Hi, Tom. Thank for your endless illustration of russia-Ukraine war. Could you, please, more precisely tell how mitigate or avert the risk of those flying bomds such as FAB500 or UPAB?
That's going to become possible only if the PSU gets enough electronic warfare systems (to suppress Russian electronic countermeasures) and SAMs with effective range of more than 40km.
That's one battalion: Ukraine would need about a dozen - each, of Patriots and NASAMS at least - to properly protect its airspace.
Of course, the PAC-3 system in question could de deployed 'offensively' (close to the frontline) in attempt to curb down the VKS high-alt attacks with PGMs: to cause it a few losses and force it to re-think its tactics etc. But, that's nothing like 'final solution'.
West destroyed 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs. And huge amount of other weapons.
Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS suck. Rus army uses bombs everywhere it want, from Summy along all frontline to Kherson. Approx midnight i heard some powerful bursts, it may be bombs, too powerful for 155m and Grad and Uragan. After them were 1000+ bursts of Grad, mortar mines, different shells - all the night. Couldn't sleep. Worry about remaining glasses in windows. Wider glasses were bursted off long ago. So. Enemy began using bombs - this is the most ominous sign. The end for millions lives, if nothing change. Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS are so trash, that can't even shoot down ancient russian jets, this big targets on radars on 3000-12000m altitudes - most convenient for these anti air systems.
West can not destroy 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs AGAINE. Do i need to EXPLAIN?
West can not destroy 200+ ukrainian balistik rockets with range 15000+ km AGAIN.
West can not destroy 600+ ukrainian cruise missiles AGAIN.
WEst can not destroy thousands ukrainian tanks AGAIN.
West can not hide former prime minister Azarov in Austria with stolen billions $ againe, but of course, as west did 30 years againe and again, west will hide criminals and stolen dozens billions $ againe.
West can not cheat and fool Ukraine again. About that West protected Ukraine so Ukraine NOT need thermonuclear bombs, and normal army in general.
After ocupation Crimea and Donbass West bought russian goods on 2 trillions $. And you NOT think THIS is mistake. West bought russian goods on 350+ billions $ after 24 feb 2022.
And even now West buy russian goods on 15 billions $ / month. And as usual West will help russian fascists. 1992 agression against Georgia and Moldowa, and ocupation. West invested and helped with tecnology, and approved the russian way to democracy!
1994-1996 genocide of chechens, and again West approved THIS.
1999-2000 genocide of chechens again, and West again approve.
2008 agression against Georgia. West approved again.
Did you read my post? All in. Patriot , 2 Nosams, IRIS can not shoot down old russian jets. Moscow use bombs more and more. If not trash - > then russian jets NOT use bombs. Read post Tom Cooper again.
We have too few western air defs, that is a problem! Not that they are bad or uneffective.
And, please, dont blame West, we have enough own fck ups: starting with Kuchma selling military equipment to every interested ending with Zelensky failing to finance Grom production, UAVs supply to ZSU or demining Chongar. Even now dozrns direct FSB spies in SBU were found by NABU and Mr Ze is ziplips about it.
When the War ends, we will all come to him with very unpleasant questions
do you bloody realise that patriot hasn't be installed yet, and that there're no enough batteries? Do you realise nasams/iris-t don't have the range to hit ruzzia's strategic bombers? What are bloody cry baby.
Western TV and blogs are shouting about Patriots during more then year. I do not understand you. You said OPPOSIT what millions blogs wrote during year. Almost every day , 13 months. Do you tell, that ALL this choir, fass and shouting - were and are aaaa.... just lies?! IF, western TV and blogs say about Patriots during more then year almost every day => Ukraine already got DOZENS Patriots. Moscow army widely and often use bombs. So all this dozens Patriots, Nasams, IRISs are TRASH, and suck
You're the screaming one here. If you can't really understand how media works, and read actual public information, then go back to reading comprehension and critical reasoning classes .
