Good morning everybody! It’s Sunday. There’s sunny and unusually warm weather outside: we’ve had some 18°C yesterday - in the middle of February. But, you know, ‘there’s no global warming’, and ‘Earth is flat’, of course, and I’m digressing, right at the start…
Tough times Tom, but your usual objective review of the available evidence is refreshing. And needed, in this cloudy world of persistent disinformation and corrupt self-interest.
Thank you for the update. First, please tell your man Gunner here, he dont need to force ME to read at gun point. I mean he is doing his best, but I read volutarily. Sp send him somewhere else, or cut the expenses. I know hotels and bars are expensive in Norway, and maybe MILF could make use of him?
Regarding your reports today, very interesting. In many ways positive reading. No parade of prisoners, no train of vehicles. Ukraine managed a withdrawal without horrifying looses, although it was obviously a lossfilled affair. But yes I guess the summary you gave is presice enough, both sides licking their wounds. The question is of course what happens next, but there is obviously no collapse.
A comment on Rommel and his leadership. I will accept that your descriotion is right. But delegating authorithy to subordinates, trusting them and letting them do their job and not fucking up their Work? Thats leadership in my book. Albeit sligthly different from what he usually gets credited for.
Yup. No parades there. (Well, there will be one on the Red Square... on 1 May... probably...)
Regarding Rommel and 'leadership': not sure about the latter. From reading their own accounts, it transpires his subordinates were usually left with no other choice but to act on their own, because he was 'too busy'. '
...usually with re-enacting his times of a Strosstruppführer from the WWI...
Ok, havent read the accounts of the subordinates. Memories written by generals are in general self serving. (Hmmm to be fair to generals most are..) But I accept the verdict.
I mean, Rommel didn't survive long enough to burnish his reputation with a fully-realized postwar memoir, but what he did write was so dismissive about logistics and those involved in them it was hard to take him seriously after. A great team-builder, Rommel, but in half the major battles he was on sick leave.
Still less annoying than Patton, who stole all his ideas from Germans.
Ah well, Russia trolls need to earn their pay somehow, so your comment section seems to be a good place to do so. Otherwise they'll get mobilized. :)
I think everyone with a brain understands that you're relaying to us a summarized version of what your contacts are saying. You've explained it perfectly that even your contacts are mostly guessing and estimating themselves especially when it comes to enemy casualties but even when it comes to other squads in their own group.
Quite frankly if Ukraine can inflict such massive casualties on Russia when fighting at a disadvantage I don't see why Avdiivka needed to be abandoned in the first place. But the important thing is, overall the retreat is successful (it's very true what you say that we'd know otherwise) and together twith the previous Russian assaults, it should have substantially depleted Russian forces.
russians basically gathered all what they have from other frontlines and launched never ending assault in Avdiivka. Add here ukrainian artillery shortage with russians launching 60-80 KAB500/1000 per day, and you will understand why ZSU withdrawed from Avdiivka. There was no point to just sit there, while russians bomb them to oblivion.
Your commentary is my first stop every day it appears. Re: the desert campaign in WW2. After all the hoo-ha about the Zaluzny/Sirskiy it's worth reflecting on the amount of General shuffling that preceded Montgomery's appointment. Another wildly overrated general whose main attribute in the desert was extreme caution. Not that that's necessarily negative. Then there was "Operation Market Garden"...
Very sorry for the wounded left behind, but medevac is sure not an easy task in such a situation.
In russian "hospitals" they will probably die: those hospitals don't cure almost anyone. It makes no sense to heal someone who is going to die in the next week in another russian-style attack.
Thanks Tom, your recent posts on casualties are very interesting. It's pretty obvious that if heavy equipment losses are visually confirmed to be about 8:1 (vsrf:zsu), then the personnel loss ratio will be similar. Avdiivka sounds like a perfect example of a pyrrhic victory.
1. Would you be able to comment on the new zsu high command? Syrskyi replaced everyone in the gen staff. I've heard a lot of positives about these new appointments.
