Hello everybody! A relatively short one for today, to catch with different ‘news’ (as far as they are such), and respond to certain commentary. AIR WAR Some of military commentators in Ukraine are questioning why do I write that, ‘Ukraine lost many aircraft and almost exhausted its supply of surface-to-air missiles’ (SAMs), plus that it’s, ‘at risk of losing dominance of its airspace’.
Hi, Tom. Thank for your endless illustration of russia-Ukraine war. Could you, please, more precisely tell how mitigate or avert the risk of those flying bomds such as FAB500 or UPAB?
West destroyed 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs. And huge amount of other weapons.
Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS suck. Rus army uses bombs everywhere it want, from Summy along all frontline to Kherson. Approx midnight i heard some powerful bursts, it may be bombs, too powerful for 155m and Grad and Uragan. After them were 1000+ bursts of Grad, mortar mines, different shells - all the night. Couldn't sleep. Worry about remaining glasses in windows. Wider glasses were bursted off long ago. So. Enemy began using bombs - this is the most ominous sign. The end for millions lives, if nothing change. Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS are so trash, that can't even shoot down ancient russian jets, this big targets on radars on 3000-12000m altitudes - most convenient for these anti air systems.
Hello from Odesa)) We were noisy, air defense was working until 3 o'clock in the morning. They hunted for flying mopeds over the sea. Now we have a lot of rain in the south. Too much. This has not happened for a long time. God says take your time!
Any idea why Ukrainians are not using drones? In the last 6 months I’ve heard some promising rumors and have seen prototypes of small, long range drones but I can’t seem to find any report of them being produced or used
Thanks once again for your report. As always, more than welcome.
Today there is a lot of information in the media, the first Patriot systems have arrived in Ukraine. Could they help to change the situation you described?
1. According to the leaked slides titled "Consolidated UAF Air Defense", NATO has committed 12 Patriot launchers (2 batteries) and one SAMP-T battery as aid. The document is a little unclear, but also seems to estimate that Ukraine - at the end of February - had 28 batteries of S-300 "on hand" (seems very low if 3 TELAR per battery), and that 12 batteries of Patriot/SAMP-T would meet requirements. To replace S-300 coverage, wouldn't the number of long-range batteries need to be double that at least? And moreover, at least a thousand missiles per year?
2. The leaked report further estimates that Ukraine still has a number of S-125 batteries, and that these had 700 missiles in stock. How useful would these be against contemporary Sukhois? The Serbs did score a lucky hit against an F-117 a generation ago, and the platform is of the same generation as the Hawks Ukraine is also receiving.
3. The report also estimates that Ukraine has already exhausted its MANPADs, which seems unlikely. Thoughts?
4. Last spring/summer, GSUA claimed a number of shootdowns against inbound Kh-22. By the end of this year they were adamant that they had no platforms capable of intercepting Kh-22, and well-known presidential advisor Vladimir Arestovich was even sacked for commenting that the Dnipro apartment strike in January was caused by the remnants of a Kh-22 intercept. AFAIK S-300 or Buk should be able to target Kh-22 - but the number of missiles in the salvo needed to assure interception is probably higher than for ALCM. Do you suppose initially Ukraine did intercept Kh-22, but quickly stopped when it became clear how uneconomical the proposition was?
If Ukraine started with 250 S-300 launchers for example (a commonly-cited figure), and it's typical to stock 10 missiles per launcher, then at an average rate of 200 missiles/month it would make sense for fewer than 500 to remain after a full year, netting any one-time deliveries from other countries such as Slovakia. Russia probably maintained similar running estimates since last year.
Binkov on YT pointed out that Sea Sparrow compared to 9K37 Buk 9М38 has only 1/3 the weight (230kg vs. 690kg), half the range (20km vs. 35km), and half the operational ceiling (11km vs. 22km), so modifying Buk to carry Sea Sparrow would not replace its full functionality as a mid-range SAM.
It seems to me that Ukraine, both politically and in light of increasing difficulties in air defense, may have 'no choice' but to launch a major offensive before summer, ready or not.
Excuse me, but I cannot find the meaning of UMPK acronym
Hi, Tom. Thank for your endless illustration of russia-Ukraine war. Could you, please, more precisely tell how mitigate or avert the risk of those flying bomds such as FAB500 or UPAB?
West destroyed 2400 ukrainian thermonuclear bombs. And huge amount of other weapons.
Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS suck. Rus army uses bombs everywhere it want, from Summy along all frontline to Kherson. Approx midnight i heard some powerful bursts, it may be bombs, too powerful for 155m and Grad and Uragan. After them were 1000+ bursts of Grad, mortar mines, different shells - all the night. Couldn't sleep. Worry about remaining glasses in windows. Wider glasses were bursted off long ago. So. Enemy began using bombs - this is the most ominous sign. The end for millions lives, if nothing change. Patriot, 2 Nasams, IRIS are so trash, that can't even shoot down ancient russian jets, this big targets on radars on 3000-12000m altitudes - most convenient for these anti air systems.
Hello from Odesa)) We were noisy, air defense was working until 3 o'clock in the morning. They hunted for flying mopeds over the sea. Now we have a lot of rain in the south. Too much. This has not happened for a long time. God says take your time!
Thanks for proper transliteration of Ukrainian cities and regions, minor remark: Donbas is correct than Donbass
Short and great.
Cold shower.
Thank you! Keep doing great job.
Thanks Tom for your continuous flow of information. Hope this one be “the site” for you!
Any idea why Ukrainians are not using drones? In the last 6 months I’ve heard some promising rumors and have seen prototypes of small, long range drones but I can’t seem to find any report of them being produced or used
I think you've made a typo here:
"the VKS never tried to establish more than aerial SUPREMACY over limited sectors of the frontlines".
Did you mean "... more than aerial SUPERIORITY"? I'm not sure what could be more than aerial supremacy :)
Sie sind meine beste Quelle zum Ukrainekonflikt <3
Andere berichten ja immer noch das Wagner in Bachkmut angreift.
Tom,
It is hard to see how ZSU can carry succeful counterofence without robust air defence.
Thanks once again for your report. As always, more than welcome.
Today there is a lot of information in the media, the first Patriot systems have arrived in Ukraine. Could they help to change the situation you described?
Kind regards from Germany
Thanks for the report Tom, I look forward to them, I'm hoping Ukraine can augment their air defenses before the counter offensive
We are so fucked.
Questions:
1. According to the leaked slides titled "Consolidated UAF Air Defense", NATO has committed 12 Patriot launchers (2 batteries) and one SAMP-T battery as aid. The document is a little unclear, but also seems to estimate that Ukraine - at the end of February - had 28 batteries of S-300 "on hand" (seems very low if 3 TELAR per battery), and that 12 batteries of Patriot/SAMP-T would meet requirements. To replace S-300 coverage, wouldn't the number of long-range batteries need to be double that at least? And moreover, at least a thousand missiles per year?
2. The leaked report further estimates that Ukraine still has a number of S-125 batteries, and that these had 700 missiles in stock. How useful would these be against contemporary Sukhois? The Serbs did score a lucky hit against an F-117 a generation ago, and the platform is of the same generation as the Hawks Ukraine is also receiving.
3. The report also estimates that Ukraine has already exhausted its MANPADs, which seems unlikely. Thoughts?
4. Last spring/summer, GSUA claimed a number of shootdowns against inbound Kh-22. By the end of this year they were adamant that they had no platforms capable of intercepting Kh-22, and well-known presidential advisor Vladimir Arestovich was even sacked for commenting that the Dnipro apartment strike in January was caused by the remnants of a Kh-22 intercept. AFAIK S-300 or Buk should be able to target Kh-22 - but the number of missiles in the salvo needed to assure interception is probably higher than for ALCM. Do you suppose initially Ukraine did intercept Kh-22, but quickly stopped when it became clear how uneconomical the proposition was?
Thanks.
Regarding SAMs:
If Ukraine started with 250 S-300 launchers for example (a commonly-cited figure), and it's typical to stock 10 missiles per launcher, then at an average rate of 200 missiles/month it would make sense for fewer than 500 to remain after a full year, netting any one-time deliveries from other countries such as Slovakia. Russia probably maintained similar running estimates since last year.
Binkov on YT pointed out that Sea Sparrow compared to 9K37 Buk 9М38 has only 1/3 the weight (230kg vs. 690kg), half the range (20km vs. 35km), and half the operational ceiling (11km vs. 22km), so modifying Buk to carry Sea Sparrow would not replace its full functionality as a mid-range SAM.
It seems to me that Ukraine, both politically and in light of increasing difficulties in air defense, may have 'no choice' but to launch a major offensive before summer, ready or not.