Though I think you're a ruzzian shill whose job is to spread fear and distrust.
Hello from Odesa)) We were noisy, air defense was working until 3 o'clock in the morning. They hunted for flying mopeds over the sea. Now we have a lot of rain in the south. Too much. This has not happened for a long time. God says take your time!
Any idea why Ukrainians are not using drones? In the last 6 months I’ve heard some promising rumors and have seen prototypes of small, long range drones but I can’t seem to find any report of them being produced or used
Hm. So that why american army lose to mountaine tribes in Afhganistan and RUN. AND made a present to Taliban on 80 billions $. Huge amount of weapons to taliban.
Thanks once again for your report. As always, more than welcome.
Today there is a lot of information in the media, the first Patriot systems have arrived in Ukraine. Could they help to change the situation you described?
Because one Patriot system - properly placed - can make the life rather hard for the russian aviation in a 150 km circle. For example, place one near Zaporizhya and it covers almost all Zaporizhya region and even parts of Doentsk and Kherson region.
Actually they talked about yesterday that in total there are three Patriot systems now in Ukraine, the Dutch and the US American systems arrived as well.
But in general that was exactly my question - can one (or three) Patriot systems significantly improve the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
Of course, one can 'play' with them. Combine them with other systems; temporarily deploy one or another 'closer to the frontline', to cause problems to the Russians etc. But, none of results are going to last for long enough, and if the war goes on - and it's going to go on, because the golden opportunity to shorten it was missed the last year - the Russians are going to have enough time to adapt (yes, even despite the System Putin).
Thus, the way things are, the safest solution is: the more, the merrier.
Talking about "ongoing war" - do you know military economist Marcus Keupp and his forecast that the war will end in October 2023 the latest due to the material losses of the russian terrorists? What he's saying makes sense to me.
Why do you think Russians are really fucked? From your reports I get the impression they move slowly in the areas they want to engage. Also they have managed to get their air force more active and with the weather improving their UAVs are making an appearance again. Probably they are also preparing for the counteroffensive which is not imminent thus they have time.
Is there a significant issue the Russians have that I may have missed
Because Putin has already squandered his 'best' (the peace-time VSRF), and thus actually lost the conventional deterrent. What's left of the Russian armed forces nowadays is wreckage, fully exposing all the weaknesses of Russia: yes, it's still causing problems to Ukraine, but then because there is stills so much of it.
The only reason Ukrainians didn't liberate their country already 'by Christmas' is the shortsightedness of their own, and all the possible NATO-governments.
1. According to the leaked slides titled "Consolidated UAF Air Defense", NATO has committed 12 Patriot launchers (2 batteries) and one SAMP-T battery as aid. The document is a little unclear, but also seems to estimate that Ukraine - at the end of February - had 28 batteries of S-300 "on hand" (seems very low if 3 TELAR per battery), and that 12 batteries of Patriot/SAMP-T would meet requirements. To replace S-300 coverage, wouldn't the number of long-range batteries need to be double that at least? And moreover, at least a thousand missiles per year?
2. The leaked report further estimates that Ukraine still has a number of S-125 batteries, and that these had 700 missiles in stock. How useful would these be against contemporary Sukhois? The Serbs did score a lucky hit against an F-117 a generation ago, and the platform is of the same generation as the Hawks Ukraine is also receiving.
3. The report also estimates that Ukraine has already exhausted its MANPADs, which seems unlikely. Thoughts?
4. Last spring/summer, GSUA claimed a number of shootdowns against inbound Kh-22. By the end of this year they were adamant that they had no platforms capable of intercepting Kh-22, and well-known presidential advisor Vladimir Arestovich was even sacked for commenting that the Dnipro apartment strike in January was caused by the remnants of a Kh-22 intercept. AFAIK S-300 or Buk should be able to target Kh-22 - but the number of missiles in the salvo needed to assure interception is probably higher than for ALCM. Do you suppose initially Ukraine did intercept Kh-22, but quickly stopped when it became clear how uneconomical the proposition was?