2. Do you know who, in the ZSU, is in charge of the Siversk and Kupyansk defence? The Siversk front just does not move and it's not for the lack of VSRF's trying.
They lack equipment to field a larger force on the frontlines, it doesn't mean that the brigades that are fighting, from armoured brigades become infantry brigades. The VSRF also don't fight in nominal strength. Also, even if that was true, it's not going to be many times more. The zsu casualties will still be multiple times lower.
Syrskiy was the best candidate on Commander in chief position of AFU, because he hates his russian family with all his heart. Don't think it's worth to expect exchange of them, as Ukraine did with Pudding's crony highest ranking russian agent in Ukraine Medvedchuk ("Sokolovskiy"), for some of the russian captives soon.
Wise career advice from one of my mentors (and this from pre-internet days ca 1980!): "I'd rather have people saying "That bastard Michael Nicholson" than "Who is Michael Nicholson?""
At Robotyne, the Russians apparently sent inferior tanks to do a "reconnaissance with combat". Now they are intensively shelling Ukrainian positions with artillery.
Thanks Tom for your work. This “Adiviidka Operational resume” is true gold (if you’re interested in try to know the real situation, and no any self interested BS Media info).
Well I appreciate your reporting Tom, even if you are a paid up member of the GRU, FSB, MI5, Mossad, CIA etc etc 😁
....and Mukhbarat... and my favourite employer: the MILF...
(NO! Not that 'MILF' you think, but the Moro Islamic Liberation Front of the Philippines... oh dear.. what naughty minds are gathering around here...)
😹
I got paid by MILF also, but not for writing...
Oh, those witty Philippine islamists !
Спасибо, Том.
Tough times Tom, but your usual objective review of the available evidence is refreshing. And needed, in this cloudy world of persistent disinformation and corrupt self-interest.
Great writing as always, thanks. And I love your sarcasm 😊
Thank you for the update. First, please tell your man Gunner here, he dont need to force ME to read at gun point. I mean he is doing his best, but I read volutarily. Sp send him somewhere else, or cut the expenses. I know hotels and bars are expensive in Norway, and maybe MILF could make use of him?
Regarding your reports today, very interesting. In many ways positive reading. No parade of prisoners, no train of vehicles. Ukraine managed a withdrawal without horrifying looses, although it was obviously a lossfilled affair. But yes I guess the summary you gave is presice enough, both sides licking their wounds. The question is of course what happens next, but there is obviously no collapse.
A comment on Rommel and his leadership. I will accept that your descriotion is right. But delegating authorithy to subordinates, trusting them and letting them do their job and not fucking up their Work? Thats leadership in my book. Albeit sligthly different from what he usually gets credited for.
Yup. No parades there. (Well, there will be one on the Red Square... on 1 May... probably...)
Regarding Rommel and 'leadership': not sure about the latter. From reading their own accounts, it transpires his subordinates were usually left with no other choice but to act on their own, because he was 'too busy'. '
...usually with re-enacting his times of a Strosstruppführer from the WWI...
Ok, havent read the accounts of the subordinates. Memories written by generals are in general self serving. (Hmmm to be fair to generals most are..) But I accept the verdict.
Great rulers are hardly known by their subjects,
Then come those the people draw near and praise,
Then those the people hold in fear,
Then those the people revile.
When one lacks trust, one finds no trust.
Reluctantly, without boasting;
Perform actions, accomplish deeds;
The people will say it happened naturally.
(Tao Te Ching 17)
I mean, Rommel didn't survive long enough to burnish his reputation with a fully-realized postwar memoir, but what he did write was so dismissive about logistics and those involved in them it was hard to take him seriously after. A great team-builder, Rommel, but in half the major battles he was on sick leave.
Still less annoying than Patton, who stole all his ideas from Germans.
And also choosing good subordinates.
