laugh at Gordon and despise Arestovich.
The TV is in a war-time mode, completely controlled by the government. And if an opposition voice becomes too loud, they first take away their license, and if they continue investigations, they may end up mobilized to the army or in jail being accused of treason. This is exactly how the government reacted to the investigation which uncovered that the food for the army was bought at triple price in 2022. The MoD wrote that the investigator demoralized the society and was a Russian spy.
At the start of the war nobody knew the facts. Even now the truth is classified.
"laugh at Gordon and despise Arestovich."
Depends on which level of society people belongs. In Russian same applies to Soloviev and Simonyan.
Gordon and Arestovich are popular among russians, but not ukrainians.
Nope. Same freaks as Soloviev.
Of course we should help. Nothing of what Tom has written here changes that, but it would be nice to see some learning taking place and some changes being addressed.
Both Zelensky's office and Ukrainian journalists follow Tom. Whatever he writes infiltrates the Ukrainian infosphere.
I doubt he has means or even desire to stay in power for more than two terms.
Actually, he may benefit from leaving the post-war troubles to another party to build on the popular discontent.
That's exactly what kremlin would very much like to spread among all the mass media around the world. Bravo tovarisch!
Zelensky is the problem. Indeed: he's the core of the problem.
It's his job to fire the Glavcom and force a reform of the ZSU. He's refusing to do either.
With him refusing to do either, the Glavcom and the GenStab-U have no incentive to reform: on the contrary, they are feeling free to continue BS-itting without an end. Because they are unaccountable and irresponsible.
And yes: Budanov, Biletsky etc:: as said, they all have to go. At least the '100+ top generals', probably up to 1,000+.
If it's only 105: great. Then it's 'just' those responsible for doctrine, training, organisation and command who have to be fired.
Reform? Reform how?
In order to reform brigades into divisions or to retrain troops, as Biletsky fancifully claims he can do(which military academy did he graduate from, by the way?), one needs to rotate them to the rear first.
This is not even remotely possible.
The entire Russian strategy since the Ukrainian defeat during the Zaporozohye Offensive and the Bakhmut Counter-Offensive in 2023 is to conduct company-level offensive operations across most of the line of contact specifically to disorganise the Ukrainian OOB. The uninterrupted pressure I) prevents the Ukrainians from reorganising or retotating their brigades, II)forces them to rapidly shift whatever few "fire-brigades" they have left from one sector to another, III) attriting the same into increasingly lower states of combat-effectiveness and IV) has forced the Ukrainians to deplete all of their reserves. For IV, see what happened to the Ukrainian Marine Corps after they were defeated in Krynky - the 35th Marine Brigade was redeployed to Kurakhove, the 36th to Vovchansk and Kursk, the 37th to Kurakhove, the 38th to Pokrovsk, and so on and so forth, leading to a situation where the Mykolaiv and Kherson sectors are now almost entirely undefended; even the territorial-defense formations in these regions were sent to the Donbass, like the infamous 123rd from Mykolaiv, which had one of its battalion commanders (186th) commit suicide when his entire battalion deserted a few days after being deployed to Vuhledar because his entire battalion deserted(although, let's be honest - it's more likely that his men fragged him because he had taken issue with them deserting en masse).
Given that Ukrainian brigades are sorted by tier, with most formations composed of elderly men, commanded by officers with zero training except for having graduated from an optional military course in university 20 or 30 years ago while studying to be lawyers or journalists or engineers(a laughable course, even more laughable after the 1980s), which serve no practical purpose other than digging trenches and serving as trip-wire bait for drone units commanded by high-tier brigades, and these high-tier brigades cannot be rotated from the front, it is not possible to spare anyone for re-organisation or re-training.
But even if it was...who is going to re-train them? It's an open secret that both the Ukrainians and the Russians redirected most of their training cadres to infantry battalions back in 2022-2023. Nobody is really trained for over 2 years. In reality, most combatants in this war are just thrown into combat formations after a rudimentary boot camp which usually doesn't even teach the men how to properly service their weapons. It is a sink-or-swim mentality. Rookies are expected to learn from seasoned soldiers in the field, or, if they don't have the smarts and heart for it, to die in a few weeks.