1.) Yes, and 'at mimimum'. Ukraine is huge: so huge that attempting to defend its airspace is like attempting to defend the airspace of the UK, France, and Poland - combined. That's not working with '1 battalion each' of Patriots, NASAMs and IRIS-T...
2.) The S-125 (aka SA-3) remains a very potent SAM - but its effective deployment nowadays is heavily dependent on experience of its operator. Thus, it's really about their Ukrainian crews: if they're 'good', they can be effective; if not, they're useless.
3.) AFAIK, 'exhausted' - are stocks of FIM-92 Stingers. The report didn't calculate all the other MANPADS in service with the ZSU.
4.) The answer is ironic.... even sarcastic and bordering on absurd. The Soviets and then the Russians were claiming that both the S-300 and the Buk were capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Of course, in the case of the S-300, that depended on ammo (i.e. missiles) used by the S-300 (of which there is about a dozen of different variants, only 2 or 3 are capable of doing so). Thus, why should one have doubts Ukrainians at least tried to shot down quasi-ballistic missiles like Kh-22s?
AFAIK, Arestovich was/is wrong with many things, but was right in that case: the PSU did try to shot down that Kh-22 that was going for Dnipro, and the damage was caused by 'wreckage' of an intercepted missile. Problem: one can't simply 'stop' something moving at Mach 4+. But, people were fed up of him, 'in general'....now try to explain them anything in a sober fashion.... he had to go, 'instead'.
If Ukraine started with 250 S-300 launchers for example (a commonly-cited figure), and it's typical to stock 10 missiles per launcher, then at an average rate of 200 missiles/month it would make sense for fewer than 500 to remain after a full year, netting any one-time deliveries from other countries such as Slovakia. Russia probably maintained similar running estimates since last year.
Binkov on YT pointed out that Sea Sparrow compared to 9K37 Buk 9М38 has only 1/3 the weight (230kg vs. 690kg), half the range (20km vs. 35km), and half the operational ceiling (11km vs. 22km), so modifying Buk to carry Sea Sparrow would not replace its full functionality as a mid-range SAM.
It seems to me that Ukraine, both politically and in light of increasing difficulties in air defense, may have 'no choice' but to launch a major offensive before summer, ready or not.
Excuse me, but I cannot find the meaning of UMPK acronym
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/russia/umpk.htm
thank you
Hi, Tom. Thank for your endless illustration of russia-Ukraine war. Could you, please, more precisely tell how mitigate or avert the risk of those flying bomds such as FAB500 or UPAB?
That's going to become possible only if the PSU gets enough electronic warfare systems (to suppress Russian electronic countermeasures) and SAMs with effective range of more than 40km.
What about Patriot system? There was a recent announcement that they are already in Ukraine
That's one battalion: Ukraine would need about a dozen - each, of Patriots and NASAMS at least - to properly protect its airspace.
Of course, the PAC-3 system in question could de deployed 'offensively' (close to the frontline) in attempt to curb down the VKS high-alt attacks with PGMs: to cause it a few losses and force it to re-think its tactics etc. But, that's nothing like 'final solution'.
West destroyed 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs. And huge amount of other weapons.
Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS suck. Rus army uses bombs everywhere it want, from Summy along all frontline to Kherson. Approx midnight i heard some powerful bursts, it may be bombs, too powerful for 155m and Grad and Uragan. After them were 1000+ bursts of Grad, mortar mines, different shells - all the night. Couldn't sleep. Worry about remaining glasses in windows. Wider glasses were bursted off long ago. So. Enemy began using bombs - this is the most ominous sign. The end for millions lives, if nothing change. Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS are so trash, that can't even shoot down ancient russian jets, this big targets on radars on 3000-12000m altitudes - most convenient for these anti air systems.
I hope that this was enough of a lesson for the West never to do it again!
West can not destroy 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs AGAINE. Do i need to EXPLAIN?
