Hello everybody! Told myself I must sit down and put together an update on what‘s up in Ukraine the last few days… and that ‘despite’ the Israeli ‘counterstrike’ on Iran: this was of such significance, it only - even if indirectly - resulted in me over-spilling my morning mug of cappuccino….
Oh, Andrew's comment reminded me of another question I was going to ask.
Why do Russian bombers (both Su-34 and Tu-22) fall down vertically spinning like winged maple seeds, and not like... a paper plane, for example? I mean following some kind of aero-ballistic parabolic downfall trajectory, which I would naturally expect from an object with some initial horizontal velocity.
En los Sukhois es muy probable que tenga que ver con el diseño del fuselaje característico de los mismos, probablemente generan mucha sustentación cuando caen, haciendo más propenso a entrar en barrena.
En los aviones más grandes (Il-22, Tu-22M) caen igual que los bombarderos pesados de la IIGM, dan vueltas como hojas.
The Suhoi family was built with concept of super maneuverability. In order to have it, a Centre of Gravity should be behind the Centre of pressure. Such aircraft is unstable, flying only if there is electrical and hydrolic pover. After crew ejection, the Centre of Gravity moves even after, and aircraft stall in the flat spin. In case of Tu-22M3, the aircraft got fully 4 crew members ejected, wich also moves CG after, leading to flat stall.
Thanks Tom, could we think that this was for internal consumption? Last night I saw two KC135R and two KC130 deploy for a few minutes and turn off the transponder, from Saudi Arabia and France respectively.
Thanks for good summary. But 1 question to Dzhankoi. S400 was the only system to protect it against drones? I thought that against drones are primary used another systems( Pantsir, machine guns....) and that S400 is too expensive . Or there after first hit so many chaos that nobody was watching on radar or no radar was working any more?
AFAIK, there used to be either 2, or 1 reinforced S-400 SAM-site there (if reinforced: 12 launchers). Plus 2 Buk and 2 Pantsyr sites. Perhaps one Tor site, too.
But, that was at the start of the war. Never found the time to fully update myself to the latest stand - even more so because the PSU was knocking them out much too quick for that.
And yes, I think that with 'radar blown up, everybody scrambling into the panic mode' is something like the most logical conclusion. Contrary to their Pantsyr-, Tor-, and Buk-crews, the Russian S-300/350/400-crews are still not really used to being targeted.
But nope: the Russians are primarily using SAMs against UAVs. Tunguskas are around, sure, but, AFAIK; with the troops, not with VKS units in the rear.
Thanks. This hit also shown us that just 2 ATACMS are able to destroy the best AA in the word S400 and that RU serviceman of the rest system are very far from profesional and looks more as amateur. Just hope there will be more ATACMS attack in near future.
Time to take hundreds of defunct aircraft from US boneyards and scatter them around Ukrainian air bases.
Let them end their lives as decoys. Also, can you imagine the collective freakout on orc social media if F-15s, A-10s, F-18s, and maybe even a B-52 appeared on tarmacs across Ukraine?
I'm a big fan of waving red flags in front of stupid bulls when I'm standing behind a pit filled with sharpened stakes. Come at me, orc. Go ahead.
Question - anyone have a wild guesstimate on how many updated S-200s Ukraine can produce? Watching a Backfire spinning down to the deck was a pleasing way to start a Friday in a world at war.
Then why aren't they widely used already? There are capacity limits to domestic production, and as much or greater need for it to supply decoy Himars launchers, Patriots tanks, and the like.
An external backer can handle all the logistics for a project that moves junk from point A to point B. Why stretch Kyiv's capacity?
They are used already, as far as I know. For example, a moving Himars decoy was used by security service to detect enemy spies (it was followed by radio intelligence car so they could check all suspicious calls in the area - to see if anyone was reporting Himars location). M777 decoys are manufactured in numbers too.