To accomplish what Biletsky wants would require a pause in the fighting for at least several months and probably more like half a year. The Russians aren't going to give Ukraine a pause. So we come back to the first question I asked: what sort of military education does Biletsky have, that he has become an authority on military matters? As far as I know, he has zero military education. He was educated at a History faculty in a civilian university, and then rose to prominance by leading a neo-Nazi football ultra street gang under Avakov's patronage in Kharkiv in street battles against "drug traffickers, illegal street vendors, and illegal immigrants"(translated to English: he was employed by Avakov to dismantle economic enterprises, legal and illegal, which refused to pay protection money, or paid protection money to rival organised crime formations).
To take Biletsky's words seriously, words which basically amount to little more than "everyone is a "faggot"(that's the word he was using every 10 seconds in the interview you posted, but the producers of the YouTube channel decided to translate it as "scoundrel") except for me and are idiots, which is why we're losing, but if I, Ukrainian Napoleon, were in charge, I'd fix everything in a few months", is surreal. He's just engaging in political self-promotion, don't indulge him.
Azov got smashed in Mariupol. I guess his soldiers are not supermen better than every other Russian or Ukrainian unit, as Biletsky kind of claims. He has a perfectly kept beard though.
They only way then to create an army in the style of a NATO one is to have a NATO one on the ground ….
You are assuming that NATO is much better, especially after a few months of fighting when much of their NCO core had been atrtited.
Quite disheartened by this report, I have to admit. And I don't know how the West can pressure the Ukraine state to become serious in the conduct of the war
Well if you read carefully the interview transcript with Serhiy Filimonov, it seems that in part that approach to training and equipment supplies was demanded by West. At least this what I read between the lines. "We would supply weapons only to those who we train to use them".
But UA has put ineffective commanders without war experience there. Which can be understood, all effective were battling at the front line.
So generally this whole idea of forming new whole units and training someone somewhere was stupid. And ended up in total disaster and waste of time. But this should have been clear from the disaster of 47th already 18 months ago.
Thank you, Tom
"the Western aid is too little...."
The Western help is enormous. It largerly exceeds corresponding help of USSR to Vietnam. Problem is that Western help is underreported and being revealed accidentally.
Like recent US revelation of USD 1.5 bln investment into UA drones program or French already delivered 85 (!!!) Caeser SPHs or never reported but occured South Korea deliveries of ammunition.
Tom wailed about lack of landmines deliveries to Ukraine. Ha-ha, just google a bit. А famous show of trophey UA arms in Moscow attracks mainly attention by captured NATO armour, but only a few pay attention to the numerous types (mainly US) anti-personnel and anti-tank land mines being used by UA army.
https://zvezdaweekly.ru/news/20245151133-0Cgj2.html
The Western aid is mainly obsolete junk delivered in dribs and draws.
USSR gave Vietnamese what they needed to win the war. West gives Ukraine mainly old cast off's.
But the Vietnamese were also well led for most part and had a clear strategy.
The Ukrainians suffer from the same incompetence and corruption the Russians do.
Even if west gave Ukrainians F-35s, AGM-158s, and thousands of M1, M2 etc Ukraine would still be struggling under current regime.
Same applies to Russia.
North Vietnam unlike South Vietnam was never confronted with an invasion.
North Vietnam was also fighting a literal superpower at the height of its military power.
The Russian military is a shadow of what the USSR was and in terms of command competence, not even 1% if the triumphant Soviet Army 0f 1946
It's a bit of a specious comparison in logistics terms though. Vietnam is literally on the other side of the world from the USA. Invading Ukraine is a classic Russian imperialist war. And then there is the serious matter of terrain.
Right, Western help was mainly junk in 22-23, but now it's generally consisting of modern weapons.
Soviet help to Vietnam was rather modest, comparing to the one to Egypt (no SA-3, no "Styx", no T-62, and etc).
Indeed, effiency is the key
The T-62:would have been of virtually no value to Vietnamese for most of war. Sa-3 would have.