West can not destroy 200+ ukrainian balistik rockets with range 15000+ km AGAIN.
West can not destroy 600+ ukrainian cruise missiles AGAIN.
WEst can not destroy thousands ukrainian tanks AGAIN.
West can not hide former prime minister Azarov in Austria with stolen billions $ againe, but of course, as west did 30 years againe and again, west will hide criminals and stolen dozens billions $ againe.
West can not cheat and fool Ukraine again. About that West protected Ukraine so Ukraine NOT need thermonuclear bombs, and normal army in general.
After ocupation Crimea and Donbass West bought russian goods on 2 trillions $. And you NOT think THIS is mistake. West bought russian goods on 350+ billions $ after 24 feb 2022.
And even now West buy russian goods on 15 billions $ / month. And as usual West will help russian fascists. 1992 agression against Georgia and Moldowa, and ocupation. West invested and helped with tecnology, and approved the russian way to democracy!
1994-1996 genocide of chechens, and again West approved THIS.
1999-2000 genocide of chechens again, and West again approve.
2008 agression against Georgia. West approved again.
I can add more facts.
For example, what the end of story MH-17?
Any reliable sources confirming that western air defs are “shity”?
Did you read my post? All in. Patriot , 2 Nosams, IRIS can not shoot down old russian jets. Moscow use bombs more and more. If not trash - > then russian jets NOT use bombs. Read post Tom Cooper again.
We have too few western air defs, that is a problem! Not that they are bad or uneffective.
And, please, dont blame West, we have enough own fck ups: starting with Kuchma selling military equipment to every interested ending with Zelensky failing to finance Grom production, UAVs supply to ZSU or demining Chongar. Even now dozrns direct FSB spies in SBU were found by NABU and Mr Ze is ziplips about it.
When the War ends, we will all come to him with very unpleasant questions
do you bloody realise that patriot hasn't be installed yet, and that there're no enough batteries? Do you realise nasams/iris-t don't have the range to hit ruzzia's strategic bombers? What are bloody cry baby.
Western TV and blogs are shouting about Patriots during more then year. I do not understand you. You said OPPOSIT what millions blogs wrote during year. Almost every day , 13 months. Do you tell, that ALL this choir, fass and shouting - were and are aaaa.... just lies?! IF, western TV and blogs say about Patriots during more then year almost every day => Ukraine already got DOZENS Patriots. Moscow army widely and often use bombs. So all this dozens Patriots, Nasams, IRISs are TRASH, and suck
You're the screaming one here. If you can't really understand how media works, and read actual public information, then go back to reading comprehension and critical reasoning classes .
Though I think you're a ruzzian shill whose job is to spread fear and distrust.
here's a dose of reality for you, if you can read Ukrainian https://dou.ua/lenta/interviews/air-defense-of-ukraine/?from=comment-digest_post&utm_source=digest-comments&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=14122022
'Shity' - nope, but far too few.
Interview with the guy serving in the Ukrainian air defense https://dou.ua/lenta/interviews/air-defense-of-ukraine/?from=comment-digest_post&utm_source=digest-comments&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=14122022
Hello from Odesa)) We were noisy, air defense was working until 3 o'clock in the morning. They hunted for flying mopeds over the sea. Now we have a lot of rain in the south. Too much. This has not happened for a long time. God says take your time!
1 shahed costs .... who much? Do Ukraine people have endless anti air missiles?
12 Shakheds cost up to 600-700 TUSD, their effectiveness is somewhere by 10-15%
Where can i read about this 10-15% ? Efectiveness of Shakheds as you wrote
Thanks for proper transliteration of Ukrainian cities and regions, minor remark: Donbas is correct than Donbass
Short and great.
Cold shower.
Thank you! Keep doing great job.
Thanks Tom for your continuous flow of information. Hope this one be “the site” for you!