On topic of air defense, I’d love to see a pressure campaign aimed directly at the manufactures (Raytheon and Lockheed in example of Patriot) to either donate some missiles and parts of systems or give a steep discount on some part of the systems. Companies in all other industries have donated quite a lot of money to Ukraine, but these companies who make so much money from the war, give nothing that I know of. Let’s not forget how the market for patriots have grown since they proved they can shoot down Russia’s best missiles. It might not be successful but someone needs to press the conversation. I think a petition or something could be a good start…
Thanks for the update. I am hoping that aside from what the Germans are sending the Dutch offer to just buy some Patriots works out. That would be a big help. FYI, from this side of the pond it seems like there is real momentum on the aid package. Lots of talk and rumors, but it seems that at least some of the GOP finally had the bullshit meter blow and there was a revolt or near revolt that finally got Johnson and rumor has even Trump (to an extent that he seems to have not openly talked against it at least) to let this pass. MAGA causes issues by being that fringe party with just enough clout to mess things up, but they forgot that can also work backwards with other sections doing the same to them. Hopefully this pans out.
Not trying to help Keystone Kops, but watching them choose terror over tactics for two years drives me nuts! But this is another reason why they will lose. Pure rage over a non nation resisting undefeatable Russia.
Video released by Ukr shows 6 ATACMS launched, first two than a group of 4. They also claim to have hit a Fundament-M system in Dzhankoi, so even better than the S-400 if true. The Storm Shadow strike a few days ago in Luhansk is claimed to have killed the chief of signals (comms) of the 59th CAA....Looking forward for Tom's opinion on the "Kosher Kinzhal" booster found in Iraq...
Yesno... not really happy to 'orientate by officially released videos'. Contacts say '2', so sticking to '2'.
And yes, a Fundament-M was knocked out.
Re. Kosher Kinzhals: were ROCKS. Essentially, the ROCKS is the '2nd stage' of the Blue Sparrow - itself developed from a ballistic missile simulator - with a sort of AI guidance system (i.e. guidance comparing INS, GPS, scene-matching and EO). Rafael is advertising it since few years.
The 'strange' thing is just that the ROCKS has no 'second stage' - which in turn means that at least two malfunctioned and crashed in Iraq.
Plot twist: maybe the Ukrainians installed ARH head in the S-200 and Link16 to kill the two A-50 and now the Tu-22. There's certainly enough space inside it.
Plot twist no 2: maybe those two or so S-200 ground impacts shown on video some months ago were not converted to SSMs, but failed/missed shots against RuAF during early combat testing.
These missiles weren't designed for the wars of the 21st century, but for the late 20th century. In the previous century, throwing 1-2 missiles worth a million Eurodollars against a fighter aircraft or helicopter was a fair deal.
Old-fashioned bullets (read: Gepard and its ilk) are much more cost-effective against drones like the Shahed.
Let me ask, Tom, did you skip Tu-22 crash on purpose?
Nope. Just forgot to add it. Have corrected that, meanwhile.
Oh, Andrew's comment reminded me of another question I was going to ask.
Why do Russian bombers (both Su-34 and Tu-22) fall down vertically spinning like winged maple seeds, and not like... a paper plane, for example? I mean following some kind of aero-ballistic parabolic downfall trajectory, which I would naturally expect from an object with some initial horizontal velocity.
En los Sukhois es muy probable que tenga que ver con el diseño del fuselaje característico de los mismos, probablemente generan mucha sustentación cuando caen, haciendo más propenso a entrar en barrena.
En los aviones más grandes (Il-22, Tu-22M) caen igual que los bombarderos pesados de la IIGM, dan vueltas como hojas.
Posiblemente es la verdad, gracias.
The Suhoi family was built with concept of super maneuverability. In order to have it, a Centre of Gravity should be behind the Centre of pressure. Such aircraft is unstable, flying only if there is electrical and hydrolic pover. After crew ejection, the Centre of Gravity moves even after, and aircraft stall in the flat spin. In case of Tu-22M3, the aircraft got fully 4 crew members ejected, wich also moves CG after, leading to flat stall.
Yes, gravity vs pressure centre explanation makes sense.