However Uktaine still receiving mainly junk - eg main tank currently bring delivered is Leopard I.
The Us involvement in drones was public knowledge made so by Blinken himself in April. Of course that is a detail. And the point isn’t whether or not is is small or large but whether it is sufficient or insufficient. It may be enormous and still insufficient.
Inefficiency, not insufficiency.
If anything, western aid has been radically over-transparent, and telegraphed to the point that it has often undermined the strategic utility of the very systems provided.
The stain of Russia in both its Imperial and Soviet forms runs deep in Ukrainian political institutions.
Not institutions, they are democratic by design, but hijacked by oligarchy oriented legislation and in gang of totaly corrupted bureaucrats running those institutions.
Institutions have organisational cultures that might be totally contrary to what is on paper, and that undermines overt laws and rules.
Also most government institutions are not democratic, even in Britain or Germany. This includes everything from heads of many government organisations to the judiciary to indeed thr military.
Then there's the non government institutions such as media, political.partiea, lobby groups and special interest groups.
I actually work for a government organisation in Australia. We have often ignored or misinterpreted rulings by democratically elected ministers because they are clueless idiots whose decisions would makes a mess of things.
In most instances on the planet democratic rule is an illusion designed to placate the masses.
Partially you are right and wrong. I meant state, constitutional institutions like 3 branches of state power which by design are democratic in principle. Democratically elected people don't need to be geniuses, they must supervise people like you to run the institutions in the right direction in the best interest of all people.
This is a critical situation. The situation isn't that desperate, this is not South Vietnam in its death throes.
Criticism is necessary and justified, but it is not the case that everything about Ukraine is negative.
If criticism is expressed alone, it will ruin morale and that would really be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
I want to remind everyone here, and I mean everyone here, that the common goal is for Ukraine to win and the RF to lose.
I see a lot of positive developments. On the military side I see drones and new weapons. On the civilian side I see a country managing to go through a third winter wit a destroyed power grid. I see a society rising to its challenge. Nothing of this invalidates Tom’s comments.
It isn't about invalidating Tom's comments. It is about also getting some positive comments, so thank you.
A pleasure. And I understand your need. And I try support in small ways.
Well, this one looks positive to me :
https://militaryland.net/news/skala-expands-to-a-regiment-size/
Perhaps someone should correct me if I have understood this incorrectly, but a regiment is an organizational unit in modern militaries for the most part, not an operational-manuver unit (which is the brigade). So when will the 425th Assault Battalion, now the 425th Assault Regiment, become a brigade? ... and to what Corps will it be assigned? [Apparently, there are no divisions to be organized.]
In Ukraine, as far as I understand (correct me if I'm wrong), a regiment is more or less homogeneous unit consisting of ~3 battalions plus smaller support units (companies, platoons). A brigade is less homogeneous - it can have 4-6 battalions of different specialties and support units sized up to battalion.
For example, an infantry regiment can have 3 infantry battalions, a tank company, AA company, medical platoon, recon platoon, etc. An infantry brigade can have 4 infantry battalions, 1 tank battalion, 1 artillery battalion, medical company, recon company, etc.
I don't know if this applies particularly to Ukraine, but I had thought that the basic manuever unit of a modern infantry force is the brigade (with combat support and combat service units). Regiments have a historic origin and armies such as the UK would have some or all of its battalions assigned to particular manuver units. Possibly this is a matter of semantics. What matters is the specific military force that a regiment or a brigade can bring to a battle.
Yes. And it gives the phrase TikTok warriors a new meaning.
Thanks for the update. Are there any chances for reforms?
Under the current government, no military/political reforms will be carried out, nor will there be any attempts to reach an agreement with the aggressor. This is an axiom. A change of this government by constitutional means is also impossible in the foreseeable future. Only madmen can dream of a new "Maidan". So who are the calls for "replacement and reforms" addressed to? By what forces and in what way?
What the agreement with the aggressor do you want to reach? In which way he will kill you? You are brainwashed.