Any idea why Ukrainians are not using drones? In the last 6 months I’ve heard some promising rumors and have seen prototypes of small, long range drones but I can’t seem to find any report of them being produced or used
Proper time, proper place… be patient)
UA has perfect traditions in missiles and UAVs production
Becouse West sold or gifted to Ukraine 0 drones during 9 years of the war.
We don't have this kind of drones in the west
West sucks... ?
No lol. NATO has the strongest airforce in the world, we don't need cheap drones
Hm. So that why american army lose to mountaine tribes in Afhganistan and RUN. AND made a present to Taliban on 80 billions $. Huge amount of weapons to taliban.
Because there is a huge difference between, essentially, 'making a single or few prototypes' - and 'series production'.
Ukraine still has no large-scale series production of any of its UAVs.
I think you've made a typo here:
"the VKS never tried to establish more than aerial SUPREMACY over limited sectors of the frontlines".
Did you mean "... more than aerial SUPERIORITY"? I'm not sure what could be more than aerial supremacy :)
No. I meant: aerial supremacy.
Nobody in this war can claim for themselves any kind of 'superiority'.
Sie sind meine beste Quelle zum Ukrainekonflikt <3
Andere berichten ja immer noch das Wagner in Bachkmut angreift.
Tom,
It is hard to see how ZSU can carry succeful counterofence without robust air defence.
Very, very, very hard, indeed.
Thanks once again for your report. As always, more than welcome.
Today there is a lot of information in the media, the first Patriot systems have arrived in Ukraine. Could they help to change the situation you described?
Kind regards from Germany
I was reading about this Patriot .... during year. Hm. Why did they shout about 1 Patriot again and againe, almost every day?
Because one Patriot system - properly placed - can make the life rather hard for the russian aviation in a 150 km circle. For example, place one near Zaporizhya and it covers almost all Zaporizhya region and even parts of Doentsk and Kherson region.
Actually they talked about yesterday that in total there are three Patriot systems now in Ukraine, the Dutch and the US American systems arrived as well.
But in general that was exactly my question - can one (or three) Patriot systems significantly improve the situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces?
'Significantly', nope.
That would take about a dozen of systems.
Of course, one can 'play' with them. Combine them with other systems; temporarily deploy one or another 'closer to the frontline', to cause problems to the Russians etc. But, none of results are going to last for long enough, and if the war goes on - and it's going to go on, because the golden opportunity to shorten it was missed the last year - the Russians are going to have enough time to adapt (yes, even despite the System Putin).
Thus, the way things are, the safest solution is: the more, the merrier.
Talking about "ongoing war" - do you know military economist Marcus Keupp and his forecast that the war will end in October 2023 the latest due to the material losses of the russian terrorists? What he's saying makes sense to me.
https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/krieg-verlauf-ende-ukraine-niederlage-russland-100.html
It is making sense, but I am not buying any kind of predictions into 'war is going to end by....(enter date of your choice)'.
Can only guess that the PSU might first want to use them in same fashion like NASAMS and IRIS-T: for the defence of the power grid.
After all, it can't run any kind of offensives if the railway system isn't working, and this is depending on electricity.
Thanks for the report Tom, I look forward to them, I'm hoping Ukraine can augment their air defenses before the counter offensive
We are so fucked.
If you're an Ukrainian: not really. You need to learn to be patient at war, though.
If you're a Russian.... oh dear, 'fucked' is much too weak expression...
Why do you think Russians are really fucked? From your reports I get the impression they move slowly in the areas they want to engage. Also they have managed to get their air force more active and with the weather improving their UAVs are making an appearance again. Probably they are also preparing for the counteroffensive which is not imminent thus they have time.
Is there a significant issue the Russians have that I may have missed
Because Putin has already squandered his 'best' (the peace-time VSRF), and thus actually lost the conventional deterrent. What's left of the Russian armed forces nowadays is wreckage, fully exposing all the weaknesses of Russia: yes, it's still causing problems to Ukraine, but then because there is stills so much of it.