Though I doubt a couple of crew members have more impact on the Centre of Gravity than a couple of bombs...
That crash sureeee looked like a shoot down ;). It was on fire and spinning straight down.
Republican-Revolutionary, both starts with R. :D
Yup. And who cares if it's IraN or IraQ... both start with 'Ira'....
I bet Irish Republican Army had something to do with it, too.
Was thinking about that, too. See: 'Israel announcing war to the IRA'... 😜
No Wonder auk supports Israel then!
In Croatia we had journalist on national TV that asked is it correct to write Iran or Iraq. :D
If only one of them had kangaroos...
Or Mozart. Or they may say: Saddam or ... erhmm, that turban guy.
The best one so far!
I can’t help myself to have a big laugh 😝
Irish Republican Army sent money for an advertisement. It was the greatest advert campaign in history.
Thanks Tom, could we think that this was for internal consumption? Last night I saw two KC135R and two KC130 deploy for a few minutes and turn off the transponder, from Saudi Arabia and France respectively.
Thanks for good summary. But 1 question to Dzhankoi. S400 was the only system to protect it against drones? I thought that against drones are primary used another systems( Pantsir, machine guns....) and that S400 is too expensive . Or there after first hit so many chaos that nobody was watching on radar or no radar was working any more?
AFAIK, there used to be either 2, or 1 reinforced S-400 SAM-site there (if reinforced: 12 launchers). Plus 2 Buk and 2 Pantsyr sites. Perhaps one Tor site, too.
But, that was at the start of the war. Never found the time to fully update myself to the latest stand - even more so because the PSU was knocking them out much too quick for that.
And yes, I think that with 'radar blown up, everybody scrambling into the panic mode' is something like the most logical conclusion. Contrary to their Pantsyr-, Tor-, and Buk-crews, the Russian S-300/350/400-crews are still not really used to being targeted.
But nope: the Russians are primarily using SAMs against UAVs. Tunguskas are around, sure, but, AFAIK; with the troops, not with VKS units in the rear.
Thanks. This hit also shown us that just 2 ATACMS are able to destroy the best AA in the word S400 and that RU serviceman of the rest system are very far from profesional and looks more as amateur. Just hope there will be more ATACMS attack in near future.
To the shell initiative - despite to the government Slovak People collected 2M€ in 4 days 👍 https://www.municiapreukrajinu.sk/
(CZ government will hele with shells procurement ) BTW so far bigger donation than confirmed Iceland or Slovenia nit talking About SK, HU or FR
That is great. Kudos to them!
Maybe they can buy from Ukrainian manufacturers:
https://kyivindependent.com/denmark-first-to-buy-weapons-for-ukraine-from-ukrainian-manufacturer-in-deal-worth-28-5-million/
Time to take hundreds of defunct aircraft from US boneyards and scatter them around Ukrainian air bases.
Let them end their lives as decoys. Also, can you imagine the collective freakout on orc social media if F-15s, A-10s, F-18s, and maybe even a B-52 appeared on tarmacs across Ukraine?
I'm a big fan of waving red flags in front of stupid bulls when I'm standing behind a pit filled with sharpened stakes. Come at me, orc. Go ahead.
Question - anyone have a wild guesstimate on how many updated S-200s Ukraine can produce? Watching a Backfire spinning down to the deck was a pleasing way to start a Friday in a world at war.
Well, local Ukrainian craftsmen can make decoys faster and cheaper than sending old airframes overseas would be.
Then why aren't they widely used already? There are capacity limits to domestic production, and as much or greater need for it to supply decoy Himars launchers, Patriots tanks, and the like.
An external backer can handle all the logistics for a project that moves junk from point A to point B. Why stretch Kyiv's capacity?
They are used already, as far as I know. For example, a moving Himars decoy was used by security service to detect enemy spies (it was followed by radio intelligence car so they could check all suspicious calls in the area - to see if anyone was reporting Himars location). M777 decoys are manufactured in numbers too.