Even Zelensky is promoting "negotiations from a position of strength." So who among us has been brainwashed? What are your proposals for ending hostilities? War to the last Ukrainian or a mass exodus to the West?
My proposals are the same as Tom's ones. Zelensky, Syrsky, Yermak gang of traitors must go away in order for Ukraine to win this war.
If you said A, then say B. Zelensky/Syrsky/Yermak will not leave on their own, and elections will not be held under martial law. All talk of "replacement" leads to a military coup by the Ukrainian captain Gaddafi or lieutenant colonel Abd el-Nasser!
All of that is just your with kremlin morbid imagination. There is no need for elections in order for this gang of criminals to go away.
Btw, there shall be state of war, not matial law which you would know if you have read your own constitution.
Presently: 0.
Your pessimistic and depressing comments, although IMHO a realistic description of today's state of the Ukraine gov't, has prompted my pessimism and depression! Now what is left to Ukraine, assuming they can survie the Russian onslaught which frankly I am beginning to believe that they cannot? I perceive that Ukraine's armed forces could never be incorporated into NATO's "STANAG" without fundamental reforms. I am assuming of course that the various NATO militaries, by national groups, essentially are in OK shape. I assume this too for my nation's armed forces--USA--but I cannot know for sure even about this.
Ukraine is fighting a positional war, a war of attrituion, with Russia. IMHO, Russia has staying power. Does Ukraine? Frankly, I don't think so under current conditions. A positional conflict to me is a state that will lead either to Ukraine's total defeat or to a negotiated end to active war to the disadvantage to Ukraine, but not necessarily in the short term to the disadvantage of Western Europe and to the U.S. Note my emphasis placed on "short term." Long term would therefore mean to me the real possibility of a future NATO-Russian war if only based upon future Russian miscalculations regarding a Western including U.S. response to Russian aggressions.
Also, there is the possibility (to what extent?) of a future military conflict between the U.S. and Communist China over Taiwan or the So. China Sea or both due to perceived weakness by China of the West in general and particularly of the U.S. in particular. I consider these possibilities as a long-term vulnerability for the West (and the U.S.) if only because I will likely be dead in the long term!
This leads to another short-term consideration, assuming that a miracle occurs, if/when the politicians in the civilian and military organizations under the Ukrainian national government reform themselves at least somewhat to the level of competence. The short-term is to assess, if it exists, that which Clausewitz termed the "Center of Gravity" of Russia as it pertains to the Russian military assault on Ukraine. First, is there a Center of Gravity for Russia? Second, does a "reformed" Ukraine have the potential to attack Russia's Center of Gravity to bring the war to a conclusion, however temporary or short-termed, with conditions that favor Ukraine? These are big questions!
Thus far, what I have seen described posts in Tom's substack blog, is a Ukrainian attack (this is in addition to the positional defense actions) that is broadly dispersed over Russian military and civilian logistics. I look upon this is as more positional, logistic warfare. I am not suggesting that this is not beneficial to Ukraine's defense, but is it likely to be effective in achieving some sort of beneficial war results to Ukraine in the absense of directly throwing off Russia's military balance on the battle field?
Again, I do not perceive that Ukraine (or even the West) has the ability or the "stomach" to endure in the long-term a positional war of attrittion against the Russian bear. Despite all the talk about the imminent collapse of the Russian economy and its potential, negative effects on Russian war waging, I perceive that Russia has an enormous ability to endure suffering. Suffering in my view is the 8th or 9th quasi sacrament (in this case un-Holy Mystery) of Russia Orthodoxy. ****
Sorry for the long post.
****Some consider the tonsuring of a monk or a nun to be a quasi-8th sacrament of the Russian Church.
1) Sorry but it seems to me you have a misconception about NATO forces. It's rather small ground forces are tailored to the doctrine an overwhelming air force will do the main work and what is left to the "boots on the ground" is just a clean up. So clearly if there is no overwhelming air force the doctrine will simply fail.