The only reason Ukrainians didn't liberate their country already 'by Christmas' is the shortsightedness of their own, and all the possible NATO-governments.
Questions:
1. According to the leaked slides titled "Consolidated UAF Air Defense", NATO has committed 12 Patriot launchers (2 batteries) and one SAMP-T battery as aid. The document is a little unclear, but also seems to estimate that Ukraine - at the end of February - had 28 batteries of S-300 "on hand" (seems very low if 3 TELAR per battery), and that 12 batteries of Patriot/SAMP-T would meet requirements. To replace S-300 coverage, wouldn't the number of long-range batteries need to be double that at least? And moreover, at least a thousand missiles per year?
2. The leaked report further estimates that Ukraine still has a number of S-125 batteries, and that these had 700 missiles in stock. How useful would these be against contemporary Sukhois? The Serbs did score a lucky hit against an F-117 a generation ago, and the platform is of the same generation as the Hawks Ukraine is also receiving.
3. The report also estimates that Ukraine has already exhausted its MANPADs, which seems unlikely. Thoughts?
4. Last spring/summer, GSUA claimed a number of shootdowns against inbound Kh-22. By the end of this year they were adamant that they had no platforms capable of intercepting Kh-22, and well-known presidential advisor Vladimir Arestovich was even sacked for commenting that the Dnipro apartment strike in January was caused by the remnants of a Kh-22 intercept. AFAIK S-300 or Buk should be able to target Kh-22 - but the number of missiles in the salvo needed to assure interception is probably higher than for ALCM. Do you suppose initially Ukraine did intercept Kh-22, but quickly stopped when it became clear how uneconomical the proposition was?
Thanks.
1.) Yes, and 'at mimimum'. Ukraine is huge: so huge that attempting to defend its airspace is like attempting to defend the airspace of the UK, France, and Poland - combined. That's not working with '1 battalion each' of Patriots, NASAMs and IRIS-T...
2.) The S-125 (aka SA-3) remains a very potent SAM - but its effective deployment nowadays is heavily dependent on experience of its operator. Thus, it's really about their Ukrainian crews: if they're 'good', they can be effective; if not, they're useless.
3.) AFAIK, 'exhausted' - are stocks of FIM-92 Stingers. The report didn't calculate all the other MANPADS in service with the ZSU.
4.) The answer is ironic.... even sarcastic and bordering on absurd. The Soviets and then the Russians were claiming that both the S-300 and the Buk were capable of intercepting ballistic missiles. Of course, in the case of the S-300, that depended on ammo (i.e. missiles) used by the S-300 (of which there is about a dozen of different variants, only 2 or 3 are capable of doing so). Thus, why should one have doubts Ukrainians at least tried to shot down quasi-ballistic missiles like Kh-22s?
AFAIK, Arestovich was/is wrong with many things, but was right in that case: the PSU did try to shot down that Kh-22 that was going for Dnipro, and the damage was caused by 'wreckage' of an intercepted missile. Problem: one can't simply 'stop' something moving at Mach 4+. But, people were fed up of him, 'in general'....now try to explain them anything in a sober fashion.... he had to go, 'instead'.
Regarding SAMs:
If Ukraine started with 250 S-300 launchers for example (a commonly-cited figure), and it's typical to stock 10 missiles per launcher, then at an average rate of 200 missiles/month it would make sense for fewer than 500 to remain after a full year, netting any one-time deliveries from other countries such as Slovakia. Russia probably maintained similar running estimates since last year.
Binkov on YT pointed out that Sea Sparrow compared to 9K37 Buk 9М38 has only 1/3 the weight (230kg vs. 690kg), half the range (20km vs. 35km), and half the operational ceiling (11km vs. 22km), so modifying Buk to carry Sea Sparrow would not replace its full functionality as a mid-range SAM.
It seems to me that Ukraine, both politically and in light of increasing difficulties in air defense, may have 'no choice' but to launch a major offensive before summer, ready or not.