On topic of air defense, I’d love to see a pressure campaign aimed directly at the manufactures (Raytheon and Lockheed in example of Patriot) to either donate some missiles and parts of systems or give a steep discount on some part of the systems. Companies in all other industries have donated quite a lot of money to Ukraine, but these companies who make so much money from the war, give nothing that I know of. Let’s not forget how the market for patriots have grown since they proved they can shoot down Russia’s best missiles. It might not be successful but someone needs to press the conversation. I think a petition or something could be a good start…
The manufacturers should consider this not as a donation but as a payment for advertisement and battle-testing.
I am sure that some brand-new systems are being beta-tested in Ukraine already...
Like DragonFire.
Thanks for the update. I am hoping that aside from what the Germans are sending the Dutch offer to just buy some Patriots works out. That would be a big help. FYI, from this side of the pond it seems like there is real momentum on the aid package. Lots of talk and rumors, but it seems that at least some of the GOP finally had the bullshit meter blow and there was a revolt or near revolt that finally got Johnson and rumor has even Trump (to an extent that he seems to have not openly talked against it at least) to let this pass. MAGA causes issues by being that fringe party with just enough clout to mess things up, but they forgot that can also work backwards with other sections doing the same to them. Hopefully this pans out.
Quite skeptical myself.
Let's see actions, not more words from Johnson and his ilk first...
That guy on CNN was a trip. But not in a fun way.
Not trying to help Keystone Kops, but watching them choose terror over tactics for two years drives me nuts! But this is another reason why they will lose. Pure rage over a non nation resisting undefeatable Russia.
Terror over tactics is a loosing strategy.
Thanks for the update. Lets hope more airdefense and more artillery is delivered.
Video released by Ukr shows 6 ATACMS launched, first two than a group of 4. They also claim to have hit a Fundament-M system in Dzhankoi, so even better than the S-400 if true. The Storm Shadow strike a few days ago in Luhansk is claimed to have killed the chief of signals (comms) of the 59th CAA....Looking forward for Tom's opinion on the "Kosher Kinzhal" booster found in Iraq...
Yesno... not really happy to 'orientate by officially released videos'. Contacts say '2', so sticking to '2'.
And yes, a Fundament-M was knocked out.
Re. Kosher Kinzhals: were ROCKS. Essentially, the ROCKS is the '2nd stage' of the Blue Sparrow - itself developed from a ballistic missile simulator - with a sort of AI guidance system (i.e. guidance comparing INS, GPS, scene-matching and EO). Rafael is advertising it since few years.
The 'strange' thing is just that the ROCKS has no 'second stage' - which in turn means that at least two malfunctioned and crashed in Iraq.
Looks like THE US HB 8035 finally will get voted into law this weekend. Better late than never?
Even if its voted this weekend, it'll take at least a month before the logistics pipeline starts filling and delivering stuff to Ukraine, I guess
Your right. Maybe it shouldn't happen then. /s
Plot twist: maybe the Ukrainians installed ARH head in the S-200 and Link16 to kill the two A-50 and now the Tu-22. There's certainly enough space inside it.
Plot twist no 2: maybe those two or so S-200 ground impacts shown on video some months ago were not converted to SSMs, but failed/missed shots against RuAF during early combat testing.
Great update thank you.
Thank you for the update Tom. Can Germany produce IRIS-T and the missiles on their own or are they dependent on US components?
according to Wikipedia, this is a 100% European product, but no idea if it includes any US parts:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRIS-T
Yes, of course it can.
The question is if it....erm.. he (Scholtz) might do so.
According to the Wikipedia entry above, Germany has already ordered up to 1200+ IRIS-T missiles as a replacement of the copies going to Ukraine
Great. Might be enough for the next month of fighting in Ukraine....
These missiles weren't designed for the wars of the 21st century, but for the late 20th century. In the previous century, throwing 1-2 missiles worth a million Eurodollars against a fighter aircraft or helicopter was a fair deal.
Old-fashioned bullets (read: Gepard and its ilk) are much more cost-effective against drones like the Shahed.