Ah well, Russia trolls need to earn their pay somehow, so your comment section seems to be a good place to do so. Otherwise they'll get mobilized. :)
I think everyone with a brain understands that you're relaying to us a summarized version of what your contacts are saying. You've explained it perfectly that even your contacts are mostly guessing and estimating themselves especially when it comes to enemy casualties but even when it comes to other squads in their own group.
Quite frankly if Ukraine can inflict such massive casualties on Russia when fighting at a disadvantage I don't see why Avdiivka needed to be abandoned in the first place. But the important thing is, overall the retreat is successful (it's very true what you say that we'd know otherwise) and together twith the previous Russian assaults, it should have substantially depleted Russian forces.
russians basically gathered all what they have from other frontlines and launched never ending assault in Avdiivka. Add here ukrainian artillery shortage with russians launching 60-80 KAB500/1000 per day, and you will understand why ZSU withdrawed from Avdiivka. There was no point to just sit there, while russians bomb them to oblivion.
It's a shame that ZSU wasn't able to use some Patriot missiles to inflict heavy losses on VKS during the last week...
Thanks Tom,
always good to have a structured thought through blog from you on a weekend.
Happy Sunday!
Your commentary is my first stop every day it appears. Re: the desert campaign in WW2. After all the hoo-ha about the Zaluzny/Sirskiy it's worth reflecting on the amount of General shuffling that preceded Montgomery's appointment. Another wildly overrated general whose main attribute in the desert was extreme caution. Not that that's necessarily negative. Then there was "Operation Market Garden"...
Life sucks when you can't reload.
Thanks, an intelligent, interesting and superbly written post.
Thanks Tom, sensible as always and much appreciated.
Very sorry for the wounded left behind, but medevac is sure not an easy task in such a situation.
In russian "hospitals" they will probably die: those hospitals don't cure almost anyone. It makes no sense to heal someone who is going to die in the next week in another russian-style attack.
Thanks Tom, your recent posts on casualties are very interesting. It's pretty obvious that if heavy equipment losses are visually confirmed to be about 8:1 (vsrf:zsu), then the personnel loss ratio will be similar. Avdiivka sounds like a perfect example of a pyrrhic victory.
1. Would you be able to comment on the new zsu high command? Syrskyi replaced everyone in the gen staff. I've heard a lot of positives about these new appointments.
2. Do you know who, in the ZSU, is in charge of the Siversk and Kupyansk defence? The Siversk front just does not move and it's not for the lack of VSRF's trying.
"It's pretty obvious that if heavy equipment losses are visually confirmed to be about 8:1 (vsrf:zsu), then the personnel loss ratio will be similar."
-- Flawed logic. ZSU lacks equipment, thus its personnel losses should be higher.
They lack equipment to field a larger force on the frontlines, it doesn't mean that the brigades that are fighting, from armoured brigades become infantry brigades. The VSRF also don't fight in nominal strength. Also, even if that was true, it's not going to be many times more. The zsu casualties will still be multiple times lower.
On the contrary... failed russian attacks were made lately by foot soldiers with no vehicle support... so even higher personnel losses.
So we cannot estimate personnel losses from vehicle losses
it´s for sure one of the useful elements
Syrskiy was the best candidate on Commander in chief position of AFU, because he hates his russian family with all his heart. Don't think it's worth to expect exchange of them, as Ukraine did with Pudding's crony highest ranking russian agent in Ukraine Medvedchuk ("Sokolovskiy"), for some of the russian captives soon.
If only Rommel had captured some water, food and fuel from the British, instead of stealing it from the Italian depots...
Wise career advice from one of my mentors (and this from pre-internet days ca 1980!): "I'd rather have people saying "That bastard Michael Nicholson" than "Who is Michael Nicholson?""
At Robotyne, the Russians apparently sent inferior tanks to do a "reconnaissance with combat". Now they are intensively shelling Ukrainian positions with artillery.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1759185969591324939?s=20
Thanks Tom for your work. This “Adiviidka Operational resume” is true gold (if you’re interested in try to know the real situation, and no any self interested BS Media info).
Food for thought, IMHO.