2) The situtation for Ukraine isn't completely dark. As a morale booster for you and everyone else a link to an article by Stefan Korshak from today:
https://stefankorshak.substack.com/p/january-19-day-1060-keeping-current?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=849275&post_id=155170380&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1nk4fy&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Given the current IAD environment on both sides such use of air power doing the main work is not likely. During the NATO-Warsaw Pact era, the NATO war doctrine as I studied it as a student at the U.S. Naval War College, was to fight a "boots on the ground" [armor included!] fighting retreat while NATO engaged in air interdiction of Soviet [mostly higher grade Russian military power] follow-on forces, and while awaiting U.S. reinforcement by air and (mostly) by sea of troops and material/equipment, etc.
Interestingly, NAVWARCOL wargaming produced some pessimistic results regarding such reinforcement. Specifics were classified and not available to us, the officer-students, at Newport, RI.
Maybe they could in terms of sheer manpower, but not in terms of morale, industrial production and economy.
Someone still has to pay. A person can only be used in one function and after being killed, crippled or taken prisoner that person is gone in regard of any function.
2025 will be decisive in which direction the dice will fall with maybe an end in sight with the end of 2026.
If it ends like the Korean war (i.e. no winner, no peace treaty, just an armistice, but back to the original border line) would be great for Ukraine. To make it clear I mean the internationally approved borders of Ukraine.
But nothing is decided yet.
IMHO there is big difference between NATO doctrine during the cold war and now.
1) During the cold war decades ago I remember a NATO maneuvers where they came to the conclusion that they could stop the Soviets so they decided to use tactical nukes. At that time the NATO had a lot more boots on the ground and by the way Germany could mobilize a lot of soldiers, which is no longer the case. On the other side of the 'iron curtain' there was the complete WP, which now no longer exists.
The representative of the German Federal Government present protested, but this did not change the decision of the exercise management.
Ah and yes during that time the big bridges over the Danube in Austria were also targets for the tactical nukes of NATO.
2) Now with much less boots on the ground on the side of NATO to stop attacking forces I seriously doubt that the NATO doctrine would have worked if NATO would have been in the situation of Ukraine.
But that is just my personal opinion.
Sometime in the early-to-mid 1980s IIRC, the Soviet Union was pushing NATO (aimed particularly at the U.S. perhaps) politically/diplomatically to renounce the first use of tactical nuclear weapons. The reason is that the Soviet Union in its correlation of forces concluded that the Warsaw Pact could prevail in a European war with conventional weapons only. The West of course refused to renounce the first use of nukes.
My original comment in this thread concerned the use of tactical air power as dominating the field of battle in the face of a presumably robust IAD. It was not about confusing Russia as a military power with the former Soviet Union as a military power or by implication equating the characteristics of a NATO-Warsaw Pact war with the Russo-Ukraine War of today.
Also, when we studied at the U. S. NAVWARCOL the development of stragegy & policy vis-a-vis a potential NATO-Warsaw Pact there was some speculation that the forward Warsaw Pact forces provided by the Eastern Europeans under Soviet domination were secondary in quality [including especially motivation of combatants] at best compared with Russian follow-on forces. Thus, the doctrine of fighting a defensive, fighting retreat of land forces while using (more like hoping IMHO!) air-based deep interdiction to degrade the higher quality (Russian) land forces (infantry, armor, etc.).
The main issue remaining for the present war and future wars is air interdiction. Is air interdiction still possible using traditional air assets ... i.e., manned combat aircraft? Drones, smart missiles, etc., seemingly are revoutionizing the face of the air war and interdiction of enemy forces. Even with these considerations, however, the Ukraine war still looks to me basically as an artillery war. It also suggests to me that boots-on-the-ground remain the chief means of winning a war, depending upon one's definition of winning.
Таке відчуття що це робиться навмисно, щоб просто покласти чоловіче населення України в землю, я своїй дружині давно сказав це дивна війна, мій президент та Сирник вони не тупі люди а розумні, і не можуть не усвідомлювати наслідки своїх дій, значить я роблю висновок що це робиться навмисно ними в інтересах бункерного невігласа (((
Доповню, пригадав як був у лагері як тільки приїхав до Німеччини, то одна жінка розповіла що військовий один втік через кордон, до Норвегії і каже що їх обманюють, так не всьому що кажуть вірити треба, але читаючи Тома, робиться всього один висновок, у них є завдання українських чоловіків просто знищити, а як, вони вже показують яким чином вони це реалізовують.
Your president? Did you vote for him?
Якщо це питання мені, то я за Порошенка віддав голос свій!
If you are Ukrainian in UA you should see hear and feel by yourself what happens in your country without Tom's help.
Я нікому нічого не повинен, і тим більше країні яка мене двічі викинула на смітник, і я був в Україні під час війни, те що відчував, без допомоги
Тома спокійно обходився, але як то кажуть, одна голова добре а дві краще, тим паче думки у нас збігаються!
He's a Russian. Multiple core Russian propaganda theses condensed into two paragraphs, most glaringly calling Zelensky "бункерного невігласа" which is only ever used by the Russians butthurt over Putin being called that.
The Soviet nuclear scientists that insisted that (rough quote), 'Soviet nuclear reactors do not explode', back in 1986, were no dumb people either.
They just couldn't admit their own mistakes, because that would have been equal to admitting their own responsibility.
Dear Tom, thank you! Two additional links with view on same topic from Sehiy Filimonov, commander of one of the most effective units, Da Vinci Wolves: https://www.pravda.com.ua/columns/2025/01/10/7492889/
https://youtu.be/0ejEmBEEPbA
Thanks, Zenith!
Please - you and everybody else - continue sending links to ALL such reports you can find. I'm collecting everything, and I promise to continue posting on this topic until there is a serious, fundamental reform within the ZSU.
To make sure: I am not affiliated with any kind of political parties or figures (whether in Ukraine or anywhere else): I do not care who is responsible or whatever, and I've got no ideas who should replace the current gangs of incompetents.
I just want this idiotic mismanagement of the ZSU to stop, a major reform to be introduced so that no people get killed because of idiotic commanders. Not only the ZSU troops deserve much better, but too much is at stake but to let Zele, Syrsky & Buddies continue ruining the Ukrainian armed forces.
This war resembles the Winter War. I told you that a couple of years ago, when you compared it to the Iran-Iraq War.
excellent find, thank you. I was always skeptical about Western training.
Honestly, I blame above all, the Americans. The shift from Zaluzhniy's hard nosed pragmatism to a "culture of good news" must have a lot to do with trying to influence the Western commitment level. And the problem is that with the self-evidently senile and vacuous leadership in Washington, it's entirely understandable that the Ukrainians think it is both necessary and possible to deceive them. Corruption and a type of post-Soviet oligarchical hierarchy should have been well known features of the Ukrainian political system when all this began, and even before 2014. The Americans have been in this situation over and over and over again, Zelenskiy is the latest Diem, Chalabi, Karzai etc.. Russia has its own problems but I think Putin has always had a clear eyed sense that the American political class is too intellectually mediocre to play at empire.
That most people don't like a bitter and hard truth is nothing specific for Ukraine. That is just common for the majority of people all over the world.
I also believe that your obsession with 'Soviet' and 'post-Soviet' mentality is a cheap explanation for wider social and political developments. It's been almost 35 years of capitalistic oligarchy, it's time for Eastern Europe to face its own issues without (only) blaming history. For me, mismanagement in Ukraine reminds me of mismanagement everywhere else, or do you think that US generals in Afghanistan did not deliver good news for 20 years? Nor did they do that in Vietnam? What are they doing about the economy in the West? And about climate change? When there's a f*ck up like the LA fires, do they take responsibility?
Soviet Legacy:
In psychology it is common knowledge, that most people formed their worldview at the age of ~28 and don't want to change it anymore.
1) RF:
So it just my obsession that they still use that symbols, that they still have the statues of Lenin and Stalin? The former KGB now called FSB still worships Felix Dserschinksy their founder, but that is just my obsession?
The Russians re-erect these statues in the occupied territories of Ukraine, but this is just my obsession?
Stalin gets more and more worshiped as a great and wise leader, but that is just my obsession?
"Gollum" (aka Pudding) calls the downfall of the USSR the biggest tragedy of the 20th century and that is just my obsession?
.............
Really? 😂🤣
2) Ukraine:
So they did take away the statues of Lenin and Stalin, but how much did they change their history books? Of course they did put the holodomor in it, but what did they take out?
What did stay inside the heads of the older generation (30+)?
Do you really think they did throw away everything from the past, including the military doctrine, just because of some oligarchs?
It was a soviet tradition to write false reports, because of the dictatorship they had.
Of course those two countries are not the only countries with mismanagement, but in the former USSR it was endemic.
Actually that is not surprise as it was part of their myth that the communistic party doesn't make any mistakes. So if something did get wrong it was always sabotage and a culprit had to be found and of course was found.
Special topic climate change:
The climate on this planet did change in the past, does change now and will change in the future. That has nothing to do with mankind.
Do you now that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere isn't constant during the year but has a fluctuation with the highest level during winter, when it is cold and the lowest level during summer when it is hot?
Have a nice day.
"Corruption and a type of post-Soviet oligarchical hierarchy should have been well known features of the Ukrainian political system when all this began, and even before 2014."
Interesting comment that ironically could end up relating to the incipient American oligarchy to become somewhat official tomorrow as a result of Trump's 2nd inauguration as POTUS: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, & Mark Zuckerberg [this is just a start!] who have attached themselves to the winning poker game in town.
What really bothers me the most, is that Zelenskyy seems to genuinely think, that he's the greatest and smartest leader in the Western world. All while being unbelievably mediocre, to be generous to him. Every time he opens his mouth abroad, it's clear he thinks that the foreign leaders, have no other source of information about the war, except from either him or the TV. He doesn't appear to understand that:
1. Every gov in NATO has a whole lot of people, whose only job is to follow the events in Ukraine.
2. Within NATO, loads of civilian and military personnel from all member countries, have regular and direct contact with one another, and exchange information and opinions.
Everybody knows that Ukraine as it is today, will never ever satisfy any of the requirements to join either NATO or the EU. Everyone knows about the shitshow in the ZSU. Everybody knows about their losses, especially in terms of equipment. Everyone knows that the UA industry is completely and utterly worthless. Everyone knows Syrskyi is the embodiment of Luigi Cadorna. Somehow, the only person that doesn't seem to know all this, is Zelenskyy. Yet, he constantly speaks as if it was everybody else who were clueless. Truly, the emperor has no clothes.
Yup, the 'Mubarak Syndrome': a situation where he thinks there's nobody else who is clever enough to do his job.
(By Ruslan Khavriuta):
Game of Thrones is very reminiscent of our army.
Jon Snow, a local fool, tried to serve and fight honestly. For this, he first received a knife from his colleagues, and when he survived and won the war, he was transferred to the wall with a reprimand, because he killed a general who had gone crazy. But Bran, who was injured not for performance, was constantly lying on sick leave, hung out with the limitedly fit Hodor and those who are directly guilty of creating the main enemy, became the commander-in-chief.
Arya - a SF officer with sad eyes, who eventually dragged out the final rink and received a "valuable gift of a thermos" from the command.
Sansa - a typical woman from the regiment, whose depressed mood is due to the very frequent change of infantry battalion commanders.
Tyrion was constantly transferred between units and finally became the post of lock-battalion with the MPZ. He still recalls how, during that assault on fortified positions against a superior enemy force, they fucked up and lost all the assigned Dothraki.
Спасибо Том за ваши труды. К сожелению, наш президент Зеленский слишком тупой, с манией величия лицимер, чтобы читать таких аналитиков, как вы и делать какие-то выводы. Я думаю, будь у него IQ больше 80 - он бы застрелился в прямом эфире на очередном своём пиар интервью. Как многие маленькие люди (антропологически) он обижен на всех ещё похоже с детства, и имея сейчас безграничную власть угнетает свой народ, получая удовольствие как насильник над беспомощной жертвой. Закончит плохо, но успеет убить ещё много своего народа....
Tom, this has been the best thread to date as far as good information and debate. Thank you, and all who contributed.